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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10436

TheEffectsofEnergyPrices

onFirmCompetitiveness

EvidencefromChile

JuergenAmann

ArtiGrover

Finance,CompetitivenessandInnovationGlobalPractice

May2023

ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10436

Abstract

consistentwiththestrongversionofthePorterhypothe-sis.Third,theseeffectsareheterogeneousandvarybyfirmattributessuchassize,ownershipandlocation.Fourth,investigatingnon-linearpatternsinfirmoutcomesbasedonthelevelofenergyprices,thefindingsshowthatthepositivecorrelationbetweenfossilfuelpriceincreasesandcapitalupgradingisparticularlypronouncedwhenenergypricesareatrelativelylowlevels.

Thispaperanalyzestheimpactofchangesinenergyprices

onthecompetitivenessofmanufacturingfirmsinChile.

UsingtheChileanAnnualNationalIndustrialSurveydata,

thepaperillustratesthat,first,increasesinenergyprices

generallydonothurtfirmcompetitiveness.Second,the

impactofenergypricesdependsonthefueltype—while

electricitypriceincreasesarenegativelycorrelatedwithfirm

outcomes,fossilfuelpriceincreaseshaveapositiveassocia-

tionwithinvestmentandfirmproductivity,aresultthatis

ThispaperisaproductoftheFinance,CompetitivenessandInnovationGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebat/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatagrover1@.

ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

TheEffectsofEnergyPricesonFirm

Competitiveness:

EvidencefromChile*

JuergenAmann(UniversityofNottingham)t

ArtiGrover(InternationalFinanceCorporation,WorldBankGroup)?

JELClassification:D21;D24;L60;O14;Q41;Q55.

Keywords:Energyprices;Fossilfuels;Firmproductivity;Firm-leveltechnologyadoption,Competitiveness.

*ThisresearchwascompletedundertheguidanceofMarianneFay,CountryDirectorforChile.TheauthorsaregratefultoDoerteDoemelandandYiraJ.Mascarofortheirstrategicguidance,andtoEsperanzaLasagabaster,VincentPalmade,RichardRecord,ErikvonUexkullandseveralcolleaguesfromtheMinistryofFinanceinChilefortheirusefulcomments.

temail:

amannj.work@

?Correspondingauthor,email:

agrover1@

2

1Introduction

Greengrowthrequiresgreentechnologies,thatis,productiontechniquesthatecon-omizeonexhaustibleresourcesandemitfewergreenhousegases.Yet,investmentinsuchtechnologicalchangesisinhibitedbecausecarbon,usuallyusedasshorthandforgreenhousegases(GHGs),ishighlymispriced.

1

Forinstance,fossilfuelssub-sidiesandthefailuretoimplementtaxesorcontrolsforinternalizingtherisksofclimatechangeresultinasubstantiallylowerusercostofcarbonthanisappropriatefromalong-termsocietalperspective.Pricingcarbontoreflectitstruecostremainschallengingduetopoliticalreasons.

2

Inaddition,assessingtheeffectsofenergypricevariationonfirm-leveloutcomesisdifficultduetoextensivedatarequirementsandidentificationissues.Consequently,empiricalworkanalyzingtheimpactofen-ergypricesonfirmcompetitivenessisstillrelativelyscarcerindevelopingcountriescomparedtodevelopedeconomies(

Burkeetal.

,

2016

).

Thispapercontributestounderstandingtheeffectsofenergypriceincreasesonmanufacturingfirm-leveloutcomesinChile,anemergingeconomy,whichhasundergonefast-pacedeconomicdevelopmentinrecentyears.

3

Chileisaninterestingcaseasthecountryhasexperiencedasubstantialvariationinprimaryenergyinputs,includinghydro,coalandgas,asaprimarysourceofenergyproductioninthepast;see

FigureA.1

.

