版權(quán)說明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方,若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán),請進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)
文檔簡介
ExchangerateForexandexchangerateTheFOREXmarketiswherecurrenciesaretraded.Anexchangerateisthepriceofonecurrencyexpressedintermsofanother.Forexample,onTuesday,December18,2007,thepriceofRMBintermsofUSDwasapproximately:
1CNY=0.135302USDor1USD=7.3909CNY
NominalexchangerateItisthequotedforeignexchangerate:
thevalueofacountry'scurrencyinrelationtoothercurrencieswithoutadjustmentfortherateofinflation
IttellshowmuchforeigncurrencycanbeexchangedforaunitofdomesticcurrencyRealexchangeRateRealexchangerateisthenominalexchangerateadjustedbytheratioofforeignpricelevel(Pf)tothedomesticpricelevel(Pd).Itcanbeshownas:RER=e*Pf/PdIfeisexpressedasdomesticcurrency/foreigncurrency
OrRER=Pd/e*PdIfeisexpressedasforeigncurrency/domesticcurrencythedollar-Euroexchangerateis$1.36/1EUOTobuyabigMac,ifEurope’spriceis2.5euros,andtheU.S.priceis$3.40ThenRER=(1.36)*(2.5)/3.4=1,ItmeansthebigMacwouldcostthesameintheU.S.asin,Europe,whenthepriceisexpressedinacommoncurrency.RealexchangeRateContinuethedollar-Euroexchangerateis$1.36/1EUOHowever,ifthepriceinEuropeis3Euros,andtheU.S.priceisstill$3.4thenRER=(1.36)*(3)/3.4=1.2wesaythattheEurois20%overvaluedrelativetothedollar,therewillbepressureonthenominalexchangeratetoadjust,becausethesamegoodcanbepurchasedmorecheaplyinonecountrythaninanother.PurchasingPowerParitywhentherealexchangerateequal1,economistsaystheabsolutepurchasingpowerparityholdsPurchasingpowerparity(PPP)isatheorywhichstatesthatexchangeratesbetweencurrenciesareinequilibriumwhentheirpurchasingpowerofthecurrenciesarethesameineachofthetwocountries.Thismeansthattheexchangeratebetweentwocountriesshouldequaltheratioofthetwocountries'pricelevelofafixedcommonbasketofgoodsandservices.PurchasingPowerParityForexample,aparticularTVsetthatsellsfor750CanadianDollars[CAD]inCanadashouldcost500USDollars[USD]intheU.S.whentheexchangeratebetweenCanadaandtheUSis1.50CAD/USD.1.5CAD=1USD750CAD=500USDThebasisforPPPisthe"lawofoneprice".Intheabsenceoftransportationandothertransactioncosts,competitivemarketswillequalizethepriceofanidenticalgoodintwocountrieswhenthepricesareexpressedinthesamecurrency.PurchasingpowerparityExercise:ThepriceofNokiaN810intheU.S.is$480,andthepriceinChinais¥3837.IfthePPPtheoryhold,whatshouldbetheexchangerateforDollar-Yuan?Theexchangeratecurrentlyis$0.140647/1¥paretotheE-RbasedonthePPPtheory,IstheRMBovervaluedorundervalued?MeasuringtheExchangeRateBi-lateralexchangerateThisistheexchangeratebetweentwocountries.E.g.CNY/USDAUD/USDEURO/JAPUSD/GBPMeasuringtheExchangeRateWhenweassessacurrencybeingstrongorweak,theproblemisthatacurrency’sexchangeratemayriseagainstsomecurrencies,andfallagainstsomeothercurrencies.Inordertogiveanoverallpictureofitsfluctuation,itisbesttolookataweightedaverageexchangerateagainstallothercurrencyMeasuringtheExchangeRateWeightedexchangerateisacurrency’saveragevalueagainstabasketofcurrencies.TheweightgiventoeachcurrencydependsontheproportionoftradedonewiththatcountryGiveanindicationoftheoverall‘strength’or‘weakness’ofacountry’scurrencyininternationalmarketMeasuringtheExchangeRateDeterminationofExchangerateFloatingexchangerate—exchangeratedeterminedonlybydemandandsupplyofthecurrency,nogovernmentorcentralbankintervention.Fixedexchangerate—thevalueofthecurrencyfixedorpeggedinrelationtoananchorcurrency,notallowedtofluctuate.Managedexchangerate—usuallymeanthattheexchangerateisallowedtofluctuatewithinabandwiththeregulargovernmentorcentralbankintervention(buy