空客全球市場展望

GlobalMarketForecast2023Toulouse

-13June2023Air

transport

brings

the

world’s

population

centres

togetherSource:CIESIN,SEDAC,

AirbusGMFWorld’s

population

by

densityParis

-

BeijingNew

York

-

London10

hoursAstana

-

Beijing7

hoursLos

Angeles

-

New

York5

hours5

hoursTokyo

-

Los

AngelesCasablanca

-

Jeddah10

hours6

hoursMauritius

-

DelhiBogota

-

Sao

Paulo8

hours6

hoursPerth

-

Sydney4

hours2AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Air

transport

has

given

us

simpler

and

faster

connectionsSource:BOAC

Timetable1957,

AirbusGMFLondonIstanbul195220256

weeks

tripKarachi~20

hoursKolkataSingaporeDarwinSydney19575

days

trip3AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Air

transport

connects

more

countries

than

ever,

facilitating

exchangesSource:OAG(Septemberdata),

AirbusGMFNew

additional

country

pairs

served

by

a

non

stop

flight

between

1999-2019Newcountrypairsthathavebeencreatedbetween1999-2019:1,020

newworldwide

countrypairs(+33%)469intra-regional

(+30%)551inter-continental

(+36%)4AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Post-Covid

capacity

has

recovered

quickly

as

restrictions

were

liftedSourceOAG,

AirbusGMFASKs

compared

to

2019

levelEurope

&

CIS101%90%North

America100%PRC126%102%

101%100%100%Middle

East41%Dom.Intl.112%104%Asia/Pacific(excl.

PRC)101%100%Dom.Intl.Dom.Intl.WorldAfrica100%81%108%112%104%Latin

AmericaDom.Intl.100%89%100%114%92%Dom.Intl.100%Dom.Intl.Dom.Intl.DomesticInternationalMay2023(Dom.)May2023(Intl.)5AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Air

transport

is

a

major

contributor

to

GDP

and

EmploymentSource:

ATAG’s

AviationBenefitsBeyondBorders,September2020,OxfordEconomics,

AirbusGMF*Employmentfiguresincludedirect,indirect,inducedandtourismcatalyticjobsEurope

&

CISNorth

America4.4%5.0%8.7M13.5MMiddle

East7.6%Asia/Pacific3.1%3.4MAfricaWorld46.7MLatin

America2.7%7.7M4.1%

GDP$3.5

trillion3.5%7.7M87.7M

jobsContributionofairtransporttoregionalGDP

2018ContributionofairtransporttoEmployment*20186AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Air

transport

is

tightly

linked

to

economic

development

and

geographySource:IHSMarkit,SabreGDD,

AirbusGMF2019

yearly

trips

per

capita

(bubblesizeproportionaltocountrypopulation)GDP

per

capita

(PurchasingPowerParity$-2015)7AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Efficiency

improvement

has

enabled

democratisation

of

air

travelCO

emissions

per

RPK

halved

through

technology

and

operational

improvements2Source:IATA,

ICAO,

Airbus,EDGARCO

emissions,

AirbusGMF2*Note:commercialairtransportdirectshareoftotalanthropogenicCO

fossilemissions(excludinglandusechange)2Index

base

100

in

1990RPKs4.5

billion4.8%peryearpassengers

carriedin

2019Fuel

consumption2.1%peryearFuel

burn

per

RPK~90

gCO

per2-2.6%peryearpassenger

kilometrein

2019Share

CO

emissions

(%)2Air

transport

shareof

CO

emissions*220198AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023GMF23

is

an

exploratory

scenarioSource:

