尼泊爾央行（NRB）：尼泊爾當(dāng)前宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融狀況截至2024年1月

1

NepalRastraBank

EconomicResearchDepartment,Baluwatar,Kathmandu

CurrentMacroeconomicandFinancialSituationofNepal

(BasedonSixMonthsDataEndingMid-January,2023/24)

MajorHighlights

·CPI-basedInflationremained5.26percentony-o-ybasis.

·Importsdecreased3.Ipercent,exportsdecreased7.2percentandtradedeficitdecreased2.6

percent.

·Remittancesincreased25.3percentinNPRtermsand22.6percentinUSDterms.·BalanceofPaymentsremainedatasurplusofRs.273.52billion.

·GrossforeignexchangereservesstoodatNPR1816.57billionand13.69billioninUSDterms.

·NepalGovernmentexpenditureamountedtoRs.566.62billionandrevenuecollectionRs.496.50billion.

·Broadmoney(M2)increased6.4percent.Ony-o-ybasis,M2expanded14.3percent.

·DepositsatBFIsincreased6.6percentandprivatesectorcreditincreased4percent.Ony-o-ybasis,depositsincreased14.9percentandprivatesectorcreditincreased4.9percent.

Inflation

ConsumerPriceInflation(CPI)

1.They-o-yconsumerpriceinflationmoderated

to5.26percentinmid-January2024compared

to7.26percentayearago.Foodandbeverage

categoryinflationstoodat5.77percent

whereasnon-foodandservicecategory

inflationstoodat4.85percentinthereview

month.

2.They-o-ypriceindexofghee&oil,

vegetables,meat&fishandtransportation

sub-categoriesexhibitedadownwardtrendin

mid-January2024.Additionally,priceindex

ofspicesandsugar&sugarproductsarealsomoderating.Duringthereviewmonth,they-o-yimportpriceindex,salaryandwagerateindexandthewholesalepriceindexalsomoderated.Thesefactorscontributedtoamoderatedconsumerpriceinflation.

3.UndertheFoodandBeverageCategory,y-o-ypriceindexofghee&oil,vegetableandmeat&fishsub-categorydecreased13.07percent,1.04percentand0.06percentrespectivelyinthereviewmonth.They-o-ypriceindexofspicessub-categoryincreased35.60percent,cerealgrains&their

2

Growthrate(inpercent)

125

100

75

50

25

0

2019/20-25

2023/24

-50

2020/21

2021/22

2022/23

products11.38percent,pulses&legumes11.14percent,milkproducts&eggs10.29percentandfruit10.15percent.

4.UndertheNon-FoodandServicesCategory,y-o-ypriceindexoftransportationsub-categorydecreased1.62percentinthereviewmonth.They-o-ypriceindexofrecreation&culturesub-categoryincreased12.84percent,miscellaneousgoods&services9.73percent,education8.92percent,furnishing&householdequipment5.18percentandclothes&footwear4.96percent.

Table1:y-o-yConsumerPriceInflation(Percent)

Mid-Month

Particulars

Dec/Jan2022/23

Nov/Dec2023

Dec/Jan2023/24

OverallInflation

7.26

4.95

5.26

FoodandBeverage

5.62

5.10

5.77

Non-foodandService

8.57

4.84

4.85

5.They-o-yconsumerpriceinflationinthe

KathmanduValley,Terai,Hilland

Mountainregionstoodat5.76percent,4.78

percent,5.40percentand6.57percent

respectivelyinthereviewmonth.Such

inflationintheseregionswere6.93percent,

7.49percent,7.30percentand6.69percent

respectivelyayearago.

WholesalePriceInflation(WPI)

6.They-o-ywholesalepriceinflationstoodat3.36percentinmid-January2024comparedto9.82percentayearago.

7.They-o-ywholesalepriceindexofconsumptiongoods,intermediategoodsandcapitalgoodsincreased6.16percent,1.99percentand2.71percentrespectively.They-o-ywholesalepriceindexofconstructionmaterialdecreased1.08percentinthereviewmonth.

