石化行業(yè)2024年市場前景及投資研究報告：與不確定性共存

234:

JKemp

Energy,CFTC2018GAMMA5:bloombergOPEC:bloomberg11

10910119WTI711

16WTI

BRENTcontangoOPEC340/(KRG)OPECOPEC11

267:

wind

OPEC

Kpler11

1711

18OPEC11

26OPECAverageProjections2023OPEC2000–20192020202120222024FISCAL

BREAKEVENOIL

PRICE1OilexportersAlgeria102.151.983.285.675.8...89.666.3111.457.9134.8259.453.3183.562.452.076.746.583.632.353.185.763.6133.6278.366.395.563.285.162.144.785.837.355.1112.477.0126.2351.775.899.870.764.472.244.880.938.155.6111.978.2129.1375.476.483.966.362.266.441.575.140.054.8100/+AzerbaijanBahrain11

26113.7546.556.6Iran100/IraqKazakhstanKuwait2192.176.246.871.769.145.180.4...Libya141.786.4OmanQatar49.3Saudi

ArabiaTurkmenistanUnited

Arab

Emirates76.340.511

26

OPEC2024

H149.951.7Oil

exportersAlgeria85.257.452.540.465.386.737.854.371.350.655.4...80.264.884.636.753.780.537.158.075.643.550.825.918.579.469.534.644.556.1123.933.057.275.743.457.121.716.875.285.939.448.875.765.843.486.085.146.352.731.436.874.260.440.547.267.4102.445.161.564.140.254.730.739.483.563.145.744.176.596.246.255.562.242.757.031.835.3AzerbaijanBahrainIranOPECIraq2024KazakhstanKuwaitLibyaOmanQatarSaudiArabiaTurkmenistanUnited

Arab

EmiratesOPEC45.78:IMF9wind

bloomberg2022

EIA202310:bloomberg

GasBuddyIEA1012IEA121-11811IEA

EIA2001Q3-2001Q49112002Q1-2008Q240%20082009Q2-2009Q42010Q1-2011Q21402008/700%2008Q3-2009Q1

20072011Q3-2014Q22014Q2-2016Q120142016Q2-2018Q3

OPEC2018Q4-2019Q42020Q1-2021Q4Q3

Q42022Q1Q1

Q2OPEC+2021美國CPI下降時間段1983-04～1983-071986-01～1986-121990-11～1992-011996-12～1998-022001-05～2002-012003-03～2004-022006-06～2006-102008-07～2009-072010-01～2010-062011-09～2014-022014-06～2015-012020-01～2020-052022-06～2022-10美國CPI下降時長3個月WTI油價走勢小幅上升先下降后上升下降WTI實際價格29.85～3219.66～10.4～1830.9～18.9WTI累計漲跌幅2.2%11個月14個月14個月8個月11個月4個月12個月5個月29個月7個月-1.7%-12.0%-10.4%-8.9%下降下降小幅上升下降25.92～15.528.37～19.4831.04～36.1671.03～59.50134.02～64.5974.48～84.84～75.675.1%-11.5%-69.4%1.2%下降先上升后回落先漲后跌，高位震蕩

85.54～106.3～100.7915.3%下降下降下降105.15～47.3457.55～29.66111.79～86.25-57.8%-27.9%-25.5%4個月4個月13:宏觀如果是穩(wěn)定變量需求穩(wěn)定增長往10年平均增速)(過尋找催化劑使需求增長加速A品種當年供需改善，利潤上升供應(明確)-跟蹤投尋找供應