AirbusGMFGMF

2023STEPS-StatedPoliciesScenarioAPS-

AnnouncedPledgesScenarioFromthecurrentstateofknowledgeEXPLORATORY

(forecast)Now2050NORMATIVE

(backcast)FromthedefinedtargetSustainableDevelopmentScenario-SDSNetZeroEmission-NZE9AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Underlying

outlook

for

GDP,

trade

and

population

growthSource:IHSMarkit,

AirbusGMF*Householdswithyearlyincomebetween$20,000and$150,000atPPP

inconstant2015pricesWorldGDPWorldpopulationUrbanisation+2.5%+1.5

bn+1.6

bnCAGR2019-2042from2019to2042from2019to2042WorldtradeMiddleClass*+2.9%+1.9

bnCAGR2019-2042from2019to204210AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Sensitivities

approach

to

deal

with

future

uncertaintiesSource:

AirbusGMFSensitivity

on

key

driversNumber

of

traffic

forecast

scenariosGDP

forecastPossible

headwinds:Possible

tailwinds:Morestableworldorder,furtherliberalisation,etc…Environmentalregulations,energyavailability,geopoliticalinstabilityetc…SAF:penetration,emissionreductionfactorandpricesMarket-BasedMeasures:scopeandpricesFuelefficiencyTraffic

growth

scenario

median

at3.6%

CAGRPassengertraffic2019-2042CAGR11AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Modest

growth

in

mature

flows…Source:

AirbusGMFTop

20

traffic

flows

(RPK)CAGR

2019-2042

(%)Annual

RPK

(billions)12AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023…and

stronger

growth

in

Asia

and

Middle

East,

led

by

India

and

PRCSource:

AirbusGMFTop

20

traffic

flows

(RPK)CAGR

2019-2042

(%)Annual

RPK

(billions)13AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Demand

for

40,850

new

passenger

&

freighter

aircraftSource:

AirbusGMFNotes:Passengeraircraftabove100seats&freighterswithapayloadabove10tNumber

of

aircraft?

22,880

aircraft

in-servicebeginning

of

2020:–

25%willstayin-service(including2020-22Growdeliveries)New

deliveries–

75%willbereplaced?

40,850

new

deliveries2023-2042:Replace–

58%forgrowth–

42%forreplacementStay(incl.

2020-22

deliveries)14AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Demand

for

40,850

new

passenger

&

freighter

aircraft

over

2023-2042Source:

AirbusGMFNote:Demandforpassengeraircraftabove100seats&freighterswithapayloadabove10tTypically

Single-AisleTypically

Widebody32,630

aircraft8,220

aircraft

(inc.920new-builtfreighters)20%

shareoftotalnewdeliveries80%

shareoftotalnewdeliveries15AirbusGlobalMarketForecast202340,850

new

deliveries

between

2023

and

2042Source

AirbusGMFNotes:Passengeraircraft(≥100seats)&Freighters(≥10tonspayload)|Figuresroundedtonearest10Europe

&

CISNorth

AmericaPRCMiddle

EastAsia/Pacific(excl.

PRC)AfricaLatin

AmericaTypicallySingle

AisleTypicallyWidebody16AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Express

air

cargo

growth

will

outpace

General

air

cargoSource:IHSMarkit,Seabury,IATA,

AirbusGMFWorld

air

cargo

traffic

+3.2%

CAGR

2019-20422042Express2019boostedbye-commerce+4.9%CAGR2019-2042ExpressExpress25%17%250

billionFTK520

billionFTKGeneral

cargoGeneral

83%dominatesthemarketGeneral

75%+2.7%CAGR2019-204217AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023World

freighter

fleet

in

service

will

reach

3,230

aircraft

by

2042Source:

AirbusGMFNote:Freighterswithapayloadabove10tNumber

of

freighter

aircraft3,230New-buildGrowConversionsReplaceStay(incl.