4

Thecountryhasalsocommittedtocarbonneutralityby2050,butitsindustrycontinuestodependheavilyonfossilfuelsdespitesomeprogress.Inthecontextofitsbroadertaxreformagenda,theBoricadministrationthattookofficeinMarch2022isconsideringcorrectivetaxesandsubsidyreformstoincentivizetheuseoffossilfuel-savingtechnologies.Atthesametime,thegovernmenthasannounced

1Notethatinthisstudy,wecombinevarioustypesoffossilfuelswhichmayvarynotablyintheamountofGHGemissions.

2Industrialpolicieshavehistoricallysupportedtheprovisionofsubsidizedenergy,amajorin-putinmanufacturing,especiallyinmarketswherecost-competitivenessisparticularlyimportant(

El-KatiriandFattouh

,

2017

).Consequently,policymakersmayfeartheadversereactionsofin-terventionstargetingareductionofgreenhousegasemissionsthroughchangesintheprice-settingmechanism.Climatechangemitigationinemergingandemergingeconomiesmightposeachallengefromadevelopmentperspectiveifitrequiresmorecostly,low-carbonenergysources(

Jakoband

Steckel

,

2014

).

3Followingthe

historicWorldBankCountryandLendingGroupsclassification

(lastaccess:December2022),Chilewasanuppermiddle-incomecountryatthebeginningofoursampleperiodin1995andbecameahigh-incomecountryin2012.

4Between1995-2013,morethan95%ofChileanmanufacturingfirmsusedelectricity,followedbydiesel,with35%-54%usingthisfueltype.TheconsumptionofotherfuelssuchasLPGandpetrolislower;onaverage20%-30%firmsusethesefuels.Arelativelysmallershareoffirmsusesnaturalgas,coke,keroseneandpipegas.

3

variousmeasurestopromoteinvestment,innovationandproductivitygrowth.Well-designedpolicyinterventionthatcombinescarbonpricinginstrumentswithtargetedadjustmentsupporttoovercomeinitialobstaclestoadoptingnewtechnologiescanyieldawin-winoutcomeofhigherproductivityandloweremissions.However,thecurrentevidencebaseforpolicydesignislimited.Thispapercontributespreciselytothisgapbyassessingtheeffectsofenergypricechangesonfirmoutcomes.

Tothisend,thepaperusesthepubliclyavailableversionoftheChileanAnnualNationalIndustrialSurveytostudytheeffectsofenergypricesonfirmoutcomes.Thedatacontains100,803observationson12,169plants,withanaverageof4,200uniquefirmsobservedacrosssurveyyearsfrom1995to2015.Weestimateseparateelasticitiesofelectricityandfossilfuelforvariousfirm-leveloutcomessuchaspro-ductivity,energyefficiency,employment,wages,andprofitsemployingfixed-effects(FE)panelestimations.

5

Wealsoestimatetheheterogeneityinresponsesbyfirmattributesandnon-linearitiesconditionalonenergypricelevels.Weaddtothero-bustnessofourresultsthroughanInstrumentalVariableapproachwhereweutilizetheregionalenergydistributioncosttoaccountforunobservedreversecausality.

Thispapermakesthefollowingbroadcontributions:First,itfindsthatoverallincreasesinenergypricesgenerallydonothurtfirmcompetitiveness.Second,itcon-firmsnotableheterogeneityinhowenergypricesurgesaffectfirmperformanceoftheChileanmanufacturingsectorinlinewithotherrecentworks.Thesedependonthetypeofenergyinput,i.e.electricityvsfossilfuels,(

Amannetal.

,

2021

;

Cal`?etal.

,

2022

,amongothers)andhintatvariousdegreesofsubstitutabilitybetweendistinctproductioninputsconditionalonfirmcharacteristics(

BrucalandDechezlepr?etre

,

2021

,amongothers).Forinstance,whileelectricitypriceincreasesnegativelycorre-latewithproductionandemployment,fossilfuelpriceincreasesarenotnecessarilydetrimentaltofirmperformance.Forexample,a10%riseinfossilfuelpricescor-relatessignificantlywithacapitalinvestmentincreaseof3.1%andanincreaseinoutputperworkerof0.8%.Inotherwords,ourresultssupportthestrongversionofthePorterHypothesis(

Porter

,

1991

;

PorterandVanderLinde

,

1995

)forfossilfuelincreasesbutnotforelectricitypriceincreases.Third,itpointsoutextensivehetero-geneitiesofenergypricehikesalongmanydimensions.Wefindheterogeneouseffectsbyfirmattributessuchassize,ownershipandlocation.Theheterogeneityanaly-sissuggeststhatthestrongversionofthePorterHypothesiscanonlybeobservedforlargefirms(with50employeesorabove).Bycomparison,smallfirmsobserveanegativecorrelationwithsurgesinenergypricesingeneralandelectricitypricesinparticular.OurresultsalsoindicatethatthePorter-typeadoptionmechanismis

5Weconstructaharmonizedunitpriceindexforfossilfuelsbycombininginformationoncoal,gas,diesel,petrol,LPGandkeroseneuseofChileanmanufacturingfirms.

4

morepronouncedforexportingfirmsandfirmsunderforeignownership,whilefirmsthatonlyoperatedomesticallyandareunderdomesticownershiparemoreadverselyaffectedbyhikesinelectricityprices.Fourth,itpresentsexplanatoryevidencethatissuggestiveofanotablechangeintherelationshipbetweencompetitivenessindi-catorsandfossilfuelpricechangesconditionalonthepricelevel.Wefindthatthepositivecorrelationbetweenfossilfuelpriceincreasesandcapitalupgradingismorepronouncedwhenfuelpricesarelow.Athigherfuelpricelevels,thiseffectbecomessmallerandeventuallyinsignificant.Similarnon-lineareffectscannotbeobservedforelectricityprices.

Thestructureofthispaperisasfollows:

section2

,providesanoverviewoftheempiricalfirm-levelliteratureontheenergyprices-productivitynexuswhile

section3

setsabackgroundoftheinstitutionalchangespertainingtoenergypricesforChileanmanufacturingfirms.WethenintroducetheEstructuradelaindustriamanufactur-eradata(

INE

,

2015

)in

section4

,afterwhichweturntoourempiricalstrategyandtheresultsinsections

5

and

6

,respectively,beforeconcludingin

section7

.

2Literature

Theliteratureidentifiesfourmaintransmissionchannelsforhowfirmsmayrespondtoenergypriceinterventions(

Rentschleretal.

,

2017

;

Costeetal.

,

2018

):Onestrat-egy,wherefirmsinnovatebyadoptingmoreefficienttechnologiesandreapeconomicbenefit,isoftenreferredtoasthePorterHypothesis.

6

Additionally,firmsmaypursueothercopingstrategies,suchascostpass-ontocustomersandotherfirms,absorptionoradjustingproductioninputs,i.e.,substitution.

Evaluatingthesetransmissionchannels,theempiricalfirm-levelliteraturefindsbroadsupportforthePorter-typeinnovationhypothesis,wherepolicy-ledpricein-terventionsleadtoinnovationandnotablebusinessupgrading.

BrucalandDeche-

zlepr?etre

(

2021

)showthatlargeandenergy-intensivesectorsinIndonesianmanu-facturingtendtoreduceenergyconsumptionmostsignificantlyinresponsetoanenergypricehike.Plantsreacttohigherenergypricesbyupdatingtheircapitalstockandinvestinginnewandpresumablymoreenergy-efficienttechnology.Usingfirm-leveldataofsmallandmicroenterprisesfromIndonesiafor2013,

Rentschler

andKornejew

(

2018

)exploretheimpactofinputpricechangesofelectricityand

6TheliteraturedistinguishesbetweendifferentformsofthePorterHypothesis(

Ambecetal.

