飛輪電池生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃課程設(shè)計(jì)

學(xué)號(hào)：課程設(shè)計(jì)題目飛輪電池生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃的制定學(xué)院機(jī)電工程學(xué)院專(zhuān)業(yè)工業(yè)工程班級(jí)工業(yè)1001班姓名指導(dǎo)老師王老師2023年1月2日目錄市場(chǎng)需求預(yù)測(cè)實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析和比較制定綜合生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃生產(chǎn)能力的粗平衡制定主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃制定MRP,CRP生產(chǎn)能力的精平衡零件工序卡編制產(chǎn)品裝配工序卡編制1.市場(chǎng)需求預(yù)測(cè)（MarketForecast）HistoricalRecord(AggregateDemand)Month1Month2Month3Month4Year19182421Year210202723Year311222926Year4由過(guò)去的3年的需求來(lái)看，需求呈年周期性變化，不考慮每年后8個(gè)月的情況，所以選擇季節(jié)模型來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)，其預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果如下。***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-------------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARSEASONACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0252110.00019.3279.6640.3362220.00019.77619.7760.2242327.00020.22426.9660.0342423.00020.67324.1181.1183111.00021.12110.5610.4393222.00021.57021.5700.4303329.00022.01829.3580.3583426.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARSEASONFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND4111.45810.91012.0064223.36422.26824.4604331.75030.28933.2124428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167由決定系數(shù)R=0.942和相關(guān)系數(shù)=0.8872,預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確性很高。其預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果如下：Mouth1Mouth2Mouth3Mouth4Year4122432282.實(shí)際產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)工藝路線分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)零件代號(hào)零件名稱(chēng)零件數(shù)量零件材料零件工藝過(guò)程生產(chǎn)提前期12345MLF-01頂罩145#鑄造車(chē)削鉆孔半精銑精銑2MLF-02支柱645#粗車(chē)半精銑半精車(chē)精車(chē)車(chē)螺紋1MLF-04減震膠圈12普通塑膠板沖壓1MLF-06支撐底座3Q235-A鑄造粗銑半精銑擴(kuò)孔2MLF-08密封板1Q235-A沖壓半精銑精銑鉆孔2MLF-10滑動(dòng)軸承1錫青銅鑄造粗銑半精銑精銑鉆孔2MLF-07-01線圈擋板6絕緣板沖壓1MLF-07-02電磁鐵線圈3Q銅漆包線纏繞13.生產(chǎn)方式的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析與比較(AlternativePlansComparison)該工廠生產(chǎn)狀況：勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)600（Labor/Assemble）機(jī)器標(biāo)準(zhǔn)425（Machine-Hour/Assemble）裝配標(biāo)準(zhǔn)175（Assemble-Hour/Assemble）機(jī)器總工作能力12325（Hours/Mouth）裝配總工作能力4900（Hours/Mouth）現(xiàn)有工人90（Person）（25workdays&8workhoursaday）Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生產(chǎn)28臺(tái)。每生產(chǎn)一個(gè)飛輪電池需要工人：600/（25×8）=31.由市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)情況知道：總需求量=12+24+32+28=96若采用均衡生產(chǎn)方式，則96/4=24，每月要生產(chǎn)24個(gè)由預(yù)測(cè)情況知道，其中第三月需求量為32，超過(guò)該工廠的最大生產(chǎn)能力，所以第三月生產(chǎn)28個(gè)首先,計(jì)算這一年里計(jì)劃聘用人員數(shù)量,下崗工人的數(shù)量和平均庫(kù)存:123456789101112AggregateplanMouthAggregatedemandPlannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffInventoryaddingorsubtractionBeginninginventoryEndinginventoryAverageinventorypermouthinventoryforfourmouthsLevelcpacitywithinventory112247201812102216682242472000222222332247200（8）221418428247200（4）141012Matchingdemand11212360540000022424723600000332288412000004282884000000接下來(lái),計(jì)算所有可能計(jì)劃的年成本:庫(kù)存成本79（$/Mouth）雇傭成本10（$/Person）解雇成本60（$/Person）外協(xié)成本1800（$/Assemble）AggregateplanTotalnumberofworkershiredTotalanumberofworkerslaidoffAverageforfourmouthshiringandlayoffcostinventorycarryingcostTotalsubtractioncostTotalincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity018681080537206452Matchingdemand48540372004*180010920在matchingdemand生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃中第三月的需求量超過(guò)了本廠的最大生產(chǎn)能力，如若要滿足要求需要采用外協(xié)或者加班的方式解決。由上，我們知道該工廠的機(jī)器總工時(shí)和裝配總工時(shí)最多就能生產(chǎn)28個(gè)飛輪電池，所以不是人能加班就能完成的，所以超出28個(gè)飛輪電池以外的需求，只能采用外協(xié)。又因?yàn)椋唤o出了4個(gè)月的市場(chǎng)需求，我們能知道這4個(gè)月的生產(chǎn)情況和庫(kù)存情況，而4個(gè)月過(guò)后，工人雇傭情況是保持不變，此時(shí)，均衡生產(chǎn)是72個(gè)工人，而市場(chǎng)匹配是84個(gè)工人。但均衡生產(chǎn)有10個(gè)的庫(kù)存。所以僅以此4個(gè)月的生產(chǎn)成本計(jì)算，其他8個(gè)月的情況都忽略。最后，分別計(jì)算市場(chǎng)匹配和均衡生產(chǎn)的成本并比較;Costoflevelcapacity=6452+72×4×2×200=121652Costofmatchingdemand=10920+（36+72+84+84）×2×200=121320由以上計(jì)算我們知道，市場(chǎng)匹配的成本比均衡生產(chǎn)的成本要少332$綜上所述：采用市場(chǎng)匹配方案的費(fèi)用為121320美元，其次是均衡式生產(chǎn)的費(fèi)用為121652美元，兩者相差332美元，相差不大。1.從預(yù)測(cè)的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)前景是比較好的，環(huán)境是比較穩(wěn)定的。而該廠的生產(chǎn)能力不夠，需要擴(kuò)大機(jī)器及裝配生產(chǎn)能力。2.市場(chǎng)匹配的生方式使得工廠處于不穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài)，總是需要招聘或辭退工人，而且需要加班和外協(xié)，不僅使生產(chǎn)變得復(fù)雜化，而且公司的生產(chǎn)能力并沒(méi)用充分利用，同時(shí)可能導(dǎo)致工人的工作熱情不高，由于新工人經(jīng)驗(yàn)不足，又或者外協(xié)的產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量也是不能把握的，都會(huì)給產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量帶來(lái)一定的負(fù)面影響。3.機(jī)器的使用狀態(tài)也是不穩(wěn)定的，常需要停用一些機(jī)器，這樣對(duì)機(jī)器的工作效率也有一定的影響，而均衡式的生產(chǎn)方式恰能彌補(bǔ)這一點(diǎn)，對(duì)公司的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展更有益處。