硅谷銀行-2024年美國(guó)葡萄酒行業(yè)狀況報(bào)告（英）-2024.1

Written

by

Rob

McMillanEVP&

FounderSilicon

Valley

Bank

Wine

DivisionForward3Introduction:

AdaptationScorecard

andPredictionsDemand

andConsumptionPremium

Wineries5612213035445157Bottle

PricingSalesChannels

andVarietalsAlcohol,

Demographics

andHealthGrapes,

BulkWineandHarvestAnalyticsSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY2Everyyear,Ireceive

constructivefeedbackfromengaged

readers.

Sometimes,theywriteverykindandappreciativenotes,

while

othersarecritical

ofthe

conclusions.Rob

McMillanThey

mayaskforclarificationonapointorpermissiontousethe

content,but

oftenthey

would

like

morecoverageofsimilarly-sizedorsimilarly-located

wineries,

oradeeperdive

intoaparticular

topic.

It's

allappreciated.

I'mgladtheindustry

engages.EVP

&Founder,SVBWine

Divisionrmcmillan@Duringthe

last

fewyears,westarted

receivingcommentsthat

thereport

had

becometoolong

andwaschallengingtoread.The2023report

was102pageslong,whichistoolong

evenforme!Rob

McMillan

isone

ofthe

topwine-businessanalysts

intheUnitedStatesandthe

authorofSilicon

Valley

Bank’s

highlyregarded

annual

Stateofthe

WineIndustry

Report,described

by

TheNewYork

Timesas“probably

themost

influentialanalysis

ofits

kind.”To

addressthis

feedback,wehavechanged

theformatof

thisyear's

State

of

theWineIndustryReport.Insubsequent

editions,the

report

willcontinue

tofocusonindustryissuesastheyevolve

whileprovidingthe

same

data,charts

and

analysis.However,

wewilldosomoresuccinctly.

Thestyle

presentedinthisreport

maydiffer

from

the

futurestate,

aswewillconsiderreaders'

commentsand

adjust

theformat

accordingly

until

wefindtheright

balance.WithRob’s

decadesofexperienceresearchingtheindustry

and

workingwithwineryclients,hisviews

aresought

afterandtrustedbywineryowners,

journalists,entrepreneursandinvestors.Aswe

publish

thereport

forthe

23rd

year,welook

forward

tohearingyour

thoughts

onthenewformat,pro

orcon.Heisaprominentspeaker,domestically

andinternationally,

andyou

willfind

himextensivelyquoted

inthenational,

regional

andtrade

press.RobMcMillanrmcmillan@SILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY3It

isnotthestrongest

ofthespecies

that

survives,notthemost

intelligentthat

survives.It

istheonethat

isthemost

adaptable

to

change.CHARLESDARWINSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY4Themaxim

that

longevity

isabout

the“survival

ofthe

fittest"isoftenused

todescribeanindividualorgroup'ssuccessmoving

through

difficultcircumstances,

be

it

challenges

toaherd

ofwildebeests

amid

aprotracteddroughtorabusiness

testedbychangingmarketdynamics.The

latteriswhatwefacetodayasanindustry.

How

willwerespond?Howdowe

solvethese

challenges?Should

we

go

italone,

collaborate,or

try

somethingelse?JeremyRifkinsaidinhisbook

TheEmpathic

Civilizationthat:“Darwin

cametobelieve

that

survival

ofthe

fittest

isasmuchaboutcooperation,

symbiosisand

reciprocity

asit

isaboutindividualcompetitionand

that

themost

fitarejustaslikely

toenterincooperativebonds

withtheirfellows.”Most

people

believe

Darwin

saidevolution

andnaturalselectionwereprocesses

influencedbythe

survivalofthefittest.That's

nottrue.Darwin

saidspeciesthat

survive

externalpressureare'those

most

adaptable

tochange.'That

isahintatwhat

we

needtodo.Waiting

for

afictive

cohort

to

age

sufficiently

to

discoverwineor

believingthatour

strategies

"havealwaysworkedbefore"

istoxicto

adaptationwhenthe

context

drivingdemand

changes.

Thatissomething

the

weakestbusinesses

willdo.

Theirlackofadaptation

willcauseapredictableoutcome.Competition

withinagroup

orspeciesisanetzero-sum

game.

