奧緯咨詢+共享出行的全球影響-英

SHAREDMOBILIT

Y

’SGLOBAL

IMPAC

TAneconomic,socialandenvironmentalanalysisIndependent

Study

Commissioned

by

BoltSharedMobility'sGlobalImpactQUALIFICATIONS,

ASSUMPTIONS,

AND

LIMITING

CONDITIONSOliver

Wyman

shall

not

have

any

liability

toany

third

party

in

respect

of

this

report

or

any

actions

taken

or

decisions

madeas

aconsequence

of

the

results,

advice

or

recommendations

set

forth

herein.The

opinions

expressed

herein

are

valid

only

for

the

purpose

stated

herein

and

as

of

the

date

hereof.

Informationfurnished

by

others,

upon

which

all

or

portions

of

this

report

are

based,

is

believed

tobe

reliable

but

has

not

beenveri?ed.

No

warranty

is

given

as

tothe

accuracy

of

such

information.

Public

information

and

industry

and

statistical

dataare

from

sources

Oliver

Wyman

deems

tobe

reliable;

however,Oliver

Wyman

makes

no

representation

as

tothe

accuracyor

completeness

of

such

information

and

has

accepted

the

information

without

further

veri?cation.

No

responsibility

istaken

for

changes

in

market

conditions

or

laws

or

regulations

and

no

obligation

is

assumed

torevise

this

report

tore?ectchanges,

events

or

conditions,

which

occur

subsequent

tothe

date

hereof.?OliverWymaniiCONTENTSExecutivesummary15IntroductionChapter

1:

Theshared

mobilityindustryChapter

2:Economic

impact7122.1

Incomeopportunities1318272.2

Focus

topic:

Driving

for

ride-hailing

services2.3

Indirect

economice?ectsChapter

3:Socialimpact353.1

A?ordability

ofsharedmobility3.2

Accessibility

ofsharedmobility3.3

Safety

ofsharedmobility374548Chapter

4:Environmental

impact544.1

Environmental

impact

ofchangesinmodalmix4.2

Impact

assessment:

Singularmobility

modes4.3

Impact

assessment:

Multimodality565961Conclusion7073Appendix:CityarchetypesMethodology

andoverview

ofcity

archetypesStatus

quoassessment

ofcity

archetypesThe

road

forward:

Optimization

ofsharedmobility

impactDeep-dive:

Berlin,

anactive

mobility

cityDeep-dive:

Lagos,

anemergingcity7577818489Endnotes101Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|IntroductionEXECUTIVE

SUMMARY?OliverWyman1Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|ExecutiveSummaryToday,

morethan4billionpeopleliveincities.By

2050,theUnitedNations(UN)

estimates

that

this

numberwill

grow

to

6

billion

(70%

ofthe

worldpopulation)

andthat

cities

will

accountfor

85%

ofthe

world’s

economicoutput.1

This

expansion

ishavinga

critical

impact

onurban

transportsystems.

Whileeconomicgrowth

andurbanizationcontinue,onlyhalfofthe

world’s

population

currently

has

convenient

accessto

publictransport.2Thislimitsaccesstojobs,education,andoverallsocialinclusion—unlessan

individual

can

a?ordto

travel

bycar—

in

which

case

they

are

likelycontributingtocongestion,pollutionandgreenhousegasemissions.Authorities,

institutional

bodies

andother

stakeholders

nowseek

amoresustainable

modelwhich

can

solve

transport

hurdleswith

e?cient

long-term

urban

planning.Sharedmobility(encompassingride-hailing,

car-sharing,e-bikes

ande-scooters)

hasemerged

asapotentialsolution

o?ering

sustainable,

e?cient,

safe

anda?ordable

transport

ondemand.Sharedmobility

isprojected

tocontinueits

rapidgrowth

andmorethandoubleits

shareoftheurban

transport

mix

from

3%

in2023

toanestimated

7%

in2030.

