介紹國際金融ch01

INTERNATIONALMONETARYAND

FINANCIALECONOMICS

ThirdEdition

JosephP.DanielsDavidD.VanHoose

Chapter1

KeepingUpwithaChangingWorld

TradeFlows,CapitalFlows,andtheBalanceofPayments

Copyright?South-Western,adivisionofThomsonLearning.Allrightsreserved.

InternationalEconomicIntegration

Internationaleconomicintegrationreferstotheextentandstrengthofreal-sectorandfinancial-sectorlinkagesamongnationaleconomies.

RealSector:Thesectoroftheeconomyengagedintheproductionandsaleofgoodsandservices.

FinancialSector:Thesectoroftheeconomywhereindividualstradeinfinancialassets.

Thougheconomiststendtomeasureactivityinthesetwosectorsseparately,animportantpointofthischapteristoshowthattheyarelinked.

2

ImportanceoftheGlobalMarketforGoodsandServices

Overthelast35years,thevolumeofworldtradeingoodsandserviceshasgrownbyalmost6percentannually.

Thecumulativeeffectofthisgrowthismorethanafive-foldincreaseinworldtrade.

Asmeasuredbytheshareofoverallreal-sectoractivity,worldtradeingoodsandserviceshasbecomemoreimportanttoadvancedanddevelopingeconomiesalike.

3

12

10

–2

–4

70727476788082848688909294969800020406

Year

AnnualPercentageChange

GrowthofWorldExports

Duringthepastthirtyyears,worldtradeingoodsandserviceshasexhibitedpositivegrowthratesforallbuttwoyears.

SOURCE:InternationalMonetaryFund,EconomicOutlook,andauthors’

estimates. 4

Japan

1970

2004

IndiaUnitedStates

AustraliaFranceSwitzerland

ChileCanadaThailand

Malaysia

50

100

150

200

250

Percent

SelectedNation’sTrade

Theglobalmarketforgoodsandserviceshasbecomemoreimportantforindividualnations.Thepercentageshownreflectseachnation’stradeasashareofitsoveralleconomicactivity.

SOURCE:InternationalMonetaryFund,InternationalFinancialStatistics,variousissues,andauthors’estimates.

5

GrowthofTrade

andForeignExchangeTransactions

FOREIGNEXCHANGETURNOVERANDWORLDEXPORTS

ForeignExchangeTurnover

($trillion)

WorldExportsofGoods($trillion)

Ratio

1979

$17.5

$1.5

12:1

1986

75.0

2.0

38:1

1989

190.0

3.1

61:1

1992

252.0

4.7

54:1

1995

297.5

5.0

60:1

1998

372.5

5.4

69:1

2001

300.0

6.6

45:1

2004

367.2

7.0

52:5

SOURCES:Held,David,AnthonyMcGrew,DavidGoldblattandJonathanPerraton,GlobalTransformations,p.209;BankforInternationalSettlements,CentralBankSurveyofForeignExchange

andDerivativesMarketActivity,1998,p.5;InternationalMonetaryFund,WorldEconomicOutlook,1998,

p.200,andauthors’estimates.

6

Cross-BorderTransactioninBondsandEquities

$Billions

InGermany,theUnitedStates,andtheUnitedKingdom,internationaltransactionsinbondsandequitieshavegrownbymorethan3,000percent,1000

percent,and700percentrespectively.

7

BalanceofPaymentsAccounting

Tounderstandhoweconomistsmeasureinternationaltransactionsintherealandfinancialsectorsofaneconomy,andhowthesesectorsarelinked,weturntothebalanceofpayments(BOP)accountingsystem.

AsystemofaccountswhichisasubsetoftheNationalIncomeandProductionAccounts.

Adouble-entrysystem.

DebitEntries:Transactionsthatgenerateapaymentoutflow(e.g.,import).

CreditEntries:Transactionsthatgenerateapaymentinflow(e.g.,export).

8

BalanceofPayments

Thecurrentaccountisthebroadestmeasureofanation’srealsectortrade.

Includes:

Goods

Services

IncomeReceiptsandPayments

UnilateralTransfers

9

CurrentAccount

Goods:Exportsandimportsoftangibleitems.

Services:Exportsandimportsofservices,forexample:

Typicalbusinessservicessuchasbankingandfinancialservices,insurance,andconsulting.

Tourism

10

CurrentAccount

IncomeReceipts:Includesitemssuchas

InvestmentincomeonUS-ownedassetsabroad.

