空氣污染的國際溢出效應(yīng)：來自死亡和健康數(shù)據(jù)的證據(jù) International Spillover Effects of Air Pollution：Evidence from Mortality and Health Data

NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIESNTERNATIONALSPILLOVEREFFECTSOFAIRPOLLUTIONEVIDENCEFROMMORTALITYANDHEALTHDATAeooichiroItoKotamarthiWorkingPaper30830http//papers/w30830NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCHCambridgeMA8January3WewouldliketothankKeisukeItoandDavidXuforexcellentresearchassistance,andSeverinBorenstein,SusannaBerkouwer,JudsonBoomhower,MaureenCropper,OlivierDeschênes,DaveDonaldsonMichaelGreenstoneRemaHannaDanaeHernndezCortsKelseyJack,RyanKellogg,ShanjunLi,KyleMeng,JoeShapiro,ShaodaWang,andseminarparticipantsatUCBerkeleyEnergyCamp,theGriffinConferencesonSocioeconomicEffectsofAirPollution,andtheCoaseProjectConferencefortheirhelpfulcomments.WegratefullyacknowledgefinancialsupportfromtheGlobalEnergyChallengebyArgonneNationalLaboratoryandtheEnergyPolicyInstituteattheUniversityofChicagoandtheGriffinAppliedEconomicsIncubatorontheGlobalEnergyChallenge.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.?2023bySeonminWillHeo,KoichiroIto,andRaoKotamarthi.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including?notice,isgiventothesource.1.本附加與原報告無關(guān);互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公開數(shù)據(jù)；3.本資料在“行業(yè)報告資源群”和“知識星球4.本資料僅限社群內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)，如需它用請聯(lián)系1.進群即領(lǐng)福利《報告與資源合編》，內(nèi)有近百行業(yè)、上萬份行2.每日分享學(xué)習(xí)最新6+份精選行研資料；3.群友交流，群主免費提供相關(guān)領(lǐng)域行研資料。效業(yè)研究、運營管理、價值傳播等計劃、蓋科技、金融、教育、互聯(lián)InternationalSpilloverEffectsofAirPollution:EvidencefromMortalityandHealthDatanWillHeoKoichiroItoandRaoKotamarthiNBERWorkingPaperNo.30830January3JELNoQ53STRACTWestudytheinternationalspillovereffectsofairpollutionbydevelopingaframeworkthatintegratesrecentadvancesinatmosphericscienceintoeconometricestimationwithmicrodataonmortalityandhealth.Combiningtransboundaryparticletrajectorydatawiththeuniverseofindividual-levelmortalityandemergencyroomvisitdatainSouthKorea,wefindthattransboundaryairpollutionfromChinasignificantlyincreasesmortalityandmorbidityinSouthKorea.Usingtheseestimates,weshowthatarecentChineseenvironmentalpolicy“waronpollution”generatedasubstantialinternationalspilloverbenefit.Finally,weexamineChina’sstrategicpollutionreductionsandprovidetheirimplicationsforthepotentialCoasianbargaining.eoUniversityofCaliforniaSantaBarbaraNorthHallBarbaraCAuoichiroItoHarrisSchoolofPublicPolicyUniversityofChicagoChicago,IL60637andNBERito@KotamarthiArgonneNationalLaboratoryvrkotamarthianlgov11IntroductionldIntheUnitedStates,airqualityhasimprovedsubstantiallyinthelastfewdecadeslargelythankstoaluInthispaper,westudytheinternationalspillovereffectsofairpollutionandexaminetheextenttoawithhedpropertiesbythespreadofrebyitself2romChinaplaysasignicantroleinthelevelofPMinSouthKoreaInEastAsiafallandwinterareknowntoyingthesboundaryagmincreaseinPMinSouthKoreancitiesonaverageTheemortalitytimatesindicatethatagmincreaseineaseinhourlymortalityinSouthionpeoplefortheoverallpopulationanincreaseinannualmortalitybypermillionpeople).Thiseffectimpliesa0.6%increaseinmortalitywithrespecttoa1μg/m3increaseinys3Inadditiontotheimpactonmortality,airpollutioncouldalsoincreasemorbidity(Barwick,Li,RaosWencreasemortalityandmorbidityinSouthKorea.Akeypolicyimplicationofthese?ndingsisthatacountry’stalregulationsintheeconomicsliteratureTohighlightthispointweconsideranimplicationofaprominentnin4fduringthewaronaRelatedliteratureandourcontributions—Ourstudybuildsonandcontributestofourstrandsoftheuchhallengeby5inaHeuteleifestimatethemortalityeffectofPMfortheelderlyintheUnitedStatesdyriesers62DataandDescriptiveEvidence2.1PM2.5inSouthKoreaandChinantiouss7FigureA).inaandtheseasonalwesterliescanbeahan2.2TransboundaryAirPollutionfromChinatoSouthKoreairpollution.daryer8theeawertsionsintotalhourlytrajectoriesxdaysxyearsxcitiesinSouthKoreaThisisacomputationally-intensivedatacollection,butweuseparallelcomputingtoobtainmillionsofdry7Forthemeteorologicaldata,weusetheNCEP/NCARReanalysisdata.WeincludeitsdescriptioninAppendixA.9achgridollutionalstoPMinBeijinginhourtaandhowitaffectstheimatethisrolsis2.3MortalityinSouthKoreaWecollectSouthKoreanmortalitymicrodatafromtheMicroDataIntegratedService(MDIS),whichis2.4EmergencyHospitalAdmissionsinSouthKoreadistrictanddaily2.5OtherDatadthattheresultsarerobusttoheightsovermetersandtheKleibergen-PaaprkWaldF-statisticishighestwith500meters.rajectoriesinChinatheheightintheoriginlocationofthebackwardtrajectoryriginlocationproducesthehighestKleibergenPaaprkWaldFstatisticinourrststage2.6SummaryStatistics3EmpiricalAnalysisandResultsairpollutiononmortalityinSouthKorea.Finally,insection3.3,weruntheinstrumentalvariable(IV)3.1First-stageRegressionPMct=αTransboundaryPMct+XctV+uct,whereXctisavectorofcontrolvariablesforcitycandhourtanductistheerrorterm.WeincludeaxedsumptionisthattheerrortermisuncorrelatedwiththetransboundaryairpollutiongiventhecontrolalizePMctbycitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitybydayof3.2Reduced-formEstimationJMortalityct=βjTransboundaryPMc,t?j+Xctγ+uct,(2)j=0concurrent(j=0)andlagged(j>0)transboundaryairpollutiontoestimateβjforj=1,...,J.TheseleAcludetheaverageofhourlyludeaiumlongifferentfrominternationalairpollutionspillovereffects,Deryugina,Heutel,Miller,MolitorandReif(2019)?ndthatehby3.3InstrumentalVariablesEstimationJMortalityct=φjPMc,t?j+XctV+uct,(3)j=0elatasy3.4MortalityImpactsbyAgeGrouped3.5ImpactsonEmergencyRoomVisitsInadditiontoitsimpactonmortality,airpollutioncouldincreasemorbidity(Barwicketal.,2018).InomeleWe?ndthattransboundaryPM2.5resultsinincreasesinERvisitsforasthmaandrhinitis.Wedo4PolicyImplications4.1InternationalSpilloverBene?tsofEnvironmentalRegulationominentenvironmentalpolicyrecentlyimelsoneduthnn4.2StrategicReductionsinAirPollutionandImplicationsforCoasianBargainingcnetiontoUSDinonbyderetheyreducedairpollutionforthe“waronpollution.”Asaresult,theinternationalspilloverbene?twennsmethatwasrecommendedbytheWorldHealthOrganizationinitsglobalairqualityguidelinesin2019(10μg/m3fortheannual5ConclusionctsofaireReferencesRaoandNahimZahurThemorbiditycostofairpollutionressionintheUnitedStates.”AmericanEconomicJournal:AppliedEconomics,15(1):442–73.Bedi,ArjunS,MarcosYNakaguma,BrandonJRestrepo,andMatthiasRieger.2021.