2023年Q2天然氣市場(chǎng)報(bào)告

GasMarketReport,

Q2-2023

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergy

issuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyand

demand,renewableenergytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accessto

energy,demandsidemanagementandmuch

more.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates

policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31

membercountries,11associationcountriesand

beyond.

Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinare

withoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereignty

overanyterritory,tothedelimitationof

internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothe

nameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

IEAmembercountries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

CzechRepublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

NewZealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiye

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropeanCommission

alsoparticipatesinthework

oftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

Argentina

Brazil

China

Egypt

India

Indonesia

Morocco

Singapore

SouthAfrica

Thailand

Ukraine

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Tableofcontents

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 5

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast 11

GasdemandincreasedinNorthAmericaduringthewinter,butis

expectedtocontractin2023 12

GrowthinUSgasconsumptionduringthepastwinterwassustainedby

powergenerationandheatingneedsduringcoldweatherinQ4 13

GasconsumptionsawalimiteddeclineinCentralandSouthAmerica

in2022,andisexpectedtostabilisein2023 14

DeclinesingasdemandinArgentinaandBrazilin2022werealmost

balancedbygrowthinotherCentralandSouthAmericanmarkets 15

GasuseforpowergenerationremainslowinBrazilinQ12023on

stronghydroavailabilityandlimitedelectricitydemandgrowth 16

Europeangasdemanddroppedbyarecord55bcmduringthe2022/23

heatingseason 17

Mildweather,energysavingmeasuresandlowergasuseinindustry

weighedongasdemand 18

Asiangasdemandcameunderpressurein2022;recoveryin2023is

expectedtobemodest 19

WidespreaddeclinesindemandinAsiaduring2022aresettobe

followedbyanunevenrecoveryin2023 21

USnaturalgasoutputmaintainsitsgrowth,drivenbyPermianoil-

drivenproduction 22

USnaturalgasproductionremainedclosetotherecord100bcf/dmark

duringQ12023 23

USnaturalgasproductionkeepsgrowingin2023,

butataslowerpace 24

LNGbecameabaseloadsupplyforEurope 25

accountingfortwo-thirdsofimportsduringthe2022/23heating

season 26

GlobalLNGdemandmoderatedinQ1whileremainingstrongin

Europe 27

TheUnitedStatesissettodriveLNGsupplygrowthin2023 29

Notfeelingtheheat:Gaspricesmoderatedsignificantlyduringthe

2022/23winter 30

AsianspotLNGandTTFpricesareexpectedtoremainabovetheir

historicaveragesin2023 31

Mildwinterandlowgasdemanddepressedstoragewithdrawalsover

the2022/23winterseason 32

Storagelevelsclosedthe2022/23heatingseasonwellabovetheirfive-

yearaverage 33

IntheEuropeanUnionstorageinjectionsequaltohalfoflastyear’s

wouldsufficetoreach90%filllevelsbythestartofthe2023/24heating

season 34

Spotlightone-methane 35

E-methane:Agasfitfornetzero? 36

E-methaneischaracterisedbyacomplexvaluechainwithsubstantial

efficiencylosses 39

E-methane’shighproductioncostsrequirefurthertechnological

developmentandpolicysupport 40

Japan:Afirstmoverinthee-methanespace 41

Japanhassetatargetfore-methanetomeet90%ofitscitygassupply

by2050 43

Japanisactivelydevelopinginternationalvaluechains

fore-methane 44

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Tableofcontents

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|4

Annex 45

Summarytable 46

Regionalandcountrygroupings 47

Abbreviationsandacronyms 48

Unitsofmeasure 48

Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits 49

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|5

Executivesummary

Agradualrebalancingofnaturalgasmarkets

Globalgasmarketsmovedtowardsagradualrebalancingoverthe2022/23heatingseason,followingthesupplyshocksparkedbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022.SpotgaspricesacrossthekeynortheastAsian,NorthAmericanandEuropeanmarketsdroppedbycloseto70%betweenmid-Decemberandtheendofthefirstquarterof2023,whilestoragesitesendedtheheatingseasonwellabovetheirfive-yearaverages.

Thereducedmarketstrainsandrelativelywellstockedstoragesitesaheadofthesummerarereasonsforcautiousoptimismforsupplysecurity.However,thisconfluenceoffactorsshouldnotdistractfromthefurthermeasuresneededtomitigatepotentialrisksthatcouldquicklyrenewmarkettensionsandpricevolatility.

