國家風(fēng)險評估及管理教材

第十一講國家風(fēng)險評估及管理ChapterObjectivesToidentifythecommonfactorsusedbyMNCstomeasureacountry’spoliticalriskandfinancialrisk;Toexplainthetechniquesusedtomeasurecountryrisk;andToexplainhowMNCsusetheassessmentofcountryriskwhenmakingfinancialdecisions.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportant１.DefinitionofPoliticalrisk istheriskthatthebusinessenvironmentinahostcountrywillchangeunexpectedlyoristhepotentiallyadverseimpactofacountry’senvironmentonanMNC’scashflows(國家風(fēng)險指東道國的商業(yè)環(huán)境發(fā)生非預(yù)期的變化，從而對跨國公司的價值產(chǎn)生影響。〕2.SomeAdverseImpacts:a.Aterroristattackb.Amajorlaborstrikeinanindustryc.Apoliticalcrisisduetoascandalwithinacountryd.Concernaboutacountry’sbankingsystemthatmaycauseamajoroutflowoffundse.Theimpositionoftraderestrictionsonimports３.Countryriskanalysiscanbeused:tomonitorcountrieswheretheMNCiscurrentlydoingbusiness;asascreeningdevicetoavoidconductingbusinessincountrieswithexcessiverisk;andtoreviseitsinvestmentorfinancingdecisionsinlightofrecentevents.WhyCountryRiskAnalysisIsImportantthecompaniesthatassesscountryrisk.Politicalrisk〔政治風(fēng)險〕istheriskthatasovereignhostgovernmentwillunexpectedlychangetherulesofthegameunderwhichbusinessesoperatePoliticalrisksarisebecauseofunexpectedchangesinthepoliticalenvironmentwithinahostcountryorintherelationshipofahostcountrytoanothercountry.Financialrisk〔財務(wù)風(fēng)險〕refersmoregenerallytounexpectedeventsinacountry’sfinancial,economic,orbusinesslifeFinancialriskisdeterminedbyahostoffinancialandeconomicfactors,someofwhicharerelatedtolocalpoliticalrisk.PoliticalRiskFactorsA.AttitudeofconsumersinthehostcountrySomeconsumersareveryloyaltolocallymanufacturedproducts.B.ActionsofhostgovernmentThehostgovernmentmayimposespecialrequirementsortaxes,restrictfundtransfers,andsubsidizelocalfirms.MNCscanalsobehurtbyalackofrestrictions,suchasfailuretoenforcecopyrightlaws.PoliticalRiskFactorsC.BlockageofFundTransfersFundsthatareblockedmaynotbeoptimallyused.Iffundtransfersareblocked,subsidiarieswillhavetoundertakeprojectsthatmaynotbeoptimalfortheMNC.D.CurrencyInconvertibilityTheMNCparentmayneedtoexchangeearningsforgoodsiftheforeigncurrencycannotbechangedintoothercurrenciesE.WarInternalandexternalbattles,oreventhethreatofwar,canhavedevastatingeffects.The2024WarinIraqF.Bureaucracy(官僚〕Bureaucracycancomplicatebusinesses.G.Corruption〔腐敗〕Corruptioncanincreasethecostofconductingbusinessorreducerevenue.PoliticalRiskFactorsCorruptionPerceptionsIndexTheindex,whichispublishedbyTransparencyInternational,reflectsthedegreetowhichcorruptionisperceivedtoexistamongpublicofficialsandpoliticians.In2001,91countriesarerankedonacleanscoreof10.RankCountryScore 1 Finland 9.9 3 NewZealand 9.4 4 Singapore 9.2 7 Canada 8.9 13 U.K. 8.3 14 HongKong 7.9 16 Israel 7.6 16 U.S.A. 7.6 18 Chile 7.5 20 Germany 7.4 21 Japan 7.1RankCountryScore 23 France 6.7 26 Botswana 6.0 27 Taiwan 5.9 38 SouthAfrica 4.8 42 SouthKorea 4.2 46 Brazil 4.0 51 Mexico 3.7 57 Argentina 3.5 57 China 3.5 79 Russia 2.3 88 Indonesia 1.9CorruptionIndexRatingsforSelectedCountriesMaximumrating=10.Highratingsindicatelowcorruption.FindoutmoreaboutTransparencyInternationalandtheCorruptionPerceptionsIndexbyvisiting/documents/cpi/2001/cpi2001.html.OnlineApplicationFinancialRiskFactorsA.CurrentandPotentialStateoftheCountry’sEconomyArecessioncanseverelyreducedemand.FinancialdistresscanalsocausethegovernmenttorestrictMNCoperations.B.IndicatorsofEconomicGrowthAcountry’seconomicgrowthisdependentonseveralfinancialfactors-interestrates,exchangerates,inflation,etc.ExamplesofpoliticalrisksExpropriationrisk〔征用風(fēng)險〕–AssetshavebeenexpropriatedafterrevolutionsinIranandChile.Disruptionsinoperations〔經(jīng)營中斷風(fēng)險〕-changesinlawsorregulations..muchmorecommonthanexpropriationandcanhappeneveninpeacetime.Protectionism〔貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義風(fēng)險〕-e.g.,“buyAmerican.〞Protectionismcanaffectlocalconsumption.Blockedfunds〔資金轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險〕-fundsthatcannotbeimmediatelyremittedtotheparentcompany.Lossofintellectualpropertyrights〔知識產(chǎn)權(quán)風(fēng)險〕-particularlyproblematicindevelopingandtransitionaleconomiessuchasChinaandtheformerstatesoftheSovietUnion.ExamplesoffinancialrisksCurrencyriskInterestrateriskInflationriskUnexpectedchangesinthecurrentaccountbalanceUnexpectedchangesinthebalanceoftradePoliticalRiskServices’InternationalCountryRiskGuide〔國際國家風(fēng)險指南〕includesthefollowingassessmentsintheirfinancialriskindex.LoandefaultsorloanrestructuringsPaymentdelaysCancellationsofcontractsbyahostgovernmentLossesfromexchangecontrolsExpropriationofprivateinvestmentsWhatarethepoliticalandfinancialoutlookforvariouscountries?OnlineApplicationConsulttheCountryCommercialGuidespreparedbyembassystaffathttp://www./website/ccg.nsf/ccghomepage?openform.RefertotheCIA’sWorldFactbookathttp://www./.Visit/ifc/TypesofCountryRiskAssessment１.MacroassessmentofCountryRiskMacrorisks——affectallfirmsinahostcountry(指在東道國整個國家范圍內(nèi)發(fā)生的影響到所有企業(yè)的風(fēng)險，如東道國的財政和貨幣政策、銀行系統(tǒng)、稅率、資本管制、匯率等的突然變化。〕 a.CharacteristicsoftheCountry: 1.)Politicalfactors 2.)Financialfactors b.UncertaintySurroundingaMacroassessment2.MicroassessmentofCountryRiskMicrorisks——specifictoanindustry,firmorprojectinacountry〔指僅對某一特定行業(yè)或企業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響的風(fēng)險，如移民政策的突然改變對大量使用外來勞動力的企業(yè)造成的影響?！砊heoverallassessmentthusconsistsofmacropoliticalrisk,macrofinancialrisk,micropoliticalrisk,andmicrofinancialrisk.AssessmentsofcountryrisksBankofAmericaBusinessEnvironmentRiskIntelligenceControlRisksInformationServicesDunandBradstreetEconomistIntelligenceUnitEuromoney

