大摩-美國科技公司估值 Where Do Mag 7 Valuations Stand Today0810 2024

Morganstanley

August7,202404:01AMGMT

RESEARCH

Idea

USTechnology|NorthAmerica

WhereDoMag7Valuations

StandToday?

Mag7valuationsare30%offtheT5Ypeak,butstill50%abovetheT5Ytrough,andin-linewithT5Yavg.ButwhenadjustedforfutureEPSgrowth,theMag7tradesata40%discounttotheT5YPEG,acriticaldistinctioninasoftlandingscenario&

supportiveofmega-capsoutperformingsmall-caps.

Amidsttherecentstockmarketsell-off,it'simportanttounderstandwhere

valuationsstandforthestalwartsoftheUSstockmarket,TheMag7.TheMag7isdown9%month-to-datethroughAugust5th,onaverage,underperformingthe

broader6%declineintheS&P500and8%MTDdrawdownintheNASDAQ,withTSLAandNVDAtherelativeunderperformerswithintheMag7(eachdown14%

MTD),andMETAtherelativeoutperformerofthegroup(atflatMTD).Acrossthe3mostcommonvaluationmetrics-P/E,P/FCFandEV/EBITDA-Mag7valuationsarenow30%offthetrailing5yearpeak,5%belowthetrailing5yearaverage,and50-60%abovetrailing5yeartroughvaluations(Exhibit1).ThiscomparestotheNASDAQ100thatis20%offitsT5Yvaluationhighand37%aboveitsT5Y

valuationlow,andtheRussell2000thatis56%offitsT5Yvaluationhighsbut50%aboveitsT5Yvaluationlow(Exhibit2).

However,whenadjustedforfuturegrowthprospects,theMag7currentlytradesatamaterialdiscounttothetrailing5yearvaluationaverage,asforwardEPS

growthisexpectedtoacceleratevs.trailing5yeargrowth(25%forwardCAGRvs.21%trailingCAGR;Exhibit3),implyingamedianMag7forwardPEGratioof0.8xvs.atrailingPEGratioof1.3x(Exhibit4).

Asaresult,we'dconcludethatwhileMag7valuationsstillfacesignificant

downsidevaluationriskinablackswanorrecessionscenario,currentMag7valuationsrelativetofuturegrowthprospectsareattractiveaftertherecentdrawdown,withamedianPEGrationearly40%lowerthanthetrailing5yearPEGratio,whichwebelieveisanimportantdistinctioninasoftlandingscenario

(theMShouseview)andsupportiveofmega-capscontinuingtooutperformsmallcaps.

MorganStanley&Co.LLC

ErikWWoodring

EquityAnalyst

212296-8083

+1

Erik.Woodring@

KeithWeiss,CFA

EquityAnalyst

212761-4149

+1

Keith.Weiss@

BrianNowak,CFA

EquityAnalyst

212761-3365

+1

Brian.Nowak@

JosephMoore

EquityAnalyst

212761-7516

+1

Joseph.Moore@

AdamJonas,CFA

EquityAnalyst

212761-1726

+1

Adam.Jonas@

MayaCNeuman

ResearchAssociate

212761-1946

+1

Maya.Neuman@

MattBombassei

ResearchAssociate

Matt.Bombassei@

TheodorJThun

ResearchAssociate

Theo.Thun@+1212761-5356

MasonWayne

ResearchAssociate

Mason.Wayne@+1212761-6012

DanielaMHaigian

ResearchAssociate

Daniela.Haigian@+1212761-6071

ITHardware

NorthAmerica

IndustryViewIn-Line

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith

companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley

Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley

Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

2

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

Exhibit1:ThemedianMag7stockistradingabout8%belowT5YaverageP/E,about40%abovetheT5Ytrough,andabout30%belowpeakmultiples.

NextFiscalYearP/E

CurrentT5YAvg.T5YTroughT5YPeak

Current%Diffvs.

T5YAvg.T5YTroughT5YPeak

Alphabet17.9x19.4x12.6x26.6x

-8%42%-33%

Amazon23.6x37.5x21.5x58.3x

-37%

10%

-59%

Apple28.3x24.5x14.7x34.8x

15%

93%

-19%

MetaPlatforms19.4x17.6x8.1x26.9x

10%141%-28%

Microsoft25.7x27.4x19.0x34.0x

-6%35%-25%

Nvidia26.6x36.6x20.9x66.7x

-27%28%-60%

Tesla63.3x72.2x16.8x182.9x

-12%

276%

-65%

AverageMedian

-9%-8%

89%42%

-41%-33%

NextFiscalYearP/FCF

CurrentT5YAvg.T5YTroughT5YPeak

Current%Diffvs.