,

2013

):Underits”weak”form,environmentalregulationsspurinnovations,whileunderthe”strong”version,environmentalregulationswillleadtoincreasesinfirmcompetitiveness.The”narrow”in-terpretationstatesthatmoreflexibleregulationsmaybebetteratprovidingthepreferableincentivestructurestofirmsthanmoreprescriptiveforms.

5

variousfossilfuelsonfirmperformance.Theauthorsfindthathigherpricesforallenergytypesareassociatedwithhigherenergyefficiency.

Cal`?etal.

(

2023

)evaluateenergyprices’directandindirectimpactonfirms’economicperformanceforelevendevelopingcountriesbetween2002and2013.UsingWorldBankfirm-levelsurveydata,theauthorsfindthathigherenergypricesdonotnecessarilyhampereconomicperformance.Theyalsoreportconsiderableheterogeneities,asenergy-intensivefirmsreportasmallerperformanceeffectinresponsetoariseinenergypricesthantheirlessenergy-intensivecounterparts.

Cal`?etal.

(

2022

)focusonmedium-tolarge-sizedmanufacturingfirmsintwoemergingeconomies(MexicoandIndonesia).Theyfindthatwhilesurgesinelectricitypriceharmplants’performance,increasesinfuelpricesyieldpositiveoutcomesforlaborandtotalfactorproductivityandprofits.Theeffectsareparticularlypronouncedforcapital-intensivemanufacturingsectors.Inthesamevein,

Amannetal.

(

2021

)analyzetheeffectsofenergypricehikesonmanufacturingfirmsinOman.Theyshowthatincreasesinfossilfuelpricesarecausallylinkedtoimprovementsinproductivityandefficiencyandleadtonotablebusinessupgrading.As

Cal`?etal.

(

2022

),theOmanstudyonlyobservessuchinnovationeffectsforfossilfuelpriceincreasesbutnotforelectricityhikes,whicharemoredetrimentaltofirmperformance.

Theextenttowhichenergyinputscanserveassubstitutesdependsonthecountryandpolicycontext.

RentschlerandKornejew

(

2018

)findthatwhileelectricitycanbesubstitutedawaybyablendofotherenergysources,itplaysaminorroleinreplacingfossil-basedenergysources.

Amannetal.

(

2021

)evaluatethesubstitutabilityofelectricityandaggregatedfossilfuelsandfindthatOmanifirmssignificantlyincreasetheirkWhconsumptionofelectricityinresponsetorisingfuelprices.

Firm-levelevidencesuggeststhattheeffectivenessoftheabsorptionchannelsdependsonfirmcharacteristicsandsectoralattributes.Particularlyfirmsinenergy-intensivesectorsrespondmorestronglytopricehikes.

RentschlerandKornejew

(

2018

)highlightthatfirm-levelresponsepatternsofIndonesianmicro-firmsareverydifferentdependingontheanalyzedsector.

BrucalandDechezlepr?etre

(

2021

)reportthatforIndonesianmanufacturingfirms,energypriceincreasesarecausallylinkedtoupticksinplantexitandemploymentcontraction,particularlyforenergy-intensiveandlargefirms.Theauthorsalsoreportjobreallocationfromenergy-intensivetoenergy-efficientfirmsandsectors.

KumarandPrabhakar

(

2020

)analyzehowIndianenergy-intensiveexportsreacttochangesinenergypricesandfindadversetradeeffects,assertingthatcarbonleakageconcernsarenotnecessarilyunfounded.Fur-thermore,energy-intensivesectorsareaffectedmoreseverelybyenergypricehikes,mostnotablythenon-ferrousmetalandmachineryindustry.Inturn,

Cal`?etal.

(

2023

)donotfindstatisticalevidencethatpricehikesleadtoemploymentlosses

acrosselevendevelopingeconomiesbetween2002and2013.