InstitutionalInvestorMoody’sInvestorServicesOrgforEconCo-operationandDevelopmentPoliticalRiskServicesStandardandPoor’sCountryrisks

Africa

Asia

Europe

MidEast

AmericasA1 Australia Switzerland Canada UKA2 Botswana HKJapan Germany Kuwait USA S.Korea Italy UAEA3 Mauritius China Cyprus Israel Chile Namibia Thailand CzechRep TrinidadA4 Egypt India Latvia Saudi Mexico S.Africa Philippines Poland Arabia PanamaB Algeria Bangladesh Slovakia Egypt BrazilPeru Uganda SriLanka Russia Jordan VenezuelaC Congo Indonesia Azerbaijan IranSyria Haiti Kenya Vietnam Romania Turkey JamaicaD Nigeria Afghanistan Albania Iraq Argentina Sudan N.Korea Ukraine Cuba Zimbabwe Pakistan Yugoslavia EcuadorTechniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskAchecklistapproach〔清單法〕involvesratingandweightingalltheidentifiedfactors,andthenconsolidatingtheratesandweightstoproduceanoverallassessment.TheDelphitechnique〔德爾菲法〕involvescollectingvariousindependentopinionsandthenaveragingandmeasuringthedispersionofthoseopinions.Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskQuantitativeanalysis〔定量分析法〕techniqueslikeregressionanalysiscanbeappliedtohistoricaldatatoassessthesensitivityofabusinesstovariousriskfactors.Inspectionvisits〔參觀視察法〕involvetravelingtoacountryandmeetingwithgovernmentofficials,firmexecutives,and/orconsumerstoclarifyuncertainties.Often,firmsuseavarietyoftechniquesformakingcountryriskassessments.Forexample,theymayusethechecklistapproachtodevelopanoverallcountryriskrating,andsomeoftheothertechniquestoassignratingstothefactors.例如，國際國家風(fēng)險指南〔ICRG〕，設(shè)置了一個加權(quán)平均指數(shù)來反映國家風(fēng)險，該指數(shù)由50%的政治風(fēng)險指標(biāo)、25%的金融風(fēng)險指標(biāo)和25%的經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險指標(biāo)構(gòu)成。Techniquesof