Iwin.Youlose.

Successful

adaption

ismorelikelytooccur

when

thechallengedgroupworkstogethertofindsolutions.Thequestion

is:

Will

we?Thesolution

toour

industry’s

changingbusiness

circumstances

istochangethefactorslimiting

marketopportunitycollaboratively

or,ifwemust,goitalone.

Then,itwillbe

arace

toadaptbybeing

moreefficient,betterattargetingprospects,

retainingmoreexisting

members,and

positioning

productsbetterthan

your

neighbor.SILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY5????Absent

anexternalevent,

theeconomy

will

unlikelyenter

arecession

in2024.Tasting

roomvisitation

that

waslowerover

thepast

two

summers

will

grow

in2024.Slowerin2023through

October,

DTC

saleswill

grow

againmodestlyin2024.Total

winecategorysaleswill

end

in2023withnegative

volume

growth

between

minus4%andminus

2%.Volume

growthwillremainnegative

in2024.Valuesales

willhovernear0%

growth,plusorminus1.5%in2023,andremaininthat

rangein2024.?Premium

winerieswillend

2023withslightly

negative

volume

sales.Valuesalesgrowthbetween

1%to

4%isexpected,

strengthened

byagoodQ423.Total

premiumwinesalesby

valuewill

improve

in

2024.?

Premium

wineries

currently

havebalanced

inventory

positions

and

will

successfullytakesmall

bottle

price

increasesin2024.High-production

winerieswillfind

priceincreases

more

difficult.?

Theindustryispresently

builtto

overproduce.

Total

wine

consumption

isdecreasing

byvolume.

Retail

inventoriesarebackingupintowholesale.Wholesale

inventoriesarebulging,andwineriesarebeingmorecautiousabout

carryinginventoryinareduced-demandenvironment.Without

improvingdemand,

retailerscan

only

rebalanceinventoriesbybuyinglessfromwholesale

while

selling

throughtheirexisting

inventory.?

Theplanted

acreageinCA

andWA

is

exceeding

currentdemand.Oregon’s

plantedacreageisinbalancewithdemand.

When

willwe

see

amarketcorrection

forgrapesand

bulkwineingrapesintended

forlower-priced

wine?It’s

likelygoing

tohappen

in2024.?

Bottleprices

are

showingsomeresilienceasofthis

writinginlate2023,but

withdemandfragileandtoomuchsupply

at

retailandwholesale,

it

wouldn’t

take

muchforthe

industrytoincreasetheuse

offlash

salessitesand

increasediscountsandpromotions

in2024.SILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY6CategoryPredictionPredicted

TrendCommentPredictions

wegot

rightThe$3TofCOVID

savings

onthesidelinewould

support

retail

spendingthroughout

2023,and

we

would

nothavearecession.GDPNoRecession

in2023n/aThosemaking

lower-pricewinewill

havedifficultypassing

through

thecost

of

inflation,but

therewill

beless

resistance

topassing

on

somesmallpriceincreases

inhigher-pricedwine.Bottle

Pricingn/aTheprediction

was

spot

on.Grape

pricesingeneral

didn'tmovemuch,

so

I'dcall

thispredictionlargely

accurate.GrapePricesGrape

priceswould

bestable

in2023Boomerscontinueas

thegrowth

cohortStabletrendDemographicsUpfor

theboomersegmentConsumers

over

60are

still

taking

share

fromyounger

consumers.Predictions

thatwerepartiallyrightThesales-value

growth

for

2023was

estimated

tofall

between1%and4%.