TheEuropeanandglobalgasmarketssufferedamajorsupplyshockin2022whenRussiasharplyreduceditspipelinegasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnion–by80%overthecourseoftheyear–andtriggeredaglobalenergycrisis.Russia’ssteepgassupplycutsledtoareconfigurationofglobalLNGflows,droveupnaturalgaspricestoall-timehighsbothinAsiaandEuropeandnecessitatedareadjustmentingasdemand.

Thelatestestimatesindicatethatglobalgasconsumptionfellby1.5%in2022–similartothedropexperiencedin2020followingthefirstwaveofCovid-19lockdowns.ThebulkofdemandreductionwasconcentratedinthekeyEuropeanandAsianimportmarkets.Thesharpincreaseingaspricessupportedgas-to-coalswitchingdynamicsinthepowersectoranddepressedgasuseinenergy-intensiveindustries.Enhancedenergyefficiencymeasuresandthecontinueddeploymentofrenewablesreducedgasdemandinastructuralmanner.

Thestrongdeclineingasdemandcontinuedintotheearlymonthsof2023duetofavourableweatherconditionsandtimelypolicyactions.NaturalgasconsumptioninadvancedeconomiesinEuropefellbyanestimated55billioncubicmetres(bcm)year-on-yearduringthe2022/23heatingseason–itssteepestdropinabsolutetermsforanywinterseasononrecord.

ThesteepdeclineinnaturalgasdemandreducedtheneedforstoragewithdrawalsinEuropeandtheUnitedStatesoverthe2022/23winter.IntheEuropeanUnion,storageinjectionsequaltoonlyhalfofthelevelseeninsummer2022wouldbeenoughtoreachtheEUtargetoffillingstoragesto90%bythestartofthe2023/24heatingseason.Lowerinjectiondemandoversummer2023couldpotentiallycontributetoafurthereasingofmarketfundamentals.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

%changecomparedto15December2022

15-Dec-22

22-Dec-22

29-Dec-22

05-Jan-23

12-Jan-23

19-Jan-23

26-Jan-23

02-Feb-23

09-Feb-23

16-Feb-23

23-Feb-23

02-Mar-23

09-Mar-23

16-Mar-23

23-Mar-23

30-Mar-23

Markettensionshavemoderatedsignificantlysincemid-December2022

Evolutionofkeyregionalkeygasmarketssince15December2022

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

TTFHenryHubAsianspotLNG

-80%

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonCME(2023),

HenryHubNaturalGasFuturesQuotes,

CME(2023),

DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements;

ICIS(2023),

ICISLNGEdge.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|7

Globalgassupplyissettoremaintightin2023amid

lowerRussianpipelinegasdeliveriestoEurope

GlobalLNGsupplyisforecasttoincreasebyamere4%(orover20bcm)in2023.ThiswouldnotbesufficienttooffsettheexpectedreductioninRussia’spipedgassuppliestoEurope.

TheUnitedStatesisprojectedtoaccountforoverhalfoftheglobalsupplyincreasein2023andbecometheworld’slargestLNGexporter.ThisgrowthwillbesupportedprimarilybytherampingupoftheCalcasieuPassLNGterminalandtherestartofFreeportLNG,whichreturnedtofullserviceattheendofthefirstquarterof2023.InadditiontotheUnitedStates,LNGsupplyfromAfricaandSouthandCentralAmericaisprojectedtoincreasebycloseto10bcmamidimprovingfeedgasavailabilityandtherampingupoftheCoralSouthandCongofloatingLNGplants.Bycontrast,Russia’sLNGoutputisexpectedtodecline.Sakhalin-IILNG’sprojectoperatorannouncedinFebruary2023thattheplantwillmoveawayfromthe"peakload"strategyithasbeenpursuinginthelastfewyears,whileproductionfromYAMALLNGisexpectedtodeclineby5%year-on-yearin2023.

ThelevelofRussianpipelinegassuppliesisamajoruncertaintyfortheremainderof2023.IfflowstotheEuropeanUnioncontinueatthelevelsseeninthefirstquarter,RussianpipedgasdeliveriestoadvancedeconomiesinEuropewoulddropby45%(orover35bcm)in2023comparedwith2022.Followinga90bcmdropinRussiangasproductionin2022,lowerexportsand

muteddomesticdemandareexpectedtofurtherreduceRussia’soutputbyover50bcmin2023,addingtothechallengesfacingtheRussiangasindustry.

Globalgasdemandisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatin

2023

Globalgasdemandisexpectedtoremainflatin2023,withhigherdemandinAsiaPacificandtheMiddleEastoffsettingtheexpecteddeclinesinEuropeandNorthAmerica.InAsia,gasdemandisprojectedtoincreasebycloseto3%,withChinaandIndiaasthemaindrivers.GasdemandinChinaisforecasttoincreasebyover6%in2023,supportedbyarecoveryineconomicactivityandpotentiallyhighergasuseinindustry.IntheMiddleEast,gasdemandisforecasttoincreaseby2%,drivenbyIranandSaudiArabia.GasdemandinadvancedeconomiesinEuropeisprojectedtodeclineby5%asrapidlyexpandingrenewablesweighongas-firedgeneration.Afterstronggrowthin2022,gasdemandinNorthAmericaisexpectedtodeclineby2%asaresultoflowergasuseforspaceheating,powergenerationandindustry.

ChinagraduallyrecoversitsappetiteforLNG,although

importsaresettoremainbelowtheir2021levels

China’sLNGimportsdeclinedbyanunprecedented20%in2022,enablinghigherLNGdeliveriestotheEuropeanmarket.

China’sLNGimportgrowthrecoveredtodouble-digitgrowthinMarch2023,supportedbyhigherdomesticgasdemand.The

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

country’sLNGinflowsareexpectedtoincreaseby10-15%comparedwith2022whileremainingbelowtheir2021levels.

LNGbecameeffectivelyanewbaseloadsupplyforEurope,accountingfortwo-thirdoftheregion’simportsandmeetingaroundone-thirdofitsgasdemandthroughthe2022/23winterseason.AfterstronggrowthinQ12023,OECDEurope’sLNGimportsareexpectedtodeclinefortheremainderoftheyearamidstlowerinjectionneedsandacontinueddeclineinEuropeangasconsumption.

Groundsforcautiousoptimism

PressureontheEuropeanandglobalgasmarketshaseasedsincethebeginningof2023duetofavourableweatherconditionsandtimelypolicyactions.Theimprovedoutlookforgasmarketsin2023isnoguaranteeagainstfuturevolatilityandshouldnotbeadistractionfrommeasurestomitigatepotentialrisks.

Globalgassupplyissettoremaintightin2023,andtheglobalbalanceissubjecttoanunusuallywiderangeofuncertainties.

Therisksincludeadverseweatherfactors,suchasadrysummerorcolder-than-usualendoftheyear,loweravailabilityofLNG,andthepossibilityofafurtherdeclineinRussianpipelinegasdeliveriestoEurope.Thesefactorscouldeasilyrenewmarkettensionsandpricevolatility.

Asaresult,thereisacontinuedneedtoreducegasdemandinastructuralmannerthroughimprovedenergyefficiencymeasures,accelerateddeploymentofrenewablesandheatpumps,aswellasbehaviouralchanges.Short-termsoptionstoenhancegassupplyandoptimisetheuseofgasinfrastructureshouldbepromoted,includingviathereductionofmethaneleaksandgasflaring.

E-methane:Agasfitfornetzero?

Beyondtheimmediatesecurityofsupplyconcerns,thereisaclearandurgentneedforpolicymakersandtheprivatesectortopromoteeffectivewaystodecarbonisegassupply.E-methaneisinterchangeablewithnaturalgasandwouldlimittheneedforretrofittingexistingnaturalgasplantsandnetworkswhileenhancingsystemandseasonalflexibility.AspartoftheIEA’sLow-EmissionGasWorkProgramme,thisquarterlyeditionoftheGasMarketReportprovidesanin-depthoverviewofthedevelopmentsrelatedtoe-methane.E-methane’shighproductioncostsrequirefurthertechnologicaldevelopmentandpolicysupport,includingthroughcloserdialoguebetweenfutureproducersandconsumers.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|9

Y-o-ychangeinbcm

Globalgassupplyissettoremaintightin2023

Year-on-yearchangeinglobalnaturalgassupply(2019-2023)

90

60

30

0

-30

-60

-90

2020

2019

202120222023

Russia-pipelineflowstoEuropeRussia-pipelineflowtoChinaLNGsupply

Others-pipelineflowstoEurope

CentralAsia-pipelineflowstoChina

Netchange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonENTSOG(2023),

TransparencyPlatform;