所以選擇均衡生產(chǎn)的方式制定綜合生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃(AggregatePlanning)按市場(chǎng)均衡方式生產(chǎn)1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPlannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200332247200428247200生產(chǎn)能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanning)Monthfinalassemblyhours1234Production24242424Finalassemblyhours4200420042004200Assemblecapacity(hours4900490049004900Finalmachinehours10200102001020010200Machinecapacity(hours12325123251232512325從上表可以看出Finalassemblyhours<Assemblecapacity(hours)，F(xiàn)inalmachinehours<Machinecapacity(hours)說(shuō)明生產(chǎn)能力滿足要求，不需要加班或者外協(xié).6.制定主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃（MasterProductionSchedule）均衡生產(chǎn)：主生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃Month1Month2Month3Month41234123412341234Totaldemand12243228Beginninginventory10222214Requiredproduction6666666666666666Endinginventory22221410制定MRP&ERP(MaterialRequirementplanning,CapacityRequirementPlanning)7.1MRP的制定Level0飛輪電池LT=1weekLevel1MLF-01SA-1MLF-08MLF-10SA-4LT=1weekLT=1weekLevel2MLF-02MLF-04MLF-06MLF-07-01MLF-07-02SA-1支撐裝配體SA-4電磁鐵裝配體各個(gè)零件選擇用LotForLot的生產(chǎn)方式，用軟件POM計(jì)算可得：***MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)***==============================================================================PROBLEMNAME:Untitled==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF00001080LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available20000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666----------------------------------------------------------------------------============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0112000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeSA-0111000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases3018181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0221000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements180108108108108108108108ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements180108108108108108108108PlannedOrderReceipts180108108108108108108108PlannedOrderReleases288108108108108108108108****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1081081081081081081080ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1081081081081081081080PlannedOrderReceipts1081081081081081081080PlannedOrderReleases10810810810810810800****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0421000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements360216216216216216216216ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements360216216216216216216216PlannedOrderReceipts360216216216216216216216PlannedOrderReleases576216216216216216216216****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements2162162162162162162160ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements2162162162162162162160PlannedOrderReceipts2162162162162162162160PlannedOrderReleases21621621621621621600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0622000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements9054545454545454ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements9054545454545454PlannedOrderReceipts9054545454545454PlannedOrderReleases19854545454545454****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements545454545454540ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements545454545454540PlannedOrderReceipts545454545454540PlannedOrderReleases5454545454000****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF0812000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF1012000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****----------------------------------------------------------------------------============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeSA-0411000LFL----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678----------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases3018181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180****RUSHORDER****-----------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF7121000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements6036363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements6036363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts6036363636363636PlannedOrderReleases9636363636363636****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements363636363636360ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements363636363636360PlannedOrderReceipts363636363636360PlannedOrderReleases36363636363600****RUSHORDER****-------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSizeMLF7221000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements3018181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements3018181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts3018181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818****RUSHORDER****--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Number:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements181818181818180ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements181818181818180PlannedOrderReceipts181818181818180PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800****RUSHORDER****----------------------------------------------------------------------------============================================================================PLANN