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McKinsey
TechnologyTrends
Outlook2022
Report
August2022
Introduction
byMichaelChui,RogerRoberts,andLareinaYee
McKinsey&Company2
Technologycontinuestobeaprimarycatalystforchangeintheworld.Technologyadvancesgivebusinesses,governments,andsocial-sectorinstitutionsmorepossibilitiestolifttheirproductivity,inventorreinventofferings,andcontributetohumanity’swell-being.Andwhileitremainsdifficulttopredicthowtechnologytrendswillplayout,executivescanplanaheadbetterbytrackingthedevelopmentofnewtechnologies,anticipatinghowcompaniesmightusethem,andunderstandingthefactorsthataffectinnovationandadoption.
Tothatend,wehaveworkedwiththeinternalandexternalexpertsontheMcKinseyTechnologyCounciltoidentifyandinterpret14ofthemostsignificanttechnologytrendsunfoldingtoday(seesidebar“AbouttheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil”).Thisstudybuildsonthetrendresearchwesharedlastyear,addingfreshdataanddeeperanalysistoprovideamoregranularassessmentoftrendsintwothematicgroups:SiliconAge,whichencompassesdigitalandITtechnologies,andEngineeringTomorrow,whichencompassesphysicaltechnologiesindomainssuchasenergyandmobility.
Ouranalysisexaminessuchtangible,quantitativefactorsasinvestment,researchactivity,andnewscoveragetogaugethemomentumofeachtrend.Wealsoconducteddozensofinterviewsandperformedhundredsofhoursofresearchtolearnwhichindustriesareapttobenefitmostastheyabsorbthesetechnologies.And,recognizingthattrendscanspeedup,slowdown,orchangecourse,weexaminedtheuncertaintiesandquestionssurroundingeachtrend.
Thisresearchoverview,anaccompanyingonlineinteractive,andasetof14in-depthtrendprofileslayouttheseconsiderationsinmoredetailsothatexecutivescanbettercomprehendhowtheindividualtrendsaredevelopingandinteracting,andwhatthesedevelopmentsmightmeanfortheirorganizations.Lookingacrossthetrends,wealsoarrivedatsomegeneralobservationsthatleadersmightfindinstructive.
Newdynamics
First,severaltrendsthatarebasedonprovenandmaturetechnologies—namelyappliedAI,advancedconnectivity,futureofbioengineering,andcloudandedgecomputing—scoremorehighlyonquantitativemeasuresofinnovation,interest,andinvestmentthantrendsbasedontechnologiesthatarestillintheearlystagesofdevelopment.Thesetrendsalsotendtohaveviableapplicationsinmoreindustries,whichplacesthemclosertoastateofmainstreamadoptionthanothertrends(Exhibit1).
Thenextnoteworthygroupconsistsoftrendsthatarecloselyalignedwithsustainabilitypriorities.Thesetrends—whichwecallfutureofcleanenergy,futureofsustainableconsumption,andfutureofmobility—displayincreasinglevelsofinnovation,interest,andinvestment.Indeed,ofallthe14trendswestudied,theclean-energyandmobilitytrendsattractedthemostinvestment.Theyhavealsoemergedassignificantacrossmultipleindustries.
Outsidethefirsttwomajorcategories,newerandless-provendigitaltoolspowerasetofemergingtrends:industrializingmachinelearning,immersive-realitytechnologies,trust
architecturesanddigitalidentity,next-generationsoftwaredevelopment,andquantumtechnologies.Thesetrendscouldhavemajorbenefitsforbusinesses.Forexample,industrializingmachinelearning(ML)canshortentheproductiontimeframeforMLapplicationsby90percent.Butmuchworkmustbedonetodevelop,refine,andcommercializethetechnologiesthatunderpinthesetrends.Asaresult,it’sunclearhowlongitwilltakeforthesetrendstobeadoptedinmultiplesectors,letalonetorealizethepotentialseenbyproponents.
AbouttheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil
Technologyischangingeverythinginourworkandhomelives.WelaunchedtheMcKinseyTechnologyCounciltohelpunderstandwhatiscomingandhowitwillaffectusall—takinga“l(fā)ookaroundthecorner”towardthefuturesthattechnologychangecanunlockaswellasthetoughquestionsitraises.