SalaryandWageRateIndex(SWRI)

8.They-o-ysalaryandwagerateindexincreased5.56percentinmid-January2024comparedto10.27percentayearago.They-o-ySalaryindexandWagerateindexincreased1.05and6.92percentrespectivelyinthereviewmonth.

ExternalSector

MerchandiseTrade

Chart2:ForeignTrade(SixMonths)

ExportsImportsTradeDeficit

9.Duringthereviewperiod,merchandise

exportsdecreased7.2percentto

Rs.74.97billioncomparedtoa

decreaseof32percentinthesame

periodofthepreviousyear.

Destination-wise,exportstoIndia

decreased12.8percentwhereasexports

toChinaandothercountriesincreased

370.9percentand1.3percent

respectively.Exportsofzincsheet,

particleboard,juice,readymade

garments,gingeramongothers

increasedwhereasexportsofpalmoil,

soyabeanoil,tea,woolencarpet,rosin,amongothersdecreased.

3

10.Inthereviewperiod,merchandiseimportsdecreased3.1percenttoRs.768.17billioncomparedtoadecreaseof20.7percentayearago.Destination-wise,importsfromIndiaandothercountriesdecreased2.4percentand25.7percentrespectivelywhileimportsfromChinaincreased34percent.Importsofreadymadegarments,electricalequipment,M.S.wirerod,bars,andcoils,textiles,transportequipment,vehicleandothervehiclespareparts,amongothersincreasedwhereasimportsofgold,crudesoyabeanoil,crudepalmoil,rice/paddy,petroleumproducts,amongothersdecreased.

11.Basedoncustomspoints,exportsfromBhairahawa,DryPort,Jaleswor,Kanchanpur,Krishnanagar,Mechi,Nepalgunj,Rasuwa,TatopaniandTribhuwanAirportCustomsOfficesincreasedwhereasexportsfromalltheothermajorcustomspointsdecreasedinthereviewperiod.Ontheimportside,importsfromBhairahawa,DryPort,Jaleshwor,Kanchanpur,Krishnanagar,Nepalgunj,RasuwaandTatopaniCustomsOfficesincreasedwhereasimportsfromalltheothermajorcustomspointsdecreasedinthereviewperiod.

12.Totaltradedeficitdecreased2.6percenttoRs.693.20billionduringthereviewperiod.Suchadeficithaddecreased19.2percentinthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Theexport-importratiodeclinedto9.8percentinthereviewperiodfrom10.2percentinthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.

13.Duringthereviewperiod,merchandiseimportsfromIndiaagainstpaymentinconvertibleforeigncurrencyamountedRs.76.25billion.SuchamountwasRs.60.56billioninthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

CompositionofForeignTrade

14.AspertheBroadEconomicCategories(BEC),theintermediateandfinalconsumptiongoodsaccountedfor55.9percentand43.9percentofthetotalexportsrespectively,whereastheratioofcapitalgoodsintotalexportsremainednegligibleat0.2percentinthereviewperiod.Inthesameperiodofthepreviousyear,theratioofintermediate,capitalandfinalconsumptiongoodsremained54.2percent,0.05percentand45.8percentoftotalexportsrespectively.

15.Ontheimportsside,theshareofintermediategoodsremained49.2percent,capitalgoods8.7percentandfinalconsumptiongoods42.1percentinthereviewperiod.Suchratioswere53.1percent,8.8percentand38.1percentrespectivelyinthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

Export-ImportPriceIndex

16.They-o-yunitvalueexportpriceindex,basedoncustomsdata,increased5.7percentwhereastheimportpriceindexdecreased2.8percent.Asaresult,thetermsoftrade(ToT)indexincreased8.7percentinthereviewperiod.

