DDP-深度脫碳的政策教訓(xùn)-在大型新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體（英）-2021.11-86正式版

POLICYLESSONS

ONDEEPDECARBONIZATION

inlargeemergingeconomies

Brazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfrica

Aninternationalreportcoordinatedby

theDeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative

NOVEMBER2021

Copyright?2021IDDRI

TheInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRelations(IDDRI)encouragesthereproductionandpubliccommunicationofitscopyrightmaterials,withpropercredit(bibliographicalreferenceand/orcorrespondingURL),forpersonal,corporateorpublicpolicyresearch,oreducationalpurposes.However,IDDRI’scopyrightedmaterialsarenotforcommercialuseordissemination(printorelectronic).Unlessexpresslystatedotherwise,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethoseofthevariousauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofIDDRI’sboard.

Citation

DDP(2021).Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies.DeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative-IDDRI.Paris.

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HenriWaisman,

henri.waisman@

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Editing:MartaTorresGunfaus,AnnaPérezCatalà,LolaVallejo,HenriWaisman.

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POLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATION

inlargeemergingeconomies

Introduction

3

Brazil:

5

Introduction

5

Part1:Scenarioresults

7

Part2:KeyPolicyLessons

18

Annex

23

India:

25

Introduction

25

Part1:Scenarioresults

27

Part2:KeyPolicyLessons

32

Indonesia:

39

Part1:Scenarioresults

40

Part2:KeyPolicyLessons

51

SouthAfrica:

55

Introduction

55

Part1:Scenarioresults

56

Part2:KeyPolicyLessons

62

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies1

Thisreporthasbeenauthoredbyaconsortiumofindependentexpertsactingintheirpersonalcapacitiesandwhohavenotbeennominatedbytheirrespectivegovernments.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotreflecttheviewsofanygovernmentororganization.

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies

Introduction

MartaTorresGunfaus,AnnaPerezCatala,HiltonTrollip,HenriWaisman.

Theworldhasagreedtopreventtheirreversibledamagestohumanandnaturalecosystemscausedbyanthropogenicglobalwarmingbylimitingtheriseofglobaltemperaturetowellbelow2°Candtopursueeffortstolimititto1.5°C.Toimplementthis,theParisAgreementgroundsthisgoalintermsofglobalemissiontrajectoriesandtheneedtoembedthemintheinthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.Subsequentlyscience(IPCCSR1.5)furtherspecifiesthatglobalneutralityconcerningcarbondioxidespecificallyshouldhappenbetween2050(for1.5°C)and2075(for2°C).Italsopointsoutthenecessityofmindingnon-CO2forcerstomaintaintheglobalobjective.Toreachthisscaleofemissionreductions,thescientificassessmentconcludesthatrapidandfar-reachingtransformations,farbeyondwhathasbeenobservedinthepast,arerequiredinallcomponentsoftheeconomicsystem,i.e.inenergy,urbanandinfrastructure,industryandlandandecosystems.Suchdrastictransitionsinturnrequireprofoundchangesintechnologiesbutalsoinsocial,economic,institutionalandpolicycondi-tions.Scienceshowsthatthechangesrequiredbyclimateobjectivescanbecompatiblewithbroadersustainabledevelopmentobjectivesifactionisimple-mentedwithoutdelay,isguidedbystrategicvisionsoftransformationsinformingthedesignofwell-designedpolicypackagesandthecooperationamongactorsandisenabledbyeffectiveinternationalcooperation.Withtheseframeworkconditionsathand,countriesaresettoexplorenationalpathwaystoexplainhowtherapidandfar-reachingtransitionsrequiredgloballycanhappenineachcountrycontext.

