IMF-通過臨時貿易壁壘進行報復（英）

Retaliationthrough

TemporaryTradeBarriers

DavideFurceri,JonathanD.Ostry,ChrisPapageorgiou,Pauline

Wibaux

WP/23/99

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2023

MAY

N

Ar

R

*WethankChadBown,FredCampano,MeredithCrowley,LionelFontagn′e,J′er?omeH′ericourt,RobertKoopman,Philippe

Martin,DominickSalvatoreaswellasparticipantsofthe2021ASSAsessionon“InternationalTrade:CrucialforWorldEconomicRecoveryandGrowth”,andattheCEPII’sinternalseminar.

?2023InternationalMonetaryFund

WP/23/99

IMFWorkingPaper

ResearchDepartment

RetaliationthroughTemporaryTradeBarriers

PreparedbyDavideFurceri,JonathanD.Ostry,ChrisPapageorgiou,PaulineWibaux*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyChrisPapageorgiou

May2023

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:AreTemporaryTradeBarriers(TTBs)introducedforstrategicreasons?Toanswerthisquestion,weconstructanovelsectoralmeasureofretaliationusingdailybilateraldataonTTBresponsesin1220subsectorsacrossapanelof25advancedandemergingmarketeconomiesover1989-2019.Stylizedfactsandeconometricanalysissuggestthatwithin-yearresponsesaremoreimportantintermsofintensityandfrequencythancommonlyunderstoodfromtheexistingliterature,whichhastendedtoignorethem.Wefindthatretaliationoftenconsistsofresponsesacrossmanysectorsandthatsame-sectorretaliationisfarfrombeingthenorm.Inaddition,wefindthatlargercountriestendtoretaliatemore,andthatretaliationislargerduringperiodsofhigherunemploymentandwhenthetradingpartnertargetedadomesticcomparativeadvantagesector.

RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Furceri,Davide,J.Ostry,C.Papageorgiou,andP.Wibaux,2023,“RetaliationthroughTemporaryTradeBarriers,”IMFWorkingPaper23/99.

JELClassificationNumbers:F13;F14;F15

Keywords:

Traderetaliation;Protectionism;Antidumping;TemporaryTradeBarriers.

Author’sE-MailAddress:

IMFWORKINGPAPERS

RetaliationthroughTemporaryTradeBarriers

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

3

WORKINGPAPERS

RetaliationthroughTemporaryTradeBarriers

PreparedbyDavideFurceri

1

,JonathanD.Ostry

2

,ChrisPapageorgiou

3

,PaulineWibaux

4

1InternationalMonetaryFund,RCEA

2GeorgetownUniversityandCEPR

3InternationalMonetaryFund

4CEPII

IMFWORKINGPAPERS

RetaliationthroughTemporaryTradeBarriers

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

4

TABLEOFCONTENT

1.Introduction

3

2.Literaturereview

6

3.Data

8

3.1.TemporarytradebarrierswithintheWTOframework

8

3.2.Temporarytradebarriersdata

9

3.3.Constructinganewmeasureoftraderetaliation

10

3.4.Factsandpatternsoftraderetaliation

1

4

4.Empiricalframework

16

5.Results

19

5.1.Baselineresults

19

5.2.Robustnesschecks

23

5.3.Nonlinearities

23

6.Conclusion

26

References

31

AAdditionalfigures

3

3

BAdditionaltables

4

0

FIGURES

1.Distributionofresponses

10

2.TimelineforChina-USin2016-2017

11

3.Distributionofshareofretaliatorymeasuresacrosscountries

15

4.Shareofretaliatorymeasuresacrosstime

15

5.SameHS4sectorretaliation

16

TABLES

1.Country-specificmedianofnumberofdaysbetweentwoopposingmeasures

12

2.Probabilitiesofadomesticmeasure

13

3.DescriptiveStatistics

19

4.Baselinespecification

20

5.Specificationincludingonlysector-timeandcountry-pairfixedeffects

22

6.Robustnesstests

24

7.Alternativesamples

27

8.Allforeignmeasures

28

9.Tradepolicycooperation

29

10.Non-linearities

30

3

1Introduction

TheGATT/WTOmultilateralprocesseshavesucceededinreducingworldaveragetar-i?sbelow3%,whileleavingcountriesspacetoadapttradebarrierstoexternalshocks.However,ascountriessoughttouseWTO-compliantinstrumentstoprotect?rmsfromforeigncompetitionthroughTemporaryTradeBarriers(TTBs)—seeFigures

