富達(dá)2024年展望 -英

Thisisforinvestmentprofessionalsonlyandshouldnotberelieduponby

privateinvestorsContentsOverview35Theeconomy

in2024Scenario

1:Cyclical

recessionScenario

2:

Soft

landing91418222630Scenario

3:Balance

sheetrecessionScenario

4:No

landingAsiaSustainability2Investment

OutlookFidelity

InternationalOverviewMore

risk,

higher

yields,

and

four

ways

forwardRemarkable

changesacross

economies

and

markets,

combinedwith

a

year

of

politicaluncertainty,

make

forecasting

unusuallydi?cult

in

2024.Instead,we

o?er

four

potential

pathsthe

world

could

take,

eachassigned

with

its

own

probability.AndrewMcCa?eryGlobal

CIO,Asset

ManagementI

have

never

managed

money

on

the

basis

that

Iknow

what’s

going

to

happen

in

12

months’

time.I

may

have

a

view,

butgood

investing

needsdiscipline,

an

open

mind,

and

a

preparedness

toreact

to

the

facts

asthey

change.which

allows

us

to

prepare

sooner,

spotting

signalsalong

the

way

that

either

support

or

refute

a

givenoutcome,

so

we

can

adapt

accordingly.In

our

Outlook

for

the

coming

year,

we

lay

outthe

four

macroeconomic

scenarios

for

developedmarkets

that

we

think

investors

should

keepOften,it’s

di?cult

to

understand

big

economic,social,

or

political

shifts

until

they

are

well

underway

in

mind

as2024

unfolds,

while

our

heads

ofand

new

trends

are

?rmly

established.

We’re

in

the?rst

stages

of

a

dramatic

regime

change

-

fromlow

in?ation

and

ever

declining

interest

rates

tosomething

di?erent.

That

something

di?erent

willcome

with

greater

economic

volatility

and

the

riskpremium

for

holding

assetswill

therefore

be

higher.We

expect

rates

will

tend

higher

and

returns

onequity

will

be

much

more

di?erentiated

acrosscountries

and

regions.investment

explain

what

each

would

mean

fortheir

assetclass.And

what

a

year

lies

ahead.

There

will

be

anexceptional

run

of

elections

across

the

world

during2024

coinciding

with

a

renewed

interest

in

?scalpolicy.

There

is

a

political

desire

to

maintain

highbudget

de?cits

and

government

intervention

indi?erent

forms.

Markets

will

start

to

exert

a

greaterprice

for

that

spending.

We

are

going

to

be

talkingabout

the

cost

of

capital

a

lot

in

2024,

not

justforcorporates

butfor

governments,

and

not

only

whatinterest

costs

will

do

in

the

short

run.In

this

environment

I

?nd

it

more

helpful

to

considerdi?erent

scenarios:

the

alternate

paths

economiesand

markets

could

take.

My

colleagues

and

Iestimate

how

likely

we

think

each

scenario

to

be,3Investment

OutlookFidelity

InternationalThe

most

signi?cant

election,

of

course,

will

be

inthe

United

States.

It

has

long

been

a

destinationfor

safe

haven

?ows

and

a

place

to

park

theproceeds

of

trade

surpluses,

helping

to

fund

publicand

private

spending.

In

a

world

of

reshoringand

falling

Chinese

demand

for

US

goods,

theso-called

‘exorbitant

privilege’

that

comes

withissuing

the

world’s

reservecurrency

appears

to

bewaning.

These

cracks

could

easily

widen

in

2024and

present

a

temptation

for

the

Federal

Reserveto

pauseor

even

reverse

monetary

measures

likequantitative

tightening.Perhaps

the

biggest

shift

of

all

is

the

e?ort

tobuild

a

more

sustainable

world,

and

the

work

bypolicymakers

to

pushcompanies

and

investorsfurther

into

a

transition

economy.

Engaging

with

thenetwork

of

regulators

and

industry

groups

through‘system-wide

stewardship’

will

continue

to

beimportant

in

2024

and

beyond,

a

topic

our

Outlookalso

covers.The

world

is

always

uncertain.

But

this

is

one

ofthose

periods

when

it

is

not

an

exaggeration

to

usethe

phrase

‘regime

change’.

