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McKinsey

TechnologyTrends

Outlook2022

Report

August2022

Introduction

byMichaelChui,RogerRoberts,andLareinaYee

McKinsey&Company2

Technologycontinuestobeaprimarycatalystforchangeintheworld.Technologyadvancesgivebusinesses,governments,andsocial-sectorinstitutionsmorepossibilitiestolifttheirproductivity,inventorreinventofferings,andcontributetohumanity’swell-being.Andwhileitremainsdifficulttopredicthowtechnologytrendswillplayout,executivescanplanaheadbetterbytrackingthedevelopmentofnewtechnologies,anticipatinghowcompaniesmightusethem,andunderstandingthefactorsthataffectinnovationandadoption.

Tothatend,wehaveworkedwiththeinternalandexternalexpertsontheMcKinseyTechnologyCounciltoidentifyandinterpret14ofthemostsignificanttechnologytrendsunfoldingtoday(seesidebar“AbouttheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil”).Thisstudybuildsonthetrendresearchwesharedlastyear,addingfreshdataanddeeperanalysistoprovideamoregranularassessmentoftrendsintwothematicgroups:SiliconAge,whichencompassesdigitalandITtechnologies,andEngineeringTomorrow,whichencompassesphysicaltechnologiesindomainssuchasenergyandmobility.

Ouranalysisexaminessuchtangible,quantitativefactorsasinvestment,researchactivity,andnewscoveragetogaugethemomentumofeachtrend.Wealsoconducteddozensofinterviewsandperformedhundredsofhoursofresearchtolearnwhichindustriesareapttobenefitmostastheyabsorbthesetechnologies.And,recognizingthattrendscanspeedup,slowdown,orchangecourse,weexaminedtheuncertaintiesandquestionssurroundingeachtrend.

Thisresearchoverview,anaccompanyingonlineinteractive,andasetof14in-depthtrendprofileslayouttheseconsiderationsinmoredetailsothatexecutivescanbettercomprehendhowtheindividualtrendsaredevelopingandinteracting,andwhatthesedevelopmentsmightmeanfortheirorganizations.Lookingacrossthetrends,wealsoarrivedatsomegeneralobservationsthatleadersmightfindinstructive.

Newdynamics

First,severaltrendsthatarebasedonprovenandmaturetechnologies—namelyappliedAI,advancedconnectivity,futureofbioengineering,andcloudandedgecomputing—scoremorehighlyonquantitativemeasuresofinnovation,interest,andinvestmentthantrendsbasedontechnologiesthatarestillintheearlystagesofdevelopment.Thesetrendsalsotendtohaveviableapplicationsinmoreindustries,whichplacesthemclosertoastateofmainstreamadoptionthanothertrends(Exhibit1).

Thenextnoteworthygroupconsistsoftrendsthatarecloselyalignedwithsustainabilitypriorities.Thesetrends—whichwecallfutureofcleanenergy,futureofsustainableconsumption,andfutureofmobility—displayincreasinglevelsofinnovation,interest,andinvestment.Indeed,ofallthe14trendswestudied,theclean-energyandmobilitytrendsattractedthemostinvestment.Theyhavealsoemergedassignificantacrossmultipleindustries.

Outsidethefirsttwomajorcategories,newerandless-provendigitaltoolspowerasetofemergingtrends:industrializingmachinelearning,immersive-realitytechnologies,trust

architecturesanddigitalidentity,next-generationsoftwaredevelopment,andquantumtechnologies.Thesetrendscouldhavemajorbenefitsforbusinesses.Forexample,industrializingmachinelearning(ML)canshortentheproductiontimeframeforMLapplicationsby90percent.Butmuchworkmustbedonetodevelop,refine,andcommercializethetechnologiesthatunderpinthesetrends.Asaresult,it’sunclearhowlongitwilltakeforthesetrendstobeadoptedinmultiplesectors,letalonetorealizethepotentialseenbyproponents.

AbouttheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil

Technologyischangingeverythinginourworkandhomelives.WelaunchedtheMcKinseyTechnologyCounciltohelpunderstandwhatiscomingandhowitwillaffectusall—takinga“l(fā)ookaroundthecorner”towardthefuturesthattechnologychangecanunlockaswellasthetoughquestionsitraises.