Nationaldeepdecarbonisationoflargeemergingeconomieshasbeenlargelyexploredfromatech-no-economicperspective,resultinginviablesetsof

long-termpathwaysunderanumberofconditions.Existinganalysisshowsthatthenationaltransitioncanmostlybeeninitiatedusingexistingtechnologiesandmarketinstrumentsatlowandoftennetnegativefinancialcostandthat,usually,thesetransformationscanhaveassociatedlargeoverallneteconomicbene-fitswhenexternaleconomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsarefactoredin.However,similartomostpartsoftheworld,mostmajornecessarydecarboni-sationtransformationsareeithernothappeningorhappeningataslowerpacethannecessary.Thisgapbetweenexistingevidenceandconcreteactionhigh-lightsthatthecarbonneutraltransitionisnotonlyamatteroftechno-economicfeasibilitybutessentiallyaquestionofpoliticaleconomy.Actualimplemen-tationrequiresclarityaboutthechoicestobemadeinthetransition,abouttheconcretepoliciesandactionsthatcanbeenvisaged,aboutthosewhocanbewinnersandthosewhomayloseandthemeasuresadoptedtomanagethesocio-economiccostsofthetransition.Scientificassessmentsshouldthereforebeseenlessasaninstrumenttoillustratetransitionpathwaysinanormativemannerthanasawaytodeterminetheinclusivewhole-of-societyconversa-tionthatwouldberequiredtomakethetransitioneffectiveandacceptable.

TheDDPcommunitybehindthisreporthascommit-tedtothisvisionoftheroleofscenarioanalysisinthepublicdebate.Thebodyofknowledgeemergingfromthiscommunityaimsatensuringthatthefeaturesofthetechno-economicdeepdecarbonisationtransfor-mationsarecontextualizedinthediversityofcountrycircumstancesanddescribedwithsufficientdetailsandgranularitytoinformdecisionsrequiredtodrivethesetransformations.Keychallengestodate,whicharecriticaltoincreaseambitionandaccelerateaction,

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies3

include:connectingthescenariosanalysisandthe

diversityofpoliciesandactionstoimplementation

intherealworld;revealingthecriticalconditions

thatareoutsidethecontrolofnationalauthorities,

whereinternationalcooperationmustplayarole,and

ensuringownershipoftheinsightsemergingfromthe

scenariosbyadiversityofactorstoempowerthemin

thepublicdebates.

TheDDPapproachunderlyingthisreport’sresearch

isestablishedwiththesekeychallengesinmind.It

isfundamentallyacountry-drivenexploration,back

castingfromthemid-centuryemissionandsocio-eco-

nomicobjectivestoinformtheshort-termdecisions

withinandacrosssystems.Sectoraldeepdivesallow

foranin-depthinvestigationofalllevers,opportuni-

tiesandchallengessuitedtoinformdomesticstake-

holderdebateinhighlycomplicatedsectors,suchas

transport,industry,oragriculture/land-use,whichare

traditionallyrepresentedpoorlyinexistinglong-term

roadmaps.Thestakeholderengagementapproachto

thedevelopmentofthescenariosandemanating

policyinsightsisanessentialmeansforthesescien-

tificassessmentstoserveanactionagenda.

Thisreportpresentsasynthesisoftheresultsofthe

assessmentsconductedinBrazil,India,Indonesiaand

SouthAfrica.Foreachofthecountrieschapters,Part

describesthemainfeaturesoftheeconomy-wideDeepDecarbonizationScenario(s)(DDS),includingadescriptionofkeynational-scalesocio-economicaspectsandanexplicitcharacterisationoftheemis-sionobjectiveandtrajectory.Torealisethenecessarychangestogetontracktothispath,adescriptionoftheCurrentPolicyScenario(CPS)isalsopresented,includingadescriptionofthemainpoliciesandactionsconsidered.Scenarioresultsincludeanin-depthdescriptionatsectorlevelforthedeepdivesselectedbyeachcountry.PartIIofthecountrychaptersfocusesonkeypolicylessons,whichcanserveasdirectinputsintopolicyconversationsatthecountrylevel.Itincludesadescriptionofthemainsynergiesandtrade-offswithcountrynon-climateobjectives,prior-ityshort-termpoliciesandactions,withafocusonwhereshiftsfromcurrentpathsarecriticallyrequired,investmentspatternsandkeyinternationalenablersandacceleratorsofdomestictransitions.

