NATIXIS：2022年全球退休指數(shù)

2022NATIXISGLOBALRETIREMENTINDEX

DangerZone

Globalretirementsecuritychallenges

comehometoroostin2022

TableofContents

2

TenyearsoftheGlobalRetirementIndex

3

Globalretirementsecuritychallengescomehometoroostin2022

15

GlobalRetirementIndex2022

16

Framework

17

TheBestPerformers

19

Spotlight:GRI’sbiggestmovers:aten-yearretrospective

21

RegionalPerspective

23

PerformancebySub-Index

24

HealthIndex

26

Spotlight:UkrainianrefugeescouldimprovePolishdemographicissues

29

MaterialWellbeingIndex

31

Spotlight:Inflationimprovingdebt-to-GDPratios?Firstimpressionscouldbemisleading

34

FinancesinRetirementIndex

36

Spotlight:Thepandemic’slastingimpactontheUSlabormarket

38

QualityofLifeIndex

40

TheTop25:Year-on-YearTrends

42

CountryReports

68

References

69

Framework

70

AppendixA

70

Methodology

70

ConstructingtheIndicators

74

ConstructingtheGlobalRetirementIndex

75

AppendixB:FullRankings

TenyearsoftheGlobalRetirementIndex

WhenweintroducedtheNatixisGlobalRetirementIndexin2012,the

worldhadjustemergedfromtheglobalfinancialcrisis:Memoriesof

marketturmoilwerestillfresh.Inflationwaslow,butsowasgrowth.

Centralbankshadslashedinterestratestoall-timelows.Balance

sheetshadballoonedfromassetrepurchaseprograms.Andpublicdebt

hadswelledtorecordhighsaroundtheglobe.

Ontopofitall,thefirstwaveoftheBabyBoomgenerationhadjust

reachedretirementage,indicatingthatpay-as-you-goretirement

systemsaroundtheworldwouldsoonfaceastresstestlikenoother.It

allraisedthequestionofwhetherthemodelsforthosesystemswould

besustainableinthelongterm.

Thetimewasrighttoexamineretirementsecurityfromaglobal

perspective.WorkingincollaborationwithCoreDataResearch,Natixis

InvestmentManagerssoughttoidentify,measure,andtrackthekey

factorsthatwoulddetermineifindividualsaroundtheworldwouldbe

abletolivewithdignityintheyearsafterwork.

Asaninvestmentmanagementcompany,weknewfinanceswould

factorgreatlyintoretirementsecurity.Afterall,thediscussionoften

focusesonsavingforretirementandgeneratinganincomein

retirement.Butwealsorecognizedthatlikemanysustainabilityissues,

retirementsecuritywasamorecomplex,multi-dimensionaltopic.Sothe

indexwentbeyondinterestrates,savingsrates,andinflation.

Peoplearelivinglonger,andwithagecomesincreasedneedfor

medicalcare.Sotheindexconsidershealthfactorsalongsidefinances.

Toensuretheirfinancesholdup,theindexconsiderskeyeconomic

indicatorsthatexaminematerialwellbeing.Andbecauseretireesneed

toliveinaclean,safeenvironment,theindexconsidersqualityoflife.

In2022,theworldfindsitselfrecoveringfromanotherglobalcrisis.

Inflationisrunningatlevelsnotseensincethe1980s.Balancesheets

anddebtlevelshavesoaredevenhigher.Centralbankersagainare

turningtointerestratesasastopgap,onlythistimethey’reraisingrates.

Afteradecade-longbullrun,themarketsaremorevolatile,withindexes

andinvestorsaroundtheworldexperiencinglosses.TheBoomer

retirementwaveisatitscrest,andtheMillennialgenerationismaking

itspresenceknownintheworkforce.

Astheglobaleconomyevolves,theNatixisGlobalRetirementIndexstill

meetsitsclearobjective:toprovidepolicymakers,employersandthe

publicatlargewithacomparativetoolforseeingwherethefactorsare

bestalignedtoensureasecureretirement.