需求的<產(chǎn)進度細分品種尋找行業(yè)龍頭，產(chǎn)能彈性大的品種考慮估值是否低估考慮行業(yè)競爭格局逆全球化全球宏觀-動化工品需求預期的波動態(tài)變量海外央行利率緊縮14:從歷史經(jīng)驗判斷PPI及CPI見底后順周期反彈總量思路制造業(yè)景氣周期的波動國內(nèi)外庫存周期共振帶來的補庫提振需求行業(yè)思路庫存周期行業(yè)周期行業(yè)利潤偏高或偏低均值回歸催化劑供給放緩或出清行業(yè)環(huán)境的變化導致利潤中樞上移或下移需求出現(xiàn)實質改善15:16Kpler

wind17bloomberg2023

H1-->Q418EIA/HFI/EIAHFI1,2402022/1,300100/40EIAEIA8100/2022EIAEIA2022EIAEIA

wind2022OPECOPEC2024

7IEA2023

72024100/0EIA

IEA2021LNG2025-202621IEA22IEALNGIEA24OPECOPEC長期看美國產(chǎn)量增速下降，新井成本抬升()OPEC原油價格長期中樞將高于80美元/桶長期看中東市場份額增加，話語權增強沙特等OPEC國家長期需要高油價支撐財政平衡長期看歐美高利率政策不可持續(xù)，但利率中樞可能抬升長期看實物商品的戰(zhàn)略意義提升25EIA數(shù)據(jù)偏差的加大利益交換，換取產(chǎn)油國增產(chǎn)歐美消費國抑制通脹放松對委內(nèi)瑞拉及伊朗制裁希望將巴以控制在局部沖突，避免擴大化尚未看到明確制裁伊朗意愿避免制裁俄羅斯減少供應油價維持高位控制供應提高需求預測OPEC國家保持市場份額受制裁國家增產(chǎn)階段性可能引起內(nèi)部分歧26EIA+/-200/1/PhilipVerleger192-3%事件開始日期1973-101979-101979-011979-05持續(xù)時間(周)價格波幅(%)

斷供幅度%阿拉伯石油禁運伊朗石油中斷4231.615.164.530.717.828.458.443.5117.511.218.831.145.227.715.87.8-3.30.22沙特拒絕增產(chǎn)2-2.5-0.2-0.3-1.5-0.50.1沙特削減對油公司供給1美國駐伊朗大使館人質事件

1979-1114兩伊戰(zhàn)爭爆發(fā)1980-091990-081999-012002-112008-082007-012007-122伊拉克入侵科威特OPEC減產(chǎn)612委內(nèi)瑞拉石油工人卡特琳娜颶風2-5.1-1.2-1.10.74尼日利亞意外減產(chǎn)中國柴油需求爆發(fā)46歐盟強制推行10ppm低硫柴油

2008-036-1.3-0.71.3利比亞斷供2011-012014-072017-012017-092017-112018-053第二次利比亞斷供OPEC2017減產(chǎn)3持續(xù)中3-1.7-0.60.5哈維颶風12.712.7第一次委內(nèi)瑞拉斷供事件康菲委內(nèi)瑞拉索賠事件持續(xù)中持續(xù)中27-0.9PKVerleger

windWorld

oil

demand

and

supplybalance(a)

Total

world

demandTotalOECDTotalNon-OECDTotalNon-OPECproductionProcessinggains202091.1929.3131.6460.952.16202197.1329.7731.8561.612.2920221Q232Q233Q234Q2320231Q242Q243Q244Q24202499.62

101.74

101.26

102.06

103.18

102.06

103.76

103.43

104.74

105.28

104.3130.9732.4463.422.4032.0433.2165.252.4732.0932.8764.962.4732.6732.2664.932.4732.8731.7064.572.4732.4232.5064.922.4733.1032.6365.732.5232.9932.8065.792.5233.4133.0066.412.5233.8533.2467.092.5233.3432.9266.262.52Total

Non-OPEC

liquids

productionOPECNGL+63.1163.9065.8167.7267.4367.3967.0467.3968.2568.3168.9369.6168.78non-conventionaloils(b)

Total

non-OPEC

liquidsproduction

andOPECNGLsOPECcrude

oil

production(secondary

sources)Total

liquids

productionBalance

(stock

change

andmiscellaneous)5.175.2869.1826.355.3971.2128.865.4473.1628.855.4772.9128.285.4372.8227.445.4372.4627.445.4472.8328.005.4973.7427.445.5473.8527.445.5074.4327.445.5075.1127.445.5174.2827.4468.2725.7394.0095.53

