供給鏈預(yù)計習題

本文格式為Word版，下載可任意編輯——供給鏈預(yù)計習題2023-2023年我國社會消費品零售總額數(shù)據(jù)如下（單位：億元）。月/年202320232023202320232023202320231977.51192.21602.21909.12288.52549.52662.12774.72892.51162.71491.51911.22213.52306.42538.42805.03942.31167.51533.31860.12130.92279.72403.12627.04941.31170.41548.71854.82100.52252.72356.82572.05962.21213.71585.41898.32108.22265.22364.02637.061005.71281.11639.71966.02164.72326.02428.82645.07963.81251.51623.61888.72102.52286.12380.32597.08959.81286.01637.11916.42104.42314.62410.92636.091023.31396.21756.02083.52239.62443.12604.32854.0101051.11444.11818.02148.32348.02536.02743.93029.0111102.01553.81935.22290.12454.92652.22781.53108.0121415.51932.22389.52848.62881.73131.43405.73680.0

（1）繪制時間序列線圖，說明該序列的特點。

（2）利用分解預(yù)計法預(yù)計2023年各月份的社會消費品零售總額。1977.5977.511005.1510.972一月1.0363190.1712892.5178541026.7420.869二月0.9793035.6753942.32826.991048.3320.899三月0.9532974.9484941.33765.2161069.9230.880四月0.9352938.1075962.24811251091.5140.882五月0.9402975.05661005.76034.2361113.1050.904六月0.9593054.137963.86746.6491134.6960.849七月0.9242963.8648959.87678.4641156.2860.830八月0.9242982.07591023.39209.7811177.8770.869九月0.9813188.739101051.1105111001199.4680.876十月1.0103304.847111102121221211221.0590.902十一月1.0473449.663121415.5169861441242.6501.139十二月1.2644190.98

131192.215498.61691264.2400.943141162.716277.81961285.8310.904151167.517512.52251307.4220.893161170.418726.42561329.0130.881171213.720632.92891350.6040.899181281.123059.83241372.1940.934191251.523778.53611393.7850.898201286257204001415.3760.909

979899100101102103104105106107108

211396.229320.2221444.131770.2231553.835737.4241932.246372.8251602.240055261491.538779271533.341399.1281548.743363.6291585.445976.6301639.749191311623.650331.6321637.152387.23317565794834181861812351935.267732362389.586022371909.170636.7381911.272625.6391860.172543.9401854.874192411898.377830.342196682572431888.781214.1441916.484321.6452083.593757.5462148.398821.8472290.1107634.7482848.6136732.8492288.5112136.5502213.5110675512130.9108675.9522100.5109226532108.2111734.6542164.7116893.8552102.5115637.5562104.4117846.4572239.6127657.2582348136184592454.9144839.1602881.7172902612549.5155519.5622306.4142996.84411436.9674841458.5585291480.1485761501.7396251523.3306761544.9217291566.5117841588.1028411609.6939001631.2849611652.87510241674.46510891696.05611561717.64712251739.23812961760.82913691782.41914441804.01015211825.60116001847.19216811868.78317641890.37318491911.96419361933.5552025195573722091998.32723042023.91824012041.50925002063.10026012084.69127042106.28128092127.87229162149.46330252171.05431362192.64432492214.23533642235.82634812257.41736002279.00837212300.59838442322.1890.9720.9901.0501.2871.0520.9650.9790.9750.9851.0050.9820.9781.0351.0581.1131.3571.0711.0591.0191.0041.0161.0400.9880.9911.0661.0871.1461.4101.1211.0731.0220.9970.9911.0070.9680.9601.0111.0501.0871.2641.1080.993

143621.1

2252.7144172.82265.214723823261535162286.1153168.72314.6157392.82443.1168573.925361775202652.2188306.22279.76364656667686970712343.7802365.3712386.9622408.5522430.1432451.7342473.3252494.9162516.5063969

409642254356448946244761490050410.9730.9520.9490.9660.9410.9440.9881.0161.054723131.4225460.8732662.1194333.3742538.4187841.6752403.1180232.5762356.8179116.8772364182028782428.8189446.4792380.3188043.7802410.9192872812604.3210948.3822743.9224999.8832781.5230864.5843405.7286078.8852774.7235849.5862805241230872627228549882572226336892637234693902645238050912597236327922636242512932854265422943029284726953108295260963680353280

4656194948.511046676b=21.59a=983.56y=983.56+21.59x

5184532954765625577659296084624164006561672468897056722573967569774479218100828184648649883690259216

2995362538.0972559.6882581.2792602.8702624.4602646.0512667.6422689.2332710.8242732.4142754.0052775.5962797.1872818.7772840.3682861.9592883.5502905.1412926.7312948.3222969.9132991.5043013.0953034.6853056.276

1.2341.0400.9830.9230.8980.8930.9100.8850.8890.9530.9961.0021.2180.9840.9880.9180.8920.9080.9040.8810.8880.9541.0051.0241.204

40003700340031002800250022023900160013001000700020406080100120y=21.591x+983.56系列1

線性(系列1)

下面是一家物流企業(yè)過去18個月的營業(yè)額數(shù)據(jù)月份123456789營業(yè)額（萬元）295283322355286379381431424月份101112131415161718營業(yè)額（萬元）473470481449544601587644660

（1）用3期移動平均法預(yù)計第19個月的營業(yè)額。

（2）采用指數(shù)平滑法，分別用平滑系數(shù)a=0.3、a=0.4和a=0.5預(yù)計各月的營業(yè)額，分析預(yù)計誤差，說明用哪一個平滑系數(shù)預(yù)計更適合？

123456789295295.00295.00295.000.000.000.00283295.00295.00295.0012.0012.0012.00322300.00291.40290.20289.0030.6031.8033.00355320.00300.58302.92305.5054.4252.0849.50286321.00316.91323.75330.2530.9137.7544.25379340.00307.63308.65308.1371.3770.3570.88381348.67329.04336.79343.5651.9644.2137.44431397.00344.63354.47362.2886.3776.5368.72424412.00370.54385.08396.6453.4638.9227.3610473442.67386.58400.65410.3286.4272.3511470455.67412.51429.59441.6657.4940.4112481474.67429.75445.75455.8351.2535.2513449466.67445.13459.85468.423.8710.8514544491.33446.29455.51458.7197.7188.4915601531.33475.60490.91501.35125.40110.0916587577.33513.22534.94551.1873.7852.0617644610.67535.36555.77569.09108.6488.2318660630.33567.95591.06606.5492.0568.94652.001087.69930.300.30.7060.4351.680.40.60

0.50.50700額業(yè)650營600550500450400350300月份25002468101214161820系列1系列2系列3系列4

62.6828.3425.1719.4285.2999.6535.8274.9153.46

827.87

45.99

某建材公司在作銷售預(yù)計時，發(fā)現(xiàn)一個地區(qū)每年塑料的需求量和該地區(qū)新開工的工程項目數(shù)量有關(guān)，具體數(shù)據(jù)如表所示。試利用回歸分析法預(yù)計2023年的需求量。時間19992000202320232023202320232023Y=-9.78+5.39x新開工項目數(shù)量1610392126241536塑料年需求量70502108015010090180198919901991199219931994199519961997

a=b=y=

130002340001200018000011000132000