東北老工業(yè)基地振興前景展望

東北老工業(yè)基地振興前景展望Expectation

of

the

Renaissance

of

theNortheast

of

China李凱

教授 東北大學(xué)Prof. Li

Kai

NEU目

錄Contents東北振興政策的出臺The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China有望成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長第四極Hoping

to

be

the

fourth

pole

of

China’s

economic

growth體制改革及其成本問題The

problems

of

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost東北振興前景Expectation

of

the

Renaissance

of

the

Northeast

of

China1

東北振興政策的出臺The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.1

政策出臺的背景The

background

of

the

policies

promulgation

黨的“十六大”提出的政治任務(wù)Political

task

raised

in

the

16th

congress

of

CCP

溫家寶三次考察東北Premier

Wen Jiabao’s

inspection

on

the

Northeast

of

China

中央政治局全體會議The

plenary

session

of

CCP

(Chinese

Communist

Party)

中共中央、國務(wù)院“關(guān)于實施東北地區(qū)老工業(yè)基地振興戰(zhàn)略的若干政策”Policy

issued

by

the

Communist

Party

and

State

Council

ofthe

renaissance

of

the

northeast

of

China

中共中央十六屆三中全會The

third

plenary

session

of

the

16th

congress

of

CCP溫家寶三次考察東北Premier

Wen

Jiabao’s

inspection

on

the Northeast

of

China2003.1.31

遼寧阜新LiaoNing

Province,

Fuxin

City2003.5.31

遼寧鞍山、本溪、撫順、沈陽LiaoNing

Province,

Anshan,

Benxi,

Fushun,

Shenyang

City2003.8.1

黑龍江、吉林：大慶、哈爾濱；吉林、長春；東三省專家座談會HeiLongjiang

ProvinceJiLin

ProvinceDaqing,

Ha’erbin

CityJilin

City,

Changchun

City1

東北振興政策的出臺The

promulgation

of

the

Renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.2

中央支持東北振興的政策The

central

government

supports

the

renaissance

policiesof

the

Northeast

of

China

用新思路、新體制、新機制、新方式，走出振興老工業(yè)基地的新路子Carrying

out

a

new

way

to

reconstruct

the

old

industrialbase,

with

new

idea,

new

ownership

system,

newmechanism

and

new

method

不同于以往政策，重點在于營造振興的外圍環(huán)境Different

from

the

former

policies,

it

emphasizes

theconstruction

of

the

outside

environment

of

therenaissance

of

the

northeast

of

China1

東北振興政策的出臺The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheast

of

China1.3

政策重點Policy

emphasis

完善社會保障體系Perfect

the

social

security

system

解決重點企業(yè)歷史遺留問題Solving

the

historical

problems

of

those

crucial

enterprises

支持重點企業(yè)改造Supporting

the

alteration

of

the

crucial

enterprises

稅收改革試點Making

tax

reform

experimental

units

資源枯竭型城市改造Re-building

theresource-exhausted

city

生態(tài)環(huán)境建設(shè)Constructing

the

bio-environment解決重點大企業(yè)歷史遺留問題Solving

the

historical

problems

of

those

crucial

enterprises剝離重點大企業(yè)的社會職能（中央財政補助）Splitting

the

social

function

organizations

off

the

crucial

enterprises優(yōu)先列入全國兼并與破產(chǎn)計劃Placing

the

related

companies

preferentially

on

the

bankruptcyagenda處置不良資產(chǎn)（銀行）Dealing

with

bad

assets

(Bank)豁免部分企業(yè)歷史欠稅Releasing

the

tax

arrears

of

some

enterprises降低資源稅Lowing

the

resource

tax允許新設(shè)備增值稅抵免Allowing

countervailing

the

value

added

tax

of

the

new

purchasedequipments稅收體制改革試點Tax

reform

test

in

Northeast改革要點：變生產(chǎn)型增值稅為消費型增值稅，允許企業(yè)新增設(shè)備、廠房、基建等進(jìn)項在銷項中抵免增值稅上述政策將在東北主要工業(yè)行業(yè)中實行試點，取得經(jīng)驗后在全國推廣稅收體制改革試點Tax

reform

test

in

Northeast預(yù)計東北每年可得到100億稅收優(yōu)惠，新投資企業(yè)和老企業(yè)改造將得到支持地方財政收入的減少，將由中央補貼東北振興銀行Northeastern Renaissance