T5YAvg.T5YTroughT5YPeak

Alphabet21.4x21.2x13.7x28.3x

1%57%-24%

Amazon23.9x31.4x19.1x46.9x

-24%

25%

-49%

Apple26.7x22.9x13.5x30.3x

16%98%

-12%

MetaPlatforms23.8x23.0x12.8x32.2x

4%87%-26%

Microsoft32.1x30.3x21.0x44.6x

6%53%-28%

Nvidia30.0x40.4x22.4x69.7x

-26%

34%

-57%

Tesla140.2x110.5x26.2x268.9x

27%

435%

-48%

AverageMedian

-35%-28%

1%4%

113%57%

NextFiscalYearEV/EBITDA

CurrentT5YAvg.T5YTroughT5YPeak

Current%Diffvs.

T5YAvg.T5YTroughT5YPeak

Alphabet11.8x11.8x7.5x16.0x

0%57%-26%

Amazon11.1x15.8x8.4x26.6x

-30%32%-58%

Apple21.4x18.4x9.9x25.0x

16%

117%

-15%

MetaPlatforms11.6x10.2x4.3x16.1x

13%171%-28%

Microsoft17.1x18.4x13.0x22.8x

-7%32%-25%

Nvidia21.5x31.7x19.0x55.3x

-32%

13%

-61%

Tesla32.2x35.6x9.6x78.5x

-10%

234%

-59%

AverageMedian

94%57%

-7%-7%

-39%-28%

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Exhibit2:TheS&P500iscurrentlytrading2%aboveT5Yaverage,whiletheNASDAQ100andS&P500arecurrentlytrading3-5%below.

PricetoNextFiscalYearEarnings(ConsensusEstimates)

Trailing5YearRangeCurrentP/ETrailing5YAvg.

80x75x70x65x60x55x50x45x40x

35x30.5x

30x

25x23.4x

20x

15x17.4x

10x13.6x

5x8.1x0x

182.9x

54.4x

16.1x

16.8x

14.7x

34.0x

26.9x

26.6x

34.8x

58.3x

66.7x

20.9x

21.5x

19.0x

12.6x

Russell2000

AppleMetaMicrosoftAlphabetTeslaNvidiaAmazonS&P500NasdaqPlatforms100

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

Exhibit3:TheMag7medianforward2-yearEPSCAGRpointstoanaccelerationingrowthvs.thetrailing5-yearmedianEPSCAGR...

Trailing5-Yearvs.Forward2-YearEPSCAGR

Trailing5YCAGRForward2YCAGR

80%

70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

70%

50%

42%

27%

22%22%23%

20%

21%

25%

16%14%

10%

14%

AlphabetAmazonAppleMetaPlatformsMicrosoftNvidiaMedian

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:T5Y=FY18-FY23,F2Y=FY23-FY25.TSLAisexcludedduetooutliers.

Exhibit4:...WhichimpliesthatonaPEGratiobasis,themedianMag7stocktradesatanattractive0.8xforwardPEGvs.a1.3xtrailingPEG.

TrailingPEG(5-YearEPSCAGR)vs.ForwardPEG(2-YearEPSCAGR)

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

TrailingPEGForwardPEG

2.8

1.9

1.61.6

1.4

0.9

1.2

1.3

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.8

AlphabetAmazonAppleMetaPlatformsMicrosoftNvidiaMedian

Source:Bloomberg,Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:T5Y=FY18-FY23,F2Y=FY23-FY25.TSLAisexcludedduetooutliers.

Additionally,Mag7Consensusrevenuerevisions(ex-NVDA&TSLA)areup2%inthelast12months,whileEPSrevisionareup16-21%,whichwebelieveis

supportiveoftheviewthat:1)CY24Mag7results/guidancehavegenerallypannedoutslightlybetterthanexpectedoverthelasttwoquarters(Exhibit5),and2)

CY25expectationsarerising,whichisworthkeepinganeyeonsothatexpectationsdon'tgetaheadofthemselves(Exhibit6).Furthermore,giventhatMag7EPS

revisionsareoutpacingrevenuerevisions(Exhibit7andExhibit8),we'dconcludethat,onaverage,theMag7cohortisbenefittingfromoperationalefficienciesmoresothansmall-caps,supportingthemarket'squalityanddefensibilitybiaswiththeMag7.

