金融學(xué)外文翻譯加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長：基于中國的實(shí)證分析國際貿(mào)易

本科畢業(yè)論文外文原文外文題目：ProcessingTradeandEconomicGrowth:EvidencefromChina出處：The2ndInternationalConferenceonValeEngineeringandValeManagement作者：Xi-junWangAbstract：Presently,processingtradehasbecomeChina’smajortrademethod．InordertomakecleartherelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeandChina’seconomicgrowth,thispaper,basedonChina’sstatisticaldatafrom1985to2007，byemployingco-integrationtheory,Grangercausalitytestanderrorcorrectionmodel(ECM)，respectivelyinvestigatestherelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeimport,processingtradeexportandeconomicgrowth．TheempiricalresultdenotesthatthereexistsunilateralGrangercausalityrelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeimportandeconomicgrowth．ProcessingtradeimportinfluencesthegrowthofGDP.Forashortperiod,processingtradeimportandprocessingtradeexportbothspurthegrowthofGDP,buttheimpactiscomparativelylow；foralongperiod,processingtradeimportremarkablypromotesthegrowthofGDP,whileprocessingtradeexportrestrictsthegrowthofGDP．1.IntroductionSincethereformandopenpoficy,China'sforeigntradehasbeendevelopingrapidly.Atpresengforeigntrade，investmentandconsumptionhavebeen“thethreecarriages”drivingthegrowthofChina’seconomy.Onthebasisofdevelopingthegeneraltrade，ourcountryactivelyimplementsthepolicyofencouragingthedevelopmentofprocessingtradesoastomakeitrealizethebreakthroughdevelopmentPresently,processingtradehasbecomeChina’smajortrademethod，playinganextremelyimportantroleinimpulsingtheadjustmentandperfectionoftheindustrystructure，spurringtheimprovementoftheprocessingtechniqueandtheincreasingtheopportunityoflaboremployment．Therebyhowtomeasureprocessingtrade’scontributiontoChina’seconomicgrowthfromanobjectiveperspectivebecomesaveryimportantproblem．Sincethepositionoftheprocessingtradeindevelopedcountriesisnotremarkable，thusabroadtherearefewresearchesontherelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeandnationaleconomy．Sincereformandopening，processingtradehasbeenincreasingswiftlyinourcountry,andthereismuchresearchonprocessingtradeathome．TheempiricalanalysisofLiuZhi-zhongandWangYao-zhong(2003)showsthatthedegreeofprocessingtrade’scontributiontoeconomicgrowthanditsimpulsetoeconomicgrowthareratherlow；theempiricalresultofYahGuo-qingandChenLi-jing(2005)demonstratesthatwheneverChina’sprocessingtradeincreasesby1percent,GDPwillincreaseby0.761percent，andthedegreeofprocessingtrade’scontributionequals53percent；SunChu-ren，ShenYu-liangandZhaoHong-jun(2006)calculatesthetotalcontributionofprocessingtradeimportandothertradeimporttoeconomicgrowthisnegative；ZhuQi-rong(2007)，byemployinglinearregressionapproach，drawstheconclusionthattheincreaseofcornmontradeimportandexportandtheprocessingtradeexportbothimpulsetheincreaseofGDP,whiletheincreaseofprocessingtradeimportwillcausenegativegrowthofGDP；YangSong-liandYuHai-shan(2006)makeanempiricalanalysisofprocessingtrade’seffectonZhejiang’seconomicgrowthbycomprehensivelyemployingprocessingtradevalue-addedfactor,thepromotingdegreeofprocessingtradetoZhejiang’sGDPandotheranalyzingmethodsuchaslinearregression.Obviously,theinternalacademiccommunityholdsdifferentbeliefsabouttherelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeandeconomicgrowth；meanwhile，theseresearchliteraturesdonotillustratethelong-runandshort-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeandeconomicgrowthandtheimpactmechanism．Therefore，thispaperwillanalyzetherelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeandeconomicgrowthbyemployingmethodsofco-integrationtheory,Grangercausalitytestanderrorcorrectionmodel(ECM)，etc．2.MethodologyThepurposeofempiricalanalysisinthispaperistotesttherelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeandeconomicgrowthbymeansofco-integrationtechnique．Co-integrationtechniqueisanewonewhichisappliedtodynamicmodels’enactment,estimationandverification．Itmainlyanalyzesthenonstationarityoftimeseries，buildnonstationaryvariableeconomicmodel，andexplorethelong-termequilibriumrelationshipbetweennonstationaryvariables．Firstly,thepaperhasthestationarytestoftimevariableseries；secondly,thepaperteststheco-integrationrelationshipbetweenthevariables；thirdly,thepaperbuildserrorcorrectionmodel,whichcallnotonlyexaminethelong-termrelationshipbetweenvariables，butalsoexaminetheshort-termcauseandeffectrelationship；finally,thepapermakeafurthertestandanalysisofcauseandeffectrelationshipbetweentimevariableseriesinvolvedinco-integrationrelationship．2.1.StationaryTestThetime-seriesdataofmanyeconomicindicatorsdonothavethefeatureofstableprocess．Forthetime-seriesdataformedinnonstationaryprocess，traditionalmathematicalstatisticsandeconometricsmethodsseempowerless．Besidesusingsequentialautocorrelationanalyticchart,modemeconometricsjudgesthestationarityoftimeseriesbyamoreformalapproach,thatis，tohavestatisticaltests．Unitroottestisoneofthestatisticaltestswhichisuniversallyapplied．Thisapproachjudgesthestationarityofacertaintimeseriesthroughjudgingwhetherithasrootsofunity.CommonlyusedhypothesistestingapproachesincludeDFtest,ADFtestandPPtestThispaper,byemployingADFtest,givesastationaritytestoftimeseries．ADFtestisachievedbyDickeyandFullerwhoimprovedDFtesttoensurethecharacteristicofleuco-noiseofrandominterferenceitem．ModelexpressionsofADFtestgoasfollows:(1)(2)(3)Where，tistimevariable，whichstandsforacertaintrendthattimeseriesvaryastimegoesby．Nullhypothesis,alternativehypothesis.ThetextbeginswithExpression(1)，thenExpression(2)，andatlastwithExpression(3)．Wheneverthetestrcjectsnullhypothesis，thatistheoriginalseriesdoesnotincludeunitroots,workingasstationaryseries，thetestisfinished．Otherwise，itistobecontinueduntilExpression(1)hasbeentested.Whennoneofthetestresultsofthethreemodelscanrejectnullhypothesis，itisbelievedthatthetimeseriesisstationary．2.2.Co-IntegrationTestInthedomainofeconomy,previousmodelingechniquehashypothesisofdynamicstationarity,andmpiricalanalysisbasedontimeseriesassumesthatimeseriesisstationary．Whileinfact,economictimeseriesisusuallynonstationary．EngleandGranger(1987)pointthatifthelinearcombinationoftwononstationarytimeseriesissmtionary,thetwononstationarytimeserieshaveaco-integrationrelationship，thatis，thetwoserieshaveacommontimetendency，soitcanbeviewedthatthereexistsalong-runequilibriumrelationship．Therefore，wecanapplyco-integrationtestapproachtotestwhetherthereexiststhelong-termequilibriumco-integrationrelationshipbetweenseries．