GfK-后疫情時代智能手機市場觀察及展望

KeySmartphoneMarket

OutlookandObservations

inPostCOVIDEra

PANGBin龐彬

ResearchAnalyst

SupplyChain&IndustryMarketAnalytics

-2.2%?-7.9%?+6.8%

Global

FeaturephoneSmartphone

Positivey/youtlookin2021withtangibledownside

Followingastumbled2020,2021y/yistobenefitfromtheeasycomparison;yetdownsideexistsduetouncertaintyfromIndiaandsluggishreopeningindevelopingeconomies

Smartphoneunity/y2019?2020?2021E

405m

1423m

462m

1358m

391m

388m

1407m

368m

1376m

253m

264m

1463m

1354m

1268m

2015201620172018201920202021E

?GfK

Source:GfKPOStrackingdata

16m

14m

12m

10m

8m

40%

W.Europesmartphoneunit

Smartphoney/y

-9%

-27%

-35%

22%

20%

0%

6m

W.Europetoremainoptimisticasreopeningcomes

W.EuropehasmostlyrecoveredfromtheaftermathofthelockdowncausedbytheUKstrain,thankstorobusteconomicfoundation,maturelogisticsinfrastructureandswiftvaccination

LateMAR-20:Morecountriesin

JAN-21:UK:thirdlockdown;restriction

extendedacrossEuropeamidUKstrain

lockdown

MAR-21:Phased

reopeningcommenced

NOV-20:UK:

14-MAR2020:Italyinlockdown

2Q20:Gradualease

secondlockdown

Smartphonessalesonlydroppedduringheftygovernmentcontrol

Rapidadaptationtonewbusinessenvironmentasexperienceaccumulated

Nofurtherplungeexpectedthankstoswiftvaccineroll-out

4m

-20%

2m

0m

-40%

?GfK

Source:GfKPOStrackingdata

USD500+(high

end)

4Q19

3Q20

2Q20

1Q20

MixinTotalSmartphones

4Q20

1Q21

High-end

24.8%

23.6%

23.8%

21.4%

27.4%

28.2%

Mid-range

22.3%

23.4%

24.7%

27.1%

25.8%

25.0%

Low-end

52.9%

53.0%

51.5%

51.5%

46.8%

46.8%

ASP(USD)

Smartphone389376383350395394

SmartphoneASPwasrobustwithhigh-endgrowth

SmartphoneASPhardlysawanydownturnevenduringthepeakoftheepidemic;transitiontomoreexpensivedevicescontinuedtobedrivenby5Groll-out

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-

USD250-500(mid-range)

USD0-250(low-end)

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

-

?GfK

Source:GfKPOStrackingdata

128GBandAbovetopropelglobalNANDupgrade

2021globalaverageNANDistoreach113.3GB,+20%y/y,deceleratingfrom+27%in2020and+46%in2019,mostlydraggedbysluggishmigrationfrom128GBto256GB

100%

90%

32GBandBelow

80%

70%

60%

50%

42%

128GB

40%

64GB

30%

20%

12%

256GB

10%

512GBandAbove

0%

?GfK

Source:GfKPOStrackingdata

Unitshare

AverageMP

AveragecameraMPgrowthacceleratedsince1Q19

AverageMPonrearprimarycameragrewsubstantiallysincetheintroductionof48MPsensorsintomainstreammarket;48MPandaboveaccountedfornearly50%ofglobalmarketex-Apple

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Globalsmartphone(ex-Apple)byrearprimarycamerapixel

108MP

20MP64MP

1