投資學(xué)之宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)與行業(yè)

第十七章宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析與行業(yè)分析17-2公司價(jià)值來(lái)自盈利前景，是由以下因素決定的：全球宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境外部環(huán)境對(duì)公司所在行業(yè)的影響公司在行業(yè)內(nèi)的地位基本面分析17-3全球股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)2008年的金融危機(jī)做出來(lái)相同的反應(yīng)。各個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)的表現(xiàn)可能很不同。企業(yè)在萎縮的的環(huán)境中比在擴(kuò)張的環(huán)境中更不容易成功。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)1脹7羊-4政帖治暴風(fēng)糟險(xiǎn):相鵲對(duì)頃于愛以變美貼國(guó)望為大基抽礎(chǔ)天進(jìn)賴行劑投糖資除所緞遭等遇碼的市風(fēng)倉(cāng)險(xiǎn)澇來(lái)勢(shì)說(shuō)恰，會(huì)全爸球川環(huán)顧境擾所蔽包盯含彼的泳政吐治杠風(fēng)經(jīng)險(xiǎn)遍更康大誘。匯儉率抹風(fēng)咐險(xiǎn):進(jìn)擦出緊口松價(jià)及格蔽的際變悟化全層球清經(jīng)覆濟(jì)1展7階-5表1毛7妥.嗽1經(jīng)恨濟(jì)赴表蜜現(xiàn)1曉7密-6國(guó)樂(lè)內(nèi)景宏線觀臨經(jīng)松濟(jì)股熟價(jià)找隨指收美益叔的疼增列加男而槐增銳加衡。市職盈鳴率腹的袋正補(bǔ)常浙范系圍叮在1碼2許-張2陰5之快間縫。要攤預(yù)純測(cè)花宏唐觀磨市牌場(chǎng)鼠表蜘現(xiàn)頃，創(chuàng)第破一帝步蹦是五評(píng)澇價(jià)師總繡體企經(jīng)宋濟(jì)蠻狀豪態(tài)誼。1捕7冊(cè)-7圖1對(duì)7近.肌2標(biāo)盞準(zhǔn)塊普巖爾5劃0粉0指匪數(shù)基和計(jì)每笛股付收刻益1部7無(wú)-8國(guó)跟內(nèi)眾生羞產(chǎn)殼總濕值失輔業(yè)蜘率通袍貨皺膨喊脹利太率預(yù)伯算墨赤端字消悅費(fèi)帆心訴理國(guó)朱內(nèi)速宏耕觀宵經(jīng)當(dāng)濟(jì)萍的筍關(guān)級(jí)鍵召變歉量1引7惱-9需幣求剖與病供職給刃波駁動(dòng)需育求桿波急動(dòng)-影忙響避經(jīng)緊濟(jì)凳中樹產(chǎn)薯品勒和厘服去務(wù)搞需凱求竊的候事紐奉件倦。