A1

and

A2

fortheuseofTTBsacrosscountries—tensions,involvingretaliationthreats,begantoemergeatthebeginningofthe2000s.Retaliationislikelytoamplifythetradecostof

the?rstprotectionistmove.

Temporarytradebarriersarelegitimatewhenappliedinexceptionalcircumstancestocompensatespeci?cindustriesandcompaniesforunfairpracticesfromtradingpart-ners.TheWTOallowsgovernmentsto:(i)actagainstdumpingwherethereisgenuine(“material”)injurytothecompetingdomesticindustry;(ii)launchitsowninvestigationandultimatelychargeextraduty(knownas“countervailingduty”)onsubsidizedimportsthatarefoundtobehurtingdomesticproducers;and(iii)restrictimportsofaprod-ucttemporarily(take“safeguard”actions)ifitsdomesticindustryisseriouslyinjuredor

threatenedwithinjurycausedbyasurgeinimports.

Empiricalevidence,however,castsdoubtthatTTBsareusedexclusivelyforthesepurposes:

BownandCrowley

(2013a)showthatthesetradebarriersrespondtomacroe

-conomicconditionsinexportingandimportingcountries,underscoringthattheyareusedatleastinpartformacroeconomicreasons,whichmayormaynotbecorrelatedwiththedamagetoparticularsectorsfromunfairpractices.CountriesalsouseTTBsasasafetyvalve.Becauseoftheirtemporarynature,TTBscanbeusedtocompensateforano?cialtari?decrease,whichwouldtranslateintoagradualdecreaseintradebarriers,asshownby

BownandTovar

(2011).Inthissense,

Kuenzel

(2020)providesevidencethatthereis

asubstitutionbetweenWTOrequirementsandTTBs:whentheboundtari?decreases,moreTTBsareused.PerhapsofmoreconcernisifTTBsareusedtoretaliateagainstforeigngovernmentpolicyratherthantomitigateaspeci?csectoralinjury,asthiswouldrunagainstthegrainofmultilateraltradecooperationpromotedbytheWTO.Inthiscontext,

Bown

(2022)describeshowTTBshavebeendisproportionatelytargetingChina

. However,theresponseofacountrytoanewforeigntradebarriercannotalwaysbelabeledasnon-cooperative.Whenacountryfaceswhatisperceivedasunfairtrade

barriers,severaloptionsexist.First,itcandonothing,perhapsoutofconcernthatthe

4

imposingcountrycouldretaliatefurther.Second,itcan?leano?cialdisputewiththeWTOdisputesettlementbody,andengageinnegotiationswiththeimposingcountry.Inthecasewherenoagreementisreachedbetweenthepartiesandinjuryisproven,thetargetedcountrywouldhavetherighttoretaliate.Finally,forcountriesunwillingtoengageinWTOlitigation,athirdwayistodecidetoretaliatedirectlybylaunchinganewTTBinvestigation,anoptionwhich

Bown

(2005)calls”vigilantejustice”

.Whilerules-consistentretaliationcanbelabeledasacooperativeuseofTTBs(see

BownandCrowley,

2013b

),becauseitstandswithinWTOrules,rules-inconsistentretaliationisequivalenttoanon-cooperativeuseofTTBs.Thefocusofthispaperisthenon-cooperativeuseof

TTBs,asweseektoprovideevidenceofrules-inconsistentretaliation.