By

then,

its

total

marketsizeisforecast

toreachclose

to$400

billion.3Exhibit

1:

Oliver

Wymanmodalmixestimate2022

54%5%

15%5%

11%11%Micromobility7%3%2030

28%15%PersonalVehicleRail

Bus21%5%

13%7%OtherPublicTransportICEEVWalkingBikeOtherincludingsharedmobilitySource:

Oliver

Wyman

analysisThe

impact

ofsharedmobility

onthe

urban

environment

isbecomingever

morenoticeable.When

suitably

implemented,

it

has

the

capability

to

increase

transport

e?ciency

and

?exibility,enhance

social

inclusion

by

increasing

accessibility,

and

reduce

transportemissions.But

it

has

also

faced

criticism.

Shared

mobility

has

been

blamed

for

contributing

to

congestionand

emissions

by

adding

more

trips

to

already

congested

roads.4,

5

Safety

concerns

have

beenraised

overe-scooters,

which

pose

accidentrisks

for

riders

andpedestrians.

Inaddition,

theplatform

economy

has

been

criticized

for

poor

working

conditions

and

unfair

competition

withtraditional

modes

of

transport.

As

a

result,

cities

such

as

London

have

cautiously

renewedoperating

licensesfor

ride-hailing

companiesando?ered

limitedtrials

for

rental

e-scooters.After

abacklash,

Parisbanned

e-scooter

rental

services

asof1September

2023.?OliverWyman2Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|ExecutiveSummaryThe

objective

of

this

report

is

to

evaluate

the

current

and

future

impact

of

shared

mobilityon

attainingamore

sustainable

urban

living

environment.

The

report

focuses

on

urbaneconomics,

social

inclusion,

and

environmental

impact,

looking

at

factors

such

as

incomeopportunities,

accessibility,

safety,

a?ordability,

and

emissions.

The

report

o?ers

aglobalperspective,

investigating

di?erences

between

developed

markets

in

Europe

and

rapidlyemerging

ones

in

Africa.

The

analyses

are

based

on

a

comprehensive

set

of

studies,

surveys,databases,

and

primary

research,

including

proprietary

data

provided

by

Bolt,aglobalmobility

company.This

report

has

?ve

sections:

the

?rst

gives

a

comprehensive

overview

of

the

shared

mobilityindustry,

focusing

on

the

megatrends

behind

changing

consumer

preferences

and

the

currentand

expected

growth

of

the

sector.

The

next

three

sections

explore

the

economic,

social,

andenvironmental

impact

of

shared

mobility

on

the

urban

living

environment.

The

?nal

sectionpresents

four

distinct

city

archetypes

and

examines

how

each

one

can

best

implement

andgrow

its

shared

mobility

o?erings

based

on

comprehensive

relevantcriteria.The

impact

ofsharedmobility

isexamined

inthree

dimensions.1.

ECONOMIC

IMPACTMore

than

9

million

people

worldwide

are

estimated

to

earn

an

income

from

shared

mobilityservices

in

2023,

and

the

number

is

forecast

to

grow

to

16

million

by

2030.

Asia

(includingthe

Middle

East)

accounts

for

71%

of

the

jobs,

while

Africa

has

the

strongest

growth:

jobs

areexpected

to

increase

by

113%

from

2023

to

2030.

Ride-hailing

drivers

typically

earn

above

theminimumwageinEurope(+37%inBerlin

and+91%inTallinn)andabovethe

wages

for

jobswith

comparable

skill

levels

in

Africa

(upto

+130%in

South

Africa

andNigeria).Challenges

related

to

safety

and

the

lack

of

employment

bene?ts

need

to

continue

tobeaddressed,

but

drivers

are

generally

satis?ed

(70%

to

80%

agreement

levels)

with

the

work:it

is

autonomous

and

?exible,

and

half

of

drivers

work

part-time

while

pursuing

otherincomeopportunities.Inaddition

totheirdirect

economicimpact,

sharedmobility

services

haveapositive

impactoncommuting,leisure,andtourism.They

also

havethe

potentialtoreducethe

economiccosts

ofairpollution

andtra?c

congestion.2.

SOCIAL

IMPACTThe

report

focuses

on

three

social

impacts:

a?ordability,

accessibility,

and

safety.

Sharedmobility

can

provide

a?ordable

alternatives

to

private-car

ownership

and

is

particularlybene?cial

for

individuals

with

lower

incomes

because

of

the

lower

upfront

costs.