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies

BRAZIL

EmilioL.LaRovere

TheBrazilianNDChasaneconomy-widegoalof37%GHGemission

CarolinaB.S.Dubeux

reduction,by2025and43%reductionby2030,comparedwith2005

WilliamWills

asthebaseyear.Brazilalsomadevoluntarycommitmentsofemission

MicheleK.C.Walter

reductionsin2009duringCOP15(Copenhagen)linkedtoitsNAMAs,

GiovannaNaspolini

correspondingtokeepemissionsbelowacapofroughly2GtCO2eqin

OttoHebeda

2020.Morerecently,theBrazilianPresidentannouncedattheClimate

DanielN.S.Gon?alvez

LeaderSummitorganizedbyUSPresidenton22April2021thecountry’s

GeorgeV.Goes

commitmenttoreachclimateneutralityby2050.

MárcioD'Agosto

ThisstudysimulatestwoGHGemissionsscenariosinBraziluntil

ErikaC.Nogueira

2050.Itprovidesaframeworkforananalysisofeconomy-wideand

SérgioH.F.daCunha

sectoralindicatorsofadecarbonizationpathwayalignedwiththe

CláudioGesteira

generalobjectiveoftheParisAgreement(net-zeroGHGemissions

Ga?lleLeTreut

in2050).TheCurrentPoliciesScenario(CPS)followsthetrendofongo-

GiovannaCavalcanti

ingmitigationactions.Itsemissionsareof1.65GtCO2eqin2030,with

MarkBermanzon

noincreaseinambitionbetween2030and2050.TheCPSnearlymeets

thecountry’stargetfor2030underthe“newfirstNDC”butisabovethe

CenterforIntegratedStudieson

figure(1.4GtCO2eq)ofarevisedtargetwhenthe2005baseyearemis-

ClimateChangeandtheEnvironment

sionsareupdatedaccordingtothenew4thnationalemissionsinventory.

(CENTROCLIMA)atCOPPE/UFRJ–

TheDeepDecarbonizationScenario(DDS)reaches1.0GtCO2eqin2030,

InstituteforResearchandGraduate

goingbeyondtheNDCtargetandfollowingaGHGemissionstrajectory

StudiesofEngineering,Federal

compatiblewiththeglobalobjectiveof1.5oC,achievingnet-zeroemis-

UniversityofRiodeJaneiro.

sionsin2050.

ThesectoralmitigationmeasuresconsideredinCPSarebasedon

nationalplansandpolicies.DDSincorporatesmoreambitiousactions

andotheravailabletechnologies.DDS’smainfeaturesarearadical

reductionindeforestationratesandanincreaseofcarbonsinks.Carbon

pricingfrom2021isassumedforasignificantshareoftheemissions

(EnergyandIPPU),withsectorsintroducingmitigationactionswithcosts

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies 5

Brazil

underthecarbonpriceineachperiod,startingwiththemostcost-effective.Carbonpricesareintroducedthroughacap-andtradesysteminIndustry,andacarbontaxonGHGemissionsfromthecombustionoffossilfuelsinothersectors.Theywillgrowlinearly,reaching25USD/tCO2eqin2030and65USD/tCO2eqin2050.Carbonpricingwillbeneutralfromafiscalperspective,with100%ofitsrevenuesrecycledbackintotheeconomythroughlabourchargesreductionaimingtofosteremployment,andtocompensatelow-incomehouseholdsfortheaveragepricelevelincrease.

Populationsizeincreasesfrom210millioninhab-itantsin2019toabout233millioninhabitantsin2050.Inthisperiod,theurbanpopulationsharegrowsfrom86%to89%.Followingthesharpdown-turnintheeconomyfrom2015to2020duetoapolitical-economiccrisisandtheCOVID-19pandemic,Brazilianeconomyeconomicrecoveryisassumedtostarton2021:annualaverageGDPgrowthrateswouldbeof3,5%in2021;2,5%from2021to2030;2,25%from2031to2040;and2%from2041to2050(withlineargrowthassumedwithineachdecade).Afterthedrawbackinthe2015-2020period,Giniindexstartstodecreaseagain,butslowerthanthe2000-2015record.Householdsizeisprojectedtodecreaseslowlywhilehouseholddisposableincomeasa%ofGDPisprojectedtoincrease.TradewillbecomemoreimportanttoBrazilduringthescenariotimeframe,andimporttaxesandprotectionismwillbereduced,followingtheglobaltrend.