2020-2022

deliveries)18AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Global

demand

for

2,510

freighters,

over

2023-2042Source:

AirbusGMFNote:Freighterswithapayloadabove10tSingle-Aisle(10t

-

40t)Mid-size

Widebody(40t

-

80t)Large

Widebody(>

80t)1,020

aircraft890

aircraft600

aircraft19AirbusGlobalMarketForecast2023Airlines

require

the

latest,

most

efficient

and

lowest-emission

aircraftSource:Cirium,

AirbusGMFPassengeraircraftabove100seats–

Year

end|Newgeneration:

A220,

A320neoFam.,

A330neo,

A350,Emb-E2,737Max,787%

of

in-service

fleet

by

aircraft

generationFleet

modernisation:A

strategic

hedge

against

high

energy

costs25%75%

of

fleet

not

yet

latest

generation5%13%201720192022Airbus

product

line

delivers

20

-

40%

fuel

burn

reductionEndofMay2023Backlog:432aircraftBacklog:5,983aircraftBacklog:39aircraftBacklog:Backlog:187aircraft520aircraftSingle-AisleFreighterWidebodyAirbus

is

leading

aviation

decarbonisationActingonallleversSource:

AirbusGMF2050+TodayFleet

renewal

/

25%

less

CO2Continuousincremental

improvementLatest

generation

aircraftOperations→

Already25%

CO

reductioncomparedto

previousgenerationaircraft2Services

portfolioExpanding

upgrades/

performance&

trajectoryoptimisation→

improvingaircraftoperationalefficiency

→

Albatross

→

Fello’FlyUpto50%

SAF

capabilityMovingfrom

50

to

100%

capability

by

2030SustainableAviation

FuelDisruptive

technologyDeveloping

disruptive

aerodynamics/

airframe/

propulsion/

energy→

eXtraPerformanceWing/

ZEROeSupporting

CORSIA

&

carbon

removalsCO

Offsetting

&

Capture2→

DACCS

scale-upandadvocacy22Latest

generation

aircraft●

Up

to

25%

lower

unit

fuel

and

CO

vs.2previousgeneration-acrosstheentireAirbusFamily●

Only25%*ofpassengerin-service?eetarelatestgenerationaircraft●

A350Fwillbethe?rstlatestgenerationfreighteronthemarket*Passengeraircraftabove100seats–End2022/Newgeneration:

A220,

A320neoFam.,

A330neo,

A350,Emb-E2,737Max,787Operations

&

Infrastructures●

Increased

e?ciency

of

the

current

?eet,by

up

to

10%,

with

a

range

of

solutions●

Upgradedaircraftsystems●

Optimized?ighttrajectories●

Decarbonisedon-groundoperations●

AirTra?c

ManagementSustainable

Aviation

Fuels●

Flying

with

100%

SAF

reduces

lifecycleCO

emissions

by

around

80%2●

AllAirbusaircraft

are

alreadycerti?edto

50%,certi?cationupto

100%byendofdecade●

Industrialuptakeneededto

increaseSAF’savailability●

Coalitionsandpartnershipssignedto

fosterproductionofSAFDisruptive

technologies●

Development,

testing

and

maturity-baseddeployment

of

advanced

technologies●

Ambitionto

bringazero

emissionaircraft

to

themarketby2035●

Hydrogenasafuelforturbines,forelectricmotorsviafuelcellsandto

produceSAF●

Developing

advanced

solutions

for

hydrogenor

kerosene

fuelled

aircraft

(aerodynamics/airframe/propulsion/hybridization)Carbon

removal

optionsNature-based

solutionsPoint-Source

Carbon

CaptureDirect

Air

Carbon

Capture●

Widelyusedasoffsets

forcompensationinvoluntaryandregulatedmarkets●

Emergingtechnology●

Emergingtechnology●

EnablescreditsfromCO2

storageandCO2

asfeedstockforsyntheticfuels●

Competeswithotherindustries●

Necessaryasa

transitionsolutiontodevelopsyntheticfuelsatscale●

Carboncreditsfrom

storagecanonlybeusedonvoluntarymarketsorlocalcarbonmarketsTakeawaysSource:

AirbusGMF3.6%3.2%Passenger

Traffic2019-2042CAGRFreight

Traffic2019-2042CAGRFleet

in

servicebeginning

of

202022,880aircraft46,560

aircraft40,8