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TABLEOFCONTENTSINTRODUCTION 91.DEFINITIONOFINFLATION 102.HISTORYOFINFLATION 103.MODERNDAYMEANINGOFINFLATION 104.CONSUMERPRICEINDEX 115.INFLATIONRATE 126.CAUSESOFINFLATION 147.EFFECTSOFINFLATION 158.CONTROLLINGINFLATION 15CONCLUSION 16REFERENCES 20INTRODUCTIONThepurposeofthisprojectistoclearlydefineINFLATION,identifyitscausesandeffectsandthewaysofeffectivelycontrollingit.Thisassignmentisdesignedtoprovideclearunderstandingofwhatinflationis.Furthertheessaywilloutlinethecausesandeffectsofinflationintheeconomyasawholeandwillidentifymeasuresonhowthegovernmentcaninfluenceandeffectivecontrolinflationtotheadvantageofthestateeconomy.1.DEFINITIONOFINFLATIONInEconomics,Inflationisariseinthegenerallevelofpricesofgoodsandservicesineconomyoveraperiodoftime.(MichaelBurdaandCharlesWyplosz(1997),Macroeconomics:AEuropeantext,2nded.,p.579(Glossary)2.HISTORYOFINFLATIONTheoriginofInflationdatesbacktothetimewhengoldwasusedasthepurchasingmediumintradinggoods.Itisatermwhichwasreferredtoaconditionofcurrency.Itwasoriginallyreferredtoasthedevaluationofthecurrency.Thebestexampletoshowthisdevaluationiswhenarulerorakingcollectsgoldfromhispeopleandsubsequentlymeltthesedownthenmixitwithothersemi-preciousmetalssuchassilver,copperorleadtoincreasethecoinsincirculationwithouttheneedtoincreasetheamountofgoldtoproducethem.Andwhentherulerorkingadoptsthispractice,thesupplyofcoinsincirculationwouldincreasebutwillultimatelydecreasethevalueofthecoin.Oncethevalueofthecoindeclines,itwouldincreasethenumberofcoinsrequiredtoexchangeforgoodsorservices.ApplyingthebasicconceptoftheLawofSupplyandDemandinEconomics,thiswouldmeanthatasthevalueofacoindecreasesduetoageneroussupplyincirculation,thereisaproportionateincreaseinthenumberofcoinsrequiredinexchangeofgoodsorservicesAndalthoughthiswillincreasethemoneysupply,thevalueofthecoinisdecreased.Whentherelativevalueofthecoindecrease,theconsumerswouldrequiremorecoinstopurchaseandwouldexperienceapriceincreasewiththedeclineofthecoin’svalue.3.MODERNDAYMEANINGOFINFLATIONFormanyyearsinflationwasnotrelatedtopricebutratheraconditionofcurrencyasdescribedabove.Overtheyearsandwithmanyargumentsamongsteconomists,whatwasoncedescribedasamonetarycausenowisbeingdescribedasapriceoutcome.(MichaelF.Bryan,1997,OntheOriginandEvolution)Inthemodernday,weheardifferenttypesofinflation.Itisawordoftenusedsynonymouslywithpriceincrease.Intoday’seconomy,Inflationisdefinedasthesustainedriseoftheaveragepricelevelofacountryoveraperiodoftime.(/wiki/IB_Economics/Macroeconomics)4.CONSUMERPRICEINDEXTherateofinflationismeasuredbytheannualpercentageinthelevelofpricesasmeasuredbytheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI).(RobertHallandJohnTaylor(1986),Macroeconomics:Theory,Performance,andPolicy,page5.TheConsumerPriceIndexmeasurespricesofaselectionofgoodsorservicespurchasedbyatypicalcustomer.TheConsumerPriceIndexaimstomeasurehowconsumers’purchasingpowerisaffectedbyrisingprices.(Blanchardetal,1993,2000,2002)Itmeasurestheprocessofaselectionofgoodsandservicespurchasedbyatypicalconsumer.(Mankiw2002,p.