/sell).FixedExchangeRateIfthereisashortageofthecurrencyintheForexmarket,thegovernmentwillincreasethesupplyofthecurrencyandcovertheshortagebybuyingbackforeigncurrency,foreignreservesaccumulated.USD/CNYQtyofCNYperweekE-R1SS’DShortageGov.sellthecurrency,accumulateforeignreservesFixedExchangeRateIfthereisasurplusofthecurrencyintheForexmarket,thecentralbankwillbuythesurplusbackbyusingtheforeignreservestopreventtheexchangeratefall(thecurrencydepreciate)USD/CNYQtyofCNYperweekE-R1DSD’surplusGov.buythesurpluswithitsforeignreservesAdvantagesoffixedexchangerateCertainty.Thereisapossibilityofimportedinflation.Preventsgovernmentspursuing“irresponsible”macroeconomicpolicies.Advantagesoffixedexchangerate1.Certainty.withfixedexchangerate,internationaltradeandinvestmentemuchlessrisky,sinceprofitsarenotaffectedbymovementsintheexchangerateAdvantagesoffixedexchangerateLittleornospeculation.Providedtherateisabsolutelyfixed–andpeoplebelievethatitwillremainso-thereisnopointinspeculating(becausenofluctuatingofE-R,nomoneymakingopportunitiesinbuyandsellofacurrency)ifthecountryhasahealthbalanceofpayment.(thereisnoBOPdisequilibrium—nobigsurplusorbigdeficit)Advantagesoffixedexchangerate3.Preventsgovernmentspursuing“irresponsible”macroeconomicpolicies.Governmentneedastoreofforeignreservestofixtheexchangerate,andthentheywon’twantpolicieswhichwillcausebigdeficitintheBOP,sothegovernmentwilltrytokeeptherateofinflationofthecountryroughlytotheworldlevels.DisadvantagesoffixedexchangerateThegovernmentneedstoholdlargeamountsofforeignreserves.Thereisapossibilityofimportedinflation.Exchangeratepolicymayconflictwiththeinterests(benefit)ofdomesticbusinessandtheeconomyasawhole.DisadvantagesoffixedexchangerateThegovernmentneedstoholdlargeamountsofforeignreserves.
IfthereisasurplusofthecurrencyintheForexmarket(adeficitinthecountry’sBOP),thegovernmentneedtouseforeignreservestobuythesurplusbacktomaintaintheexchangerate.Disadvantagesoffixedexchangerate2.Thereisapossibilityofimportedinflation.
Becausetheexchangerateisfixed,andifthereisainflationintradepartners,itwillcauseallimportedproductsincludingcomponents,rawmaterials,andfinalgoodsincreaseinprice,cost-pushinflationoccur.DisadvantagesoffixedexchangerateExchangeratepolicymayconflictwiththeinterests(benefit)ofdomesticbusinessandtheeconomyasawhole.E.g..Ifacountryhasaseveredeficit,thegovernmentmayneedtoincreaseinterestratetocuretheproblem,atthesametime,thispolicywilldiscouragethedomesticinvestment,andslowdowntheeconomyinthelongrun.FloatingExchangerateSupplyofthecurrencyincrease,ordemandforthecurrencydecreasewillcausetheexchangeratedecrease,orwesaythecurrencydepreciate;supplydecreaseorthedemandincrease,theexchangeratewillincrease,orwesaythecurrencyappreciate.USD/CNYQtyofCNYperweekE-R2E-R1S1S2D1D2USD/CNYE-R1E-R2S1S2D1D2QtyofCNYperweekCurrencydepreciateCurrencyappreciateCurrencydemandchangeChangeincreditentrancereflectdemandchangeExportgoodsandservicesCurrenttransferineflowinCapitaltransferinInvestmentinLoansinCentralbankbuyIncreaseinthesesectionreflectsincreasethedemandofthecurrency.SD0QtyofCADperweekUSD/CADD1D2Er0Er1Er2CurrencysupplychangechangeinthedebitentranceofthebalanceofpaymentreflectscurrencysupplychangeItincludesincrease/decreasein:ImportofgoodsandservicesCurrenttransferouteoutflowCapitaltransferoutDirectorportfolioinvestmentoutLoansoutCentralbankdirectsellIncreaseintheseentrancereflectstheIncreasethesupplyofthemoney.SS1S2ErEr1Er2USD/CADQtyofCADinaweekHowwilldemandandsupplyofcurrencyincrease/decreaseInshortrun,thefollowingarethemajorpossiblecausesofchangeincurrencydemandandsupplyDomesticinterestratechange.