GlobalRetirementIndex20222

Globalretirementsecuritychallengescomehometoroostin2022

Thewarningsignalsareblaringandthegaugesareflashingbrightredin2022askeyriskconcernsforretirementsecurityarecomingtoaheadintoday’srapidlychangingeconomicenvironment.

Inflation,thelong-sleepinggiantamongfinancialwoesforretirees,hasbeenriledupinthejetwashofaglobalpandemicandwarinUkraine.Skyrocketingpricesforoil,foodandshelteraretakingadramaticbiteoutofthepurchasingpowerofretireesandpresentingacoreeconomiclessontothosestillplanningforlifeafterwork.

Abadyeartoretire

Butevenwhileinflationisrunningatitshighestlevelin40years,itisjustonefactoronagrowinglistofconcerns.Givenallthepotentialpitfalls,2022couldbeoneoftheworstyearstoretireinrecentmemory.Withmarketsdown,ratesstillrelativelylow,andinflationtakingabigbiteoutofretirees’wallets,thosewhostepoutoftheworkingworldruntheriskoftakingretirementdistributionsfromanalreadydepletedpoolofassets.Atthesametime,it’slikelytheywillhavetotakegreaterriskswiththeirportfoliotomakeupgroundthey’vealreadylost.Bothwillmakeithardtopreserveretirementsavingsandmakeithardertoattainasecureretirement,butwith20yearsaheadinretirement,thereisstilltimefor2022’sretireestoresettheirplans.

Whereretirementplanscangowrong

Howmuchdoesinflationfactorintoretirementsecurity?Financialprofessionalsaroundtheworldsayunderestimatingtheimpactofinflationisthenumberonemistakeinvestorsmakeintheirretirementplanning,accordingtothe2022NatixisGlobalSurveyofFinancialProfessionals.Perhapsmorethananyotherfactor,ithasthepotentialtoupsettheplansthathavetakendecadesformillionsofpeopletorealizebysimplyerodingthevalueofwhatthey’veworkedsohardtoaccumulate.

Butinflationisjustthestartingpointofalonglistofpotentialmistakesthatindividualscanmakeintheirretirementplans.Fromunderestimatinghowlongtheywilllivetoforgettingtofactorinhealthcarecosts.Fromoverestimatinginvestmentincometorelyingtoomuchonpublicbenefits.Andarangeofothermistakesunderscorejusthowharditcanbetogetitright.

Familiarissues.Newrisks.

TheriskstoglobalretirementsecuritywereclearwhenwefirstpublishedtheNatixisGlobalRetirementIndexin2012:agingpopulations,pensionfundingshortfalls,andanuncertaineconomicenvironment.Thosecoreissuesremainthesametenyearslater,butafteradecadeofincreasingpressuretheyarepresentingsomenewrisksin2022:

?Inflation:animmediatethreattoretirementsecurity–Rapidlyescalatingcostscanposeasignificantthreattothefinancialsecurityofretireesbyerodingpurchasingpower.Institutionalinvestorswillbechallengedtopreserveassetsinamorevolatileinvestmentenvironment.

?Interestratesandincome:long-termgains,short-termpain–Afteradecadeofhistoricallylowinterestrates,centralbankratehikesholdpromiseforannuitizingassetsinthelongterm,butnotwithoutsomeshort-termpainforindividualandinstitutionalinvestorsalike.

?Demographics:thegoodandbadoflivinglonger–Forindividuals,thelongevityrevolutionwilltaxtheirincomeplans.Forinstitutions,rapidlyagingpopulationswilltestthelimitsofbothpensionsand

governmentbenefitssystems.

Gettingretirementsecurityrightandhelpingtoensureindividualscanlivewithdignityaftertheirworkingyearsisacoresustainabilityissueforsocietyinthe21stcentury.Successwillrequireaconcertedeffortfrompolicymakers,employers,thefinancialservicesindustryandindividuals.Itallstartswithunderstandingtherisks.

