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2023/7/2113:56BuildingAIcities:HowtospreadthebenefitsofanemergingtechnologyacrossmoreofAmerica|Brookings

RESEARCH

BuildingAIcities:HowtospreadthebenefitsofanemergingtechnologyacrossmoreofAmerica

,,

MarkMuroJulianJacobsSifanLiu

July20,2023

AIactivity,evenmorethanmostdigitaltechnologies,remainsheavilyconcentratedinashortlistof“superstar”techcities

GenerativeAIactivityspecificallyalsoappearstobehighlyconcentratedsofar,asnearlyhalfofgenerativeAIjobpostingsofthelastyear

werepublishedinjustsixAI-leadermetroareas?SanFrancisco,SanJose,NewYorkLosAngeles,Boston,andSeattle)

Theuseof“open-source”technologyinthefieldcouldenablefasterdiffusionofAIcommerce,butthefutureisuncertain

ThenationanditsstatesshouldconsiderconcertedpolicyactionsatthisearlystagetobroadentheemergingAImapasthetechnologygrows

insignificance

Followtheauthors

@markmuro1

￡JulianDJacobs

￡Sifan_Liu

D

ramaticadvancesingenerativeartificialintelligence?AI?havetouchedoffintensedebatesaboutwhowill“win”therushtodeploythesetechnologies.MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutAI’spotentialtodisplacemillionsofworkers,but

leadersacrossthecountryalsoseetheemergingtechnologyasan

opportunitytoboosttheproductivityanddynamismoftheirregionaleconomies.

Ononehand,generativeAIhassuddenlymadeartificialintelligence’sstatusasthenextgreat“generalpurposetechnology”muchmorepalpable,eventolocalbusinesspeople,asMicrosoftandGoogleintegrateAIchatbotssuchasChatGPTandBardintotheirsearchengines.Atthesametime,therelativescarcityofAIresearchcentersandcompanies—andBigTech’sdominationofthosethatdoexist—israisingquestionsabouttheopportunitystructureandgeographyoftheAIrevolution,iflefttoitsowndevices.

ThegenerativeAIboommaywelldemocratizethebroaderAIindustrybeyondBig

TechanditscoredevelopmenthubsinSanFranciscoandSeattle—butitcouldalso

sustainorreinforcetheindustry’sconcentratedgeography.

“AIisincreasinglydefinedbytheactionsofasmallsetofprivatesectoractors,rather

thanabroaderrangeofsocietalactors,”observed

(

/report/

?StanfordUniversity’sInstituteforHuman-CenteredArtificialIntelligenceinareportearlierthisyear.Suchdynamicsarereinforcingthosethathavedefineddigitalizationsincethe1980s.TheyarealsolikelytoensurethatmostAIdevelopmentactivity(andhiring)remainshighlyconcentrated

inashortlistof“superstar”(/articles/superstars-rising-

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stars-and-the-rest-pandemic-trends-and-shifts-in-the-geography-of-tech/)metro

areasandearlyadopterhubs,asBrookingsdescribed

(

/research/the-geography-of-ai/

)ina2021report.Inthatreport,Brookingsdocumentedthetechnicalandbusinessdominanceofearly-stageAIdevelopmentcenterssuchasSanFrancisco,SanJose,Calif.,Seattle,andBoston.

TheeffectiveuniversaldeploymentofgenerativeAImaywellwidenthegeographyoftheoverallAIindustry—butthenagain,itmightinsteadhardenthedominanceoftheindustry’scorehubs,especiallywhenitcomestoresearchanddevelopment.Highandpersistentlevelsofindustryconcentrationcouldhavenegativeimplicationsforeconomicopportunity,regionalgrowth,andthedevelopmentofanAIsectorthatservesabroadconsumerbasewithvariedproductsandservices.

AllofwhichsuggeststhatifgenerativeAIistoboostprosperityinmoreplacesaroundthecountry,itwilllikelyrequireadegreeofintentionalinvestment—mostnotably,fromthefederalgovernment—innewregions.

