輕工制造-2022年報及2023Q1綜述：穿越低谷擁抱復(fù)蘇

證券研究報告|行業(yè)專題研究請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明家居：業(yè)績筑底，經(jīng)營延續(xù)復(fù)蘇。1)定制家居：2022年零售收入增長具韌性，其中歐派、索菲亞同店增長10.4%和29.5%，志邦、金牌延續(xù)渠道擴張；大宗渠道嚴(yán)控工程風(fēng)險，江山歐派收入增長領(lǐng)先。2023Q1經(jīng)營環(huán)境仍存壓力，龍頭前端訂單增長穩(wěn)健，然而費用投放規(guī)模效應(yīng)未充分顯現(xiàn)。2)軟體家居：2022年內(nèi)銷品類融合提速，客單值穩(wěn)步提升，其中顧家延續(xù)渠道結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、頭部品牌渠道下沉加速，此外龍頭加大線上獲客力度，喜臨門電商收入同比+34.6%；外銷收入表現(xiàn)承壓主要系海外零售商處去庫周期。當(dāng)前內(nèi)銷復(fù)蘇、外銷經(jīng)營觸底，預(yù)計伴隨原材料價格回落、內(nèi)部管理變革推進(jìn)，盈利能力進(jìn)一步提升。推薦長期成長標(biāo)的顧家家居、歐派家居，以及二線高擴張標(biāo)的志邦家居、金牌廚柜、喜臨門、慕思股份、索菲亞、箭牌家居、尚品宅配、敏華控股、江山歐派、皮阿諾、王力安防等。：2022年漿價上漲超預(yù)期，且宏觀環(huán)境波動導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)需求疲軟、紙價提漲不暢，造紙板塊利潤承壓，龍頭底層盈利支撐主要源于對上游原材料的掌控程度。當(dāng)前伴隨紙漿供需矛盾放大、漿價回落超預(yù)期，板塊盈利環(huán)比改善，其中雙膠紙盈利修復(fù)最為明確。優(yōu)選底層利潤夯實、Q2起盈利穩(wěn)步修復(fù)的太陽紙業(yè)，關(guān)注山鷹國際、玖龍紙業(yè)、博匯紙業(yè)、晨鳴紙業(yè)等，林業(yè)碳匯開放可期、關(guān)注岳陽林紙。2)特種紙：盈利拐點已至，有望復(fù)刻2020年盈利高點。2022年特種紙龍頭量價齊升，但漿價超預(yù)期上漲壓制板塊盈利空間，其中華旺、冠豪成本控制能力優(yōu)異、盈利逆勢提升。2023Q1行業(yè)小幅提價，但由于需求疲軟、銷量承壓，且高價漿到庫、成本壓力提升，盈利承壓。目前闊葉漿采購價格已跌至近2020年低點，伴隨成本壓力釋放，特紙龍頭盈利改善有望自Q2開啟，考慮到本輪周期供需格局并無顯著變化，噸毛利預(yù)計有望復(fù)刻2020年走勢，噸凈利受益于費用管控優(yōu)異、有望表現(xiàn)更為靚麗。持續(xù)推薦仙鶴股份、華旺科技、五洲特紙、冠豪高新。擁抱復(fù)蘇(維持)行業(yè)走勢32%16%0%-16%2022-052022-082022-122023-04作者分析師姜文鏹相關(guān)研究-04-23居&造紙業(yè)績承壓》2023-04-10消費：經(jīng)營復(fù)蘇，國貨崛起。2022年市場經(jīng)營環(huán)境惡化致傳統(tǒng)消費板塊經(jīng)營承壓，其中公牛集團產(chǎn)品升級推新帶動均價提升、渠道改造&供應(yīng)鏈強化推動線下增長穩(wěn)健，2022年表現(xiàn)靚麗。伴隨行業(yè)需求復(fù)蘇，消費龍頭把握占率穩(wěn)定向上，業(yè)績逐步復(fù)蘇，長期布局價值顯現(xiàn)，Q1必選消費業(yè)績靚麗，鏡片賽道表現(xiàn)突出，明月鏡片/博士眼鏡業(yè)績超預(yù)期。推薦公牛集團、晨光股份、百亞股份、博士眼鏡；此外原材料價格回落有望貢獻(xiàn)利潤彈性，推薦中順潔柔、依依股份、維達(dá)國際、恒安國際；近視防控長期滲透率提升邏輯順暢，明月鏡片離焦鏡具備高性價比且產(chǎn)品線更為豐富，有望貢獻(xiàn)增長亮點。新型煙草：海外龍頭加速布局；國內(nèi)有望底部回升。1)海外：菲莫國際/32.1%/10.5%/2.8%/2.7%，其中菲莫/英美依托產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新&技術(shù)研發(fā)等底層優(yōu)勢，新品表現(xiàn)靚麗，持續(xù)搶占份額。2)國內(nèi)：由于之前非法產(chǎn)品銷售猖P.2請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明獗，國內(nèi)整體Q1市場規(guī)模預(yù)計僅為4-5億元(2021全年為197億元)，受益于中煙對非法產(chǎn)品打擊力度加大，預(yù)計行業(yè)2023Q1筑底。3)思摩爾國際：公司2023Q1收入實現(xiàn)25.27億元(同比+11.9%)，經(jīng)調(diào)整凈利實現(xiàn)3.06億元(同比-44.8%，環(huán)比-26.9%)。收入穩(wěn)健增長主要系海外一次性小煙貢獻(xiàn)主要增量，且美國換彈式恢復(fù)性增長；盈利承壓主要系內(nèi)銷承壓、產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)變化、費用投入增加。未來伴隨全球合規(guī)趨嚴(yán)，市場份額有望穩(wěn)步提升。推薦思摩爾國際，關(guān)注盈趣科技。包裝：下游穩(wěn)健復(fù)蘇，成本維系低位。1)紙包裝：下游需求穩(wěn)步回暖，且伴隨傳統(tǒng)旺季來臨，2023下半年3C需求有望修復(fù)；規(guī)模效應(yīng)提升、原紙成本低位等因素共驅(qū)盈利能力改善。持續(xù)推薦裕同科技、新巨豐、上海艾錄。2)金屬包裝：Q1由于春節(jié)提前、開工率不足，部分公司收入承壓，其中，二片罐由于供需壓力較大，預(yù)計盈利能力延續(xù)承壓；三片罐受益于原材料低位、下游定價模式優(yōu)異，盈利能力有望改善。建議關(guān)注異興股份、寶鋼包裝、奧瑞金。