Services

17.NetservicesincomeremainedatadeficitofRs.36.06billioninthereviewperiodcomparedtoadeficitofRs.36.22billioninthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

18.Undertheserviceaccount,travelincomeincreased44.4percenttoRs.39.56billioninthereviewperiodwhichwasRs.27.40billioninthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

19.Undertheserviceaccount,travelpaymentsincreased60.6percenttoRs.92.87billion,includingRs.58.95billionforeducation.SuchpaymentswereRs.57.82billionandRs.35.36billionrespectivelyinthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

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Remittances

20.Remittanceinflowsincreased25.3percenttoRs.733.22billioninthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseof24.3percentinthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.IntheUSDollarterms,remittanceinflowsincreased22.6percentto5.52billioninthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseof13.9percentinthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

21.Inthereviewperiod,thenumberofNepaliworkers,bothinstitutionalandindividual,takingfirst-timeapprovalforforeignemploymentstandsat207,970andtakingapprovalforrenewentrystandsat135,435.Inthepreviousyear,suchnumberswere275,643and142,548respectively.

22.Nettransferincreased24percenttoRs.799.51billioninthereviewperiod.Suchatransferhadincreased22.7percentinthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

CurrentAccountandBalanceofPayments

23.ThecurrentaccountremainedatasurplusofRs.161.62billioninthereviewperiodagainstadeficitofRs.35.57billioninthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.IntheUSDollarterms,thecurrentaccountregisteredasurplusof1.21billioninthereviewperiodagainstadeficitof279.6millioninthesameperiodlastyear.

24.Inthereviewperiod,capitaltransferdecreased30percenttoRs.3.11billionandnetforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)remainedapositiveofRs.4.53billion.Inthesameperiodofthepreviousyear,capitaltransferamountedtoRs.4.43billionandandnetFDIamountedtoRs.749.4million.

25.BalanceofPayments(BOP)remainedatasurplusofRs.273.52billioninthereviewperiodagainstasurplusofRs.92.15billioninthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.IntheUSDollarterms,theBOPremainedatasurplusof2.06billioninthereviewperiodagainstasurplusof697.4millioninthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.

ForeignExchangeReserves

26.Grossforeignexchangereserves

increased18.0percenttoRs.1816.57

billioninmid-January2024from

Rs.1539.36billioninmid-July2023.In

theUSdollarterms,thegrossforeign

exchangereservesincreased16.9percent

to13.69billioninmid-January2024from

11.71billioninmid-July2023.

27.Ofthetotalforeignexchangereserves,

reservesheldbyNRBincreased18.9

percenttoRs.1600.23billioninmid-January2024fromRs.1345.78billioninmid-July2023.

Reservesheldbybanksandfinancialinstitutions(exceptNRB)increased11.8percenttoRs.216.35billioninmid-January2024fromRs.193.59billioninmid-July2023.Theshareof

Indiancurrencyintotalreservesstoodat22.5percentinmid-January2024.

ForeignExchangeAdequacyIndicators

28.Basedontheimportsofsixmonthsof2023/24,theforeignexchangereservesofthebankingsectorissufficienttocovertheprospectivemerchandiseimportsof14.5months,andmerchandiseandservicesimportsof12.1months.Theratioofreserves-to-GDP,reserves-to-importsandreserves-

5

to-M2stoodat33.8percent,100.9percentand27.7percentrespectivelyinmid-January2024.Suchratioswere28.6percent,83percentand25percentrespectivelyinmid-July2023.

PriceofOilandGold

29.Thepriceofoil(CrudeOilBrent)intheinternationalmarketdecreased4.2percenttoUSdollar79.89perbarrelinmid-January2024fromUSdollar83.43perbarrelayearago.Thepriceofgoldincreased5.6percenttoUSdollar2013.20perounceinmid-January2024fromUSdollar1907.15perounceayearago.

ExchangeRate

30.Nepalesecurrencyvis-à-vistheUSdollardepreciated0.91percentinmid-January2024frommid-July2023.Ithaddepreciated1.79percentinthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.ThebuyingexchangerateperUSdollarstoodatRs.132.38inmid-January2024comparedtoRs.131.17inmid-July2023.