Even

ifadriver

covers

asmuchas15,000km

ayear,atransition

from

private-car

ownership

tosharedmobility

can

yield

substantial

cost

savings.

Given

the

continueddecrease

incommuting?OliverWyman3Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|ExecutiveSummarydistances

in

Europe,

the

cost

advantage

of

shared

mobility

will

grow.

In

addition,

carownership

isbecomingless

convenientduetoacontinuousreduction

inpublicparkingspaces:Berlin

hasonly

230,000,

whilethere

are1.2millioncars

inthe

city.In

regions

with

limited

public

transport,

options

such

as

bike-sharing

can

increaseaccessibility,

particularly

for

vulnerable

groups

and

in

economically

disadvantaged

areas.However,

some

challenges

remain

in

meeting

the

needs

of

people

with

disabilities,

andsome

regions

are

underserved.

Safety

concerns

also

a?ect

regulation

and

user

perceptions.The

potential

social

impact

of

shared

mobility

can

be

realized

through

infrastructureimprovements,

the

orchestration

ofa

variety

of

o?erings

and

services,

and

activecooperation

among

stakeholders.3.

ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTPassenger

transport

contributes

about

40%

of

global

transport

emissions.

The

reportexamines

the

potential

of

shared

mobility

services

to

reduce

these

emissions,

in

line

withglobal

commitments

such

as

the

Paris

Agreement

and

the

United

Nations

SustainableDevelopment

Goals

(SDGs).While

shared

mobility

has

the

potential

to

signi?cantly

reduce

urban

emissions,

theoverall

impact

is

currently

mixed.

It

depends

on

consumer

behaviour,

mode

switching,andcoordinationwith

other

transport

modes.

For

instance,

personal

cars

inEuropenowcover1,700

km

less

distance

per

year

thana

decade

previously,

yet

the

level

of

vehiclesregistered

per

household

hasremainedroughly

the

same.

This

suggests

that

people

aredriving

less

but

arenotyet

willingtogive

uptheirpersonal

cars.

However,uptoaquarterof

people

who

frequently

use

car-sharing

and

ride-hailing

services

indicate

that

theywill

either

delaytheirpurchaseofanew

vehicleorarethinkingabout

getting

rid

oftheircurrent

one.E-scooter

usage

patterns

showthat

roughly

10%ofrides

directly

replacecar

journeys.Consequently,

e-scooters

on

their

own

have

contributed

toa

reduction

of

up

to120

millioncar-kilometrestravelled,helpingtoreducecar-relatedScope

3emissionsby

an

estimated

30,000

tons

ofCO

eona

European

level.

The

positive

e?ect

holds2even

when

accounting

for

the

substitution

of

emission-friendly

modes

such

as

walkingand

biking

for

micromobility

services.Takingintoaccountthe

growth

ofmultimodaltransport,

the

report’s

proprietary

mobilityemissions

model

shows

that

shared

mobility

will

play

an

important

part

in

reducing

personalcar

usage

by

up

to

20%

by

2030

in

cities

such

as

Berlin.

An

emissions-optimised

scenariofor

Berlin

results

insigni?cant

growth

inkilometres

travelledin2030

for

allshared-mobilitymodes

within

the

scope

of

this

report.

This

scenario

yieldsa

40%

reduction

in

emissions,from

4.1

milliontonstodayto2.5

milliontonsin2030.

To

achievethis,

it

isessential

tocarryout

holistic,

multimodalplanninginvolving

allstakeholders,

tocontinuetoadopt

electricvehicles,

andtodevelop

complementary

infrastructure.?OliverWyman4Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|IntroductionINTRODUCTION?OliverWyman5Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|IntroductionTransportsystems

arecloselylinked

tothe

prosperity

ofcities.

They

a?ectquality

oflife,

economicgrowth,

social

cohesion,andthe

environment.Transportsystems

will

also

determine

howfarcities

will

be

able

tocontributeto

globaltargets

suchas

theParis

Agreement

to

combatclimate

changeandthe

United

Nations’

Sustainable

Development

Goals

(SDGs)6

for

a

moreprosperous,

equitable

future.