Wewilllookataspectrumoftechnologies,fromcomputingtobiology,andtheirapplicationsacrossallsectors,fromminingtoentertainment.Welookatthescience,howittranslatesintoengineering,andwhenitwillacceleratetoimpact—atscale,andaroundtheworld.Wearedoingthiswithadiversegroupofmorethan50seniorleadersinMcKinsey,whocomefromawiderangeofscienceandtechnologybackgrounds,andorchestratingexchangesbetweenthemanddozensofleadingscientists,entrepreneurs,founders,andresearcherswhoareleadingpathbreakingworkintheirfields.

—LareinaYee,seniorpartner,McKinsey;chair,McKinseyTechnologyCouncil

Introduction

(continued)

Exhibit1

AppliedAIrecordedthehighestinnovationscoreofall14trends,whilecleanenergydrewthemostinterestandinvestment.

Innovation,interest,investment,andadoption,bytechnologytrend,2021

Innovation,1score(0=lower;1=higher)

1.0

AppliedAI

0.9

Industrializingmachinelearning

0.8

Advanced

connectivity

0.7

Futureofbioengineering

Trustarchitecturesanddigitalidentity

0.6

Immersive-reality

technologies

Cloudandedgecomputing

0.5

Quantumtechnologies

0.4

0.3

Futureofmobility

Futureofcleanenergy

0.2

Futureofsustainableconsumption

0.1

Web3

Futureofspacetechnologies

Next-generationsoftwaredevelopment

0

01.0

Interest,2score(0=lower;1=higher)

Color=adoptionratescore

(0=none;5=mainstream)

012345

Size=investment,$billion

7520

250

150

Note:Innovationandinterestscoresforthe14trendsarerelativetooneanother.All14trendsexhibithighlevelsofinnovationandinterestcomparedwithothertopicsandarealsoattractingsignificantinvestments($2billionminimumin2021).

1Theinnovationscorecombinesthe0–1scoresforpatentandresearch,whicharerelativetothetrendsstudied.Thepatentscoreisbasedonameasureofpatentfilings,andtheresearchscoreisbasedonameasureofresearchpublications.

2Theinterestscorecombinesthe0–1scoresfornewsandsearches,whicharerelativetothetrendsstudied.Thenewsscoreisbasedonameasureofnewspublications,andthesearchesscoreisbasedonameasureofsearchenginequeries.

McKinsey&Company3

Introduction(continued)

McKinsey&Company4

Despitetheuncertaintyofthesenewertrends,it’sapparentthatindustriesarebroadlyexposedtochangesresultingfromtechnologicalinnovationandthediffusionofnewtechnology-enabledbusinesspractices.Whenwelookedathowfrequentlynewsreportsmentionedcompaniesin20sectorsalongsidedifferenttrends,wefoundthatmostofthesesectorsdisplayameaningfulassociationwithfiveormoretrends.Thematureandsustainability-focusedtrendsdescribedaboveexhibitacloseconnectionwithmultipleindustries.Severalnascenttrendsalsoshowamoderatelycloseconnectionwithmanyindustries.Overall,weseethatpresscoverageconnectstheautomotive,manufacturing,telecommunications,andtechnologysectorscloselytoatleastonetrendandmoderatelytoseveralothers(Exhibit2).Weplantoexploretheeffectsthattechnologytrendsarehaving,andcouldhave,onsectorsinmoredepthoverthecomingmonths.(Formoreabouthowweperformedthiswork,pleaseseethesidebar“Researchmethodology.”)

Lookingahead

Weexpectchangeslikethesewillaccelerateandintensifyintheyearstocome,muchastheyhaveduringtheroughlythreedecadessincethestartoftheinternetrevolution.Thechangeswillnotonlyalterthecompetitivelandscapebutalsoexertever-morepowerfuleffectsonsociety:reshapingmarkets,boostingproductivity,spurringeconomicgrowth,andenhancinglivesandlivelihoods.

Whenwelookatthesetrends,whatimpressesusmorethananythingelseisthemassiveeffectthattechnologywillhaveoneverysector.Thenextfewdecadespromisetobeatimeinwhichtechnologiesprogressever-morequicklyfromsciencetoengineeringtoimpact—atscale,andaroundtheworld.Wealsoexpecttoseethemultiplyingeffectof“combinatorialinnovation,”asdifferenttechnologiescometogetherincreativeways.Forexample,thisishappeningnowasorganizationscombinedifferenttechnologiestocreatethemetaverseandthemanylayersthatmakeitup.

InformedbyourcolleaguesandthemembersoftheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil,weintendtopublishmoreabouttheeffectsoftechnologytrendsonparticularindustries,abouttheeffortsofcompaniestotapintotechnologytrends,andaboutthewaysthatbusinessleaderscanmanagetheimplicationsoftechnologytrendsfortheirstrategies,operations,andtalent.Weinviteyoutojoinusinunderstandinghowtechnologytrendsevolveandinfluencetheworld,andweinviteyoutoshareyourfeedbackwithusat:techforexecs@.

Abouttheauthors

MichaelChuiisaMcKinseyGlobalInstitutepartnerinMcKinsey’sBayAreaoffice,whereRogerRobertsisapartnerandLareinaYeeisaseniorpartner.

TheauthorswishtothankthefollowingMcKinseycolleaguesfortheircontributionstothisresearch:SoumyaBanerjee,ArjitaBhan,AndreasBreiter,TomBrennan,RyanBrukardt,KevinBuehler,ZinaCole,JacomoCorbo,ChrisDaehnick,IanDeBode,HugodelCampo,RayanElsharkawi,DelfinoGarcia,JustinGreis,LizGrennan,RobHamill,TinasheHandina,MartinHarrysson,DavidHarvey,KerstenHeineke,MattHigginson,NicolasHohn,AlharithHussein,MenaIssler,JesseKlempner,BenediktKloss,CharlieLewis,MartinLinder,NikoMohr,TimoM?ller,ChandrasekharPanda,MarkPatel,RobinRiedel,TanyaSheptock,SvenSmit,ShivamSrivastava,BhargsSrivathsan,BrookeStokes,KimberlyTe,KasiaTokarska,SelenaWang-Thomas,AmeeraWaterford,AllenWeinberg,LindeWester,OliviaWhite,PerezYeptho,andMatijaZesko.

TheyalsowishtothanktheexternalmembersoftheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil.

Introduction(continued)

Exhibit2

Mostindustrysectorsdisplayameaningfulassociationwithfiveormoretechnologytrends.

Relevanceoftrendtoindustry1MinimalrelevanceHighrelevance

SiliconAge

EngineeringTomorrow

Next-

Trust

Cloudand

Immersive-

generation

architectures

FutureofFutureof

AdvancededgerealityIndustria-softwareQuantumanddigitalFutureofbio-FutureofFutureofspacesustainable

connectivityAppliedAIcomputingtechnologieslizingMLdevelopmenttechnologiesidentityWeb3engineeringcleanenergymobilitytechnologiesconsumption

Aerospaceanddefense

Agriculture

Automotiveandassembly

Aviation,travel,andlogistics

Chemicals

Constructionandbuildingmaterials

Consumerpackagedgoods

Education

Electricpower,naturalgas,andutilities

Financialservices

Healthcaresystemsandservices

Informationtechnologyandelectronics

Mediaandentertainment

Metalsandmining

Oilandgas

Pharmaceuticalsandmedicalproducts

Publicandsocialsectors

Realestate

Retail

Telecommunications

1Relevanceestimatedqualitativelybyindustryexpertsbasedontrend’spotentialtoaffectanindustry;degreeofrelevanceisscaledatbothtrendandindustrylevels.

McKinsey&Company5

Introduction(continued)

McKinsey&Company6

Researchmethodology

Toassessthedevelopmentofeachtechnologytrend,ourteamcollecteddataonfivetangiblemeasuresofactivity:searchenginequeries,newspublications,patents,researchpublications,andinvestment.Foreachmeasure,weusedadefinedsetofdatasourcestofindoccurrencesofkeywordsassociatedwitheachofthe14trends,screenedthoseoccurrencesforvalidmentionsofactivity,andindexedtheresultingnumbersofmentionsona0–1scoringscalethatisrelativetothetrendsstudied.Theinnovationscorecombinesthepatentsandresearchscores;theinterestscorecombinesthenewsandsearchscores.(Whilewerecognizethataninterestscorecanbeinflatedbydeliberateeffortstostimulatenewsandsearchactivity,webelievethateachscorefairlyreflectstheextentofdiscussionanddebateaboutagiventrend.)Investmentmeasurestheflowsoffundingfromthecapitalmarketsintocompanieslinkedwiththetrend.Datasourcesforthescoresincludethefollowing:

—Patents.DataonpatentfilingsaresourcedfromGoogle

Patents.

