項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理分析中英文對(duì)照外文翻譯文獻(xiàn)

PAGE1PAGE1PAGE1中英文對(duì)照外文翻譯文獻(xiàn)(文檔含英文原文和中文翻譯)原文：ProjectRiskAnalysisChapter1Introduction1.1AboutthiscompendiumThiscoursecompendiumistobeusedinthecourse“Risikostyringisprojector”.Thefocuswillbeonthefollowingtopics:?Riskidentification?Riskstructuring?Riskmodelinginthelightofatimescheduleandacostmodel?RiskfollowsupWewillalsodiscusselementsrelatedtodecisionanalysiswhereriskisinvolved,anduseoflifecyclecostandlifecycleprofitmodels.Thecoursecompendiumcomprisesalargenumberofexercises,anditisrecommendedtodomostoftheexercisesinordertogetagoodunderstandingofthetopicsandmethodsdescribed.AseparateMSExcelprogram,pRisk.xlshasbeendevelopedinordertoassistnumericalcalculationsandtoconductMonteCarlosimulation.1.2DefinitionsAleatoryuncertaintyVariationofquantitiesinapopulation.Wesometimesusethewordvariabilityratherthanaleatoryuncertainty.EpistemicuncertaintyLackofknowledgeaboutthe“world”,andobservablequantitiesinparticular.DependencyTherelationbetweenthesequencesoftheactivitiesinaproject.ObservablequantityAquantityexpressingastateofthe“world”,i.e.aquantityofthephysicalrealityornature,thatisunknownatthetimeoftheanalysisbutwill,ifthesystembeinganalyzedisactuallyimplemented,takesomevalueinthefuture,andpossiblybecomeknown.ParameterWeusethetermparameterintwowaysinthisreport.Themainuseofaparameteristhatitisaquantitythatisapartoftheriskanalysismodels,andforwhichweassignnumericalvalues.Themoreacademicdefinitionofaparameterusedinaprobabilitystatementaboutanobservablequantity,X,isthataparameterisaconstructwherethevalueoftheparameteristhelimitingvaluewherewearenotabletosaturateourunderstandingabouttheobservablequantityXwhatsoevernewinformationwecouldgetholdof.ParameterestimateThenumericvalueweassesstoaparameter.ProbabilityAmeasureofuncertaintyofanevent.RiskRiskisdefinedastheanswertothethreequestions[14]:i)whatcangowrong?ii)Howlikelyisit?Andifitgoeswrong,iii)whataretheconsequences?TodescribetheriskisascenarioRiskacceptanceAdecisiontoacceptarisk.RiskacceptancecriterionAreferencebywhichriskisassessedtobeacceptableorunacceptable.ScheduleAplanwhichspecifiesthestartandfinalizationpointoftimesfortheactivitiesinaproject.StochasticdependencyTwoormorestochasticvariablesare(stochastically)dependentiftheexpectationofonestochasticvariabledependsonthevalueofoneormoreoftheotherstochasticvariables.StochasticvariableAstochasticvariable,orrandomquantity,isaquantityforwhichwedonotknowthevalueitwilltake.However,wecouldstatestatisticalpropertiesofthevariableormakeprobabilitystatementaboutthevalueofthequantity.1.3DEFINITIONSUncertaintyLackofknowledgeabouttheperformanceofasystem,andobservablequantitiesinparticular.Chapter2RiskManagementGenerally,riskmanagementisdefined(IEC60300-3-9)asa“systematicapplicationofmanagementpolicies,proceduresandpracticestothetasksofanalyzing,evaluatingandcontrollingrisk”.Itwillcomprise(IECdefinitionsinparentheses):?Riskassessment,i.e.–Riskanalysis(“Systematicuseofavailableinformationtoidentifyhazardsandtoestimatetherisktoindividualsorpopulations,propertyortheenvironment”)–Riskevaluation(“Processinwhichjudgmentsaremadeonthetolerabilityoftheriskonthebasisofriskanalysisandtakingintoaccountfactorssuchassocio-economicandenvironmentalaspects”)?Riskreduction/control(Decisionmaking,implementationandriskmonitoring).Thereexistsnocommondefinitionofrisk,butforinstanceIEC60300-3-9definesriskasa“combinationofthefrequency,orprobability,ofoccurrenceandtheconsequenceofaspecifiedhazardousevents”.Mostdefinitionscomprisetheelementsofprobabilitiesandconsequences.However,someasKlinkeandRennsuggestaverywidedefinition,stating:“Riskreferstothepossibilitythathumanactionsoreventsleadtoconsequencesthataffectaspectsofwhathumansvalue”.Sothetotalriskcomprisesthepossibilityofnumber(“all”)unwanted/hazardousevents.Itispartoftheriskanalysistodelimitwhichhazardstoinclude.Further,riskusuallyreferstothreatsinthefuture,involvinga(high)degreeofuncertainty.Inthefollowingwewillpresentthebasicelementsofriskmanagementasitisproposedtobeanintegralpartofprojectmanagement.2.1ProjectobjectivesandcriteriaInclassicalriskanalysisofindustrialsystemstheuseofso-calledriskacceptancecriteriahasplayedacentralroleinthelasttwoortreedecades.Basicallyuseofriskacceptancecriteriameansthatsomesevereconsequencesaredefined,e.g.accidentwithfatalities.Thenwetrytosetanupperlimitfortheprobabilityoftheseconsequencesthatcouldbeaccepted,i.e.wecouldnotaccepthigherprobabilitiesinanysituations.Furthertheseprobabilitiescouldonlybeacceptedifriskreductionisnotpossible,orthecostofriskreductionisveryhigh.Inrecentyearsithasbeenadiscussionintheriskanalysissocietywhetheritisfruitfulornottouseriskacceptancecriteriaaccordingtotheprinciplesabove.Itisarguedthatveryoftenriskacceptancecriteriaaresetarbitrary,andthesedonotnecessarilysupporttheoverallbestsolutions.Therefore,itcouldbemorefruitfultousesomekindofriskevaluationcriteria,ratherthanstrictacceptancecriteria.Inprojectriskmanagementwecouldestablishacceptancecriteriarelatedtotwotypesofevents:?Eventswithsevereconsequencesrelatedtohealth,environmentandsafety.?Eventswithsevereconsequencesrelatedtoprojectcosts,projectquality,projectduration,oreventerminationoftheproject.Inthiscoursewewillhavemainfocusontheprojectcostsandthedurationoftheproject.Notethatbothprojectcostandprojectdurationarestochasticvariablesandnotevents.Thusitisnotpossibletoestablishacceptancecriteriatoprojectcostordurationdirectly.Basically,therearethreetypesofnumericvalueswecouldintroduceinrelationtosuchstochasticvariablesdescribingtheproject:1.Target.Thetargetexpressesourambitionsintheproject.Thetargetshallbesomethingwearestrivingat,anditshouldbepossibletoreachthetarget.Itispossibletointroduce(internal)bonuses,orotherrewardsinordertoreachthetargetsinaproject.2.Expectation.Theexpectationsarethevaluethestochasticvariableswillachieveinthelongrun,orourexpectationabouttheoutcome.Theexpectationislessambitiousthanthetarget.Theexpectationwillinarealisticwayaccountforhazards,andthreatsandconditionswhichoftencontributetothefactthatthetargetsarenotmet.3.Commitment.Thecommitmentsarevaluesrelatedtothestochasticvariableswhichareregulatedinagreementsandcontracts.Forexampleitcouldbestatedinthecontractthatanewbridgeshallbecompletedwithinagivendate.Ifwearenotabletofulfillthecommitments,thiswillusuallyresultineconomicalconsequences,forexamplepenaltiesfordefaults,orintheworstcasecancelingofthecontract.2.2RiskidentificationAscenarioisadescriptionofaimaginedsequenceorchainofevents,e.g.wehaveawaterleakage,andwearenotabletostopthisleakagewithordinarytighteningmediumduetothepossibleenvironmentalaspectswhichisnotclarifiedatthemoment.Furtherthegreenmovementisalsolikelytoenterthesceneinthiscase.Ahazardistypicallyrelatedtoenergies,poisonousmediaetc,andiftheyarereleasedthiswillresultinanaccidentorasevereevent.Athreatisawidertermthanhazard,andweincludealsoaspectsas“wrong”methodapplied,“l(fā)ackofcompetenceandexperience”.Thetermthreatisalsoveryoftenusedinconnectionwithsecurityproblems,e.g.sabotage,terrorism,andvandalism.2.3StructuringandmodelingofriskInSection2.2wehaveidentifiedmethodstoidentifyeventsandthreats.Wenowwanttorelatetheseeventsandthreatstotheexplicitmodelswehaveforprojectcostsandprojectduration.2.3.1Modelforprojectexecutiontime/schedulemodelingWhenanalyzingtheexecutiontimeforaprojectwewillhaveaprojectplanandtypicallyaGanttdiagramasastartingpoint.TheGanttdiagramistransformedintoaso-calledflownetworkwheretheconnectionsbetweentheactivitiesareexplicitlydescribed.Suchaflownetworkalsocomprisesdescriptionofdurationoftheactivitiesintermsofprobabilitystatements.ThedurationofeachactivityisstochasticVariables,whichwedenoteTiforactivityinaflownetworkwemightalsohaveuncertainactivitieswhichwillbecarriedoutonlyunderspecialconditions.Theseconditionscouldbedescribedintermsofevents,andweneedtodescribetheprobabilityofoccurrenceofsuchevents.Thus,thereisasetofquantities,i.e.timevariablesandeventsinthemodel.TheobjectiveisnowtolinktheundesiredeventsandthreatsdiscussedinSection2.2tothesetimevariablesandevents.Timevariablesaredescribedbyaprobabilitydistributionfunction.Suchadistributionfunctioncomprisesparametersthatcharacterizethetimevariable.OftenaparametricprobabilitydistributionisdescribedbythethreequantitiesL(low),M(mostlikely)andHhigh.Ifanundesiredeventoccur,itislikelythatthevaluesofL,MandHwillbehigherthanincasethiseventdoesnotoccur.AwaytoincludetheresultfromtheriskidentificationprocessisthentoexpressthedifferentvaluesofL,MandHdependingonwhetherthecriticaleventoccursornot.Ifweinadditionareabletoassesstheprobabilityofoccurrenceofthecriticalevent,theknowledgeaboutthiscriticaleventhasbeencompletelyincludedintotheriskmodel.Basedonsuchanexplicitmodelingofthecriticalevent,wecouldalsoeasilyupdatethemodelincaseofnewinformationaboutthecriticaleventisobtained,forexamplenewinformationcouldbeavailableatalaterstageintheprocessandchangesoftheplancouldstillbepossibleinlightofthenewinformation.2.3.2CostmodelingThecostmodelisusuallybasedonthecostbreakdownstructure,andthecostelementswillagainbefunctionsoflaborcost,overtimecost,purchaseprice,hourcostofrentingequipment,materialcost,amountofmaterialetc.Theprobabilisticmodelingofcostisusuallyeasierthanformodelingprojectexecutiontime.Theprincipleisjusttoaddalotofcostterms,whereeachcosttermistheproductoftheunitpriceandthenumberofunits.Weintroducepriceandvolumeasstochasticvariablestodescribetheunitpriceandthenumberofunits.ThepriceandvolumevariablesshouldalsobelinkedtotheundesiredeventsandthreatswehaveidentifiedinSection2.2.Oftenitisnecessarytolinkthecostmodeltotheschedulemodel.Forexampleincaseofdelaysitmightbenecessarytoputmoreeffortintotheprojecttocatchupwiththeproblems,andtheseeffortscouldbeverycostly.Also,iftheprojectisdelayedwemayneedtopayextracosttosub-contractorsthathavetopostponetheirsupportintotheproject.2.3.3UncertaintyinscheduleandcostmodelingAsindicatedabovewewillestablishprobabilisticmodelstodescribethedurationandcostofaproject.Theresultofsuchaprobabilisticmodelingisthatwetreatthedurationandcostasstochasticvariables.Sincedurationandcostsarestochasticvariables,thismeansthatthereisuncertaintyregardingthevaluestheywilltakeintherealprojectweareevaluating.Sometimeswesplitthisuncertaintyintothreedifferentcategories,i)Aleatoryuncertainty(variabilityduetoe.g.weatherconditions,laborconflicts,breakdownofmachinesetc.),ii)parameterorepistemicuncertaintyduetolackofknowledgeabout“true”parametervalues,andiii)modeluncertaintyduetolackofdetailed,orwrongmodeling.Undersuchthinking,thealeatoryuncertaintycouldnotbereduced;itisbelievedtobetheresultofthevariabilityintheworldwhichwecannotcontrol.Uncertaintyintheparametersis,however,believedtobereduciblebycollectingmoreinformation.Alsouncertaintyinthemodelsisbelievedtobereduciblebymoredetailedmodeling,anddecompositionofthevariouselementsthatgointothemodel.Itisappealingtohaveamentalmodelwheretheuncertaintycouldbesplitintoonepartwhichwemightnotreduce(variability),andonepartwhichwemightreducebythoroughanalysisandmoreinvestigation(increasedknowledge).Ifweareabletodemonstratethatthepartoftheuncertaintyrelatedtolackofknowledgeandunderstandinghasbeenreducedtoasufficientdegree,wecouldthenclaimhighconfidenceintheanalysis.Insomesituationtheownerortheauthoritiesputforwardrequirements.Whichcouldbeinterpretedasconfidenceregardingthequalityoftheanalysis?Itisthoughnotalwaysclearwhatismeantbysuchaconfidencelevel.Asanexample,letE(C)betheexpectedcostofaproject.Aconfidencestatementcouldnowbeformulatedas“TheprobabilitythattheactualprojectcostiswithinanintervalE(C)±10%shouldatleastbe70%”.Itis,however,notstraightforwardtodocumentsuchaconfidencelevelinarealanalysis.The“Successiveprocess(trinnvisprosessen)”[4]isanattempttodemonstratehowtoreducethe“uncertainty”intheresulttoacertainlevelofconfidence.WealsomentionthatEven[12]hasrecentlyquestionedsuchanapproachwherethereexistmodeluncertaintyandparameteruncertainty,andemphasizesthatweintheanalysisshouldfocusontheobservablequantitieswhichwillbecomeevidentforusiftheprojectisexecuted,e.g.thecosts,andthatuncertaintyinthesequantitiesrepresentthelackofknowledgeaboutwhichvaluestheywilltakeinthefuture.Thisdiscussionisnotpursuitanymoreinthispresentation.2.4Riskelementsforfollowup:RiskandopportunityregisterAsriskelementsandthreatsareidentifiedinSection2.2thesehavetobecontrolledasfaraspossible.Itisnotsufficienttoidentifytheseconditionsandmodeltheminthescheduleandcostmodels,wealsohavetomitigatetheriskelementsandthreats.Inordertoensureasystematicfollowupofriskelementsandthreatsitisrecommendedtoestablishaso-calledthreatlog.Theterms’RiskRegister‘a(chǎn)nd’Risk&OpportunityRegister‘(R&OR)issometimesusedratherthantheterm’threatlog.‘AR&ORisbestmanagedbyadatabasesolution,forexampleanMS-AccessDatabase.Eachrowinthedatabaserepresentsoneriskelementorthreat.Thefieldsinsuchadatabasecouldvary,butthefollowingfieldsseemsreasonable:?ID.Anidentifierisrequiredinordertokeeptrackofthethreatinrelationtothequantitativeriskmodels,tofollowupactionsET.?Description.Adescriptionofthethreatisnecessaryinordertounderstandthecontentoftheproblem.Itcouldbenecessarytostatetheimmediateconsequences(e.g.occupationalaccident),butalsoconsequencesintermsofthemainobjectivesoftheproject,e.g.timeandcosts.?Likelihoodorprobability.Ajudgmentregardinghowprobableitisthatthethreatortheriskconditionwillbereleasedintermsofe.g.undesiredorcriticalevents.?Impact.Ifpossible,giveadirectimpactoncostandscheduleiftheeventoccurs,eitherbyanexpectedimpact,orbyL,MandHvalues.?Referencestocostandschedule.InordertoupdatethescheduleandcostmodelsitisconvenienttogiveanexplicitreferencefromtheR&ORintothescheduleandcostmodels.?Manageability.Hereitisdescriedhowthethreatcouldbeinfluenced,eitherbyimplementingmeasurestoeliminatethethreatpriortoitrevealsitself,ormeasuresinordertoreducetheconsequencesincaseofthethreatwillmaterialize.?Alertinformation.Itisimportanttobeawareofinformationthatcouldindicatethedevelopmentofthethreatbeforeiteventuallywillmaterialize.Ifsuchinformationisavailablewecouldimplementrelevantmeasuresifnecessary.Forexampleitcouldbepossibletotakegroundsamplesatacertaincost,bututilizingtheinformationfromsuchsamplescouldenableustochooseappropriatemethodsfortunnelpenetration.?Measures