汽車出行的未來 THE FUTURE OF AUTOMOTIVE MOBILIT Y,2024 The CASE paradigm confronts reality

2024

THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

TheCASEparadigmconfrontsreality

2

CONTENT

FOREWORD3

EXECUTIVESUMMARY4

1.MOBILITYPROFILE&CAROWNERSHIP8

2.NEWMOBILITYSERVICES12

3.AUTONOMOUSDRIVING16

4.ALTERNATIVEDRIVETRAINS&

CHARGINGINFRASTRUCTURE20

5.DIGITAL’SIMPACTONSALESMODELS28

CONCLUSION:STEERINGAWAYFROM“CASE”32

RICHARDPARKIN

Partner,Automotive&GrowthPracticesParis

DR.PHILIPPSEIDEL

Principal,Automotive&SustainabilityPracticesMunich

ThisReportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthecontributionsofOskarHelsingQvistandAnn-Laure

DeClerq.WearealsogratefultoAliaumedelaRochefoucauld,NicolaBorgo,andAdrienGauthierfortheir

contributionstosurveydesignandanalysis.WewouldfurtherliketoacknowledgeallthosewhocontributedtothereviewofthisReport,especially:Dr.KlausSchmitz,Francois-JosephVanAudenhove,andSimonVessey.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

3

FOREWORD

ThisfourtheditionoftheArthurD.Little(ADL)“FutureofAutomotiveMobility”globalend-userstudybuildsuponpreviouseditionstodeliverinsightsbasedonextensiveprimarycustomerresearch.Firstconductedin2015,thestudyidentifiesdisruptionsandtrendsforthefuture,

providingtheintelligencethatindustryactorsneedtomeetchangingcustomerrequirementsindifferentpartsoftheworld.Forthisedition,weanalyzedasampleof

over16,000usersfromanunprecedented25countries,whichcollectivelyaccountsforover80%ofglobalnewcarregistrations.

Ourresearchshowsthatthesimpleviewofunidirectionalprogresstowardaconnected,autonomous,shared,andelectric(CASE)worldisincreasinglyuntenable,asboth

producersandconsumersreassesscostsandbenefits;italsoconfirmstrendsidentifiedinpreviouseditionsofthisstudy.Theimmediateworldofautomotivemobilitywillbeconnected,assisted(notautonomous),private,andinaprotractedtransitiontoelectric.

Moreover,weseesignificantandincreasingdivergencebetweenthematuremarketsoftheUS,Europe,and

NorthAsia,whichareatpeakmotorization,andthemoredynamic,yetprice-sensitive,marketsoftherestofAsiaandtheMiddleEast.

RichardParkin

Partner

AutomotiveandGrowthPractices

4

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

POWERINGTHROUGH

CURRENTAUTOMOTIVECHALLENGES

Duringtheearly2000s,manyautomotive

industrycommentatorspredictedthatwewouldbewellonourwaybynowtolivinganddrivinginaCASEworld.

Ataponoursmartphonescreenwouldsummonazero-emission,driverlessvehicletoourdoor,readytowhiskustoourdestinationincomfort,withconnectedappskeepingusinconstant

touchwiththeworldaroundus.Attheendofourjourney,thevehiclewouldglideawaytoitsnextpassenger,leavingusfreefromworriesabout

ownership,maintenance,andparking.

However,previouseditionsofthe“Futureof

AutomotiveMobility”study,alongwiththe

actionsofOEMs,confirmthatexpectationsofaCASEfuturehavenotyetuniversallytranslatedintoreality.Whilecarsarenowconnected

andwellonthewaytobeingelectric,theyareassistedratherthanautonomousandremainindividual(orprivate)ratherthanshared.Theindustryincreasinglyrecognizesthis:launchdatesforfullyautonomousvehicleshavebeenpushedbackorcanceled,andstrategiesareshiftingfromfullautonomytopromoting

advancedassisteddriving.

Thiseditionofthestudyaddressesthefollowingfivetopics:

1.Usermobilityprofilesandcarownership

2.Newmobilityservices

3.Autonomousdriving

4.Alternativedrivetrains,includingelectricvehicles(EVs),andcharginginfrastructure

5.Theimpactofdigitaltoolsonsalesmodels

Basedonouranalysis,thesectorneedstoactonfourkeychallenges,inparticular:

1.Driversmustbeconvincedtoembracemoresustainablemotoringandmovefrominternalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclestomeet

requirementstoreducestill-increasing

transportcarbondioxide(CO2)emissions.