Top10retirementplanningmistakes

1Underestimatingtheimpactofinflation49% 2Underestimatinghowlongyouwilllive46% 3Overestimatinginvestmentincome42% 4Beingtooconservativeininvestments41%

5Settingunrealisticreturnexpectations40%

6Forgettingtofactorinhealthcarecosts39% 7Failingtounderstandincomesources35% 8Relyingtoomuchonpublicbenefits33% 9Underestimatingrealestatecosts23%

10Beingtooaggressiveininvestments21%

Source:NatixisInvestmentManagers,GlobalSurveyofFinancialProfessionals

GlobalRetirementIndex20223

France

Inflation:animmediatethreatto

retirementsecurity

Aglobalpandemic,adisruptiontotheglobalsupplychain,andawarinUkrainearealllinkedasa

seriesofworldeventsthathasdeliveredthehighestlevelofinflationsincetheReagan-Thatcherera.

Whileinflationisalwaysaconcern,thespeedatwhichcostshaverampedupgivesreasontorethink

fundamentalsinretirementplanning.

Inflationpainswerenotfeltequallyacrossretirees’wallets.

Formostofthepastdecadeinflationhasbeenexceptionallylow.Between2012and2020inflation

for38OECDmembercountriesaveragedjust1.76%.Supplychaindisruptionshelpedinflationmore

thandoubleto4%in2021,butevenstill,thedecadeaverageremainslessthan2%(1.92%).Thencame

Russia’swaronUkraine.Injustthefirsthalfoftheyear,inflationforthosesame38countriesspikedto

9.6%inMay.2

Butinflationpainswerenotfeltequallyacrossretirees’wallets.Withapost-pandemicjumpin

demandforenergyandthewarinUkrainedrivingscarcity,consumershavefeltapowerfulinflation

effectatthegaspump.

Inflationhasincreaseddramaticallyfrom2012to2022

2012Q22022

2.0%

5.3%

2.0%

Germany

7.6%

3.0%

Italy

6.9%

Japan

0.3%

0.9%

4.1%

Mexico

7.8%

2.4%

Spain

9.1%

2.6%

UK

7.9%

2.1%

USA

8.6%

2.2%

OECD

9.7%

Source:OECD

GlobalRetirementIndex20224

GlobalRetirementIndex20225

US

UK

SPAIN

MEXICO

Painatthepump

Between2012and2021gasolinecostanaverageof$2.80pergallonintheUS,3makingafill-upfora15-gallontank$42.Whilethatmaystillbeasignificantbillforsomeonelivingonafixedincome,itismoremanageablethanthe$75itcostinJune2022whenaveragepumppriceshit$5.4Whilepriceshavemoderated,thepointisclear:A40%hiketalliesuptoa$1,700increaseinretirees’expensesforjustonetankaweek.Butit’snotjustatthepumpthatretireesarefeelingthesqueeze.

Risinggascostsputthesqueezeonretireesinthelastyear

2021July

2022

$2.31

$4.61

$5.79

$8.50

FRANCE

$6.21 $7.16

$5.41

$7.30

$3.33

$4.39

PricesareUSDperUSgallon

Sources:Statista,GlobalPetrolP

Forthoseonafixedincomeanextra$3,000forfoodandfuelcanhaveadramaticimpactonqualityoflife.

Painatthecheckoutline

Foodpriceshavealsospiked,andthisjumpcanbeevenmoredetrimentaltoretirementsecurity.Insimpleterms,youcanalwaysgowithouttravel,butyoucan’tgowithoutfood.Grocerypriceshadbeenrelativelystableinrecentyears.Between2017and2021foodinflationaveragedabout3.6%acrossOECDcountries.Eveninthattime,theUS(-0.2%)andCanada(-1.0%)sawfoodpricesactuallydeclinein2017.5Butthepictureismuchdifferentin2022.

