2022建筑電氣化及其驅(qū)動(dòng)的城市能源轉(zhuǎn)型路徑報(bào)告

建筑電氣化及其驅(qū)動(dòng)的城市能源轉(zhuǎn)型路徑報(bào)告1建筑節(jié)能發(fā)展進(jìn)入新時(shí)期低碳發(fā)展成為全球共識(shí)。17021.520302060可再生電力能源是實(shí)現(xiàn)化石能源替代的根本途徑，大量研究表明中國(guó)可再生能源在2050年一次能源消費(fèi)中的占比將達(dá)到50%1002kWh源，將成為建筑節(jié)能的新途徑。城市能源系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展?？稍偕娏δ茉吹母弑壤凉B透將對(duì)城市能源電氣”多能協(xié)同模式是應(yīng)對(duì)這一挑戰(zhàn)、實(shí)現(xiàn)城市能源系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。挖掘建筑分布式蓄能和可調(diào)節(jié)負(fù)荷，提高建筑能源的靈活性正在逐漸成為建筑節(jié)能除能效提升外的新維度。農(nóng)村和西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)振興。農(nóng)村和西部地區(qū)有豐富的土地資源，是發(fā)展太陽(yáng)能、風(fēng)能、生物質(zhì)能等多種可再生能源的基礎(chǔ)。生活熱水、采暖、農(nóng)用器械等的電氣化可以提高能源利用效率、減少散煤使用，對(duì)改善農(nóng)民生活水平、減少環(huán)境污染、推動(dòng)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)有重要意義。中國(guó)建筑電氣化處于快速發(fā)展階段截至201726%1186kWh48%429%。中國(guó)各省市的電氣化進(jìn)程差異明顯。建筑人均用電量與各地居民的消費(fèi)12化率的南北差異較為明顯。中國(guó)建筑人均用電量距發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家有明顯差距。中國(guó)的建筑人均用電量距但是這并不意味著中國(guó)未來(lái)的建筑人均用電量就不一就會(huì)增長(zhǎng)到歐美國(guó)家的水平，還應(yīng)考慮到用能模式的差異和能效水平的提升。圖I中國(guó)建筑人均用電量和建筑電氣化率圖II分省市建筑人均用電量和居民消費(fèi)水平圖III中國(guó)與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的建筑人均用電量建筑電氣化政策風(fēng)靡全球加州推進(jìn)建筑電氣化致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)2045年碳中和的目標(biāo)。2019年伯克利50201920302050203047%的建筑電氣化。歐洲供暖電氣化以實(shí)現(xiàn)供熱和制冷領(lǐng)域減碳86%等目標(biāo)。2018年歐洲學(xué)4（HeatRoadmapEurope4鎮(zhèn)集中供熱區(qū)域，大型熱泵在集中供熱總熱量中的占比將達(dá)到25199043486%；6%2015，205010.4TWh100%可再生能源。需求側(cè)：建筑用電量和建筑電氣化率提升用電量的自然增長(zhǎng)。建筑用電量與居民消費(fèi)水平強(qiáng)相關(guān)，因此隨著人們生活水平的提高，電器數(shù)量加使用強(qiáng)度均會(huì)自然增長(zhǎng)。如果未來(lái)全國(guó)平均用電量水平向目前一線城市看齊，建筑人均用電量約2800kWh，4kWh持續(xù)降低建筑供暖能耗強(qiáng)度，幾乎抵消北方地區(qū)建筑供暖面積增加導(dǎo)致的能耗增長(zhǎng)。此消彼長(zhǎng)，建筑電氣化率也會(huì)自然增長(zhǎng)。生活熱水電能替代。對(duì)于居住建筑和公建建筑的集中式生活熱水系統(tǒng)，由于存在熱損失大的問(wèn)題，采用分散式電熱水器能夠有效實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能，并且促進(jìn)可再生能源的利用；對(duì)于公共建筑的生活熱水系統(tǒng)，將其從蒸汽供熱系統(tǒng)中獨(dú)立出來(lái)，采用高效電熱泵作為替代熱源，具有顯著的節(jié)能效益。北方城鎮(zhèn)供暖電能替代。北方城鎮(zhèn)集中供熱管網(wǎng)普及，是充分利用城市內(nèi)部或周邊的熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)和工業(yè)余熱的基礎(chǔ)。這些熱源比電熱泵等電供暖電氣化技術(shù)更加高效和經(jīng)濟(jì)，應(yīng)該作為城鎮(zhèn)集中供暖的優(yōu)選熱源。再考慮到冬季光電、水電等可再生能源量減少的問(wèn)題，供暖電氣化技術(shù)主要用于補(bǔ)充供熱缺口，可以在城鎮(zhèn)集中供熱中占據(jù)一定比例，但不應(yīng)過(guò)分追求完全電氣化。北方農(nóng)村供暖電能替代。北方農(nóng)村推廣空氣源熱泵等采暖電氣化技術(shù)是替代散煤、減少大氣污染物排放的有效途徑。然而，單純“煤改電”而不增強(qiáng)建筑保溫性能會(huì)導(dǎo)致農(nóng)戶(hù)用電成本增加和農(nóng)村配電網(wǎng)增容承壓。從提高室內(nèi)舒適度、降低農(nóng)戶(hù)的采暖成本、保障電力安全等角度出發(fā)，炊事電能替代。一方面隨著城鎮(zhèn)居民越來(lái)越多地選擇在外用餐，炊事能耗從住宅向公建轉(zhuǎn)移，因此需要更多關(guān)注公建炊事電氣化；另一方面，居民用戶(hù)的炊事習(xí)慣改變是住宅炊事電氣化的難點(diǎn)，需要加以引導(dǎo)，同時(shí)推廣高效電炊具，通過(guò)效率差解決價(jià)格差。圖IV建筑電氣化率提升技術(shù)途徑建筑新型供配電技術(shù)的特征建筑新型供配電技術(shù)的特征的優(yōu)勢(shì)的布局從分離到融合；另一方面終端建筑的用電需求也將從原來(lái)的剛性需求（用戶(hù)用多少、電網(wǎng)供多少）轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槿嵝孕枨螅芍袛?、可調(diào)節(jié)。另外，低壓直流配電技術(shù)的應(yīng)用使建筑供配電系統(tǒng)簡(jiǎn)單化，促進(jìn)能效提升、可靠性提高和能量智能化控制的發(fā)展。