Thetrend,atleast,

was

correct.Thefinal

growth

rate

dependson

Q42023,but

theoddsofendinginthe

range

Ipredictedare

low.Premium

WineSalesGrowth

Rate4%-6%Declinefromprior

growthDirectionally,we

got

thenegativevolumegrowth

call

right

for

the2023year-end.We

expected

thegrowth

rate

toworsen,

but

theearlyreadsuggests

thenegativevolumegrowth

rate

from2022didn’tworsen.Full

WineCategoryVolume

GrowthNegativeVolume

GrowthLower

volumeagainPredictions

that

wegot

wrongFull

WineCategoryValue

GrowthThisisaclosecall.Mostanalysts

expect

negativevalue

growth

for

thetotal

category,

but

some

suggest

marginal

positivegrowth

in2023.SlightlyPositiveValue

Growth3.7MtonsLowerTheharvestendedup

at3.4Mtons,

and

was

lowerthantheprioryear.Closeinnominal

terms,

but

that's

amiss.CAHarvest

SizeLarger

thantheprioryearPremiumWineriesPremium

winerieshad

mixed

success

duringthe

pastyear.Thevalue

ofpremiumwineisstill

growing,

but

volume

saleswillfinishlowerforthe2023calendaryear,partlyduetothe

light2020vintage

sold

in2023.Those

samewineriescomeinto2024withone

ofthebestqualityharvestsinyearsandwithbalancedinventorypositions,givingthe

segmentalevel

offlexibilityshould

theeconomicconditionsinthe

US

soften.Thesectorsuccessfullyraisedbottle

pricesin2023topartiallycoverthehighercostsfrominflation,

pushed

salesbyvalue

up,

and

producedrespectableprofitability,

according

toinformationfromthe

SVBPeerGroupDataBase

ofpremiumwineryfinancial

statements.Moderateheadwinds

discussedwithinthisreport

contributedtothemixedoutcome.Direct-to-consumer

salesbyvolume

werelowerin2023,andtasting

roomvisitation

droppedforthesecondyearinarow.Good

2023holiday

salesshould

improve

bothoutlooks

oncethose

aretabulated.Grape

buyersin

California

in

most

pricesegments

can

bepatientwhencontracting

forfruit

in

2024.Typically,

afourthyearoflighter-than-expectedyields

would

drivegrapepricinghigher,

but

thelackofsignificantmovement

inpriceisjustanotherindication

ofsoftdemand.

Thatsaid,theSVBAnnualStateofthe

IndustrySurveyrespondentsexpectsome

grapepriceincreases

in2024

inmost

priceranges.

(Page34)SILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY8High-Production

WineriesRetailwineinventoriesarefullystockedinthewholesale

channel.Looking

back,

atthe

endof2019,theindustry

had

anacute

oversupply.

That

wascorrected

byCOVID

pantry-loadingandwildfiresin2020.But

immediately

thereafter,

inventoriesstarted

tocreep

higheragainfromretailintowholesale.Thewholesale

inventory-to-salesratioincreasedbeginninginJuly

of2021(slide43),reachingahighpointof1.71xsalesinMay2023.Thatmetrichasreturned

slightly

to1.61xthroughlate

2023,withwholesale

inventoriesmoving

lower

against

flat

saleslevels.Theidealinventory-to-sales

ratio

throughallsaleschannels

shouldbe1.0xin

aflatvolumegrowth

scenario,but

even

lower

in

thecurrentnegativegrowth

environment

weinhabittoday.

Therearestructurally

moreplantedvineyard

acresthan

are

requiredtosatisfy

consumerdemand.Imagine

you

areonthe

salesteamofawinery,withthe

headofyour

departmentstandingatthefrontoftheconference

roomasking,"What

should

our

growthgoalbethisyear?"It'stough

forasalespersontoanswer,

"I

thinkweshould

sellthe

samevolume

aslast

year!"Multiplying

that

scenario

acrosshundredsofproducers

creates

thepotential

tooverestimatesalesgrowth,leading

toexcess

inventory,

discounting,andpricereductions.

Thisimbalancewillproduceahigher-than-neededinventorysupply.

Theoversupply

at

wholesale

willlikelylinger

through2024.Absent

improvingdemand,

some

vineyardsmust

beremovedinmany

traditionalwine-producingcountriesand

regions,

includingtheUnitedStates.SILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY9MacroFactorsThebusiness

istransitioningtoalower-demandenvironment

forreasonsdiscussedextensively

inthis

report

over

the

pastseven

years,and

repeatedinpart

throughoutthisreport.FewerUS

consumersseewineastheirpreferred

alcoholicbeverage;instead

–theydrinkacrosscategories.

Thesalesofwinesproducedbelow$12have

beendroppingforyears.Consumers

todaydrink

less

alcohol,choosesubstitutesincludingRTDs,

spirits,

and

Cannabisinstead

ofwine,and

therearemoreabstainers

todayinthepopulation.