Investors

will

need

tostay

nimble

in

2024,

ready

to

navigate

each

twistand

turn

asthe

real

scenario

plays

out.China’s

cycle

is

in

a

di?erent

place,

withimplications

for

other

Asian

economies

that

canbene?t

from

the

country’s

demand.

Our

2024Outlook

presents

scenarios

here,

too.

Meanwhile,Japan

is,

like

western

economies,

adjusting

to

theend

of

one

era

and

the

beginning

of

another.4Investment

OutlookFidelity

InternationalThe

economy

in

2024Something

will

giveThe

economy

continues

to

deliver

surprises

but

we

are

con?dent

of

one

thing:

ifUS

and

otherdeveloped

world

interest

rateshave

not

peaked

already,

then

they

will

do

sosoon.

And

againstthis

backdropgrowth

will

stall.

We

detail

four

potential

scenarios

for

2024

and

the

next

leg

of

abusiness

cycle

whichhas

seenthe

most

intense

round

of

monetary

tightening

ina

generation.SalmanAhmedGlobal

Head

ofMacroandStrategicAsset

AllocationMuch

of

what

has

surprised

central

bank

o?cialsand

?nancial

markets

in

2023

stems

from

our

lackof

understanding

of

the

deeper

economic

e?ectsof

the

past

?fteen

years

-

including

the

pandemic

-on

households

and

corporations.

We

will

get

moreclarity

in

the

months

ahead

-

on

in?ation,

the

optimalMarkets,

where

those

betting

on

a

downturn

havealready

been

burned

once,

are

however

now

linedup

behind

a

Goldilocks

‘soft

landing’

where

therate

hikes

and

the

tightening

of

the

past

two

yearswill

do

just

enough

to

gradually

return

the

economyand

labour

market

to

equilibrium.

We

have

alevel

of

interest

rates,

or

the

stubborn

resilience

of

the

di?erent

view.USjob

market.

But

investors

are

rightly

nervous

thatOur

base

case

for

2024

is

a

cyclicalthe

next

stage

of

this

cycle

will

bring

more

volatility.recessionOur

labour

market

tightness

index

is

?nallyshowingsignsofeasingResilience

driven

by

?scally

supported

consumersand

companies

has

been

the

biggest

surprise

of2023,

butbarring

something

extraordinary,

nextyear

we

expect

to

see

the

economy

?nally

turnlower.

There

are

signs

it

is

already

doing

so.

Thebu?er

of

savings

built

up

by

households

and

thecorporatesector

in

the

pandemic

is

almost

drained,?scal

support

should

narrow,

and

there

is

likelyto

be

a

pick-up

in

re?nancing

needs

at

a

time

ofcredit

tightening

across

the

board.100%50%0%1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020NBERRecessionPeriodsFidelityUS

Labour

Market

TightnessIndicatorSoft

LandingPeriodsSource:FidelityInternational,

FILGlobalMacro

Team

calculations,

Haver

Analytics,October

2023.5Investment

OutlookFidelity

InternationalUS

excess

consumersavings

almost

depletedAggregate

excess

savings

following

recessionshave

to

be

balanced

out.

A

moderate

recessionshould

achieve

that,

driven

by

tight

monetary

policyasthe

e?ects

of

lagged

?scal

support

melt

away

inthe

developed

world.

Labour

markets

will

normaliseand

restore

price

stability

before

we

move

towardsa

recovery

at

the

end

of

2024.$3tn$2tn$1tn$0tn$-1tnSigns

of

a

recession

are

already

apparent

inEurope

where

the

transmission

channel

is

moree?ective.

