證券研究報告 市場縮量明顯寬基ERP7年90%分位附近 20230924 -中信建投

證券研究報告策略周報本報告由中信建投證券股份有限公司在中華人民共和國（僅為本報告目的，不包括香港、澳門、臺灣）提供。在遵守適用的法律法規(guī)情況下，本報告亦可能由中信建投（國際）證券有限公司在香港提供。請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款和聲明。本周市場表現(xiàn)/景氣/估值要點概覽核心觀點：市場表現(xiàn)層面，本周低市盈率、小盤、金融地產(chǎn)風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)居前。盈利層面，9月23年Wind盈利一致預(yù)期動銷環(huán)比恢復(fù)但分化明顯。估值及交易熱度層面，市場縮量明>市場表現(xiàn)：本周（9.16-9.22）低市盈率、小盤、金融地產(chǎn)風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)居前；高市盈率、大盤、原材料風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)靠后。主要指數(shù)成分中，上證50、滬深300表現(xiàn)居前；寧組合、科創(chuàng)50表現(xiàn)靠后。行業(yè)漲跌幅上，通信/非銀金融/傳媒漲幅居前，美容護(hù)理/社會服務(wù)/有色金屬跌幅居前。熱門概念上，科技板塊憑借周五大幅反彈，周漲幅領(lǐng)先。>盈利預(yù)測變動：9月23年Wind盈利一致預(yù)期上調(diào)幅度靠前的申萬一級行業(yè)為石油石化（+0.36%）、汽車（+0.13%）；下調(diào)幅度靠前的行業(yè)為農(nóng)林牧漁、鋼鐵。數(shù)字經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分方面，以Wind一致預(yù)期看，23年盈利預(yù)期排序：SAAS（172%）>在線教育（134%）>網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全（133%）>數(shù)據(jù)安全（113%）>數(shù)字政府（91%）>游戲（除世紀(jì)華通）（77%）>云計算（66%）>IDC（62%）。>行業(yè)景氣核心指標(biāo)變動：1）周期：價格上行：動力煤、焦煤/焦炭、水泥、玻璃、鋁等；價格下行：螺紋鋼、銅、布油等；2）大金融：地產(chǎn)方面，二手房、新房成交環(huán)比回升，但幅度有限。據(jù)克爾瑞地產(chǎn)監(jiān)測，截至9月17日當(dāng)周，14城二手房成交面積138.8萬平方米，環(huán)比增長16%，同比因去年中秋節(jié)低基數(shù)上升61%。30城新房成交面積同比-9.4%，降幅較上周收窄3.9pct。銀行方面，8月社融信貸回暖；3）高端制造：汽車方面，9月車市整體表現(xiàn)有韌性，“金九銀十”仍可期。據(jù)乘聯(lián)會統(tǒng)計，9月1-17日，乘用車市場零售80.4萬輛，同比增長10%，環(huán)比增長2%。新能源車市場零售31.3萬輛，同比增長29%，環(huán)比增長8%。光伏方面，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈各環(huán)節(jié)分化加劇，靜待需求改善。4）消費：必選方面，需求仍未明顯好轉(zhuǎn)，預(yù)計隨雙節(jié)來臨豬價或小幅上漲但彈性有限?？蛇x方面，消費旺季來臨，白酒動銷環(huán)比恢復(fù)但分化明顯。>估值水平及交易熱度：滬深300、滬深300（除金融）股權(quán)風(fēng)險溢價均位于7年90%分位上方；上證指數(shù)/上證50估值分別處于5年51.6%/62.9%分位數(shù)附近；創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/寧組合分別處于市盈率5年5.5%/0.0%分位數(shù)附近。交易熱度方面，本周市場縮量明顯，日均僅6500億，消費板塊關(guān)注度上行。申萬二級板塊中，汽車零部件、軍工電子交易熱度高。 上證0大/小盤低/中/高市盈率低中高金融地產(chǎn)原材料設(shè)備制造交通運輸科技行業(yè)漲跌幅表現(xiàn)：通信/非銀金融/傳媒表現(xiàn)居前3.02.01.00.0游行游行版他3.0%87.9%AI算力芯片方面，龍頭中際旭創(chuàng)近日表示目前在手訂單充足，客戶對800G/400G需求旺盛，正根據(jù)重點客戶的需求持續(xù)推進(jìn)和完善產(chǎn)品，8月AI大模型致算力芯片供不應(yīng)求，為高端光模塊帶來顯著需求增益。算力方面，9月20日華為聯(lián)合信通院、科大訊飛研究院發(fā)布《星河AI網(wǎng)絡(luò)白皮書》，并在《數(shù)據(jù)中心2030》報告中預(yù)測2030年全球AI算力將超105ZFlops。1.9%36.4%據(jù)彭博社報道，中國正考慮放寬外資對部分A股持股上限，目前討論尚處初期階段。1.5%49.7%微軟更新AI功能，Copilot即將在Windows系統(tǒng)全面鋪開。