AUTHORS

MarkMuro

SeniorFellowˉ

BrookingsMetro

@markmuro1

JulianJacobs

EconomistˉOMFIF,ResearchConsultantˉBrookingsInstitution

￡JulianDJacobs

SifanLiu

FormerSeniorResearchAnalystˉBrookingsMetro

￡Sifan_Liu

Thisisthesubjectofthecurrentreport.AcompaniontotheearlierBrookingspaper

(

/research/the-geography-of-ai/

)thatwarnedaboutthe

unevengeographyofAIactivity,thediscussionherereviewstheAIlocationproblem

andhighlightskeyfederal,state,andlocalpolicymovesthatcouldcounterit.

ThereportbeginsbyreviewingtheintenselyconcentratednatureoftheoverallAIindustry(asopposedtotherecentboomingenerativeAI?andsuggestingtheneedtowidenthesectortoensurebroaderparticipation.?AtafewpointsthereporttouchesonthespecificgrowthtrajectoryofgenerativeAIapplications.?Afterthat,thereportrecommendsanarrayoffederal,state,andlocalactionsthatcouldpromotemoreevengeographicdevelopmentastheindustryentersanewgrowthstagepoweredbygenerativeAI.Ultimately,thereportsuggeststhatpolicymakersnowhaveanopportunitytobringaboutmoregeographicallyinclusivedevelopmentforoneofthemostimportantinnovationsofourtime.

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THEISSUESANDCHALLENGESSURROUNDINGTHEGEOGRAPHYOFTECH

Advancedeconomieshaveincreasinglyrecognizedthatthegeographyofwherejobsandbusinessesrelatedtoemergingtechnologieslocatehasbecomeachallenge.Theartificialintelligenceindustry—andpotentiallyitssub-categoryofgenerativeAI—standsoutasaprimeexampleofthis,giventhatitencompassespowerfullydisruptivedigitaltechnologies.

Thereisnodoubtthattheemergenceofpowerfultechnologiestendstohave

significantspatialramifications(/research/growth-centers-

how-to-spread-tech-innovation-across-america/)fornations.Thisisparticularlytrue

ofdigitaltechnologies,whereinnovationtendstobeconcentratedbutproductsarewidelyused,givennetworkeffectsacrossmassiveplatforms.

IntheU.S.,recentwavesoftechinnovationandadoptionhavegreatlyalteredthe

nation’seconomiclandscape.Thesewaveshavebroughtboththediffusionofnew

technologiesintonewregions(withlocaleconomicbenefits),butalsointense

clusteringofjobsandbusinessesrelatedtothem,whichhascontributedtovast

inequalityamongregionaleconomies.

Onestring

(

/publications/econometrica/1957/10/01/hybrid-

corn-exploration-economics-technological-change)ofresearch

(

/system/files/working_papers/w28999/w28999.pdf

)hasfound

thatoncenewtechnologiesmature,theybegintospreadoutgeographically.These

effectsmaybegradual,buttheyarerealandbeneficial.Withthatsaid,theinvention,

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development,andscale-upofdisruptivetechnologieshasalsobeenrecognizedas

geographicallyskewed.

EconomistEnricoMorettihas

shown(/~moretti/clusters.pdf)

thattheU.S.high-techsectorhasincreasinglyconcentratedinasmallnumberofexpensive,mostlycoastalcities,withthetop10citiesforcomputerscience,semiconductors,andbiologyandchemistryaccountingfor70%,79%,and59%of

thoseinventors,respectively.EconomistNicholasBloomandhiscolleaguesstudied

(

/research/research-papers/the-geography-of-new-

technologies)29disruptivetechnologiesfromthelast20yearsandfoundthatthe

distributionofthosejobsremainedhighlyconcentrated,withlong-lastingadvantagesforthe“pioneer”locations.