Wewilllookataspectrumoftechnologies,fromcomputingtobiology,andtheirapplicationsacrossallsectors,fromminingtoentertainment.Welookatthescience,howittranslatesintoengineering,andwhenitwillacceleratetoimpact—atscale,andaroundtheworld.Wearedoingthiswithadiversegroupofmorethan50seniorleadersinMcKinsey,whocomefromawiderangeofscienceandtechnologybackgrounds,andorchestratingexchangesbetweenthemanddozensofleadingscientists,entrepreneurs,founders,andresearcherswhoareleadingpathbreakingworkintheirfields.
—LareinaYee,seniorpartner,McKinsey;chair,McKinseyTechnologyCouncil
Introduction
(continued)
Exhibit1
AppliedAIrecordedthehighestinnovationscoreofall14trends,whilecleanenergydrewthemostinterestandinvestment.
Innovation,interest,investment,andadoption,bytechnologytrend,2021
Innovation,1score(0=lower;1=higher)
1.0
AppliedAI
0.9
Industrializingmachinelearning
0.8
Advanced
connectivity
0.7
Futureofbioengineering
Trustarchitecturesanddigitalidentity
0.6
Immersive-reality
technologies
Cloudandedgecomputing
0.5
Quantumtechnologies
0.4
0.3
Futureofmobility
Futureofcleanenergy
0.2
Futureofsustainableconsumption
0.1
Web3
Futureofspacetechnologies
Next-generationsoftwaredevelopment
0
01.0
Interest,2score(0=lower;1=higher)
Color=adoptionratescore
(0=none;5=mainstream)
012345
Size=investment,$billion
7520
250
150
Note:Innovationandinterestscoresforthe14trendsarerelativetooneanother.All14trendsexhibithighlevelsofinnovationandinterestcomparedwithothertopicsandarealsoattractingsignificantinvestments($2billionminimumin2021).
1Theinnovationscorecombinesthe0–1scoresforpatentandresearch,whicharerelativetothetrendsstudied.Thepatentscoreisbasedonameasureofpatentfilings,andtheresearchscoreisbasedonameasureofresearchpublications.
2Theinterestscorecombinesthe0–1scoresfornewsandsearches,whicharerelativetothetrendsstudied.Thenewsscoreisbasedonameasureofnewspublications,andthesearchesscoreisbasedonameasureofsearchenginequeries.
McKinsey&Company3
Introduction(continued)
McKinsey&Company4
Despitetheuncertaintyofthesenewertrends,it’sapparentthatindustriesarebroadlyexposedtochangesresultingfromtechnologicalinnovationandthediffusionofnewtechnology-enabledbusinesspractices.Whenwelookedathowfrequentlynewsreportsmentionedcompaniesin20sectorsalongsidedifferenttrends,wefoundthatmostofthesesectorsdisplayameaningfulassociationwithfiveormoretrends.Thematureandsustainability-focusedtrendsdescribedaboveexhibitacloseconnectionwithmultipleindustries.Severalnascenttrendsalsoshowamoderatelycloseconnectionwithmanyindustries.Overall,weseethatpresscoverageconnectstheautomotive,manufacturing,telecommunications,andtechnologysectorscloselytoatleastonetrendandmoderatelytoseveralothers(Exhibit2).Weplantoexploretheeffectsthattechnologytrendsarehaving,andcouldhave,onsectorsinmoredepthoverthecomingmonths.(Formoreabouthowweperformedthiswork,pleaseseethesidebar“Researchmethodology.”)
Lookingahead
Weexpectchangeslikethesewillaccelerateandintensifyintheyearstocome,muchastheyhaveduringtheroughlythreedecadessincethestartoftheinternetrevolution.Thechangeswillnotonlyalterthecompetitivelandscapebutalsoexertever-morepowerfuleffectsonsociety:reshapingmarkets,boostingproductivity,spurringeconomicgrowth,andenhancinglivesandlivelihoods.
Whenwelookatthesetrends,whatimpressesusmorethananythingelseisthemassiveeffectthattechnologywillhaveoneverysector.Thenextfewdecadespromisetobeatimeinwhichtechnologiesprogressever-morequicklyfromsciencetoengineeringtoimpact—atscale,andaroundtheworld.Wealsoexpecttoseethemultiplyingeffectof“combinatorialinnovation,”asdifferenttechnologiescometogetherincreativeways.Forexample,thisishappeningnowasorganizationscombinedifferenttechnologiestocreatethemetaverseandthemanylayersthatmakeitup.
InformedbyourcolleaguesandthemembersoftheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil,weintendtopublishmoreabouttheeffectsoftechnologytrendsonparticularindustries,abouttheeffortsofcompaniestotapintotechnologytrends,andaboutthewaysthatbusinessleaderscanmanagetheimplicationsoftechnologytrendsfortheirstrategies,operations,andtalent.Weinviteyoutojoinusinunderstandinghowtechnologytrendsevolveandinfluencetheworld,andweinviteyoutoshareyourfeedbackwithusat:techforexecs@.
Abouttheauthors
MichaelChuiisaMcKinseyGlobalInstitutepartnerinMcKinsey’sBayAreaoffice,whereRogerRobertsisapartnerandLareinaYeeisaseniorpartner.
TheauthorswishtothankthefollowingMcKinseycolleaguesfortheircontributionstothisresearch:SoumyaBanerjee,ArjitaBhan,AndreasBreiter,TomBrennan,RyanBrukardt,KevinBuehler,ZinaCole,JacomoCorbo,ChrisDaehnick,IanDeBode,HugodelCampo,RayanElsharkawi,DelfinoGarcia,JustinGreis,LizGrennan,RobHamill,TinasheHandina,MartinHarrysson,DavidHarvey,KerstenHeineke,MattHigginson,NicolasHohn,AlharithHussein,MenaIssler,JesseKlempner,BenediktKloss,CharlieLewis,MartinLinder,NikoMohr,TimoM?ller,ChandrasekharPanda,MarkPatel,RobinRiedel,TanyaSheptock,SvenSmit,ShivamSrivastava,BhargsSrivathsan,BrookeStokes,KimberlyTe,KasiaTokarska,SelenaWang-Thomas,AmeeraWaterford,AllenWeinberg,LindeWester,OliviaWhite,PerezYeptho,andMatijaZesko.
TheyalsowishtothanktheexternalmembersoftheMcKinseyTechnologyCouncil.
Introduction(continued)
Exhibit2
Mostindustrysectorsdisplayameaningfulassociationwithfiveormoretechnologytrends.
Relevanceoftrendtoindustry1MinimalrelevanceHighrelevance
SiliconAge
EngineeringTomorrow
Next-
Trust
Cloudand
Immersive-
generation
architectures
FutureofFutureof
AdvancededgerealityIndustria-softwareQuantumanddigitalFutureofbio-FutureofFutureofspacesustainable
connectivityAppliedAIcomputingtechnologieslizingMLdevelopmenttechnologiesidentityWeb3engineeringcleanenergymobilitytechnologiesconsumption
Aerospaceanddefense
Agriculture
Automotiveandassembly
Aviation,travel,andlogistics
Chemicals
Constructionandbuildingmaterials
Consumerpackagedgoods
Education
Electricpower,naturalgas,andutilities
Financialservices
Healthcaresystemsandservices
Informationtechnologyandelectronics
Mediaandentertainment
Metalsandmining
Oilandgas
Pharmaceuticalsandmedicalproducts
Publicandsocialsectors
Realestate
Retail
Telecommunications
1Relevanceestimatedqualitativelybyindustryexpertsbasedontrend’spotentialtoaffectanindustry;degreeofrelevanceisscaledatbothtrendandindustrylevels.
McKinsey&Company5
Introduction(continued)
McKinsey&Company6
Researchmethodology
Toassessthedevelopmentofeachtechnologytrend,ourteamcollecteddataonfivetangiblemeasuresofactivity:searchenginequeries,newspublications,patents,researchpublications,andinvestment.Foreachmeasure,weusedadefinedsetofdatasourcestofindoccurrencesofkeywordsassociatedwitheachofthe14trends,screenedthoseoccurrencesforvalidmentionsofactivity,andindexedtheresultingnumbersofmentionsona0–1scoringscalethatisrelativetothetrendsstudied.Theinnovationscorecombinesthepatentsandresearchscores;theinterestscorecombinesthenewsandsearchscores.(Whilewerecognizethataninterestscorecanbeinflatedbydeliberateeffortstostimulatenewsandsearchactivity,webelievethateachscorefairlyreflectstheextentofdiscussionanddebateaboutagiventrend.)Investmentmeasurestheflowsoffundingfromthecapitalmarketsintocompanieslinkedwiththetrend.Datasourcesforthescoresincludethefollowing:
—Patents.DataonpatentfilingsaresourcedfromGoogle
Patents.