FiscalSituation

NepalGovernmentExpenditureandRevenue

Table2:GovernmentExpenditureandRevenue(SixMonths)

Particulars

Amount(Rs.inBillion)

PercentageChange

2021/22

2022/23

2023/24

2022/23

2023/24

TotalExpenditure

Recurrent

Expenditure

CapitalExpenditureFinancial

Management

506.69

406.41

50.81

49.47

576.35

455.13

53.46

67.77

566.62

437.38

49.24

80.00

13.7

12.0

5.2

37.0

-1.7

-3.9

-7.9

18.1

TotalRevenue

TaxRevenue

Non-TaxRevenue

542.05

493.99

48.06

458.99

405.27

53.72

496.50

443.55

52.95

-15.3

-18.0

11.8

8.2

9.4

-1.4

31.AccordingtoMinistry

ofFinance,Financial

ComptrollerGeneral

Office(FCGO),the

totalexpenditureofthe

NepalGovernment

stoodatRs.566.62

billionduringthesix

monthsof2023/24.

Comparedtothe

Source:FinancialComptrollerGeneralOffice

growthof13.7percent

inthelastfiscalyear,governmentexpendituredecreasedby1.7percentinthereviewperiod.Therecurrentexpenditure,capitalexpenditureandfinancialexpenditureamountedtoRs.437.38billion,Rs.49.24billionandRs.80billionrespectivelyinthereviewperiod.

32.Inthereviewperiod,totalrevenuemobilizationofNepalGovernment(includingtheamounttobetransferredtoprovincialandlocalgovernments)stoodatRs.496.50billion.Revenuemobilizationrecordedagrowthof8.2percentinthereviewperiodinconstrasttodecreaseof15.3percentinthesameperiodoflastfiscalyear.ThetaxrevenueamountedRs.443.55billionandnontaxrevenueRs.52.95billioninthereviewperiod(Table2).

CashBalanceofGovernment

33.CashBalanceatvariousaccountsoftheGoNmaintainedwithNRBremainedRs.236.71billion(includingProvincialGovernmentsandLocalGovernmentAccount)inmid-January2024.SuchbalancewasRs.65.36billioninmid-July2023.

6

35.Broadmoney(M2)increased6.4percentinthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseof3.5percentinthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Ony-o-ybasis,M2expanded14.3percentinmid-January2024.

36.Thenetforeignassets(NFA,afteradjustingforeignexchangevaluationgain/loss)increasedRs.273.52billion(18.8percent)inthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseofRs.92.15billion(8.0percent)inthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.

38.Domesticcreditincreased2.6percentinthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseof2.8percentinthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Ony-o-ybasis,domesticcreditincreased8.6percentinmid-January2024.

39.MonetarySector'snetclaimsongovernmentdecreased8.4percentinthereviewperiodincontrasttoanincrementof1.6percentinthe

ProvincialGovernment

ExpenditureandRevenue

34.Inthereviewperiod,totalexpenditureofprovincialgovernmentsstoodRs.40.88billionandresourcemobilizationstoodRs.86.05billionrespectively.ThetotalresourcemobilizationofprovincialgovernmentsincludesthegrantsandrevenuetransferredfromtheNepalGovernmentamountingRs.64.41billionandrevenueandotherreceiptsoftheprovincialgovernmentsamountingRs.21.64billioninthereviewperiod.

MonetarySituation

MoneySupply

Growth(InPercent)

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

Chart4:MonetaryAggregates

(y-o-y,Mid-January)

M2

M1

2019/202020/212021/22202

2/23

2023/24

37.Reservemoneyincreased1.2percentinthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseof2.8percentinthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Ony-o-ybasis,reservemoneyincreased8.6percentinmid-January2024.