Lastly,we'dhighlightthatbasedon13-FfilingsasofMarch31,2024,the

majorityoftheMag7remainsunder-ownedvs.theS&P500weighting.Asoftheendof1Q24(2Q2413-F'swillbeoutAugust15th),MSFTwasthemostunder-ownedoftheMag7bythelargest100activeinstitutionalmanagersrelativetoits

weightingintheS&P500(-234bps),followedbyNVDA(-146bps),AAPL(-126bps),andAMZN(-98bps).Conversely,META(+25bps),TSLA(+15bps)andGOOGL

(+3bps)arethemostover-ownedoftheMag7(Exhibit9).Webelievethisadded

MorganStanleyResearch3

4

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

contextisimportantgiventhat,onaverage,afteradjustingformarketcapand

earningsbeats,thereisastatisticallysignificantrelationshipbetweenlowactive

ownershiprelativetotheS&P500andfuturestockperformance.Meaningthat,onaverage,stockswithactiveownershipmuchlowerthanthemarkettypically

experienceatechnicalpullhigher,andviceversa.

Below,weshareMag7company-specificviewsonvaluation,fundamentals,andstock-specificriskstoprovideinvestorswithaddedcontextontherecentsell-off.

Exhibit5:Overthepastyear,CY24Consensusrevenueestimateshavebeenrevised2%higher,onaverage,acrosstheMag7...

CY24ConsensusRevenueEstimateRevisions

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%-40%

Aug-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Jan-24

Feb-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

May-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

103%

-4%

——GOOGLAMZN——AAPL——META——MSFT——NVDA——TSLA--Average*

-8%

2%

4%

2%

0%

-21%

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.*Note:AverageexcludesTSLAandNVDA.

Exhibit7:Overthepastyear,CY24ConsensusEPSestimateshavebeenrevised21%higher,onaverage,acrosstheMag7...

GOOGL——AMZNAAPL——METAMSFT——NVDATSLA--Average*

CY24ConsensusEPSEstimateRevisions

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

Aug-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Jan-24

Feb-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

May-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

6%

134%

55%

26%

21%

15%

2%

-50%

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.*Note:AverageexcludesTSLAandNVDA.

Exhibit6:...andCY25Consensusrevenueestimateshavebeenrevised2%higher,onaverage,overthesameperiod.

CY25ConsensusRevenueEstimateRevisions

160%140%120%100% 80% 60% 40% 20%0%

-20%-40%

Aug-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Jan-24

Feb-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

May-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

——GOOGLAMZN——AAPL——META——MSFTNVDA——TSLA--Average*

136%

-4%

10%5%

2%

—————(2%

-26%

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.*Note:AverageexcludesTSLAandNVDA.

Exhibit8:...andCY25ConsensusEPSestimateshavebeenrevised16%

higher,onaverage,overthesameperiod.

CY25ConsensusEPSEstimateRevisions

200%

——GOOGLAMZN——AAPLMETA——MSFTNVDA——TSLA--Average*

164%

150%

22%

100%

38%

0%

16%

3%

50%

12%

2%

-50%

-45%

-100%

Aug-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Jan-24

Feb-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

Apr-24

May-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch.*Note:AverageexcludesTSLAandNVDA.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

Exhibit9:OftheMag7stocks,MSFT,NVDA,AAPLandAMZNarethemostunder-owned,whileMETA,TSLAandGOOGLarethemostover-owned

AverageActivePortfolioWeightingvs.S&P500Weighting

AMZNMETAGOOGLAAPLMSFTNVDATSLA

2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%

0.25%

i0.15%

0.03%

-0.5%

-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%-3.0%

-0.98%

-1.26%

-1.46%

-2.34%

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23

Source:Basedon13-Ffilingsfortheperiodfrom1Q09to1Q24.Googlehistoricaltimeperiodbeginsin1Q14andreflectsonlyGOOGLshareclass,whichhasadirectionallysimilardynamicasGOOG.Source:Factset,MorganStanleyResearch.

Alphabet(OW,$205PT):GOOGLnowtradesinlineto8%below5yearaverageFY2P/E,P/FCFandEV/EBITDAmultiplesbutstill42-57%aboveitstroughmultipleswhichwerehitduringlate2022/early2023.Currentmultiplesarealso40%+abovetroughmultiplesreachedduringlate2022/early2023atatimeofbothmacro

pressureandmicro-levelconcerns(seeExhibit5).WhileGOOGL'smultiplehaslessdownsidethanMETAinaslowingmacroenvironment,certainGOOGL-specific

uncertainties(durabilityofgrowth,GenAIsearchincrementality,searchdisruption)arelikelytoweighonthemultiple.ThisisparticularlytruenowthatGOOGLhaslosttheDoJcase,whichwewouldexpecttocauseinvestorstoquestionwhetherChatGPT(orothers)couldbelargerriskstoGOOGL'slong-termpositioninthe

Appleecosystem.