“Particlepol-lutionandcognition:EvidencefromsensitivecognitivetestsinBrazil.”JournaloftheAssociationofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists,8(3):443–474.Bhardwaj,Piyush,SeoJKi,YounHKim,JungHWoo,ChangKSong,SoonYPark,andChulHBorgschulte,Mark,DavidMolitor,andEricZou.2022.“Airpollutionandthelabormarket:EvidencehBorgschulte,M,DMolitor,andEYZou.Forthcoming.“Airpollutionandthelabormarket:Evidencefromwild?resmoke.”ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics.Chang,TomY,JoshuaGraffZivin,TalGross,andMatthewNeidell.2019.“TheeffectofpollutiononnterworkersinChinaAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedicsChay,KennethY,andMichaelGreenstone.2003.“Theimpactofairpollutiononinfantmortality:ev-sChen,Yuyu,AvrahamEbenstein,MichaelGreenstone,andHongbinLi.2013.“Evidenceontheimpactabledeclineinthepollution-mortalityrelationshipinHongKong.”JournalofenvironmentaleconomicsndmanagementaseRHTheProblemofSocialCostTheJournalofLawEconomicsDeryugina,Tatyana,GarthHeutel,NolanHMiller,DavidMolitor,andJulianReif.2019.“Themor-wDeschenes,Olivier,andEnricoMoretti.2009.“Extremeweatherevents,mortality,andmigration.”TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,91(4):659–681.runeconomicconsequencesofhighnpollutionAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomics,8(4):36–65.Eguiluz-Gracia,Ibon,AlexanderGMathioudakis,SabineBartel,SusanneJHVijverberg,ElaineFuertes,PasqualeComberiati,YutongSamuelCai,PeterValentinTomazic,ZuzanaDiamant,J?r-hEdwardARubinandKatieWrightAirPollutionCoBenetsandRegulatoryRebound.”PresentationatUCBerkeleyEnergyCamp.ingField.”JournalofEconomicLiterature,53(1):5–42.GreenstoneMichaelandRemaHanna014.“Environmentalregulations,airandwaterpollution,andinfantmortalityinIndiaAmericanEconomicReview,104(10):3038–72.GreenstoneMichaelGuojunHeShanjunLiandEricYongchenZou2021.“China’swaronpollution:Greenstone,Michael,JanhaviNilekani,RohiniPande,NicholasRyan,AnantSudarshan,andAnishtterpollution.”EconomicandPoliticalWeekly,40–46.aturalexicoCityJournalofPublicEconomicsHan,Xiao,JuzhenCai,MeigenZhang,andXiaofeiWang.2021.“NumericalsimulationofinterannualAtmosphericEnvironment,256:118440.ingZhangWateringdownenvironmentalregulationinChinaTheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,135(4):2135–2185.Hernandez-Cortes,Danae,andKyleCMeng.2023.“DoenvironmentalmarketscauseenvironmentalHsiang,Solomon,JaecheolLee,andAndrewWilson.2022.“SimultaneousEstimationofDamagefromoundaryandDomesticAirPollutionPresentationattheCoaseProjectConferenceIto,Koichiro,andShuangZhang.2020.“WillingnesstoPayforCleanAir:EvidencefromAirPuri?erissue.”JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement,86(C):1–7.Jayachandran,Seema.2009.“Airqualityandearly-lifemortalityevidencefromIndonesia’swild?res.”JournalofHumanresources,44(4):916–954.Jia,Ruixue,andHyejinKu.2019.