版權(quán)說明：本文檔由用戶提供并上傳，收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方，若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán)，請進(jìn)行舉報或認(rèn)領(lǐng)
文檔簡介
Oilandgassecurityduringtheenergytransition
APERCWorksho
ChrisDoleman,SeniorResearcher,APERC
Emergingtrends
2
50
40
30
20
10
0
Energysecurityisnowatthecenterofenergypolicydiscussions
Monthlyfossilfuelpricesonanenergyequivalentbasis,1997to2022(USDperMMBtu)
Jan-1997Sep-1999May-2002Jan-2005Sep-2007May-2010Jan-2013Sep-2015May-2018Jan-2021
AsianLNGpriceNewcastleCoalBrentoil
Source:IMF,JOGMEC,EIA,APERCanalysis
?Pandemicrecoveryispromptingareboundinenergydemand
?Energysupplygrowthisconstrainedbyseveralcombiningfactors
?Russia-Ukrainianwarisreorganizingenergysupplychains
3
SevereweatherisexacerbatingAPEC’senergysecuritychallenges
Source:MISO
?Extremetemperatureselevatedemandprofileswhilechallengingfuelsupplyavailabilityandreliability
?Stormsurgesdisruptingjust-in-timedeliveries,damaginginfrastructure
?Droughtsreducingfuelandcoolantavailability
4
Governmentsareputtingenergysecurityintotheirownhands
?Prioritisationofdomesticenergyendowmentsfordomesticuse
?Energyexportbans:Indonesia’smonth-longcoalexportban(January2022)
?Australiaconsideringgasreservation
?Chinaincreasingcoalproductivecapacitytorelylessonimports
?Securingtheupstreamthroughdirectinvestments
?JapaninvestinginLNGprojects,andnaturalgassupplyintheUS
?Governmentsarerethinkingtheirlong-termenergyplanstoreducerelianceonoilandgasimports
?VietNamshiftinglong-termpowermixawayfromoil,gasandcoalandtowardsrenewables
5
Governmentsareinterveninginenergymarketstoimproveaffordability
SingaporeLNGstoragecapacity(millionm3)
MonthlyIndonesiangasprice-withcontrolsversusspotLNGprices,USDperMMBtu,January2020toMay2022
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22
SpotLNGOriginalPriceContractGaspolicyfixedprice
Source:GIIGNL,Platts,EMA,APERCAnalysisSource:MEMR,IMF,APERCAnalysis
?GovernmentsparticipateinorguideLNGsupplyprocurement;Singaporeischarteringstand-byFSU,FSRUcapacity
?Moreregulationtowholesaleandretailelectricitymarkets
?Pricecapsforwholesalenaturalgasandcoal(tointurnreducepowerprices)inAustralia
?RegulatorsmandatingtheweatherproofingofenergysupplychainsintheUS(withquestionableeffectiveness)
?SPRreleasestoputaceilingoncrudeprices
?Subsidies
6
Long-termLNGcontractsareinsulatingsomefromhighspotprices
MonthlycommoditypricesfacingLNGimporters(USDperMMBtu),2020to2022
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-2020May-2020Sep-2020Jan-2021May-2021Sep-2021Jan-2022May-2022Sep-2022
LNGoilindex10to15%AsianLNGspotLNGHHindex
Source:JOGMEC,IMF,EIA,APERCanalysis
?Long-termcontractsareinsulatingincumbentimportersfromelevated,volatilespotprices
?China’sshort-termcontractflexibility,lowerdemandenabledittobalanceglobalLNGmarketsin2022
7
Short-termfuelswitchingawayfromgasisdifficultinpractice
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
ElectricityfuelinselectAPECLNGimportingeconomies.2021and2022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
20212022
China
Japan
Mexico
ChineseTaipei
Thailand
Singapore
Korea
Wind
Solar
OtherRenewables
OtherFossil
Nuclear
NetImports
Hydro
Gas
Bioenergy
