2024年公募REITs投資策略分析報告：資產(chǎn)分層、量化賦能解鎖策略選擇

資產(chǎn)分層、量化賦能，多視角解鎖策略選擇2024年下半年公募REITs投資策略2024/6/14

2市場回顧：聚焦2023年以來市場變化基本面：底層資產(chǎn)經(jīng)營情況解析收益分配：REITs分紅收益統(tǒng)計投資者結(jié)構(gòu)：梳理參與機構(gòu)類型的變遷策略視角：多重視角下的配置策略選擇301市場回顧：聚焦2023年以來市場變化4

5數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上交所、深交所，國金證券研究所；統(tǒng)計截至2024/5/31

6數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國金證券研究所

7數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，、證監(jiān)會官網(wǎng)，REITs相關(guān)公告，國金證券研究所；統(tǒng)計截至2024/5/3102基本面：底層資產(chǎn)經(jīng)營情況解析8

收入（萬元）同比變化可供分配金額（萬元）行業(yè)類型代碼簡稱上市日期2023年13137.8242857.1411479.6118077.9328594.6812363.862024年Q13405.8011943.472645.584969.856960.684386.383633.002311.181098.852629.152695.352797.981362.741954.041820.781961.754574.331462.131964.9010074.3418750.5218707.645828.2810576.7618834.888706.4021594.067126.687233.198943.6528121.249380.6530236.51同比變化13.90%33.13%14.05%66.72%-4.01%173.47%-19.58%-3.05%-10.14%-3.09%-7.07%-2023年9718.2035040.517351.8411819.6616396.949709.648111.607583.513940.998059.146032.844285.555109.635741.935505.306076.14-完成率99.06%101.46%107.88%81.74%102.62%77.78%64.85%121.78%102.76%107.40%101.80%104.94%103.89%109.09%110.99%125.30%-2024年Q12526.618884.012003.742767.623873.273283.331064.161891.88773.78完成率110.00%99.95%114.07%75.38%94.49%103.57%52.48%99.79%78.54%100.86%97.72%101.87%104.97%99.28%97.65%80.33%100.40%102.73%109.99%103.41%111.17%127.76%82.85%89.90%101.63%123.39%66.33%109.21%120.60%47.20%48.83%189.91%77.85%180301.SZ508056.SH508098.SH180101.SZ508027.SH508000.SH508099.SH180102.SZ508021.SH508088.SH180103.SZ508019.SH180501.SZ508058.SH紅土創(chuàng)新鹽田港REIT中金普洛斯REIT2021/6/212021/6/212023/2/811.66%19.61%-倉儲物流嘉實京東倉儲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施REIT博時蛇口產(chǎn)園REIT2021/6/212021/6/212021/6/2159.84%22.20%46.20%-14.56%-26.66%-36.70%-14.82%-東吳蘇園產(chǎn)業(yè)REIT華安張江產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT建信中關(guān)村REIT

2021/12/17

17314.27產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)華夏合肥高新REIT2022/10/102022/10/139515.054919.37國君臨港創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT國君東久新經(jīng)濟REIT華夏和達高科REIT2022/10/14

10947.332022/12/27

11232.732032.191473.851952.111340.881425.131343.941220.253276.51887.28中金湖北科投光谷REIT紅土深圳安居REIT2023/6/302022/8/312022/8/312022/8/312022/12/96319.715490.727687.107300.527841.07---20.59%-13.39%-12.57%--1.08%3.10%0.95%1.84%-中金廈門安居REIT保障性租賃住房

