全球液化天然市場(chǎng)前景報(bào)告2024（英）

Cautionary

noteThecompaniesinwhichShellplcdirectlyandindirectlyownsinvestmentsareseparatelegalentities.InthisLNGOutlook“Shell”,“ShellGroup”and“Group”aresometimesusedforconveniencewherereferencesaremadetoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneral.Likewise,thewords“we”,“us”and“our”arealsousedtorefertoShellplcanditssubsidiariesingeneralortothosewhoworkforthem.Thesetermsarealsousedwherenousefulpurposeisservedbyidentifyingtheparticularentityorentities.‘‘Subsidiaries’’,“Shellsubsidiaries”and“Shellcompanies”asusedinthisLNGOutlookrefertoentitiesoverwhichShellplceitherdirectlyorindirectlyhascontrol.EntitiesandunincorporatedarrangementsoverwhichShellhasjointcontrolaregenerallyreferredtoas“jointventures”and“jointoperations”,respectively.“Jointventures”and“jointoperations”arecollectivelyreferredtoas“jointarrangements”.EntitiesoverwhichShellhassignificantinfluencebutneithercontrolnorjointcontrolarereferredtoas“associates”.Theterm“Shellinterest”isusedforconveniencetoindicatethedirectand/orindirectownershipinterestheldbyShellinanentityorunincorporatedjointarrangement,afterexclusionofallthird-partyinterest.Shell’snetcarbonintensityAlso,inthisLNGOutlookwemayrefertoShell’s“NetCarbonIntensity”,whichincludesShell’scarbonemissionsfromtheproductionofourenergyproducts,oursuppliers’carbonemissionsinsupplyingenergyforthatproductionandourcustomers’carbonemissionsassociatedwiththeiruseoftheenergyproductswesell.Shellonlycontrolsitsownemissions.TheuseofthetermShell’s“NetCarbonIntensity”isforconvenienceonlyandnotintendedtosuggesttheseemissionsarethoseofShellplcoritssubsidiaries.Shell’snet-ZeroEmissionsTargetShell’soperatingplan,outlookandbudgetsareforecastedforaten-yearperiodandareupdatedeveryyear.Theyreflectthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandwhatwecanreasonablyexpecttoseeoverthenexttenyears.Accordingly,theyreflectourScope1,Scope2andNetCarbonIntensity(NCI)targetsoverthenexttenyears.However,Shell’soperatingplanscannotreflectour2050net-zeroemissionstargetand2035NCItarget,asthesetargetsarecurrentlyoutsideourplanningperiod.Inthefuture,associetymovestowardsnet-zeroemissions,weexpectShell’soperatingplanstoreflectthismovement.However,ifsocietyisnotnetzeroin2050,asoftoday,therewouldbesignificantriskthatShellmaynotmeetthistarget.Forward-LookingStatementsThisLNGOutlookcontainsforward-lookingstatements(withinthemeaningoftheU.S.PrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformActof1995)concerningthefinancialcondition,resultsofoperationsandbusinessesofShell.Allstatementsotherthanstatementsofhistoricalfactare,ormaybedeemedtobe,forward-lookingstatements.Forward-lookingstatementsarestatementsoffutureexpectationsthatarebasedonmanagement’scurrentexpectationsandassumptionsandinvolveknownandunknownrisksanduncertaintiesthatcouldcauseactualresults,performanceoreventstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedinthesestatements.Forward-lookingstatementsinclude,amongotherthings,statementsconcerningthepotentialexposureofShelltomarketrisksandstatementsexpressingmanagement’sexpectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projectionsandassumptions.Theseforward-lookingstatementsareidentifiedbytheiruseoftermsandphrasessuchas“aim”,“ambition”,‘‘a(chǎn)nticipate’’,‘‘believe’’,‘‘could’’,‘‘estimate’’,‘‘expect’’,‘‘goals’’,‘‘intend’’,‘‘may’’,“milestones”,‘‘objectives’’,‘‘outlook’’,‘‘plan’’,‘‘probably’’,‘‘project’’,‘‘risks’’,“schedule”,‘‘seek’’,‘‘should’’,‘‘target’’,‘‘will’’andsimilartermsandphrases.ThereareanumberoffactorsthatcouldaffectthefutureoperationsofShellandcouldcausethoseresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseexpressedintheforward-lookingstatementsincludedinthisOutlook,including(