This

has

led

the

European

Central

Bank

tostart

focusing

on

growth

-

a

trend

we

think

will

takehold

in

the

US

next

year.0510

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Monthssincestartofrecession1970197319801990200120082020Current

business

activity

indicators

showEurope

slowing

down

faster

thanthe

USNote:

excess

savings

calculated

as

the

accumulated

di?erence

betweenactual

personalsavingsandthe

trend

implied

by

data

for

48monthsleadingupthe

?rstmonthofeach

recession

asde?nedby

the

National

Bureau

ofEconomic

Research.2Source:FidelityInternational,FRBSF

Sta?

calculations,

BEA,

September

2023.All

of

this

supports

our

base

case

for

a

cyclicalrecession

in

2024;

in?ation

has

begun

to

fall

butinterest

rates

will

stay

higher

for

longer

until

thereare

clearer

signs

it

is

heading

back

to

target.Central

banks

will

then

pivot

and

cut

rates

asthedamage

to

growth

becomes

obvious.10-1-2July2020July2021July2022July2023USEuroareaSource:FidelityInternational,

FILGlobalMacro

Team

calculations,

Re?nitiv

Datastream,

October

2023.Labour

markets

will

normaliseand

restore

price

stability

beforewe

move

towards

a

recovery

atthe

end

of

2024Alternative

endingsWe

still

see

room

for

other

possibilities.

Alongsidea

cyclical

recession,

to

which

we

giveaprobability

of

60per

cent,

our

2024

outlookconsiders

the

investment

implications

ofa

moresevere

balance

sheet

recession

(10

per

centprobability)

that

prompts

widespread

cutbacksin

spending

by

companies

and

consumers

alikeand

judders

through

the

economy,

even

into2025,

driven

bya

disruptive

reaction

tovery

highreal

rates.

We

consider

the

chances

of

the

moreFundamentally,

we

continue

to

think

there

is

simplya

lag

between

policytightening

and

thee?ectson

the

real

economy.

The

transmission

channel

isdelayed,

not

broken

and

the

continued

stickinessof

in?ation

points

to

misaligned

expectations

that6Investment

OutlookFidelity

Internationalbenign

soft

landing

(20

per

cent);

anda

case

inwhich

there

is

no

landing

in

2024

at

all

(10

perHowever,

our

research

shows

such

a

scenarioto

be

at

oddswith

current

in?ation

and

labourcent),

in

other

words,

where

the

economy

holds

at

market

dynamics.

Surveys

of

Fidelity’s

equity,

?xedcurrent

levels

of

growth

and

in?ation,

provokingcentral

banks

into

another,

albeit

incremental,round

of

policyrate

rises.income,

and

private

credit

analysts

show

thatpressure

on

company

labour

costs

is

alive

andwell.

Geopolitical

tensions

and

the

demands

ofthe

energy

transition

will

keep

upward

pressureon

commodity

prices.

This

in

turn

will

force

centralbanks

to

keep

interest

rates

high

and

sooner

orlater

deliver

a

more

dramatic

shock

to

growth.The

path

of

Federal

Reserve

policy,

togetherwith

in?ation

and

growth

trajectories,

will

lookdramatically

di?erent

in

each

scenario

and

willinevitably

be

subject

to

high

levels

of

uncertaintyboth

in

terms

of

timing

and

end

points.Four

scenarios

for

2024The

path

of

Federal

Reserve

policy,together

with

inflation

and

growthtrajectories,

will

look

dramaticallydifferent

in

each

scenario6%5%4%3%2%1%0%Don’t

forget

the

tails-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%There

are

other

real

threats

to

growth.

China’smuch

feted

path

to

recovery

has

proved

rockierthan

hoped.

The

country’s

unique

storydemands

aset

of

its

own

scenarios

for

2024

and,

on

balance,we

think

Beijing

will

manage

to

hit

its

growthtargets

this

year

butwill

do

little

more

asa

periodof

controlled

stabilisation

comes

through.Growth(endof

2024)Cyclical

recessionBalancesheet

recessionSoft

landingNo

landingNote:

In?ation

rate

measured

byUS

Personal

Consumption

Expenditures

Price

Index.

GrowthbyUSGDP.

Source:FidelityInternational,October

2023.Markets

are

still

optimisticUnder

thesoft

landing

scenario

backed

by

currentmarket

pricing,

the

decision

to

keep

interest

rateshigher

for

longer

could

further

reduce

in?ation

toa

level

where

policymakers

are

comfortable.

