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Oilandgassecurityduringtheenergytransition
APERCWorksho
ChrisDoleman,SeniorResearcher,APERC
Emergingtrends
2
50
40
30
20
10
0
Energysecurityisnowatthecenterofenergypolicydiscussions
Monthlyfossilfuelpricesonanenergyequivalentbasis,1997to2022(USDperMMBtu)
Jan-1997Sep-1999May-2002Jan-2005Sep-2007May-2010Jan-2013Sep-2015May-2018Jan-2021
AsianLNGpriceNewcastleCoalBrentoil
Source:IMF,JOGMEC,EIA,APERCanalysis
?Pandemicrecoveryispromptingareboundinenergydemand
?Energysupplygrowthisconstrainedbyseveralcombiningfactors
?Russia-Ukrainianwarisreorganizingenergysupplychains
3
SevereweatherisexacerbatingAPEC’senergysecuritychallenges
Source:MISO
?Extremetemperatureselevatedemandprofileswhilechallengingfuelsupplyavailabilityandreliability
?Stormsurgesdisruptingjust-in-timedeliveries,damaginginfrastructure
?Droughtsreducingfuelandcoolantavailability
4
Governmentsareputtingenergysecurityintotheirownhands
?Prioritisationofdomesticenergyendowmentsfordomesticuse
?Energyexportbans:Indonesia’smonth-longcoalexportban(January2022)
?Australiaconsideringgasreservation
?Chinaincreasingcoalproductivecapacitytorelylessonimports
?Securingtheupstreamthroughdirectinvestments
?JapaninvestinginLNGprojects,andnaturalgassupplyintheUS
?Governmentsarerethinkingtheirlong-termenergyplanstoreducerelianceonoilandgasimports
?VietNamshiftinglong-termpowermixawayfromoil,gasandcoalandtowardsrenewables
5
Governmentsareinterveninginenergymarketstoimproveaffordability
SingaporeLNGstoragecapacity(millionm3)
MonthlyIndonesiangasprice-withcontrolsversusspotLNGprices,USDperMMBtu,January2020toMay2022
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22
SpotLNGOriginalPriceContractGaspolicyfixedprice
Source:GIIGNL,Platts,EMA,APERCAnalysisSource:MEMR,IMF,APERCAnalysis
?GovernmentsparticipateinorguideLNGsupplyprocurement;Singaporeischarteringstand-byFSU,FSRUcapacity
?Moreregulationtowholesaleandretailelectricitymarkets
?Pricecapsforwholesalenaturalgasandcoal(tointurnreducepowerprices)inAustralia
?RegulatorsmandatingtheweatherproofingofenergysupplychainsintheUS(withquestionableeffectiveness)
?SPRreleasestoputaceilingoncrudeprices
?Subsidies
6
Long-termLNGcontractsareinsulatingsomefromhighspotprices
MonthlycommoditypricesfacingLNGimporters(USDperMMBtu),2020to2022
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-2020May-2020Sep-2020Jan-2021May-2021Sep-2021Jan-2022May-2022Sep-2022
LNGoilindex10to15%AsianLNGspotLNGHHindex
Source:JOGMEC,IMF,EIA,APERCanalysis
?Long-termcontractsareinsulatingincumbentimportersfromelevated,volatilespotprices
?China’sshort-termcontractflexibility,lowerdemandenabledittobalanceglobalLNGmarketsin2022
7
Short-termfuelswitchingawayfromgasisdifficultinpractice
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
ElectricityfuelinselectAPECLNGimportingeconomies.2021and2022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
China
Japan
Mexico
ChineseTaipei
Thailand
Singapore
Korea
Wind
Solar
OtherRenewables
OtherFossil
Nuclear
NetImports
Hydro
Gas
Bioenergy
Coal
Source:EMBER
?Technologicalcapacitylimitscurrentfuelswitching
?Sophistication,redundancyandreplacementincreasesfuelswitchingability,butdonotemergeovernight
?Governmentpolicycanalsoplayaroleinlimitingfuelswitching(forexample,coal-to-gasswitchingtargets)
8
Bindingsupplyconstraintssuggestareturntotheboom-bustoilcycle
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Monthlyproducerpriceindexofoilandgasserviceinputs,2019to2022,100=Jan2019
Jan-2019Jun-2019Nov-2019Apr-2020Sep-2020Feb-2021Jul-2021Dec-2021May-2022Oct-2022
CementSteelpipeandtubeIndustrialsand
Source:BLS
?Capitaldiscipline,laborshortages,inputconstraintslimitingsupplygrowth,shiftingthemarginalsupplieroutofAPEC
?Adecadeofdemandgrowthandinelasticsupplycouldspellthereturnoftheboom-bustoilcycle
9
Infrastructureconstraintscouldlimitsupplygrowth
250
200
150
100
50
0
LNGexportcapacitypotentialintheUS,2016to2030,Mtpa
201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
Proposed
Under
construction
Source:EIA
?GrowinginterestinUSLNGexportsasEuropeshiftsawayfromRussianpipelineexports