Theinterestrateincrease,willincreasethedemandofthecurrency(moredepositsinthecurrencytoearnhigherinterest),andsupplywilldecrease(localpeoplesavemore,buylessimportedgoods,foreignersdemandlessloans,thenlesssupply).Inflationratecomparetoothercountry.
Iftheinflationishigherthantradingcountries,therewillbelessexports,andmoreimports,demandofthecurrencydecrease,andsupplyincrease.Speculation.Ifspeculatorsbelievethatthecurrencyisabouttofall,thensuddenlythesupplyofthecurrencyincrease.Howwilldemandandsupplyincrease/decreaseInthelongrun,thesupplyanddemandofacurrencydependson:Relativeinvestmentprospectsinthecountryandoutside.Iftheinvestmentprospectsinothercountriesarebrighter,thesupplythecurrencyincrease,anddemanddecrease.EconomicgrowthinthecountryandoutsideIfthedomesticerise,therewillbemoreimports,supplyofthecurrencyincrease.Ifothercountries’efall,theywilldemandlessexportsofthecountry,demandofcurrencyfallTheinternationalcompetitivenessofthecountryMorecompetitiveofthecountry’sindustryleadtomoreexport,anddemandincrease.MajorCausesofExchangeRateFluctuationCausesofexchangeratefluctuationinshortrun:InflationrateInterestrateSpeculationCausesofexchangeratefluctuationinlongrun:Relativeinvestmentprospectsinthecountryandoutside.TheeconomicgrowthinacountryTheinternationalcompetitivenessinacountryAdvantagesofafree-floatingexchangerateAutomaticcorrection.Balanceofpaymentdisequilibriaareautomaticallyandinstantaneouslycorrectedwithouttheneedforspecificgovernmentpolicies.Noneedtoholdlargeamountsofforeignreserves.SincethegovernmentisnotgoingtointerveneintheForexmarket,theexchangeratewilljustgoesupordownaccordingtothechangeinthedemandandsupplyofthecurrency.Lessriskofimportedinflation.IFthereisinflationintradingpartners,thecurrenciesinthosecountrywilldepreciategradually,andthiswilloffsettheeffectofthepriceincreaseintradingpartners.Disadvantagesofafree-floatingexchangerate1.Uncertaintyfortradersandinvestors.
Theuncertaintycausedbycurrencyfluctuationcandiscourageinternationaltradeandinvestment.2.Speculation.Theexchangeratewillchangeaccordingtocountry’schangeinpolicy,
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網(wǎng)頁內(nèi)容里面會有圖紙預(yù)覽,若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲空間,僅對用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理,對用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容,請與我們聯(lián)系,我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 2024年離婚不離家互不干涉的婚姻協(xié)議書范文
- 《計(jì)算機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全防護(hù)技術(shù)(第二版)》 課件 第3章-任務(wù)3.1.1 探究古典加密技術(shù)
- 游戲音效的設(shè)計(jì)與應(yīng)用
- 安全施工保證措施
- 新進(jìn)廠職工安全培訓(xùn)試題各地真題
- 部門級安全培訓(xùn)試題答案新
- 班組三級安全培訓(xùn)試題含答案(典型題)
- 項(xiàng)目安全培訓(xùn)試題附答案【突破訓(xùn)練】
- 職工安全培訓(xùn)試題及答案【基礎(chǔ)+提升】
- 安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化安全培訓(xùn)試題【考試直接用】
- 遼師大版六年級上冊英語素材各單元單詞重點(diǎn)句子
- 新人教版九年級上冊初中化學(xué) 課題1 愛護(hù)水資源 教學(xué)課件
- 綠化養(yǎng)護(hù)安全文明作業(yè)保障措施
- SJG 100-2021 深圳市公共住房建設(shè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)-高清現(xiàn)行
- 《海洋監(jiān)測技術(shù)》課件
- 中油延長石油甲醇汽柴油調(diào)制中心試生產(chǎn)運(yùn)行方案版
- 化產(chǎn)車間焦油泄漏應(yīng)急演練方案
- 企業(yè)安全生產(chǎn)基本情況調(diào)查表范本
- 內(nèi)外部環(huán)境識別表(環(huán)境安全)
- 小學(xué)語文教學(xué)設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)施(新)(課堂PPT)
- 建設(shè)項(xiàng)目對海洋生物資源影響評價(jià)技術(shù)規(guī)程
評論
0/150
提交評論