—Research.Dataonresearchpublicationsaresourcedfrom
theLens().
—News.DataonnewspublicationsaresourcedfromFactiva.
—Searches.Dataonsearchenginequeriesaresourcedfrom
GoogleTrends.
—Investment.Dataonprivate-marketandpublic-marketcapital
raisesaresourcedfromPitchBook.
Theassociationsshownontheindustryheatmapwerederivedbyreviewingthenewsreportsoneachtrendforreferencestospecificcompanieswithineachofthe20industries.
Inaddition,weupdatedtheselectionanddefinitionoftrendsfromlastyear’sstudytoreflecttheevolutionoftechnologytrends:
—Trendsaddedsincelastyear’sstudy:industrializingmachine
learning,Web3,immersive-realitytechnologies,futureofmobility,andfutureofspacetechnologies
—Trendsnotcarriedoverfromlastyear’sstudy:next-level
processautomationandvirtualization(nowconsideredanimplicationofseveraltrends)andnext-generationmaterials(partiallyrepresentedbyothertrends)
—Trendswithadjusteddefinitions:next-generationsoftware
development(partlycoveredunderfutureofprogrammingin2021),trustarchitecturesanddigitalidentity(partlycoveredbytrustarchitecturein2021),futureofsustainableconsumption(disaggregatedfromfutureofcleantechnologies),andfutureofcleanenergy(disaggregatedfromfutureofcleantechnologies)
—Trendswithminorchangestodefinition:appliedAI,advanced
connectivity(previouslycalledfutureofconnectivity),cloudandedgecomputing(previouslycalleddistributedinfrastructure),quantumtechnologies(previouslycallednext-generationcomputing),andfutureofbioengineering(previouslycalledBioRevolution)
Trendsataglance
McKinsey&Company7
SiliconAge
Advancedconnectivity
AppliedAI
CloudandedgecomputingImmersive-realitytechnologies
Industrializingmachinelearning
Next-generationsoftwaredevelopmentQuantumtechnologies
Trustarchitecturesanddigitalidentity
Web3
EngineeringTomorrow
Futureofbioengineering
Futureofcleanenergy
Futureofmobility
Futureofspacetechnologies
Futureofsustainableconsumption
Trendsummaries:SiliconAge
McKinsey&Company8
McKinsey
TechnologyTrends
Outlook2022
Advancedconnectivity
August2022
Terrestrialwireless
Fixed
Advancedconnectivity
Whatisthetrendabout,andwhatarethemost
noteworthytechnologies?
5G/6Gcellular,wirelesslow-powernetworks,low-Earth-orbitsatellites,andothertechnologiessupportahostofdigitalsolutionsthatcanhelpnetworksincreasegeographiccoverage,reducelatency,reduceenergyconsumption,increasedatathroughput,andincreasespectrumefficiency.Thishasledtohigher-qualitynetworkaccessforconsumersandunlockednewusecasesforindustrialplayers
Non-
terrestrial
wireless
Opticalfiber
Mostreliablehigh-throughput,low-latencyconnectivityprovidedthroughphysicalwire
Connectivity
technology
Description
1Low-powerwide-area.
2Low-Earthorbit.
3Narrow-bandwidthInternetofThings.
LPWA1networks
Wirelesslow-power
networkswithwide-
areacoverage
supportingahigh
numberofconnected
devices(eg,NB-IoT,3
LTE-M,LoRa,Sigfox)
Wi-Fi6
Next-generationWi-Fi
(alsocalled“industrial
Wi-Fi”)withhigher
throughput,more
controllablequalityof
service,andalmost
“cellularlike”levelof
security
5G/6Gcellular
Next-generation
cellulartechnologies
withhigher-spectrum
efficiency,providing
high-bandwidth,low-
latencyservicesfor
consumersand
industrialverticals
LEO2satellite
constellations
Wide-areacoverage
withsignificantly
reducedlatencyvs
existingsatellite
offerings,dueto
lower-orbit
constellations
Source:McKinseyanalysisMcKinsey&Company10
Advancedconnectivity
Whyshouldleaderspayattention?