22-32)Householdexpendituresurveysareperformedwhichseekstomeasurewhatpeoplespendtheirmoneyontogetatypicalbasketofgoods.Thisbasketofgoodsisupdatedeachyeartotakeintoconsiderationchangesinexpenditure.Thebasketofgoodsgivesrelativeimportancetoeachdifferentitemandchangesinthepricesofgoodsorservicesmonthlyaremonitoredandcombinedintoasinglefigurewithusingweightsinthebasket.ThebelowisthetypicalbasketofgoodsandservicesforUKconsumers:(ConsumerPricesIndexandRetailPriceIndex:the2008BasketofGoodsandServices,NationalStatisticsOffice,2008)5.INFLATIONRATETheInflationrateisthepercentagerateofchangeofapriceindexovertime.(/wiki/Inflation_rate)ItiscalculatedusingtheInflationrateformula:

CPICurrent-CPIPrevious=CurrentInflationRate

CPIPrevious

CPIApril–September2008(FirstRelease:ConsumerPricesIndices,September2008p.1,NationalStatisticsOffice)ApplyingtheformulaofcalculatingtheInflationrateusingactualdatafromtheNationalStatisticsOffice,theresultinginflationrateoverthe3monthperiodfromApriltoJune2008is1%whichmeansthatthegenerallevelofpricesfortypicalUKconsumersroseapproximatelyby1%overathree-monthperiod.Andoverasix-monthperiod,ApriltoSeptember2008,Inflationratewasat2.51%whichis151%increasefromtheInflationratecalculatedinJune2008.ApriltoJune2008109.00-107.60=1.00%

107.60

ApriltoSeptember2008110.30-107.60=2.51%

107.60

Ingeneral,highorunpredictableinflationratesareharmfultotheeconomyasawhole.Theymakeitdifficultforcompaniestodevelopbudgetsandlong-termplansandthiscontributeinefficienciesinthemarket.Afterseveralandseriousdebatesthateconomistshadovertheperiodofyears,thereisanunderlyingagreementthatinthelongrunInflationisessentiallyamonetaryphenomenon.Incontrast,intheshorttermandmedium,itwillbeaffectedbythesupplyanddemandintheeconomy,takingintoconsiderationtheelasticityofwages,pricesandinterestrates.(FederalReserveBoard'ssemiannualMonetaryPolicyReporttotheCongressRoundtableIntroductorystatementbyJean-ClaudeTrichetonJuly1,2004)Themeasuredinflationrateatanypointintimewillbemadeupofanarrayofindividualpricechanges.Buttheamountofinflationintheeconomyisaboutmorethanjustthesumofallindividualpricechanges.Somethingmorefundamentaldeterminestheamountofinflationintheeconomy-whetheritis1%,10or100%.(http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/targettwopointzero/inflation/whatCausesInflation.html)6.CAUSESOFINFLATIONOneofthemostevidentunderlyingcausesoftheriseofinflationisgoingbacktothefundamentallawofeconomicswhichistheLawofsupplyanddemand.Whendemandincreaseabovewhatcompaniescanproduceatanormalleveltherewillbeanupwardspulloncostsandprices.Sotoproducemore,thecompaniesincreasetheirdemandforresourceswhichmayresultintheriseofproductioncostsandprices.Economistsgenerallyagreethathighratesofinflationandhyperinflationarecausedbyanexcessivegrowthofthemoneysupply.RobertBarroandVittorioGrilli(1994),EuropeanMacroeconomics,Ch.8,p.139,Fig.8.1)Viewsonwhichfactorsdeterminemoderateratesofinflationaremorevaried.Lowormoderateinflationmaybeattributedtofluctuationsinrealdemandforgoodsandservices,orchangesinavailablesuppliessuchasduringscarcities,aswellastogrowthinthemoneysupply.Theconsensusviewisthatasustainedperiodofinflationiscausedwhenmoneysupplyincreasesfasterthanthegrowthinproductivityintheeconomy.(Mankiw2002,pp.

81-107Abel&Bernanke2005,pp.

266-269)However,theultimatecauseofinflationcanbesaidtobethecentralbankswhichpermitsanincreaseinthemonetarysupply.(LudwigvonMises,TheTheoryofMoneyandCredit).Thebehaviorandactionofthecentralbanksdeterminewhetherinflationisallowedtoriseortobekeptlow.Inotherwords,whethertheyallowpricetoriseuncheckedbymonetarypolicy,orwhethercentralbanksseekstoinfluencetheamountofmoneyintheeconomybychangingtheinterestrates.(BankofEngland,2000-2009)7.EFFECTSOFINFLATIONAsInflationiscausedbyseveraldifferentfactors,italsohasiteffects.Inflationcontradictstheassumptionthatmoneyhasafixedrateandthatitisstable,thisdefeatstheconceptofhistoricalvalueasbasisofatraditionalaccounting.(Massone,1981a.p.6)Risinginflationaffectsthesalarydemandsofemployeeandpromptsforhighersalarieswiththeeffectoffuelinginflation.Andwithpricesofcommoditiesexpectedtoriseasaresultofinflation,peopletendtohoardtogetridofexcessmoniesbeforeitgetsdevaluedandcanbuylessergoods.Hoardingcreatesshortageinsupplywhichcausestheincreaseinthepricesofcommodityasdemandforthemincreasewiththeirscarcity.Thetaskofkeepingtherateofinflationlowisusuallygiventomonetaryauthoritieswhoestablishmonetarypolicy.Generallytodaythesemonetaryauthoritiesarethecentralbanksthatcontrolthesizeofthemoneysupplythroughthesettingofinterestrates,throughopenmarketoperations,andthroughthesettingofbankingreserverequirements.