ByJune2022,OECDreportsthatfoodinflationspikedto13.3%acrossmembercountries,includinga12.2%increaseintheUS,11.95%inGermany,and9.8%intheUK.EvenJapan,wherefoodinflationhadbeenlessthan1%infourofthefivepreviousyears,sawfoodpricesjump4.11%.6Inpracticaltermsthistranslatesintoasignificantincreaseingrocerybills.Forexample,USDA’sestimatedcostsforamoderateweeklymealplanfortwoadultsincreasedfrom$141.40in2017to$167.53in2022.7Italladdsuptoanother$1,300annually.

Forthoseonafixedincomeanextra$3,000forfoodandfuelcanhaveadramaticimpactonqualityoflife.

Consumersaregettinglessfortheirmoneyatthegrocerystore

COSTFORAMODERATEWEEKLYMEALPLAN

FORTWOADULTS(US)+$1,300

2017

2022

$141$7,353Annually

$168$8,712Annually

Source:USDA

membersovertimedollarsratesare

SocialSecurityordersupaCOLA

Policymakershaveakeytoolattheirdisposaltohelpmitigatetheimpactofinflationonpensioners–theCostofLivingAdjustment.IntheUS,lowinflationhasmeantSocialSecuritybeneficiarieshadreceivedanaverageadjustmentofjust1.32%between2012and2021.ThegoodnewswasthattheCOLAwasincreasedto5.9%inDecemberof2021.8Unfortunately,inflationhasreachedmuchhigherlevelsandexpensesareincreasing.Forexample,risingprescriptiondrugbenefitpremiumsingeneral,andforAlzheimermedicationAduhelminparticular,haveresultedinaone-timeincreaseinMedicarePartBmonthlypremiumsfrom$148to$1709in2022.Reducedpricingforthedrugwillresultinsignificantcostsavings,andasaresult,premiumpaymentsareexpectedtodecreasein2023.

Thegoodandthebadofinflationforinstitutions

Whileinflationhasanegativeimpactonindividuals,certaininstitutionsmayfindanindirectbenefit.Pensionsgenerallymakeoutbetterininflationarytimesascentralbanksimplementinterestratehikestocurbinflation.Thisisbecauseoftheseesaweffectthatrateshaveonpensionliabilities.Insimplestterms:Thehighertherate,thelowertheliabilities.

Here’showitworks.Allpensionscalculatetheirfutureliabilities,orpaymentsthatwillbemadetomembersfordecadesintothefuture.Buttheyarerequiredtocalculatethesumofwhattheywillpay

Nowwithratesincreasing,liabilitiesareshrinkingformany.Butnotallpensionsrespondinequalmeasure.Themathoninflationultimatelyworksouttothebetterforprivatepensions.Withinflationdrivingratesupandliabilitiesdown,thesemanagersgenerallyseetheircontributionratedecline.Onthepublicsideofpensions,themathmaynotbeasadvantageous.

Twokeydifferencesforpublicandprivatepensions

Twootherfactorsaddsignificantlytothechallengeforpublicpensions:First,mostprivatepensionsareclosedtonewmembersasemployershaveshiftedretirementplansfromdefinedbenefitpensionstodefinedcontributionplans,sofewerandfewerpeoplewillreceivepensionpayments.Mostpublicpensionsremainopentonewmembers.Inthesimplestterms,gettingnewmembersmeanstheywillneedmoremoneytopaymoremembersandtheirpaymentswillhavetostretchoutoveralonger,indefiniteperiodoftime.Second,manypublicplansalsoincludeacostoflivingadjustmentwhichmakesliabilitiesmorevariableoverthelongterm.

Ultimately,inflationisnotjusttheapexofretirementsecuritythreats;itisalsothetriggerforanotherkeychallengefacingindividualsandinstitutions:risinginterestrates.