Weuseanintegratedmodellingapproach,whereasetofsixsectoralmodelsislinkedtoaCGEmodel(IMACLIM-BR).Thesectoralmodelsconsistoffourenergydemandmodels(transport,industry,buildings,andagricultureenergydemand),anagri-culture,forestryandotherlanduse(AFOLU)modelandanenergysupplymodel(MATRIZ).GHGemissionestimatesfromWastecompletethepicture.

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies

Table1

Brazil

PART1:SCENARIORESULTS

EMISSIONPROFILES

GHGemissionsreach17MtCO2eqinDDSand1889inCPSby2050.Comparing2050inbothscenarioswith2020values,DDSis99%lower,while

CPSis27%higher. presentsthefiguresby

sector.T1

MostGHGemissionreductionscomefromlandusechangeandforestry.ComparedtoCPS,in2050DDSemissionsfromdeforestationare93%lower,areductionof953MtCO2eq.Onthetopofthat,carbonremovalsincrease76%,equivalentto451MtCO2eq,thankstoincreasedforestedandprotectedareas(indigenouslandsandconservationunits).Transportisthesecondmostrelevantsector,withanemissionreductionof126MtCO2eq(53%),followedbythewastesectorwithareductionof120MtCO2eq(65%),andlivestockactivitieswith116MtCO2eq(22%).Finally,inindustrythereductionisof84MtCO2eq(31%),andinenergysupplyaddedtootherenergyconsumptionsectorsof27MtCO2eq(23%).Theonlyactivitywithasmallincreaseinemissionsiscropping,

with4MtCO2eq(4%)moreemissionsinDDSduetohigherbiofuelsproduction.

InDDS,onlytwosectorshavehigherGHGemis-sionsin2050thaninthebaseyear2019:croppingactivitiesincreaseemissionsby29%;andindustryby14%.Inthesecases,undertheassumptionofnomajorbreakthroughsordisruptivetechnologies,theimprovementoftechnologiescurrentlyinusewasnotsufficienttocompensateforthehigherproductionlevels.

MITIGATIONACTIONSANDCOSTS

InDDS,besidesthehugeefforttocurbdowndeforestationandincreaseremovals,thecarbonpricingpolicysuppliesthecomplementarymiti-gationactionsinothersectorsrequiredtoreachnet-zeroemissionsin2050.Table2presentsthecumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsperdecade(MtCO2eq).T2

Table1–TotalGHGEmissionsperSector,2005-2050,underCPSandDDS(MtCO2eq)

MtCO2eq

2005

2010

2019

2020

2030

2005-2030

2040

2050

CPS-DDS

(2050)

LandUseChange

CPS

1,024

-53%

1,024

1,024

2,171

668

948

1,018

-93%

(LUC)–grossemissions

DDS

614

-72%

201

71

Removals

CPS

-556

123%

-576

-593

-249

-313

-574

-591

76%

(LUC,Forest,ProtectedAreasandOther)

DDS

-695

179%

-794

-1042

Agriculture

CPS

97

-34%

101

115

146

161

92

92

4%

(crops+energy)

DDS

99

-32%

106

119

Livestock

CPS

466

42%

485

529

329

329

433

432

-22%

453

38%

444

413

DDS

Transport

CPS

209

50%

220

240

139

173

196

175

-53%

167

20%

139

114

DDS

Industry

CPS

194

40%

232

268

139

162

162

166

-31%

(energy+IPPU)

DDS

172

23%

180

184

Energy(supply+demandfromhouseholds

CPS

127

27%

115

120

100

111

121

95

-23%

andservices)