AndBrookingsMetrorecentlydescribed

(

/research/superstars-rising-stars-and-the-rest-pandemic-

trends-and-shifts-in-the-geography-of-tech/)asimilar“winner-take-most”dynamicin

sixdigitalserviceindustries,wheretheconcentrationofemploymentinashortlistof“superstar”metroareashasbeenincreasingoverthelastdecade.

Despitetheknownbenefits(/research/rethinking-cluster-

initiatives/)ofsuchindustryclustering,theunevengeographyoftechisnotalways

benign.Mostnotably,certainaspectsofclustering—basedontech-inherent

influencessuchas

first-moveradvantages(/papers/w28533?

,

agglomerationdynamics(/papers/w14806?

,andthenetwork

effects(/referenceworkentry/10.1057/978ˉ1ˉ349ˉ94848ˉ

2_552ˉ1?producedbytechplatforms(/wp-

content/uploads/sites/1774/2021/04/Regional-Income-Disparities_2020.pdf)—

threatenthebalanceoftheeconomy.

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Asaninnovationmatter,thenation’shyper-concentratedtechgeographymaybenarrowingtherangeofpossibletechadvancementsandcreatingharmfulimbalancesamongfirms,localecosystems,andtheresourcestheycommand.Andasaneconomicdevelopmentissue,suchimbalancestendtocreatelargepoolsofhigh-skill

workersinsomeareaswhileotherareassuffera“braindrain”thatleaveslower-skill

workersbehind(/papers/w24632?.

THEAIINDUSTRYISBECOMINGHIGHLYCONCENTRATED

Artificialintelligence,inbroadform,epitomizesthefrequentgeographicunevenness

ofemergingtechnologybuild-out.NicholasBloom’sresearch

(

/research/research-papers/the-geography-of-new-

technologies)trackedmachinelearningandAIasoneofits29disruptivetechnologies,

anddepictedbothasseeingagradualdiffusionoflower-skilljobsyetapersistent

centralizationofthehighest-valuework.BrookingsMetro’s2021report

(

/research/the-geography-of-ai/

)showedanevenmoreskeweddevelopmentpattern.EmployingaclusteranalysisofmetroareadatacoveringsevenmeasuresofAIresearchandcommercializationacross384metroareas,wefoundthatAIactivityintheU.S.ishighlyconcentratedinashortlistof“superstar”hubsand“earlyadopter”centers.

Amongthesehubs,SanFranciscoandSanJose,Calif.aloneaccountedforaboutone-quarterofAIconferencepapers,patents,andcompaniesin2021.TheseBayAreametroareasalsoboastedaboutfourtimesasmanyAIcompanies,jobpostings,andjobprofilesastheaveragevaluesofthenexttierof13earlyadoptermetroareas.Centraltotheirsuccessaretheworld’stwotopuniversitiesinAIresearch?StanfordandtheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley)aswellasmanyoftheworld’sleadinginvestorsinAIresearchanddevelopment,includingAlphabet,Facebook,Salesforce,andNVIDIA.

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Addinthe13earlyadoptermetroareas(whichrangefromNewYorkandBostonto

Seattle,Austin,Texas,andRaleigh,N.C.),andthetop15AImetroareasencompass

abouttwo-thirdsofthenation’sAIassetsandcapabilities.

AstogenerativeAI,datalimitationsassociatedwithitsrecentnessrestrictwhatcanbesaid.However,atleastonesignal—January2023toMay2023jobpostingsdatafromLightcast—pointstothekindofhighlyconcentratedjobmarketexpectedforanewlyemergentapplication.InMay2023,nearly60%ofnewgenerativeAIjobswerepostedintheBayAreaoroneofthe13earlyadoptermetroareas,includingSeattle,hometoMicrosoft.Andoverthepreceding10months,justsixmetroareas?SanFrancisco,SanJose,NewYork,LosAngeles,Boston,andSeattle)accountedfornearlyhalf?47%?ofthenation’sgenerativeAIjobpostingsintheBrookingsdatabase.