供駕給舉波鳳動(dòng)-影敢響叨產(chǎn)牢能閉和找成削本逐的倉(cāng)事腔件觸。1頸7們-1腫0需陶求鄙方美政竭策財(cái)筑政正政帽策–政蘆府玻的旅支聲出青和飯稅撿收漁行忘為濾。貨且?guī)蓬佌{(lán)策–控市制加貨弄幣廳供標(biāo)給專。1伐7籍-1勝1財(cái)午政淋政戶策刺鳥激果或遲減察緩發(fā)經(jīng)炎濟(jì)絕的策最懷直悼接杏的謊方階法答。財(cái)挽政刷政播策映的魄制塔定解和液形幸成冷是撫一熄個(gè)艇緩銳慢更而棟繁順瑣啦的撤政巧治納過(guò)樓程夏。1崖7道-1葉2財(cái)秒政道政盞策總登結(jié)鞏政兵府跑財(cái)跨政匆政擔(dān)策陳凈撲影爪響粱的歐方全法悠是帽考糊察餡政茶府柜預(yù)緞算柿赤賽字發(fā)或渴盈眠余骨。赤耽字南刺爺激利了頓經(jīng)怨?jié)鲆蜓鼮榈。寒a(chǎn)臺(tái)品柴需業(yè)求林的例增珠加(通壁過(guò)呼支黎出)大糾于遼產(chǎn)熱品托需表求礦的數(shù)減驚少(通谷過(guò)胳稅音收)。1丑7鴉-1北3貨妥幣雕政鐵策控努制饒貨凈幣薯供劍給洽影徐響由宏它觀扔經(jīng)悼濟(jì)作。增澤加稿貨做幣收供附給荷、糠降部低煎利律率本，柏可念以河刺勸激汗經(jīng)槽濟(jì)矩。沒距有瓦財(cái)仙政懲政周策喇的曲影鞭響夾直以接版。貨環(huán)幣迫政滋策類的姜工裳具道包案括洋了坡公隔開投市歇場(chǎng)植運(yùn)蓬作關(guān)、耐折暢現(xiàn)母率豆、順準(zhǔn)偽備充金哲要賊求檔率憤。1伴7匪-1存4供偏給久方侍政友策目象標(biāo)越：師創(chuàng)默造對(duì)一荷個(gè)淋了匯良跌好貝的煤環(huán)德境船，皮使飛工船人丙和如資裹本銀所智有蟻者丹具愉有放最擱大紫的篩冬未季膝和脈能編力群去末生愉產(chǎn)知和茄開孝發(fā)鉆產(chǎn)線品爹。供切給離方希政剖策救關(guān)簽注仙如消何葵利藏用敵稅答收時(shí)政掏策訂來(lái)象激屬勵(lì)繩生融產(chǎn)梅和粥鼓宏勵(lì)把投慨資兄。1菌7焰-1幸5經(jīng)脆濟(jì)書周塌期經(jīng)晶濟(jì)滿周阿期副曲全線先的粱拐翻點(diǎn)膚被癢稱屠為墊高贈(zèng)峰似和丑谷懇底需。高扮峰封是置指葬從錢擴(kuò)街張坊期棉結(jié)躺束朽到巨收漂縮兩期承開漆始英的失這鉛個(gè)殃轉(zhuǎn)燒折訓(xùn)點(diǎn)遺。谷哄地勉位鋼于含經(jīng)材濟(jì)舉衰餃退恨結(jié)桂束撥，早進(jìn)后入么復(fù)裙蘇棵期剝的隔轉(zhuǎn)美折稱點(diǎn)羨。1喊7性-1掌6經(jīng)宗濟(jì)擁周它期周蝕期卷性裂行擁業(yè)對(duì)牙經(jīng)驅(qū)濟(jì)財(cái)狀較態(tài)頌的展敏撒感恭性聚超余出們一找般快水用平縮慧。例猜子褲包清括幕耐日用像品分生蛛產(chǎn)緣瑞商(如衛(wèi)汽吊車)和中資圖本買貨息物汪生肝產(chǎn)互商(即介其緩他趕廠聞商蜓用燭來(lái)冤生岔產(chǎn)怨自刻己宿產(chǎn)質(zhì)品駝的齒的傭產(chǎn)畏品胃。)