The

SDGsemphasizethe

interconnectedenvironmental,social,andeconomicaspects

ofsustainabledevelopmentbyputting

sustainability

andsustainable

transport

at

their

centre.7This

report

aims

to

evaluate

the

current

and

future

impact

of

shared

mobility

on

sustainableurban

living.

It

focuses

on

urban

economics,

social

equity,

and

environmental

impact,analysing

factors

related

to

shared

mobility

such

as

income

opportunities,

accessibility,safety,

a?ordability,

and

emissions.

It

also

identi?es

city

archetypes

based

on

sharedmobility’s

magnitude

ofimpact,

andoutlines

howthat

positive

impact

can

be

maximizedfor

each

archetype.

O?ering

aglobal

perspective,

the

report

looks

at

di?erences

betweendeveloped

markets

inEuropeandrapidly

emergingones

inAfrica.As

stated

in

the

executive

summary,

the

report

contains

?ve

sections.

The

?rst

givesacomprehensive

overview

of

the

shared

mobility

industry,

focusing

on

the

megatrendsbehind

changing

consumer

preferences,

and

presenting

the

sector’s

current

and

expectedfuture

growth.

The

next

three

explore

the

economic,

social,

and

environmental

impactsofsharedmobility

oncities.

Each

looks

in-depth

at

the

factors

shapingthe

industry,

usingdetailed

case

studies,

analyses,

?rst-hand

databases,

and

proprietary

models.

The

?nalsection

presents

four

city

archetypes

and

examines

how

each

can

best

implement

andpromoteits

sharedmobility

o?erings.?OliverWyman6Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|IntroductionCHAPTER

1THE

SHAREDMOBILITY

INDUSTRY?OliverWyman7Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|Chapter1CHANGING

CONSUMER

PREFERENCES

DRIVE

GROWTHShared

mobility

has

undergone

substantial

growth

in

recent

years

due

to

severaltransformational

trends

in

cities

and

society

overall.

Some

of

these

trends

are:?Growing

environmental

consciousness

haspropelled

adoption,

assharedmobility

aimstoreducethe

overallnumberofvehiclesonthe

road

andtotal

emissions.

For

instance,morethanhalfofEuropeans(54%)feel

bad

about

the

ecological

footprint

linkedtotheuse

oftheircar.8?A?ordability

remainsa

concern

for

consumers:

48%

of

respondents

to

theQ1

2023Oliver

Wyman

Global

ConsumerSurvey

stated

price/a?ordability

asthe

topfactor

forselecting

atransport

mode.

Sharedmobility

aimstoprovide

cost-e?cient

alternatives9totraditionalmodes

oftransport.??Advances

intechnology

—particularly

the

widespread

use

ofsmartphones

andmobileapps—havemadesharedmobility

services

moreconvenientandaccessiblefor

users.Today,

68%

ofthe

globalpopulation

own

asmartphone.10Attitudes

to

ownership

and

the

sharing

economy

have

changed,

helping

fostera

cultureof

collaborative

consumption

and

shared

resources.

Younger

Europeans

(40%

of

thoseaged

18-34)

are

more

likely

to

abandon

personal

cars:

12%

say

they

would

de?nitely

do

so.Similarly,

32%

of

European

car

owners

can

imagine

not

having

apersonal

car

in

the

future.Urban

residents

show

ahigher

inclination

to

do

without

their

own

car,at

35%,

comparedto

31%

for

residents

of

smaller

towns

and

rural

areas.11?The

marked

increase

in

urban

congestion

has

led

commuters

to

spend

hours

in

tra?cwhich

has

encouraged

people

to

use

new

—

and

quicker

—

forms

of

transport,

particularlye-scooters

and

e-bikes.?OliverWyman8Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|Chapter1SHARED

MOBILITY:

DEFINITION

AND

SEGMENTS

IN

SCOPEThis

report

focuses

on

sharedtransport

that

can

be

pursued

individually

byconsumers.The

de?nition

includesride-hailing,

car-sharing,bike-sharing,

andscooter-sharing.Ride-hailing

enables

passengers

to

request

rides

througha

mobile

app.

Usersenter

their

pickup

and

drop-o?

locations,

andanearby

driver

is

assigned.