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Tobesure,thebroaddiffusionofgenerativeAIapplications(includingthroughmajorsearchenginesandappstores)mayensurethatatleastpartofthegenerativeAIeconomyspreadswidely.Open-sourcedistributionandwidespreadlicensingoflargelanguagemodelsmayalsodecentralizetheindustry.Butthewidedistributionofadigitaltechnologydoesnotnecessarilyentailthewidedistributionofitsassociatedinnovation,jobcreation,andexecutiveleadership.

EarlyindicationssuggestthatgenerativeAI’smostadvancedcoreresearchanddevelopmentactivitieswilllikelyremainconcentratedinafewtopcentersofgeneralandgenerativeAIwork.Suchtrendsdepictthegeographicsideofnation’sAIchallengeasthegenerativeAIerascalesup.Asamatterofeconomicdevelopment,currenttrendssuggestthat“relativelyfewplaceswilldrivethebulkofearly-stageAI-

relateddevelopment,”asBrookings’sAlanBerubeandMaxBouchetwrote

(

/wp-

content/uploads/2021/03/20210406_BrookingsMetro_Louisville-AIˉData-Econ-

Jobs_Final.pdf)aboutLouisville,Ky.’ssituationpriortotheChatGPTmoment.That

narrownessmaylimitmanyplaces’AIprospects,astheAI“rich”onlygetricher.

Morebroadly,theextremeclusteringofAIactivitiesinafewhubsanchoredbyeliteuniversitiesandmajorcorporationshasramificationsfortheprosperityandhealthofthenation.SuchclusteringandtheparallelemergenceofAI“deserts”couldlimitgenerativeAI’svariety,accessibility,andpotentialtoimprovethequalityoflifeinmanycommunities.

AsSethuramanPanchanathanoftheNationalScienceFoundation?NSF?andAlondra

NelsonoftheOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy?OSTP?wrotelastyearina

NationalAIResearchResource?NAIRR?TaskForcereport(/wp-

content/uploads/2022/05/NAIRRˉTFˉInterim-Report-2022.pdf),“pathwaysintoAI

researcharetoooftenaccessibletoalimitedfew.Muchoftoday’scutting-edgeAIresearchreliesonaccesstolargevolumesofdataandadvancedcomputationalpower,whichareoftenunavailabletomanyresearchersbeyondthoseatlargetechnologycompaniesandwell-resourceduniversities.Thislackofaccesscanleadtocommunities—particularlythosethathavelongbeenunderrepresentedorunderserved—beingleftoutoftheAIresearchanddevelopmentprocess.”

Addinthe“winner-take-most”dynamicofdigitaleconomies,andit’slikelythatthe

growinggeographicaldivergenceoftheAIsectorcouldeasilybecomeentrenched,

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evenasthegenerativeAIgoldrushholdsoutpotentialopportunityfornewfirmsin

newplaces.

MARKETSALONEWON’TSOLVETHEAICONCENTRATIONPROBLEM

TheincreasinggeographicconcentrationofAIraisesthequestionofwhetherpolicy

canorshouldbemarshaledtocounteritandpromotemorebroadlysharedbenefits.

Noteveryoneagreesthatthenation’snarrowAIgeographymeritsapolicyresponse.Somearguethatsuchimbalanceshaveservedthetechsectorwellandmightevenbetheoptimal,market-ordainedconfigurationformaximizinginnovationinAI,giventhepowerofinnovationclusters.OtherscontendthatimbalancesintheAIsectorwillatleastpartiallyself-correct,andbroaderdiffusiontrendswilltakeoverwithtime.NicholasBloom’sresearchondisruptivetechnologiesreinforcesthatpossibility—atleastwhenitcomestolower-qualityjobsinmaturingsectors.