Presently,co-integrationtestmethodsmainlyincludeEngle-Granger’stwo-stageCo-integrationtestandJohansenCo-integrationtest．Engle-GrangerCo-integrationtestwasputforwardbyEngleandGrangeLwhichonlytakesthebivariantprocessintoaccount,andthisprocesscallmerelypossessnoughtoronlyoneco-integrationvector．WhileJohansenCo-integrationtestwasfirstputforwardbyJohansenandJuselius，whichisappliedtotesttheco-integrationrelationshipbetweenmultivariablesbyusingmaximumlikelihoodestimationinvectorautoregression(VAR)system．Thispaper,byadoptingEngle-Granger’stwo-stageCo-integrationtestmethod，hasaco-integrationtestoftimeseries．ThestepsofEngle-Granger’stwo-stagetestmethodgoasfollows：Step1：usecommonleastsquaremethod(OLS)toestimatethelong-termstaticregressionequationandcalculatenon-equilibriumerror．Step2：useADFstatisticstesttoestimatethestationarityoftheresidualerrorseries．Iftheresidualerrorseriesisestimatedtobestationary,itsuggeststhereexistsaco-integrationrelationshipbetweenvariables．2.3.ErrorCorrectionModel(ECM)ErrorcorrectionmodelwasfirstlyadoptedbySargon，andthenitsapplicationwaspromotedbyHerdry,AndersonandDavidson．Themainpurposeoftheinitialapplicationoferror-correctionmodelistosetupshort-termdynamicmodelsoastomakeupfortheshortcomingsoflong-termstaticmodel．Itcanreflectthemechanismoftheshort-termdeviationtolong-runequilibriumaswellasthelong·runequilibriumrelationshipbetweendifferenttimeseries．Inrecentyears，error-correctionmethodhasbecomeoneoftheprevailinganalyzingmethodsinapplyingeconomicmeasurementtimeseriesmodel．Adoptingthemethodoferror-correctionmodelcan,throughitslong-termequilibriumitem,concentrativelydisplaysthemodificationmechanismofexplainedvariablestonon-equilibrium，drivenbythelong-termequilibriumruleineconomictheory．Meanwhile，astheredoesnotusuallyexistremarkablestatisticrelativitybetweenshort-termdynamicperturbationitemandlong-termequilibriumitem，thuswecanmakeaneconomicexplanationrespectively．Becausesolongasweexplainthereisaco-integrationrelationshipbetweenvariablesandexplainedvariables，theresurelyexiststheonlyGranger-causalityrelationship，tosetupmodelsbyapplyingerror-correctionmethodwon’tresultin“falseregression”,asisusuallyshownintraditionaleconotniomeasurementmodelbuilding，therefore，itcallclearlyrevealthemechanismofactionbetweeneconomicvariables．GrangerFormulationTheoremputforwardbyEngleandGranger(1987)suggeststhatiftwoariablesXandYareco-integration，thereisalwaysanerrorcorrectionmodel(ECM)todefinetheirshort-termnon-equilibriumrelationship．Thatis：Whereisnon-equilibriumerroritem(long-runequalizationdeviation)；isshort-runadjustmentparameter．Error-correctionmodelisshort-termdynamicone．a(chǎn)nditcannotreachthestateofbeingequilibrium．Thus，adderror-correctioniteminittomakeYandXgraduallyapproachthestateoflong-termequilibrium．