Ridescan

be

requested

on

demand

or

scheduled

in

advance.

Payment

can

be

handledelectronically

via

an

app

or

by

cash

ona

per-usage

basis.

This

report

di?erentiatesbetween

ride-hailing

and

traditional(o?ine)taxi

services.Car-sharingallows

individuals

torentvehiclesfor

short

periods.

Users

can

book

acarthroughamobileapporwebsite,choose

the

durationoftheirrental,

andpickupthevehiclefrom

adesignatedlocation.

Free-?oating

car-sharingallows

users

topickupanddropo?

vehiclesat

alocation

within

adesignatedservice

area,o?ering

?exibilityand

convenience.

In

contrast,

stationary

car-sharing

requires

users

to

pick

up

andreturn

vehicles

to

a

designated

station

or

hub,

limiting

?exibility

but

often

resulting

inlower

costs

and

making

availability

easier

to

manage.

Car-sharing

services

often

o?eravariety

ofvehicleoptions,

from

compact

cars

toSUVs,

catering

todi?erent

needs.Micromobilityrefers

to

the

use

of

small,

lightweight

vehicles,

usually

e-scooters

ande-bikes,

for

transport.

These

electric

machines

have

gained

popularity

in

urban

areasas

alternatives

to

traditional

modes

of

transport.

E-scooters

are

compact,

stand-upscooters

equipped

with

an

electric

motor.E-bikes

are

bicycles

equipped

with

electricmotors

to

provide

pedal-assist

propulsion.

Users

can

rent

e-scooters

and

e-bikesthrough

mobile

apps,

which

allow

?exible

and

convenient

access.

As

with

car-sharing,thisreport

focuses

onfree-?oating

services.Commonlyassociated

with

sharedmobility

but

notthe

focus

ofthisreport,

aremass-transit

options

such

as

public

transport,

car-pooling,and

bus

pooling.Moped-sharing

and

futuristic

topics

such

as

air

taxis

currently

havealimitedmarketandarealso

excluded.?OliverWyman9Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|Chapter1GROWTH

IS

STRONG

IN

ALL

SEGMENTS

OF

SHARED

MOBILITY,

WITH

AFRICA

ANDASIA

SHOWING

THE

STRONGEST

PROJECTED

GROWTH

RATES?The

global

shared

mobility

market

is

expected

to

grow

from

$258

billion

in

2023

to$401

billion

in

2030

(a

compound

annual

growth

rate,

or

CAGR,

of6.5%).12

Some

of

thesegments

that

were

only

introduced

more

recently

are

among

the

fastest

growing.

Theseinclude

micromobility,

expected

to

grow

from

$11.4

billion

in

2023

to

$22.6

billion

in

2030(CAGR

of10%)

and

car-sharing,

witha

forecast

annual

growth

rate

of

11%,

taking

themarketfrom

$11.3

billionin2023

to$23.6

billionin2030.13

While

the

marketisgrowingfast,

it

still

represents

less

than5%ofoverallglobalmobility

spending,which

ismorethan$10

trillion.14??Growth

in

shared

mobility

is

expected

in

all

regions

of

the

world.

However,

Asia

stands

outasamaindriver,with

aCAGR

of8%

between

2023

and2030

andaforecast

total

marketsizeof$254

billionin2030,

roughly

two-thirds

ofthe

globalmarket.15

The

region’s

rapidindustrialization

andurbanization

arestimulating

demandfor

cars,

which

isfuelling

thecar-sharingmarketbecause

ofstrict

regulationsonpersonal

vehicleownership

inmanycities.

Furthermore,

urban

population

density

and

the

popularity

of

cycling

provide

fertileground

for

the

adoption

of

micromobility

services.North

America

and

Europe

have

comparable

market

sizes

and

are

anticipated

to

grow

atsimilarrates

inthe

comingyears.

In2023,

they

eachhadshared-mobility

marketvaluesof

around

$50

billion,

which

are

projected

to

reach

$70

billion

by

2030.16

However,

thetransport

landscape

di?ers

between

the

two

regions.

In

relatively

car-dependent17

NorthAmerica,

ride-hailing

dominates

(~93%

of

total

market

in

2023).