(BankofEngland,MonetaryPolicyFramework,2006)Anincreaseinthegenerallevelofpricesimpliesadecreaseinthepurchasingpowerofthecurrency.Thatis,whenthegenerallevelofpricesrises,eachmonetaryunitbuysfewergoodsandservices.(Bulkley,George(31981),"PersonalSavingsandAnticipatedInflation".TheEconomicJournal91(361):pp.124-135,/pss/2231702.Retrievedon18November2008)Theeffectofinflationisnotdistributedevenly,andasaconsequencetherearehiddencoststosomeandbenefitstoothersfromthisdecreaseinpurchasingpower.Forexample,withinflationlendersordepositorswhoarepaidafixedrateofinterestonloansordepositswilllosepurchasingpowerfromtheirinterestearnings,whiletheirborrowersbenefit.Individualsorinstitutionswithcashassetswillexperienceadeclineinthepurchasingpoweroftheirholdings.Increasesinpaymentstoworkersandpensionersoftenlagbehindinflation,especiallyforthosewithfixedpayments.(Taylor,Timothy,2008,PrinciplesofEconomics)Therealpurchasing-poweroffixedpaymentsiserodedbyinflationunlesstheyareinflation-adjustedtokeeptheirrealvaluesconstant.Inmanycountries,employmentcontracts,pensionbenefits,andgovernmententitlements(suchassocialsecurity)aretiedtoacost-of-livingindex,typicallytotheconsumerpriceindex.(Flanagan,Tammy,2006).Acost-of-livingallowance(COLA)adjustssalariesbasedonchangesinacost-of-livingindex.Salariesaretypicallyadjustedannually.(COLAWars".GovernmentExecutive.NationalJournalGroup)Theymayalsobetiedtoacost-of-livingindexthatvariesbygeographiclocationiftheemployeemoves.Annualescalationclausesinemploymentcontractscanspecifyretroactiveorfuturepercentageincreasesinworkerpaywhicharenottiedtoanyindex.Thesenegotiatedincreasesinpayarecolloquiallyreferredtoascost-of-livingadjustmentsorcost-of-livingincreasesbecauseoftheirsimilaritytoincreasestiedtoexternally-determinedindexes.Mosteconomistsandcompensationanalystswouldconsidertheideaofpredeterminedfuture"costoflivingincreases"tobemisleadingfortworeasons:(1)Formostrecentperiodsintheindustrializedworld,averagewageshaveincreasedfasterthanmostcalculatedcost-of-livingindexes,reflectingtheinfluenceofrisingproductivityandworkerbargainingpowerratherthansimplylivingcosts,and(2)mostcost-of-livingindexesarenotforward-looking,butinsteadcomparecurrentorhistoricaldata.Ingeneralwageandpricecontrolsareregardedasatemporaryandexceptionalmeasure,onlyeffectivewhencoupledwithpoliciesdesignedtoreducetheunderlyingcausesofinflationduringthewageandpricecontrolregime,forexample,winningthewarbeingfought.Theyoftenhaveperverseeffects,duetothedistortedsignalstheysendtothemarket.Artificiallylowpricesoftencauserationingandshortagesanddiscouragefutureinvestment,resultinginyetfurthershortages.Theusualeconomicanalysisisthatanyproductorservicethatisunder-pricedisoverconsumed.Forexample,iftheofficialpriceofbreadistoolow,therewillbetoolittlebreadatofficialprices,andtoolittleinvestmentinbreadmakingbythemarkettosatisfyfutureneeds,therebyexacerbatingtheprobleminthelongterm.8.CONTROLLINGINFLATIONAsInflationaffectstheeconomyasawholeandthattheultimatecauseofinflationarethecentralbanksandthemeasurestheyapply,theyarealsotheagencywhocanultimatelycontrolinflation.Thetaskofkeepingtherateofinflationlowisusuallygiventomonetaryauthoritieswhoestablishmonetarypolicy.Generallytodaythesemonetaryauthoritiesarethecentralbanksthatcontrolthesizeofthemoneysupplythroughthesettingofinterestrates,throughopenmarketoperations,andthroughthesettingofbankingreserverequirements.(Taylor,Timothy,PrinciplesofEconomics,2008)Monetarypolicyistheprocessbywhichthegovernment,centralbank,ormonetaryauthorityofacountrycontrols(i)thesupplyofmoney,(ii)availabilityofmoney,and(iii)costofmoneyorrateofinterest,inordertoattainasetofobjectivesorientedtowardsthegrowthandstabilityoftheeconomy(MonetaryPolicy,FederalReserveBoard,January3,2006)Monetarytheoryprovidesinsightintohowtocraftoptimalmonetarypolicy.Monetarypolicyisreferredtoaseitherbeinganexpansionarypolicy,oracontractionarypolicy,whereanexpansionarypolicyincreasesthetotalsupplyofmoneyintheeconomy,andaconcretionarypolicydecreasesthetotalmoneysupply.Expansionarypolicyistraditionallyusedtocombatunemploymentinarecessionbyloweringinterestrates,whileconcretionarypolicyinvolvesraisinginterestratesinordertocombatinflation.Monetarypolicyshouldbecontrastedwithfiscalpolicy,whichreferstogovernmentborrowing,spendingandtaxation.