Thischangeisnotonlycriticalforachieving

decarbonization;italsodeliversreturnsonthegrowinginvestmentmadebytheindustryintransitionalhybridandbatteryelectricvehicle(BEV)technologies.

2.Companiesmustmeetregulatorychallengeslinkedtodecarbonization,suchastightenedemissionsregulations,whichincludelow

emissionszonesandbansonthesaleofICE

vehicles,whileensuringtheyreapthefinancialbenefitsofgovernmentincentives,suchastheUSInflationReductionAct(IRA).Atthesame

time,theymustnavigategrowinggeopoliticalrivalriesbetweentheUS,Europe,andChina,

whichaffectoperations,especiallyglobalsupplychains.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

5

3.Existingmanufacturersneedtoaddresstheimpactofnewdisruptors,suchasChineseEV-nativeOEMsjoiningthelikesofTeslatoincreasecompetitionanddecreasebrand

loyalty,whichintensifiespressureonpricingandspeedofinnovation.

4.Bothmanufacturersandretailersmust

continuetodigitizetheirsalesoperations

toensurethatcustomerscanmove

betweendigitalandphysicalpurchasing

optionsaccordingtotheirpreferences.

Whilemassivestrideshavebeenmadewithproducts(e.g.,connectedcarsandsoftwarearchitecture),opportunitiesremainintermsofsaleschannelsandcustomerexperience.Understandingthecustomerdimensionis

centraltosettingtherightstrategy.

CASEMEETSREALITY

Revaluatingthejourney

Forthepast15years,theautomotiveindustry’sfuturehasbeenframedaroundtheconceptofCASE:

-Connected.Fullydigital,connectedvehiclesconstantlysharedatatoenablenewservices,includingentertainment,safety,navigation,fuelefficiency,andmaintenance.

-Autonomous.Level4(L4)andLevel5(L5,highdrivingautomation/fulldrivingautomation)

vehiclesoperatewithahighdegreeof

autonomyandareessentiallyself-driving.

-Shared.On-demand,sharedmodels

increasinglyreplaceindividualcarownership,reducingcostsforusersthroughincreased

assetutilizationandopeningnewrevenuestreamsforOEMs.

-Electric.Electricpowertrainsbecome

dominant,replacingICEvehiclestoreduceemissionsandtransformthedriving

experience.

EXPECTATIONSOFA

CASEFUTUREHAVE

NOTYETUNIVERSALLYTRANSLATEDINTO

REALITY

HowfardowntheroadtoCASEarewe?

Combiningourglobalcustomerresearchwithothersourcesshowsapicturethat

issubstantiallydifferentfromtheoneweexpectedjustafewyearsago:

-Connected.Whilethishasbecomethe

standardinareassuchasnavigation,

entertainment,safety,maintenance,and

service,theconnectedinterfaceisoftenthe

owner’ssmartphoneratherthantheconnectedservicesofferedbythemanufacturer.

-Autonomous.Thereislimitedcustomer

interestinhigher-levelL4/L5autonomy,duetoongoingsafetyconcerns.L2/L3(partial

drivingautomation/conditionaldriving

automation)deliversthebenefitsthatmostcustomerswant,withoutrequiringchangestotheregulatoryenvironmentneededforL4/L5.Atthesametime,OEMshaveadvanced

farlessonautonomythanoriginallyplanned,primarilyduetootherdemandsoncapital,

suchascreatingnewsoftwarearchitecturesanddevelopingEVs.

-Shared.Carsharing,whilegrowing,remains

atonly3%oftheglobalsharedmobilitymarket(US$3billionofa$100billionmarket).Ithas

failedtotakeoffasoperatorafteroperatorhasstruggledtodevelopaviablebusinessmodel,primarilyduetolowutilizationand

highchangeovercostsbetweendrivers.

Moreover,carOEMshaveprogressivelyexitedthebusiness.1Ridehailingviadigitalapps

hasinsteadseenthefastestgrowthand

heaviestuse.Forallthetalkofwidespread

de-motorization,thischangeremainslimitedtowealthy,Western,urbanareaswherehigh-qualitypublictransportisinplace.