DDS

120

21%

100

93

Waste

CPS

105

71%

145

186

61

69

100

102

-65%

76

25%

78

65

DDS

Total

CPS

1,665

-41%

1,745

1,889

2,837

1,361

1,479

1,488

-99%

1,005

-65%

454

17

DDS

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies7

Brazil

Commandandcontrolpoliciescombinedwithconstrainingtheaccessoffarmersandrancherstopubliccredits(subjecttoconformitywithenvironmentallawsandregulations)achieve59%oftotalcumulativeGHGemissionreduc-tionsupto2050,throughthesharpreductionofannualdeforestationrate.The2004-2012recordhasalreadyshownthepotentialofthesemeasuresthatcanbesuccessfullyadoptedagain.Command-and-controlmeasuresalsoallowtoavoiddefor-estationthroughtheincreaseofthenumberandthesurfaceofconservationareas(e.g.,permanentpreservationareas,indigenouslanddemarcation,andotherlegalreserves).

Thecarbonpricingpolicycansupply30%oftotalcumulativeavoidedemissionsupto2050indifferentsectors:AFOLU(18%),Transport(6.5%),Industry(4%),andEnergysupply(1%).

Nativevegetationrestorationinpublicandprivateareashaveasignificantabatement

potentialandlowercoststhantheothersectors.Itallowstoremove2,647MtCO2equpto2050,whennativevegetationrestorationwillreach30.18millionha.Privateareaspresentmoreattractivecostsincomparisonwithpublicareas(7versus17USD/tCO2eqin2021,8versus28in2031,and9versus31in2041).ConsideringtheenforcementofForestCodecompliance,privateareasprovidehighercumulativeavoidedemissionsin2021-2030(121versus38MtCO2eq)andin2031-2040(322versus302MtCO2eq)thanpublicareas.However,inthelastdecade,thebulkofremovalswillcomefrompublicareasthankstoabettercost-effectiveness,andthusitscontributiontocumulativeavoidedGHGemissionsthroughoutthewhole2020-2050periodwillbeof1,6311against1,015MtCO2eqfromprivateareas.

Theabatementcostassessmentindicatesthepathwayofcarbonprices.Costsforagivenmitiga-tionoptionmayvarythroughoutthethreedecades

Table2.Cumulativeavoidedemissions(CPS-DDS)permitigationactions,perdecade(MtCO2eq)

Cumulativeavoidedemissionsperdecade(MtCO2eq)

Decades

2021–2030

2031–2040

2041–2050

TotalMitigationActions

3,629

10,069

16,103

CarbonPricingPolicy

1,013

2,618

5,254

AFOLU

619

1,483

3,281

Nativeforestrestorationinpublicareas(throughgovernmentconcession)

38

302

1,291

Nativeforestrestorationinprivateareas(offsets)

121

322

572

Plantedforests(homogeneousandintegratedcrop-livestock-forestsystems)

196

244

275

Agriculture

39

76

38

Livestock(restorationofdegradedpastures,intensification,other)

225

538

1,105

Transport(freightandpassenger)

233

639

1,064

Modalshift

132

169

271

Electromobility

-

346

520

Biofuels

98

124

273

Industry

126

387

694

Energyintensiveindustries

86

257

451

Lightindustry(restofindustry)

40

129

243

EnergySupply

35

110

216

Powergeneration

8

42

107

Self-consumptionandfugitiveemissions

28

68

109

OtherMitigationPolicies

2,616

7,451

10,849

AFOLU

2,461

6,957

9,887

Reducingannualdeforestationrate

2,252

6,367

8,940

Increasingconservationunits,indigenouslandsandotherprotectedareas

209

590

947

Waste

155

494

963

Source:theauthors.