withoutlimitation):(a)pricefluctuationsincrudeoilandnaturalgas;(b)changesindemandforShell’sproducts;(c)currencyfluctuations;(d)drillingandproductionresults;(e)reservesestimates;(f)lossofmarketshareandindustrycompetition;(g)environmentalandphysicalrisks;(h)risksassociatedwiththeidentificationofsuitablepotentialacquisitionpropertiesandtargets,andsuccessfulnegotiationandcompletionofsuchtransactions;(i)theriskofdoingbusinessindevelopingcountriesandcountriessubjecttointernationalsanctions;(j)legislative,judicial,fiscalandregulatorydevelopmentsincludingregulatorymeasuresaddressingclimatechange;(k)economicandfinancialmarketconditionsinvariouscountriesandregions;(l)politicalrisks,includingtherisksofexpropriationandrenegotiationofthetermsofcontractswithgovernmentalentities,delaysoradvancementsintheapprovalofprojectsanddelaysinthereimbursementforsharedcosts;(m)risksassociatedwiththeimpactofpandemics,suchastheCOVID-19(coronavirus)outbreak,regionalconflicts,suchasRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,andasignificantcybersecuritybreach;and(n)changesintradingconditions.Noassuranceisprovidedthatfuturedividendpaymentswillmatchorexceedpreviousdividendpayments.Allforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisLNGOutlookareexpresslyqualifiedintheirentiretybythecautionarystatementscontainedorreferredtointhissection.Readersshouldnotplaceunduerelianceonforward-lookingstatements.AdditionalriskfactorsthatmayaffectfutureresultsarecontainedinShellplc’sForm20-FfortheyearendedDecember31,2022(availableat/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.htmland).Theseriskfactorsalsoexpresslyqualifyallforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisOutlookandshouldbeconsideredbythereader.Eachforward-lookingstatementspeaksonlyasofthedateofthisOutlook,February14,2024.NeitherShellplcnoranyofitssubsidiariesundertakeanyobligationtopubliclyupdateorreviseanyforward-lookingstatementasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherinformation.Inlightoftheserisks,resultscoulddiffermateriallyfromthosestated,impliedorinferredfromtheforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisLNGOutlook.Shellexpectstopublishits2024EnergyTransitionStrategyonMarch14,2024,whichwillincludeanupdateonShell’senergytransitionstrategyandsetoutShell’sclimatetargetsandambitionsforthefuture.ForwardLookingNon-GAAPmeasuresThisLNGOutlookmaycontaincertainforward-lookingnon-GAAPmeasuressuchas[cashcapitalexpenditure]and[divestments].Weareunabletoprovideareconciliationoftheseforward-lookingNon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresbecausecertaininformationneededtoreconcilethoseNon-GAAPmeasurestothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasuresisdependentonfutureeventssomeofwhichareoutsidethecontrolofShell,suchasoilandgasprices,interestratesandexchangerates.Moreover,estimatingsuchGAAPmeasureswiththerequiredprecisionnecessarytoprovideameaningfulreconciliationisextremelydifficultandcouldnotbeaccomplishedwithoutunreasonableeffort.Non-GAAPmeasuresinrespectoffutureperiodswhichcannotbereconciledtothemostcomparableGAAPfinancialmeasurearecalculatedinamannerwhichisconsistentwiththeaccountingpoliciesappliedinShellplc’sconsolidatedfinancialstatements.ThecontentsofwebsitesreferredtointhisreportdonotformpartoftheLNGOutlook2024.Wemayhaveusedcertainterms,suchasresources,inthisLNGOutlookthattheUnitedStatesSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)strictlyprohibitsusfromincludinginourfilingswiththeSEC.InvestorsareurgedtoconsidercloselythedisclosureinourForm20-F,FileNo1-32575,availableontheSECwebsite.ShellplcFebruary20242SummaryIndustry,heatingandemergingAsiatodriveLNGRisingglobaldemandforLNGdemandgrowthexpectedtokeeppacewithnewsupply