.Listofmeasuresthatcouldbeimplementedtoreducetherisk.?Deadlineandresponsible.Identificationofwhoisresponsibleforimplementingandfollowupofthemeasureorthreat,andanydeadlines.?Status.Bothwithrespecttothethreatandanymeasureitisvaluabletospecifythedevelopment,i.e.didthetreatrevealitselfintoundesiredeventswithunwantedconsequences,didthemeasureplayanypositiveeffectetc.2.5CorrectionandcontrolAstheprojectdevelopstheR&ORistheprimarycontroltoolforriskfollowup.Byfollowingthestatusofthevariousthreats,riskelementsandmeasureswecouldmonitortheriskintheproject.Thisinformationshouldofcoursebelinkedtothetimeandcostplans.Ifagiventhreatdoesnotrevealintermsofundesiredevents,thetimeandcostestimatescouldbeloweredandthisgaincouldbeutilizedinotherpartoftheproject,orinotherprojects.Intheoppositesituationitisnecessarytoincreasethetimeandcostestimates,andweneedtoconsidernewmeasures,andmaybespendsomeofthereservestocatchupincaseofanexpecteddelay.Duringthelifecycleofaprojectitwilloccurnewthreatsandriskelementswhichwedidnotforeseeintheinitialriskidentificationprocess.SuchthreatsmustcontinuouslybeenteredintotheR&OR,andmeasuresneedtobeconsidered.一、介紹（一）關(guān)于本綱要本課程綱要過程中研究的是“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是一種項(xiàng)目”。重點(diǎn)將是就以下議題：?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型中光的時(shí)間表和成本模型?風(fēng)險(xiǎn)跟進(jìn)我們也將討論相關(guān)的決策分析，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)涉及的元素，并使用生命周期成本和生命周期的盈利模式來介紹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的具體內(nèi)容。（二）定義1.偶然的不確定性。我們有時(shí)會(huì)使用這個(gè)詞表示數(shù)量的變化。2.認(rèn)知的不確定性，缺乏知識(shí)的“世界”，特別是觀察到的數(shù)量。3.依據(jù)，在一個(gè)項(xiàng)目中的活動(dòng)的序列之間的關(guān)系。4.觀察到的數(shù)量，一定量的需要表達(dá)的狀態(tài)，即對(duì)物理現(xiàn)實(shí)的數(shù)量或性質(zhì)，是未知的時(shí)間分析，在未來，如果被分析的系統(tǒng)實(shí)施，可能成為眾所周知的。5.參數(shù)，我們使用的術(shù)語以兩種方式在本報(bào)告的參數(shù)。參數(shù)的主要用途是，它是一個(gè)量是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析模型的一部分并且是我們指定數(shù)值。更多學(xué)術(shù)有關(guān)可觀察到的數(shù)量。6.參數(shù)估計(jì)，我們?cè)u(píng)估的一個(gè)參數(shù)的數(shù)值。7.可能性，一種衡量事件的不確定性。8.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指三個(gè)問題：I）什么可以去做了嗎？II）項(xiàng)目的可能性有多大呢？，III）如果它出了問題，后果是什么？9.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受，決定接受的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。10.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受準(zhǔn)則，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)被評(píng)估為可接受或不可接受的參考。11.時(shí)間表，該計(jì)劃規(guī)定的活動(dòng)時(shí)間在一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的開始和完成點(diǎn)。12.隨機(jī)依賴，兩個(gè)或更多個(gè)隨機(jī)變量（隨機(jī)）依賴的期望的一個(gè)隨機(jī)變量，如果依賴于其他的一個(gè)或多個(gè)隨機(jī)變量的值。二、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理一般來說，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理（IEC60300-3-9）定義為“系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用程序的管理政策，程序和做法的分析，評(píng)估和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”的任務(wù)。這將包括（IEC定義在括號(hào)中）：——風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，系統(tǒng)利用現(xiàn)有的信息，以識(shí)別危險(xiǎn)，并估計(jì)個(gè)體或群體，財(cái)產(chǎn)或環(huán)境的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！L(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，評(píng)估過程中，判斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的耐受性是在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的基礎(chǔ)上，考慮的因素，如社會(huì)，經(jīng)濟(jì)和環(huán)境方面的?！獪p少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/控制（決策，執(zhí)行和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控）。