(B.M.Friedman"MonetaryPolicy,"InternationalEncyclopediaoftheSocial&BehavioralSciences,2001,pp.9976-9984)TheBankofEngland,beingthecentralbankoftheUnitedKingdommustformulateandimplementamonetarypolicyintheareasofmoney,bankingandcreditwiththemainaimofmaintainingpricesconducivetobalancedandstableeconomicgrowth.Inaddition,itmustpromoteandpreservemonetarystability.Thecentralbankinfluencesinterestratesbyexpandingorcontractingthemonetarybase,whichconsistsofcurrencyincirculationandbanks'reservesondepositatthecentralbank.Theprimarywaythatthecentralbankcanaffectthemonetarybaseisbyopenmarketoperationsorsalesandpurchasesofsecondhandgovernmentdebt,orbychangingthereserverequirements.Ifthecentralbankwishestolowerinterestrates,itpurchasesgovernmentdebt,therebyincreasingtheamountofcashincirculationorcreditingbanks'reserveaccounts.Alternatively,itcanlowertheinterestrateondiscountsoroverdrafts(loanstobankssecuredbysuitablecollateral,specifiedbythecentralbank).Iftheinterestrateonsuchtransactionsissufficientlylow,commercialbankscanborrowfromthecentralbanktomeetreserverequirementsandusetheadditionalliquiditytoexpandtheirbalancesheets,increasingthecreditavailabletotheeconomy.Loweringreserverequirementshasasimilareffect,freeingupfundsforbankstoincreaseloansorbuyotherprofitableassets.(/wiki/Monetary_policy)Acentralbankcanonlyoperateatrulyindependentmonetarypolicywhentheexchangerateisfloating.(ExchangeRates,TheLibraryofEconomicsandLibertyMarch31,2006)Iftheexchangerateispeggedormanagedinanyway,thecentralbankwillhavetopurchaseorsellforeignexchange.Thesetransactionsinforeignexchangewillhaveaneffectonthemonetarybaseanalogoustoopenmarketpurchasesandsalesofgovernmentdebt;ifthecentralbankbuysforeignexchange,themonetarybaseexpands,andviceversa.Buteveninthecaseofapurefloatingexchangerate,centralbanksandmonetaryauthoritiescanatbest"leanagainstthewind"inaworldwherecapitalismobile.Accordingly,themanagementoftheexchangeratewillinfluencedomesticmonetaryconditions.Inordertomaintainitsmonetarypolicytarget,thecentralbankwillhavetosterilizeoroffsetitsforeignexchangeoperations.Forexample,ifacentralbankbuysforeignexchange(tocounteractappreciationoftheexchangerate),basemoneywillincrease.Therefore,tosterilizethatincrease,thecentralbankmustalsosellgovernmentdebttocontractthemonetarybasebyanequalamount.Itfollowsthatturbulentactivityinforeignexchangemarketscancauseacentralbanktolosecontrolofdomesticmonetarypolicywhenitisalsomanagingtheexchangerate.Inthe1980s,manyeconomistsbegantobelievethatmakinganation'scentralbankindependentoftherestofexecutivegovernmentisthebestwaytoensureanoptimalmonetarypolicy,andthosecentralbankswhichdidnothaveindependencebegantogainit.Thisistoavoidovertmanipulationofthetoolsofmonetarypoliciestoeffectpoliticalgoals,suchasre-electingthecurrentgovernment.Independencetypicallymeansthatthemembersofthecommitteewhichconductsmonetarypolicyhavelong,fixedterms.Obviously,thisisasomewhatlimitedindependence.Inthe1990s,centralbanksbeganadoptingformal,publicinflationtargetswiththegoalofmakingtheoutcomes,ifnottheprocess,ofmonetarypolicymoretransparent.Inotherwords,acentralbankmayhaveaninflationtargetof2%foragivenyear,andifinflationturnsouttobe5%,thenthecentralbankwilltypicallyhavetosubmitanexplanation.TheBankofEnglandexemplifiesboththesetrends.ItbecameindependentofgovernmentthroughtheBankofEnglandAct1998andadoptedaninflationtargetof2.5%RPI(now2%ofCPI).Giventhecloseassociationbetweeninflationandoutputgrowth,theMonetaryPolicyCommitteeoftheBankofEnglandshouldformulateanypolicywhichincreasesoutputwhichwouldlikelyhaveafavorableimpactoninflation;inaddition,loweringofinterestrateswhichleadstoincreaseingrowthislikelytoleadadeclineintheratesofinflation.CONCLUSIONThedefinitionofinflationhasevolvedovertheyears,frombeingreferredtoasaconditionofcurrencyandmoney;itisnowusedtodescribethebehaviorofpricesinone’seconomy.Aseconomistsdebateoveritsmeaningandthemethodsbywhichtoquantifyandmeasureit,itremainstruethatInflationismostsignificantlyrelatedtodemandandsupply.Thatasdemandforacommodityorservicesinscarcityincreases,therewillbeaproportionateincreaseinthepricesinthepurchaseofthegoodsorservices.Therefore,toprotecttheeconomyfromsuddenshiftofpricesduetoseveralfactorstheremustbeatoolineffectivelycontrollinginflation.ThecentralbanksliketheBankofEnglandastheultimatecauseofinflationmustdevelopasoundmonetarypolicythatwouldbothcontrolaparticularpriceandinterestratestoeffectivelycontrolinflation.Todaytheprimarytoolforcontrollinginflationismonetarypolicy.Mostcentralbanksaretaskedwithkeepinginflationatalowlevel;normallytoatargetratearound2%to3%perannum,andwithinatargetedlowinflationrange,somewherefromabout2%to6%perannum.Whenweviewinflationinthisperceptive,itwouldbethezero-inflationobjectiveforthecentralbankwhichwillbecomeamoresensiblegoal.REFERENCESAbel&Bernanke2005,pp.