Demandfornaturalgashaspeakedinsomeregionsandgloballyissettopeakafter2040.Inthemediumterm,latentdemandforLNG–

especiallyinAsia–issettoconsumenew

TheglobalLNGmarketwillcontinuegrowingsupplythatisexpectedtocomeontotheintothe2040s,mostlydrivenbyChina’smarketinthesecondhalfofthe2020s.industrialdecarbonisationandstrengtheningdemandinotherAsiancountries.

TooffsetfallingdomesticgasproductioninSouth-eastAsia,significantinfrastructureinvestmentwillbeneededtoaccesstheLNGthatthesecountriesneedfortheireconomicdevelopment.Gaspricesmorestablein2023butvolatilitylingeredinatightmarket

GlobaltradeinLNGexpandedslightlyin2023,withtightsuppliesconstraininggrowthandpricesstayingabovehistoricaverages.

Amilderwinter,highgasstoragelevels,modesteconomicrecoveryinChinaandlowerdemandinEuropehelpedbalancetheglobalgasmarketduring2023.ShellplcIndustry,heatingandemergingAsiatodriveLNGdemandgrowth1Gasusepeaksinsomemarkets,continuestogrowgloballyLNGtoplayincreasinglyimportantroleinglobalgassupplyPeakgasdemandbydecadeGasdemandbysectorNaturalgassupplysourceBCMBCMRussia2040s+CAGR5.0004.5004.0003.5003.0002.5002.0001.5001.0005005.0004.5004.0003.5003.0002.5002.0001.5001.0005003.6%Japan2010sChina2040s-0.2%USA2030s0.5%Indonesia2040s+Nigeria2040s+India2040s+Regions2010s2020s2030s2040s+002023204020232040SouthAfrica2040sLNGElectricityBuildingsOtherIndustryTransportArgentina2030sPipelineimportsDomesticproductionSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedataCAGR:CompoundannualgrowthrateShellplcFebruary20245Industry,buildingstobekeydemanddriversinemergingAsiaLNGexpectedtomeetmorethan75%ofthisgrowthEmergingAsianaturalgasdemandEmergingAsiagassupplysourceBCMBCMCAGR5.1%70060050040030020010001.2001.00080060040020004.4%0.5%202320402023SouthAsiaTransport204020232040MainlandChinaSouth-eastAsiaDomesticPipelineimportsLNGElectricityIndustryBuildingsOtherSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedataShellplcFebruary20246IndustrymustaddressCOemissions2GasesexpectedtoplayanimportantroleinreducingsectoremissionsComparativeemissionsChinaexposuretoEUCBAMWaystodecarboniseChinesesteelMtCO/yr.2022%2100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%0.4$bnChinasteelsectorTop3EuropeanemittersJapan5.3$bnAviation17.3$bnInternationalshipping05001.0001.500GermanyUKTurkeyFertiliserIronandsteelAluminiumGas-drivenGas-supportedOtherSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,IEAdata,NetZeroRoadmapforChina’ssteelindustrystudyforGlobalEfficiencyIntelligence&LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory2023CBAM:CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism.ValueofChineseexportstoEUthatwillbecoveredbyCBAMatimplementation.CCUS:carboncapture,utilisationandstorage(includesbio-energyCCUS).ThreelargestEuropeanemitters:Germany,UK,TurkeyShellplcFebruary20247PolicyandinvestmentcontinuesforgasprojectswithenvironmentalandemissionsbenefitsAsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBankEnergydemandandairqualityinBeijingenergyprojectfunding2016-2023BCMeUnhealthydays$M1.80025200180160140120100801.6001.4001.2001.000800600400200201510560402000020162017201820192020202120222023201420152016201720182019202020212022ElectricityinfrastructureGasGreenfinancingRenewablegenerationGasdemandCoaldemandUnhealthydaysSources:ShellinterpretationofAsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBankdata,BeijingMunicipalBureauofStatisticsandAirQualityIndexdataUnhealthydays:definedasanAirQualityindexwithPM2.5greaterthan150μg/m3ShellplcFebruary20248GascurrentlyplayskeyroleinmeetingheatingdemandElectrificationwillneedinvestment,supplychainandbuildingsimprovementsEnglandandWalesbuildings:gas*andtotalBuildingsgasdemandelectricitydemandBCM(2022)GWh/d3.5003.0002.5002.0001.5001.0005000UKMainlandChinaEuropeanUnionUSA33Gas*Electricity**Sources:ShellinterpretationofUKNationalGridESOandUKNationalGasdata2023,WoodMacKenziedata2023*LocalDistributionZones(low-pressuregassuppliedtobuildings)inEnglandandWales**TotalelectricitydemandforEnglandandWalesShellplcFebruary20249Renewables,supportedbygas,erodescoal’sroleinAsiaChinaSouthAsiaSouth-eastAsiaCapacityGWGenerationshareCapacityGWGenerationshareCapacityGWGenerationshare7.0006.0005.0004.0003.0002.0001.000070%60%50%40%30%20%10%1.4001.2001.00080070%1.000900800700600500400300200100080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%6004002000%00%2022Coal20302035Nuclear204020222030203520402022203020352040GasRenewablesHydroOther%coalshare%gasshareSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedataShellplcFebruary202410Gasprovidesgridstability,enablingahighershareofrenewablesingenerationVariablehourlypowergenerationinSpainVariabledailypowergenerationintheNetherlandsGWh/hGWh/d5,04,54,03,53,02,52,01,550040030020010001,00,50,0-10018-feb19-feb20-feb21-feb22-feb23-feb23242526272829300102032023novnovnovnovnovnovnovnovdecdecdecGasWind&SolarHydroNuclearOtherCoalGasWindSolarNuclearOtherImportsExportsSource:ShellinterpretationofEuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsdata2023Spanishfigurescalculatedfrom15-minuteintervalsOtherincludesbiomass,otherrenewablesandcoalShellplcFebruary202411MarinesectorcontinuestoreduceemissionsthroughLNGLiquefiedgasescancombinewithtechnologiestohelpreduceemissionsVesselorderbook(2023)ProjectedLNGbunkeringto2028PathwaystoCO2ereduction(Grosstonnage)(‘000tonnes)Lower-emissionfuels12.00010.0008.0006.0004.0002.0000LNGBioLNGLSGConventionalHydrogen&derivativesLNGNetZeroOtherEfficienttechFuturetech202320242025202620272028Lowmethaneslipengines–OnboardCCS–airlubrication–

hullcoatings–

digitalisation–

shaftpowergeneration–

methaneslipco-feedingH2537469LNG-fuelledvesselsonorderLNG-fuelledvesselsinoperationBulkersCruisePCC,Ro-Ro,FerriesContainershipsTankersOthersengines–