508068.SH508077.SH華夏北京保障房REIT華夏基金華潤有巢REIT508031.SH城投寬庭保租房REIT

2024/1/12-508017.SH華夏金茂商業(yè)REIT嘉實物美消費REIT華夏華潤商業(yè)REIT平安廣州廣河REIT浙商滬杭甬REIT華夏越秀REIT2024/3/122024/3/122024/3/142021/6/212021/6/21-----消費基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施508011.SH180601.SZ180201.SZ508001.SH180202.SZ508018.SH508008.SH508066.SH508009.SH508007.SH508006.SH180801.SZ180401.SZ508096.SH-----1211.325122.1915110.7614499.523398.737200.3412406.897026.3112942.324904.754169.441265.345127.9915838.1013649.04-----80120.3474846.6620.28%23.58%17.58%3.57%28.93%--3.78%1.09%-10.77%-9.85%0.76%-6.39%-19.88%-54372.2145396.0416409.5032035.8148832.8422777.8678044.6035617.7313829.2110723.7142008.5932816.8465687.12114.01%144.07%119.41%77.34%106.06%101.18%87.82%105.32%82.09%78.04%133.03%128.27%110.73%2021/12/14

24528.34華夏中國交建REIT國金中國鐵建REIT江蘇交控REIT2022/4/282022/7/846181.6078412.78高速公路2022/11/15

39037.132022/11/22

97025.78中金安徽交控REIT中金山東高速REIT富國首創(chuàng)水務(wù)REIT中航首鋼綠能REIT鵬華深圳能源REIT中航京能光伏REIT-2023/10/272021/6/212021/6/216976.6429940.9442819.99-1.68%-0.52%-16.75%-5.18%-12.35%-13.26%-環(huán)保水務(wù)能源類2022/7/26

190094.892023/3/2932835.2068273.85508028.SH

中信建投國家電投新能源REIT

2023/3/29--9數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所

出租率（%）23Q399.5088.46100.0092.0089.7567.6063.7391.8197.63100.0092.1387.6398.6899.5597.0092.93-日均車流量（萬車次）代碼簡稱行業(yè)類型代碼簡稱行業(yè)類型23Q199.0092.70100.0082.00-23Q299.5087.58100.0093.0090.1182.3167.8491.1198.16100.0093.09-23Q497.6289.63100.0094.0085.4072.0063.7589.8797.6399.3993.2385.1198.3499.8396.9493.07-24Q195.5885.79100.0094.0083.7081.0372.0086.5394.0797.4291.7886.9598.3799.4094.9594.3491.0298.2698.3399.16季度變化23Q113.9513.183.703.1810.794.942.88-23Q213.7614.793.012.3110.774.692.26-23Q315.5215.353.532.6510.274.802.37-23Q413.8715.112.932.2910.753.451.96-24Q113.6214.223.34季度變化180301.SZ508056.SH紅土創(chuàng)新鹽田港REIT中金普洛斯REIT倉儲物流倉儲物流180201.SZ508001.SH180202.SZ508018.SH508008.SH508066.SH508009.SH508007.SH平安廣州廣河REIT浙商滬杭甬REIT華夏越秀REIT高速公路高速公路高速公路高速公路高速公路高速公路高速公路高速公路508098.SH

嘉實京東倉儲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施REIT倉儲物流180101.SZ508027.SH508000.SH508099.SH180102.SZ508021.SH508088.SH180103.SZ508019.SH180501.SZ508058.SH508068.SH508077.SH508031.SH508017.SH508011.SH180601.SZ博時蛇口產(chǎn)園REIT東吳蘇園產(chǎn)業(yè)REIT產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)華夏中國交建REIT國金中國鐵建REIT江蘇交控REIT2.42產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)10.943.63華安張江產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT建信中關(guān)村REIT產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)70.5768.4790.0398.85100.0095.78-產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)中金安徽交控REIT中金山東高速REIT2.29華夏合肥高新REIT產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)2.29-國君臨港創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT國君東久新經(jīng)濟REIT華夏和達高科REIT產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)污水/垃圾平均處理量（萬噸/天）代碼簡稱行業(yè)類型產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)23Q147.930.3123Q261.860.3223Q366.510.3523Q458.700.3724Q155.780.28季度變化產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)508006.SH180801.SZ富國首創(chuàng)水務(wù)REIT中航首鋼綠能REIT生態(tài)環(huán)保生態(tài)環(huán)保中金湖北科投光谷REIT紅土深圳安居REIT產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)保障性租賃住房保障性租賃住房保障性租賃住房保障性租賃住房99.0299.4996.0594.72-98.8799.6497.0396.44-發(fā)電量（萬千瓦時）代碼簡稱行業(yè)類型中金廈門安居REIT23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1季度變化華夏北京保障房REIT華夏基金華潤有巢REIT180401.SZ508096.SH鵬華深圳能源REIT中航京能光伏REIT能源類能源類能源類59369.75108807.05