Asasignpost

ofshiftingindustry

dynamics,2023willmarkthe

firsttimein45

yearsthat

thevolume

ofspirits

soldwillsurpassthevolume

ofwinesold,

according

toShankenNewsDaily.Inone

exampleofchanging

demand,datafrom

the

National

InstituteofHealth

reported

thatbetween

2012and2022,

for

thoseaged19

–30,

monthlycannabis

use

increased

from16.6%to28.8%

ofthecohort,

whilealcohol

use

declined

from

68.4%

to67.5%.It's

telling

that

inaseparateGallupstudy,

40%ofadultssaidcannabis

wasn'tharmful,while

only16%cited

alcoholasnotbeing

harmful.Theanti-alcohollobby

led

bytheWorldHealth

Organizationishaving

success

withitsmessage

–truthfulor

not,that

'thereisnosafe

amount

ofalcoholtodrink.'SILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY10Atthe

most

basiclevel,the

potentialvolume

growthinwinesalesisthe

product

ofpercapita

andpopulation

growth.Acrossthewine-consumingworld,

percapita

consumption

isdecreasing,

andpopulation

growthisslowing.Because

thebusiness

contexthaschanged,some

winningstrategiescommoninthe

operatingenvironment

duringthepast

thirtyyearswillincreasinglyprovefallible.

Predictions

vary,

but

we

would

placethe

final2023

dollar-basedsalesgrowthforthewine

category

at

zero

percentwith

arange

ofnegative

3%

growthtopositive

1%growth.Fishing

from

aShrinking

PondTherearetwo

solutions

todecliningwinedemand.We

eitherworktogethertocreate

aresonantmessage

that

positively

influencesconsumption,orweuse

whatevermeanswehave

toincreaseefficiency

inproduction,grapegrowing,andmarketing.Threeanalysts

and

Iworkedformorethantwo

years

toput

togetheracooperativeindustrymarketingorganization,announcing

the

formationof

WineRAMP

inJanuary

2021.But

despitesolid

alignment

fromasteeringcommitteemade

ofsome

ofthe

industry's

brightest

mindsthroughout

the

formation

stage,the

willtosupportthe

concept

evaporatedoncemadepublic.Therearenocollaborativesolutions

inprocessofwhich

I’m

aware.

Whetherwecooperateornot,thegoalforeverywineryshould

betoimproveefficienciesandtake

marketsharebackfromspirits,

sports

drinks,

cannabis,andbeerproducers.

Agrowinglistofadvancedanalytic

tools

thatcanimprovedecision-makingandgenerateefficiency

isavailable

andcanhelpinthat

effort.Successiswithinreach

foreveryone

willingto

adapt.SILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY11The

data

we

see

for

US

wine

consumers

repeatsitself

across

many

other

wine-consuming

countries.Total

world

consumption

hinted

ata

downwardslope

in

2014

before

becoming

obvious

in

2017.Except

for

a

slight

reprieve

in

2020

during

COVID,that

downtrend

has

continued,

and

vine

acres

arebeing

pulled

in

many

countries.2552502452402352302252202152107.87.77.67.57.47.37.27.17The

world’s

wine-producing

countries

had

highhopes

that

the

growth

of

Chinese

consumptionmight

help

business,

buta

crack-down

on

displaysof

wealth

in

the

early

2010s

begana

decade-longdecline

that

continues

today.

Maybe

India

willbecome

the

next

hope?Top

10WineConsuming

CountriesRankedbyMillions

of

9LCasesVol.Chg.2015-2023RankMarket2015202020212022123456789United

StatesFrance324.0303.3237.8217.8344.5257.8268.9220.0146.7114.4102.2137.8104.448.9340.0276.7268.9221.1145.6116.7114.4116.793.3329.1281.1255.6215.6142.2120.0114.497.85.1-22.217.8-2.2ItalyGermanyUnited

Kingdom

142.20.0RussiaSpain107.8108.9201.1114.453.312.25.5China-103.3-22.213.4Argentina92.2Years10

Portugal58.966.7Source:

Shanken

Impact

Data

Bank,

2023ConsumptionVineAreaConsumptionTrendVineAreaTrendSource:

International

Organization

of

Vineand

WineSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY13FranceItalyUnitedStatesGermanyUnitedKingdomAustraliaThe

lower

per

capita

consumption

trend

in

wine-consuming

countries

is

morea

story

of

theevolution

of

old-world

versus

new-world

drinkingpatterns.20.018.016.014.012.010.08.0Starting

from

a

higher

base

with

an

average

percapita

consumption

above

10

liters,

the

countriesof

France,

Germany,

and

Italy

reduced

alcoholconsumption

between

1960

and

2014

by

41%.