fuelcellformainenginemitigation/eliminationCombinedwithnewtechnologiesSource:ShellinterpretationofClarksonsResearch,DNVHydrogen&derivatives:methanol,ammonia,hydrogen,biofuel.Other:Ethane,LPG,nuclear.PCC:purecarcarriers.Ro-Ro:roll-on/roll-off.Others:dredgers,ferries,multi-purpose,LPG,tugs.LSG:liquefiedsyntheticgas.Energyefficienttechnologiesincludeairlubrication,shaftpowergeneration,digitaltechnologies,windtechnologiesandimprovedhullcoatings.FutureTechnologiesincludeonboardcarboncaptureandstorage,co-feedinghydrogencombinedwithdual-fuelLNGengines,fuelcellformainengine.ShellplcFebruary202412LNGdecarbonisationpathwaysneedtobeexploredtogetherToaddressemissionstodayandprogresszeroemissionoptions100%CarbonCarboncreditscanbeusedtocompensatedcompensateforCOeLNGemissionslifecycleemissionso2fcompensatedLNGcargoes100%BioLNGFeedstockDependinguponAnaerobicLiquefactionBioLNGdigesterpercentageofbioemissionsblendingManureFoodandamenitywasteAgriculturalwastereducedandslurryBiogasBiogasupgradedtobiomethane~10%Forexample,usingTechnologiesrenewableelectricityinandefficienciesliquefactionprocessesemissionscanhelpreducereducedemissionsby8%90-95%fromrenewableLiquefiedStoredandexportedasliquefiedsyntheticgasH2OCO2WhenproducedCOfromSurpluselectricityfromrenewableenergy2syntheticgasDirectAirCa2pture,BioCO2circularCOand,emissionselectricity&using(LSG)intheinterim,bio-CO2pointsourceindustrialCO2CH4reducedRenewableenergyElectrolysisMethanation~80%+CarboncaptureCOemissions2andstorageremovalwithCCSCOremovalinLNGliquefaction(CCS)2Source:ShellinterpretationofUKDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA)GHGconversationfactors2022,JECWell-to-Tankreportv5,WoodMackenzieannouncementShellplcFebruary202413Acommongoal:reducingmethaneemissionsto‘nearzero’Drivenbygovernment,institutionsDrivenbyindustryDrivenbycustomersandpolicy156countriesnowpartofGlobalMethanePledge,covering86%ofLNGimportingcountries*80%OverAgreementofEU,Japan,ofLNGflowscoveredbymorethanSouthKorea,USAandAustralia120companiesandtoharmonisedMRVFirstGIIGNL’sMRVandGHG70countriesNeutralalignedcargodeliveredinTaiwanhavejoinedOGMP2.0GroundbreakingmethaneLabtestsofnewshippingtechnologyregulationforoilandgas,showsmethanereducedtoincludingimportsofgasandLNGintotheEUlowlevels**ReductionCH4$255mlnmobilised52signatoriesIncreasingcustomerforWorldBankmethaneandflaringfundleddemandfortransparencytooilandgasdecarbonisationandthird-partyverificationSource:Oil&GasMethanePartnership(OGMP),publicannouncements,MethaneIntelligence(MiQ)announcements,*includingEU;**AnnouncementbyDaphneTechnologies(SlipPur)charterlaunchedatCOP28ShellplcFebruary202414Gaspricesmorestablein20232butvolatilitylingeredintightmarketDespitestructuraltightnesspricesmoderatedin2023JKMpricesfellbutremainedabovehistoricalnormsGlobalgastradechange(2019vs2023)AveragemonthlyJKMprices2023demandfactorsMildwintertemperaturesHighgas&LNGinventoriesinBCM$/MMBtu100604020500Europe&AsiaStrongnucleargenerationinFrance,Japan&SouthKorea-50-100-150ModestChineseeconomicrecovery0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecWeakEuropeandemand&energysavingsPipelineexports*LNGexports2016-2020range202120222023Source:ShellinterpretationofIntercontinentalExchange(ICE)andWoodMackenziedataJKM:JapanKoreaMarker*PipelineexportsexcludeNorthAmericapipelinetradeShellplcFebruary202416SupplysecurityconcernssparkedperiodsofvolatilityGlobaleventsimpactedmarketevenwithrecord-highinventoriesEuropeangasinventoriesDutchTTFtradedvolumevspriceEvent-driven%fullMWEUR/MWh123volatility1600.00080100%80%60%40%20%0%2Prolonged37060504030201001500.000400.000300.000200.000100.0000NorwegianmaintenanceAustralian23industrialactionconcernIsrael-HamasconflictJanFebMarAprMayJun2018-2022range2022JulAugSepOctNovDec2023MaxcapacityTradedvolumeFrontmonthpriceSource:ShellinterpretationofCommodityEssentialsandICEdataEuropeincludesUK,Germany,Belgium,France,Denmark,Netherlands,Spain,Italy,Austria,Slovakia,CzechRepublicandSwitzerlandTTF:TitleTransferFacilityShellplcFebruary202417USAbecamethelargestLNGexporterPanamaCanalconstraintsshiftedtradepatternsTopexportersin2023USexportstoAsiaMTMT10080604020043210USAUSAAustraliaAustraliaQatarQatarRussiaMalaysiaMalaysiaRussiaPanamaCanalSuezCanalOthers*Source:ShellinterpretationofKplerdata*Others:CapeofGoodHopeShellplcFebruary202418NewinfrastructurehelpsredistributeEuropeanLNGimportsChinaretooktopimporterspot,emergingAsiashowsgrowthpotentialChangeinLNGimports2023(YoY)TotalLNGtrade:404MTMT107,94,64,1502,92,01,71,31,10,80,70,70,60,40,40,4-0,5-0,6-0,6-0,7-1,1-1,7-2,8-5-3,5-4,3-6,0-10EuropeancountrywithexistingregasificationfacilityEuropeancountrywithnewregasificationfacilityOthersSource:ShellinterpretationofKplerdataShellplcFebruary202419Europeangasdemandfellin2023DemanddestructioncontinuedduetolowersuppliesandelevatedpricesChangeinEuropeangasbalanceGas-powerdemandinEuropeIndustrialgasdemandinEuropeBCMBCMBCM350340330320310300290010810866424200GasdemandChangeingasdemandChangeinstorage2018-2022range20232018-2022range2023Source:ShellinterpretationofCommodityEssentialsdataEuropeandemandincludesUK,Germany,Belgium,France,Denmark,Netherlands,Spain,Italy,Austria,Slovakia,CzechRepublicandSwitzerlandR&C:ResidentialandcommercialShellplcFebruary202420ChinagasdemandoutpacedmoderateeconomicgrowthRobustdomesticsupply,pipedimportsandtermLNGlimitedspotbuyingChangeinChinagasbalanceChinatermvsspotLNGimportsBCMMT10080604020040038036034008%gasdemandgrowth20192020202120222023GasdemandChangeingasdemandTermImpliedspotTotalLNGimportsSource:ShellinterpretationofNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaandWoodMackenziedataShellplcFebruary202421JapangasdemanddeclinesasmorenuclearplantsrestartHeatwavesdroveupimportsbrieflyNuclearavailabilityvsLNGimportsGas-firedpowerdemandvsLNGimportsTWhMTMTFukushimaaccident1201008060402001008060402006Heatwaves543PeakLNGdemand21Inventoryreplenishment0-1-22011201320152017201920212023janfebmrtaprmeijunjulaugsepoktnovdecNucleargenerationLNGimportsYoYchangeinLNGimportsPower2022Power2023Source:ShellinterpretationofJapanMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(METI),WoodMackenzie,EnergyAspectsdataShellplcFebruary202422USsupplyandAsiandemandtoleadgrowthin2024ImportinfrastructurereadytomeetpotentialdemandupsidesForecastLNGsupplygrowth2024ForecastLNGdemandgrowth2024GlobalregascapacitygrowthMTPAMTPAMTPA120252580400151557-20Mt7-20MtTotalTotal5-520202021202220232024-5Consultantforecastrange*HighLow-15-15AmericasAfricaRussiaAsiaMiddleEastTotalAsiaexcl.ChinaChinaEuropeRestofworldTotalAsiaexcl.ChinaChinaEuropeRestofworldSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGEdataAllforecastsarenormalisedtodeliveredvolumes*Consultantforecastrangerepresentsthedistributionofyear-over-yearsupplyanddemandgrowthforecastsfromWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGEShellplcFebruary2024233RisingglobaldemandforLNGexpectedtokeeppacewithnewsupplySignificantLNGsupplycomingbutstart-uptimingsuncertainHistoricalglobalLNGsupplygrowthGlobalLNGsupplygrowthforecastrangeMTPAMTPA604020060Consultantforecastrange*HighLow402002018201920202021202220232024202520262027Source:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGEdata*Consultantforecastrangerepresentsthedistributionofyear-over-yearsupplygrowthforecastsfromWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGE.ShellplcFebruary202425LNGindustryhasmanagedlargeexpansionsbeforeDiversedemandsectorspoisedtoconsumenewLNGsupplyThree-yearhistoricalandforecastglobalLNGsupplyincreasesLatentdemandforLNGMTPA–