Asadvancedconnectivitybecomesbroadlyavailable,industrieswillfindinnovativeusecases
Monetizationopportunitiesfortechnologyandtelecomcompanies
Newcapabilitiesforindustrial
Connectivityasanenabler
companiesandconsumers
UpliftinB2B
Exponentially
Rapidincrease
revenuesfor
growingneedfor
innumberof
telecom
networkcapacity
connected
companies
devices
Impactfrom
industrialuse
cases
Closingthedigital
divideand
enhancingexisting
connections
Enhancedconnectivityisanenablerfornewandupcomingtechnologies
?IoTapplicationswillincreasetheneedfor5G,Wi-Fi6,andLPWAN
?MobileAR/VR1andcloudgamingareexamplesofconsumertechnologiesdependentonlow-latency,high-throughputwirelessnetworks
?Edgeandcloudcomputingtechnologies,coupledwithadvancedconnectivity,willunlockfullbenefitsofnext-gencomputingforconsumersandindustrialverticals
10–20%
20–25%
~51.9billion
$2trillion
~200million
Overallrevenue
Annualrateofglobal
Totalnumberof
EstimatedglobalGDP
Numberofindividuals
increasefrom
datacreation,which
connecteddevices
impact,drivenby
accessingtheinternet
developing5G-enabled
necessitatesaccessto
expectedin2025,up
operationalenhancements
forthefirsttimein2021,
premiumconnectivity
higher-bandwidth
from43billionin2020
resultingfromadvanced
duetonewconnectivity
andB2Busecases
1Augmentedreality/virtualreality.
networks
connectivityinjust4majorindustries
technologies
Source:DataSphereForecast,2020–2025,IDC;“Connectedworld:Anevolutioninconnectivitybeyondthe5Grevolution,”McKinsey,Feb2020;SimonKemp,McKinsey&Company11
“Digital2022:GlobalOverviewReport,”Datareportal,Jan26,2022;WorldwideGlobalDataSphereIoTDeviceandDataForecast,2021–2025,IDC
Source:McKinseyanalysisMcKinsey&Company12
Advancedconnectivity
Whyareadvanced-connectivitytechnologiesinteresting,comparedwithwhatalreadyexists?
Wecomparedthecurrentgenerationofadvancedconnectivitytechnologieswiththeirpredecessors
Summary
Previousgeneration
Next/currentgeneration
Opticalfiber
Rapidgrowthhasconnectedmillionsofpeopletohigh-speedinternet
Widelyusedcopperhadlowerthroughputandhighercostforanoperator
Modernopticfiberbroughtanexponentialincreaseinthroughput,muchlowerlatency,andlowermaintenancecostsfortelecomcompanies
LPWAN
StandardsdesignedfromthegroundupaimtooptimizeforIoTdevices
Relativelycostlystandardcellularconnectivityandlow-rangetechsuchasWi-Fi/BluetoothdrovemostIoTapplications
Purpose-builtLPWANconnectivitystandardsenablemoredevices,higherenergyefficiency,extendedcoverage,andlowerconnectivitycost
Wi-Fi6
Significantlyhigherindustryreadinesshasbeenenabledbyimprovementsinsecurityandconnectionquality
Wi-Fi5broughtamarkedimprovementinindoorwirelessconnectivityandamajorimprovementinspeedoverWi-Fi4
Wi-Fi6improvesuponpreviousstandardsinspeed,range,andsecurity,makingitmoresuitableforindustrialapplications
5G/6G
cellular
wireless
Advancedcellulartechnologystandardsarereplacing4Gnetworks,bringingnewfeaturesandaccesstonewspectrum
4Gcellulartechnologywithmoderatespeedprovidedtruemobilebroadbandaccessforthefirsttime
5G/6Goffersmuchhigherthroughput,devicedensity,spectrumefficiency,qualityofservice,andsecurityguaranteeswithverylowlatencyforimproveduserexperiences
LEOsatellite
Thesesatelliteconstellations
Satelliteconnectivitywasformilitary
LEOsatellitesaspiretoreducethecostof
constella-
ensurethatthemostremote
andindustrialapplications,withlimited
hardwareandincreaseaccessibilitytosatellite
tions
locationsonearthhavehigh-qualityconnectivity
consumerusageforinternetor
communication
internetconnectivitybyprovidingenhancedproximitytousers
McKinsey&Company13
Source:“Connectedworld:Anevolutioninconnectivitybeyondthe5Grevolution,”McKinsey,Feb2020
$1.2T–$2.0T
Estimated
globalGDP
impactfromdisruptioninjust4majorindustries
Advancedconnectivity
Whatdisruptionscouldthetrendenable?