圖V“光儲(chǔ)柔直”建筑新型供配電技術(shù)建筑電氣化促進(jìn)低碳發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)2050年建筑電氣化率超過(guò)90%，才有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和或1.5基LBNL90%（即建筑電氣化率90%90%5.521.5氣化和建筑能耗總量控制政策。2030203021大氣污染物有效控制。在電氣化情景下，2050NOxSO2排放量相比202082%83%，75%77%。促進(jìn)建筑供配電產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)7000圖VI建筑碳排放量預(yù)測(cè)（含終端直接碳排放和電力間接碳排放）圖VII建筑用電量預(yù)測(cè)圖VIII建筑直接一次能耗量建筑電氣化的發(fā)展目標(biāo)圖IX建筑電氣化的發(fā)展目標(biāo)2018 2025 2035 2050電力城市分布式光伏覆蓋率0.5%1.4%2.7%3.0%建筑非化石電力供給比例29%40%55%90%建筑供電可靠率99.94%99+X%電力人均建筑用電量（kWh）1180200026003400消費(fèi)建筑電氣化率48%60%75%90%指標(biāo)建筑用電量占全社會(huì)用電量比重26%30%35%40%項(xiàng)目建筑光伏裝機(jī)容量（GW）20 3001000建筑儲(chǔ)能配置容量（GWh）/ 25300“光儲(chǔ)柔直”建筑面積（億平米）/ 20200近期：2020-2025十四五期間隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)水平提高和電能替代工作在清潔供暖、生活熱水等領(lǐng)域的持續(xù)推進(jìn)，人均建筑用電量將維持略高于十三五期間的年均增速，預(yù)20252000kWh（按照發(fā)電煤耗法計(jì)算。城市分布式光伏覆蓋率達(dá)到1.4%，建筑非化40%99%0.X%集成化技術(shù)尚處于初期發(fā)展階段，主要依賴(lài)于國(guó)家制定政策推動(dòng)示范工程落地，預(yù)計(jì)到20255000（不含工業(yè)建筑50kWh。中期：2025~20352025~2035年期間，考慮到社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速率變緩，人均建筑用電量2035年人均建筑用電量達(dá)2600kWh75%（按發(fā)電煤耗法算。城市分布式2.7%55%20302025~2035年期間迅速發(fā)展，2035300GW、建筑儲(chǔ)能累計(jì)配置25GWh20億平米。年建筑領(lǐng)域高度電氣化2035~20502050法3.0%90%20502001000GW300GWh。S.W.O.T.策略XS.W.O.T.分析SO策略-瞄準(zhǔn)新需求，解決新問(wèn)題。發(fā)展高效電能替代和新型建筑電力促進(jìn)城市低碳能源轉(zhuǎn)型和源網(wǎng)荷儲(chǔ)控一體化發(fā)展；在城市和農(nóng)村發(fā)展新型建筑電力系統(tǒng)，促進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展、新農(nóng)村建筑，促進(jìn)能源供給清潔化、智能化，并依托國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)循環(huán)。WO策略-利用既有創(chuàng)新政策、平臺(tái)和資金。建立示范建筑或示范區(qū)域。試行新技術(shù)和新政策，整合產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，制定迭代標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，檢驗(yàn)技術(shù)政策的可行性和用戶(hù)的接受度。ST策略-推廣既有成熟技術(shù)。借鑒其他領(lǐng)域的既有技術(shù)，實(shí)現(xiàn)建筑與電網(wǎng)、交通、工業(yè)的協(xié)同發(fā)展，減小技術(shù)迭代周期，降低設(shè)備成本；推廣電熱泵技術(shù)，發(fā)揮電氣化的減排優(yōu)勢(shì)和安全優(yōu)勢(shì)，推動(dòng)高效電能替代，尤其是農(nóng)村散煤燃燒和城鎮(zhèn)燃煤鍋爐；推廣光伏技術(shù)，充分利用本地分布式可再生能源，降低用戶(hù)用能成本，甚至在可再生能源豐富的農(nóng)村為用戶(hù)創(chuàng)收。WT策略-爭(zhēng)取新的創(chuàng)新政策、平臺(tái)和資金。國(guó)家根據(jù)遠(yuǎn)期低碳發(fā)展目標(biāo)做頂層規(guī)劃，明確建筑電氣化的發(fā)展路徑；對(duì)示范工程和創(chuàng)新技術(shù)給予財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼和政策支持，鼓勵(lì)電能替代，新型建筑電力系統(tǒng)的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、設(shè)備研發(fā)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)編制。建筑電氣化的政策建議圖XI建筑電氣化的利益相關(guān)方加強(qiáng)建筑電氣化機(jī)制研究。研究適應(yīng)分布式能源和儲(chǔ)能發(fā)展的電價(jià)機(jī)技術(shù)和補(bǔ)償機(jī)制。激勵(lì)建筑電氣化的利益相關(guān)方。加強(qiáng)宣傳增強(qiáng)重要性高且影響力強(qiáng)的影響力弱的主體有序參與到建筑電氣化過(guò)程。建筑電氣化與電網(wǎng)、交通、工業(yè)協(xié)同發(fā)展建筑與電網(wǎng)。建筑是城市電網(wǎng)的消費(fèi)主體，建筑電氣化提升自身用電量促進(jìn)電力消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)。采用“光儲(chǔ)柔直”供配電技術(shù)的新型建筑具有較強(qiáng)99%的可靠性需求。此外，建筑靈活性提升還能促進(jìn)建筑分布式能源系統(tǒng)參與城市電網(wǎng)的調(diào)峰和調(diào)頻服務(wù)，促進(jìn)消納更多可再生能源；削減建筑負(fù)荷峰值，緩解小區(qū)配電網(wǎng)增容壓力和城市電網(wǎng)調(diào)峰壓力。建筑與交通。BC80%，快充的必要性逐漸降低。