Exhibit10:GOOGLnowtradesbelowits5yearaverageFY2P/Ebutstillaboveits25thpercentilemultiple.WhileGOOGL'smultiplehaslessdownsidethanMETAinaslowingmacroenvironment,certainGOOGL-specificuncertainties(durabilityofgrowth,GenAIsearchincrementality,searchdisruption)arelikelytoweighonthemultiple.

GOOGLFY2P/E-Last5Years

30.0x

25.0x

20.0x

15.0x

10.0x

CombinationofMacropresureandMicro

concerns(i.e.Searchshareloss,incrementality

5.0xofAISearchrevenue,investmentrequiredto

buildAISearch)

0.0x

一FY2P/E25thPercentile50thPercentile75thPercentile

Source:CompanyData,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

MorganStanleyResearch5

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

6

Amazon(OW,$210PT):AMZNcurrentlytradesboth~24-37%belowits5year

averageFY2P/E,P/FCFandEV/EBITDAmultiplesandalsotradingclosertoits

troughmultipleonbothP/EandP/FCFthananyotheroftheMag-7.WhileAMZN'smultipleislowvshistory,wethinkhistoryislessapplicableheregivenitsslower

growthandhighercapitalintensity.Inourview,AMZN-specificestimateachievability

(andhelpingthemarketfeelmoreconfidentintheslopeofretailgrowthprofitabilitytocome)willbeimportanttore-ratingithigher.

Exhibit11:WhileAMZN'smultipleislowvshistorywethinkhistoryisless

applicableheregivenitsslowergrowthandhighercapitalintensity.Inourview,

AMZN-specificestimateachievability(andhelpingthemarketfeelmoreconfidentintheslopeofretailgrowthprofitabilitytocome)willbeimportanttore-ratingithigher.

AMZNFY2P/E-Last5Years

70.0x

60.0x

50.0x

40.0x

30.0x

20.0x

10.0x

0.0x

FY2P/E25thPercentile50thPercentile75thPercentile

Source:CompanyData,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Apple(OW,$273PT):Applesharesaredown6%MTDandup9%YTD,reflectingthecombinationofseveralfactors,butmostnotably:1)aweakerstarttotheyearfollowedbystrongperformancesinceF2Qearningsinlate-MayasinvestorslooktowardstheupcomingAppleIntelligencelaunchasakeycatalystforacceleratingreplacementcycles,and2)yesterday'sDOJrulingagainstGOOGL(seeourlatesttakehere),whichhasbroader,butstillrelativelyuncertain,implicationsforApple'sGOOGLTACbusiness,akeyServicesgrowthandmargindriver.

Onavaluationbasis,Applecurrentlytradesat28xFY25EPSand25xFY26EPS,

withthelatterapproximatelyin-linewiththetrailing5yearaverage.ComparedtotherestoftheMag7,Applegenerallyscreensasthemost"expensive"stockvs.

trailing5yearvaluations(absoluteandPEG),trading17%aboveitstrailing5yearaverage(of24.5x),nearly100%aboveitstrailing5yeartrough(of14.7x;March

2020),andjust18%belowitstrailing5yearpeak(of34.8x;August2020).Asa

result,we'darguethatforAppletooutperformoverthenext12months,we'dneedtoseethepaceofpositiveearningsrevisionsaccelerate-akeypartofourOW/TopPickthesis,whereweare7%aboveConsensusFY26EPS.

Finally,we'dhighlightthatourcurrent$173bearcasevaluation(5%abovethe

trailing52weeklow)impliesa~24xmultipleonourFY26bearcaseEPSof$7.10.Forcontext,a24xP/Eis0.5xturnbelowApple'sT5Yaverageandslightlyabove

whereshareshavetroughedoverthelast18months,butissupportedbyagrowth-adjustedregressionvs.high-retentionconsumerandtechnologyplatformpeers.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

Exhibit12:At24xFY26P/E(but28xFY25P/E)AAPListradingata0.5xturn

discounttoitstrailing5yearaverage,thoughonFY25EPS,valuationiscloserto1standarddeviationaboveitstrailing5yearaverage.