However

in

Europe,micromobility

solutions

andcar-sharingservices

aremorepopular,partly

the

result

ofEuropeancities’

highpopulation

densities.

Nevertheless,

ride-hailing

services,

includingtaxis,

are

still

forecast

to

grow

in

Europe,

from

$44

billion

in

2023

to

almost

$56

billionin2030.18?Africa

represents

only

a

small

part

of

the

global

shared-mobility

market,

with

an

estimatedmarket

size

of

$4.2

billion

in

2023.

However,

between

2023

and

2030,

the

African

marketis

expected

to

grow

by

9%

per

year

on

average,a

higher

growth

rate

than

the

otherregions.

By

2030,

the

market

size

is

expected

to

have

nearly

doubled

compared

to

2023,to

as

much

as

$7.8billion.19

While

its

market

size

is

currently

small,

Africa

will

be

home

tomuch

of

the

future

potential.

The

share

of

its

population

that

is

rural

is

the

highest

in

theworld,

but

its

urban

population

is

the

world’s

fastest

growing,

and

it

has

the

world’s

largestpercentage

of

population

under

30.

Africa

is

expected

to

be

home

to

?ve

out

of

the

world’s41

megacities

by

2030.20

(Oneofthese

will

be

Lagos.

See

the

Deep-dive

inthe

Appendix.)?OliverWyman10Contents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|Chapter1Exhibit

2:

Globalsharedmobilitymarketsizes,byserviceInbillionsofUS$355235241611972Ride-hailingandtaxi2023

2030Car-sharingBike-sharingE-Scooter-sharingSource:

Oliver

Wyman

Forum

and

University

of

California

Berkeley

value

pool

reportPLATFORM

PROVIDERS

HAVE

PUSHED

THE

FAST

GLOBAL

ROLLOUT

OF

SHAREDMOBILITY

SERVICESLarge

shared-mobility

providers

have

playeda

signi?cant

role

in

driving

the

industrygrowth

since

they

were

launched

more

than

adecade

ago.

They

include

Uber

(global),

Bolt(global,

with

afocus

on

Europe

and

Africa),

Lyft

(North

America),

Didi

Chuxing

(global,

witha

focus

on

China),

Ola

(India),

and

Careem

(Middle

East

and

Africa).

These

providers

o?eraportfolio

that

encompasses

ride-hailing,

car-sharing,

and

micromobility

options,

and

theyhave

also

expanded

into

additional

services

such

as

food

delivery

(which

is

not

the

focus

ofthis

report).

Their

diverse

range

of

services

provide

consumers

with

convenient

and

?exibletransport

solutions.

They

cater

to

di?erent

needs

and

preferences

ona

single

platform,thereby

aiming

to

revolutionize

the

way

people

move

around

urban

areas.

In

Europe,

morethan

700,000

shared

e-scooters

were

available

at

the

end

of

2022,21

up

from

virtually

nonein

2017.

As

shown

in

the

market

growth

projections

above,

this

trend

is

growing,

and

sharedmobility

will

continue

to

transform

the

way

peoplemove.?OliverWyman11CHAPTER

2ECONOMIC

IMPAC

TContents

|Shared

Mobility'sGlobalImpact|Chapter22.1.

INCOME

OPPORTUNITIESKEY

TAKEAWAYS???In

2023,

more

than

9

million

people

are

estimated

to

earn

an

income

through

sharedmobility.

The

number

is

forecast

to

grow

to

around

16

million

in2030.Asia

(including

the

Middle

East)

is

forecast

to

account

for

71%of

all

people

working

inshared

mobility

in

2030,

while

Africa

is

expected

to

be

the

fastest-growingregion.Shared

mobility

is

creating

access

to

transport

in

areas

and

for

individuals

that

werepreviously

underserved.

The

reduced

costs

of

certain

modes

will

make

transportmore

a?ordable.?Around

95%

of

people

working

in

shared

mobility

will

be

in

ride-hailing.

However,autonomous

vehicles

—

the

use

of

which

is

already

being

planned

in

the

US

—

have

thecapacity

to

signi?cantly

reduce

the

number

of

human

drivers

if

successfully