—Research.Dataonresearchpublicationsaresourcedfrom

theLens().

—News.DataonnewspublicationsaresourcedfromFactiva.

—Searches.Dataonsearchenginequeriesaresourcedfrom

GoogleTrends.

—Investment.Dataonprivate-marketandpublic-marketcapital

raisesaresourcedfromPitchBook.

Theassociationsshownontheindustryheatmapwerederivedbyreviewingthenewsreportsoneachtrendforreferencestospecificcompanieswithineachofthe20industries.

Inaddition,weupdatedtheselectionanddefinitionoftrendsfromlastyear’sstudytoreflecttheevolutionoftechnologytrends:

—Trendsaddedsincelastyear’sstudy:industrializingmachine

learning,Web3,immersive-realitytechnologies,futureofmobility,andfutureofspacetechnologies

—Trendsnotcarriedoverfromlastyear’sstudy:next-level

processautomationandvirtualization(nowconsideredanimplicationofseveraltrends)andnext-generationmaterials(partiallyrepresentedbyothertrends)

—Trendswithadjusteddefinitions:next-generationsoftware

development(partlycoveredunderfutureofprogrammingin2021),trustarchitecturesanddigitalidentity(partlycoveredbytrustarchitecturein2021),futureofsustainableconsumption(disaggregatedfromfutureofcleantechnologies),andfutureofcleanenergy(disaggregatedfromfutureofcleantechnologies)

—Trendswithminorchangestodefinition:appliedAI,advanced

connectivity(previouslycalledfutureofconnectivity),cloudandedgecomputing(previouslycalleddistributedinfrastructure),quantumtechnologies(previouslycallednext-generationcomputing),andfutureofbioengineering(previouslycalledBioRevolution)

Trendsataglance

McKinsey&Company7

SiliconAge

Advancedconnectivity

AppliedAI

CloudandedgecomputingImmersive-realitytechnologies

Industrializingmachinelearning

Next-generationsoftwaredevelopmentQuantumtechnologies

Trustarchitecturesanddigitalidentity

Web3

EngineeringTomorrow

Futureofbioengineering

Futureofcleanenergy

Futureofmobility

Futureofspacetechnologies

Futureofsustainableconsumption

Trendsummaries:SiliconAge

McKinsey&Company8

McKinsey

TechnologyTrends

Outlook2022

Advancedconnectivity

August2022

Terrestrialwireless

Fixed

Advancedconnectivity

Whatisthetrendabout,andwhatarethemost

noteworthytechnologies?

5G/6Gcellular,wirelesslow-powernetworks,low-Earth-orbitsatellites,andothertechnologiessupportahostofdigitalsolutionsthatcanhelpnetworksincreasegeographiccoverage,reducelatency,reduceenergyconsumption,increasedatathroughput,andincreasespectrumefficiency.Thishasledtohigher-qualitynetworkaccessforconsumersandunlockednewusecasesforindustrialplayers

Non-

terrestrial

wireless

Opticalfiber

Mostreliablehigh-throughput,low-latencyconnectivityprovidedthroughphysicalwire

Connectivity

technology

Description

1Low-powerwide-area.

2Low-Earthorbit.

3Narrow-bandwidthInternetofThings.

LPWA1networks

Wirelesslow-power

networkswithwide-

areacoverage

supportingahigh

numberofconnected

devices(eg,NB-IoT,3

LTE-M,LoRa,Sigfox)

Wi-Fi6

Next-generationWi-Fi

(alsocalled“industrial

Wi-Fi”)withhigher

throughput,more

controllablequalityof

service,andalmost

“cellularlike”levelof

security

5G/6Gcellular

Next-generation

cellulartechnologies

withhigher-spectrum

efficiency,providing

high-bandwidth,low-

latencyservicesfor

consumersand

industrialverticals

LEO2satellite

constellations

Wide-areacoverage

withsignificantly

reducedlatencyvs

existingsatellite

offerings,dueto

lower-orbit

constellations

Source:McKinseyanalysisMcKinsey&Company10

Advancedconnectivity

Whyshouldleaderspayattention?