1ADLhashighlightedtheunderlyingcauses,togetherwiththepotentialroleofcarsharingwithinthebroaderecosystem,intherecentReport“SharinginSuccess.”

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

-Electric.BEVisbecomingthemainstream

technology,asbatterycostsdeclineandrangeincreaseswhileinfrastructurecontinuesto

improve.NorthernEurope(Norwayandthe

Netherlands)andChinaleadBEVadoption.

However,therearesignificantnumbersof

ICEholdouts,especiallyintheUS,andmanycustomersarechoosinghybridsoverpureEVs.

Navigatingthefuture

UnevenprogresstowardCASEpointstothe

challengestheautomotiveindustryfaces

nowandinthefuture.Inadditiontomaking

investmentstoelectrifypowertrainsand

redefinevehiclesoftwarearchitectures,it

mustcopewithdisruptionbynewentrants,

heightenedsustainabilitypressures,and

changingcustomerneeds.Theseconsiderationsaresetagainstthebackdropoftightening

regulations,geopoliticalturbulence,and

potentialnationalandregionaltariffsonanindustrythatstrivestooperateglobally.

Aboutthe“FutureofAutomotiveMobility”Report

ThisisthefourtheditionofADL’sglobalautomotivecustomerstudy.Ithasbeensignificantly

extendedfromtheprevious2021editiontocover25countries,with57%oftheglobalpopulation

responsiblefor82%ofworldwidecarregistrations.Thestudysurveyed16,000customers,10%of

whomdidnothaveadriver’slicense,todeliver

adeeperperspectiveonalternativemobility.

Analysisisthereforebasedon10millionindividualobservations,comparedwherenecessaryto

abaselineof8millionfrompreviousstudies.

Respondentswereoftenaskedtorankpreferencesonafive-pointscale(e.g.,from“notlikelyatall”

to“verylikely”).Tosimplifytheinterpretationoftheseresults,wecreatedasingleweightedscale,rangingfrom-100to100:

--100—allrespondentsanswered“notlikelyatall”

-0—preferenceswerebalanced;asmany

respondentsanswered“l(fā)ikely”as“notlikely”ortwiceasmanyrespondentsanswered“notlikely”asanswered“verylikely”

-100—everyrespondentanswered“verylikely”Inaddition,tofacilitatethereadingofthisReport,wherenumbersintheillustratedfiguresare

morethan20%abovetheglobalaverage,we

highlighttheminblack/whitebold.Wheretheyaremorethan20%below,wehighlightthemin

redbold.

6

ARTHURD.LITTLE

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REPORT:THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

1.MOBILITYPROFILE&CAROWNERSHIP

MOTORIZATIONIS

ACTUALLYGROWING

Despiteearlierpredictionsthattheimportanceofcarownershipcarwilldecrease,thenumber

ofvehiclesontheworld’sroadsisgrowing,not

shrinking.Globally,usersbelievethathavingtheirownvehiclewillbeequallyormoreimportantin10years’time(seeFigure12)comparedtotoday.Thisoutlookisdrivenbythreetrends:

1.Large-scaleincreasesincarownershipin

developingmarkets,duetoeconomicgrowth.ThetraditionalS-curverelationshipbetweenGDPpercapitaandcarsperhousehold

continuestohold,withrapidgrowthincar

ownershipabove$5,000GDPpercapita,

reachingaplateauataverageannualincomesabove$20,000percapita(seeFigure2).

Figure1.Importanceoffuturecarownership

Whilenosinglevariablealonecanexplainmotorizationrates(populationdensity,publictransportationavailability,and

incomedistribution,amongothers,playarole),realGDPgrowthisthenumberonefactorbyfar.

2.Greaterrelianceoncars,aspeopleageandtheirlivingconditionsandmobilityneeds

entailshiftsinpreferences(seeFigure3).

3.Carownershipasanecessity,whereitisthecheapestand/oreasiestformofmobility;forexample,intheUS,mostlylow-incomegroupsreportthattheywouldnotgiveuptheircars,whilethoseinruralcommunitiesandsmaller

townsdrivethefurthestonaverageperyear.

Theseelementsofspatialstructureandpublictransportationinfrastructureexplainthe

differentlevelsoftheplateau(e.g.,0.7carspercapitaintheUSversus0.4to0.6inmostOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment[OECD]countries).