ReceiptsofincomeonUSdirectinvestmentabroad.

Governmentincomereceipts

IncomePayments:Includesitemssuchas

Investmentincomeonforeign-ownedassetsintheUnitedStates.

PaymentsofincomeonforeigndirectinvestmentintheUnitedStates

USGovernmentincomepayments

11

CurrentAccount

UnilateralTransfers:Includesitemssuchas:

Governmentgrantsabroad

Privateremittances

Privategrantsabroad

Thecurrentaccountbalanceisthesumofthedebitandcreditentriesintheaccountsjustdescribed.

Acurrentaccountdeficitoccurswhenthesumofthedebitentriesexceedsthesumofthecreditentries.Acurrentaccountsurplusoccurswhenthesumofthecreditentriesexceedsthesumofthedebitentries.

12

USCurrentAccount(2003)

Exports

Millions

1,314,888

Goods

713,122

Services

307,381

IncomeReceipts

266,799

Imports

-1,778,117

Goods

-1,260,674

Services

-256,337

IncomePayments

-261,106

Unilateral

Transfers

-67,439

CurrentAccountBalance -530,668

13

U.S.TradeBalance&BalanceonServices1985-2002(billionsofUS$)

$200

$100

$0

-$100

-$200

-$300

-$400

-$500

198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002

Balanceongoods Services

14

BalanceofPayments

TheFinancialSector

TheCapitalandFinancialAccounttabulatestheflowsoffinancialassetsbetweendomesticresidentsandforeignresidentsandgovernments.

Theprivatecapitalaccounttabulatesflowsamongprivatedomesticresidentsandforeignprivateresidents.

15

TheCapitalAccount

TheCapitalandfinancialAccount:

Recordsinternationaltransactionsinthefinancialsector.

Includesportfolioandforeigndirectinvestment.

Includeschangesinbanks’andbrokers’cashdepositsthatarisefrominternationaltransactions.

Themainaccountsare:

US-OwnedAssetsAbroad:IncreaseordecreaseinUSownershipofforeignfinancialassets.

Foreign-OwnedAssetsintheUS:Increaseordecreaseinforeignownershipofdomesticassets.

ReserveAssets:Primarilytheassetsofcentralbanks.

16

PortfolioandForeignDirectInvestment

PortfolioInvestment:Individualorbusinesspurchaseofstocks,bond,orotherfinancialassetsordeposits.(Anincomestrategy)

ForeignDirectInvestment(FDI):Purchaseoffinancialassetsthatresultsina10percentorgreaterownershipshare.(Afinancialcontrolstrategy)

17

CapitalandFinancialAccount

CapitalAccount,Net -3,079

FinancialAccount

US-OwnedAssetsAbroad -283,414

USOfficialReserveAssets

-1,523

USGovernmentAssets

537

USPrivateAssets

-285,474

Foreign-OwnedAssets 829,173

ForeignOfficialAssets 248,573

OtherForeignAssets 580,600

NetFinancialAccountFlows 545,759

18

TheUnitedStatesFinancialAccount1985-2002(billionsofUS$)

$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0

-$100

198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002

Netdirectinvestment Netportfolioinvestment Netotherinvestment

19

Source:InternationalMonetaryFund,BalanceofPaymentsStatisticsYearbook,2000.

BOPExamples(U.S.A)

(U.S.companyimportsanautomobilevaluedat$50,000

Goods

Services

Income

PaymentsandReceipts

UT

Capital

Debits

-50,000

Credits

50,000

注：美國部門對外支付的美元都將成為美國的外部負債 20

BOPExamples

U.S.governmentsends$1millioninhumanitariansuppliestoAfghanistan

Goods

Services

IncomePaymentsandReceipts

UT

Capital

Debits

-1million

Credits

1million

21

BOPExamples

U.S.residentbuysaUKTbillequivalentinvalueto$1,000

Goods

Services

IncomePaymentsandReceipts

UT

Capital

Debits

-1,000

Credits

1,000

22

BOPExamples

U.S.residentreceives$100ininterestonaforeignassettheyown

Goods

Services

IncomePaymentsandReceipts

UT

Capital

Debits

-100

Credits

100

23

BOPExamples

AMarquetteUniversitystudentgoestoMexicoonbreakandspends$500

Goods

Services

IncomePaymentsandReceipts

UT

Capital

Debits

-500

Credits

500

24

BOPExamples

Total

Goods

Services

Income

PaymentsandReceipts

UT

Capital

Debits

-50,000

-500

-1mil

-1,000

-100

Credits

1mill

100

1,000

50,000

500

CurrentAccount

-50,400

CapitalAccount

50,400

25

OtherAccounts

NetErrorsandOmissions–Accountisusedtoaccountforstatisticalerrorsand/oruntraceablemonieswithinacountry