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies

T4T5

Brazil

duetoincreasingeconomiesofscaleandvariationsincostassumptions(e.g.,decreasingcostsforelectricvehiclesandrenewableelectricity).Table3presentsthecumulativeavoidedemissionspermitigationcostrange(US$/tCO2eq)ineachdecade.T3

Asignificantshareofavoidedemissionscanbeobtainedatnegativecosts.Modalshiftsinthefreighttransportsector(e.g.,fromroadstorailwaysandwaterways),awiderangeofenergyefficiencymeasuresinindustryandsustainableagriculturalpractices(e.g.,no-tillsystems,biologicalfixationofnitrogen)canbeimplementedatnegativecostsupto2050.Inthelastdecade,thisshareisreducedto13%.

pathwaytowardsnet-zeroGHGemissionsin

2050canbereachedwithacarbonpriceof25,45and65USD/tCO2eq,respectively,ineachdecade.AFOLUremainsthekeysectortothisend,sinceitpresentsthelargestmitigationpotentialwithalowcostperavoidedGHGemission.Energyefficiencymeasuresinindustry,andelectromobilityinpassen-gertransportalsoproviderelevantcontributions.Theidentifiedportfolioofmitigationactionspresentsa

significantdeclineofmarginalreturnsafter35USD/tCO2eq.Therefore,amuchmorecost-effectivetrajec-toryofcarbonprices(suchas25,30and35USD/tCO2eqineachdecade,forexample)candeliveranambitiousmitigationtargetin2050,notensuringbut

gettingclosetoclimateneutrality,asitwouldprovide100%,87%and94%oftheDDScumulativeavoidedemissionsineachdecade.Thisismainlyduetotheunderlyingassumptionofcountinguponavailabletechnologiesonly.ItillustratesthehugemitigationpotentialreadytobetappedatlowcostsinBrazilevenbeforethedeploymentofnewdisruptivetechnologiesexpectedtocomeonstreamupto2050.

MACROECONOMICANDSOCIALIMPLICATIONS

DDSallowstoreachcarbonneutralitywhilekeep-ingslightlybettereconomicandsocialdevelop-mentresultsthaninCPS.Throughouttheperiodupto2050,GDPandGDPpercapitaareslightlyhigher,unemploymentrateisslightlylowerandtheaveragedisposableincomeforthepooresthouseholdincomeclassisslightlyhigher,comparedtoCPS.Tables4and5comparethemacroeconomicandsocialresultsofthetwoscenarios.

Thecarbonpricingschemeleadstohigherdomes-ticpricelevels,contributingtodeterioratingtermsoftradeandaffectingtradebalanceresults.Theratiotradebalancedeficit/GDPishigherinDDSthaninCPS,throughouttheperiodupto2050,althoughlowerthanin2020(buthigherthanin2015).

Table3–CumulativeavoidedGHGemissions(CPS-DDS)percostrangeofmitigationactions,perdecade

Mitigationactioncostranges

2021–2030

2031–2040

2041-2050

%MtCO2eq/

%MtCO2eq/

%MtCO2eq/

(USD/tCO2eq)

MtCO2eq

MtCO2eq

MtCO2eq

period

period

period

upto0

167

16%

478

18%

661

13%

upto5

198

20%

582

22%

986

19%

upto10

659

65%

1,613

62%

2,236

43%

upto15

659

65%

1,613

62%

3,299

63%

upto20

963

95%

1,619

62%

3,299

63%

upto25

1,013

100%

1,619

62%

3,299

63%

upto30

2,282

87%

3,308

63%

upto35

2,309

88%

4,916

94%

upto40

2,319

89%

4,916

94%

upto45

2,618

100%

4,916

94%

upto65

5,254

100%

Note:costsinpresentvalueofthefirstyearofeachdecade(at8%discountrate).

Source:theauthors.

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies9

Brazil

Asmartrecyclingofcarbonpricingrevenuescanbesociallyfriendly.Carbonrevenuesaredistributedbacktotheeconomy,keepingthegovernmentnetlendingevolutionidenticalinDDSandCPS,underthefollowingrules:i)partofthecarbonrevenuesaretransferredbackfromthegovernmenttohouseholdstoneutralizetheeffectofthecarbonpriceonpurchas-ingpower;ii)therestofthecarbonrevenuesisusedtoreducelaborcharges.Thelatterdecreasesdistortionsontheeconomyandiskeytocreatingadditional150thousandjobsinDDScomparedtoCPS.Thesejobsarecreatedmainlyintheservices,transport,forest,andbiofuelssectors.Thecarbonpricepenalizesinahigherproportioncarbon-intensivesectors,andrecyclingcarbonrevenuesfavorsmorelabor-intensivesectorsandpoorerhouseholdclasses.