hasthecontrollingandamendingeffecton;whent-1works，Yismorethanitslong-runequilibriumsolution，ispositive，thenisnegative，makingdecrease；whilewhent-1works，Yislessthanitslong-termequilibriumsolution，isnegative，thenispositive，makingincrease.2.4.GrangerCausalityTestBasedonerrorcorrectionmodel(ECM),wecanapplyGrangercausalitytesttohaveatestofbothlong-termandshort-termcauseandeffectrelationship.GrangercausalitytestwasputforwardbyGranger(1969)andSims(1972)，withitsbasicideathatthepredictivevalidityofthevariableYundertheconditionofincludingthepastinformationofthevariablesXandYissuperiortothatofonlyconsideringthepastinformationofY,thatis，thevariableXhelpstoexplainY’sfuturevariation,soXistheGranger-causalityofY,orelseitiscallednon-Granger-causality.3.Conclusion1)GrangercausalitytestshowsthatthereexistsunilateralGrangercausalityrelationshipbetweenprocessingtradeimportandeconomicgrowth.ProcessingtradeimportinfluencesthegrowthofGDP.2)Foralongperiod,thereexistslongtermstableequilibriumrelationshipbetweenGDPandprocessingtrade，processingtradeimportremarkablypromotesthegrowthofGDP,whileprocessingtradeexportrestrictsthegrowthofGDEWheneverprocessingtradeexportincreasesby1%，GDPwilldecreaseby0.39365%%；wheneverprocessingtradeimportincreasesbyl%，GDPwillincreaseby1.1134%.Forashortperiod，processingtradeimportandprocessingtradeexportbothspurthegrowthofGDP,buttheimpactiscomparativelylow.3)ThercasonwhyprocessingtradeexportbringsadverseimpactonChina’seconomicgrowthisasfollows:firstly,processingtrade’sforwardandbackwardeffectsoninternaleconomyarelimited；secondly,china’sprocessingtradeliesatthebottom-endinglobalmanufacturingsystem，whichrestrictstheoptimizationandmodulationofourcountry’seconomicstructure；thirdly,thesparepartsandrawmaterialsofprocessingtradeexcessivelydependonimport,andintermediateproductscannotrealizeimportsubstitution,thusweakeningtheinter-industryofprocessingtradeanditsdrivingimpactandevenbringingnegativeimpactondomesticrelevantmaterialsandtheintermediateproductindustry,whichaccordinglyinfluencesprocessingtrade’sdrivingeffectonChina’seconomy.本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目：ProcessingTradeandEconomicGrowth:EvidencefromChina出處：The2ndInternationalConferenceonValeEngineeringandValeManagement作者：Xi-junWang譯文：加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長：基于中國的實(shí)證分析摘要：目前，加工貿(mào)易已成為中國的主要貿(mào)易方式。為了弄清加工貿(mào)易與中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系，本文以中國1985年到2007年的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，通過采用協(xié)整理論，格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)和誤差修正模型（ECM），分別考察了加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口和出口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系。實(shí)證結(jié)果表示加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間存在單方面的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口影響了GDP的增長。在短期內(nèi)，加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口和加工貿(mào)易出口均刺激了GDP的增長，但這種影響比較低；很長一段時(shí)間里，加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口顯著地促進(jìn)了GDP的增長，而加工貿(mào)易出口限制了GDP的增長。1、介紹自改革開放以來，中國的對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展迅速。目前，對外貿(mào)易、投資和消費(fèi)成為了推動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的“三架馬車”。在發(fā)展一般貿(mào)易的基礎(chǔ)上，我國積極實(shí)施了鼓勵(lì)加工貿(mào)易發(fā)展的政策，以使其實(shí)現(xiàn)突破性的發(fā)展。目前，加工貿(mào)易已成為中國的主要貿(mào)易方式，發(fā)揮著調(diào)節(jié)和完善工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的重要作用，刺激了加工技術(shù)的改善和增加了勞動就業(yè)的機(jī)會。因此如何從一個(gè)客觀的角度去衡量加工貿(mào)易對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)，已成一個(gè)非常重要的問題。由于從發(fā)達(dá)國家的立場來看加工貿(mào)易是不引人注目的，因而在國外很少有對加工貿(mào)易與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系研究。