266-269Barro(1993),op.citBankofEngland,2000-2009BankofEngland,MonetaryPolicyFramework,2006Blanchard(2000),op.citBulkley,George(31981).PersonalSavingsandAnticipatedInflation.TheEconomicJournal91(361):pp.124-135FederalReserveBoard,MonetaryPolicy,January3,2006http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/targettwopointzero/inflation/whatCausesInflation.htmlJean-ClaudeTrichet,‘FederalReserveBoard'ssemiannualMonetaryPolicyReporttotheCongressRoundtableIntroductorystatement,’July1,2004LudwigvonMises,TheTheoryofMoneyandCredit,ISBN0-913966-70-3Seealso:JesusHuertadeSoto,"Money,BankCredit,andEconomicCycles",ISBN0-945466-39-4MichaelBurdaandCharlesWyplosz(1997),Macroeconomics:AEuropeantext,2nded.,p.579NationalJournalGroup,COLAWars,GovernmentExecutive.Retrievedon21November2008NationalStatisticsOffice,‘ConsumerPricesIndexandRetailPriceIndex:the2008BasketofGoodsandServices,’2008NationalStatisticsOffice,‘FirstRelease:ConsumerPricesIndices,‘September2008p.1PersonalSavingsandAnticipatedInflation.TheEconomicJournal91(361):pp.124-135RobertHallandJohnTaylor(1986),Macroeconomics:Theory,Performance,andPolicy,page5.ISBN039395398XRobertBarroandVittorioGrilli(1994),EuropeanMacroeconomics,Ch.Taylor,Timothy,2008,PrinciplesofEconomics,FreeloadPress,ISBN193078905TheLibraryofEconomicsandLiberty,ExchangeRates,March31,2006消費(fèi)習(xí)慣對(duì)于消費(fèi)行為的影響分析摘要:最近10年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展，而且1996年至1999年，為了刺激消費(fèi)，央行連連降息，但是通過對(duì)居民消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)，證明消費(fèi)存在過度平滑特性，由此可見，消費(fèi)對(duì)于收入增長(zhǎng)、利率下降的刺激，反應(yīng)并不敏感。如何解釋？本文從習(xí)慣形成理論出發(fā)，在理論與實(shí)證兩方面探討了消費(fèi)習(xí)慣對(duì)消費(fèi)行為的影響。在理論方面，從習(xí)慣形成出發(fā)對(duì)持久收入消費(fèi)函數(shù)進(jìn)行修正，通過對(duì)修正后的函數(shù)形式平滑特性的分析，認(rèn)為消費(fèi)中的習(xí)慣形成，減少消費(fèi)變化的波動(dòng)性，使得消費(fèi)函數(shù)更加平滑。在實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)方面，通過對(duì)最近10年不同收入等級(jí)的城鎮(zhèn)居民食品消費(fèi)的面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證分析，印證了習(xí)慣形成消費(fèi)函數(shù)的理論模型。以此為基礎(chǔ)，可以對(duì)中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)的平滑特性做出解釋：消費(fèi)習(xí)慣對(duì)消費(fèi)行為的影響，使得消費(fèi)者不會(huì)對(duì)收入增長(zhǎng)、利率下調(diào)等外部因素的刺激做出即時(shí)的、充分的反應(yīng)，而是傾向于在較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間內(nèi)，以較小的幅度逐漸地對(duì)消費(fèi)支出進(jìn)行調(diào)整。關(guān)鍵詞：平滑特性；習(xí)慣形成；持久收入；面板數(shù)據(jù)目錄序言···································································································23一、習(xí)慣形成里問見解以與相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述·········································24二、居民消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)平滑性的證實(shí)分析················································25三、·消費(fèi)習(xí)慣對(duì)居民消費(fèi)行為的影響分析·······································26四、結(jié)論·····························································································33參考文獻(xiàn)·······················································································34附錄······························································································35序言最近10年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)非常迅速，人均GNP的平均增長(zhǎng)率為8.47%。