141972.6068366.1012200.0035183.4657421.1012700.0041716.50--15200.0035060.2215100.0019844.52城投寬庭保租房REIT

保障性租賃住房----508028.SH

中信建投國家電投新能源REIT華夏金茂商業(yè)REIT嘉實物美消費REIT華夏華潤商業(yè)REIT消費基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施消費基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施消費基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施------------10數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所；注：指標統(tǒng)計截至2024年一季度末

11數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所；注：指標統(tǒng)計截至2023年末

7.167.266.816.626.26.056.225.515.715.635.17高速公路環(huán)保水務(wù)能源類12數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所；注：指標統(tǒng)計截至2023年末03收益分配：REITs分紅收益統(tǒng)計13

2023實際分紅率2023預(yù)期分紅率2023實際分紅率2023預(yù)期分紅率14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%高速公路能源類環(huán)保水務(wù)保租房類倉儲物流產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)14數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所

2023實際分紅率2022年實際分紅率2023實際分紅率2022年實際分紅率12.0%8.0%4.0%0.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%倉儲物流產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)高速公路環(huán)保水務(wù)保租房類產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)高速公路能源類15數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所

16數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，REITs收益分配公告，國金證券研究所

17數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，

REITs收益分配公告，國金證券研究所04投資者結(jié)構(gòu)：梳理參與機構(gòu)類型的變遷18

19數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所

機構(gòu)投資者持有比例個人投資者持有比例前十大流通份額占流通總份額比行業(yè)類型簡稱上市日期2021年末

2022年末

2023年末

變化情況

2021年末

2022年末

2023年末

變化情況

2021年末

2022年末

2023年末

同比變化紅土創(chuàng)新鹽田港REIT中金普洛斯REIT2021/6/212021/6/212023/2/886.87%89.04%96.38%-91.81%95.25%96.11%88.48%95.34%95.45%85.99%97.27%97.61%94.58%97.81%95.81%93.87%96.52%94.92%95.71%94.04%93.00%88.95%88.74%96.93%98.44%97.56%97.79%73.10%75.54%94.42%98.04%98.54%13.13%10.96%3.62%-8.19%4.75%3.89%11.52%4.66%4.55%14.01%2.73%2.39%5.42%2.19%4.19%6.13%3.48%5.08%4.29%5.96%7.00%11.05%11.26%3.07%1.56%2.44%2.21%26.90%24.46%5.58%1.96%1.46%51.08%63.37%73.40%-52.47%69.10%40.90%38.95%61.07%51.38%56.68%54.09%36.35%36.55%39.06%41.46%25.17%41.76%44.23%47.80%57.20%59.18%57.04%33.80%46.16%42.86%32.61%89.41%23.61%40.91%41.24%36.00%34.46%-10.91%-4.29%-倉儲物流94.73%5.27%65.18%嘉實京東倉儲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施REIT博時蛇口產(chǎn)園REIT東吳蘇園產(chǎn)業(yè)REIT華安張江產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT建信中關(guān)村REIT*-----2021/6/212021/6/212021/6/212021/12/172022/10/102022/10/132022/10/142022/12/272023/6/302022/8/312022/8/312022/8/312022/12/92021/6/212021/6/212021/12/142022/4/282022/7/882.78%87.03%96.14%92.93%90.14%97.79%97.41%95.35%88.90%-17.22%12.97%3.86%7.07%9.86%2.21%2.59%4.65%11.10%-39.88%58.76%63.49%63.15%61.34%39.45%47.14%45.81%--19.81%-2.42%-11.77%-4.66%14.64%-10.79%-9.26%-94.42%5.58%65.18%88.64%11.36%62.93%91.03%8.97%-產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)華夏合肥高新REIT國君臨港創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT國君東久新經(jīng)濟REIT華夏和達高科REIT*中金湖北科投光谷REIT紅土深圳安居REIT中金廈門安居REIT華夏北京保障房REIT華夏基金華潤有巢REIT*平安廣州廣河REIT浙商滬杭甬REIT--------------------94.53%96.33%95.29%88.00%95.29%91.84%89.50%92.84%97.01%92.50%94.00%--5.47%3.67%4.71%12.00%4.71%8.16%10.50%7.16%2.99%7.50%6.00%--31.96%42.40%37.74%--6.79%-0.64%6.49%----保障性租賃住房------94.90%5.10%63.01%60.19%56.79%57.49%32.29%48.08%--2.99%2.39%-0.44%1.51%-1.92%-91.96%8.04%60.33%