隨著Copilot在Windows系統(tǒng)中全面鋪開，生成式人工智能將率先從辦公場景進(jìn)入千家萬戶，商業(yè)化落地節(jié)奏不斷加快。6602022-072022-102023-012023-0420202021-022021-072021-122022-052022-102023-032023-082中4中6中8中2中4中6中8中0700w1w37w43w1w37w43000圖：目前整體工業(yè)企業(yè)處于主動去庫末期，被動去庫初期周期階段起始時間終止時間持續(xù)時間主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存2009/8/12010/5/12011/10/12012/9/12010/5/12011/10/12012/9/12013/8/19主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存2013/8/12013/11/12014/9/12015/12/12013/11/12014/9/12015/12/12016/6/136主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存2016/6/12017/3/12018/8/12017/3/12018/8/12019/10/19主動補庫存被動補庫存被動去庫存2019/10/12020/1/12020/3/12020/1/12020/3/12020/10/1327主動補庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動補庫存主動去庫存被動去庫存2020/10/12021/4/12021/11/12022/3/12022/5/12023/5/12021/4/12021/11/12022/3/12022/5/12023/5/12023/7/3167423工業(yè)企業(yè):產(chǎn)成品存貨:同比（%）工業(yè)企業(yè):利潤總額:累計同比（%）08股指PE(TTM)8PE(TTM)PE(TTM)10年分位 近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)科創(chuàng)50科創(chuàng)50指數(shù)近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(整體法,TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(中位數(shù),TTM)3年分位5年分位10年分位PB（LF）3年分位5年分位10年分位萬得全A-3.1%22.72%9.7%萬得全A(除金融、石油石化)-4.6%41.4%22.72%上證指數(shù)-2.3%40.9%51.6%41.0%55.64%滬深300-2.2%8.44%21.01%4.5%9.8%上證50-1.3%47.4%58.6% 68.83%47.1%51.4%中證500-5.8%57.1%46.9%50.00%54.86%28.71%9.0%中證1000-6.7%58.6%41.4%29.18%創(chuàng)業(yè)板指-4.5%5.5%8.44%4.024.029.7%科創(chuàng)50-3.3%茅指數(shù)-1.5%52.7%9.96%45.3%寧組合-1.2%5.109.3%股權(quán)風(fēng)險溢價：滬深300位于7年90%分位上方萬得全A隱含風(fēng)險溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年均值滬深300隱含風(fēng)險溢價(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年均值58473625143021注：隱含風(fēng)險溢價=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年33221100381614927238161492725038161492725注：隱含風(fēng)險溢價=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年股指PE-G/PB-ROE圖：主要指數(shù)PE-G(注：灰色空心圓代表上一月盈利預(yù)期所在位置)圖：主要指數(shù)PB-ROE數(shù)數(shù)數(shù)數(shù)86ROEROE(TTM)-23Q1數(shù)數(shù)萬萬金金中) )板塊年初至今漲跌幅4.4-0.6盈利增速預(yù)測月度盈利調(diào)整周度度盈利調(diào)整8月調(diào)整幅度9月調(diào)整幅度上周調(diào)整幅度本周調(diào)整幅度石油石化30.9%-0.68%-0.68%0.37%1.0.36%-0.4%43.9%-1.68%-1.68%0.07%-1.14%-1.14%0.03%公用事業(yè)-58.7%84.6%90.1%-1.61%-1.61%-0.12%-1.39%-1.39%-0.24%通信-13.09.5%-0.36%-0.36%-0.14%-0.10%-0.10%-0.01%綜合83.0%-4.3%-34.4%6.19%-0.15%2.13%0.00%銀行-0.69.4-6.34.3%-1.14%-1.14%-0.26%-0.83%-0.83%-0.20%家