TheempiricalevidencearoundtheuseofTTBsforstrategicmotivesislargelyin-conclusive,?rstbecauseoneneedstodisentangletherationalefortheuseofTTBsinthe?rstplace(whichischallengingforreasonsdiscussedabove),andsecondbecauseoffundamentalidenti?cationproblems.A?rstissuerelatestothede?nitionofretaliation.Toestimatetheprobabilityofacountryjtoretaliateinyeart,foreignmeasuresimposedoncountryjareincludedasexplanatoryvariables—typicallytheliteratureconsidersadummyvariablethattakesthevalueofoneifcountryi?ledaTTBagainstjpriortoyeart(e.g.,

PrusaandSkeath,

2005

;

Bo?aandOlarreaga,

2012

;

FeinbergandReynolds

,

2006

).Akeyproblemwiththisapproachisthatretaliatorymeasuresthattakeplacewithinayear—asweshowlaterthelargemajority—willnotbecapturedandnorwillbe

theintensityofretaliation(howmanyTTBsareintroducedinresponse).

Anothersetofissuesconcernstheuseofcountry-leveldata.TTBsareinitiatedattheproduct(industry)level,soanunderstandingofthefactorsa?ectingsuchdecisionsshouldrelyonindustry-leveldata.Moreover,country-levelanalysisisvulnerabletothecriticismthatimpactsattributedtoretaliationmayre?ectotherunobservedmacroeconomicshocks,

suchaschangesineconomicconditionsasfoundin

BownandCrowley

(2013a)

.

Inthispaperwetrytoaddresstheseissues.Ourde?nitionofretaliationencompassesthoseactions(TTBs)takenbycountryjthatarenottoodistantfromTTBstakenbyatradingpartneri,wherenottoodistantisformalizedbynotmorethanxdays,wherexisthemedianresponsetime(indays)betweenj’sactionsandthoseofallitstradingpartners.Inparticular,weestimatetheintensityofretaliationbycountryjasthenumber

ofcountryj’sTTBmeasuresfollowingaTTBmeasureimposedbycountryiwithinan

5

intervalofxdays.Inthis?rststep,weusedailydataonTTBsfromtheWorldBank’sTTBDatabase(

Bown,

2015

)atthe6-digitHarmonizedSystem(HS6)productlevel.ThehighfrequencyofthedataiskeytocapturetheTTBactionsbycountriesjandi,andthusreducingtheconcernthatTTBactionsimplementedbycountryiareendogenous.Regardingtheeconometricanalysis,oursamplecovers1220subsectors(HS4digits)across25advancedandemergingeconomiesover1989-2019.Useofsectoraldataallowsustodisentanglesame-sectorversuscross-sectorretaliatorymeasures.ThisisimportantasstrategicbehaviorsarelikelytoberelevantwhencountriesrespondbyimposingTTBsacrossmanysectors.Inaddition,thefour-dimensionalpanel(domesticcountryj,partnercountryi,timetandksectors)ofourdataallowsustocontrolforcountry-andsector-shocksthroughcountry–timeandsector–time?xede?ects,whichobviouslywouldnotbe

feasibleusinganaggregatecountry-levelpanel

.1

Weshowthatwhileretaliationiscommon,thereiswidedispersionacrosscountriesintherecoursetosuchpolicy,withsmallercountriesandemergingmarketeconomiesretaliatinglessthanlargerorrichercountries.WealsoshowthatrecoursetoretaliatoryTTBshasincreasedovertime,peakingintheearly2000sandaftertheGlobalFinancialCrisis(GFC).Retaliationseemsmorefocusedonprotectingnon-injuredsectorsthantheinjuredsectorandseekstoprotectmanysectorssimultaneously.Thissuggeststhatretaliationmaybedrivenmorebyperceptionsofunfairforeignpoliciesthanspeci?c

sectoralinjuries.

Ourestimatessuggestthataonestandard-deviationincreaseinthenumberofnewTTBinagivenHS4sectorbycountryioncountryjincreasesthenumberofnewlytargetedproductsbyjoniby1%bothinthesamesectorandinothersectors.Thisresultisrobusttocontrollingforothertradepolicyinstruments,suchastari?variationsandtradedisputes.Inaddition,suchretaliatoryactionsarelargerwhentari?scannotbeused,hepresenceofatradeagreement,whenbothcountriesareinatradedispute,orwhenthedomesticeconomyisforeseeingfurtherretaliation.Theyarealso

largerinperiodsofhigherunemployment.