Coal
Source:EMBER
?Technologicalcapacitylimitscurrentfuelswitching
?Sophistication,redundancyandreplacementincreasesfuelswitchingability,butdonotemergeovernight
?Governmentpolicycanalsoplayaroleinlimitingfuelswitching(forexample,coal-to-gasswitchingtargets)
8
Bindingsupplyconstraintssuggestareturntotheboom-bustoilcycle
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Monthlyproducerpriceindexofoilandgasserviceinputs,2019to2022,100=Jan2019
Jan-2019Jun-2019Nov-2019Apr-2020Sep-2020Feb-2021Jul-2021Dec-2021May-2022Oct-2022
CementSteelpipeandtubeIndustrialsand
Source:BLS
?Capitaldiscipline,laborshortages,inputconstraintslimitingsupplygrowth,shiftingthemarginalsupplieroutofAPEC
?Adecadeofdemandgrowthandinelasticsupplycouldspellthereturnoftheboom-bustoilcycle
9
Infrastructureconstraintscouldlimitsupplygrowth
250
200
150
100
50
0
LNGexportcapacitypotentialintheUS,2016to2030,Mtpa
201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
Proposed
Under
construction
Source:EIA
?GrowinginterestinUSLNGexportsasEuropeshiftsawayfromRussianpipelineexports
?However,infrastructureandcapitalconstraintscouldlimitthesupplytothesenewLNGfacilities
10
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Refineryproductconstraintscreatingavailability,affordabilityconcerns
China’sannualoilproductexportsandquotas,2019to2022(kt)
2020
2021
2022
2019
■Oilproductexports(lessfueloil)一Exportquotas
Source:Platts,Reuters,EGEDA,APERCAnalysis
?China’sexportquotascurbingsupply
?PhasedownofRussianoilproductexports
?Capacityreductionsduetoretirements,unexpecteddamagesandbioconversions
11
DomesticImported
201020112012201320142016201720182019
Biodiesel
201020112012201320142016201720182019
Bioethanol
Biofuelmandatesarealoneinsufficientforimprovingenergysecurity
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
SupplyofbiofuelforblendinginPeru(thousandbarrels)
Source:EGEDA,Reuters,Platts
?Mandatesmaybesubstitutingoilsecurityconcernswithbiofuelsecurityconcerns
12
Emergencyresponseprogramsareeffectiveatensuringenergysecurity
TEPCOforecastedandpeakdemand,March22to232022,(MW)
50000
40000
30000/以
l
20000
22/03/20220:00
22/03/20228:00
22/03/202216:00
23/03/20220:00
23/03/20228:00
23/03/2022
16:00
HourlypeakdemandForecastedpeak
Source:TEPCO,GridMonitor,APERCanalysis
?Emergencyresponsemeasuresareveryeffectiveatensuringenergysecurity,includinggridreliability
?Japan’seffectiveemergencyresponsecouldbeablueprintforotherstoimitateatthegasandelectricretaillevel
13
Short-termactionsareimprovingenergysecurity,butthesehavelimits
?Plentyofexamplesofshort-termactionsthroughputAPECthatarehelpingtheregionnavigateacuteoilandgassupplydisruptions
?Households,businesses,suppliers,andgovernmentsarecollectivelymitigatingtheeconomicimpacts
?However,constraintscouldlimittheseshort-termresponsesgoingforward
14
Oilandgasdemandwilllikelyremainrobustthisdecade
APECtotalprimaryenergysupplybyfuelinCNoftheAPECOutlook8thEd.2020and2030(PJ)`
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
-50000
Otherfuels
Hydrogen
Electricity
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
20202030
Source:APERC
?InCN,gassupplyrequirementswillgrowatenth,oilsupplyfallslightly