Numerousstudiesidentifynotablecostpass-throughfromfirmstotheconsumerindicatingfirmsonlybearpartofthecarboncosts(

LinandJiang

,

2011

;

Arlinghaus

,

2015

;

JoltreauandSommerfeld

,

2019

).However,firm-levelevidenceonthistrans-missionchannelremainsrelativelyscarceforemergingeconomies.

Rentschlerand

Kornejew

(

2018

)confirmthathigherpricesforallenergytypesareassociatedwithhigherlong-runsalesinIndonesia.

Cal`?etal.

(

2023

)doonlyfindsignificantevidenceforanaggregatedcostpass-througheffectforfirmsexperiencingpoweroutages.

3InstitutionalSetting

In1998,Chilesufferedaseveredrought,whichhadanotableimpactontheenergygenerationoftheCentralInterconnectedSystem(SIC)network.

7

Thisevent,inconjunctionwithdisruptionsinthreenaturalgasplants,causedblackoutsbetweenNovember1998andApril1999,forcingthegovernmenttorationsupply(

Serra

,

2022

).Thesubsequentperiodofthelate-1990stomid-2000swascharacterizedbyheavyuseofnaturalgasinelectricitygenerationandmassivenaturalgasimportsfromArgentina(

Cansinoetal.

,

2018

).However,thegas-heavyenergyproductionepisodeabruptlystoppedin2005whenArgentinabeganrestrictingandtaxingnat-uralgasexportsduetodomesticdeficitsleadingtoanotablepricesurgeinChile.

Inresponse,Chilesawtheconstructionofnewcoalplantstoclosethewedgebetweenreducedenergysupplyandgrowingdemand.Coalplantsplayedacrucialroleinthisendeavorgiventheircomparablylowercostofelectricitygeneration(

Serra

,

2022

).Thecountryalsodiversifieditsenergymixintermsofenergytypeanddestination.Forexample,in2009/2010,ChileimportednaturalgasfromAlgeria,EquatorialGuinea,theArabRepublicofEgyptandIndonesiaandconstructedlarge-scaleliquefiednaturalgasterminals(

Mundacaetal.

,

2015

),leadingtoanoverallreductionintherelativeweightofhydropower(

Cansinoetal.

,

2018

).

Technologicaladvancementsandgrowingenvironmentalconcernshaveledtoastrongerfocusongreenandrenewableenergyinrecentyears.Bythe2010s,increas-ingpublicoppositionandstricterenvironmentalrequirementshaltedtheconstruc-tionofadditionalcoal-firedplants(

Serra

,

2022

),andnewpolicymeasurespromotingnon-conventionalrenewableenergieswereputintopractice(

MEFR

,

2008

;

Cansino

7Throughouttheanalyzedperiod,Chilehadfourmainelectricitygrids:theNorthernInter-

connectedSystem(SING),theCentralInterconnectedSystem(SIC),theAysenSystem(SEA),

andtheMagallanesSystem(SEM),withtheformerbeingintegratedintotheNationalElectricity

System(SEN).Withinthesegrids,numerousstate-ownedandprivateenergyproducershavebeen

inchargeofenergygeneration(Serra,2022).

6

7

etal.

,

2018

).Theyear2014alsosawthepassingofcarbontaxlegislationwiththeGeneralTaxReformBill.

8

4Data

TheChileanAnnualNationalIndustrialSurvey(ENIAfromnowon)ismadeavail-ablebytheNationalStatisticalInstitute(

INE

,

2015

).ENIAdataispubliclyavailableandspanstheperiod1995-2019.From1995to2007,ENIAoffersaharmonizedpaneldataset(referredtoasthecombineddata)whichidentifiesthesamemanufacturingfirmwithauniqueIDlinkingplantsovertime.Atthetimeofthisstudy,uniquefirmIDslinkingpaneldatawereunavailableand,untilrecently,ENIAhadmicrodataavailablefrom2016-2019inseparateannualwaves(withoutauniquefirmIDovertime).WerefertotheseseparatewavesastherawversiononENIA.