Thenew-world

countries

of

Australia,

New

Zealand,the

United

States,

and

Canada

increased

averageper

capita

consumption

by

16%,

starting

from

alower

average

per

capita

consumption

of

6

litersper

adult

compared

to

their

EuropeanGermanycounterparts.FranceToday,

the

countries

growing

in

consumption

arenot

making

up

for

the

decline

in

the

rest

of

theworld.

The

challenges

faced

in

the

US

are

mirroredin

other

traditional

wine-producing

countries.UnitedKingdomAustralia6.0UnitedStatesItaly4.02.00.0196019701980199020002014YearsNote:Presentedintotal

percapita,

versusadult

percapitaSource:

OurWorldinDSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY14A

forecast

of

growth

in

the

adult

drinkingpopulation,

multiplied

by

per

capita

consumption,should

bea

rough

estimate

of

the

expected

marketgrowth

opportunity

tomorrow.USAFranceItaly16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%GermanyChinaUnitedKingdomRussiaSpainWith

declines

in

birth

rates

and

per

capitaconsumption

in

the

largest

consuming

nations,

theopportunity

to

expand

wine

sales

in

the

nexttwenty

years

will

be

in

regions

and

countriesdifferent

from

those

you

target

today.ArgentinaAustraliaWhich

countries

have

the

highest

forecastedpopulation

growth

in

the

next

ten

years?

Half

ofthe

world's

population

growth

is

expected

to

beconcentrated

in

just

nine

countries

by

2050:

India,Nigeria,

the

Democratic

Republic

of

the

Congo,Pakistan,

Ethiopia,

the

United

Republic

ofTanzania,

the

United

States

of

America,

Uganda,and

Indonesia.

If

what

you

are

doing

isn’t

working,try

something

different!6.0%If

you

export,

most

would

agree

that

most

of

thesecountries

aren’t

on

your

target

list.

Tomorrow,

youmay

wish

that

you

had

done

your

market

researchin

areas

that

seem

outlandish

today,

as

buildingbrands

in

new

countries

takes

years.4.0%2.0%0.0%Source:

OurWorldinDSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY15According

to

Shanken,

2023

will

mark

the

third

yearof

negative

volume

growth

for

the

wine

category

andthe

first

time

in

45

years

that

the

spirits

market

willsurpass

the

wine

market

in

total

volume

sales.

Inthe

US,

full-category

sales

growth

is

declining

andis

forecasted

to

decline

further

by

volume,according

to

almost

every

data

source.Managing

such

diverse

legal

drinking

age

cohorts

allat

once

is

a

challenge.

Wineries

are

ina

quandarybecause

they

can’t

ignore

their

best

olderconsumers,

yet

they

must

simultaneously

changepositioning

for

younger

consumers.There

are

only

two

operative

solutions.

One

is

tocollaborate

on

marketing

the

category

to

expand

thenumber

of

consumers

and

wine

occasions.

Thesecond

is

to

be

more

effective

and

efficient

asindividual

wineries

since

we

will

all

fish

for

thesame

consumers

in

the

same

pond.The

industry

understands

the

headwinds

now.

Asignificant

portion

of

consumers

under

sixty

havetried

wine

and

made

their

decision

to

consumealcohol

across

categories.

The

youngerdemographics

consume

wine

differently,

ondissimilar

occasions

compared

to

the

past,

or,

insome

instances,

abstain

from

alcohol

altogether.Change

is

an

investment

in

time

and

money.

Thereis

opportunity,

and

success

will

favor

those

whoadapt.Source:

Shanken’s

Impact

Databank

Reviewand

Forecast2023,

SVBestimateSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY162013

–

Whatforceiscausing

thischange

indemand?In

1982,

Congress

encouraged

states

to

enactstronger

impaired-driving

laws.