3)塑料包裝：下游分散、需求韌性較強，龍頭收入穩(wěn)健，受益于原材料價格低位、盈利能力提升，推薦永新股份。出口：景氣底部顯現(xiàn)，訂單復(fù)蘇可期。收入承壓主要系全球通脹，下游客戶庫存高企；盈利表現(xiàn)靚麗主要系原材料價格回落且人民幣貶值利好，此外，部分企業(yè)自主品牌出海受益于海運費高位回落。當(dāng)前節(jié)點，海外零售商去庫節(jié)奏已逐步放緩，疊加美聯(lián)儲2023H2降息預(yù)期增強，需求有望逐步回暖，出口訂單或呈現(xiàn)前低后高趨勢。建議關(guān)注盈趣科技、浙江自然、共創(chuàng)草坪、匠心家居、久祺股份、家聯(lián)科技、嘉益股份、夢百合、恒林股份、樂歌股份、永藝股份等。風(fēng)險提示：消費復(fù)蘇不及預(yù)期，地產(chǎn)銷售復(fù)蘇低于預(yù)期，漿價波動低于預(yù)期，政策風(fēng)險。重點標(biāo)的股票代碼股票名稱投資評級EPS(元)2022A2023E2024E2025E2022A2023E2024E2025E002078.SZ太陽紙業(yè)入11.0411.048.78603195.SH公牛集團入5.306.248.7728.4724.1820.31603733.SH仙鶴股份入2.423.1024.3615.4710.17002831.SZ裕同科技入2.202.5615.5311.299.70603180.SH金牌廚柜入2.633.223.8312.8210.478.80603833.SH歐派家居入4.415.175.986.8324.4620.8618.04603008.SH喜臨門入0.612.232.7441.02.1411.229.13603816.SH顧家家居入2.202.533.093.56.5411.9010.33資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所P.3請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明 時 82.2軟體家居：品類融合提速，內(nèi)外銷經(jīng)營復(fù)蘇 162.造紙：2022年盈利觸底，漿價回落&需求回暖共驅(qū)盈利改善 212.1紙漿：本輪漿價有望復(fù)刻2020年走勢 21 20年盈利高點 29 4.新型煙草：海外龍頭加速布局；國內(nèi)有望底部回升 424.1全球滲透率穩(wěn)升，煙草龍頭加速布局 42 4.3思摩爾國際：業(yè)績筑底，一次性超預(yù)期、多元矩陣共驅(qū)成長 465.包裝：下游穩(wěn)健復(fù)蘇，成本維系低位 486.出口：景氣底部顯現(xiàn)，訂單復(fù)蘇可期 51 圖表4：單月房屋新開工面積及同比數(shù)據(jù) 6 圖表8：家具類企業(yè)商品零售額及同比(億元，%) 7 圖表10：定制家居行業(yè)主要公司收入及利潤情況(百萬元) 9圖表11：定制家居公司分品類收入及毛利率(億元) 10道(億元) 11 圖表14：定制家居企業(yè)整裝業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)展(億元) 12 ：定制家居行業(yè)主要公司議價能力情況(百萬元) 15圖表18：定制家居行業(yè)主要公司現(xiàn)金流情況(百萬元) 16 7 圖表22：慕思股份收入分品類拆分(百萬元) 18 圖表24：重點軟體家居企業(yè)盈利能力一覽(%) 19重點軟體家居企業(yè)費用一覽(%) 20P.4請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明 圖表27：重點軟體家居企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流情況一覽(百萬元) 20圖表28：外盤漿價(美元/噸) 21漿價(元/噸) 21 圖表31：重點造紙企業(yè)收入及利潤情況一覽(百萬元，%) 23細(xì)分紙種和原料價格(元/噸) 24重點造紙企業(yè)盈利能力一覽(%) 25圖表34：重點造紙企業(yè)噸毛利走勢(元/噸) 25重點造紙企業(yè)費用情況一覽(%) 26 業(yè)現(xiàn)金流情況一覽(百萬元) 27圖表38：重點造紙企業(yè)在建工程一覽(百萬元) 28圖表39：太陽紙業(yè)產(chǎn)能表一覽(萬噸) 28圖表40：山鷹國際產(chǎn)能表一覽(萬噸) 29圖表41：博匯紙業(yè)產(chǎn)能表一覽(萬噸) 29圖表42：特種紙收入&利潤拆分(單位：百萬元) 30圖表43：特種紙盈利能力拆分(單位：%) 31圖表44：特種紙費用拆分(單位：%) 31圖表45：特種紙現(xiàn)金流及營運能力拆分(單位：百萬元，天) 32圖表46：特種紙盈利與漿價對比(%；元/噸) 32圖表47：特種紙各龍頭銷量、均價及噸盈利變化(單位：元/噸) 33圖表48：特紙龍頭在建工程一覽(單位：億元) 34圖表49：重點消費企業(yè)收入及利潤情況一覽(百萬元，%) 37重點消費企業(yè)盈利能力一覽(%) 39重點消費企業(yè)費用情況一覽(%) 40 業(yè)現(xiàn)金流情況一覽(百萬元) 41圖表54：新型煙草收入占比(億美元) 42圖表55：IQOS使用人數(shù)(萬人)及轉(zhuǎn)化率 42圖表56：英美煙草新型煙草制品使用人數(shù)(百萬人) 43圖表57：新型煙草收入及占比(億英鎊) 43 圖表60：日煙全年收入及新型煙草情況(億日元，%) 44 圖表63：帝國煙草總收入及新型煙草收入占比(億英鎊，%) 45 7 圖表70：包裝收入&利潤拆分(單位：百萬元) 49圖表71：包裝盈利能力拆分(單位：%) 50P.5請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明 T 圖表79：出口板塊費用拆分(單位：%) 