Doyouexpect,in10years,possessingacarwillbeasimportanttoyouasitistoday?

Weightednetimportancescore(scale:-100to100)

.<0

>20

.0to20

Norway

-4

Sweden

1

UK

0

Belgium

-8

France

-6

Türkiye

32

Japan

5

China

21

US

8

Poland

4

Germany

0

Spain

-4

India

38

Italy

-10

UAE

21

CzechRepublic

9

SouthKorea

1

f

Thailand

17

Mexico

25

KSA

35

Vietnam

27

Morocco

14

Indonesia

10

Singapore

-3

Malaysia

10

SGlobal23

Source:ArthurD.Little

2ForallfiguresinthisReport,valuesareweightedbycountrycarsales.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

9

Figure2.S-curverelationshipbetweenGDPpercapita

(2022$atmarketexchangerates)andcarsper1,000inhabitants

1,000

.

800

Carsper1,000people

600

.

400

(魯)

200

0

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

GDPpercapita(logarithmicscale)

Note:Includespassengercars+LCVs(lightcommercialvehicles)

Source:ArthurD.Little,WorldBank,S&PGlobal

Figure3.Attitudestowardfuturecarownershipbyage

Doyouexpect,in10years,possessingacarwillbeasimportanttoyouasitistoday?

Weightednetlikelinessscore(scale:-100to100)

oldl1.l---ulll…,l

-15

5423

<45years

18172017

8810

25

14

2830

>45yearsold

37

16

34

-7-3-9-4-6

-19-20-17

2015201820202023201520182020202320152018202020232015201820202023

-13-14-10-15

Note:Notallregionsreportedduetodifferencesincountriesstudiedbyregionsince2018

Source:ArthurD.Little

10

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

Amongoursample,expectationofde-

motorizationisnotwidespread;itislimitedtoWesternEuropeanddenselypopulated

areasinAsia(e.g.,SingaporeandHongKong).

Expectedde-motorizationisessentiallya

wealthy,urbanphenomenon,withhigh-qualitypublictransportationaprerequisite.Three-

quarters(76%)ofthoseinEuropeancitieswith

apopulationofover5millionarepreparedto

giveuptheircar,comparedto62%intownswithunder250,000people.ADL’s“FutureofMobility”cityranking3isledbycitiessuchasSingapore,Stockholm,Amsterdam,andCopenhagen,

whichhavehighlymature,cost-effectivepublictransportandstrongsupportforalternative

mobilitytypeslikecycling.

Relatedly,thereisaninversecorrelation

betweencitysizeandcarusage.Incities

withover250,000inhabitants,aroundhalfofrespondentsdriveunder6,000kmayear.

Insmallertownsandsuburbanenvironments

(under250,000),peoplewhodrivebetween

6,000and15,000kmarethemajority.Two-thirds(67%)ofthoseintownswithapopulationof

under10,000driveover6,000kmeachyear.

Youngpeopleexpecttheimportanceofhavingacartobehigherin10years,eveninmature

marketssuchasEuropeandNorthAmerica.Onlytheolderagegroup(over45)inEuropeandNorthAmericaexpecttode-motorizeastheyage

(referbacktoFigure3).

WHATDODRIVERSWANTINTHEIRNEXTCAR?

Whendecidingontheirnextvehicle,customersinmaturemarketsaremuchmorelikely

tochooseausedcarcomparedtothosein

emergingregions,suchasChinaandIndia

(seeFigure4).Thisispartlyaspirationalintermsofadesiretoownanewvehiclebutisalsodue

totheavailabilityofqualityusedvehicles.

Maturemarketshaveaplentifulsupplyofa

broadrangeofusedcars,oftensourcedfromawell-developedleasingmarketandbackedbyatrustedusedvehicledistributionbrand.Theseconditionsdrivehighertrustinthequalityofusedvehiclesandinusedcarsaleschannels.

CUSTOMERSINMATURE

MARKETSAREMUCH

MORELIKELYTOCHOOSEAUSEDCARCOMPARED

TOTHOSEINEMERGINGREGIONS

Figure4.Futurecarownershipplans

Whatisyourplanregardingcarownershipand/oruseforyournextcar?