TheFed

and

others

would

then

respond

by

looseningpolicy,

removing

the

threat

of

crippling

rises

indebt

payments

for

households

and

companies.Pressure

for

bigger

rises

in

wages

would

abateasin?ation

expectationseased

and

the

labourmarket

steadied.A

US

electionyear

crystalises

the

partisan

divisionthat

threatens

its

government’s

ability

to

spend

andhas

the

potential

to

shift

geopolitical

goalpostsmeaningfully,

in

both

Europe

and

Asia.The

Russia-Ukrainewar

continues

to

fuel

commodityprices

at

a

time

when

supply

is

already

tight.

Risksemanating

from

a

widening

of

the

Israel-Hamaswar

into

a

regional

con?ict

remain,

including

apotential

rise

in

oil

prices

which

would

lead

toanother

shock

to

headline

in?ation.

That

shock7Investment

OutlookFidelity

Internationalcould

lead

to

damaging

rises

in

interest

rates

aswell

asthe

risk

of

stag?ation

down

the

line.know.

Expect

narratives

to

shift

rapidly.

Preparefor

shorter

cycles.

Watch

for

imbalances

betweendemand

and

supply,

and

for

lags

in

thee?ectsof

policy.

A

volatile

macroeconomic

environmentdemands

vigilance.Policymakers

will

continue

to

test

the

limits

of

the?nancial

system.

As

the

world

makes

its

?rst

everexit

from

QE

there

is

much

we

don’t

-

and

can’t

-The

view

on

the

groundWe

surveyed

analysts

across

our

equity,

?xed

income,

and

private

credit

teams

to

hear

how

their

sectorswould

fare

in

the

di?erent

scenarios.In

the

table

below,

upward

arrows

indicate

that

most

of

the

responses

in

the

sector

are

implying

a

positivee?ect

and

the

background

colour

indicates

the

strength

of

those

responses.

For

example,

most

consumerstaples

analysts

answered

that

a

cyclical

recession

will

have

a

positive

impacton

their

sector.

Thedownward

arrow

indicates

a

negative

impact,with

the

shade

of

red

re?ecting

the

strength

of

responses.The

neutral/no

change

“-”

has

a

light

grey

background

and

indicates

lack

of

clear

direction.Consumer

Consumerdiscretionary

staplesInformationTechnologyEnergyFinancials

Healthcare

IndustrialsMaterialsTelecomsUtilitiesReal

EstateCyclicalrecessionSoftlandingBalancesheetrecessionNolandingStrongnegativeimpactModeratelypositiveimpactModeratelynegativeimpactStrongpositiveimpactNocleardirectionNote:

Real

estate

analysts

consider

both

earnings/valuation

oflisted

securities

within

the

real

estate

space

as

well

asthe

yield

onunderlying

real

assets.Source:FidelityInternational

Analyst

Survey,

October

2023.8Investment

OutlookFidelity

International60%Scenario

1:Cyclical

recessionprobabilityOurbase

case

scenarioA

cyclical

recession

would

see

a

moderate

economic

contraction

followed

bya

return

togrowthin

late

2024

or

early

2025.

In?ation

would

be

sticky

fora

period

before

returning

to

target,

withinterest

ratesstaying

higher

for

longerfollowed

by

central

banks

pivoting

tocut

rates.Thisiscurrentlyourbase

case.Cyclical

recession:

in?ation

falls

backto

target

–

ratescome

down

after

labour

market

cracksOpportunity

lingers......with

growth

coming

later

in

the

year6%5%4%3%2%1%0%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%Q4

2023Q1

2024Q2

2024Q3

2024Q4

2024-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%Growth

(endof

2024)Cyclical

recessionCore

PCE(%YoY)Policyrate(FFR-

LB)Soft

landingNo

landingBalance

sheet

recessionSource:FidelityInternational,October

2023.Note:

In?ation

rate

measured

byUS

Personal

Consumption

Expenditures

Price

Index.

GrowthbyUSGDP.

Source:FidelityInternational,October

2023.Investment

summary:

In

our

base

case

scenario,a

cyclical

recession

would

bring

lower

economicgrowth

that

could

be

a

worry

for

small-caps

orcompanies

with

discretionary

sales.