54P.6請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明累計房屋竣工面積(億平方米)累計房屋竣工面積同比(%)累計房屋竣工面積(億平方米)累計房屋竣工面積同比(%)售面積分別同比-14.3%/-39.4%/-24.3%，地產(chǎn)疊加宏觀環(huán)境波動影響終端銷售，家居竣工面積及同比數(shù)據(jù)987竣工面積及同比數(shù)據(jù)9876543210單月竣工面積(萬平方米)單月竣工面積(萬平方米)同比%%%0資料來源：資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所23-022022-122022-1022-0822-0622-0422-022021-122021-1021-0821-0621-0421-02資料來源：資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所2022-122022-1022-0822-0622-0422-022021-122021-1021-0821-0621-0421-02圖表3：累計房屋新開工面積及同比數(shù)據(jù)圖表4：單月房屋新開工面積及同比數(shù)據(jù)50累計房屋新開工面積(億平方米)23-022022-122022-1022-0822-0622-0422-022021-122021-1021-0821-0621-0421-02資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所0單月房屋新開工面積(萬平方米)同比單月房屋新開工面積(萬平方米)同比22-1222-1022-0822-0622-0422-0221-1221-1021-0821-0621-0421-02%%%資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所P.7請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明023-032022-10022-052021-12023-032022-10022-052021-12021-07021-02020-09020-042019-11019-06019-01018-08018-03品房銷售面積及同比圖表6：單月商品房銷售面積及同比(萬平方米)累計商品房銷售面積(億平方米)單月商品房銷售面積同比86420 %%23-022022-122022-1022-0822-0622-0422-022021-122021-1021-0821-0621-0421-02資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所03-022-122-102-082-062-042-021-121-101-081-061-041-02%%%資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所以歐派為代表的家居龍頭推動整裝化、全屋化等商業(yè)模式變革極大提高家居企業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈穩(wěn)造業(yè)虧損企業(yè)數(shù)量及占比圖表8：家具類企業(yè)商品零售額及同比(億元，%)00家具制造業(yè):企業(yè)單位數(shù)(個)23-032022-122022-1家具制造業(yè):企業(yè)單位數(shù)(個)23-032022-122022-1022-082021-122019-122017-122015-122013-122011-122009-112007-122005-122003-122001-129-12家具制造業(yè):虧損企業(yè)單位數(shù)(個)虧損企業(yè)占比(%)資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所25000零售額:家具類:累計值零售額:零售額:家具類:累計值零售額:家具類:累計同比800-40資料來源：Wind，國家統(tǒng)計局，國盛證券研究所P.8請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明圖表9：家居龍頭收入增長具備韌性家具零售額住宅竣工面積21CAGR23Q1.1%-7.0%3.3%-7.5%4.6%-8.1%3.0%-3.1%2.8%顧家家居29.1%25.5%40.0%32.6%-3.8%喜臨門41.1%22.3%32.5%63.9%47.3%0.7%4.5%敏華控股26.7%46.9%32.8%39.7%--歐派家居9.2%39.8%23.5%9.2%索菲亞.2%8.9%24.4%7.0%-9.7%志邦家居23.0%31.2%32.1%31.7%3.1%6.2%金牌廚柜25.6%22.4%28.9%25.6%0.9%收入增速戰(zhàn)略深化，綜合實力比拼進(jìn)行時億元(同比+50.0%)，其中歐派/索菲亞/志邦/金牌分別實現(xiàn)收入224.80億元/112.23億元/53.89億元/35.53億元(分別同比增長10.0%/7.8%/4.6%/3.1%)，分別實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤26.88億元/10.64億元/5.37億元/2.77億元(分別同比億元(同比-34.4%)，其中歐派/索菲亞/志邦/金牌分別實現(xiàn)收入35.70億元/18.05億元/8.06億元/5.75億元(分別同比-13.8%/-9.7%/+6.2%/+1.1%)，分別實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤1.52億元/1.04億元/0.52億元/0.33億元(分別同比-39.8%/-8.9%/+0.5%/+8.2%)。P.9請仔細(xì)閱讀本報告末頁聲明圖表10：定制家居行業(yè)主要公司收入及利潤情況(百萬元) Q牌分別Q/金)。2022年全屋定制(衣柜)迭代至整家定制2.0，廚衛(wèi)一體化、門墻柜一體化打造第二增年新收入95.1億元/3.2億元(同比+243%)/10.4億元/1.7億元(同比+14%)，工廠端客%)/1.22萬元/0.82萬元，“櫥預(yù)計客單值穩(wěn)健提升。