ofEconomicGrowth宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·

ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)-加州大學(xué)-詹姆斯·2024/3/30ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·QuestionsWhataretheprincipaldeterminantsoflong-runeconomicgrowth?Whatequilibriumconditionisusefulinanalyzinglong-rungrowth?Howquicklydoesaneconomyheadforitssteady-stategrowthpath?ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·QuestionsWhateffectdoesfasterpopulationgrowthhaveonlong-rungrowth?Whateffectdoesahighersavingsratehaveonlong-rungrowth?ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Long-RunEconomic

Growth...isthemostimportantaspectofhowtheeconomyperformscanbeacceleratedbygoodeconomicpoliciescanberetardedbybadeconomicpoliciesofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Long-RunEconomicGrowthPoliciesandinitialconditionsaffectgrowththroughtwochannelstheirimpactontheleveloftechnologymultipliestheefficiencyoflabortheirimpactonthecapitalintensityoftheeconomythestockofmachines,equipment,andbuildingsthattheaverageworkerhasathisorherdisposalofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Technologyleadstoahigherefficiencyoflaborskillsandeducationofthelaborforceabilityofthelaborforcetohandlemodernmachinestheefficiencywithwhichtheeconomy’sbusinessesandmarketsfunctionEconomistsaregoodatanalyzingtheconsequencesofbettertechnologyhavelesstosayaboutthesourcesofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·CapitalIntensityThereisadirectrelationshipbetweencapital-intensityandproductivityTwoprincipaldeterminantsinvestmentefforttheshareoftotalproductionsavedandinvestedinordertoincreasethecapitalstockinvestmentrequirementshowmuchofnewinvestmentisusedtoequipnewworkerswiththestandardlevelofcapitalortoreplaceworn-outorobsoletecapitalofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModelAlsocalledtheSolowmodelSteady-statebalanced-growthequilibriumthecapitalintensityoftheeconomyisstabletheeconomy’scapitalstockandlevelofrealGDParegrowingatthesameratetheeconomy’scapital-outputratioisconstantofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModelFirstcomponentistheproductionfunctiontellsushowtheproductiveresourcesoftheeconomycanbeusedtoproduceanddeterminethelevelofoutputCobb-DouglasproductionfunctionofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModelParametersofthemodelEistheefficiencyoflaborahigherlevelofEmeansthatmoreoutputperworkercanbeproducedforeachpossiblevalueofthecapitalstockperworkermeasureshowfastdiminishingmarginalreturnstoinvestmentsetinofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModel0<<1alevelofnearzeromeansthattheextraamountofoutputmadepossiblebyeachadditionalunitofcapitaldeclinesveryquicklyasthecapitalstockincreasesofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.1-TheCobb-DouglasProductionFunctionforParameterNearZeroofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModel0<<1alevelofnearonemeansthatthenextadditionalunitofcapitalmakespossiblealmostaslargeanincreaseinoutputasthelastunitofcapitalalevelofequaltoonemeansthatchangesinoutputareproportionaltochangesincapitalofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.2-TheCobb-DouglasProductionFunctionforParameterNear1ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.3-TheCobb-DouglasProductionFunctionisFlexibleofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModelGrowthinlaborforce(L)assumethatLisgrowingataconstantrate(n)ifthisyear’slaborforceisequalto10millionandthegrowthrateis2%peryear,nextyear’slaborforcewillbeofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.4-ConstantProportionalLabor-ForceGrowth(atRaten=2PercentperYear)ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModelGrowthintheefficiencyoflabor(E)assumethatEisgrowingataconstantproportionalrate(g)ifthisyear’sefficiencyoflaboris$10,000andthegrowthrateis1.5%peryear,nextyear’sefficiencyoflaborwillbeofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.5-ConstantProportionalGrowth

intheEfficiencyofLabor

(atRateg=1.5PercentperYear)ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModelSavingandinvestmentassumethataconstantshareofrealGDPissavedandinvestedeachyear(s)capitalstockdoesnotgrowbyfullamountofgrossinvestmentrepresentsthefractionofthecapitalstockthatwearsoutorisscrappedeachyearofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.6-ChangesintheCapitalStockofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·StandardGrowthModelAnexampleofcapitalaccumulationcurrentrealGDP=$8trillioncurrentcapitalstock=$24trillionsavingsrate=20%depreciationrate=4%ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.7-AdditionstoandSubtractionsfromtheCapitalStockofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·SummaryofStandardGrowthModelThreeassumptionslaborforcegrowsatproportionalratenefficiencyoflaborgrowsatproportionalrategthereisaconstantproportionofrealGDPsavedandinvestedeachyear(s)ThecapitalstockchangesovertimeduetoinvestmentanddepreciationCobb-DouglasproductionfunctionofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·EquilibriuminStandardGrowthModelKeyeconomicvariablesinthegrowthmodelareneverconstantEquilibriumoccurswhenthevariablesaregrowingtogetheratthesameproportionalrateSteady-statebalancedgrowthoccurswhenthecapital-outputratioisconstantovertimeofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·ThreeMathematicalRulesTheproportionalgrowthrateofaproduct(PQ)isthesumoftheproportionalgrowthratesofeachPandQTheproportionalgrowthrateofaquotient(E/Q)isthedifferenceoftheproportionalgrowthratesofthedividend(E)andthedivisor(Q)ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·ThreeMathematicalRulesTheproportionalgrowthrateofaquantityraisedtoanexponent(Qy)isequaltotheexponent(y)timesthegrowthratesofthequantity(Q)ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofCapitalperWorkerTheproportionalgrowthrateofcapitalperworker[g(kt)]isSincethisisagrowthrateofaquotient,itwillbeequaltothegrowthrateofcapitalminusthegrowthrateoflabor(n)ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.8-CalculatingtheProportionalGrowthRateoftheCapital-per-WorkerRatioofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofCapitalperWorkerThegrowthrateofcapitalstockisNextyear’scapitalstockisMakingthesubstitution,wegetofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofCapitalperWorkerTheproportionalgrowthrateofcapitalperworkerisLetrepresentthecapital-outputratio(K/Y)ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofCapitalperWorkerAllelseequal,therateofgrowthofcapitalperworkerwillbelowerthehighertherateoflaborforcegrowth(n)thehighertherateofdepreciation()thelowertherateofsaving(s)thehigherthecapital-outputratio()ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.9-Capital-per-WorkerGrowthasaFunctionoftheCapital-OutputRatioofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofOutputperWorkerWiththeCobb-Douglasproductionfunction,outputperworkerisThegrowthrateofoutputperworker[g(yt)]willbeofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.10-CalculatingtheGrowthRateofOutputperWorkerofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofOutputperWorkerSinceg(kt)isequalto[(s/

t)--n],wecansubstituteandsimplifytogetofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofCapital-OutputRatioEquilibriumoccurswhenthecapital-outputratio(=K/Y)isconstantThegrowthrateofthecapital-outputratio[g(

t)]isequaltothedifferenceinthegrowthrateofcapital[g(kt)]andthegrowthrateofoutput[g(yt)]ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofCapital-OutputRatioWecanmakesubstitutionsfor[g(kt)]and[g(yt)]

andsimplifytogetofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·GrowthofCapital-OutputRatioThegrowthrateofthecapital-outputratiodependsonthebalancebetweeninvestmentrequirements(n+g+)investmenteffort(s)Allelseequal,ahigherinvestmentrequirementwillmeanalowergrowthrateofthecapital-outputratioofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.11-Growthofthe

Capital-OutputRatioofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Steady-StateGrowthEquilibriumoccurswhenthecapital-outputratioisconstantIf

t>[s/(n+g+)]thecapital-outputratiowillbeshrinkingIf

t<[s/(n+g+)]thecapital-outputratiowillbegrowingofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.12-GrowthoftheCapital-OutputRatioasaFunctionoftheLeveloftheCapital-OutputRatioofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Steady-StateGrowthEquilibriumIf

t=[s/(n+g+)]thegrowthrateofthecapital-outputratiowillbezerothecapital-outputratiowillbestable(neithershrinkingnorgrowing)*=[s/(n+g+)]istheequilibriumlevelofthecapital-outputratioofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.13-ConvergenceoftheCapital-OutputRatiotoItsSteady-StateValueofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Steady-StateGrowthEquilibriumWhenthecapital-outputratio(

t)isatitssteadystatevalue(*)outputperworker[g(yt)]isgrowingatproportionalrategcapitalstockperworkerisgrowingatthesameproportionalrategtheeconomywidecapitalstockisgrowingattheproportionalraten+grealGDPisalsogrowingatproportionalraten+gofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Steady-StateGrowthPathWhenthecapital-outputratioisatitsequilibriumvalue(*),theeconomyisonitssteady-stategrowthpathFromChapter3,weknowthataslongasweareonthesteady-stategrowthpathofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.14-CalculatingSteady-State

OutputperWorkeralongthe

Steady-StateGrowthPathofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Steady-StateGrowthPathAnincreaseinthecapital-outputratioincreasesthecapitalstockdirectlyandindirectlyextraoutputgeneratedbynewcapitalissourceforadditionalsavingandinvestmentThisleadstoamultipliereffectofanythingthatraises*ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.16-TheGrowthMultiplier:TheEffectofIncreasingtheCapital-OutputRatioontheSteady-StateOutputperWorkerofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Steady-StateGrowthPathLetthegrowthmultiplier()equal[/1-]Outputperworkeralongthesteady-stategrowthpathwillbeofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Steady-StateGrowthPathTocalculateoutputperworkerwhentheeconomyisonitssteady-stategrowthpathcalculatethesteady-statecapital-outputratio[*=s/(n+g+)]amplifythesteady-statecapital-outputratio(*)bythegrowthmultiplier[=/(1-)]multiplybythecurrentvalueoftheefficiencyoflabor(Et)ofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.15-OutputperWorkerontheSteady-StateGrowthPathofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·ReachingtheSteady-StateGrowthPathHowlongdoesittakeforthecapital-outputratiotoadjusttoitssteady-statevalue(*)?aneconomythatisnotonitssteady-stategrowthpathwillcloseafraction[(1-)(n+g+)]ofthegapbetweenthesteadystatevalue(*)anditscurrentvalue(t)inayearofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.17-WestGermanConvergencetoItsSteady-StateGrowthPathofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·LaborForceGrowthThefasterthegrowthofthelaborforce,thelowerwillbetheeconomy’ssteady-statecapital-outputratiothelargertheshareofcurrentinvestmentthatmustgotoequipnewworkerswiththecapitaltheyneedAsudden,permanentincreaseinlaborforcegrowthwillloweroutputperworkeronthesteady-stategrowthpathofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.18-LaborForceGrowthand

GDP-per-WorkerLevelsofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·Figure4.19-EffectsofaRiseinPopulationGrowthontheEconomy’sGrowthPathofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·IncreasesintheDepreciationRateThehigherthedepreciationrate,thelowerwillbetheeconomy’ssteady-statecapital-outputratioexistingcapitalstockwearsoutandmustbereplacedmorequicklyAnincreaseinthedepreciationratewillloweroutputperworkeronthesteady-stategrowthpathofEconomicGrowth(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)加州大學(xué)詹姆斯·ProductivityGrowthThefasterthegrowthrateofproductivity,thelowerwillbetheeconomy’ssteady-stateca