WHENRATESRISE,PENSIONLIABILITIESFALL

usingpresent-day.Whenlow,

liabilitieslookalotlarger.That’sbecausethelowratesmeanthefutureincomefromanybondsmanagersholdwillbelowaswell.Whenratesrise,thefutureincomeofthoseholdingsisgreater.Asaresult,pensionswillreceiveahigherlevelofincome.

GlobalRetirementIndex2022

Ratehikesmeanthatinstitutionshavethe

potentialforgreaterincomeinthefuture,

whichmakestoday'sliabilitieslower.

InterestRates

PensionLiabilities

6

7

Interestratesandincome:

long-termgains,short-termpain

Lowinterestrateshavebeenthebaneofretirementsecurityforwelloveradecade.Beginningwiththecutsimplementedduringtheglobalfinancialcrisis,interestratesstayedathistoriclowsformorethanadecade.Butnowintheinflationarypost-pandemiceconomy,centralbankshavebeguntoraiseratesinearnest.Whilethatisgoodnewsinthelongterm,itwillnotbewithoutsomeshort-termpain.

IntheUS,thefedfundsratehaddroppedto0.7%in2011andstayedwellbelowhistoricaveragesuntil2016whenaseriesofsmallratehikesbegantosuggestareturntothenorm.Thencametheglobalpandemicandrateswereslashedto0.05%inApril2020.Twoyearslater,asinflationhasspiked,theFedhasrespondedbyhikingratesby75basispoints,firstinJuneandthenagaininJuly.10

InEurope,aseriesofcutsbytheECBtookratesdownto0%in2012.By2014rateswereintonegativeterritory,wheretheystayedforthenexteightyears.Itwasn’tuntilJulyof2022,whenbankersinEuropeimplementeda50bpshike,thatratesevengotbacktozero.11

CENTRALBANKRATESHAVEINCREASEDSUBSTANTIALLYINTHELASTTWOYEARS

8/11/2022

6/30/2022

12/31/2021

12/31/2020

FederalReserve

2.50%

BankofEngland

1.75%

1.75%

1.25%

1.58

0.25%0.25%

0.25%

0.15%

Source:Bloomberg

0.0%

-0.50%-0.50%-0.50%

ECB

Similarly,ratesintheUKhaveremainedlow,nottopping1%since2009.CovidandthethreatofrecessionbroughtaboutcutsthatbroughttheBankofEnglandratetoa300-yearlowof0.1%inMarchof2020.12Two-plusyearslater,rateswereincreasedto1.25%inJune2022.

Elsewhere,theGermanBundroseto0.5%inJuly2022aftergoingto0%duringthepandemic.Australiahikedratesfrom0.85%to1.35%thesamemonth.InJapan,wheretheyhavebeensteadyingtheeconomyagainststagflationsincethe'90s,theBankofJapanhascontinueditsnegativeratepolicy,maintainingthe-0.1%ratethat’sbeeninplacesince2016.13

GlobalRetirementIndex2022

GlobalRetirementIndex2022

Thegoodandthebadofrates

Therearealotofadvantagestolivinginalow-interest-rateworld.Lowrateshelpedpropelglobalgrowthfrom$75trillionto$104trillion14overthepastdecade.They’vehelpeddriveequitymarketstorecordhighs,helpedbusinessgrow,andhelpedindividualsattainhomeownership.

Thoseinvestingforretirementmostcertainlybenefitedfromtheboon,butlowrateshavenothelpedretireesinequalmeasure.Infact,lowrateshavepresentedretireeswithsomedifficultchoices.

Inthesimplestterms,lowrateshavemadeithardforretireestogenerateincomeofftheirsavings.Withratesinlowtonegativeterritory,manywerenotabletofollowthegoldenruleof“Nevertouchtheprincipal.”Insteadofwaitingforbondstothrowoffasustainableincome,retireeswereforcedtodipintotheprincipaloftheirnesteggwhentheymightnormallyseektopreservetheircapital.

Thisputstheminthedifficultpositionofloweringtheirexpectedincome,acceptingthattheirassetsmayrunouttooearly,ortakingonmoreinvestmentrisktomakeupthedifference.Eachdecisiontakesonheavierconsequencesin2022’svolatilemarkets.

Risksateveryturnforretirees

Withinflationrunningata40-yearhigh,thoseonafixedincomewillalreadyfinditdifficulttokeeppacewithrisingcosts,letalonefindroomtocuttheirincome.Longevityaddstothechallenge.Peoplemaybelivinglonger,butnobodyknowshowlongtheywilllive.Asaresult,there’sacrucialpiecemissingtotheequationthattellsyouhowmuchincomeyoucantakefromyoursavingswhileensuringitwilllasttherestofyourlife.Andasmarketshaveshownin2022,equitymarketsdonotoperateinavacuum.Economicsurpriseslikeaninflationaryspike,slowgrowth,andrecessioncanleadtoaswiftmarketdownturn,furthercomplicatingtheirabilitytopreservecapitalwhiletakingincome.

Bondsalsoexperiencingturbulence

Inthelongrun,retireesmaygainsomehopeforhigherincomeinthefuture,butnotwithoutsomepainalongthewayasmarketsweatherthechange.Unfortunately,fewinvestorsmayunderstandwhatrisingratesholdinstoreforthem.In2019,theNatixisCenterforInvestorInsightconductedaquizwith9,000investorsin27countries.Weaskedthemwhattwothingshappenwhenratesgoup.

Theyweren’tsure.

Professionalsmayrecognizethatwithrisingratesthere’sagreaterchanceforhigherincomeinthefuture,butthatthepresentvalueofthebondsyoucurrentlyowngoesdown.Only3%ofinvestorsworldwideunderstoodbothsidesoftheequation.One-thirddidn’tunderstandeither.15

MANYINVESTORSDON’TUNDERSTANDHOWRISINGRATESAFFECTBONDS

3%

ofinvestorsfromourSurveyof

IndividualInvestorsunderstand

howratesaffectbonds.

1

Higherratesdecrease

thepresentvalueof

thebond.

2

Higherratestodaymean

bondswillgeneratehigher

incomedowntheroad.

Source:NatixisInvestmentManagers,GlobalSurveyofIndividualInvestors

8

Bondyieldshavehoveredaroundhistoriclowsformorethanadecade,whichhasputincome-orientedinvestorsatadisadvantage.Nowwithratesratchetingup,theyarefeelingevenmorepainasUSgovernmentbondvalueshaveplummeted-10.41%asofJune30,2022accordingtotheICEBofA7-10YearTreasuryIndex,settingthestagefortheirworstcalendarperformanceyearsincetheindexbeganin1973.Germangovernmentbondsaredown-11.39%andEurozonegovernmentbondsaredown-12.44%inthesametimeframe–whichisshapinguptotheworstyearonthecontinentsincetheICEBofAIndexdatabeganin1986.16

Fundingratiosstilltroubledbyvolatilemarket

It’snotjustindividualswhoarefacedwithinterestratechallenges.Thesuccessandhealthofpublicandprivatepensionsisdirectlylinkedtointerestratepolicy.Notonlydoratesaffectpensionfundingratios,buttheknock-oneffectscanaffecttheiroverallinvestmentperformance.

Risingratesforetellhigheryieldsforbondsinthefuture.Forpensionsthatestimatetheirliabilitiesusingcurrentrates,higherratesdemonstrateagreaterabilitytomakepaymentstomembersdecadesinthefuture.Improvedfundingratiosarepositiveforpensionmanagers,buttheywillalsofeeltheeffectsofanydownturnsthatmaycomefromreactionstoratehikes.

