報表分析邏輯切入點培訓(xùn)課件

基于戰(zhàn)略的報表分析新思維

第一講

報表分析邏輯切入點10/12/20231LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis研討要點與目的闡述報表分析的邏輯切入點基于M公司與GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?中石油應(yīng)否“海歸”？電信業(yè)“春天的故事”還能唱響多久?本講旨在闡明報表分析的常見誤區(qū)，把握報表分析的邏輯體系10/12/20232LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis從一道考倒全世界頂級MBA的難題

看財務(wù)報表分析的邏輯切入點

三大核心問題問題1M公司與GFC公司孰優(yōu)孰劣？孰強孰弱？問題2M公司與GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？問題3如何評價M公司與GFC公司的業(yè)績？10/12/20233LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis雇員規(guī)模：M公司v.sGFC公司10/12/20234LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis經(jīng)營規(guī)模--TA:M公司v.sGFC公司

10/12/20235LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis經(jīng)營規(guī)模--Sales:M公司v.sGFC公司

10/12/20236LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis現(xiàn)金流量(CFFOA)：M公司v.sGFC公司10/12/20237LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis股票市值：M公司v.sGFC公司10/12/20238LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis財務(wù)實力--NA：M公司v.sGFC公司10/12/20239LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis經(jīng)營績效--NI：M公司v.sGFC公司10/12/202310LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis

新經(jīng)濟與舊經(jīng)濟的強烈反差

財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2002)

項目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計M雇員人數(shù)36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45資產(chǎn)總額3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11銷售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44現(xiàn)金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股東權(quán)益68564085325400.99凈利潤17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.8610/12/202311LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis

新經(jīng)濟與舊經(jīng)濟的強烈反差

財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2003)

項目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計M雇員人數(shù)32.332.838.4103.55.718.2資產(chǎn)總額4,4853,0462,2469,77779612.3銷售收入1,8551,6421,7195,21632216.2現(xiàn)金流量762022084861583.1股票市值2182594539302,9150.32股東權(quán)益2521174348036101.32凈利潤384.95.648.599.90.49ROE15%4%1.3%6%16%0.3810/12/202312LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)10/12/202313LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)10/12/202314LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)

GM:-89;995;-146;Ford:-1057;-1153;-885710/12/202315LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)10/12/202316LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)(2003)10/12/202317LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2002)項目名稱

GFCM余額%余額%余額%余額%現(xiàn)金及等價物2145.829710.11456.638757.2應(yīng)收款項1,41638.11,05035.681537.2517.5存貨1002.7702.41838.371.0長期投資57315.443314.71095.014221.0固定資產(chǎn)3589.636412.375534.4233.4GW&無形資產(chǎn)1463.9662.2582.6172.5其他資產(chǎn)91224.567222.71275.9497.4資產(chǎn)總計3,7191002,9521002,19210067610010/12/202318LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2003)項目名稱

GFCM余額%余額%余額%余額%現(xiàn)金及等價物54812.233711.11808.049061.6應(yīng)收款項1,93643.21,26641.694041.9516.4存貨1092.4923.01888.460.8長期投資601.4301.01104.913717.2固定資產(chǎn)72616.275424.872232.1222.8GW&無形資產(chǎn)481.1722.4592.6344.3其他資產(chǎn)1,05823.549516.1472.1566.9資產(chǎn)總計4,4851003,0461002,24610079610010/12/202319LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis財務(wù)風(fēng)險(DebtRatio)10/12/202320LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:G(12v.s73)10/12/202321LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysisCFFOAv.sFreeCashFlowEBITDA（扣除利息、稅收、折舊和攤銷前的利潤）-Depreciationandamortization(折舊和攤銷）-Taxes（稅收）=Netoperatingprofitaftertax(NOPAT)(稅后經(jīng)營利潤）-Capitalexpenditures(資本性支出）-ChangesintheWCR(營運資本變動需要）=FreecashFlow(自由現(xiàn)金流量）10/12/202322LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:F(69v.s63)10/12/202323LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:C(12v.s73)10/12/202324LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis

現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:M

10/12/202325LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis財務(wù)報表分析的邏輯切入點權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制會計管理當(dāng)局動機盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量分析資產(chǎn)負(fù)債質(zhì)量核心盈利可持續(xù)性、成長性、現(xiàn)金流量調(diào)整與調(diào)節(jié)應(yīng)計制向現(xiàn)金流動制的轉(zhuǎn)換確認(rèn)和計量資產(chǎn)、負(fù)債、股東權(quán)益決策財務(wù)契約設(shè)計估值與投資信貸分析財務(wù)風(fēng)險評估審計風(fēng)險評估差錯歪曲報表失真問題報表分析緯度報表分析用途10/12/202326LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis德隆是被郎咸平搞跨的嗎？三大報表的功能區(qū)分資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表利潤表現(xiàn)金流量表從“德隆系”的垮臺看證券監(jiān)管的誤區(qū)基于新疆屯河的案例分析10/12/202327LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油（0857.HK）股價周線圖巴菲特撤退10/12/202328LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油（0857.HK）股價月線圖EPS:0.59;PE:8.4710/12/202329LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油業(yè)績因何突出？

－OperatingPerformancePerspective雇員人數(shù):24.73萬人，雇員薪金成本223.1，其中養(yǎng)老金24.710/12/202330LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油業(yè)績因何突出？