P.10P.1圖表11：定制家居公司分品類收入及毛利率(億元.90.31.8119A020Q1020Q2020Q3020Q420A021Q1021Q2021Q3021Q421A022Q1022Q2022Q3022Q422A023Q1櫥柜歐派家居收入61.936.4253160.6195.3475.2940.83371.735YOY7.4%-37.2%-2.3%2.7%13.8%-2.1%96.2%25.9%12.7%10.5%24.2%5.1%-0.1%-0.4%-4.7%毛利率36.6%23.9%37.6%39.1%36.2%36.2%31.7%34.4%33.6%36.7%34.4%30.5%31.6%36.8%36.0%34.0%29.3%索菲亞收入8.5149.571628.58039.332YOY20.1%77.4%42.3%121.1%17.3%-4.1%毛利率28.5%23.2%22.5%22.7%24.4%27.5%26.3%21.9%27.6%25.2%志邦家居收入.1726.10.00.27.844.34.656.52.38YOY9.8%----18.0%78.1%19.2%11.2%8.3%17.4%.3%-6.2%-7.4%-6.7%毛利率42.4%43.5%42.4%43.0%40.3%41.8%41.6%41.9%37.0%41.7%40.5%43.0%40.2%40.1%42.2%41.3%46.5%金牌廚柜收入294.456.178.02.73.546.506.42996.82.00.63.62YOY16.0%----16.4%69.4%46.1%4.0%4.0%19.6%7.9%-7.9%6.2%-4.7%-5.2%毛利率36.5%32.0%35.5%32.3%32.0%32.9%27.6%27.3%31.6%32.8%30.3%29.4%28.5%28.1%30.9%29.2%28.3%衣柜歐派家居收入1.674.954217.722344.3572.20.9834.9234.29396YOY24.6%-41.2%18.0%29.5%18.0%11.7%173.5%27.6%35.4%126.2%49.5%40.9%65.3%32.7%-22.7%19.3%毛利率39.9%30.9%42.1%42.6%38.1%40.0%33.4%41.8%39.8%23.5%32.2%28.6%35.9%31.0%31.3%31.8%27.7%索菲亞收入66.05.9545.0767.0234.5948.1082.6939.162.6191.77YOY3.3%16.3%.5%57.6%6.7%23.4%13.2%9.4%11.0%毛利率38.9%40.3%40.5%40.4%38.0%34.1%35.7%34.0%34.6%34.3%志邦家居收入17.3046.076.61.03.53YOY70.8%----55.3%179.4%65.4%33.5%37.1%54.3%19.7%24.5%20.0%15.4%19.5%6.8%毛利率31.6%29.9%27.2%34.5%36.8%33.4%33.3%33.1%38.1%32.6%34.4%34.0%36.3%39.3%41.8%38.5%35.6%金牌廚柜收入.050.464.993.218.0035.029.61YOY121.4%----63.5%149.6%47.9%35.5%65.3%60.3%32.1%31.9%45.2%-6.0%20.1%4.6%毛利率26.8%19.3%27.6%30.6%32.5%29.7%27.2%26.3%29.5%30.4%28.9%28.9%26.6%26.7%33.5%29.2%27.9%木門歐派家居收入970.6415.712.9968.224.004.0667YOY25.9%-20.4%20.9%31.0%54.9%29.0%155.3%71.7%51.7%39.8%60.4%32.3%10.2%5.2%.7%8.9%-4.9%毛利率12.4%6.4%16.0%22.0%7.4%14.0%11.5%13.6%17.7%11.2%13.8%10.1%28.2%21.8%5.1%16.4%7.8%索菲亞收入0.893264.5804.34YOY18.8%9.9%90.5%55.4%93.8%40.4%56.9%6.9%-5.3%毛利率15.9%9.4%16.8%14.6%16.2%17.7%17.1%16.6%29.3%24.0%志邦家居收入0.280.040.030.080.220.470.930.220.520.5080.40YOY254.9%----57.0%115.7%175.9%306.8%355.2%291.5%183.1%133.6%6.2%11.9%34.2%79.5%毛利率-3.6%11.1%3.4%15.9%21.8%16.0%18.3%16.1%8.0%14.4%13.0%8.0%11.9%17.1%6.9%10.4%6.7%金牌廚柜收入0.080.010.050.080.130.300.330.840.170.340.510.470.30YOY2078.7%----222.6%473.8%180.5%273.8%214.6%242.2%107.9%163.5%71.7%41.4%77.3%79.3%毛利率10.6%0.6%12.3%13.4%0.3%0.5%4.4%3.7%6.0%4.4%5.2%5.8%5.9%10.3%7.2%5.6%元/15.0億元/5.5億元/3.2億元(分別同比-15.0%/-9.7%/-3.9%/-4.3%)，二線定制品為7615家/4100家/4231家/3729家(較去年末+140家/-763家/+489家/+599家)，當(dāng)聯(lián)動、定制&軟體融合銷售訂單占比持續(xù)提升，2022年歐派、索菲亞單店收入分別為同比+10.4%/+29.5%)，品類融合效果更為顯著。/16.6億元/12.8億元/21.81億元(分別同比-4.8%/-4.9%/+0.4%/+11.8%/-1.7%)；2023Q1分別實現(xiàn)收入5.9億元/3.0億元/1.3億元/1.9億元/4.8億元(分別同比和回暖。