華夏越秀REIT*91.00%9.00%-華夏中國交建REIT國金中國鐵建REIT江蘇交控REIT*---高速公路---2022/11/152022/11/222023/10/272021/6/212021/6/212022/7/262023/3/292023/3/29---中金安徽交控REIT*中金山東高速REIT富國首創(chuàng)水務(wù)REIT中航首鋼綠能REIT鵬華深圳能源REIT中航京能光伏REIT中信建投國家電投新能源REIT------------83.43%78.06%76.72%96.95%-16.57%21.94%23.28%3.05%-25.65%37.53%49.81%45.14%--13.92%-8.89%-3.90%-環(huán)保水務(wù)能源類73.95%26.05%30.15%-----------------

20數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，REITs年報，國金證券研究所

21數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，REITs半年報/年報，國金證券研究所

代碼FOF名稱FOF類型REITs倉位↓

持倉規(guī)模（萬元）

017580.OF008158.OF016660.OF016394.OF016974.OF015241.OF017267.OF013512.OF016669.OF012743.OF012791.OF012190.OF015999.OF013155.OF014033.OF匯添富添福鑫添益均衡養(yǎng)老目標三年持有招商盛鑫優(yōu)選3個月持有期(FOF)A招商和惠養(yǎng)老2045五年持有平衡混合型偏股混合型目標日期型偏債混合型偏債混合型偏債混合型目標日期型偏債混合型平衡混合型偏債混合型偏股混合型偏債混合型偏債混合型偏債混合型偏債混合型4.47%3.54%2.12%2.05%1.81%1.43%1.27%1.25%1.23%0.59%0.57%0.49%0.43%0.41%0.15%42.23166.74228.9821.40天弘睿享3個月持有A招商智安穩(wěn)健配置1年持有A588.5630.79匯添富鑫添利6個月持有A招商樂頤和惠養(yǎng)老目標日期2035三年持有匯添富添福增長穩(wěn)健養(yǎng)老目標一年持有A招商和享均衡養(yǎng)老目標三年持有A匯添富添福睿選穩(wěn)健養(yǎng)老目標一年持有A匯添富聚焦經(jīng)典一年持有A17.47528.87265.81248.88769.30964.00226.4763.87匯添富添福盈和穩(wěn)健養(yǎng)老目標一年持有A中歐預(yù)見穩(wěn)健養(yǎng)老一年持有A

匯添富添福匯盈穩(wěn)健養(yǎng)老目標一年持有A富國智盈穩(wěn)進12個月持有A14.81數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，公募FOF產(chǎn)品季報，國金證券研究所05REITs投資策略：多重視角下的配置策略選擇23