Asadvancedconnectivitybecomesbroadlyavailable,industrieswillfindinnovativeusecases

Monetizationopportunitiesfortechnologyandtelecomcompanies

Newcapabilitiesforindustrial

Connectivityasanenabler

companiesandconsumers

UpliftinB2B

Exponentially

Rapidincrease

revenuesfor

growingneedfor

innumberof

telecom

networkcapacity

connected

companies

devices

Impactfrom

industrialuse

cases

Closingthedigital

divideand

enhancingexisting

connections

Enhancedconnectivityisanenablerfornewandupcomingtechnologies

?IoTapplicationswillincreasetheneedfor5G,Wi-Fi6,andLPWAN

?MobileAR/VR1andcloudgamingareexamplesofconsumertechnologiesdependentonlow-latency,high-throughputwirelessnetworks

?Edgeandcloudcomputingtechnologies,coupledwithadvancedconnectivity,willunlockfullbenefitsofnext-gencomputingforconsumersandindustrialverticals

10–20%

20–25%

~51.9billion

$2trillion

~200million

Overallrevenue

Annualrateofglobal

Totalnumberof

EstimatedglobalGDP

Numberofindividuals

increasefrom

datacreation,which

connecteddevices

impact,drivenby

accessingtheinternet

developing5G-enabled

necessitatesaccessto

expectedin2025,up

operationalenhancements

forthefirsttimein2021,

premiumconnectivity

higher-bandwidth

from43billionin2020

resultingfromadvanced

duetonewconnectivity

andB2Busecases

1Augmentedreality/virtualreality.

networks

connectivityinjust4majorindustries

technologies

Source:DataSphereForecast,2020–2025,IDC;“Connectedworld:Anevolutioninconnectivitybeyondthe5Grevolution,”McKinsey,Feb2020;SimonKemp,McKinsey&Company11

“Digital2022:GlobalOverviewReport,”Datareportal,Jan26,2022;WorldwideGlobalDataSphereIoTDeviceandDataForecast,2021–2025,IDC

Source:McKinseyanalysisMcKinsey&Company12

Advancedconnectivity

Whyareadvanced-connectivitytechnologiesinteresting,comparedwithwhatalreadyexists?

Wecomparedthecurrentgenerationofadvancedconnectivitytechnologieswiththeirpredecessors

Summary

Previousgeneration

Next/currentgeneration

Opticalfiber

Rapidgrowthhasconnectedmillionsofpeopletohigh-speedinternet

Widelyusedcopperhadlowerthroughputandhighercostforanoperator

Modernopticfiberbroughtanexponentialincreaseinthroughput,muchlowerlatency,andlowermaintenancecostsfortelecomcompanies

LPWAN

StandardsdesignedfromthegroundupaimtooptimizeforIoTdevices

Relativelycostlystandardcellularconnectivityandlow-rangetechsuchasWi-Fi/BluetoothdrovemostIoTapplications

Purpose-builtLPWANconnectivitystandardsenablemoredevices,higherenergyefficiency,extendedcoverage,andlowerconnectivitycost

Wi-Fi6

Significantlyhigherindustryreadinesshasbeenenabledbyimprovementsinsecurityandconnectionquality

Wi-Fi5broughtamarkedimprovementinindoorwirelessconnectivityandamajorimprovementinspeedoverWi-Fi4

Wi-Fi6improvesuponpreviousstandardsinspeed,range,andsecurity,makingitmoresuitableforindustrialapplications

5G/6G

cellular

wireless

Advancedcellulartechnologystandardsarereplacing4Gnetworks,bringingnewfeaturesandaccesstonewspectrum

4Gcellulartechnologywithmoderatespeedprovidedtruemobilebroadbandaccessforthefirsttime

5G/6Goffersmuchhigherthroughput,devicedensity,spectrumefficiency,qualityofservice,andsecurityguaranteeswithverylowlatencyforimproveduserexperiences

LEOsatellite

Thesesatelliteconstellations

Satelliteconnectivitywasformilitary

LEOsatellitesaspiretoreducethecostof

constella-

ensurethatthemostremote

andindustrialapplications,withlimited

hardwareandincreaseaccessibilitytosatellite

tions

locationsonearthhavehigh-qualityconnectivity

consumerusageforinternetor

communication

internetconnectivitybyprovidingenhancedproximitytousers

McKinsey&Company13

Source:“Connectedworld:Anevolutioninconnectivitybeyondthe5Grevolution,”McKinsey,Feb2020

$1.2T–$2.0T

Estimated

globalGDP

impactfromdisruptioninjust4majorindustries

Advancedconnectivity

Whatdisruptionscouldthetrendenable?