However,goodreasonsexisttodoubtsuchlaissez-faireviewsandfavorinterventionstocounterexcessiveAIdivergence.Tostart,thenegativeeffectsofexcessivelocaltechindustryconcentrationareincreasinglywellrecognized.Economistsandpolicymakersareincreasinglyworriedaboutthesideeffectsofextremeindustryunevennessintheeconomy,includingsucheffectsasspiralinghousingpricesin

superstarmetroareasaswellaslosttalent(http://www.equality-of-

/assets/documents/inventors_paper.pdf)inthecommunitiesleftbehind.

Today,thoseeconomistsandpolicymakersarealsomorewillingtoconsiderintentionalpolicyinterventionstooffsetexcessiveconcentrationsoftech-based

development.Scholarshipisincreasinglyhighlightingthesuccessesof“place-based

industrialpolicy”(/blog/the-avenue/2022/12/15/breaking-

down-an-80-billion-surge-in-place-based-industrial-policy/)—effortstoadjustthe

qualityandgeographyofadvanced-economyscale-upandgrowth.DetailedbyShawnKantorandAlexanderWhalley,acaseinpointisfederaltechnologyinvestmentduring

theSpaceRace(/file/d/1hVWGALLLPXkZCVaHhz-

rh7BASwPKzneU/view),whichdeliveredsocialratesofreturnonpublicresearchanddevelopmentabove20%,whilepermanentlyalteringandimprovingthegeographyofhigh-techeconomicactivityintheU.S.

Giventheseinsights,thenationanditsstatesshouldconsiderconcertedactionsto

broadentheemergingAImapasthetechnologygrowsinsignificance.

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Therationaleforactioniscompelling.ThedynamismoftheU.S.industrialbasedependsonincreasedinnovationinmoreregions,towhichAIwillbecentral.DoingnothingwilllikelyleaveAItoconcentrateevenmore,andwithmoreconcentrationwillcomeincreasedmarginalizationofthe“rest”ofthenation.Thatmeanscontinuedisolationofdiverseregions,firms,andpeoplefromthewavesofadvancementlikelycomingthroughgenerativeAIandotherindustries’useofit,suchasinfinance,health,transportation,education,foodproduction,andenvironmentalsustainability.

Inlightofthat,thenationshouldmovetointentionallypromotediffusionofAIactivitiesintonewplacesandcounterthewinner-take-mostgeographyofacriticalfutureindustry.Centraltosuchactionsshouldbeplace-orientedmeasurestoimprovetheavailabilityofkeyinputstoAIinnovationandcommercialadoptioninscoresofpromisingregions.Suchmeasuresshouldmoveto:

ExpandpublicsectorresearchinwidelydistributedinstitutionsasacountertotheincreasingtiltofresearchtowardBigTechfirmsandmajoruniversitiesinashortlistofsuperstarhubs.

Democratizeaccesstocomputingresourcesandlargedatasetsinordertosupportadvancesoutsidethesuperstarorbit.

Investinthetalentthatwilldrivedynamicecosystemsinnewplaces.

PromotetheemergenceofvibrantAIdevelopmentecosystemsinmoreregions.

Intermsoftakingtheleadonthesepriorities,thefederalgovernment—withitsscopeandcross-borderjurisdiction—willneedtoplaythelargestroleinspreadingoutAIdevelopmentandemployment.Butstates,regions,andlocalactorswillalsoneedtocontributetoshapingregionalstrategies,mobilizingstakeholders,anddeliveringprograms.

FEDERALPOLICIESTOBROADENTHEEMERGINGAIMAP

FederalleadershipwillbeessentialtopushagainstexcessiveAIsectorconcentration.Thepowerofdigital“superstar”dynamicsandthevastnessoftheU.S.landmass

meanthatonlythefederalgovernmenthasthereachandresources

(

/research/growth-centers-how-to-spread-tech-

innovation-across-america/)tobroadenAI’sgeography.Fortunately,thenational