%increase2009-20112017-20192025-2027*80604020035%30%25%20%15%10%5%80604020035%30%25%20%15%10%5%80604020035%30%25%20%15%10%5%Newmarkets

0%0%0%PriceFuelShippingdemandsensitiveswitchingQatarmega-trainbuildoutAustralia&USAfirstwaveQatar&USAsecondwavebuyersSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,IEA,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGEdata*2025-2027representsthestraightaverageofconsultantforecastgrowthfrom2025to2027.ShellplcFebruary202426NewLNGliquefactioninvestmentunderpinnedbydemandgrowthinChina,SouthAsiaandSoutheastAsiaGlobalLNGsupplyvsdemandGlobalLNGsupplyvsdemandGlobalLNGdemandforecastrangescenariosMTPAMTPAMTPA800600400200080060040020008006004002000202020252030203520402020202520302035204020202025203020352040LNGsupplyinoperationSecurity-drivenChinaEmerginggrowthMarineLNGsupplyunderconstructionDemandforecastrangeWM-NZEIEA-APSIEA-NZELNGsupplyinoperationLNGsupplyunderconstructionDemandforecastrangeSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,Poten&Partners,IEA,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsandFGEdataWM-NZE:WoodMackenzieNetZeroScenario.IEA-APS:IEAAcceleratedPledgesScenario.IEA-NZE:IEANetZeroEmissionsScenarioSecurity-driven:Japan,SouthKoreaandEurope.Emerginggrowth:SouthAsia,South-eastAsiaandotherdemandShellplcFebruary202427EuropewillstillneedLNGdespitedeclininggasdemandIncreasedtermcontractingin2022–2023isnotenoughEuropeLNGSPAsEuropegasbalanceMTPABCM252015105600500400300200100~70MTPAe~50MTPAe00202120222023202020252030DomesticgasproductionRussianpipelineimportsOtherpipelineimportsImpliedspotLNGFirmLNGsupplyFlexibleLNGsupplyFirmLNGsupplyFlexibleLNGsupplyGasdemand-NetZeroScenarioSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenziedataLNGcontractsincludeLNGSPAsandsecondarycontracts.EuropecomprisesEU,UK,Norway,TurkeyandUkraine.FlexibleLNGsupply:supplythatcanbediverted.FirmLNGsupply:supplycontractedfordeliverytothebuyer.Gasdemand–NetZeroScenarioisWoodMackenzie’snet-zeroforecast,whichrepresentstheEuropeanCommission’sFitfor55decarbonisationpolicy.ShellplcFebruary202428China’sgasinfrastructuredevelopmentacceleratesGrowthinscaleandconnectivityenablesChinatobalancetheLNGmarketChinagas-powercapacitygrowthChinaregascapacitygrowthChinastoragecapacitygrowthGWMTPABCMTotalIndiaTotalUKTotalJapanLNGstoragecapacity20233530252015105605040302010012108regascapacitygaspower2023capacity202364200202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025202020212022202320242025UndergroundgasstorageLNGtankstorageSource:ShellinterpretationofWoodMackenzie,UKDepartmentforEnergySecurityandNetZeroandGastankdataCapacitygrowthconsidersprojectsthatareoperationalandunderconstruction.ShellplcFebrua