第二次作業(yè)課件

人的差異在于業(yè)余時間第二次作業(yè)第二次作業(yè)人的差異在于業(yè)余時間第二次作業(yè)第二次作業(yè)150頁題6.30023669999111110120000關(guān)鍵線路有兩條為B—E—G和B—F—H,TC=11。選擇工序B為壓縮對象，q=8<p,△t=1。重新計算時間參數(shù)和關(guān)鍵線路。002355881010101000010000關(guān)鍵線路有兩條為A--C—E—G和B—F—H,TC=10?？紤]同時壓縮工序E、F，q=7+9=16>p,壓縮會使總費用上升。故當(dāng)前計劃為最低成本計劃。當(dāng)規(guī)定周期為8周時，繼續(xù)對工序時間壓縮。先考慮壓縮工序E、F，壓縮時間△t=1。重新計算時間參數(shù)和關(guān)鍵線路。00235577779900000000關(guān)鍵線路有三條：A—D—G,B—F—H,A—C—E—G。同時壓縮B、C、D各1天。00224466668800010000注：本題沒有給各工序正常工序時間下的費用，故總費用沒法計算。題6.4網(wǎng)絡(luò)計劃圖計算時間參數(shù)，找出關(guān)鍵線路。題6.5關(guān)鍵線路：B—C—E—F—G。查標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正態(tài)分布數(shù)值表得，0.33-0.331.780000.340.14課本167頁例題177頁7.1（1）損益矩陣方案銷量d150d2100d3150d4200501000-100-2001001002001000150100200300200200100200300400方案銷量d150d2100d3150d4200501000-100-2001001002001000150100200300200200100200300400（2）悲觀法（小中取大原則）f(d1)=100,f(d2)=0,f(d3)=-100,f(d4)=-200取方案d1,購買50本。樂觀法（大中取大）f(d1)=100,f(d2)=200,f(d3)=300,f(d4)=400取方案d4，購買200本。等可能法f(d1)=100,f(d2)=150,f(d3)=150,f(d4)=100取方案d2或d3，購買100或150本。（3）后悔矩陣方案銷量d150d2100d3150d4200500100200300100100010020015020010001002003002001000f(d1)=300,f(d2)=200,f(d3)=200,f(d4)=300選d2或d3,購買100本或150本。題7.2方案銷量d150d2100d3150d42000.2501000-100-2000.410010020010000.31501002003002000.1200100200300400各方案的期望值：f(d1)=100f(d2)=0*0.2+200*0.8=160f(d3)=-100*0.2+100*0.4+300*0.3+300*0.1=140f(d4)=-200*0.2+0*0.4+200*0.3+400*0.1=60取方案d2，購買100本。方案銷量d150d2100d3150d42000.25001002003000.410010001002000.315020010001000.12003002001000后悔矩陣后悔值法：f(d1)=0*0.2+100*0.4+200*0.3+300*0.1=130f(d2)=100*0.2+0*0.4+100*0.3+200*0.1=70f(d3)=200*0.2+100*0.4+0*0.3+100*0.1=90f(d4)=300*0.2+200*0.4+100*0.3+0*0.1=150選方案d2，購買100本。（2）完全信息下的收益EPPI=100*0.2+200*0.4+300*0.3+400*0.1=230EVPI=EPPI–EMV（先）=230-160=70（元）題7.3MU(M)-200-1000100200300400U(M)10.89440.948711.04881.0951.141.183期望值法：f(d1)=1.0488f(d2)=1*0.2+1.095*0.8=1.076f(d3)=0.9487*0.2+1.0488*0.4+1.14*0.4=1.06526f(d4)=0.8944*0.2+1*0.4+1.095*0.3+1.183*0.1=1.02568選方案d2,購買100本。方案銷量d150d2100d3150d42000.2501.048810.94870.89440.41001.04881.0951.048810.31501.04881.0951.141.0950.12001.04881.0951.14400后悔值法：f(d1)=1*0.2+1.0488*0.4+1.095*0.3+1.14*0.1=1.06202f(d2)=1.0488*0.2+1*0.4+1.0488*0.3+1.095*0.1=1.0339f(d3)=1.095*0.2+1.0488*0.4+1*0.3+1.0488*0.1=1.0434f(d4)=1.14*0.2+1.095*0.4+1.0488*0.3+1*0.1=1.08064選方案d2,購買100本。方案銷量d150d2100d3150d42000.25011.04881.0951.140.41001.048811.04881.0950.31501.0951.048811.04880.12001.141.0951.04881后悔矩陣題7.7x1:可以投資x2：不宜投資投資成功投資失敗5272300037604772.164272.16（1）應(yīng)咨詢。（2）若咨詢結(jié)果為可以投資，則應(yīng)投資；若咨詢結(jié)果為不宜投資，則應(yīng)存銀行。補充練習(xí)：某廠對某零件的采購價格為：

年需求量10000件，每次訂購費（固定費用）2000元，保管費（每件每年）為價格的20%，不允許缺貨，求最佳采購批量。

AEB1B2B3C1C2C3D1D22040401070403030306040303020401050403060220頁9.1300404070601107080110A—B2—C1—D1—EA—B3—C1—D1—EA—B3—C2—D2—Ex1x2x3x4s1s2s3s4題9.2階段變量k表示零售店號，k=1,2,3,4.狀態(tài)變量Sk表示給第k個零售店送貨前剩余貨物的箱數(shù)。決策變量xk表示給第k個零售店的貨物箱數(shù)，狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移方程：Sk+1=Sk-xk。階段指標(biāo)Vk(Sk,xk)=vk表示xk箱貨物的價值。S3x3v3(x3)S4f4(S4)v3+f4(S4)f3(S3)x3*00000000001441300300255131472500500366132582514937007004661336925251037141148008005661346925361137251248141258008006661356925461137361348251358141268008123456407192113123,4133,4S2x2v2(x2)S3f3(S3)v2+f3(S3)f2(S2)x2*0000000000144120020027712146240040039912279241483600600411111239112427113614104800800512121241113243913362713481412590090061313125121424411153639154827155914136100010123456407090,1110,1,2131,2,3152,3,4S1x1v1(x1)S2f2(S2)v1+f2(S2)f1(S1)x1*006151514513172641117373916472714571411670076171,2最優(yōu)策略：x1=1x2=1x3=3x4=1x1=1x2=2x3=2x4=1x1=1x2=3x3=1x4=1x1=2x2=0x3=3x4=1x1=2x2=1x3=2x4=1x1=2x2=2x3=1x4=19.4題階段k表示第k個產(chǎn)品，k=1,2,3狀態(tài)變量Sk表示考慮第k個產(chǎn)品前的剩余資金，決策變量xk表示給第k個產(chǎn)品的研制費，Vk(Sk,xk)=vk狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移方程為Sk+1=Sk-xk00.610.50.310.400.80.3200