－OperatingPerformancePerspective10/12/202331LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油業(yè)績因何突出？

--FinancialPositionPerspective2004年末,油氣資產(chǎn)2358,占FA50.3%,機器設(shè)備1373,占FA29.3%10/12/202332LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油業(yè)績因何突出？

---FinancialPositionPerspective10/12/202333LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油業(yè)績因何突出？

--CashFlowPerspective10/12/202334LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油業(yè)績因何突出？

--CashFlowPerspective10/12/202335LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中石油業(yè)績因何突出？

---管理層自白中國石油2004年度業(yè)績報告10/12/202336LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysisPetroChinav.sExxonMobil項目名稱20002001200220032004營業(yè)收入－PC（億元）－EM（億美元）2,4532,2762,4132,0872,4442,0093,0382,3713,8862,913凈利潤－PC（億元）－EM（億美元）5461774551534691156962151,029253銷售利潤率－PC－EM22.3％7.8％15.7％7.3％14.8％5.7％19.5％9.1％24.2％8.7％資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率－PC－EM0.571.530.521.460.511.320.571.360.641.49凈資產(chǎn)收益率－PC－EM20.1％20.6％15.7％17.8％14.8％13.5％19.5％20.9％24.2％23.8％10/12/202337LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysisPetroChinav.sExxonMobil

PC:總股本1758億股,國有股90%,外資股10%,

4月8日收盤價約HK$5.00,總市值約HK$8790億項目名稱20002001200220032004股東權(quán)益－PC（億元）－EM（億美元）2,7167082,9067323,1667463,5668994,2521,018股票市值－PC（億元）－EM（億美元）

3,012

2,676

2,341

2,693

*****3,281資產(chǎn)總額－PC(億元)－EM(億美元)4,3201,4904,6261,4324,8311,5265,3171,7426,0991,953負(fù)債率－PC－EM37.1％52.5％37.2％48.9％34.5%51.1%32.9％48.4％30.3％47.9％10/12/202338LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysisPetroChinav.sExxonMobil項目名稱20002001200220032004經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流量－PC（億元）－EM（億美元）1,0252878292409732411,3723081,373433資本支出－PC（億元）－EM（億美元）593112600123728140829155953149自由現(xiàn)金流量－PC(億元)－EM(億美元)432175229117245101543153420284雇員人數(shù)－PC－EM(萬)n.a99.6n.a97.9n.a92.541.788.342.485.910/12/202339LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis移動通訊案例分析

－市場占有率10/12/202340LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中移動（0941.HK)股價周線圖PE:12.8410/12/202341LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis中國聯(lián)通（0761.HK)股價周線圖PE:19.1410/12/202342LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis移動通訊案例分析

－營業(yè)收入趨勢圖(watchforcomparability)10/12/202343LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis移動通訊案例分析

－EBIDTA10/12/202344LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis移動通訊案例分析

－NetIncome10/12/202345LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis移動通訊案例分析

－ROE10/12/202346LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis移動通訊案例分析

－財務(wù)狀況10/12/202347LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)(Impactof3G?）項目名稱中國移動中國聯(lián)通金額占比金額占比流動資產(chǎn)799.0921.67%178.5212.26%其中：銀行存款現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物應(yīng)收賬款存貨202.64451.4965.5324.995.49%12.24%1.78%0.68%53.17---52.3031.153.65%---3.59%2.14%非流動資產(chǎn)2,888.4378.33%1,277.7787.74%其中：固定資產(chǎn)&在建工程商譽2,493.02353.0067.61%9.57%1,189.0431.3781.65%2.15%資產(chǎn)總計3,687.52100%1,456.29100%移動：電信設(shè)施2180.63，占FA的87％；聯(lián)通：電信設(shè)施933.08，占FA的78％10/12/202348LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis現(xiàn)金流量結(jié)構(gòu)項目名稱中國移動2004中國移動2003中國聯(lián)通2004中國聯(lián)通2003經(jīng)營活動凈流量1037.79855.34238.2225.7投資活動凈流量-733.02-542.92-189.6-190.5--資本開支-591.43-438.71-183.9-196.7--收購附屬公司等-122.38-52.000.2-23.9QuasiFCF466.66416.6354.329.0融資活動凈流量-244.57-246.88-94.0-87.8現(xiàn)金凈流量60.2065.54-45.4-52.610/12/202349LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis美國電信公司概覽

--AT&T200320022001營業(yè)收入345.29378.27421.97凈利潤18.65-122.2668.11自由現(xiàn)金流量53.7366.0542.38資產(chǎn)總額其中:FA&IA占比479.8860.8%554.3754.5%股東權(quán)益139.56123.12負(fù)債率71.8%77.8%收入利潤率5.4%-32.3%16.1%凈資產(chǎn)收益率13.4%-99.3%

10/12/202350LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis美國電信公司概覽

--MCI(FormerWorldCom)200320022001營業(yè)收入273.15321.89376.08凈利潤222.11-91.92-155.98自由現(xiàn)金流量30.08-11.95-36.20資產(chǎn)總額其中:FA&IA占比273.6745.2%267.6254.9%股東權(quán)益84.72-222.95負(fù)債率69.0%---收入利潤率---------凈資產(chǎn)收益率------

10/12/202351LogicsofFinancialStatementA