Equities

(awayfrom

low-qualityor

small

names)

would

be

ofinterest,

while

in

?xed

income

the

focus

wouldremain

on

short-dated,

high-quality

credits.■

Some

cautiousness

around

cyclical

sectors

andweaker

geographies■

In?ation-linked

bonds

preferred

as

in?ationremains

sticky,

although

nominal

bonds

willbene?t

as

rates

fall■

A

potential

‘Goldilocks-zone’

for

real

estateinvestment9Investment

OutlookFidelity

InternationalScenario

1:CyclicalrecessionScenario

2:SoftlandingScenario

3:Scenario

4:NolandingBalance

sheetrecessionMulti

assetquality

names

in

recession

scenarios,

withre?nancing

concerns

feeding

intoa

preferencein

the

base

case

for

investment

grade

credit

andhigher-rated

high

yield

issuers.We

regard

a

cyclical

recession

asa

mildly

risk-o?

scenario

in

which

there

would

still

be

goodopportunities

for

investors

who

are

discerningaboutsectors

and

geographies.

Investors

shouldn’tbe

scared

of

holding

select

equity

investmentsbecause

markets

anticipate

an

economic

recoverylater

in

the

year.

US

equities

would

be

especiallywell

positioned.

In

particular,

mid-capstocks

lookattractive

along

with

much

of

the

S&P

500

thathave

not

shared

the

incredible

performance

thisyear

of

the

‘Magni?cent

Seven’

stocks

(Alphabet,Amazon,

Apple,

Meta,

Microsoft,

Nvidia,

and

Tesla).Valuations

look

reasonable

for

thesewell-runcompanies

with

solid

growth

prospects.

US

small-caps

would

be

more

challenged

in

a

slowdownor

recession

scenario

given

their

greater

debtre?nancing

needs.We

expect

in?ation

ina

cyclical

recession

wouldbe

sticky

fora

while

before

it

fell

back

to

target,and

so

in?ation-linked

bonds

(o?ering

‘realyields’)

would

be

preferred

to

nominal

bondsin

this

scenario.

Markets

already

price

in?ationreturning

to

target,

butinvestorsexpectthatveryhigh

real

yields

will

be

neededto

achieve

that.In

this

scenario,

real

yields

would

fall

in

line

withgrowth

and

central

bank

expectations.In

a

recession,

India

andIndonesia

are

markets

with

gooddefensive

qualities

that

are

lesstied

to

the

global

cycle‘Magni?cent

Seven’

stocks

leadS&P

500performance18016014012010080We

would

take

long

positions

in

certain

emergingmarkets

in

any

scenario,

given

attractivevaluations

and

idiosyncratic

economic

cycles,butour

preferences

change

depending

onwhich

scenario

emerges.

Ina

recession,

Indiaand

Indonesia

are

markets

with

good

defensivequalities

that

are

less

tied

to

the

global

cycle.

Wealso

favour

some

emerging

market

local

currencybonds

(with

exchange

rate

hedging)

as

globalinterest

rates

decline,

butwithout

any

signi?cantgrowth

concerns

impacting

the

creditworthinessof

major

emerging

markets.February

2023June

2023October

2023S&P

500Top

7RestNote:

Top

seven=

Meta,

Amazon,

Apple,

Microsoft,Alphabet,

Tesla,

Nvidia.Source:GoldmanSachs,

FidelityInternational,October

2023.This

re?ects

our

broader

preference

for

playinghigh-quality

equities

and

credit

against

low--

Henk-Jan

RikkerinkGlobal

Head

of

Solutions

and

Multi

Asset10Investment

OutlookFidelity

InternationalScenario

1:CyclicalrecessionScenario

2:SoftlandingScenario

3:Scenario

4:NolandingBalance

sheetrecessionFixed

incomePrivate

creditOur

cyclical

recession

scenario

starts

with

aperiod

of

above-consensus

in?ation

in

the

?rsthalf

of

2024.

We

would

expect

a

series

of

upsidein?ation

surprises

to

generate

another

spell

ofoutperformance

for

in?ation-linked

bonds.

Thiswould

be

similar

to

2020/2021

when

in?ationaccelerated

and

1

to

10-yearin?ation-linked

bondsoutperformedall-maturity

nominals

by

about

15per

cent.