DomesticCredit

Table3:DepositsatBanksandFinancial

Institutions(PercentageShare)

Deposits

Mid-July

Mid-January

2022

2023

2023

2024

Demand

Saving

Fixed

Other

8.9

27.6

55.7

7.8

7.7

26.6

58.8

6.8

7.8

25.6

60.3

6.3

6.8

26.8

59.9

6.6

correspondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Ony-o-ybasis,suchclaimsincreased22.1percentinmid-January2024.

40.MonetarySector'sclaimsontheprivatesectorincreased4.5percentinthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseof3.3percentinthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Ony-o-ybasis,suchclaimsincreased5.8percentinmid-January2024.

7

44.PrivatesectorcreditfromBFIsincreasedRs.192.64billion(4.0percent)inthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincrementofRs.137.33billion(3.0percent)inthecorrespondingperiodofpreviousyear.Ony-o-ybasis,credittotheprivatesectorfromBFIsincreased4.9percentinmid-January2024.

45.ThesharesofprivatesectorcreditfromBFIstonon-financialcorporationandhouseholdstandat63.2percentand36.8percent

DepositMobilization

41.DepositsatBanksandFinancialInstitutions(BFIs)increasedRs.377.07billion(6.6percent)inthereviewperiodcomparedtoanincreaseofRs.215.14billion(4.2percent)inthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.Ony-o-ybasis,depositsatBFIsexpanded14.9percentinmid-January2024.

42.Theshareofdemand,savingandfixeddepositsintotaldepositsstoodat6.8percent,26.8percentand59.9percentrespectivelyinmid-January2024.Suchshareswere7.8percent,25.6percentand60.3percentrespectivelyayearago.

43.TheshareofinstitutionaldepositsintotaldepositofBFIsstoodat36.6percentinmid-January2024.Suchasharewas36.6percentalsoinmid-January2023.

CreditDisbursements

Growth(InPercent)

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Chart5:DepositandCreditofBFIs

(y-o-y,Mid-January)

2019/202020/212021/222022/232023/24

DepositsofBFIsPrivatesectorcredit

respectivelyinmid-January2024.Suchshareswere64.9percentand35.1percentayearago.

46.Inthereviewperiod,privatesectorcreditfromcommercialbanks,developmentbanksandfinancecompaniesincreased4.0percent,4.4percentand2.4percentrespectively.

47.Inthereviewperiod,outofthetotaloutstandingcreditoftheBFIs,11.4percentisagainstthecollateralofcurrentassets(suchasagriculturalandnon-agriculturalproducts)and67.7percentagainstlandandbuilding.Suchratioswere12.2percentand67.2percentrespectivelyayearago.

48.Inthereviewperiod,outstandingloanofBFIstotheagriculturesectorloanincresed1.1percent,productionsector8.0percent,constructionsector4.1percent,transportation,communicationandpublicsector10.6percent,wholesaleandretailsector2.0percent,serviceindustrysector4.5percentandconsumablesector7.0percent.

49.Inthereviewperiod,termloanextendedbyBFIsincreased13.2percent,cashcreditloan27.5percent,trustreceipt(import)loan5.8percent,realestateloan(includingresidentialpersonalhomeloan)4.7percent,andmarginnatureloan10.5percentwhereasoverdraftloandecreased41.0percent(mainlyduetoreclassificationofloanfromthelastyear)andhirepurchaseloandecreased19.9percent.

8

LiquidityManagement

50.Inthereviewperiod,NRBprovidedatotalliquidityofRs.515.11billiontotheBFIsonaturnoverbasis,ofwhich,Rs.1.20billionwasavailedthroughstandingliquidityfacility(SLF)andRs.513.91billionthroughOvernightLiquidityFacility(OLF);whereasatotalliquidityofRs.315.55billionwasabsorbedthroughdepositcollectionauction.Inthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear,Rs.3099.46billionnetamountofliquiditywasinjectedthroughvariousinstrumentsofopenmarketoperationsincludingSLF.