但是居民消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)卻相對(duì)平穩(wěn)，平均增長(zhǎng)率為7.26%。而且為了刺激消費(fèi)，拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需，從1996年5月以來，中國(guó)人民銀行在3年之內(nèi)連續(xù)7次降息，并在1999年11月開征利息稅。雖然從理論角度而言，無論是收入增長(zhǎng)還是利率降低都應(yīng)對(duì)消費(fèi)有明顯的提升作用，但是實(shí)際上即使在收入與利率因素共同作用的情況下，居民消費(fèi)水平也沒有顯著的增加。關(guān)于這一結(jié)論，可以很直觀地從圖1中看到，相對(duì)于人均GNP而言，居民人均消費(fèi)序列較為平滑。為什么消費(fèi)沒有對(duì)收入以與利率的變化做出充分反應(yīng)，而是表現(xiàn)得如此不敏感？關(guān)于這一問題的爭(zhēng)論，一度是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)中的熱點(diǎn)，眾說紛紜。但是討論大多從外部因素著眼，強(qiáng)調(diào)收入分配、流動(dòng)性約束以與金融市場(chǎng)的不完善對(duì)消費(fèi)決策的作用。本文試圖從新的角度——消費(fèi)者的自身特征——消費(fèi)習(xí)慣的角度出發(fā)，從理論推導(dǎo)與實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)兩方面探討消費(fèi)習(xí)慣對(duì)消費(fèi)行為的影響。本文大體可以五部分。第一部分是引言。考慮到國(guó)內(nèi)在消費(fèi)習(xí)慣問題方面的相關(guān)研究比較少，所以在第二部分中首先對(duì)消費(fèi)習(xí)慣形成理論進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)單介紹，其次總結(jié)了近來國(guó)外在這方面研究的相關(guān)成果。在第三部分對(duì)中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)的平滑特征進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。第四部分首先是進(jìn)行理論分析，引入習(xí)慣因素，對(duì)持久收入的消費(fèi)函數(shù)進(jìn)行修正，并在此基礎(chǔ)上將修正之后的結(jié)果與經(jīng)典的理論形式進(jìn)行比較，分析消費(fèi)函數(shù)的平滑特性。接著在城鎮(zhèn)居民食品消費(fèi)的面板數(shù)據(jù)中對(duì)添加習(xí)慣因素的消費(fèi)函數(shù)形式進(jìn)行實(shí)一.習(xí)慣形成理論簡(jiǎn)介以與相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述1.習(xí)慣形成理論簡(jiǎn)介1989年Campbell與Deaton在一篇著名的研究論文中對(duì)美國(guó)的季度消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行研究之后指出，根據(jù)持久收入理論，消費(fèi)者會(huì)根據(jù)他所期望的今后一生中的收入，而不僅僅是當(dāng)前的收入決定消費(fèi)水平，因此持久收入相對(duì)于當(dāng)期收入而言，具有平滑消費(fèi)的作用。但是即使如此，相對(duì)于持久收入理論的預(yù)期而言，實(shí)際的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)于收入沖擊的反應(yīng)表現(xiàn)得更加平滑，他們將其稱之為過度平滑（excesssmoothness）特性。習(xí)慣形成理論的發(fā)展是基于對(duì)消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)中的過度平滑特性的探討。消費(fèi)習(xí)慣形成理論與經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論的區(qū)別在于偏好的時(shí)間不可分性（time—nonseparablity）。在經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論中，偏好是時(shí)間可分的（time-separable）,也就是當(dāng)期的效用水平僅由當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)水平?jīng)Q定；而習(xí)慣形成理論則認(rèn)為偏好是時(shí)間可分的（time-nonseparable）,也就是當(dāng)期的效用水平不僅依賴當(dāng)前的消費(fèi)支出狀況，而且與此前的支出水平（滯后消費(fèi)）相關(guān)。之所以對(duì)效用假設(shè)進(jìn)行如此變動(dòng)是因?yàn)椋盒睦韺W(xué)對(duì)人類行為的研究認(rèn)為，持久的舒適會(huì)產(chǎn)生厭倦，但是刺激卻可以消除厭倦。與此對(duì)應(yīng)，消費(fèi)者會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)水平的長(zhǎng)久不變感到厭煩，；但是消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)卻可以帶來與愉悅，因而增加滿足感（參見Scitovsky等人，2004）。所以對(duì)于消費(fèi)行為而言，存在一種追求消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的偏好，將這樣的行為傾向可以看作是個(gè)體的決策習(xí)慣，這就是習(xí)慣形成理論的出發(fā)點(diǎn)。如何將這種變化進(jìn)行模型化處理？習(xí)慣形成理論引入有效消費(fèi)（effectiveconsumption）的概念。與經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論的區(qū)別在于：經(jīng)典消費(fèi)理論中是當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)水平?jīng)Q定當(dāng)期的效用水平；而習(xí)慣形成理論中當(dāng)期的效用水平取決于有效消費(fèi)，就是利用滯后消費(fèi)對(duì)當(dāng)期消費(fèi)進(jìn)行調(diào)整。