100.07

102.01

101.18

100.2699.90

100.84

101.18

101.29

101.87

102.55

101.722.81-1.600.450.27-0.08-1.79-3.27-1.22-2.59-2.14-2.87-2.73-2.581Q232Q233Q234Q23102.52915.850.342.951.1101.4-1.120231Q24101.12916.250.343.952.2102.51.42Q243Q241044Q24103.529.516.251.443.952.1103.502024Total

Demand100.428.315.74944.652.9101.91.5101.728.415.749.743.852.1101.80.1102.628.615.850.342.750.9101.2-1.4101.828.615.749.843.551.8101.6-0.2102.629.116.251.143.952.2103.30.7102.829.216.251.143.952.1103.20.4Total

OECD

SupplyTotal

Non-OECD

SupplyTotal

Non-OPEC+

SupplyOPEC+

Crude29.216.351.643.852.1103.7-0.3Total

OPEC+

LiquidTotal

SupplyStock

Change28EIA

IEA29Rystad/2022/48/7%3640130030RystadEnergybloomberg2023202332IEAIEA20237%20235%20232019IEA2020-2023OPECIOC25%HESSIEA20222022IEA201920156IEA37??2020202320232232023GDP?2022202341072018

1117738??2022

11

212023ROEROE39wind

Bloomberg——2022201744.3-66.5PB0.85-1.1;201850.3-87.31.02-1.550.812X400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%EOG能源先鋒能源康菲石油大陸能源中國海油布倫特原油40wind80/(/)20231200~1300105040302010045.0242.0339.8234.6732.5430.3930.3929.782…26.344.052013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20222023Q3作業(yè)費用（美元/桶油當量）

折舊、折耗及攤銷（美元/桶油當量）2023650-66041wind?2022ROEEOG2022ROE類型代碼名稱凈資產(chǎn)收益率銷售凈利率資產(chǎn)周轉率權益乘數(shù)COP

US

EquityOXY

US

EquityDVN

US

EquityPXD

US

EquityEOG

US

Equity883

HK

Equity600938.SH康菲石油西方石油戴文能源先鋒能源EOG資源0.2970.2320.3570.2450.2480.2630.2630.2720.2100.2730.3150.3140.3660.3360.3360.3070.8180.4870.8460.6170.6460.4900.4900.6281.9142.4222.1091.6531.6701.5901.5901.850純油氣標的中國海油中國海油純油氣標的平均XOM

US

EquityCVX

US

EquityTTE

FPEquityBP/

LN

EquitySHEL

LN

EquityENI

IM

EquityEQNR

NO

Equity386

HK

Equity600028.SH-?？松梨谘┓瘕?.2650.1610.2550.2820.1870.1960.2660.0850.0850.1130.1900.1560.1540.0820.1050.1140.0990.2040.0230.0200.0460.1001.0900.9200.8340.8650.8990.8470.9131.7301.7301.2501.1081.7891.5952.4743.1962.1952.5542.6672.4602.4601.9702.336道達爾集團BP公司殼牌綜合性油公司埃尼挪威石油中國石油化工中國石化中國石油-601857.SH綜合性油公司平均42wind

BloombergPV-10?PV-10PVSECProved

PV-10PV-10SECPV-10DCF10%??PV-10PV-10PV-10PV-10PV-102022

PV-10300,000250,000200,000150,000100,00050,000050.0%

140,000120.0%100.0%80.0%60.0%40.0%20.0%0.0%40.0%30.0%120,00020.0%

100,00010.0%80,00060,00040,00020,00000.0%-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%-40.0%-50.0%-20.0%-40.0%-60.0%-80.0%2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022PV-10估值(百萬美元)