用電器9.9%-0.03%-0.03%-0.27%0.00%0.00%-0.13%建筑裝飾-3.3%-0.64%-0.64%-0.27%-0.60%-0.60%-0.09%食品飲料9.8%21.9%-1.40%-1.40%-0.56%-1.51%-1.51%-0.28%傳媒82.2%-68.9%213.2%-0.97%-0.97%-0.63%-0.96%-0.96%-0.38%輕工制造-2.3-15.15.29.6-10.4-9.4-3.10.6%-32.2%61.4%-3.29%-3.29%-0.69%-1.87%-1.87%-0.37%社會服務(wù)8.3%-43.4%2580.2%-1.55%-1.55%-0.81%-0.27%-0.27%-0.42%-0.42%機械設(shè)備9.5%-6.1%31.6%-2.07%-2.07%-0.81%-1.19%-1.19%-0.39%非銀金融5.4%-26.9%32.9%-3.93%-3.93%-0.91%-2.68%-2.68%-0.78%-0.78%交通運輸2041.1%-44.1%-1.28%-1.28%-1.18%-1.18%-0.16%-0.16%-0.34%計算機-44.2%95.9%-3.79%-3.79%-1.50%-1.50%-1.31%-1.31%-0.76%-0.76%醫(yī)藥生物55.6%-6.2%26.9%-2.17%-2.17%-1.54%-1.54%-1.51%-1.51%-0.67%-0.67%國防軍工8.5%-7.4%-2.58%-2.58%-1.57%-1.57%-2.54%-2.54%-0.54%-0.54%煤炭51.7%-12.6% -11.73%-1.63%-1.63% -5.12%-0.52%-0.52%美容護(hù)理-19.7-11.5-24.1-19.338.9%-34.8%58.9%2.17%2.17%-1.63%-1.63%-4.45%-1.96%-1.96%房地產(chǎn)-77.4%-213.4%86.7%-1.87%-1.87%-1.86%-1.86%-3.36%-3.36%-0.25%商貿(mào)零售-164.5%61.1%-2.01%-2.01%-1.94%-1.94%-2.48%-2.48%-0.32%電力設(shè)備42.0%82.8%31.0%-4.99%-4.99%-2.16%-2.16%-2.26%-2.26%-1.13%-1.13%紡織服飾59.8%-42.8%25.7%-2.51%-2.51%-2.23%-2.23%-0.41%-0.41%-0.22%環(huán)保-2.8-10.2-4.7-8.0-13.3%-11.1%31.1%-1.69%-1.69%-2.45%-2.45%-1.16%-1.16%-0.07%96.2%-28.4%21.1%-6.58%-2.50%-2.50%-4.16%-1.41%-1.41%基礎(chǔ)化工-5.6%-2.3%-8.47%-4.96% -5.93%-3.04%有色金屬68.4%2.0%-7.55%-5.10% -5.81%-2.27%-2.27%建筑材料-46.1% -13.30%-5.11%-3.42%-3.42%-1.36%-1.36%鋼鐵-0.7-13.089.9%-72.9%52.5%-5.64%-5.64%-2.24%-2.24%-2.87%農(nóng)林牧漁-140.8%36.2%-26.98%-13.26%-13.15%-7.36%指標(biāo)頻率銅數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比指標(biāo)頻率銅數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比趨勢更新時間2023/9/222023/9/222023/8/31價格陰極銅期貨國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨日日6.66.8萬元/噸萬元/噸-5.5%-2.4%8%精煉銅月111.7萬噸8.0%16.4%產(chǎn)量銅材進(jìn)口銅礦+廢銅月月186.6285.3萬噸萬噸-0.5%34.3%-0.5%18.2%2023/8/312023/8/312023/9/222023/9/222023/9/222023/9/222023/8/31庫存上期所LME+COMEX周日5.418.6萬噸萬噸-16.9%11.4%49%指標(biāo)頻率鋁數(shù)值單位環(huán)比趨勢價格鋁期貨國內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨日日2.02.0萬元/噸萬元/噸0.9%1.0%4%7%電解鋁月360.0萬噸3.4%3.1%產(chǎn)量鋁材進(jìn)口鋁土礦開工率月月月548.31163.595.6萬噸萬噸%3.8%-9.9%2.26.6%8.8%2.12023/8/312023/8/312023/7/312023/9/222023/9/22庫存上期所LME周日9.048.2萬噸萬噸-13.7%-2.6%-54%39%圖：煤炭板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)動力煤更新時間更新時間指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢動力煤期貨價環(huán)渤海動力煤紐卡斯?fàn)柆F(xiàn)貨價動力煤長協(xié)價元/噸元/噸量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比月月%%--庫存CCTD主流港口庫存周5827.7萬噸1.1%5%樣本區(qū)域電廠日耗周213萬噸0.5%需求當(dāng)月發(fā)電量月消費量：動力煤：電力月24246.0萬噸9.4%11%焦煤指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢國內(nèi)期貨價港口現(xiàn)貨價日日量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比月月2.050.5%%-1.6-16.4 - 六港口合計焦化廠可用天數(shù)周周天社會融資規(guī)模存量:同比M2:同比GDP當(dāng)社會融資規(guī)模存量:同比M2:同比GDP當(dāng)8642050圖：地產(chǎn)板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：社融/M2/GDP同比情況指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢更新時間2022/12/312022/12/312023/9/172023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/172023/9/172023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/172023/9/172023/6/302023/6/302023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/31土地新建土地購置面積同比新增土地成交價款同比土地溢價率月月周-51.6-51.31.7%%%6.8-0.5-0.3---2.6價格70城新房價格指數(shù)同比70城二手房價格指數(shù)同比百城住宅價格：二線：同比百城住宅價格：三線：同比二手房價格指數(shù)月月月月月周-0.6-3.2-0.2-0.5-0.2182.3%%%%%0.00-0.100.00-0.15-0.14-0.1%------4.5%量30城成交面積同比商品房銷售面積：累計同比開發(fā)投資：累計同比施工面積：累計同比新開工面積：累計同比竣工面積：累計同比周月月月月月-9.4-7.1-8.8-7.1-24.419.2%%%%%%3.9-0.6-0.3-0.30.1-1.3------庫存10城可售面積10城存銷比周周8465.570.7萬平米%0.2%3.9-3.3%8.6資金住房貸款加權(quán)平均利率個人住房貸款余額同比開發(fā)資金累計同比國內(nèi)貸款累計同比個人按揭貸款累計同比自籌資金累計同比季季月月月月4.1-0.7-12.9-12.8-4.3-22.9%%%%%%0.0-1.0-1.7-1.3-3.30.1-0.5-6.912.114.620.1-10.6-指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位環(huán)比-指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位環(huán)比趨勢更新時間2023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/222022/10/312022/10/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312022/12/31價格單晶硅片182mm單晶硅片210mm單晶PERC電池片182mm單晶PERC電池片210mm單晶PERC組件-182mm光伏玻璃3.2mmEVA出廠價-揚子巴斯夫周周周周周周周日85.04.228.0元0.0%-1.2%-4.2%0.0%-1.6%0.0%-5.7%-71.9%-55.5%-57.6%-46.9%-43.8%-38.9%5.7%-39.4%產(chǎn)銷國內(nèi)裝機量累計同比太陽能電池產(chǎn)量同比逆變器出口金額同比光伏電池出口金額同比月月月月月50.498.777.8-28.3-16.6%%%%%-81.2-7.1-15.3 ---月96.5%-開工率月月月84.488.061.1%%%-1.2-0.9---2022/12/312022/12/312022/12/31國慶假期將至，各地新一輪地方補貼與廠商三季度末沖量共發(fā)力環(huán)比上行1.2%，硅料環(huán)節(jié)供需仍偏緊，整體價格小幅上行。硅片環(huán)節(jié)相對被動，短期價格走勢分化、主流尺寸電指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比趨勢更新時間2023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/212023/9/172023/9/172023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/9/222023/9/222023/9/222023/9/22汽車消費指數(shù)庫存預(yù)警指數(shù)二手車價格月月月80.856.96.5萬元5.4-0.9-1%-8.52.2-1%產(chǎn)量乘用車產(chǎn)量半鋼胎開工率月周227.572.1萬輛%8%-0.15%9.2銷量周度日均零售同比周度日均批售同比二手車交易量乘用車銷量新能源車銷量周周月月月6.022.0155.9227.371.6%%萬輛萬輛萬輛-8.013.0-1%8%11.7%--6%7%35%成本橡膠.