對(duì)于有效消費(fèi)的定義有兩種常見的形式：和（參見Wendner，2003）。在習(xí)慣形成理論的研究中，對(duì)于這兩者通常并不進(jìn)行嚴(yán)格的區(qū)分，而是根據(jù)研究的需要，選取一種有效消費(fèi)的定義形式，與特定形式的效用函數(shù)結(jié)合，對(duì)問題進(jìn)行分析。2、習(xí)慣形成理論的文獻(xiàn)綜述（1）國(guó)外文獻(xiàn)綜述習(xí)慣形成的純理論研究大致集中在以下兩方面：一是探討習(xí)慣強(qiáng)度與消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)、儲(chǔ)蓄之間的關(guān)系（參見Smith,2002；Wendner,2003；Alessie與Lusardi，1997）；二是在習(xí)慣形成模型中討論貨幣政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)問題（參見Fuhrer，2000；Carroll等人，2000）。習(xí)慣形成的實(shí)證研究一直存在較大爭(zhēng)議。Heaton（1993）對(duì)美國(guó)月度的總量消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)（aggregateconsumptiondata）的檢驗(yàn)認(rèn)為習(xí)慣形成的特征不明顯，Dynan（2000）應(yīng)用美國(guó)的食品消費(fèi)的面板數(shù)據(jù)（paneldata）進(jìn)行的實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)消費(fèi)中習(xí)慣的影響并不顯著。與此相反，Braun等人（1993）的檢驗(yàn)確認(rèn)了日本的總量消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)中習(xí)慣形成的存在，F(xiàn)uhrer（2000）對(duì)美國(guó)的總量數(shù)據(jù)使用VAR模型擬合，結(jié)果現(xiàn)實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)與理論模型得到較好地統(tǒng)一。究竟習(xí)慣形成模型是否顯著，消費(fèi)中習(xí)慣的強(qiáng)度如何還需進(jìn)一步深入探討。（2）國(guó)內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)綜述國(guó)內(nèi)在消費(fèi)的習(xí)慣形成方面的研究相對(duì)滯后，明確地提出“習(xí)慣形成”這一概念的相關(guān)研究成果極為少見。龍志和等人（2002）以某省會(huì)城市1999-2001的食品消費(fèi)的面板數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)消費(fèi)習(xí)慣形成模型進(jìn)行估計(jì)，認(rèn)為存在顯著的習(xí)慣形成的特征。二、居民消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)平滑特性的實(shí)證分析Campbell與Deaton(1989)對(duì)美國(guó)的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行研究之后，指出持久收入理論不足以解釋實(shí)際消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)中的平滑特性。從直觀感覺，中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)表現(xiàn)出平滑特性，對(duì)其進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，是否也會(huì)呈現(xiàn)過度平滑特征，得到和Campbell與Deaton的研究相同的結(jié)論？本文利用1952-2003年的人均GNP與居民人均消費(fèi)水平之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行過度平滑性檢驗(yàn)。由于人均收入在數(shù)據(jù)搜集上的困難，本文使用人均GNP代替人均收入水平進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。之所以這樣選擇是因?yàn)?，根?jù)1981-2003年城鎮(zhèn)人均可支配收入與農(nóng)村居民人均純收入的相應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù)與人均GNP的相關(guān)系數(shù)的計(jì)算結(jié)果認(rèn)為，人均GNP與人均收入是高度相關(guān)的。人均GNP與城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入的相關(guān)系數(shù)是0.9980，與農(nóng)村居民人均純收入的相關(guān)系數(shù)是0.9866。因此使用人均GNP代替人均收入進(jìn)行相關(guān)檢驗(yàn)。對(duì)人均GNP進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)（ADF），二階差分序列平穩(wěn)，人均GNP的自回歸移動(dòng)平均（ARMA）的估計(jì)結(jié)果如下（括號(hào)中的值是t統(tǒng)計(jì)量）：（1）（-2.81）D.W.=1.99=26.93根據(jù)Campbell與Deaton對(duì)于消費(fèi)平滑性的檢驗(yàn)，如果居民消費(fèi)行為與持久收入理論相吻合，則消費(fèi)變化應(yīng)該滿足下式（具體推導(dǎo)過程詳見附錄）：（2）對(duì)于利率，且，所以公式（2）右邊乘子的最小值是1.67，由公式（1）可以得到消費(fèi)變化的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差于收入沖擊標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差之間的關(guān)系為：，將收入沖擊的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差（）代入，可以得到消費(fèi)變化的最小標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為45.07（=1.67*26.93），但是根據(jù)居民人均消費(fèi)水平估計(jì)的消費(fèi)變化的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為20.09，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于根據(jù)持久收入理論預(yù)期最小值。