AssessingCountryRiskMeasuringCountryRiskThechecklistapproachinvolves:Assigningvaluesandweightstopoliticalandfinancialriskfactors,Multiplyingthefactorvalueswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethepoliticalandfinancialriskratings,Assigningweightstotheriskratings,andMultiplyingtheratingswiththeirweights,andsumminguptogivethecountryriskrating.CougarCo.:

DeterminingtheOverallCountryRiskRatingCougarCo.:

DerivationoftheOverallCountryRiskRating注意：Theproceduresforquantifyingcountryriskwillvarywiththeassessor,thecountrybeingassessed,aswellasthetypeofoperationsbeingplanned.Firmsusecountryriskratingswhenscreeningpotentialprojects,andwhenmonitoringexistingprojects.MeasuringCountryRiskAdjustmentoftheDiscountRateThehighertheperceivedrisk,thehigherthediscountratethatshouldbeappliedtotheproject’scashflows.AdjustmentoftheEstimatedCashFlowsByestimatinghowthecashflowscouldbeaffectedbyeachformofrisk,theMNCcandeterminetheprobabilitydistributionofthenetpresentvalueoftheproject.IncorporatingCountryRiskinCapitalBudgetingImpactofCountryRiskonanMNC’sValue E(CFj,t) = expectedcashflowsincurrencyjtobereceivedbytheU.S.parentattheendofperiodt E(ERj,t) = expectedexchangerateatwhichcurrencyjcanbeconvertedtodollarsattheendofperiodt k = weightedaveragecostofcapitaloftheparentExposureofForeignProjectstoCountryRisksStrategiesformanagingcountryrisk1. Negotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheinvestmentenvironmentThefinancialenvironment2. Structureforeignoperationstominimizecountryriskwhilemaximizingreturn3. ObtainpoliticalriskissuranceStrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiatetheenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestment〔與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)配合〕TheInvestmentEnvironmentcanbeagreedtoinanInvestmentagreementthatspecifiestherightsandobligationsoftheparties:Taxes(e.g.,duties,tariffs,taxholidays)Laborissues(e.g.,useofexpatriatemanagers)Concessions(e.g.,privilegedaccesstorestrictedmarkets)Obligations(e.g.,tie-inprojects)Restrictions(e.g.,onimportsorexportstoothermarkets)ProvisionsforplannedinvestmentdivestiturePerformanceassurancesonthepartofthehostgovernmentRemediesagainstdelayorexpropriationProvisionsandvenuesforinternationalarbitrationofdisputesStrategiesformanagingcountryriskNegotiate

theenvironmentwiththehostcountrypriortoinvestmentTheFinancialEnvironment:Cashflowremittance

(managementfees,royalties,loanrepayments,dividends,transferpricing)Accesstocapitalmarketsinthehostcountry,includinganyownershiprestrictionsPossibilityofsubsidizedfinancingfromthehostgovernmentCorporate

governanceenvironmentRemediesincaseofcorporatenonperformanceorgovernmentdefault,includingprovisionsandvenuesfortheinternationalarbitrationofdisputesStructureforeignoperationstominimizeriskwhilemaximizingreturnLimitthescopeoftechnologytransfertoforeignaffiliatestoincludeonlynon-essentialpartsoftheproductionprocessLimitdependenceonanysinglepartnerEnlistlocalpartnersUsemorestringentinvestmentcriteriaPlanfordisasterrecoveryStrategiesformanagingcountryriskReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversThebenefitsofDFIcanbeoffsetbycountryrisk,themostsevereofwhichisahostgovernmenttakeover.Toreducethechanceofatakeoverbythehostgovernment,firmsoftenusethefollowingstrategies:UseaShort-TermHorizonThistechniqueconcentratesonrecoveringcashflowquickly.ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversRelyonUniqueSuppliesorTechnologyInthisway,thehostgovernmentwillnotbeabletotakeoverandoperatethesubsidiarysuccessfully.HireLocalLabor聘請本地勞工Thelocalemployeescanapplypressureontheirgovernment.BorrowLocalFundsThelocalbankscanapplypressureontheirgovernment.PurchaseInsuranceInvestmentguaranteeprogramsofferedbythehomecountry母國,hostcountry,oraninternationalagencyinsuretosomeextentvariousformsofcountryrisk.ReducingExposure

toHostGovernmentTakeoversPoliticalriskinsuranceInsurablepoliticalrisksincludeExpropriation〔征用〕duetowarrevolutioninsurrection暴動civildisturbance內(nèi)亂terrorismRepatriationrestrictions遣返限制PoliticalriskinsurersGovernmentexportcreditagenciesU.S.OverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporationU.K.ExportCreditsGuaranteeDepartmentInternationalWorldBank

MultilateralInvestmentGua