1%7%

17%

32%

36%

96%

78%

61%

52%

10%

4%

90%

20%

84%

89%

75%

GlobalChinaSEAIndiaMEEuropeUSNEA

BuynewcarBuyusedcarPrivateleasingCompanycarPrivatecarsubscriptionSharedmobilityserviceOthermodesoftransport

Note:TofacilitatethereadingofthisReport,wherenumbersaremorethan20%abovetheglobalaverage,wehighlighttheminblack/whitebold.Wheretheyaremorethan20%below,wehighlighttheminredbold.

Source:ArthurD.Little

3VanAudenhove,Fran?ois-Joseph,etal.”FutureofMobility3.0:ReinventingMobilityintheEraofDisruptionandCreativity.”ArthurD.Little,March2018.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

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REPORT:THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

2.NEWMOBILITYSERVICES

Thereisnogeneraltrendawayfromcarownershiportowardsharedtransportationvisibleinour

data.Thestudyshowsalackofinterestingivinguppersonalcarownership,asitisstillconsideredessentialformany,particularlyinareaswithoutgoodpublictransportation.Owningacarisalsoanaspirationforpeopleunder45astheymove

intomiddleageandforthoseinless-motorizedpartsoftheworld.

Whenaskedwhatwouldpersuadethemtogiveuptheirpersonalcar,respondentscitednew,

lower-costmobilityservices(50%)andhigh

availabilityofsuchservices(38%).However,28%wouldnotconsidergivinguptheircarunderanycircumstances.

Amongalternativemobilitymethods,traditionalchoicesofpublictransportorridehailing(whichnolongeronlyincludestaxis)remainthemostpopular.

Carmanufacturingisthereforenotunderthreatfromde-motorizationinthevastmajorityof

markets.However,tighteninglegislationand

increasingurbanizationcouldreducecardemandoverthelongerterm.Toincreasetheirshare

ofmobilityandusernumbers,publictransportauthoritiesandoperatorsshouldfocuson

improvingtheavailabilityandqualityoftheservicestheyoffer.

TRYINGNEWSERVICESISUNUSUAL

Whenitcomestoexperimentingwithnew

services,China(upto50%)andIndia(upto45%)havethehighestpercentagesofurbanresidentswhohavetriedcarandridesharing.However,asshowninFigure5,neitherserviceismainstream,aslessthan50%ofrespondentshavetried

them.Traditionalpublictransportremainsstrong,especiallyinEuropeandChina.

Figure5.Typesofnewmobilityservicestriedbyurbandwellers,byregion

Whichtypesofnewmobilityserviceshaveyouused?

Onlyurbanrespondents(in%)

Ridehailing

80

60

40

20

Sharingof

personal

transportation

device

Carsharing

sshare

2-wheelersharing

Localunderground/metro,tram,busservice

Public

transportation

Ridesharing

Localtrainservice

0

ChinaSEAIndiaMEEUUS一NEA

Source:ArthurD.Little

ARTHURD.LITTLE

13

Infact,themostoftenexperiencednewmobilityserviceforurbanrespondentsisridehailing,

triedby50%-75%ofpeopleineveryregionorcountryexceptEuropeandNortheastAsia.

Globally,thoseinthe30-44agerangearetheheaviestexperimenters,withabout45%tryingride,car,ortwo-wheelersharing,comparedtoonlyabout5%ofpeopleover60whohavetriedmostservicetypes(seeFigure6).

NEWMOBILITYSERVICESFOCUSONRIDEHAILING

Therearesignificantregionaldifferencesin

theuseofnewmobilityservices,influenced

bycarownershipratesandaccesstoreliable,

comprehensivepublictransport.UrbandwellersinIndia,SoutheastAsia,andtheMiddleEast

makeanaverageof14to17journeyseach

monthusingnewmobilityservices,comparedtoresidentsofEurope,theUS,China,and

NortheastAsia,whomakedramaticallyfewer,between11and12(seeFigure7).

Figure6.Typesofnewmobilityservicestriedbyurbandwellers,byage

Whichtypesofnewmobilityserviceshaveyouused?

Onlyurbanrespondents(in%)

Ridehailing

50

40

Ridesharing

20

10

0

Carsharing

2-wheelersharing

Localtrainservice

Public

transportation

Localunderground/metro,tram,busservice

Sharingof

apersonal

transportation

device

sshare

30

<30years30-44years45-60years>60years

Source:ArthurD.Little

Figure7.Averagemonthlyusageofnewmobilityservices

Howmanytimesdoyouusenewmobilityservicesinanormalmonth?