因而可以得出這樣的結(jié)論：中國(guó)的居民消費(fèi)具有過度平滑的特性，因而持久收入理論不足以充分解釋消費(fèi)的平滑特性。三、消費(fèi)習(xí)慣對(duì)居民消費(fèi)行為的影響分析1、習(xí)慣形成的消費(fèi)函數(shù)模型既然持久收入理論不足以對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)的平滑特性進(jìn)行很好的解釋，那么可以考慮從習(xí)慣形成的角度對(duì)消費(fèi)的平滑特性進(jìn)行分析。本文沿用Alessie與Lusardi（1997）的分析思路，在二次型效用函數(shù)中，求解受到習(xí)慣因素影響的消費(fèi)函數(shù)的具體形式。時(shí)期有代表性的消費(fèi)者跨期動(dòng)態(tài)最優(yōu)化問題可以表述為：（3）效用函數(shù)的形式為二次型，且，。有效消費(fèi)的形式為（）。是t期的有效消費(fèi)，取決于當(dāng)期消費(fèi)與滯后一期的消費(fèi)，表示習(xí)慣的強(qiáng)度，也就是滯后期消費(fèi)對(duì)當(dāng)期消費(fèi)的影響程度。當(dāng)=0時(shí)，本期的有效消費(fèi)與滯后期消費(fèi)完全不相關(guān)，也就是經(jīng)典的消費(fèi)函數(shù)形式。隨著的增加，滯后消費(fèi)對(duì)當(dāng)期消費(fèi)的影響程度增加，增加消費(fèi)支出的傾向更加明顯，因此習(xí)慣因素在消費(fèi)函數(shù)中的作用越來越顯著。假設(shè)代表型消費(fèi)者的生命周期是無限期的，面臨的約束條件為：（4）（5）其中為t期的財(cái)富，并且與是給定的。為貼現(xiàn)率，r是利率并假定不隨時(shí)間改變。將代入約束條件中可以得到：整理后得到（6）求解跨期最優(yōu)的消費(fèi)函數(shù)形式，構(gòu)造拉格朗日方程進(jìn)行求解，則為簡(jiǎn)化形式，不妨令得到（7）因?yàn)樾в煤瘮?shù)為二次型，可以得到（常數(shù)）將其代入公式（4）中，可以得到將有效消費(fèi)的函數(shù)形式代入，化簡(jiǎn)之后可以得到（8）時(shí)，令（9）所以消費(fèi)函數(shù)的形式可以寫成：（10）為持久收入理論中消費(fèi)函數(shù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)形式。由此可以看出，對(duì)于習(xí)慣強(qiáng)度而言，當(dāng)=0時(shí)，就是持久收入理論消費(fèi)函數(shù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)形式；時(shí)，消費(fèi)可以看成是滯后消費(fèi)與持久收入中消費(fèi)函數(shù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)形式的線性組合。習(xí)慣因素對(duì)持久收入理論的修正結(jié)果，從直觀意義而言，由于消費(fèi)函數(shù)中滯后消費(fèi)的存在，當(dāng)前收入變動(dòng)時(shí)，相對(duì)于持久收入的消費(fèi)函數(shù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)形式而言，變動(dòng)幅度要小，消費(fèi)時(shí)間序列更加平滑（或者過度平滑）。下面對(duì)于受到習(xí)慣因素影響的消費(fèi)函數(shù)的平滑性進(jìn)行具體分析。2、習(xí)慣形成的消費(fèi)函數(shù)平滑特性分析對(duì)于收入沖擊，習(xí)慣形成對(duì)于持久收入理論的修正形式相對(duì)于經(jīng)典理論是否使得消費(fèi)變化更加平滑？下面將對(duì)這一問題進(jìn)行細(xì)致的分析。不妨設(shè)收入是一階自回歸序列AR（1），，。若收入受到預(yù)期之外的因素產(chǎn)生沖擊，將其單位化為1，，對(duì)于收入的意外沖擊，消費(fèi)的變化為：（11）（12）因?yàn)椋牍剑?2）可得（13）將以上結(jié)果代入公式（11）中可以得到由此可以得到消費(fèi)變化的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差與收入沖擊標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差之間的關(guān)系為：（14）由公式（14）的結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析可以得到，如果滯后消費(fèi)不會(huì)對(duì)當(dāng)期消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生影響，也就是時(shí)，，就是持久收入理論預(yù)期的針對(duì)收入波動(dòng)消費(fèi)變化的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的形式（參見Campbell與Deaton，1989）；時(shí)，因?yàn)椋韵鄬?duì)于持久收入理論中消費(fèi)變化對(duì)收入沖擊的反應(yīng)，習(xí)慣因素的存在使得消費(fèi)變化更加平滑或者過度平滑（消費(fèi)變化的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差要小于持久收入理論的預(yù)期，也就是），而且消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度越大，消費(fèi)的平滑性表現(xiàn)得越明顯（）。所以習(xí)慣因素對(duì)消費(fèi)決策的影響是，消費(fèi)者在進(jìn)行消費(fèi)跨期規(guī)劃時(shí)，傾向于適當(dāng)降低當(dāng)前消費(fèi)，為以后的增長(zhǎng)留有空間。當(dāng)前的收入增長(zhǎng)并不會(huì)立即反映到當(dāng)期的消費(fèi)中，而是會(huì)通過