24數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所

全部份額可自由流通日期上市首日漲跌幅0.36%可以覆蓋鎖定期成本的漲跌幅0.02%代碼簡稱上市日期網(wǎng)下獲配率打新收益率

持有期漲跌幅508007.SH508031.SH508017.SH508011.SH180601.SZ508026.SH508033.SH180602.SZ中金山東高速REIT2023/10/272023/11/12024/1/172024/3/152024/3/152024/3/192024/4/283.53%94.40%49.04%75.95%91.83%17.43%50.30%86.23%-0.92%-6.63%0.42%-0.90%-6.59%0.49%城投寬庭保租房REIT

2024/1/12-0.07%0.56%0.04%華夏金茂商業(yè)REIT嘉實物美消費REIT2024/3/122024/3/122024/3/142024/3/282024/3/292024/4/300.07%0.67%1.42%1.47%0.04%華夏華潤商業(yè)REIT0.04%-0.80%6.72%-0.77%6.92%0.04%嘉實中國電建清潔能源REIT易方達深高速REIT3.51%0.19%2024/4/30.04%-0.34%-2.65%-0.28%-2.61%0.07%中金印力消費REIT2024/5/80.00%0.04%25數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所

26數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所；數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計截至2024/5/31

27數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所；數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計截至2024/5/31

28數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所；數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計截至2024/5/31

29數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所

30數(shù)據(jù)：

Wind，國金證券研究所；數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計截至2024/5/31

行業(yè)類型基金代碼508017.SH508011.SH180601.SZ180501.SZ508058.SH基金簡稱P/NAV分位數(shù)

P/FFO分位數(shù)折溢價率0.90%華夏金茂商業(yè)REIT嘉實物美消費REIT華夏華潤商業(yè)REIT紅土創(chuàng)新深圳安居REIT中金廈門安居REIT華夏北京保障房REIT華夏基金華潤有巢REIT城投寬庭保租房REIT紅土創(chuàng)新鹽田港REIT中金普洛斯REIT66.00%84.90%88.20%43.20%59.60%55.50%39.40%88.70%18.00%19.10%10.00%20.10%18.50%7.50%66.00%84.90%88.20%44.60%57.00%59.30%45.90%88.70%24.90%14.70%10.00%16.40%15.20%6.00%消費類8.31%0.25%5.07%8.08%保租房類

508068.SH13.90%4.55%508077.SH508031.SH3.41%180301.SZ2.04%倉儲物流

508056.SH-7.02%-19.81%-15.02%-17.50%-15.62%-22.34%-10.55%7.69%508098.SH

嘉實京東倉儲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施REIT180101.SZ508027.SH508000.SH508099.SH180102.SZ508021.SH508088.SH180103.SZ508019.SH180201.SZ508001.SH180202.SZ508018.SH508008.SH508066.SH508009.SH508007.SH180401.SZ508096.SH博時蛇口產(chǎn)園REIT東吳蘇園產(chǎn)業(yè)REIT華安張江產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT建信中關(guān)村REIT39.70%25.00%13.30%18.90%51.80%55.40%34.90%81.50%30.20%16.20%55.30%5.80%18.90%25.30%18.60%19.20%36.40%50.40%39.50%48.40%22.00%13.20%10.00%9.30%產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)華夏合肥高新REIT臨港創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)業(yè)園REIT東久新經(jīng)濟REIT4.74%華夏和達高科REIT中金湖北科投光谷REIT平安廣州廣河REIT浙商滬杭甬REIT-13.68%-12.61%-11.67%18.40%10.99%-39.26%8.75%華夏越秀高速REIT華夏中國交建REIT國金中國鐵建REIT江蘇交控REIT高速公路-8.44%-20.71%12.76%37.31%18.53%14.73%18.28%16.86%28.04%中金安徽交控REIT中金山東高速REIT鵬華深圳能源REIT中航京能光伏REIT10.50%95.80%13.60%79.80%87.90%63.40%23.70%36.60%5.70%95.80%38.20%25.00%87.90%63.40%12.00%29.60%能源類508028.SH

中信建投國家電投新能源REIT508026.SH

嘉實中國電建清潔能源REIT508006.SH18