OfficialReserves–totalreservesheldbyofficialmonetaryauthoritieswithinacountry.–Thesereservesaretypicallycomprisedofmajor

currenciesthatareusedininternationaltradeand

financialtransactionsandreserveaccounts(SDRs)heldattheIMF

26

TheStatisticalDiscrepancy

ThesumofthedebitandcreditentriesinalloftheBOPshouldtotalzero.

Ofcoursethereareerrorsandomissionsresultinginanon-zerobalance.

Anoffsettingentrytothisnon-zerobalanceismadeinthestatisticaldiscrepancyaccount.

Inthisway,thetotalofthedebitandcreditentriesequalszero.

27

中國國際收支差額構成 單位：億美元

年份

經常項目

資本項目

誤差與遺漏

儲備

1997

297.2

229.6

-169.5

-348.6

1998

293.2

-63.2

-165.8

-50.7

1999

156.7

76.4

-148.0

-97.2

2000

205.2

19.2

-118.9

-105.5

2001

174.0

348.0

-49.0

-473.0

2002

354.0

323.0

78.0

-755.0

2003

458.8

527.3

184.2

-1168.0

2004

468.6

1106.6

270.5

-2063.6

2005

1608.2

629.6

-167.7

-2089.4

2006

2498.7

100.4

-128.7

-2474.7

2007

3718.3

735.1

164.0

-4619.8

2008

4261

189.6

-260.9

-4189.8

2009

2971

1448

-435

-3984

中國的外匯儲備余額（年末數）

年份 外匯儲備 增量（億美元）

1999

1547

97

2000

1656

109

2001

2122

466

2002

2864

742

2003

4033

1169

2004

6099

2066

2005

8189

2090

2006

10663

2474

2007

15282

4619

2008

19460

4178

2009

23991

3984

NetCreditorandNetDebtorStatus

Anetcreditorisanationwhosetotalclaimsonforeignresidentsexceedthetotalclaimsofforeignresidentsontheresidentsofthedomesticnation.

Anetdebtorisanationwhosetotalclaimsonforeignresidentsarelessthanthetotalclaimsofforeignresidentsontheresidentsofthedomesticnation.

Itisnotnecessarilygoodnorbadtobeeitheranetdebtorornetcreditor.

31

國家外匯管理局網站

網址：

中國歷年外匯儲備中國國際收支平衡表中國外債數據

中國國際投資頭寸表

32

CapitalAccountBalance(asaPercentofGDP)

TheUnitedStatesasaNetDebtor

TheUnitedStateshasbeenanetdebtoratvarioustimesinitshistory.TheUnitedStateswasanetdebtorinthelate1800s.

SOURCE:DatafromEconomicReviewofthefederalReserveBankofKansasCity.

3

3

TheRelationshipBetweentheCurrentAccountandtheCapitalAccount

ExpendituresApproachtoNationalIncome

Nationalincomeisthesumofexpendituresinthefollowingcategories;consumerexpenditures,privateinvestmentexpenditures,governmentexpenditures,andnetexportexpenditures,

y=c+ip+g+(x-m)

Letthecurrentaccount,caequalca=(x–m)

Then

y=c+ip+g+ca

34

TheRelationshipBetweentheCurrentAccountandtheCapitalAccount

IncomeApproach

Incomehasthreepossibleuses;itcanbespentoncurrentconsumption,itcanbesaved(privatesaving),andwepaytaxestothegovernment

y=c+sp+t

Becausebothapproachesequalnationalincome,wecansetthetwoidentitiesequal:

c+sp+t=c+ip+g+ca

or,sp–ip–(g-t)=ca

35

TheRelationshipBetweentheCurrentAccountandtheCapitalAccount

PrivateSaving

Privatesavingcanbeusedtopurchasethreetypesofassets,domesticprivateinvestment,governmentdebt(g–t)ortoaccumulateforeignassets(fa),

sp=ip+(g–t)+fa

wherefaisthe(net)accumulationofforeignassets(domesticresidents’purchasesofforeignassetsinexcessofforeignresidents’