Advancedconnectivitywillcatalyzetheadoptionoftechnologiestocreatedisruptionsinmanyindustries

Automotiveandassembly

Connectivitycouldenablepreventivemaintenance,improvenavigation,preventcollisions,enablevariouslevelsofvehicleautonomyandcarpoolingservices,andprovidepersonalizedinfotainmentofferings

Healthcaresystemsandservices

Low-latencynetworksandhighdensityofconnecteddevicesandsensorsmakeitpossibletomonitorpatientsathomeinrealtime,whichcouldbeamajorbooninthetreatmentofchronicdiseases

Aerospaceanddefense

Fromcriticalcommunicationsthroughnonterrestrialnetworks(NTN)toconnectedfieldassets,connectivityexpansionssuchas5Gnetworkscanvastlyboostcapabilitiesandperformanceforaerospaceanddefenseusers

Retail

Connectivityallowsretailerstomanageinventory,improvewarehouseoperations,coordinatesupplychains,eliminatecheckoutactivities,andaddaugmentedrealityforbetterproductinformation

Bridgingthedigitaldivide

Withbroader5G,opticfiber,andsatelliteinternetcoverage,thedigitaldivideforthenextbillioninternetusersisbeingbridged

Currentuserswillalsoseetheirexperiencesimprovesignificantlyasnetworkspeedsandlatencyimprove,enablingusecasespreviouslyconsideredunfeasible

Advancedconnectivity

Whatdisruptionscouldthetrendenable?(continued)

IndustryaffectedImpactfromtechnologytrend

TelecommunicationsIntroducenewB2CandB2Bserviceofferings,suchasimprovedcellularservicesforretailcustomers

andprivate5Gsolutionsforenterprisecustomers

Aviation,travel,andlogistics

TrackandtraceproductsandprovidedatatohelpcustomersoptimizesupplychainsusingLPWA

wirelesstechnology

Constructionandbuildingmaterials

BuildingInformationModelling(BIM),onsite3-Dprinting,andARapplicationswillallrequirehigh-speed,

low-latency,expansiveconnectivitynetworks.

InformationtechnologyDemandforsmartsensorsandIoT1-enableddeviceswillgrowasconnectivityimprovesandcostdrops

andelectronics

Mediaand

entertainment

Enablehighspeed,value-creatingentertainmentexperienceswithinlimiteddisruptionsasnewdevices

(eg,AR/VRdevices)enterthemarket

Metalsandmining

Expandcoveragetoenable“smartmining”anddigitization/automationpracticesthatwillenhanceproductivityandsafety

Electricpower,naturalgas,andutilities

Implementasmartutilitygridwithsmartmeters,sensors,andotherclouddevices

Oiland

gas

Leverageadvancedconnectivitytechnologiestopermitandoptimizereal-timemonitoringofdrillingandproductionactivities,aswellasdigitaltoolsandanalyticstooffshoreoperators

1InternetofThings.

Source:McKinseyanalysisMcKinsey&Company14

Advancedconnectivity

Risksanduncertainties

Ecosystemmaturity:Theecosystemsforevolving

connectivitymodalitiessuchasLPWAandLEOarematuring,butsofar,fewplayersprovidesolutionsandservicesinmarkets

Businessviability:Commoditizationofconnectivityhas

meantthatonlyafewtelecomcompanieshavebeenabletomonetize5GwellenoughtogetagoodROI;thetrajectoryofcapitalexpendituresandmaintenancecostswillalsobecloselywatched

Availability:Sometechnologies,suchashigh-band5Gand

LEO,maybelimitedbythelargecapitalinvestmentsrequiredtobuildoutnetworkswithcompetitivecoverageandperformanceformainstreamusecases

McKinsey&Company15

Whatshouldleadersconsiderwhen

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