Theremainderofthepaperisorganizedasfollows.SectionIIpresentsabrieflitera-turereviewonimportprotectionwithfocusonTTBsandtraderetaliation.SectionIII

discussesthedatausedintheanalysis,presentsourproposedde?nitionofretaliation,and

1Asarobustnesscheck,wealsoshowthattheresultsarerobustwhencontrollingforcountry-pair-time?xede?ects.

6

highlightstraderetaliationfactsandpatterns.SectionIVdiscussestheempiricalstrategy.

SectionVpresentsthebaselineresultsandrobustnesschecks.SectionVIconcludes.

2Literaturereview

Thereisanextensiveliteraturehighlightingthetheoreticaldeterminantsofimportprotec-tionfromapolitical-economyperspective(e.g.,

GrossmanandHelpman,

1994

,

Grossman

andHelpman

,

1995

;

Nicitaetal.

,

2018),formacroeconomicreasons(e.g.,

Bagwelland

Staiger

,

2003)orstrategicones(e.g.

BagwellandStaiger,

1990

;

HarrisonandRutstrom,

1991

;

BlonigenandBown,

2003

;

MartinandVergote,

2008)

.

GrossmanandHelpman

(1994)developamodelinwhichspecial-interestgroupsmake

politicalcontributionstoin?uenceagovernment’schoiceoftradepolicy.Themodelshowsthat“protectionisforsale”aspoliticiansmaximizetheirownwelfare,whichdependsontotalcontributionscollectedinadditiontothewelfareofvoters.Insubsequentwork,

GrossmanandHelpman

(1995)showthatpoliticalpressuresongovernmentscaninduce

countriestoincreasetheirlevelofimportprotection,whichwouldinturnleadtoretal-iation.Morerecently,

Nicitaetal.

(2018)buildapolitical-economymodelhighlighting

that,intheabsenceofcooperation,thereisapositiverelationshipbetweenimporters’marketpowerandtheirimporttari?s.

BagwellandStaiger

(2003)proposeatheoretical

frameworkthatisconsistentwithempiricalstudiesdocumentingthecountercyclicalna-tureoftradebarriers(seee.g.

BoharaandKaempfer,

1991):rapidtradegrowthduring

boomsunderpinsrelativelyliberaltrade.

BagwellandStaiger

(1990)developatheoryof

“managedtrade”thatcorrelatesperiodsofunusuallyhightradevolumeswithincreasedprotection:tradeprotectionemergesastheendogenousoutcomeofcountries’attempttodampen?uctuationsintradevolumesthroughrecoursetoprotection.

Harrisonand

Rutstrom

(1991)presentedanalternativeapproachtothequantitativeanalysisoftrade

policyevaluationbasedonnotionsofnon-cooperativetradewarsandcooperativetradenegotiations.ItwasshownthatitisindeedpossibletorationalizeafreetradeagreementbetweentheUnitedStatesandCanadaifthealternativetosuchanegotiatedoutcomeisaretaliatorytradewar.

BlonigenandBown

(2003)developatriggerpricemodelwhich

allowsforthethreatofanantidumping(AD)actiontorestrainADactivity.

Whilethetheoreticalliteratureonimportprotectionisextensive,empiricalevidence

7

onthestrategicuseoftradebarriersremainsscarce.

BlonigenandBown

(2003)useAD

datafortheUStotesttheimpactofretaliationthreats.Usingdatafor645decisionsbytheUSADauthority,they?ndthatanindustryismorelikelyto?leanADpetitionthegreatertheimportpenetrationandthelowertheexposuretoretaliation.

Prusaand

Skeath

(2002)?ndevidencetosupportbotheconomicandstrategicmotivesforAD?lings

.