9

ThecombinedENIAdatasetsuffersfromalackofregionalandmanufacturingsector-levelidentifiers.TorecoverinformationonthelocationandtheISIC4-digitcodesforeachplant,weresorttotherawdataversionofENIA,whichcontainsbothdesiredvariables.Wematchplantsinthecombinedandrawdatabytheircommoncharacteristicsandapplythesamematchingtechniquestoexpandthepanelstructureinthepost-2007period.Thisprocedureyieldsafinaldatasetcontaining100,803observationson12,169plants,withanaverageof4,200uniquefirmsobservedacrosssurveyyears.WeprovideamoreextensivediscussiononthematchingalgorithminAppendix

C

.Asillustratedin

FigureA.2

,thematchingalgorithmachievesastablefirmsampleovertheentiresamplehorizonandalowattritionrate.

Thecombineddataalsoexhibitirregularitiespotentiallystemmingfrommis-reportedelectricityandfossilfuelprofiles.Weaddressthisissuebyemployingasimplecleaningalgorithm,whichprovidesarule-basedproceduretoidentifyandcorrectinter-temporalchangesinreportedquantitiesandunitpricesofpre-definedmagnitudes.WeprovideamoreextensivediscussiononthecleaningalgorithminAppendix

D

.

8Withitsinceptionin2014,thetaxreform(Ley20.780)fallstooclosetotheendofthesampleperiodtomeritanempiricalanalysis.Atthetimeofwriting,theimplementationofthepolicyremainsanongoingprocess;seetheWorldBank’s

ResultsBrief15February2021

andproject

MarketInstrumentsforClimateChangeMitigationinChile

(lastaccess:September2022).

9Theauthorsareworkingonarevisionoftheresultsusingthenewlyavailabledata.

8

5EmpiricalMethodology

5.1BaselineEstimation

ModelStructure.Ourempiricalsetupissimilartothatofotherworksintheliteraturesuchas

Amannetal.

(

2021

);

Cal`?etal.

(

2022

).Weestimate:

yit=βixit+εit,(1)

wherexit=[upL,upF]\denotetheunitpricesforelectricity(EL)andfossilfuels(FF)forfirmiandperiodt,respectively.Thecalculationoftheelectricityunitpricesisstraightforward:

quantity,

up:=value

(2)

wherevaluedenotesthepurchasedvalue(inrealLCU)andquantitydenotesthepur-chasedquantityofenergytypem={EL}.

10

Forthefossilfuelaggregate,wecalcu-latekWh-equivalentquantitiesforalln={coal,gas,diesel,petrol,LPG,kerosene}fossilfueltypesaccordingtotheconversionratesin

TableB.1

asfollows:

upF=工w×up,

n

對nq?,

w=q?

(3)

whereq?denotesthequantity(inkWhequivalents)offossilfueltypenforfirmiandperiodt,andwcorrespondstoitsfixed-quantityweight,respectively.Thecalculationoftheindividualupseriesisidenticalto

Equation2

form=n.Thetwoenergyunitpriceserieswederiveinthiswayarevisualizedin

FigureA.3

.

DependentVariables.Weanalyzetheeffectofenergypricevariationsonfirm-leveloutcomes,yit.Tothisend,wecompartmentalizetheoutcomevariablesbyapplyingtheframeworkintroducedin

section2

totheextenttowhichthisispos-siblewiththeopen-accessversionofENIA.

11

Wedefinethesedomainsas:invest-

10AllmonetaryseriesaredeflatedusingISIC2-digitindustry-levelfollowing

Haraguchiand

Amann

(

2023

).

11AmoredetailedanalysisofadditionalvariablesofinterestsuchasTFPQorothercopingmechanisms,particularlythecostpass-throughdimension,wasnotpossibleduetocurrentdata

9

mentandproductivity/survival,substitutionandabsorption.Onthecompetitive-ness/innovationeffects,weevalu