?Despitehigherproduction,oilandgasimportdependencewillremainelevatedandevengrowinSEA
?SupplydisruptionswillcontinuetoposearisktosomeAPECeconomies
15
Recommendationstoimproveenergysecurityduringthisenergytransition
16
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Actionstoimproveenergysecurityforoilandgasusers
Demand
reductionviaair-sourceheat
pumpadoptioninselectAPECeconomies(bcm)
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2021
US
Canada
Source:OEE(2022a,2022b,2022c),Nature,CarbonBrief,APERCanalysis
?Investinelectrification,efficiencytoreduceimportdependence
?Considerinvestmentsinredundancy,sophisticationandreplacement
?Developshort-termdemandresponseprogramsattheretaillevel
?Diversifylong-termenergyandpowerplans
17
Actionstoincreaseoilandgassupply
USweeklyfracfleetcount
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023
Source:PrimaryVision
?Alleviateshaleservicebottlenecks:investinproductivecapacity,eliminatetariffsandresearchlaborbottlenecks
?Simplifythepermittingprocessandfrontloadinvestmentsinmethane,flaringandemissionreductions
?CommittoreplenishingSPRstoragevolumestoreducedemand-sideuncertaintyduringthetransition
?Winterisetheentiregassupplychainofproducer-exporters
18
0
ActionstoincreaseLNGsupply,mitigatedisruptions
ActiveglobalLNGcarrierfleet,segmentedbyage,propulsiontypeandcontainmenttype
300
250
200
150
100
50
Under1010to1920to2930andover
Moss
Under1010to1920to2930andover
Membrane
SteamSteamreheatDFDETFDEX-DFME-GISSDR
Source:IGU,GIIGNL,APERCanalysis
?Signlong-termcontracts,investinupstreamLNGsupplychain,andpoolcollectivelybids
?EnableLNGreloadingatallimportterminals
?ExpandLNGstoragetanks
?InvestintheresiliencyoftheLNGshippingsupplychains
19
Actionstoincreaseoilproductandliquidssupply
USoperablerefinerycapacity(kb/d)
20000
18000____________________________________________________
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網(wǎng)頁內(nèi)容里面會有圖紙預(yù)覽，若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲空間，僅對用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理，對用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容，請與我們聯(lián)系，我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 2024年八年級物理下冊 第7章 第2節(jié) 彈力說課稿 （新版）新人教版
- 2025最簡單采購合同協(xié)議樣本
- 2024-2025學(xué)年高中化學(xué) 第1章 有機(jī)化合物的結(jié)構(gòu)與性質(zhì) 烴 1.1.1 有機(jī)化學(xué)的發(fā)展 有機(jī)化合物的分類說課稿 魯科版選修5
- 2025如何防范國際貿(mào)易合同中的風(fēng)險店鋪轉(zhuǎn)讓合同協(xié)議書
- 農(nóng)村電商 合同范例
- 包裝食品采購合同范例
- Unit 1 My school 單元整體分析（說課稿）-2023-2024學(xué)年人教PEP版英語四年級下冊
- 2024-2025學(xué)年高中歷史 專題九 戊戌變法 一 醞釀中的變革（2）教學(xué)說課稿 人民版選修1
- 13 導(dǎo)體和絕緣體 說課稿-2024-2025學(xué)年科學(xué)四年級上冊蘇教版001
- JN造船廠合同管理改進(jìn)研究
- 人教版小學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)（2024）一年級下冊第五單元100以內(nèi)的筆算加、減法綜合素養(yǎng)測評 B卷（含答案）
- 2024-2025學(xué)年北京市豐臺區(qū)高三語文上學(xué)期期末試卷及答案解析
- 開封市第一屆職業(yè)技能大賽健康照護(hù)項(xiàng)目技術(shù)文件（國賽）
- 公路電子收費(fèi)系統(tǒng)安裝合同范本
- 醫(yī)院培訓(xùn)課件：《傷口評估與測量》
- 2021年全國高考物理真題試卷及解析(全國已卷)
- 期末試卷（試題）-2024-2025學(xué)年四年級上冊數(shù)學(xué)滬教版
- 綜合實(shí)踐項(xiàng)目 制作水族箱飼養(yǎng)淡水魚 教學(xué)設(shè)計(jì)-2024-2025學(xué)年魯科版生物六年級上冊
- 安徽省2024年高考語文模擬試卷及答案5
- 關(guān)于餐飲合同范本
- CHT 4019-2016 城市政務(wù)電子地圖技術(shù)規(guī)范（正式版）
評論
0/150
提交評論