Forexample,pensionmanagersmighthavebreathedasighofreliefatthestartof2022.Evenwithratesatpandemiclows,theyhadseensomerecentimprovementinfundingratios.TheyalsobenefitedfromthebullmarketinwhichtheS&P500deliveredabout40%over2021and2022.Asaresultoftheboon,OECDreportsthatmembercountrieshadseenpensionassetsrisebyanaverageof8%in2021.17

77.9%

Atthehighendofpensionfundperformance,NewZealandsawassetsgrowby19%.Australia(18%),Iceland(17.9%),France(16.6%)andMexico(11.2%)allfollowedsuitwithdouble-digitgains.Butthereliefdidn’tlastlong.18IntheUS,pensionsdelivered11.6%in2021,andfundingratioshadclimbedabove80%forthefirsttimesince2008.19Butthestorylinehasflippedin2022.

Equitablereportsthatwithaveragelossesof-10.4%20inthefirsthalfof2022,thefundedstatusforstateandlocalpensionshasexperiencedthesharpestdeclineinfundingratiosincetheglobalfinancialcrisis,droppingfrom84.8%onaverageto77.9%.21Toppingitoff,theNationalAssociationofStateRetirementAdministratorsaverageassumedrateofreturnforitsUSmembershasdroppedbelow7%to6.9%.22

Interestrateshavebeenachallengetoglobalretirementsecurityformorethanadecade.Now,withcentralbanksimplementingratehikestocounterinflationarypressures,individualsandinstitutionswillfindthehopeforhigherincomeandimprovedfundingratiosinthelongrun.Buttheancillaryeffectsofrateincreasescanresultinalotofpaininthehereandnow.

AREVERSALOFFORTUNEFORPENSIONPLANSIN2022

2021

Pensions

sawgainsof11.6%

2022

Pensions

hadaveragelossesof-10.4%

Fundingratios

wereabove84.8%

Fundingratios

havedroppedto77.9%

Sources:PewCharitableTrust;EquableInstitute

GlobalRetirementIndex2022

9

Japan

201224%

202129%

Germany

201221%

202122%

UK

201217%202119%

China

20128.5%202112%

201214%202117%

Demographics:thegoodandbadoflivinglonger

Challengesaheadforyoungercountries,too

Evenregionswithyoungpopulationscouldsoonfacesimilarchallengesasimprovednutrition,healthcareandenvironmentalfactorscontributetolongevityandlowbirthrateshelppushtheoverallpopulationeverolder.ThisisthecaseinbothChinaandLatinAmericain2022.

Alongwithotherlongevityfactors,Chinaisalsograpplingwiththerepercussionsfromitsone-childpolicy,whichcappedpopulationgrowthfordecades.Asaresult,theUNestimatesthatby2050,the65-pluspopulationwillreach366millionpeople,surpassingtoday’stotalUSpopulation.Overthenextthreedecades,theshareofpeopleinthecohortwillmorethandoublefromtoday’s12%to26%.27Asaresult,policymakersthereannouncedplanstograduallyincreasetheretirementagefromthecurrent60formen,50forblue-collarwomenand55forwhite-collarwomenoverthenextfiveyears.28

InLatinAmerica,wherethe65-pluspopulationisexpectedtoreach18%by2050,theoverallimpactwillnotbeasgreat,butsomecountrieswillbefacingsignificantchallenges.Forexample,ChileandUruguayareamongfourcountrieswhereitisexpectedthatby2050therewillbeonlytwoworkingageadultsforeverypersonover65.

It’snosecretthatthepopulationinJapan,EuropeandtheUShas

beenaging.Thedrumbeatofconcernhasbeenloudandclear

sincestatisticiansfirstrealizedthatthemassivepost-WorldWar

IIBabyBoomgenerationwouldeventuallyentertheir60sand

thatwavewouldputastrainonretirementsystems.

In2012,theearliestwaveoftheBabyBoomgenerationwasjust

reachingretirementageasthe2.1millionindividualsborninthe

USin194623inchedclosertoage66.Sincethen,thenumberof

peopleage65+intheUShasgrownto16%24ofapopulationof

331million.InEurope,thatpopulationrepresentsanevenbigger

pieceofthepieat20.8%ofthe750millionEUresidents.The

numberi