“IsChina’spollutiontheculpritforthechokingofSouthKorea?Kim,Ye-Shin,Yong-JinLee,Hoa-SungPark,andDong-ChunShin.2003.“Risk-BasedDamageCostEstimationonMortalityDuetoEnvironmentalProblems.”JournalofPreventiveMedicineandPublicKim,Yong-Ik,andSun-MinKim.2021.2020NationalHealthInsuranceStatisticalYearbook.HealthceKuiper,IngridNordeide,CecilieSvanes,IanaMarkevych,SimoneAccordini,RandiJBertelsen,LennartBr?b?ck,JesperHeileChristensen,BertilForsberg,ThomasHalvorsen,JoachimHein-nessinrelationtoasthmarhinitisandlLee,Hyung-Min,RokjinJPark,DavenKHenze,SeungunLee,ChangsubShim,Hye-JungShin,KwangJooMoonandJungHunWooPM.5sourceattributionforSeoulinMayfrom2009Lee,Seungmin,Chang-HoiHo,YunGonLee,Hyoung-JinChoi,andChang-KeunSong.2013.“In?u-Lee,YongJin,YoungWookLim,JiYeonYang,ChangSooKim,YoungChulShin,andDongChunKoreaJournalofEnvironmentalManagement,92(3):603–609.Lipscomb,Molly,andAhmedMush?qMobarak.2016.“Decentralizationandpollutionspillovers:evi-MicroDataIntegratedService.1997–2019.“CausesofDeathStatistics(PublicUse).”/10.23333/P.101054.001.(AccessedMarch23,2022).Murphy,KevinM,andRobertHTopel.2006.“Thevalueofhealthandlongevity.”JournalofPoliticalNationalHealthInsuranceSharingService.2013–2017.“EnvironmentalIllnessDatabase.”(AccessedOh,Hye-Ryun,Chang-HoiHo,JinwonKim,DeliangChen,SeungminLee,Yong-SangChoi,Lim-sphericEnvironment3–30.Shapiro,JosephS,andReedWalker.2018.“WhyispollutionfromUSmanufacturingdeclining?ThemicReviewnomicReviewStein,AF,RolandRDraxler,GlennDRolph,BarbaraJBStunder,MDCohen,andFongNgan.2015.“NOAA’sHYSPLITatmospherictransportanddispersionmodelingsystem.”BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety,96(12):2059–2077.Wang,Daoping,DaboGuan,ShupengZhu,MichaelMacKinnon,GuannanGeng,QiangZhang,HeranZheng,TianyangLei,ShuaiShao,PengGong,etal..2021.“EconomicfootprintofCaliforniawildresinNatureSustainability60.WorldBank.2022.StrivingforCleanAir:AirPollutionandPublicHealthinSouthAsia.Washington,D.C.:WorldBankGroup./curated/en/099030312132233780/P1682370b4ac4a0270ac2702e1cfb704198.China NorthwestRegionsinSouthKrea SoutheastonsChina NorthwestRegionsinSouthKrea SoutheastonsFigures502015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-01Note:This?gureillustratestheevolutionofmonthlyaveragehourlyPM2.5.TheNorthwestregioninSouthKoreaisde?nedouthKoreathathavemorethanorequaltooffrequencyoftrajectoriescomingfromChinainFigureTheLatitudeLatitudengulanghaiTimeofarrival2015?06?1408PM2015?07?1210AM2016?01?1411PMLongitudeuaryiesmChinaLatitudeLatitudengShijiazhuangguiXingtaiHotananghaiPercent(%)86420E09E1009E1109E1209E1309ELongitudeyinPM2.5inSouthKorea(μg/m)PM2.5inSouthKoreaResidualTransboundaryPM2.5(μg/m)PM2.5inSouthKorea(μg/m)PM2.5inSouthKoreaResidualTransboundaryPM2.5(μg/m)fromChinatoSouthKoreaTransboundaryPM2.5fromChinatoSouthKoreaResidual402000004020-2000-5000-50insofsizePanelBplotsuthKoreaoncitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitybydayofweektybytemperaturequartilexedeffectsagainstbinsofresidualsfromaregressionoftransboundaryPMoncitybyyearbymonthxedeffects,city-by-dayofweek?xedeffects,city-by-rainfallMarginaleffectoftransboundaryPMonmortality.2MarginaleffectoftransboundaryPMonmortality.0123456789Weeksinlag00-15-10-5In-Chinaratio(lowest)In-Chinaratio(low)In-Chinaratio(high)In-Chinaratio(highest)20152016201720182019tioTheethelatitudePMg/m3)inChinesecitiesPM2.5(μg/m3)inKoreancitiesAtopichinitisCYear-MonthFEMonth-CityFEDayofweek-CityFERainfallquartile-CityFETemperaturequartileCityFERainfalldecile-CityFEecileCityFERainfallquartileFEderlyantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionderlyantentllregressionsincludecitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitynderlyantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionderlyantategoryAllcolumnsincludecitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitybydayofweek?xedeffects,city-by-rainfallquartile?xedeffects,city-by-temperaturequartile?xedeffects,andareweightedbyoupleantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionagegrouphinitisAtopicleffectasincreaseinERvisitsMarginaleffectonannualERvisits/millionhinitisAtopicleffectasincreaseinERvisitsMarginaleffectonannualERvisits/millionOverallInfantYouthAdultElderly<11-1920-64>65ortstheper-yearspilloverbene?tforSouthKoreain2019USbilliondollars.Wecalculatethebene?tsbasedontheestimatesoftheeductionhinagmAppendixADetailsoftheHYSPLITmodelBriefdescriptionoftheHYSPLITmodelgthemeantoftrajectoryanalysisisusefulfordeterminingtheparticledispersion,whilebacktrajectoryanalysisisusefulfordeterminingtheofpollutantsFigureA.1showshowforwardtrajectoriesarecalculatedintheHYSPLITmodel.GiventheinitialpositionP(t)andthe?rst-guesspositionP\(t+?t)=P(t)+V(P,t)?twhereV(P,t)denotethevelocityvector,V(P,t)islinearlyinterpolated,P(t+?t)=P(t)+．?t.VP(t+?t)=P(t)+．?t.2ransportanddispersionmodeland/orREADYwebsite()usedinthispublication.SeeSteinetal.oreinformationonHYSPLIT21ForthemeteorologicaldatafortheHYSPLITmodel,weusetheNCEP/NCARReanalysisdata,availablefrom1948toalursPP(t+?t)V(P\,t)?tP\(t+?t)V(P,t)?t P(t)ComparisonbetweendifferentmethodsofanalysisintheHYSPLITmodelFirstwediscussthebenetsandlimitationsofforwardandbackwardtrajectoryanalyses.ForwardtrajectoryanalysisisyimaginerunningforwardtrajectorysimulationsfrompollutinggenicouthKoreawewouldideallysimulateforwardtrajectoriesfromallthecoordinatesinChinaHoweverwefaceanumberghtherpollutionoriginatedfromChinaThisairpollutionpickeduppollutionfromotherneighboringcountriesofChinaFortunatelythereisonlytheYellowSeabetweeneverthisisthelimitationoftheHYSPLITrdandbackwardtrajectoryanalysesThetrajectorycalculationreliesonthemeanwindspeedityvectorsobtainedfromtheinputmeteorologicalconditions.Thus,thetrajectoryanalysisintheHYSPLITmodelprovidestheITamongparticles.Duetothiswayofcomputation,particledispersionresultsinthearrivalofafewerparticlesasthedistanceConstructionofinstrumentalvariablesusingtheHYSPLITmodelnninghKoreafaceWecreatetwoinstrumentsusingtheHYSPLITmodel(denotethemZ1andZ2).Z1ttakesavalueof1ifthe200-hourorAppendixBAdditionalFiguresandTablesListofFiguresinAppendix age ListofTablesinAppendixHYPERLINK\l