再考慮到電動(dòng)車(chē)充電對(duì)配電變壓器負(fù)荷峰值的影響，建筑周邊充電樁的運(yùn)行模式應(yīng)以慢充為主，并且需要有序充電、雙向充放電技術(shù)的支撐。未來(lái)住宅小區(qū)和公共建筑的配電網(wǎng)與汽車(chē)充電樁需要統(tǒng)籌建設(shè)，建筑用電與交通用電的耦合程度也將越來(lái)越高。建筑與工業(yè)。建筑電氣化依托于光伏、儲(chǔ)能、直流配電等建筑新型供配電技術(shù)。工業(yè)和民用建筑是城市中的兩大應(yīng)用場(chǎng)景。新型供配電技術(shù)會(huì)在不同場(chǎng)景中協(xié)同發(fā)展。例如低壓直流配電技術(shù)在建筑場(chǎng)景中主要用于促進(jìn)建筑光伏和儲(chǔ)能的應(yīng)用，增強(qiáng)建筑電力靈活性；而在工業(yè)場(chǎng)景中則主要用于治理電壓暫降問(wèn)題，保障供電可靠性。儲(chǔ)能電池在汽車(chē)工業(yè)中主要關(guān)注能量密度和行駛安全；在建筑場(chǎng)景中則主要關(guān)注儲(chǔ)能經(jīng)濟(jì)性和消防安全。圖XII建筑電氣化與電網(wǎng)、交通、工業(yè)的協(xié)同關(guān)系ExecutiveSummaryNewEraforBuildingEnergySavingDevelopmentGlobalconsensusonlow-carbondevelopment.Morethan170nationsintheworldhavesignedtheParisAgreement,settingthegoaloftheglobaltemperaturerisetowellbelow2degreesCelsiusabovepre-industriallevelsandpursuingeffortstolimitthetemperatureriseto1.5degreesCelsius.AsamaincarbonemissionsChinaactivelypushesforwardsloweremissionsandintensifiesnationallydeterminedcontribution.Morepowerfulpoliciesandmeasuresshallbeadoptedtohavecarbondioxideemissionreachedatitspeakby2030andachievecarbonneutralby2060.EspeciallythecurrentpandemicleadstoslowdownofglobaleconomicgrowthsothatmuchattentionispaidtogreeneconomicRenewableenergybooming.RenewableelectricalenergyisthebasicapproachtoreplacingfossilMassiveresearchesshowthatrenewableenergyinChinaisexpectedtoreachmorethan50%inprimaryenergyconsumptionby2050.Buildingelectrificationisanecessaryapproachtopromoteapplicationofrenewableelectricalenergyinthebuildingfield.Resourceutilizationofbuildingenvelope.energyandsolarenergyarecharacterizedwithlowdensityandscattereddistribution,therebymainlydevelopinginadistributedBuildingroofsandverticalsurfacesexposedtosufficientsolarradiationwouldbecomethebestplacestoinstallthesolarphotovoltaicsystem.IthasbeenroughlyestimatedthattheroofsurfaceofcivilbuildingsinChinahavingaccesstothesolarphotovoltaicsystemexceeds10billionm2andtheannualenergyoutputreaches2trillionkWh.Buildingexteriorsshallbetakenasamainresourceforbuildingpowerconsumptionandanewapproachtobuildingenergysaving.Sustainabledevelopmentofurbanenergysystem.Highlypenetratedrenewableenergiesposeseverechallengestothesafetyandreliabilityoftheurbanenergysystem.Powersupplies,nets,loadsandenergystorageshallbesubjecttointeractioncontrol,andseveralenergies(suchasthermalandelectrical)shallworktogethertocopewiththechallengeandachievesustainabledevelopmentoftheurbanenergysystem.Itisbecomingthenewsectorofbuildingenergysavingtoexploredistributedbuildingenergystorageandadjustableloadsandtoimprovetheflexibilityofbuildingenergies,exceptenergyefficiencyupgrade.Economicrevivalofruralandwesternregions.RichlandresourcesinruralandwesternregionsarethefoundationtodevelopsuchrenewableenergiesassolarwindenergyandbiomassElectrificationofdomestichotwater,heatingandfarmingequipmentcanthereforeimproveenergyefficiencyanddecreasetheutilizationofscatteredcoal,playingasignificantroleinimprovingthelivingconditionsoffarmers,reduceenvironmentalpollutionandpromoteruraleconomicdevelopment.RapiddevelopmentofbuildingelectrificationinChinaofbuildingelectrificationinChina.Until2017,thebuildingelectricityconsumptionamountsto26%oftotalelectricityconsumption,thebuildingpercapitaelectricityconsumption1186kWhandthebuildingelectrificationrate48%.Comparedwith2001data,thebuildingpercapitaelectricityconsumptionincreasesby4timesandthebuildingelectrificationraterisesby29%.FigureIBuildingPerCapitaHouseholdElectricityConsumptionandBuildingElectrificationrateSignificantelectrificationdifferenceinprovincesandcities.Thebuildingpercapitaelectricityconsumptionrelatestodifferenthouseholdeconomicconsumptionlevels.In1citiessuchasBeijingandShanghai,thebuildingelectricityconsumptionreaches3000kWhpercapita,morethan2timesoftheaveragenationalamount.Inaddition,theheatingdemanddiffersinthesouthandnorth,resultinginasignificantlydifferentbuildingelectrificationrate.FigureIIBuildingPerCapitaElectricityConsumptionandHouseholdConsumptionLevelinProvincesandCitiesGapinBuildingelectricityconsumptionbetweenChinaandDevelopedCountries.Chinawitnessesasignificantgapinbuildingpercapitaelectricityconsumptioncomparedwithdevelopedcountries,andtherebyagreatpotentialinbuildingelectrificationgrowth.However,itdoesnotmeanthattherelatednumbermayrisetothelevelofdevelopedcountries,becausethedifferenceinenergyutilizationandupgradeofenergyefficiencyshallbeconsidered.FigureIIIBuildingPerCapitaElectricityConsumptioninChinaandDevelopedCountriesBuildingElectrificationSweepsaroundtheBuildingelectrificationpushedbyCaliforniacontributestothegoalofcarbonneutralby2045.Berkeleytooktheleadinenactinglawstostopusingnaturalgasinnewbuildingsin2019.Morethan25citiesandtownsthenfollowedBerkeleytotakemeasuresdemandingorstronglysupportingelectrificationinnewbuildings.Theother50citiesandtownsareconsideringtheformulationofsimilarlawsandregulationstopushforwardbuildingelectrification.Asrequiredby2019LosAnglesSustainableDevelopmentPlan,thegoalofzeroemissionfornewbuildingsshallbereachedby2030andallexistingbuildingsshallbesubjecttozeroemissionreconstructionby2050.SanJoseaimstoachievethegoalof47%buildingelectrification.HeatingelectrificationinEuropeaimstoachievethegoalof86%carbonemissionreductioninheatingandcoolingsectors.TheEuropeanscholarshaveestablishedHeatRoadmapEurope4in2018.Inthecitiesandtownswithcentralizedheattheheatsuppliedbylargeheatpumpsshallreachto25%ofthetotalheat.Fortheregionsinaccessibletocentralizedheatsupplynetworks,theheatsuppliedbyhigh-efficientheatpumpsshallbecloseto50%ofthetotalheatinthatregion.Thecarbonemissioninthefieldofheatingandcoolingsectorswillreduceby4.34milliontonsor86%by2050,comparedwiththatof1990.Thenewcarbonemissionreductiontechnologyallowsdecreasingtheannualinvestmentcostby6%,comparedwiththeregularcarbonemissionreductiontechnology.Thefossilenergyconsumptioninthefieldofheatingandrefrigerationwillreduceby10.4TWhin2050,comparedwiththatof2015.Atthesametime,naturalgasandlow-efficientheatingtechnologiesshallbefullyreplaced,andtheheatingandrefrigerationtechnologiesbringabout100%renewableenergiesinthewholeenergysystem.Demandside:BuildingelectricityconsumptionandelectrificationrateupgradetechnologyFigureIVTechnicalApproachtoIncreasingBuildingElectrificationRateNaturalGrowthofElectricityConsumptionThebuildingelectricityconsumptionrelatestothehouseholdconsumptionlevel.Asthelivingconditionskeepimproving,thenumberofelectricalappliancesandusingfrequencyshallwitnessnaturalgrowth.Iftheaverageelectricityconsumptionnationwideisclosetothatin1cities,i.e.,about2800kWhofthebuildingpercapitaelectricityconsumption,thenationwidebuildingelectricityconsumptionshallexceed4trillionkWh.Atthesametime,Buildingenergysavingpoliciescontinuetoreduceenergyconsumptioninbuildingheating,almostoffsettingtheenergyconsumptiongrowthresultedinbyriseinthebuildingheatingsurfaceofthenorthernregion.Thebuildingelectrificationrateshallthereforeseenaturalgrowth.ElectrificationofDomesticHotFortheCentralizeddomestichotwatersystemofresidentialbuildingsandpublicbuildings,heatlossissignificant.Scatteredelectricwaterheatersshallbethenusedtoachieveefficientenergysavingandpromotetheutilizationofrenewableenergies.Thedomestichotwatersystemofpublicbuildingsshallbeseparatedfromthesteamheatingsystem.Thehighly-efficientelectricheatpumpshallbeusedasaheatsourceandobviousenergysavingbenefitsexpected.ElectrificationofSpaceHeatinginNorthUrbanAreas.DistrictheatingnetworksarepopularinnorthurbanChina,whichprovideconvenienceforrecoveringthesurplusheatinsidepowerplantsandindustrialplants.Comparedwithelectricheatingtechnologiessuchastheelectricheatpump,thesurplusheatismoreefficientandeconomical;thus,itshallbetakenasapriorityforcentralizedheatinginnorthurbanChina.Theelectricheatingtechnologiescanbeusedforanadditionalheatsupplywhensurplusheatisnotenough,accountingforacertainpercentageinthecentralizedheatsupplysysteminnorthurbanChina,butfullelectrificationshallnotbepursued,especiallyinconsiderationoftheseasonaldecreaseofrenewableenergyinwinter.ElectrificationofSpaceHeatinginNorthRuralAreas.Electricheatingtechnologiesastheair-sourceheatpumparepromotedinnorthruralareas,whichisaneffectiveapproachtoreplacingscatteredcoalandreducingatmospherepollutantdischarge.Itshouldbenotedthatthethermalinsulationpropertiesofbuildingsshallalsobestrengthenedtoavoidincreaseinpowercostsforfarmersandthecapacityofpowergrids.Electrificationshallkeeppacewiththestructuralinsulationanddemandresponsetechnologiesinnorthruralresidentialbuildings.ElectrificationofCooking.Ononehand,moreattentionshallbethenattachedtocookingelectrificationinpublicbuildings,becausemoreandmoreurbanresidentschoosetoeatoutandenergyconsumptionforcookingmovesfromresidentialhousestopublicbuildings.Ontheotherhand,itisimportanttochangethecookinghabitofhouseholds.Cookingelectrificationguidanceisneeded.Highly-efficientelectriccookingfacilitiesshallbepromoted.SupplySide:NewBuildingPowerSupplyandDistributionFigureVNewBuildingPowerSupplyandDistributionTechnologyFeaturesofthenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributionsystem.Distributedphotovoltaicshallbeinstalledinsidebuildings.Energystoragebatteriesshallbeprovidedinthesystem;adjustableandinterruptiblesmartelectricbuildingequipment,includingsmartair-conditioning,smartlightingandsmartchargingpiles;andanpowerdistributionsystem.Theadvantagesofthenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributionsystem.Comparedwiththetraditionalone,powersupplies,storageenergyandloadswereintegratedtogether.Thebuildingpowerdemandwillbeflexible,becausemoreinterruptibleandadjustableloadsareconnected.Inaddition,thepowerdistributionsystemwillpromoteenergyimprovepowersupplyreliability,andsimplifyenergycontrol.BuildingElectrificationPromotesLow-CarbonDevelopmentandIndustryUpgrade90%ofbuildingelectrificationratein2050isrequiredtoreachthegoalsof1.5degreeandcarbonneutral.BasedonLBNLbuildingenergyconsumptionmodel,buildingelectrificationscenarioisbuiltinthisproject.Underthereasonableincreasingtrendofbuildingenergydemands,two“90%”(buildingelectrificationrate90%andnon-fossilpowerrate90%)arerequiredtoreducethecarbonemissionofbuildingsectorto0.55billiontons.Thisscenariocansatisfythegoalof2degree.Asforthegoalsof1.5degreeandcarbonneutral,moreaggressivepoliciesonbuildingelectrificationandbuildingenergydemandcontrolshouldbeapplied.Carbonemissionforbuildingswillreachitspeakby2030.Carbonemissionofbuildingsectorundertheelectrificationscenariowillreachitspeakaroundat2.1billiontonsby2030.ThegoaloflowcarbondevelopmentinChinaissupported.Buildingsectorcarbonemissionwillkeepreducingafter2030andstandatlowerthan1billiontonsCO2peryearby2050,75%ofthenumberunderthereferencescenario,supportingtheenergysysteminChinameetsthegoalofcarbonemissionunderthe2KscenarioestablishedintheParisAgreement.Atmospherepollutiontreatment.TheNOxandSO2emissionsundertheelectrificationscenarioreduceby82%and83%comparedwiththosein2020,andby75%and77%comparedwiththoseofreferencescenario,respectively.Upgradeofbuildingpowersupplyanddistributionindustry.Thenewbuildingpowersystempushesforwarditscoretechnologies,suchasdistributeddistributedpowerstorage,DCbuildingpowerdistribution,flexiblebuildingenergycontrolandenergyinternet.AscalculatedbytheAllianceofDCBuilding,themarketscaleofaffiliatedindustrialchainscanreachRMB0.7trillionperFigureVICO2emissionofbuildingsector(includingdirectemissionsinend-useandindirectemissionsinpowerplants)FigureVIIElectricityconsumptionofbuildingsectorFigureVIIIPrimaryenergyconsumptioninend-useofbuildingsectorStrategyforBuildingElectrificationSOstrategy-newneeds.Develophigh-efficientelectrificationreplacementandthenewbuildingpowersystem;improvetheefficiencyandreliabilityofthesystem;achievebuildingenergycontrolandresponsetodemand;promoteurbanlow-carbonenergytransformationandintegrationofpowergrid,load,storageandcontrol.WOstrategy-Makingfulluseofexistingpoliciesandfunds.Establishsamplebuildingsorzones;trynewtechnologiesandpolicies;integrateindustrialchains;formulateiterativestandards;verifythetechnologyandpolicyarefeasibleandacceptabletothecustomer.STstrategy-Promotingproventechnique.Integrateddevelopmentofbuildings,powergrids,trafficandindustriesallowsreducingthetechnologyiterationperiodandequipmentcost.Taketheadvantagesofemissionreductionandsafetyforelectrification