Eurostat(2023),

EnergyStatistics;

GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofPeople’sRepublicofChina(2023),

CustomsStatistics;

ICIS(2023),

ICISLNGEdge;

JODI(2023),

GasWorldDatabase.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|10

bcm

bcm

Globalgasgrowthturnednegativein2022,flatanduncertainfor2023

Changeinglobalnaturalgasdemandpercalendaryear,2020-2023

BreakdownbyregionBreakdownbysector

200

100

0

-100

-200

2019-202020-212021-222022-23

Africa

CentralandSouthAmericaEurope

NorthAmerica

AsiaPacificEurasia

MiddleEastWorld

200

100

0

-100

-200

2019-202020-212021-222022-23

Powergeneration

ResidentialandcommercialTransport

Industry

EnergysectorAllsectors

IEA.CCBY4.0.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|11

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|12

GasdemandincreasedinNorthAmericaduringthewinter,butisexpectedtocontractin2023

Duringthewinterseasonof2022/23theUnitedStatessawanestimated0.6%year-on-year(y-o-y)increaseinitsconsumptionofnaturalgas.AstemperaturesplummetedinDecember,theendoftheyearsawadramaticriseinthedemandfornaturalgasforcommercialandresidentialheating.Thefirstquarterof2023,however,sawasignificantreversal,withmildtemperaturesnearlyreversingtheincreaseindemandoverthepreviousyear’swinterseason.Overall,naturalgasconsumptionsawa5.3%risein2022,drivenbytheuseofnaturalgasforpowergeneration.Thiswasstimulatedbytheneedforcooling,whichcanbeattributedtohightemperaturesduringthesummermonths.

Furthermore,theretirementofcoal-firedpowerplantsandrelativelyhighcoalprices,alongwithlowerthanaveragecoalstocks,causedcoalconsumptionforpowergenerationtodecrease,leadingtoaswitchinfavourofnaturalgasforelectricitygeneration.Thisresultedinnaturalgasaccountingfor38.0%ofthepowermixonaverageduringthewinterperiod,ora3percentagepointincrease

overthepreviouswinter,whilecoalfellto18.4%,adropof

2.5percentagepoints.

Inaddition,abnormallylowtemperatures–especiallyduringthearcticfrontthatsweptacrossthecountryinlateDecembercausingheavyrainandsnow–greatlyaddedtotheriseintheuseofnaturalgasforresidentialandcommercialheating.Instarkcontrast,Januarysawunseasonablymildtemperatures,settingnewrecordsforthewarmestmonth,offsettingthetrend.

Theindustrialsectorexperienceda2.1%decreaseinnaturalgasconsumptionduringwinter2022/23relativetowinter2021/22,albeitatarelativelystablerate.

GasconsumptioninCanadaincreasedbycloseto7%in2022.Bothwholesalecustomers(largeindustryandpowergenerators)andresidentialandcommercialcustomerscontributedtothisgrowth.Theswitchawayfromcoalinthepowergenerationmixhasbeengraduallypushingdemandfornaturalgasupwards.Thewinterseasonstartedwithariseinresidentialandcommercialnaturalgasconsumption(up7.5%y-o-yinQ42022)duetolowerthanaveragetemperatures,butthistrendcouldpotentiallybecounteractedinthefirstquarterof2023astemperatureswere

higherthanaverage.Mexico’sapparentnaturalgasconsumptionremainedstabley-o-yduringtheperiodfromOctober2021toJanuary2022.

NorthAmericangasconsumptionisexpectedtodecreasebyabout2.9%in2023.IntheUnitedStates,slowereconomicgrowthissettodepressgasdemandinindustry,whileanunseasonablymildQ1reducedgasuseintheresidentialandcommercialsectors,weighingontheoutlookforthefullyear.Theeconomicslowdowncoupledwiththestrongexpansionofrenewablesissettoreducethecallongas-firedpowerplants,althoughcontinuedcoal-to-gasswitchingcouldmoderatetheoveralldeclineingasdemandforpowergeneration.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

bcf/d

Y-o-ychange

Powergeneration

Industry

Residentialandcommercial

Totalconsumption

GrowthinUSgasconsumptionduringthepastwinterwassustainedbypowergenerationand

heatingneedsduringcoldweatherinQ4

Monthlynaturalgasconsumption,UnitedStates,

winter2021/22and2022/23

Gasconsumptionbysector,UnitedStates,

winter2022/23relativetowinter2021/22

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

OctNovDecJanFebMar

2021/222022/23Y-o-ychange(%)