Usingindustry-leveldata,

FeinbergandReynolds

(2006)?ndthatthelikelihoodof

acountry?lingacaseishigheragainstcountriesthattargeteditinthepreviousyear.

MooreandZanardi

(2011)showthatretaliationvariableshelpexplaintheprobability

ofobservinganADpetitionexceptfordevelopingcountriesthathavebecomeheavyusersofAD.

Bo?aandOlarreaga

(2012)?ndnoevidenceofretaliatorymotivesdriving

protectionismduringtheGFCandshowthataprotectionistmeasureimposedbyatradingpartnerreducestheprobabilityofameasureimposedbythehomecountry.

Tabakisand

Zanardi

(2017)developadynamicgamewheretwocompetingimporterscanimpose

ADmeasuresonathirdcountry,anddocumentthatADechoing—di?erentcountriessequentiallyimposingADmeasuresonthesameproductandexporter—iscommonamong

usersofAD.

Anotherstrandoftheliteratureaimsatanalyzingthecostoftradecon?icts.

Crozet

andHinz

(2020)evaluatethecostsofinternationalsanctionsforthediplomaticcon?ict

betweentheRussianFederationandtheEuropeanunion.Resultsindicatethatbothcountriessu?eredfrombothforeignanddomestictradesanctions.Inparticular,Westerncountriessu?eredfromanunintended,largelyself-in?ictedcost.Using?rm-leveldata,

Crozetetal.

(2021)studyexporting?rms’behaviortotradesanctions,showingstrong

heterogeneityalongthe?rmdimensions,withunpredictableresultsonwhich?rmskeep

exportingtothesanctionedcountry.

Finally,thereisaliteraturethatfocusesoncasestudies.Forexample,athoroughlystudiedcasewastheoutbreakofatradewaraftertheUnitedStatesadoptedtheSmoot-Hawleytari?inJune1930.

Irwin

(1998)?rstexaminedcloselytwoyearsaftertheimposi

-tionoftheSmoot-Hawleytari?,andfoundthatthevolumeofU.S.importsfellover40%.Usingpartialandgeneralequilibriumassessments,itwasalsoshownthattheSmoot-Hawleytari?itselfreducedimportsby4-8percent.Recently,

Mitcheneretal.

(2022)

usenewquarterlydataonbilateraltradeforninety-ninecountriesandshowthatU.S.

exportstoretaliatorsfellby28%–32%andtheretaliators’welfaregainsfromtradefell

8

by8%–16%.

3Data

3.1TemporarytradebarrierswithintheWTOframework

TheWTOdelegatestheauthorityofimplementingtemporarytradebarrierstonationalgovernments.Forexample,theUnitedStatesInternationalTradeCommission(USITC)andtheEuropeanCommissionhaveauthorityinthismatterfortheUSAandtheEuro-peanUnionrespectively.Theprocesstakesplaceintwosteps.First,a?rm,oragroupof?rmsformingalobby,?lesacomplaintwiththenationaltradeauthority,whichlaunchesaninvestigation.LetusconsiderthecasewhereaEuropean?rmsuspectsaU.S.?rmtodumpitsexportsatbelow-marketprices.OnerecoursefortheEuropean?rmisto?leadumpingcomplaint,demandingananti-dumpingtari?tobeimposedontheproductcomingfortheU.S.Atthisdate,aninvestigationislaunched,todeterminewhethertheEuropean?rmisfacinganinjury.Duringtheinvestigation,atemporaryadditionaltari?

maybeapplied,makingtheinvestigationcostlyfortheforeigneconomy.23

Second,bytheendoftheinvestigation,thetradeauthoritymakesadecision:iftheinjuryisproven,

atemporarytradebarrier(inourcaseananti-dumpingduty)isimplemented.