P.11請P.11圖表12：定制家居公司收入-分渠道(億元)2019A2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42020A2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021A2022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022A2023Q1零售渠道歐派家居109.09.0115.824.839.450.548.0162.733.547.353.448.8182.928.5YOY-42.9%1.9%19.3%20.6%6.2%174.9%39.7%28.8%21.7%40.4%34.7%5.8%1.6%12.4%.0%毛利率36.0%19.2%37.4%39.2%33.2%35.2%29.9%34.9%33.2%27.9%31.5%27.8%34.5%33.8%29.3%31.7%27.6%索菲亞67.0922.3621.0624.7068.1113.8821.6225.7425.7987.0216.5923.527.327.695.015.0YOY.8%9.7%23.2%1.5%58.8%22.2%4.4%27.8%19.6%8.8%5.9%7.2%9.2%-9.7%志邦家居21.02.16.08.28.49.29.89.89.033.05.5YOY17.2%140.5%25.9%16.8%28.0%13.2%11.5%7.0%-7.4%4.6%-3.9%毛利率39.4%35.7%36.5%39.2%39.6%38.4%37.3%38.3%36.4%37.5%37.6%37.8%41.3%37.6%38.8%41.0%金牌廚柜4.95.916.03.025.5YOY4.2%99.7%27.3%9.8%29.0%29.4%9.7%-0.6%3.2%1%-5.3%-4.3%毛利率39.6%38.4%40.0%39.0%34.3%35.7%38.4%41.3%38.3%37.5%36.3%35.5%42.4%38.2%36.5%江山歐派2.32.562.668.761.69YOY-26.2%13.0%270.6%211.2%112.7%1%180.5%74.3%42.0%36.9%-2.9%26.4%32.6%大宗渠道歐派家居7.98.510.510.410.610.634.95.9YOY52.5%-25.0%57.4%27.5%38.3%89.7%30.5%21.9%36.9%-7.0%.5%1.4%2.5%-4.8%.0%毛利率34.6%28.7%39.3%36.5%25.8%32.7%30.2%30.4%30.6%31.8%30.8%29.2%27.3%28.0%27.9%20.0%索菲亞9.40715.103.643.653.635.1216.043.3015.33.0YOY60.9%-9.0%74.8%117.5%60.7%135.2%.2%-34.2%6.2%-9.3%-0.2%0.7%-9.2%-4.9%.0%志邦家居2.65.78.016.61.3YOY63.7%83.7%52.7%55.8%53.6%26.2%40.6%.7%-5.9%10.8%0.4%4.5%毛利率42.0%49.3%43.2%39.4%41.5%39.8%38.0%37.4%38.5%40.9%38.0%35.3%40.5%32.6%金牌廚柜5.050.831.582.603.928.931.393.152.973.9311.451.7212.801.88YOY149.3%76.8%68.5%99.2%14.2%0.4%28.2%27.9%-2.8%42.5%-5.5%11.8%5.3%毛利率20.0%19.8%18.2%18.8%18.5%11.8%14.6%14.2%12.2%13.3%14.5%15.3%14.6%9.7%江山歐派8.38.56.35.36.267.4721.814.77YOY78.2%54.8%38.3%1%-37.7%.9%.2%-30.0%-0.3%40.3%49.6%毛利率34.2%30.2%30.4%37.2%33.7%33.6%30.9%33.5%37.4%25.6%32.3%28.2%29.3%29.3%12.7%23.5%20.7%制家居公司零售單店收入對比017018019020021022歐派家居零售收入(百萬元)單店收入(萬元)YOY829859089553670890370628.4%58371125.5%2677475217.633.6%2887615240.2.4%017018019020021022索菲亞零售收入(百萬元)單店收入(萬元)YOY584330352.52668635587.91-2.4%671037369.60-4.4%681250405.15-24.7%870348638.9632.4%95024100231.7529.5%017018019020021022志邦家居零售收入(百萬元)單店收入(萬元)YOY93.48236378.762131282775.40-4.3%2462323276.173152374284.23.6%3296423177.91-7.5%017018019020021022金牌櫥柜零售收入(百萬元)單店收入(萬元)YOY99.3680.78214471.58249364.182070313066.153.1%372952.57-20.5%資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所注：金牌門店數(shù)未包含陽臺衛(wèi)浴和瑪尼歐門店91家(較上年末+56家)。P.12P.12圖表14：定制家居企業(yè)整裝業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)展(億元)整裝收入整裝收入整裝占比整裝收入整裝收入整裝占比整裝收入整裝占比單位：億元整裝業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)展整裝占比接單量同-//制2.0”，升級“全屋六大空間咨詢規(guī)劃+柜門墻配產(chǎn)SKU整裝業(yè)務(wù)特點的產(chǎn)品套系，顧家家居//////年5月顧家與圣都家裝全面合作打造新價值鏈整裝。