,topushhighly-efficientenergyreplacement,especiallyscatteredcoalinruralareasandcoalboilersincities.Takefulluseoflocaldistributedrenewableenergiestoreducetheconsumptioncostofcustomers,evenbringingbenefitsinvillages.WTstrategy-Makenewpoliciesandfunds.planningisgivennationallyasperthelong-termlow-carbondevelopmentobjective,confirmingthedevelopmentapproachtobuildingelectrification.Financialsubsidiesandpolicysupportaregiventosampleprojectsandinnovativetechnologies.Stimulateelectrificationreplacement;promotetechnicalinnovation,equipmentR&Dandstandardspreparationforthenewbuildingpowersystem.FigureIXS.W.O.T.AnalysisofBuildingElectrificationObjectiveofBuildingElectrificationFigureXObjectiveofBuildingElectrification2018 2025 2035 2050PowerUrbandistributedPVcoveragerate0.5%1.4%2.7%3.0%SupplyNon-fossilenergyrateofbuildingsupplypower29%40%55%90%Reliabilityofbuildingpowersupply99.94%99+X%Power

Building per capita

2000 2600 3400Consumptionconsumption/kWhBuildingelectrificationrate48%60%75%90%Rateofbuildingelectricityconsumptiontototalelectricityconsumption26%30%35%40%ProjectBuildingPVinstallcapacity/GW20 803001000ConstructionBuildingpowerstoragecapacity/GWh/ 0.525300BuildingareaofthebuildingsapplyingthenewBuildingPowerSupplyandDistribution/billionm2/ 0.05220Short-term:2020-2025rapidgrowthinbuildingpowerconsumptionandemergingofnewbuildingpowersystem. Duringthe14thfive-yearprogram,theeconomiclevelwillkeepimproving;suchsectorsascleanheatinganddomestichotwaterarebeingpushedforward.Thebuildingpercapitapowerconsumptionisexpectedtobeslightlyhigherthantheannualaveragegrowthshowedforthe13thfive-yearprogramandreach2000kWhwith60%ofthebuildingelectrificationrateby2025(calculatedaspercoalconsumptionpowergeneration).UrbandistributedPVdeviceswillcover1.4%andNon-fossilpowersuppliesforbuildingsamountto40%.Thepowergridwillsupply99%powerwhiletherestof0.X%willbesolvedbybuildings,ensuringthereliabilityofpowerThenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributiontechnologiesarestillattheinitialdevelopmentstage,mainlyrelyingonnationalpoliciestopushforwardsampleprojects.Ithasbeenforecastedthat,by2025,thebuildingsapplyingsuchtechnologieswillcover50millionm2;thetotalinstalledcapacityofPVdevices(excludingindustrialbuildings)willreach80GWandthescaleofbuildingenergystoragestandat0.5millionkWh.Mid-term:2025-2035slowgrowthinbuildingpowerconsumptionandboomingofnewbuildingpowersystem.During2025~2035,economicgrowthwillslowdown,aswellasthebuildingpercapitapowerconsumptionandtherateofelectrification.Itisexpectedthatthebuildingpercapitapowerconsumptionreaches2600kWhwith75%ofthebuildingelectrificationrateby2035(calculatedaspercoalconsumptionpowergeneration).UrbandistributedPVdeviceswillcover2.7%andNon-fossilpowersuppliesforbuildingsamountto55%.Thenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributiontechnologieswillturnouttobematureandprominentineconomicbenefit.TheChinesegovernmenthascommittedtohavingacarbonemissionpeakaround2030.Thedurationof2025~2035willwitnessarapidgrowthofrenewableenergytechnologiesandthenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributionsystem.Ithasbeenforecastedthat,by2035,thebuildingsapplyingsuchtechnologieswillcover2billionm2;thetotalinstalledcapacityofPVdeviceswillreach300GWandthescaleofbuildingenergystoragestandat25GWh.Long-term：2035-2050highlyelectrifiedbuildingmaturenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributiontechnologies,andhighlypenetratedrenewableenergiesDuring2035~2050,thebuildingpowerconsumptionwillstillkeepastablegrowthandelectrificationconstantlypushforward.Itisforecasted,by2050,thatallbuildingswillbeelectrified,exceptinthenorthernregionsadoptingcombinedheatandpowergenerationandruralareasadoptingbio-mass;thebuildingpercapitapowerconsumptionreaches3400kWhwith90%ofthebuildingelectrificationrate(calculatedaspercoalconsumptionpowergeneration).UrbandistributedPVdeviceswillcover3.0%andNon-fossilpowersuppliesforbuildingsamountto90%.Thenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributiontechnologieswillbeadoptedinalargescaleanditisforecastedthat,by2050,thebuildingsapplyingsuchtechnologieswillcovermorethan20billionm2;thetotalinstalledcapacityofPVdeviceswillreach1000GWandthescaleofbuildingenergystoragestandat300GWh.SuggestiononbuildingelectrificationpoliciesConfirmthegoalofbuildingelectrification.Suchagoalshallbeindicatedinspecialplans,suchasenergies,electricpower,renewableenergies,responsetoclimatechange,energy-savingandemissionreduction,buildingenergysavingandgreenbuildings.Completetechnicalstandardsandcodes.Buildingelectrificationrelatedtechnicalstandardsandcodesshallbeprepared,suchasDCbuildings,powergridfriendlybuildings,energyinternetusers.Strengthenresearchonbuildingelectrificationtechnologies.Thenewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributionsystem,whichintegratesdistributeddistributedstoragebatteries,flexiblepowerconsumptionandloadsandDCpowerdistributiontechnologiesshallbestudied.Strengthenresearchonbuildingelectrificationsystems.Thefollowingshallbestudied,i.e.,theelectricpricesystemadaptedtodistributedenergiesandenergystoragedevelopment,integrateddesignandoperationtechnologiesforbuildingsandelectriccarchargingpiles,interactiontechnologiesofbuildingsandurbanpowergridsandthecompensationsystem.Promotetheconstructionofsampleprojects.Establishsampleprojectsapplyingnewelectrificationtechnologies;planandimplementhighly-efficientelectrificationtechnologiesandnewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributiontechnologies;putnewpoliciesintotrial.Supportthedevelopmentofnewbuildingpowersupplyanddistributionindustrialchain.FinancialsupportshallbegivenattheinitialdevelopmentstageofbuildingDCpowerdistributionandbuildingenergystorage.Stimulatestakeholderstobuildelectrification.Strengthenpublicitytoallowthoseentitiesofimportanceandstronginfluencetounderstandthewayhowbuildingelectrificationdevelopsanditsobjective.Strengthenguidanceforthoseentitiesofimportancebutlowinfluencetograduallybeinvolvedinbuildingelectrification.Attentionshallbeattachedforthoseentitiesofstronginfluencebutlowimportancetounderstan