期貨價玻璃.期貨價鋁.期貨價鋼鐵.期貨價日日日日14120.01726.019505.03773.0元/噸元/噸元/噸元/噸0.0%1.6%0.5%-0.7%7%4%0%豬集中上市，市場維持供大于求局面。參考去年節(jié)日預(yù)期及二育活躍下價格較強上漲，中秋、國慶雙節(jié)將至預(yù)計對市場有所提圖：養(yǎng)殖板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：飲品指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比趨勢更新時間2023/9/222023/9/222023/9/12023/9/12023/9/222023/9/22價格外三元生豬價格生豬期貨價仔豬價格豬肉價格日日周周31.422.8元/公斤萬元/噸元/公斤元/公斤-2%-2%-1%-33%-29%-34%-26%養(yǎng)殖利潤-生豬養(yǎng)殖利潤-仔豬周周-43.8-99.5元/頭元/頭-16.3-19.5-713.0-900.4養(yǎng)殖利潤生豬飼料價豬料比價周周3.74.6元/公斤-1%0.04%-1.82023/9/132023/9/13豬料比價平衡點周4.52023/9/132023/7/312023/7/31產(chǎn)量生豬存欄同比能繁母豬存欄同比月月0.0-0.6%%0.0-1.1--酒類更新時間2023/9/202023/9/202023/9/202023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/9/232023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/312023/8/31指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位環(huán)比同比趨勢白酒批價指數(shù)同比名酒批價指數(shù)同比地方酒批價指數(shù)同比飛天茅臺散瓶五糧液-普五瀘州老窖-國窖舍得-品味洋河夢之藍(lán)M6+古井貢-古20口子窖-10年產(chǎn)量京東線上銷額旬旬旬日周周周周周周月月0.3%0.0%2820.096088033360047521526.8元元元元元元元萬千升億元-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%0.0%0.0%-1.7%-2.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-7%-2.0%-4.3%-6.2%-6.5%-13.6%0.0%-5%47%36大中城市均價月4.1元/罐-1.0%1.0%啤酒產(chǎn)量月374.4萬千升-7%-6%淘寶+京東線上銷額月3.7億元-20%-13%體)體)位數(shù))五日成交額占比五年分位數(shù)近一周變化食品飲料輕工制造紡織服飾社會服務(wù)醫(yī)藥生物商貿(mào)零售美容護(hù)理農(nóng)林牧漁-0.19-0.01-0.19-0.14機械設(shè)備-0.05-0.22-0.07石油石化基礎(chǔ)化工有色金屬-0.02-0.10-0.06-0.16-0.03-0.24-0.17-0.19金融非銀金融房地產(chǎn)-0.03-0.14公用事業(yè)-0.13-0.22)紡 美 機建食品金屬 公用事業(yè)石融900景氣方向板塊近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)近四周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)電力設(shè)備計算機國防軍工傳媒家用電器非銀金融建筑裝飾銀行石油石化通信公用事業(yè)煤炭0.76%0.23%0.17%0.12%0.07%0.02%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.38%0.38%0.87%0.87%食品飲料食品飲料交通運輸輕工制造紡織服飾機械設(shè)備環(huán)保社會服務(wù)醫(yī)藥生物基礎(chǔ)化工房地產(chǎn)商貿(mào)零售有色金屬建筑材料美容護(hù)理農(nóng)林牧漁鋼鐵2.14%備炭備炭備食品飲料公用事業(yè) 電子板塊板塊23Q2ROE(TTM)2010年以來分位23Q2相比23Q1ROE(TTM)變動方向23Q2相比23Q1ROE(TTM)變動通信電力設(shè)備有色金屬煤炭基礎(chǔ)化工國防軍工石油石化機械設(shè)備食品飲料鋼鐵家用電器美容護(hù)理農(nóng)林牧漁傳媒紡織服飾環(huán)保交通運輸輕工制造公用事業(yè)商貿(mào)零售建筑材料汽車非銀金融社會服務(wù)醫(yī)藥生物計算機建筑裝飾電子銀行房地產(chǎn)98.0%92.3%53.8%71.1%61.5%67.3%71.1%28.8%53.8%46.1%28.8%26.9%32.6%9.6%5.7%5.7%7.6%3.8%3.8%9.6%3.8%上行0.2上行0.2下行-1.7下行-2.7下行-2.6上行0.2下行-0.6上行0.2上行1.0下行-1.3上行0.8上行0.8下行-1.5上行0.5上行0.5上行0.0上行0.4上行0.0上行0.8上行1.2下行-0.8上行0.8下行-0.6上行1.7下行-0.3上行0.0下行0.0下行-0.7上行0.1上行1.5主要申萬二級行業(yè)估值及交易指標(biāo)：電池、家大類行業(yè)近一周23年盈利預(yù)測變動(%)PE(TTM,整體)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(TTM.