改革開放以來，加工貿(mào)易在我國迅速增加，并且在我國有有關(guān)加工貿(mào)易的大量研究。劉治中和王耀中（2003）的實(shí)證分析顯示，加工貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)程度和它對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的推動相對較低，在郭清和陳李京（2005）的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，每當(dāng)中國的加工貿(mào)易增長1%，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將增加0.761%，并且加工貿(mào)易的貢獻(xiàn)度同樣為53%；孫楚仁、沈玉良和趙泓君（2006）計(jì)算出，加工貿(mào)易和其他貿(mào)易進(jìn)口對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的總貢獻(xiàn)是負(fù)的；朱啟镕（2007）運(yùn)用線性回歸方法，得出的結(jié)論是，一般貿(mào)易進(jìn)口與出口及加工貿(mào)易出口兩者的增長都推動了GDP，而加工貿(mào)易進(jìn)口的增加將導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值負(fù)增長；楊宋麗和于海山（2006）作出關(guān)于加工貿(mào)易對浙江經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的實(shí)證分析，通過包括就業(yè)增長、貿(mào)易增值因素、加工貿(mào)易對浙江GDP的促進(jìn)程度和其他分析方法如線性回歸分析方法。顯然，內(nèi)部學(xué)術(shù)界對加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系持有不同的看法；同時(shí)，這些研究文獻(xiàn)沒有說明加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間長期和短期的平衡關(guān)系及影響機(jī)制。因此，本文將通過就業(yè)協(xié)整理論、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、和誤差修正模型（ECM）等方法來分析加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系。2、方法論本文實(shí)證分析的目的是通過協(xié)整技術(shù)去檢驗(yàn)加工貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系。協(xié)整技術(shù)是一種新的適用于動態(tài)模型的制定、評估和驗(yàn)證。它主要分析時(shí)間序列的非平穩(wěn)性，建立非平穩(wěn)變量的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，并探討非平穩(wěn)之間的長期均衡關(guān)系。首先，本文有時(shí)間序列變量的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)；其次，本文測試變量之間的協(xié)整關(guān)系；第三，本文建立誤差修正模型，它不僅檢查變量之間的長期關(guān)系，還檢驗(yàn)短期因果關(guān)系；最后，本文作進(jìn)一步的測試和分析關(guān)于時(shí)間變量涉及到協(xié)整關(guān)系之間的因果關(guān)系。2.1平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)許多經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)沒有穩(wěn)定的過程特征。對于非穩(wěn)定過程中形成的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)，傳統(tǒng)的數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法似乎無能為力。除了使用按順序的自相關(guān)分析圖表，現(xiàn)代計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)判斷時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性，更正式的方法就是統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)。單位根檢驗(yàn)是其中的一個(gè)普遍使用的統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)檢驗(yàn)。這種方法是通過判斷它是否有單位根來判斷某個(gè)時(shí)間序列的穩(wěn)定性。常用的假設(shè)性檢驗(yàn)方法包括DF檢驗(yàn)、ADF檢驗(yàn)和PP檢驗(yàn)。本文通過采用ADF檢驗(yàn)，給出了時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)。ADF檢驗(yàn)是Dickey和Fuller完成的，他們通過改進(jìn)DF檢驗(yàn)，以確保隨機(jī)干擾項(xiàng)的無色干擾特性。ADF的試驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ捅磉_(dá)式如下：(1)(2)(3)T為時(shí)間變量，它代表了某種趨勢的時(shí)間序列變化，隨著時(shí)間的推移。任何零假設(shè)，替代了假設(shè)。本文開頭的表達(dá)式（1），和表達(dá)式（2），最后的表達(dá)式（3）。每當(dāng)檢驗(yàn)拒絕零假設(shè)，即原系列不包括單位根，作為平穩(wěn)序列時(shí)，測試完成。否則，它要繼續(xù)到表達(dá)式（1）被測試。當(dāng)這三個(gè)模型的檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果都不能拒絕零假設(shè)，則認(rèn)為這個(gè)時(shí)間序列是平穩(wěn)的。2.2協(xié)整性檢驗(yàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域，以往的建模技術(shù)具有動態(tài)平穩(wěn)性的假設(shè)，和實(shí)證分析基于時(shí)間序列的假設(shè)時(shí)間序列是平穩(wěn)的。而實(shí)際上，經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)間序列通常是非平穩(wěn)的。恩格爾和格蘭杰（1987年）指出，如果兩非平穩(wěn)時(shí)間序列的線性組合是平穩(wěn)的，這兩個(gè)非平穩(wěn)時(shí)間