貝講塔腳值能比津較蘇高防少御潮性妹行宴業(yè)對(duì)捏經(jīng)槍濟(jì)嘆周豬期房誠(chéng)的扁敏克感器性耕較徑低數(shù)。例鳥子脆包肉括懶食政品龜生邪產(chǎn)借商陜和防加培工肝商飽、魄藥由品貌加臘工峰廠氣以筒及見公派用積事兵業(yè)臉單趕位排。貝充塔齒值乒比鐘較究低1夫7朱-1鞭7先扮行芽經(jīng)仙濟(jì)叼指態(tài)標(biāo)喊往揚(yáng)往組先謝于忠其藥他思指狠標(biāo)潮變叉動(dòng)匯。同畫步蒼指替標(biāo)凱同金總斜體電經(jīng)餐濟(jì)隸變朽動(dòng)專一袋致蠻。滯火后谷指雞標(biāo)方稍雜微籌滯目后半于丈總航體悲經(jīng)箭濟(jì)楚。經(jīng)穩(wěn)濟(jì)邊指眠標(biāo)1穴7主-1麥8圖1蓄7夾.擠4先戚行蹈、柱同注步燥和墾滯冰后歐經(jīng)犁濟(jì)芹指旱標(biāo)1飼7成-1輸9表1便7坑.柱4有啞用鐵經(jīng)粥濟(jì)精指宿標(biāo)1虹7技-2提0經(jīng)救濟(jì)攪日朽歷黃表統(tǒng)栗計(jì)掉量店的束公吳布蕉日夫期篇和張經(jīng)漁濟(jì)度來(lái)鐮源侮等波許岔多獎(jiǎng)信攻息蓄會(huì)粥在《華顛爾刮街屋日睜報(bào)》、飲雅民虎剖金盯融緞網(wǎng)穴等淺媒云體被上嶺公排布搏。1脹7螞-2禮1圖1境7苦.倡5雅嫁虎動(dòng)經(jīng)緣瑞濟(jì)位日刺歷壯表1診7偵-2市2行族業(yè)喉分逮析處雷于逼一染個(gè)租?；鞕C(jī)徑重召重軍的躲行寒業(yè)幼，糕公漆司靠通效常出會(huì)看舉排步瞇維狼艱作。各傍行想業(yè)湊的嗓業(yè)餅績(jī)刺表睛現(xiàn)匯大救不糾相茫同晨。1禽7銳-2鏡3圖1驢7鵝.扣6領(lǐng)2豆0犬0盤9年傳行帖業(yè)箱凈少資煤產(chǎn)糞收章益戲率1添7洽-2戰(zhàn)4圖1帳7榮.斃7園2河0醋0厭9年采行蓋業(yè)怖股售票椅價(jià)自格坊表而現(xiàn)1錘7紅-2響5行懲業(yè)劃的副定錯(cuò)義北予美滔工稻業(yè)活分去類夜碼南（N塔A兆I咽C勢(shì)S乞c寄o炒d貪e滋s）有扁四虹個(gè)胖相收同獲數(shù)恭字醉的蔥北扇美么工債業(yè)逝分船類小碼叔的輪公莊司繡一焦般仙屬薯于騎同師一閥行癥業(yè)繳。1展7謠-2付6表1殿7牽.姻5北倆美躺工段業(yè)區(qū)分筑類來(lái)碼疫示霞例1售7行-2白7對(duì)梳經(jīng)姻濟(jì)漢周醫(yī)期由的秘敏脖感額性銷起售款額怨的追敏湊感拒度:必若需雕品臘和救酌妹情搭商處品對(duì)津經(jīng)觀濟(jì)輪狀霜況高不低敏樹感釋的犬項(xiàng)兵目(例凈如偽煙朗草救產(chǎn)沈品貸、目電落影)和戀對(duì)驕經(jīng)臉濟(jì)怕狀桃況億高氧度喂敏鵲感葬的煮項(xiàng)灣目(例禁如瘋機(jī)為械風(fēng)工亞具掘、旺鋼余鐵強(qiáng)、紫汽疲車屢）三捆個(gè)難因宅素?zé)⒛隂Q靜定資公獵司康收衛(wèi)益孤對(duì)違經(jīng)械濟(jì)貼周喇期尤的側(cè)敏繼感謊度銅：1現(xiàn)7咱-2界8圖1鏡7挪.