公司推動全國2000+經(jīng)銷商與裝企合及廣告，且免費提供培訓(xùn)及活動賦能合作伙伴。先后與星藝裝飾、圣都家裝等頭部裝企簽署深度合作協(xié)議，推出渠道專供產(chǎn)品，直營聯(lián)手頭部體化。2022年整裝實現(xiàn)收入11.4億元(同比+115.1%)，2023Q1為2.3億元(同比+78.4%)，截至2022年底，公司直營整裝事業(yè)部已合作裝企數(shù)量160個，門店數(shù)量425家聚焦“廣佛深”，大力做、深入做并取得創(chuàng)新突破，通過“裝兩次，才省心”開展圣誕鳥整裝//////公司重組整裝團隊，重構(gòu)產(chǎn)品體系，針對性開發(fā)符合裝企風(fēng)格的套系化產(chǎn)品，拓展全國與地方金牌廚柜//////通過升級原有家裝、整裝業(yè)務(wù)模式，積極推動零售經(jīng)銷商與各地客戶資源、交付能力、品牌力較強的頭部裝企開展業(yè)務(wù)或作。同時加快家裝、整裝招商建店，深度參與合作網(wǎng)點運營，推動業(yè)務(wù)增長。截至2022年末整裝店為91家(較上年末+56家)。所ct志邦/金牌毛利率31.6%/33.0%/37.7%/29.5%(分別同比-0.01pct/-0.2pct/+1.4pct/-1.0pct)，歸母凈利率分別為12.0%/9.5%/10.0%/7.8%(分別同比-1.1pct/+8.3pct/零售端配套品(毛利率較低)比例提升，大宗渠道行業(yè)競爭加劇，且部分龍頭品牌費用投放規(guī)模效應(yīng)較低(歐派/索菲亞/志邦/金牌期間費用率分別同比+1.1pct/+0.4pct/pct別同比-1.0pct/+1.9pct/+1.8pct/-0.8pct)，歸母凈利率分別為4.3%/5.8%/6.4%/5.7%(分別同比-1.8pct/+0.1pct/-0.4pct/+0.4pct)。歐派短期盈利能力承壓主要系訂單和產(chǎn)能仍未充分釋放；索菲亞利潤率改善主要系持續(xù)推進(jìn)精益管理、精簡花色，板材利用率及生產(chǎn)效率提升，規(guī)模效應(yīng)顯現(xiàn)。P.13P.13制家居行業(yè)主要公司盈利能力定制家居行業(yè)YOY(±)歐派家居YOY(±)索菲亞YOY(±)志邦家居YOY(±)金牌廚柜YOY(±)江山歐派YOY(±)王力安防YOY(±)曲美家居YOY(±)尚品宅配YOY(±)好太太YOY(±)我樂家居YOY(±)皮阿諾YOY(±)好萊客YOY(±)箭牌家居YOY(±)定制家居行業(yè)YOY(±)歐派家居YOY(±)索菲亞YOY(±)志邦家居YOY(±)金牌廚柜YOY(±)江山歐派YOY(±)王力安防YOY(±)曲美家居YOY(±)尚品宅配YOY(±)好太太YOY(±)我樂家居YOY(±)皮阿諾YOY(±)好萊客YOY(±)箭牌家居YOY(±) 20192020202122Q122Q222Q322Q4202223Q1毛利率201922.75%-0.4%26.16%27.37%-0.62%22.91%0.68%19.93%-0.63%23.61%0.76%18.26%1.54%18.82%0.71%14.41%0.22%32.58%4.35%21.61%1.31%21.62%-0.60%26.54%1.72%23.72%9.63%201915.86%4.2%19.24%19.79%-0.06%17.08%2.50%20.03%19.91%6.00%24.62%6.42%5.47%9.85%15.02%-0.63%19.07%16.18%3.88%14.92%1.11%14.30%-2.25%34.74%10.99%2020202122Q123.03%21.00%16.12%0.3%-2.0%-2.7%27.23%24.84%18.53%1.08%-2.39%-1.98%27.39%23.51%19.14%0.02%-3.88%-1.34%23.14%21.58%18.74%0.22%-1.56%-3.24%20.95%18.72%15.25%1.01%-2.23%0.15%26.31%20.75%12.60%2.69%-5.56%-5.62%21.01%13.48%9.36%2.74%-7.53%-11.30%20.32%18.55%19.53%1.50%-1.77%0.19%8.96%9.04%0.85%-5.45%0.08%-9.50%32.77%30.84%27.45%0.19%-1.93%-1.34%24.38%19.03%12.02%2.76%-5.35%-1.30%25.50%24.04%18.01%3.88%-1.45%-3.71%25.80%24.47%24.92%-0.74%-1.33%1.82%23.18%20.53%24.41%-0.55%-2.65%24.41%2020202122Q114.42%8.50%1.17%-1.4%-5.9%-0.5%17.30%18.50%1.74%-1.95%1.20%-0.28%19.47%2.17%2.01%-0.32%-17.30%0.11%17.75%19.51%1.99%0.67%1.76%-0.24%16.03%14.02%1.24%-4.00%-2.01%-1.12%25.83%13.95%2.96%5.92%-11.88%0.98%21.79%7.96%-0.40%-2.83%-13.83%-2.52%4.81%8.82%2.81%-0.67%4.01%0.01%2.89%2.51%-2.84%-12.13%-0.39%-3.07%16.02%15.98%2.38%-3.05%-0.04%-0.25%19.60%-18.53%1.53%3.42%-38.13%0.50%10.25%-63.33%1.62%-4.67%-73.58%-0.19%10.46%2.47%1.54%-3.83%-8.00%0.06%24.77%19.44%0.88%-9.97%-5.33%0.88%22Q222Q322Q4202223Q1毛銷差22.33%22.57%21.78%20.87%15.70%-0.4%-0.5%3.0%-0.1%-0.4%26.10%25.55%24.64%24.14%16.93%-1.38%-1.21%1.54%-0.70%-1.60%22.74%25.64%23.21%23.05%21.98%-4.78%-1.40%4.52%-0.46%2.83%20.22%23.16%24.35%22.25%19.34%-1.23%0.97%3.30%0.67%0.60%15.77%15.47%21.51%17.32%14.57%0.93%-2.94%-1.52%-1.40%-0.69%17.04%17.29%10.74%14.48%14.49%-5.96%-7.76%-4.60%-6.27%1.89%9.23%14.42%18.66%13.28%15.03%-8.56%-0.78%13.18%-0.21%5.67%16.27%16.39%5.89%14.82%8.76%-2.82%-3.04%-10.61%-3.72%-10.76%11.43%14.39%14.46%10.97%0.31%2.41%3.47%8.03%1.93%-0.54%28.13%28.15%26.95%27.70%26.91%-2.10%-3.51%-4.62%-3.14%-0.54%21.13%24.69%24.67%21.42%10.58%0.61%2.65%6.85%2.40%-1.45%17.62%18.52%21.96%19.35%9.33%-7.78%-6.74%-1.20%-4.69%-8.69%26.04%26.19%22.87%25.05%18.75%-0.33%1.39%-0.19%0.57%-6.17%25.78%22.95%20.73%23.32%20.85%6.51%3.51%-1.95%2.80%-3.56%22Q222Q322Q4202223Q1ROE4.39%4.66%2.55%11.60%0.70%-0.1%-0.8%5.5%3.1%-0.5%5.25%6.43%4.33%16.29%0.92%-0.97%-1.94%0.42%-2.21%-0.82%5.29%6.88%4.47%18.41%1.79%-0.05%0.38%16.58%16.23%-0.22%4.23%6.15%8.04%18.65%1.78%-0.25%-0.36%-0.27%-0.87%-0.22%2.58%2.98%4.45%10.68%1.25%0.45%-0.31%-3.33%-3.34%0.01%3.17%-4.63%-20.86%-21.10%4.05%-4.91%-10.65%-19.03%-35.05%1.09%-0.34%1.42%-3.24%-2.60%0.93%-3.13%-2.75%-2.61%-10.56%1.32%3.20%1.64%-5.68%1.68%-4.56%0.20%-0.81%-5.52%-7.13%-7.37%-0.01%2.03%2.14%1.29%-2.70%-1.00%0.78%2.06%-1.21%0.14%3.00%3.50%2.32%10.69%2.33%-1.93%-1.74%-2.16%-5.29%-0.05%2.97%5.62%4.66%13.70%0.65%-0.71%1.20%30.79%32.23%-0.88%3.52%4.33%3.39%12.15%-0.31%0.37%0.81%59.52%75.47%-1.93%3.11%8.92%1.67%14.17%0.39%-0.54%5.47%7.85%11.70%-1.15%6.61%5.56%4.19%12.52%0.07%0.98%-0.99%-4.33%-6.92%-0.82%37.08%-0.9%35.84%-2.54%37.33%-0.25%38.53%2.58%35.84%-3.15%32.22%-0.51%29.21%0.75%43.59%1.18%41.57%-2.11%49.52%6.86%43.83%6.43%35.78%-0.16%40.06%0.50%32.47%7.45%201911.11%3.0%13.59%-0.07%14.02%0.90%11.12%-0.10%11.41%-0.94%12.89%0.99%10.86%2.09%1.92%3.96%7.28%0.10%22.18%2.29%11.56%2.15%11.91%-0.89%16.38%8.35%5.46%34.81%-2.3%35.01%-0.82%36.56%-0.77%38.07%-0.46%32.73%-3.12%32.20%-0.01%31.84%2.63%43.41%-0.18%33.23%-8.33%48.41%42.44%34.08%36.70%-3.37%31.46%202011.03%-0.1%13.99%0.40%14.27%0.26%10.30%-0.82%11.09%-0.32%14.14%1.25%11.34%0.48%2.43%0.51%1.56%-5.72%22.91%0.73%13.86%2.30%13.19%1.28%12.65%-3.73%9.05%0.70%32.14%-2.7%31.62%-3.39%33.21%-3.35%36.24%30.48%-2.24%29.10%-3.11%24.45%-7.39%35.83%-7.58%33.17%-0.07%45.09%-3.32%41.32%33.96%-0.12%33.94%-2.76%30.06%20215.48%-5.6%13.04%-0.95%1.18%9.81%-0.49%9.80%8.14%-6.00%5.20%-6.14%3.51%1.08%1.23%-0.33%21.06%-9.38%-23.24%-39.96%-53.15%1.94%6.89%-2.16%29.64%33.45%32.91%31.87%31.96%29.13%-2.2%-0.5%-0.7%2.3%-0.2%-0.5%27.66%34.01%33.13%30.49%31.61%26.68%-2.54%0.29%-0.15%1.50%-0.01%-0.98%31.32%32.43%34.17%33.35%32.99%33.25%0.09%-4.74%-1.58%4.60%-0.22%1.93%35.08%36.96%37.46%39.42%37.69%36.89%-1.39%-0.31%1.98%