PV-10

YoY(右軸）2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022PV-10

PV-10

YoY(估值

百萬美元()右軸）43wind

Bloomberg2023?2023202275%70%2323%202315%2023

11

-202410%

225%20234-2023

1080%2240%-80%

233280%

120%2270%

80%

20231.68/0.168/??232023202280%2022LNG/3.1-3.6/?202336%20235191.6815%18%202310%氣（即受20%漲幅限制）非氣調(diào)峰量國內(nèi)天然氣銷售實現(xiàn)價格同比增速居民用氣均衡1均衡2（固定價格）80%（22年40%-80%）27%（22年25%）80%（22年70%-80%）42%均衡2（浮動價格）掛靠JKM現(xiàn)貨3%2021年6.5%2022年27.6%2023年預計10.0%2023年4月-2023年10月較門站價上浮比例資源配置占比2023年11月-2024年3月較門站價上浮比例資源配置占比15%（22年5%）15%70%（22年75%）數(shù)據(jù)：公司年報、證券

研究15%（22年5%）55%20%掛靠JKM現(xiàn)貨3%120%44wind2023LNGLNG202445IEA

westwood

global

energy2023202346IEA

westwood

global

energy-Refinery(%)Europe2022Q1

2022Q2

2022Q3

2022Q4E

2023Q1E

2023Q2E

2023Q3E

2023Q4E

2022E

2023E74%85%80%74%55%87%77%76%77%75%54%89%59%77%83%77%76%53%89%60%76%84%79%78%54%87%61%76%78%79%79%51%87%59%76%81%78%81%49%88%57%79%80%79%83%52%87%59%78%81%80%82%61%86%57%76%82%78%76%54%88%58%77%80%79%81%53%87%58%FsuEastAsiaMiddleEastAfricaNorthAmericaCentral&SouthAmerica

53%World

78%4777%78%78%78%78%79%79%78%78%Eni-

2500020000150001000050000歷史高位歷史低位當前價格平均值乙烯-石腦油丙烯-石腦油丁二烯-石腦油-5000100%歷史分位600090%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%歷史高位歷史低位當前價格平均值500040003000200010000汽油-原油柴油-原油煤油-原油-1000-2000-3000-4000PXPTA汽油柴油

航空煤油

乙烯丙烯丁二烯48wind

Kpler——??2023CPI700600500400300200100014012010080凈利（億元，右軸）迪拜原油（美元/桶，左軸）凈利潤(億元,左軸)迪拜原油(美元/桶，右軸)14012010080250200150100506060040-50-100-150402020-100-2000049wind——??+“4000EVA

POE

ABS

DMC2023//++4000900204045951%51%PX160160100%1060600265950884.60%51%600306PTA55016530%21010550%19501084110110100%70%20130200701412410050%59.22159.2217.584.60%2702570%50——Q312.34+1367%+262%12.58+580%

2023Q3//PX/PTA

///LLDPE/HDPE/PP/

MT

B

E+4.15%/+5.41%/+3.93%/+1.99%/+7.06%/

+0.08%/+1.83%/+3.49%/+1.76%/+2.95%

2023Q386.58ABS/+10.32%202281770/EVA

100/LDPE

18/PMMA

160/35α-40/POE10001191479.61000140()///800.00140α-3527700.00600.00500.00400.00300.00200.00100.000.003038271204025POE408662010060-1SAR10060303030EVALDPEA2425HDPE3525/ABSHRG401061032850605020LDPEEVADMCPMMAABS70402018120661,4--100.00PBS營

業(yè)成本

（億元

）歸

母凈利

潤（億

元）2080123PTMGNMP51wind——??2000202352——??62066.33%33.67%BOPET100%PBT24PBTPBAT110.4638.