中位數(shù))3年分位5年分位10年分位PB（LF）3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交額占比五年分位數(shù)近一周變化換手率(MA5)五年分位近一周變化消費家電零部件3.40%28.32.7%2.7%30.5%23.6%30.130.8%41.7%28.9%3.31.2%30.5%39.6%82.3%0.0%26.5%-0.28養(yǎng)殖業(yè)0.14%23.849.0%41.0%31.7%28.328.8%46.5%25.9%3.014.7%8.8%7.9%9.2%0.0%0.2%-0.03化學(xué)制劑0.06%33.025.8%20.6%13.8%27.63.2%5.1%2.6%2.920.2%13.0%6.5%93.3%0.4%81.8%0.19食品加工0.05%22.90.7%0.4%0.2%29.616.0%11.0%5.6%2.91.7%1.0%0.5%12.9%0.0%18.1%0.15白色家電0.05%11.116.3%11.3%9.5%13.41.3%0.8%0.4%2.421.5%12.9%6.4%7.8%0.1%0.4%0.03啤酒0.01%34.10.7%0.4%7.4%30.30.6%0.4%2.0%4.22.1%38.3%68.3%55.7%0.0%42.7%0.23小家電-0.01%22.32.1%4.0%2.5%22.47.7%26.0%17.6%3.51.3%23.0%36.1%38.5%0.0%18.1%0.00-0.03%29.57.6%7.6%25.7%54.1%32.17.7%36.6%42.8%8.118.4%34.9%67.5%25.1%0.1%1.7%-0.05CXO-0.18%23.813.4%8.1%4.0%31.77.1%4.3%2.7%3.89.5%5.7%2.9%73.9%0.1%78.1%0.10酒店餐飲-0.19%102.524.0%54.3%76.5%53.319.2%37.8%42.3%2.75.9%39.4%21.1%94.2%0.0%78.0%-0.21醫(yī)療器械-0.21%22.959.7%35.9%17.9%28.112.8%7.8%4.0%2.84.3%2.6%1.3%32.7%0.1%9.1%0.07家居用品-0.23%24.015.5%14.2%7.1%24.946.8%34.9%17.9%2.430.7%54.4%29.2%29.2%0.0%26.5%-0.08化妝品-0.51%36.70.7%0.7%32.3%51.7%40.021.8%31.9%29.8%3.92.4%34.4%29.5%63.4%0.0%13.6%0.06醫(yī)療服務(wù)-0.52%77.37.4%7.4%23.1%40.8%76.425.0%36.2%42.5%6.31.2%32.7%51.4%41.7%0.0%4.9%0.01航空機場-1.13%1091.464.9%78.9%89.5%30.439.1%55.9%72.6%3.377.7%86.6%92.6%28.2%0.0%11.4%0.02制造電池4.58%21.90.3%0.2%0.1%26.50.6%0.4%0.2%3.20.2%19.7%12.4%37.2%-0.1%0.5%-0.11軍工電子2.85%43.626.7%24.8%12.3%38.72.6%1.6%1.0%3.75.5%34.1%26.8%94.8%-0.2%51.8%-0.56航空裝備1.25%45.80.5%5.0%2.5%48.40.0%21.2%11.2%3.30.8%35.8%31.6%6.4%0.0%0.9%-0.05汽車零部件0.20%27.131.1%56.2%58.1%35.337.8%56.9%42.8%2.227.8%54.0%37.6%97.7%0.0%59.8%-0.09光伏設(shè)備0.02%12.60.3%0.2%0.1%23.51.3%1.6%1.0%3.00.3%30.6%28.2%43.2%0.1%1.1%0.00工程機械-0.01%22.265.8%79.5%51.7%27.678.2%81.1%51.6%29.7%29.8%60.3%13.9%0.0%7.4%0.01機器人-0.04%71.379.3%87.5%66.1%47.667.9%74.8%47.9%4.062.2%73.0%38.5%86.9%0.0%67.4%-0.23乘用車-0.14%24.24.8%4.8%42.7%71.5%19.910.9%26.0%27.4%2.312.2%47.2%66.6%74.2%0.1%47.5%-0.06電網(wǎng)設(shè)備-0.25%16.60.7%0