AppleP/ENextFiscalYearvs.History

36.0x

Bull:35.5x

+2SD:32.2x

32.0x

Base:31x

+1SD:28.4x

28.0x

Current:28.3x

T5YAvg:24.5x

24.0x

Bear:24.4x

-1SD:20.7x

20.0x

16.0x

-2SD:16.9x

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

12.0x

Oct-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Oct-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Oct-23

Feb-24

Apr-24

Jun-24

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

MetaPlatforms(OW,$575PT):METAstilltrades4%-13%aboveits5yearaverageacrossFY2P/E,P/FCFandEV/EBITDA.Currentmultiplesareevenhighervslong-

termtroughsduringlate2022/early2023whenmultiplestroughedduetomicro-levelconcerns.Whileafurtherweakeningoftheconsumercouldleadtomore

multiplecompressionforMETA,wethinkMETAisbestpositionedamongitsmegacapinternetpeerstosustainitsmultiplethroughthisperiodofuncertaintygiven

METAcontinuestoseethemosttangible/incrementalROICfromAIadvancesacrossourmegacapcompanieswithaunifiedvideorecommendationandrankingsystemdrivinghigherengagementandmonetizeabletimeontheplatform.Theresultis

toplinegrowththatisacceleratingona2-yearstackbasis,withthetopendof3Qguideimplying+22%growthona2-yearCAGRyearbasis,upfrom16%in2Q.Wethinkit'sunlikelythatMETAre-approachesthetroughmultipleithitduringlate

2022/early2023whichwasdrivenbyacombinationofmacropressureandmicrofearsaroundscalingmetaversespend,TikTokcompetitiveconcernsandY/Ytoplinedeclines.

MorganStanleyResearch7

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

8

Exhibit13:METAtradesabovebothitsaverageand25thpercentilemultipleona

trailing5yearbasis,despitethiswethinkMETAhasthegreatestmultiple

durabilitygivenitsdurablerevenuegrowthandthinkitsunlikelyMETAtradesatpriortroughlevels

METAFY2P/E-Last5Years

30.0x

25.0x

20.0x

15.0x

10.0x

5.0xCombinationofMacropressureandMicro

concerns(i.e.Metaversespend,TikTokcompetitiveconcerns,toplinedeclines).

0.0x

一FY2P/E25thPercentile50thPercentile75thPercentile

Source:CompanyData,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Microsoft(OW,$506PT):MSFTtradesata-6%discountandabouthalfa

standarddeviationbelowits5-yearaverageonaFY2P/Ebasis,after

underperformingtheS&P500/NASDAQbynearly400bpsyear-to-date.Whilethestockremainsaboveabsolutetroughmultiplelevelsat~21xFY2P/Elevelsand

reflectedinourbearcaseat$296pershare(basedon21.5XFY2P/E,twostandarddeviationsbelowthe5-yearaverage),wedonotexpectthestocktorevisitthese

levelsgivenseveralfactors.Ratherwebelievethecurrentbelow-averagevaluation,relativeunderperformance,andMSFT'spositioningasthemostunder-ownedstockamongtheMag7bodewellforthestockonagoforwardbasis.Weestimatethat

C3Q24markstroughearningsgrowthforMicrosoftbeforegrowthreaccelerates,

furtherpointingtoaninterestingentrypointfromanidiosyncraticperspective.

Longerterm,wecontinuetohavehighconfidenceinthecompany'sabilitytosustainadurablehigh-teensEPSCAGR(seeMicrosoft:AssessingtheOpportunity—EPStoDoubleto$24byFY29),givenMicrosoft'sstrongpositioningforcoresecular

growthtrendsasthetopsharegainerinCloudandGenAI.

Morganstanley

RESEARCH

Idea

Exhibit14:At26xFY26P/E,MSFTistradingata~1.5xturndiscounttoits

trailing5yearaverage,whileourbearcasealignstothehistoricaltroughmultiplesat~21xFY2P/Eortwostandarddeviationslower.

MicrosoftP/ENextFiscalYearvs.History

39.0x

Bull:36.5x

35.0x+2SD:34.0x

Base:33x

31.0x+1SD:30.7xT5YAvg:27.4x

27.0x

-1SD:24.1x

Current:25.7x

23.0x

-2SD:20.8xBear:21.5x

19.0x

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

Dec-…

Aug-…

15.0x

Oct-19

Feb-20

Apr-20

Jun-20

Oct-20

Feb-21

Apr-21

Jun-21

Oct-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Oct-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Oct-23

Feb-24

Apr-24

Jun-24

Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearch

Nvidia(OW,$144PT):Nowdownabou