TheprocessofTTBimplementationreliesontwoactors:the?rmdecidingto?leacomplaintandthenationaltradeauthoritydecidingwhethertoimplementanewTTB.ThepublicrecordsprovideuswiththedatesofeachstepofaTTBinvestigation.Theempiricalliteratureprovidesevidencethataninvestigationinitselfcanbedamagingfortheforeigneconomy,andcanthusprovokearesponse(

Staigeretal.,

1994)

.However,toinvestigatethetimingofretaliatoryTTBs,wefocusonthetradeauthority’sdecision,andconsideronlythedeterminationdate.Whileanindividual?rmwouldnotnecessarilybeconcernedbyaforeignmeasureimposedinanotherdomesticsector,itismorethanpossiblethatthedomestictradeauthoritywouldconsiderstrategicreasonstoimplementTTBsasameasureofretaliation.Inotherwords,thetradeauthoritymaybemore

inclinedtoimplementanewTTB(basedonapetition?ledbya?rm)targetingaforeign

2Investigationsarepublic,andrecordscanbefoundonline.InthecaseofEU,theCommissionopensananti-dumpinginvestigationbypublishinganoticeintheEU’sO?cialJournal.Seethefollowingwebsite:

https://tron.trade.ec.europa.eu/investigations/ongoing.

3Thedurationofinvestigationsvariesfromtimetotime:inourdatasetwe?ndthattheaveragetimebetweenthestartoftheinvestigationandthedeterminationdateisof12months(seeFigure

A3)

.

9

economywhichhasjustimplementedanewTTBagainstthedomesticeconomy.

TheWTOlitigationframeworkgivestheforeigneconomy,heretheU.S.,threewaystorespond.First,itcan?leacomplaintthroughtheDisputeSettlementBody:ifthemeasureisproventobeunfair,theU.S.maybeauthorizedtoimplementatradebarriertocompensatethetradeloss.Second,itcandonothing,forfearoffurtherretaliation.Finally,itcanimplementanewTTBagainsttheEUtoretaliateillegally,bypassingWTOrules.Thistypeofrules-inconsistentretaliation,dubbedasnon-cooperative,isthefocus

ofthispaper.

3.2Temporarytradebarriersdata

Weuseapaneldatasetofbilateralmeasuresofimportprotectionfor25advancedandemergingmarketeconomiesfortheperiod1989-2019(seeTable

B1

inAppendixforthelistofcountriesincludedintheanalysis)

.4

Thedailydataontemporarytradebarriers(TTBs)isdrawnfromtheWorldBank’sTTBDatabase(basedon

Bown

,

2015

).Thisdatabaseprovidesbilateraltradepolicyactionsatthe6-digitHarmonizedSystem(HS6)productlevelfortheperiod1989-2019,classi?edinthreecategories:anti-dumping(AD),countervailing(CVD)andglobalsafeguards(GS).Asdiscussedby

BownandCrowley

(2013a),inclusionofallformsoftemporaryimportrestrictionsisimportantbecause

recentmeasures,suchasthe2009China-speci?csafeguardimposedbytheUSontireimports,havefocusedmoreonCSandGSTTBsratherthanADones,andthusitis

criticalnottorestricttheanalysistoantidumping.

Theadvantageofthisdatasetisthreefold.First,thedailyfrequencyallowsustocon-structwithin-yearmeasuresofretaliation.Second,havingafour-dimensional(ksectors,jdomesticcountry,ipartnercountry,andttimeperiods)datasetallowsustocontrolforaggregate(country-time)andcountry-sectorshocksbyincludingcountry–timeandsec-tor–time?xede?ects.Theinclusionofthecountry–time?xede?ectsiscriticaltoabsorbanyunobservedcross-countryheterogeneityinthemacroeconomicshocksa?ectingdeci-sionstointroduceaTTB,aswellastradede?ectionatthecountry-levelandtheindirectimpactsofTTBsthroughothertradingpartners.Inacountry-levelanalysis,thiswouldnotbepossibleastheimpactthatwouldhavebeenattributedtoretaliationcouldhave

beenduetootherunobservedmacroeconomicshocks.Third,thesectoraldisaggregation

4Dataandpartofthestylizedfactswere?rstpresentedin

Furcerietal.

(2021

).

10

Figure1:Distributi