.4%0.2%35.146.8%40.9%26.7%2.22.9%37.7%22.5%0.9%0.0%1.5%-0.04風(fēng)電設(shè)備-0.75%26.562.4%73.0%49.0%28.246.8%58.7%40.3%0.3%11.0%7.9%42.3%0.0%5.0%-0.03TMT游戲2.08%38.283.4%86.5%53.6%34.082.1%75.6%50.4%2.972.7%69.7%38.3%69.7%0.3%40.2%0.16消費電子-0.39%29.132.8%29.9%15.2%37.765.4%50.6%27.5%2.815.9%9.6%4.8%30.5%0.2%23.0%-0.04半導(dǎo)體-1.46%60.456.1%45.3%24.7%73.367.3%60.8%44.0%3.81.6%19.0%25.7%32.0%-0.1%9.9%-0.29金融地產(chǎn)公用證券0.06%21.571.9%45.0%42.5%28.985.3%53.7%55.2%35.3%27.7%16.6%46.5%0.4%49.1%0.10基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)-0.01%7.938.3%32.1%16.0%13.534.0%35.3%18.3%0.729.4%18.4%9.2%63.3%0.0%55.0%-0.05城商行-0.03%4.85.7%3.4%8.9%5.00.6%0.4%0.2%0.58.9%5.4%2.7%77.6%0.1%63.7%0.13電力-0.06%23.436.9%62.0%73.1%23.235.3%56.1%45.4%29.8%53.7%39.1%48.5%-0.4%24.9%-0.13物流-0.10%14.03.3%2.0%1.4%19.913.5%8.2%4.2%2.4%1.4%0.7%25.8%0.0%1.9%-0.08房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)-1.35%14.190.3%94.2%63.7%17.356.4%72.9%42.2%0.814.5%8.7%4.3%63.2%-0.3%70.6%-0.14周期貴金屬0.18%39.850.6%45.7%34.2%33.638.5%25.5%17.9%3.053.4%66.3%53.2%42.9%0.0%27.8%-0.03煤炭開采0.00%7.235.0%27.5%13.7%7.437.2%22.8%14.2%45.8%67.4%53.1%83.1%-0.1%53.4%-0.09裝修建材-0.21%27.438.7%46.8%31.3%31.580.1%76.9%40.5%2.47.8%18.6%15.5%13.9%0.1%16.4%0.07工業(yè)金屬-0.83%18.156.5%34.0%16.9%26.059.0%43.5%23.4%2.052.9%71.7%48.8%48.4%-0.1%12.0%-0.13農(nóng)化制品-1.33%13.534.0%20.4%10.2%19.343.6%31.5%19.6%0.9%31.5%17.3%15.8%0.0%0.8%-0.02普鋼-4.35%26.395.5%97.3%66.7%14.866.7%78.7%60.1%0.838.2%35.8%26.3%42.9%0.0%27.8%-0.03能源金屬-8.56%7.05.1%3.1%1.5%6.89.6%5.9%3.7%2.00.4%0.2%0.1%29.9%-0.1%1.3%-0.19智能汽車半導(dǎo)體材料計算機設(shè)備 0.340.530.471.150.750.750.881.202.101.612.110.270.371.201.590.280.440.300.781.041.471.04數(shù)字經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實際增速23年預(yù)測增速上游網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全顯示面板服務(wù)器操作系統(tǒng)半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備計算機設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體材料半導(dǎo)體分立器件消費電子光纖光纜汽車電子基站光模塊半導(dǎo)體封測-77%智能汽車半導(dǎo)體材料計算機設(shè)備 0.340.530.471.150.750.750.881.202.101.612.110.270.371.201.590.280.440.300.781.041.471.04數(shù)字經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實際增速23年預(yù)測增速上游網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全顯示面板服務(wù)器操作系統(tǒng)半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備計算機設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體材料半導(dǎo)體分立器件消費電子光纖光纜汽車電子基站光模塊半導(dǎo)體封測-77% -3%-82% 