存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但并無統(tǒng)一的定義，例如IEC60300-3-9風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義為“相結(jié)合的頻率或概率，發(fā)生的后果某一特定危險(xiǎn)事件。大多數(shù)定義包括概率和后果的元素。雷恩提出一個(gè)很廣泛的定義，他表示：“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是指可能人的行動(dòng)或事件導(dǎo)致的后果，影響人類重視的方面因此，總的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括（“全部”）不想要的/危險(xiǎn)事件的可能性。這是界定哪些危害進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的一部分。此外，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)通常是指在未來的威脅，涉及的不確定性。在下面的建議是項(xiàng)目管理的一個(gè)組成部分，我們將介紹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本要素。（一）項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在古典風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的工業(yè)系統(tǒng)使用所謂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受準(zhǔn)則發(fā)揮了核心的作用，在過去的兩年或幾十年。基本上使用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受準(zhǔn)則定義了一些嚴(yán)重的后果，例如死亡事故。然后，我們嘗試設(shè)置一個(gè)上限可以接受這些后果的概率，即較高的概率在任何情況下，我們不能接受。此外，這些可能性只能接受降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是不可能的，或降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成本是非常高的。在最近幾年中，它一直是討論在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的方面是富有成果的，或不根據(jù)上述原則，使用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受準(zhǔn)則。有人認(rèn)為，很多時(shí)候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受準(zhǔn)則任意設(shè)定，而這些不一定是支持風(fēng)險(xiǎn)接受的最佳整體解決方案。因此，它可能是使用起來更加豐碩的成果。一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而不是嚴(yán)格的驗(yàn)收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。在項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中，我們可以建立兩種類型的事件相關(guān)的驗(yàn)收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)：?關(guān)系到健康，環(huán)境和安全的嚴(yán)重后果的事件。?事件相關(guān)的項(xiàng)目成本，項(xiàng)目質(zhì)量，工期，甚至終止項(xiàng)目的嚴(yán)重后果。在這個(gè)過程中，我們將主要集中在項(xiàng)目成本和項(xiàng)目的持續(xù)時(shí)間。需要注意的是這兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目的成本和項(xiàng)目時(shí)間是隨機(jī)變量，而不是事件。因此，它是無法確定驗(yàn)收標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的項(xiàng)目直接成本或持續(xù)時(shí)間。基本上，有三種類型的數(shù)值，我們可以引入在關(guān)系到項(xiàng)目的隨機(jī)變量來描述：1．目標(biāo)，在該項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)應(yīng)是我們正在努力，應(yīng)該是可以達(dá)到的目標(biāo)。引入獎(jiǎng)金或其他獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)以達(dá)到項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)是可能的。2．期望，期望是隨機(jī)變量，將實(shí)現(xiàn)從長遠(yuǎn)來看，我們期望的結(jié)果。預(yù)期是做出這樣那樣雄心勃勃的目標(biāo)。預(yù)期將是克服危害的現(xiàn)實(shí)途徑，威脅和經(jīng)常作出貢獻(xiàn)的事實(shí)，各項(xiàng)指標(biāo)均滿足的條件。3．承諾，承諾有關(guān)的協(xié)議和合同監(jiān)管的隨機(jī)變量，這些變量的值。例如，它可以在合同中注明之內(nèi)完成一個(gè)給定的日期，一種新的聯(lián)系。如果我們不能夠履行的承諾，這通常會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)后果，例如違約處罰，或在最壞的情況下取消該合同。（二）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別不期望的事件是可能發(fā)生的，例如大的水泄漏在隧道里。情景是一個(gè)想象的事件的序列或鏈的描述，如我們有一個(gè)漏水的，我們是不能夠阻止這與普通緊縮可能對(duì)環(huán)境方面的不明確的時(shí)刻，由于介質(zhì)泄漏。此外，綠色運(yùn)動(dòng)在這種情況下，也有可能進(jìn)入現(xiàn)場。通常是一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的能量，有毒介質(zhì)等，如果他們被釋放，這將導(dǎo)致事故或嚴(yán)重的事件。威脅是一個(gè)更廣泛的長期危險(xiǎn)，我們還包括“錯(cuò)誤”的方法應(yīng)用的方面，“缺乏能力和經(jīng)驗(yàn)”。長期威脅也很常使用的安全問題，例如：破壞，恐怖主義和破壞行為。（三）構(gòu)建與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建模在（二）節(jié)中，我們已經(jīng)確定的方法來識(shí)別事件和威脅?，F(xiàn)在我們要與這些事件和威脅，我們有明確的模式，項(xiàng)目成本和項(xiàng)目工期。1.模型項(xiàng)目執(zhí)行時(shí)間/日程建模當(dāng)分析一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的執(zhí)行時(shí)間，我們將有一個(gè)典型的項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃和甘特圖作為出發(fā)點(diǎn)。被變換成一個(gè)所謂的流動(dòng)之間的活動(dòng)連接的網(wǎng)絡(luò)中明確描述的甘特圖。這樣的流網(wǎng)絡(luò)還包括持續(xù)時(shí)間在概率語