?However,infrastructureandcapitalconstraintscouldlimitthesupplytothesenewLNGfacilities
10
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Refineryproductconstraintscreatingavailability,affordabilityconcerns
China’sannualoilproductexportsandquotas,2019to2022(kt)
2020
2021
2022
2019
■Oilproductexports(lessfueloil)一Exportquotas
Source:Platts,Reuters,EGEDA,APERCAnalysis
?China’sexportquotascurbingsupply
?PhasedownofRussianoilproductexports
?Capacityreductionsduetoretirements,unexpecteddamagesandbioconversions
11
DomesticImported
201020112012201320142016201720182019
Biodiesel
201020112012201320142016201720182019
Bioethanol
Biofuelmandatesarealoneinsufficientforimprovingenergysecurity
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
SupplyofbiofuelforblendinginPeru(thousandbarrels)
Source:EGEDA,Reuters,Platts
?Mandatesmaybesubstitutingoilsecurityconcernswithbiofuelsecurityconcerns
12
Emergencyresponseprogramsareeffectiveatensuringenergysecurity
TEPCOforecastedandpeakdemand,March22to232022,(MW)
50000
40000
30000/以
l
20000
22/03/20220:00
22/03/20228:00
22/03/202216:00
23/03/20220:00
23/03/20228:00
23/03/2022
16:00
HourlypeakdemandForecastedpeak
Source:TEPCO,GridMonitor,APERCanalysis
?Emergencyresponsemeasuresareveryeffectiveatensuringenergysecurity,includinggridreliability
?Japan’seffectiveemergencyresponsecouldbeablueprintforotherstoimitateatthegasandelectricretaillevel
13
Short-termactionsareimprovingenergysecurity,butthesehavelimits
?Plentyofexamplesofshort-termactionsthroughputAPECthatarehelpingtheregionnavigateacuteoilandgassupplydisruptions
?Households,businesses,suppliers,andgovernmentsarecollectivelymitigatingtheeconomicimpacts
?However,constraintscouldlimittheseshort-termresponsesgoingforward
14
Oilandgasdemandwilllikelyremainrobustthisdecade
APECtotalprimaryenergysupplybyfuelinCNoftheAPECOutlook8thEd.2020and2030(PJ)`
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
-50000
Otherfuels
Hydrogen
Electricity
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
20202030
Source:APERC
?InCN,gassupplyrequirementswillgrowatenth,oilsupplyfallslightly
?Despitehigherproduction,oilandgasimportdependencewillremainelevatedandevengrowinSEA
?SupplydisruptionswillcontinuetoposearisktosomeAPECeconomies
15
Recommendationstoimproveenergysecurityduringthisenergytransition
16
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Actionstoimproveenergysecurityforoilandgasusers
Demand
reductionviaair-sourceheat
pumpadoptioninselectAPECeconomies(bcm)
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2021
US
Canada
Source:OEE(2022a,2022b,2022c),Nature,CarbonBrief,APERCanalysis
?Investinelectrification,efficiencytoreduceimportdependence
?Considerinvestmentsinredundancy,sophisticationandreplacement
?Developshort-termdemandresponseprogramsattheretaillevel
?Diversifylong-termenergyandpowerplans
17
Actionstoincreaseoilandgassupply
USweeklyfracfleetcount
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023
Source:PrimaryVision
?Alleviateshaleservicebottlenecks:investinproductivecapacity,eliminatetariffsandresearchlaborbottlenecks
?Simplifythepermittingprocessandfrontloadinvestmentsinmethane,flaringandemissionreductions
?CommittoreplenishingSPRstoragevolumestoreducedemand-sideuncertaintyduringthetransition
?Winterisetheentiregassupplychainofproducer-exporters
18
0
ActionstoincreaseLNGsupply,mitigatedisruptions
ActiveglobalLNGcarrierfleet,segmentedbyage,propulsiontypeandcontainmenttype
300
250
200
150
100
50
Under1010to1920to2930andover
Moss
Under1010to1920to2930andover
Membrane
SteamSteamreheatDFDETFDEX-DFME-GISSDR
Source:IGU,GIIGNL,APERCanalysis
?Signlong-termcontracts,investinupstreamLNGsupplychain,andpoolcollectivelybids
?EnableLNGreloadingatallimportterminals
?ExpandLNGstoragetanks
?InvestintheresiliencyoftheLNGshippingsupplychains
19
Actionstoincreaseoilproductandliquidssupply
USoperablerefinerycapacity(kb/d)
20000
18000____________________________________________________
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
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