3.36%1.44%1.81%29.93%28.30%27.87%31.74%29.46%29.11%1.88%0.74%-3.49%-1.08%-1.02%-0.81%24.91%31.05%23.39%18.14%23.85%21.67%-4.61%0.36%-9.84%-4.83%-5.24%-3.24%22.94%20.79%25.76%27.92%24.46%27.32%-7.54%-6.54%-1.75%11.10%0.01%4.37%35.58%32.79%34.30%25.61%32.29%30.18%-8.08%-6.62%-8.98%7.11%-3.53%-5.40%31.64%34.41%36.71%34.90%34.62%30.98%-3.83%0.11%3.71%4.02%1.45%-0.66%43.35%44.56%46.77%49.75%46.37%45.72%0.20%-1.83%1.57%4.88%1.27%2.37%41.36%44.40%46.08%45.45%44.59%40.23%1.26%2.92%3.80%4.56%3.27%-1.12%29.76%30.05%28.92%31.07%30.02%24.43%-1.84%-4.96%-6.08%-2.51%-3.94%-5.33%35.77%36.53%35.53%32.69%35.15%35.53%3.09%1.58%1.59%-0.97%1.22%-0.24%35.91%34.29%32.53%30.18%32.85%30.44%35.91%5.73%3.97%-2.77%2.78%-5.47%22Q122Q222Q322Q4202223Q1歸母凈利率4.32%11.37%3.96%6.23%8.25%3.18%-2.1%0.3%-8.6%11.6%2.8%-1.1%6.11%13.79%14.79%11.24%11.96%4.27%-1.28%-1.90%-2.97%2.10%-1.08%-1.84%5.73%10.69%12.42%7.93%9.48%5.78%-0.97%-2.23%-1.27%30.89%8.31%0.05%6.76%8.34%10.61%11.85%9.96%6.40%-0.65%0.09%0.12%0.63%0.15%-0.36%5.32%7.23%6.80%10.57%7.80%5.70%-3.74%2.14%-1.19%-4.08%-2.01%0.37%11.28%7.85%-9.08%-33.08%-9.30%8.58%4.31%-7.63%-21.98%-29.17%-17.44%-2.71%-1.93%-0.90%4.06%-8.87%-1.95%3.90%-10.90%-7.81%-4.97%-7.58%-7.15%5.83%4.43%5.51%2.86%-11.19%0.76%-9.94%-0.91%0.60%-1.45%-10.93%-2.75%-14.37%-9.23%-0.04%4.88%4.89%0.87%-11.79%-9.80%-2.00%2.64%4.77%-0.36%-2.55%18.59%15.40%17.81%12.38%15.82%17.48%-2.39%-7.28%-6.74%-4.77%-5.24%-1.11%4.23%6.86%11.59%9.45%8.43%2.51%0.09%-1.97%1.66%63.99%17.82%-1.72%7.91%12.07%12.78%8.96%10.58%-2.16%-2.24%-0.48%-2.40%186.23%50.54%-10.07%6.65%10.79%35.21%7.17%15.27%3.45%-0.29%0.47%24.63%25.06%13.33%-3.20%2.33%9.75%9.38%7.58%7.89%0.28%3.39%2.08%-1.58%1.00%-2.05%資料來源：Wind，國盛證券研究所P.14請P.14定制家居行業(yè)主要公司費用率情況歐派家居YOY(±)索菲亞YOY(±)志邦家居YOY(±)金牌廚柜YOY(±)江山歐派YOY(±)王力安防YOY(±)曲美家居YOY(±)尚品宅配YOY(±)好太太YOY(±)我樂家居YOY(±)皮阿諾YOY(±)好萊客YOY(±)箭牌家居YOY(±)歐派家居YOY(±)索菲亞YOY(±)志邦家居YOY(±)金牌廚柜YOY(±)江山歐派YOY(±)王力安防YOY(±)曲美家居YOY(±)尚品宅配YOY(±)好太太YOY(±)我樂家居YOY(±)皮阿諾YOY(±)好萊客YOY(±)箭牌家居YOY(±)歐派家居YOY(±)索菲亞YOY(±)志邦家居YOY(±)金牌廚柜YOY(±)江山歐派YOY(±)王力安防YOY(±)曲美家居YOY(±)尚品宅配YOY(±)好太太YOY(±)我樂家居YOY(±)皮阿諾YOY(±)好萊客YOY(±)箭牌家居YOY(±)201920.85%20.39%0.14%25.55%2.96%24.55%-2.73%15.99%-4.15%16.59%-0.55%41.07%33.61%-2.92%25.44%4.11%29.64%3.67%20.32%22.22%1.20%19.04%6.94%0.23%7.69%-0.05%5.67%-0.11%3.87%-0.49%3.63%3.93%0.29%8.77%4.62%-0.07%4.43%0.71%4.29%3.47%-0.61%4.55%0.50%6.66%1.11%-0.51%-0.24%0.33%0.01%-0.28%0.43%-0.12%0.06%-0.09%-0.49%-0.17%5.40%0.33%-0.03%-0.08%-0.13%-0.04%0.04%0.04%0.15%-0.79%0.24%0.50%0.62%0.03%2020202122Q122Q2期間費用率17.46%2.32%19.79%-0.58%25.99%-0.46%23.52%0.94%20.99%7.63%17.98%2.52%28.43%-4.04%35.08%2.94%24.44%1.45%35.87%4.60%21.19%5.50%21.79%3.34%19.58%2.11%管理費用率5.99%0.62%6.21%4.75%0.70%4.8