By

the

mid-1980s,some

of

the

neo-prohibitionist

organizationseffectively

characterized

wine

and

other

alcoholicbeverages

asa

gateway

drug,

linking

alcohol

tounrelated

drug

addictions.9008007006005004003002002008

–the

FinancialCrisis

didn’tslow

demandThe

growing

clamor

culminated

with

the

Anti-DrugAbuse

Act

of

1988,

which

included

the

addition

ofgovernment

health

warnings

on

wine

bottles

for

thefirst

time.

The

impact

of

those

anti-alcohol

effortsled

to

the

last

decline

in

wine

consumption

startingin

1985.1985

–

HealthConcernsIn

1991,

CBS

reported

on

the

French

Paradox,adding

to

the

weight

of

positive

health

messagingderived

from

the

Mediterranean

Diet's

popularityand

Arthur

Klatsky's

work

showing

the

healthbenefits

of

moderate

alcohol

consumption.By

1994,

wine

consumption

flipped

positive,coinciding

with

baby

boomers

starting

their

mostrobust

retail

consuming

years.

Beginning

in

2013however,

the

growth

rate

in

consumption

slowed,and

today,

growth

has

turned

negative

in

manymarkets

and

product

categories.1994

–

WineDemand

Explodes1991

–

The

FrenchParadox

broadcastRecapturing

the

message

that

wine

is

the

betterchoice

if

you

choose

to

drink

is

one

way

to

improveconsumer

demand.Source:

TheCalifornia

Wine

InstituteSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY17When

wine

demand

under

$12

turned

negative

andpulled

the

whole

category

down,

the

premium

winebusiness

was

the

bright

spot

for

the

total

winecategory.

Wine

sales

above

$12

continued

apositive

growth

trend

through

2022

and

should

end2023

with

positive

value

growth.28.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%24.0%25.5%22.3%21.2%2021

was

an

outsized

growth

year

for

sales

in

thepremium

wine

business.

You

still

couldn’t

do

manythings

for

fun

in

2021,

but

you

could

go

to

a

wineryand

sit

outside

for

tastings.

With

18.6%

growth

offadifficult

2020,

2021

sales

growth

was

the

best

inadecade.

Tasting

rooms

and

club

sales

werehumming

as

we

emerged

from

restricted

businessconditions.19.8%18.6%18.4%17.6%12.2%11.9%9.2%9.6%Repeating

the

success

of

2021

was

unlikely,

andpredictably,

2022

delivered

only

modest

salesgrowth

of

6.2%.

We

had

hoped

to

see

more

peoplein

the

tasting

rooms

with

business

open.

Instead,consumers

got

on

planes

and

caught

up

withmissed

activities.

2023

ends

witha

second

softsummer

in

tasting

room

visitation,

creating

lowersales

growth

through

September.7.7%5.3%5.6%6.2%8.8%2.8%5.2%3.1%0.0%-0.6%I

expect

an

excellent

Q4

will

turn

sales

around,

andwe’ll

report

positive

2023

year-end

earnings

for

thepremium

wine

segment.-5.0%-10.0%-3.8%-4.8%The

good

news

is

that

we

will

again

see

premiumwine

with

positive

value

growth

in

2023;

however,there

will

be

negative

volume

growth

in

increasingpremium

price

bands.YearsSource:

SVBPeerGroup

Analysis

DatabaseSILICON

VALLEY

BANK

2024

STATE

OF

THE

WINE

INDUSTRY18In

1992,

I

penned

the

original

business

plan

for

theSVB

Wine

Division

in

which

I

said,35.030.025.020.015.010.05.0“U.S.

table

wine

entered

a

seven-year

period

ofdeclining

volume

in

the

late

80s.

Industryobservers

attributed

the

decrease

to

changingconsumer

attitudes

concerning

alcoholconsumption,

health

concerns,

drunk

drivingissues

and

overall

changing

tastes

asValueContractingPremiumExpandingconsumers

drank

less

but

better

wine.”Doesn’t

that

sound

eerily

familiar

30

years

later?In

the

middle

of

2016,

wine

below

$9

began

to

showvalue

weakness.

And

in

late

2017,

those

winesbegan

to

show

persistent

volume

declines

off-premise.Wines

above

$12

have

been

performing

well

but

atadeclin