Upside

in?ation

surprises

would

suggesta

tricky

period

for

nominal

bonds

in

the

?rst

halfof

2024,

and

we

would

therefore

favour

medium-duration

in?ation-linked

bonds

over

nominal

ones

inthis

scenario.In

a

cyclical

recession,

our

approach

would

beto

focus

on

furtherreducing

risk

and

allocating

toborrowers

with

the

strongest

balance

sheets.

Wewould

expectsome

support

to

valuations

given

theexpected

reversal

in

interest

rates.A

cyclical

recession

demands

a

focuson

companies

where

we

can

have

adirect

influence

over

the

structure

anddocumentation

of

dealsIfthe

yield

curves

remain

inverted

in

all

majorcurrencies,

we

would

suggestmoney

marketfunds

as

a

respectable

alternative

for

morecautious

investors,

asthey

o?er

higher

yields

thangovernment

bonds

with

almost

no

risk.In

the

senior

secured

loan

market,

we

wouldfavour

defensive

sectors

and

?rms

with

capex-lightbusiness

models

that

have

strong

visibility

on

theirearnings.

Companies

with

contracted

rather

thandiscretionary

sales

would

be

the

focus,

aswellasthose

that

are

likely

to

have

more

stable

cash?ows,

such

ashealthcare,

technology,

and

businessservices

?rms.

Debt

service

costs

would

start

todecrease

asinterest

rates

came

back

down.Central

banks

on

high

alert

for

persistent

in?ationshould

help

here.

Short-dated,

high-quality

credit

(inGBP,

for

example)

could

also

work

well.The

laterpart

of

2024,

when

we

anticipate

faster-than-expected

cuts

from

the

US

Federal

Reserve,would

be

a

strong

period

for

nominal

bonds.Itwould

be

the

hardest

of

all

asset

allocations

totime,

butfor

investors

with

a

higher

risk

tolerance,nominal

yields

at

cycle

highs

will

be

irresistibleat

some

point

and

o?er

higher

betas

than

areavailable

with

in?ation-linked

bonds.Inthisscenario,

we

recommendbeingoverweightonbothstructuredcreditanddirectlendingstrategies,withaparticularfocusonlendingto

defensivesectorsandthosewithbusiness-to-businessincomestreams.Acyclicalrecessiondemandsaconservativeapproachto

creditselectionto

avoidover-leveraged?rms,andafocusoncompanieswherewe

canhaveadirectin?uenceover

thestructureanddocumentationofdeals.-

Steve

EllisGlobal

ChiefInvestment

O?cer,

Fixed

IncomeThere

is

already

plenty

of

downside

risk

priced

intothe

lowest

end

of

the

market.

And

soheading

intoa

cyclical

recession

there

would

be

a

moment

to11Investment

OutlookFidelity

InternationalScenario

1:CyclicalrecessionScenario

2:SoftlandingScenario

3:Scenario

4:NolandingBalance

sheetrecessionreallocate

into

interesting,

lower-rated

assetsthatThe

UK

meanwhile

would

do

poorly

in

thisthe

market

has

over-discounted

-

once

we

had

sight

scenario

because

arounda

?fth

of

the

market

isof

the

recovery.made

up

of

energy

and

mining

companies.

Thesewould

su?er

from

slowing

economic

growth.

Wewould

favour

international

names,

in

particularhigh-quality,

economically-insensitive

nameswith

recurring

revenue

and

good

pricing

powerthat

should

see

them

througha

storm.

Thesebusinesses

can

be

found

across

severalsectors,from

consumer

staples

to

computer

software.-

Michael

CurtisHead

of

Private

Credit

StrategiesEquitiesCurrent

consensus

earnings

forecasts

look

toooptimistic

for

this

scenario

sowe

wouldexpectthem

to

be

downgraded.

It

would

be

worthlooking

for

cheap

stocks

in

markets

such

asEurope

and

Japan

where

valuations

are

farfrom

pricing

in

any

kind

of

recession.

Japan

isespecially

positive

for

equity

owners

thanks

toa

series

of

corporate

governance

reforms

whichhave

focused

on

shareholder

returns.

We

wouldalsoexpectthe

yen

to

strengthen

if

there

wereinterest

rate

cutselsewhere.There

could

be

an

interesting

dynamic

aroundsmall

andmid-capstocks

in

thi