Onlyurbanrespondents

4.4

3.63.73.6

4.54.5

3.9

3.9

4.1

3.8

3.5

3.33.3

3.0

2.7

2.32.3

3.32.92.9

3.53.6

2.42.3

3.93.8

3.6

2.2

2.9

2.5

2.5

3.1

GlobalChinaSEAIndiaMEEuropeUSNEA

CarsharingRidehailingRidesharing2-wheelersharing

Source:ArthurD.Little

14

REPORT:THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

Globally,ridehailingusageoccurs,onaverage,3.5timespermonth,withusagebeinghigherinallpartsofAsiaandlowerintheUS(2.9

journeys)andEurope(2.3journeys).CarsharingisthemostpopularnewmobilityserviceintheUS,withuserstakinganaverageof3.3monthlyjourneys.

WHATDRIVESADOPTIONOFNEWMOBILITYSERVICES?

Whenaskedwhytheychoosenewmobility

services,respondentslistedflexibility(62%),cost(52%),andtheenvironment(44%)as

theirtopthreereasons,asshowninFigure8.

Flexibilitycoversarangeofareas—customersdon’tneedtoownormaintainavehicle,battletrafficincongestedurbanareas,orfind

parking;theycanalsoswitcheasilybetween

differenttransportmodes.FlexibilityisclearlythenumberonereasonforusingnewmobilityserviceseverywhereoutsideEurope(wherecostslightlyoutweighsit)andtheUS(wherecostisalmostasimportantasflexibility).

Incomehadaminorimpactonthereasonsforchoosingnewmobilityservicesamongurbanrespondents.However,costunsurprisingly

increasedinimportanceforlower-incomegroups,whileflexibilityandenvironmentalconsiderationsdecreased:

-Very-high-incomegroups—66%cited

flexibilityasthekeyreason,47%saidcost,and51%citedtheenvironment.

-Low-incomegroups—58%choseflexibilityasakeyfactor,55%citedcost,and44%citedtheenvironment.

Whenaskedwhatchangestonewmobility

serviceswouldencouragepeopletogiveuptheircars,themajorareasrespondentshighlightedgloballyarecost(50%)andavailability(44%).

Twenty-eightpercentwouldnotgiveuptheircarsunderanycircumstances.Thereare

significantregionaldifferences:77%ofChineserespondentsrequiregreateravailabilityto

replacetheircarswithmobilityservices;75%ofIndiansciteimprovedeaseofuse;andnearlyhalf(49%)ofUSrespondentsand37%ofthoseinEuropewouldnotgiveuptheircarunder

anycircumstances.Essentially,toincrease

theadoptionofnewmobilityservices,peoplerequirelowercosts,higheravailability,greaterflexibility,improvedreliability,andincreasedquality.Thiscombinationofrequirements

forhigherserviceandlowercosttypically

makesthe“shared”elementofCASEunviableeconomically.

Figure8.Reasonsforchoosingnewmobilityservices

Whatmotivatesyoutousenewmobilityservices?

Onlyurbanrespondents

甩,

71%

73%

69%

62%

59%

56%

49%51%

44%

41%

34%

51%45%

56%

34%

60%

50%

49%

44%

44%

43%

54%

52%

67%

GlobalChinaSEAIndiaMEEuropeUSNEA

FlexibilityCostEnvironment

Source:ArthurD.Little

ARTHURD.LITTLE

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REPORT:THEFUTUREOFAUTOMOTIVEMOBILITY,2024

3.AUTONOMOUSDRIVING

THELEVELOFTRUSTINAUTONOMOUSDRIVINGTECHNOLOGYHAS

NOTSIGNIFICANTLYINCREASEDOVER

THEPASTFIVEYEARS

Fiveyearsago,thefirstL4/L5productioncarsforprivateuserswereprojectedtobeavailablebythesecondhalfofthedecade,withrapid

ramp-upthereafter.However,traditionalOEMshavepushedtheirprojectsback,withnew

entrantssuchasAppleandAlphabeteither

downgradingordiscontinuinglong-term

projects.OEMsandoperatorsarenowlimited

topilotingoperationscarriedoutunderspecialpermitsandmorecontrolledconditions.

WHATDRIVESDIFFERENCES

INAUTONOMOUSACCEPTANCE?

Despitetechnologi