Advancedconnectivitywillcatalyzetheadoptionoftechnologiestocreatedisruptionsinmanyindustries
Automotiveandassembly
Connectivitycouldenablepreventivemaintenance,improvenavigation,preventcollisions,enablevariouslevelsofvehicleautonomyandcarpoolingservices,andprovidepersonalizedinfotainmentofferings
Healthcaresystemsandservices
Low-latencynetworksandhighdensityofconnecteddevicesandsensorsmakeitpossibletomonitorpatientsathomeinrealtime,whichcouldbeamajorbooninthetreatmentofchronicdiseases
Aerospaceanddefense
Fromcriticalcommunicationsthroughnonterrestrialnetworks(NTN)toconnectedfieldassets,connectivityexpansionssuchas5Gnetworkscanvastlyboostcapabilitiesandperformanceforaerospaceanddefenseusers
Retail
Connectivityallowsretailerstomanageinventory,improvewarehouseoperations,coordinatesupplychains,eliminatecheckoutactivities,andaddaugmentedrealityforbetterproductinformation
Bridgingthedigitaldivide
Withbroader5G,opticfiber,andsatelliteinternetcoverage,thedigitaldivideforthenextbillioninternetusersisbeingbridged
Currentuserswillalsoseetheirexperiencesimprovesignificantlyasnetworkspeedsandlatencyimprove,enablingusecasespreviouslyconsideredunfeasible
Advancedconnectivity
Whatdisruptionscouldthetrendenable?(continued)
IndustryaffectedImpactfromtechnologytrend
TelecommunicationsIntroducenewB2CandB2Bserviceofferings,suchasimprovedcellularservicesforretailcustomers
andprivate5Gsolutionsforenterprisecustomers
Aviation,travel,andlogistics
TrackandtraceproductsandprovidedatatohelpcustomersoptimizesupplychainsusingLPWA
wirelesstechnology
Constructionandbuildingmaterials
BuildingInformationModelling(BIM),onsite3-Dprinting,andARapplicationswillallrequirehigh-speed,
low-latency,expansiveconnectivitynetworks.
InformationtechnologyDemandforsmartsensorsandIoT1-enableddeviceswillgrowasconnectivityimprovesandcostdrops
andelectronics
Mediaand
entertainment
Enablehighspeed,value-creatingentertainmentexperienceswithinlimiteddisruptionsasnewdevices
(eg,AR/VRdevices)enterthemarket
Metalsandmining
Expandcoveragetoenable“smartmining”anddigitization/automationpracticesthatwillenhanceproductivityandsafety
Electricpower,naturalgas,andutilities
Implementasmartutilitygridwithsmartmeters,sensors,andotherclouddevices
Oiland
gas
Leverageadvancedconnectivitytechnologiestopermitandoptimizereal-timemonitoringofdrillingandproductionactivities,aswellasdigitaltoolsandanalyticstooffshoreoperators
1InternetofThings.
Source:McKinseyanalysisMcKinsey&Company14
Advancedconnectivity
Risksanduncertainties
Ecosystemmaturity:Theecosystemsforevolving
connectivitymodalitiessuchasLPWAandLEOarematuring,butsofar,fewplayersprovidesolutionsandservicesinmarkets
Businessviability:Commoditizationofconnectivityhas
meantthatonlyafewtelecomcompanieshavebeenabletomonetize5GwellenoughtogetagoodROI;thetrajectoryofcapitalexpendituresandmaintenancecostswillalsobecloselywatched
Availability:Sometechnologies,suchashigh-band5Gand
LEO,maybelimitedbythelargecapitalinvestmentsrequiredtobuildoutnetworkswithcompetitivecoverageandperformanceformainstreamusecases
McKinsey&Company15
Whatshouldleadersconsiderwhen
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