51.Inthereviewperiod,NRBinjectedliquidityofRs.366.14billionthroughthenetpurchaseofUSD2.76billionfromforeignexchangemarket.LiquidityofRs.358.90billionwasinjectedthroughthenetpuchaseofUSD2.76billioninthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear.

52.TheNRBpurchasedIndiancurrency(INR)equivalenttoRs.242.08billionthroughthesaleofUSD1.82billioninthereviewperiod.INRequivalenttoRs.296.22billionwaspurchasedthroughthesaleofUSD2.28billioninthecorrespondingperiodofpreviousyear.

Refinance,ConcessionalLoanandBusinessContinuityLoan

53.TheoutstandingamountofrefinanceprovidedbyNRBremainedRs.948.5millioninmid-January2024.

54.Asofmid-January2024,theoutstandingconcessionalloanremainedRs.155.40billionextendedto133,174borrowers.Ofwhich,Rs.104.73billionhasbeenextendedto52,872borrowersforselectedcommercialagricultureandlivestockbusinesses.Likewise,Rs.48.60billionloanhasbeenextendedto77,918womenentrepreneurs.Total2,384borrowershaveavailedRs.2.07billionconcessionalloaninotherspecifiedsectors.

55.BusinesscontinuityloanwasextendedtotheCovid-19affectedtourism,cottage,smallandmediumindustriesforpaymentofsalariestoworkersandemployeesinlinewith'BusinessContinuityLoanProcedure,2020'.Nooutstandingloanextendedunderthisprovisionasofmid-January2024.

Inter-bankTransaction

56.Inthereviewperiod,BFIsinter-banktransactionsamountedRs.2574.20billiononaturnoverbasisincludingRs.2316.98billioninter-banktransactionsamongcommercialbanksandRs.257.22billionamongotherfinancialinstitutions(excludingtransactionsamongcommercialbanks).Inthecorrespondingperiodofthepreviousyear,suchtransactionswasRs.2025.12billionincludingRs.1843.08billionamongcommercialbanksandRs.182.04billionamongotherfinancialinstitutions(excludingtransactionsamongcommercialbanks).

9

InterestRates

Table4:WeightedAverageInterestRate

(percent)

Types

Mid-January2023

Mid-

January

2024

91-daystreasurybillsrate

10.89

3.37

Inter-bankrateofBFIs

7.53

2.86

Baserate

Commercialbanks

10.91

9.35

Developmentbanks

-

11.49

Financecompanies

-

12.77

Depositrate

Commercialbanks

8.51

7.32

Developmentbanks

-

8.55

Financecompanies

-

9.62

LendingRate

Commercialbanks

12.79

11.38

Developmentbanks

-

13.14

Financecompanies

-

14.09

57.Theweightedaverage91-daystreasury

billsrateremainedat3.37percentinthe

sixthmonthof2023/24,whichwas10.89

percentinthecorrespondingmonthayear

ago.Theweightedaverageinter-bank

transactionrateamongBFIs,whichwas

7.53percentayearago,decreasedto2.86

percentinthereviewmonth.

58.Theaveragebaseratesofcommercial

banks,developmentbanksandfinance

companiesstood9.35percent,11.49

percentand12.77percentrespectivelyin

thesixthmonthof2023/24.Theaverage

baserateofcommercialbankswas10.91

percentinthecorrespondingmonthayear

ago.

59.Weightedaveragedepositratesof

commercialbanks,developmentbanksand

financecompaniesstood7.32percent,8.55

percentand9.62percentrespectivelyinthe

reviewmonth.Weightedaveragedepositrateofcommercialbankswas8.51percentayearago.Likewise,theweightedaveragelendingrateofcommercialbanks,developmentbanksandfinancecompaniesstood11.38percent,13.14percentand14.09percentrespectivelyinthereviewmonth.Sucharateofcommercialbankswas12.79percentinthecorrespondingmonthayearago.

FinancialAccess

60.ThetotalnumberofBFIslicensedbyNRBremained112inmid-January2024(Tab