ThehigheremploymentandwagelevelsinDDSimproveincomedistribution.Thepositiveimpact

onhouseholds’incomelevelsisparticularlyrelevantinHH1andHH2groups(bottom60%),whichdependmoreonlaborincome.HH1(the20%pooresthouse-holds,mostofwhichwereundertheextremepovertylineinthebaseyear)benefitevenmorefromtheDDSscenarioduetothedirecttransfersofcollectedcarbonrevenuesfromthegovernment.

DDSallowsneutralizingGHGemissionsin2050whilemitigatestheadverseeffectsofcarbontaxationonpoorhouseholds.DisposableincomegainsinDDSaresignificantcomparedtoCPS,thankstohigheractivitylevels,lowerlaborcharges,andincreasedtransfersfromthegovernment,whicharereflectedinmorejobsandhigherincome.DDSisalsoprogressiveintermsofincomedistributionthrough-outtheperiodupto2050,aslowerincomehouseholdclassesshowhigherdisposableincomegrowththanricherones,andfasterincreasethaninCPS.

Table4-Mainmacroeconomicresults

Scenario

2015

2020

CPS(2030)

CPS(2050)

DDS(2030)

DDS(2050)

Population

203

212

225

233

225

233

GDP(Billion2015USD)

1,896

1,852

2,385

3,547

2,391

3,552

GDPvariationinrelationtoCPS

-

-

-

-

0.3%

0.1%

GDPpercapita(Thousand2015USD)

9.32

8.75

10.60

15.23

10.63

15.25

TradeBalance(%ofGDP)

-0.4%

-1.0%

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.5%

-0.9%

Unemploymentrate(%)

9.5%

7.6%

6.9%

7.4%

6.8%

7.2%

PriceindexinrelationtoCPS(CPS=1)

-

-

-

-

1.01

1.04

Totalnetemissions(GtCO2eq)

1,518

1,488

1,665

1,889

1,005

17

Percapitaemissions(tCO2eq)

7.48

7.03

7.40

8.11

4.47

0.07

Carbonprice(2015USD/tCO2eq)

-

-

-

-

25

65

Carbonpricingrevenues(Billion2015USD)

-

-

-

-

12.9

34.6

Source:theauthors.

Table5–Disposableincomeofhouseholdsbyscenarioandperhouseholdincomeclass,2015-2050

Scenario

2015

2020

CPS(2030)

CPS(2050)

DDS(2030)

DDS(2050)

Disposableincome_HH1(2015=1)

1.00

1.05

1.44

2.40

1.45

2.45

(poorest20%ofhouseholds)

Disposableincome_HH2(2015=1)

1.00

1.04

1.37

2.15

1.38

2.17

(40%ofhouseholds)

Disposableincome_HH3(2015=1)

1.00

1.01

1.29

1.92

1.30

1.93

(30%ofhouseholds)

Disposableincome_HH4(2015=1)

1.00

0.98

1.23

1.80

1.23

1.80

(richest10%ofhouseholds)

Disposableincome_HH1(inrelationtoCPS)

-

-

-

-

0.7%

1.8%

Disposableincome_HH2(inrelationtoCPS)

-

-

-

-

0.4%

0.9%

Disposableincome_HH3(inrelationtoCPS)

-

-

-

-

0.3%

0.4%

Disposableincome_HH4(inrelationtoCPS)

-

-

-

-

0.1%

0.1%

Source:theauthors.

Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies

Brazil

SECTORALDEEPDIVES

Agriculture,ForestryandLandUse(AFOLU)

Agricultureisanessentia