4% 12% 25%-12% 37%-13%-15%324%9% 4% 33%-45%-2%133%62%59%51%47%46%46%40%30%29%29%28%22%21%21%9%44.732.727.728.054.029.725.322.522.921.916.524.226.844.033.418.20.550.640.550.570.57數(shù)據(jù)安全云計算工業(yè)軟件運營商-48%-40%-20% -4%9%172%113%66%40%47.141.336.148.116.30.54下游在線教育數(shù)字政府游戲（除世紀(jì)華通）數(shù)字媒體金融科技智能電網(wǎng)智能汽車智能物流667%-60%0%-23%-11%43%127%7%134%91%77%48%40%15%13%12%37.140.523.025.931.215.119.812.50.54 金融科技運營商基站半導(dǎo)體分立器件服務(wù)器顯示面板金融科技 動力電池23年預(yù)測增速儲能逆變器風(fēng)電設(shè)備風(fēng)電設(shè)備電池組件消費電子光伏加工設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備軍工半導(dǎo)體材料動力電池智能汽車新能源整車創(chuàng)新藥新材料智能電網(wǎng)硅料硅片52%51%49%46%43%40% -類別指數(shù)名稱本周漲跌幅近1月漲跌幅PS（TTM）三年分位PE（TTM）三年分位換手率(MA5)五年分位近一周變化汽車熱管理無人駕駛1.0%1.0%0.8%6.4%5.5%30.9%43.033.3%16.7%-0.550.5%36.94.0%35.3%-0.45新能源發(fā)電儲能光伏逆變器特高壓光伏屋頂HJT電池TOPcon電池0.0%-5.3%-0.2%-6.4%-0.3%-1.7%0.4%23.70.4%0.1%-0.212.80.3%20.80.3%0.140.4%16.10.4%0.0%-0.10 -0.5%-6.6% -0.7%-3.3% -1.4%-2.4%0.3%12.60.3%0.5%-0.020.3%11.60.3%0.2%-0.110.4%18.70.4%0.2%0.01半導(dǎo)體EDA先進(jìn)封裝IGBT第三代半導(dǎo)體半導(dǎo)體材料半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備 -0.8%1.6% -1.4%6.2% -1.8%-0.3% -2.3%1.2% -2.6%4.4% -4.0%-0.4%18.2%28.632.1%33.7%-0.1727.0%76.297.7%36.5%-0.040.3%24.50.3%5.9%-0.113.70.3%67.635.5%0.8%-0.303.41.5%34.11.5%3.1%-0.556.32.3%39.60.3%19.3%-0.17新消費CRO培育鉆石預(yù)制菜1.1%1.1%4.6%5.79.7%25.613.4%70.8%0.16-0.3%1.1% -0.4%0.8% -0.5%-1.4%3.921.8%55.549.8%34.5%2.013.61.8%45.54.4%5.5%0.100.90.3%60.359.8%59.8%28.4%-0.13科技6G華為鴻蒙東數(shù)西算工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)AIGC機器視覺數(shù)字貨幣元宇宙數(shù)字經(jīng)濟云計算信創(chuàng) 2.5%4.0% 2.2%2.3% 2.1%-2.1% 1.8%1.3% 1.4%-0.3% 1.2%4.0% 1.1%-1.5% 0.9%-0.3% 0.3%-1.4% 0.2%-3.2%-0.2%-1.4%2.5 38.4%37.415.6%--1.23558.270.9%70.9%83.3%-0.732.883.4%83.4%101.490.4%62.9%-0.64 37.2%22.040.4%0.007.3%--54.8%-0.803.0 50.2%36.1 45.6%24.3%-0.362.97.7%127.158.4%6.3%-0.222.324.0%52.994.9%7.4%-0.0631.3%25.8 40.6%7.0%-0.082.2 42.7%68.158.7%39.8%-0.372.313.6%37.026.8%-0.11其他機器人中字頭央企大飛機1.9%2.2%-0.3%-1.6%20.7%28.950.9%36.0%-0.110.795.3%11.578.3%78.3%14.9%-0.04-1.6%-1.6%-0.3%2.80.8%45.51.0%0.5%-0.11指數(shù)本周漲跌幅近1月漲跌幅近3月漲跌幅PE（TTM）3年分位5年分位10年分位標(biāo)普500道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)上證指數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指英國富時100德國DAX恒生指數(shù)法國CAC40韓國綜合指數(shù)45.5%48.8%