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

IEA.CCBY4.0.‘

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonEIA(2023),

NaturalGasConsumption;

NaturalGasWeeklyUpdate

.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|14

GasconsumptionsawalimiteddeclineinCentralandSouthAmericain2022,andisexpected

tostabilisein2023

NaturalgasconsumptionintheCentralandSouthAmericaregionisestimatedtohavefallenbycloseto1.5%in2022,primarilyduetolowerneedforgasforpowergenerationinBrazilafterrecorddroughtsin2021.Itisexpectedtostabilisein2023withalimiteddeclineoflessthan1%ashigherhydroavailability(asoftheendofQ1)furtherreducesgasforpowerneeds,partlycompensatedbylimitedgrowthamongindustrialconsumers.

Argentina’sgasconsumptiondeclinedbyabout2%y-o-yinthefourthquarterof2022afterregisteringa3%increaseinthefirstninemonthsoftheyear,asdemandgrowthfromtheindustrialsectorturnednegativeinthefinalmonthsof2022.Thepowergenerationsector,whichaccountsforcloseto30%oftotalgasconsumption,experiencedan11%declinein2022duetomodestgrowthinelectricitydemandandareboundinhydrogenerationfromthelowlevelsof2021.Thiswaspartlyoffsetbyincreasesfromtheindustrialsector(upby6%)andtheresidentialandcommercialsector(upby3%),whichaccountforaquarteroftotalgasdemandeach.Domesticproductiongrewby3%in2022,supportedbya14%increaseintheVacaMuertashalebasininNeuquénprovince,whichcontributedtoa26%reductioninnaturalgasimports.

ThedeclineingasuseinBrazilfurtheracceleratedinQ42022witha29%y-o-yslide,asgasburnforpowergenerationdroppedby

closeto70%onstronghydrorecovery.Gasconsumptionforthewholeof2022declinedbyanestimated22%y-o-y,draggeddownbyasteep61%dropingasuseforpowergeneration,whiledemandfromindustryandretailcustomersincreasedby7%and5%respectively.Operationaldatashowthathydroelectricityincreasedby4.2TWhy-o-y(up4%)inthefirstquarterof2023againstonly2.6TWh(up2%)fortotalelectricitygeneration,resultinginanestimated6TWhdropingas-firedgeneration(down62%).

GasproductioninTrinidadandTobagoincreasedby4%in2022whileLNGexportsrecoveredby19%y-o-y,leadingtoanestimateddeclineindomesticconsumptionofcloseto3%.Apparentgasconsumptiongrewby10%inCentralAmericaandtheCaribbeanin2022,andLNGimportsalmostdoubledduringtheOctober2022toFebruary2023period,supportedbystrongincreasesinJamaicaandPanama.Bolivia,ChileandPerureporteda10%increaseintheirrespectivegasdemandin2022.Colombiasawitsgasconsumptionincreaseby5%overthesameperiod,althoughearly2023datashowa6%y-o-ydeclineforthefirsttwomonthsoftheyear.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|15

bcm

DeclinesingasdemandinArgentinaandBrazilin2022werealmostbalancedbygrowthin

otherCentralandSouthAmericanmarkets

Monthlynaturalgasconsumption,CentralandSouthAmerica,2021-2022

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

JFMAMJJASOND

2021

JFMAMJJASOND

2022

ArgentinaBrazilVenezuelaTrinidadandTobagoColombiaChilePeruBoliviaOther

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonANP(2023),

BoletimMensaldaProdu??odePetróleoeGásNatural;

BMC(2023),

InformesMensual

es;CentralBankofTrinidadandTobago(2023),

Statistics

;CNE(2023),

GeneraciónbrutaSEN

;ENARGAS(2023),

DatosAbiertos

;ICIS(2023),

ICISLNGEdge

;IEA(2023),

MonthlyGasDataService

;JODI(2023),

GasDatabase

;MME(2023),

BoletimMensaldeAcompanhamentodaIndustriadeGásNatural;

OSINERG(2023),

Reportediariodelaoperacióndelossistemasdetransportedegasnatural.

GasMarketReport,Q2-2023

Gasmarketupdateandshort-termforecast

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|16

Electricitygeneration(TWh)

LNGimports(bcm)

GasuseforpowergenerationremainslowinBrazilinQ12023onstronghydroavailabilit