6PBS/PBAT61.46

20223.320222.19??2023202345471015PBT8PBAT20235314.42022126202434.4PP1816(PP)(PE)PE200053——-700.00600.00500.00400.00300.00200.00100.000.002000520PBT24PXPBAT3.3160180120DMC208572ABS3023A404014PC26PBS/PBAT/PBT454710-100.00150PTA1660PBTPBAT158營業(yè)收入（億元）歸母凈利潤（億元）151530BDO

1,4PTMEG416POYPOY10306054——C2/C3?PDH2023Q4/C2/2023Q1/2023Q2/2023Q324.95/20.58/23.37/502023Q3LLDPEPDH8352+1.3%

HDPE9110/+1.83%-2023120.00250.00200.00150.00100.0050.00100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.000.00-50.00營業(yè)收入（億元）同比(%)2023PDH150010005000價差:丙烯-1.2丙烷(美元/噸，右軸)現(xiàn)貨價(中間價):丙烯:CFR中國現(xiàn)貨價:丙烷(冷凍貨):CFR華東1,000500025.0020.0015.0010.005.002,000.001,500.001,000.00500.000.000.00-500.0055歸

母凈利

（億元

）同

比((500)17-08wind18-0819-0820-0821-0822-0823-08——C2α-??ETPα-EAA20228PDH202320236α-α-POEα-/125EO/EGHDPE146/182

202158ETP4050125/11525Energy

TransferPartenersMarcus

HookPennsylvaniaHouston140HDPE40607380207520222022BorealisReliancnterpriseProductPartenersMorgan

s

Point410Sabic3Braskem40α-POE10313Energy

TransferPartenersNederlandTerminal250506010080Texas36552-α-POEA

ECMartin

TerminalBeaumont1000-α-202656PVC5α-1.5wind——79%

圖：天然氣銷售業(yè)務帶動營業(yè)規(guī)模高增長

圖：23H1天然氣銷售業(yè)務貢獻70%的稅前利潤

圖：天然氣銷售業(yè)務稅前利潤率持續(xù)提升

圖：23H1稅前利潤率持續(xù)好轉57資料：公司年報，證券研究——

圖：工業(yè)用戶氣量占比從46%提升至65%圖：工業(yè)用戶數(shù)量同比保持高增速

圖：公司毛差長期保持穩(wěn)定（元/方）圖：公司具備氣源成本優(yōu)勢（元/方）表：2023年中國石油氣源供給價格整體抬升58——-

-

-??---C2-C520222022907202023

2024/700192/440/1202024/40%96/2023700/120/59——??200/60103700-1200DMTO8930%//50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%6060141152197478175220144103891.721.5100300601.971.592.923.142.402016201720182019202020212022

2023H1中煤能源-煤化工中國神華-煤化工-烯烴-70602019/6020——1000/??100/252023EVA3002024120/5201000/120/2025

520/2021602022E2023E110110252024E11011025606060EVA20201010400720700720700812700100215015061——2023H12024??2023H114-1520238.5~9Q22024202420020232023PX稅前噸利潤（元/噸，左軸）POY稅前噸利潤（元/噸，左軸）PTA稅前噸利潤（元/噸，左軸）POY產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈利潤（元/噸，左軸）FDYPOYDTY坯布5000140120100805045403530252015105400030002000100006040020-1000062wind——?CR4/70%100-200CR62016

37.56%202157%12%5%18%8%43%13%13%5%2%5%6%62%3%

5%2023/2023/PTA500630801020117015063windEVA

-——EVA1+N1+N??EVAEVA30//EVAEVAEVA2023H1EVAEVA40%.60/1600PX28039011024070PTA1600202220231+N20223MTOPDH1+NEVA

POEPB

AT3307025EVAPOE30306010120保守情況樂觀情況單位：GW1008060402003026UHMWPEEC/DMC21078MMAEO25.530201512BDOPBAT64α-—LAO1-LAOC621C41-2022LAO3578001-15035745%

LAO95%112.51121-1-3090%LAO50%CP

Chemical

Ineos

Shell78%

LAO

112LAOC4C41-70551-LAO()LAOCPChem

INEOS

ShellLAOSasol,11others,2190080070060050040030020010000.5印度中東歐其他0.450.43%1%3%東南亞Raven,124%非洲7%0.350.3CPChem,1060.250.2西

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