左9行址業(yè)次周梳期膊性1會(huì)7鞋-2喚9對(duì)贊經(jīng)猶濟(jì)僚周扎期京的殿敏匆感厚性低數(shù)經(jīng)亡營(yíng)龜杠蓬桿搶的躁公扁司(固亭定乞成炎本只較薦低溫）豪對(duì)笑經(jīng)勒濟(jì)讀環(huán)順境痰的魯敏哨感罷性認(rèn)比舊較浴低叛。高良經(jīng)剃?duì)I巷杠呆桿淘的貿(mào)公胡司(固秘定奧成毀本丑較何高韻）罵對(duì)誰(shuí)經(jīng)語(yǔ)濟(jì)孟環(huán)瞎境命的輛敏難感找性非比拌較饑大談。經(jīng)句營(yíng)便杠沈桿:固訴定碰成需本郵和梨可氏變汽成盒本僚的漢差腰異1隊(duì)7墓-3壞0表1唐7明.守6公傻司A和岡公原司B在竿經(jīng)叉濟(jì)兩周辱期盯中阻的零經(jīng)爹營(yíng)默杠隔桿1帆7遣-3遙1對(duì)陣經(jīng)虹濟(jì)訴周業(yè)期劇的頭敏惱感鵝性利劫率盞是臺(tái)一路項(xiàng)刃可深以狼提患高憤經(jīng)好濟(jì)通周程期手敏微感兇度事的罷固嬌定東成株本局。財(cái)易務(wù)犧杠籮桿:反展映街財(cái)鄭務(wù)遵使堪用訴情置況1岔7揪-3迎2圖1步7憤.則1鍋0典百型陰經(jīng)疏濟(jì)五周跌期蒙變敞化寫示春意湊圖1咽7氧-3廣3部服門頓轉(zhuǎn)臉換根止據(jù)鉆商垂業(yè)霉周地期遍的蘋狀澡況醬預(yù)夾計(jì)酷業(yè)窮績(jī)?cè)谱繅涸桨甑那笮醒繕I(yè)蠻或侍部舊門俗，汁并摔使賽投相資磨組社合沫向陣這鏡些侮行值業(yè)質(zhì)或雞部友門敞投紐奉資緞傾懶斜賀。波鳥峰–自腰然采資矩源予開俊采礎(chǔ)公解司收半縮貝期–防遷御柴型眨行已業(yè)姑，敬如毒醫(yī)忙藥逆和挨食去品1窮7紗-3撈4部帽門何轉(zhuǎn)詠換谷姥底–投毯資啞資疫本中行拳業(yè)擴(kuò)梁張拐期–周堪期時(shí)性幟行氧業(yè)叫，時(shí)如往耐步用辦消帥費(fèi)序品1餡7勸-3軋5圖1察7竹.厚1粉1部退門牙轉(zhuǎn)民換1蝕7千-3陪6行愧業(yè)營(yíng)生飄命派周館期階慣段創(chuàng)匯業(yè)會(huì)階憶段成辛長(zhǎng)拖階輛段成始熟牧階慕段衰宏退乎階碰段銷醬售缸增陸長(zhǎng)急區(qū)劇幼擴(kuò)坊張較涉穩(wěn)轟定緩惱慢最月小傲或錘為竭負(fù)1疑7英-3定7圖1獸7喘.炎1華2行橋業(yè)衫生巧命缸周想期1提7攝-3煎8生卸命拒周間期周的壘哪袖一寄階保段在最抄具步有聯(lián)吸昏引批力?引眼用漢彼主得·林證奇曉在《彼辮得·林噴奇旋的底成蒙功副投項(xiàng)資》：“絹許痛多綁人畏愿估意像向拳高臣成輪長(zhǎng)普率笑的完行釣業(yè)局投赴資乏，逢那令里棟看庭上釀去戰(zhàn)熱閃鬧驅(qū)非魔凡晴。狡但撥我醋不將會(huì)翼，橡我筐更獎(jiǎng)愿技意攔向何成墨長(zhǎng)緣瑞率鍬較恨低拴的估行倦業(yè)哭投胖資·孤·