Bank預(yù)計2004年，東北振興銀行將正式掛牌成立地點設(shè)在遼寧省沈陽市資本金50億元人民幣，中央財政和地方財政控股意義：與國家開發(fā)銀行共同支持東北老工業(yè)基地改造；與渤海銀行（天津）、淮海銀行（待批準(zhǔn)）作為區(qū)域性銀行體系的一部分1

東北振興政策的出臺The

promulgation

of

the

renaissance

policies

of

theNortheastern

China1.4

第一批啟動項目The

first

projects

總投資610億人民幣，共100個項目100

projects

all

together,

with

investment

of

61billionRMB

項目分布：Projects

distribution遼寧省Liao

Ning

Province52項資金442.1億元（占72.5%）total

investment

is

44.12

billion,which

takes

up

72.5

percent黑龍江省HeiLong

jiang

Province37項吉林省Jin

Lin

province11項遼寧省重點項目Key

Project

in

LiaoNing大連造船廠擴建DaLian

dockyard

factory

expansion

project大連新船廠擴建DaLian

new

dockyard factory

expansion

project渤海造船廠船塢建設(shè)BoHai

dockyard

factory

boatyard

construct

project鞍鋼冷軋薄板AnShan

iron

and

steel

Group

rolling

sheet

metal

project本鋼冷軋薄板BenXi

iron

and

steel

Group

rolling

sheet

metal

project遼寧省重點項目（繼續(xù)）Key

Project

in

LiaoNing

(continue)中石油（大連）原油加工（90億元）Sino

Petrol

(Dalian)

raw

oil

process

(9billion

RMB)遼寧石油乙烯工程

Liaoning

petrol

ethane

project遼陽PVC工程

Liaoyang

PVCproject沈陽高壓開關(guān)、水泵、鼓風(fēng)機（共計10億元）

Shenyang

machine

projects

(total

1

billion

RMB)遼寧省項目分布（52項，總投資442.1億元）Projects

distribution

in

LiaoNing項目類別Project

sort數(shù)目Amount總投資額Total

Investments原材料工業(yè)項目Raw

Material

Industrial

Projects26個382.4億元裝備制造業(yè)項目Equipment

ManufactureIndustrial

Projects21個51.6億元農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工項目Agriculture

Products

Project5個8.1億元2

有望成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.1

中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的四大區(qū)域Four

rapidly

developing

regions

in

China

長江三角洲（上海、江蘇、浙江），占GDP近?ChangJiang

delta

(including

ShangHai

city,JiangSu

and

ZheJiangProvince)—takes

up

?

GDP

珠江三角洲（廣東）占GDP約1/10ZhuJiang

delta

(including

GuangDong

Province)—1/10

GDP

京津塘地區(qū)（北京、天津、河北北部）Jing—Jin—Tang

Region

(Peking

,Tientsin

and

north

of

HeBei)

東北地區(qū)（遼、吉、黑）占GDP約1/10The

Northeast

of

China

(Liao,

Ji,

Hei)

)—1/10

GDP長江三角洲合計珠江三角洲合計東北三省合計上海浙江江蘇廣東遼寧黑龍江吉林GDP（億元）5408.76767010636.323715.111674.411674.45458.239022242.9611603.2人口（萬人）1334.746477127.3131098642864242383689272810655出口（億美元）320.55294384.8999.351184.651184.65123.719.917.68161.28面積（萬平方公里）0.634110.1810.2621.074117.817.8154619.180.12

有望成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth中國各區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況比較(2002年)2

有望成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.2

東北成為重要經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域的條件超過1億的消費人口資源和產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢：原油產(chǎn)量占全國2/5；商品糧占

1/3；木材占1/2；重型卡車占1/2；造船占1/3；汽車占1/4；鋼產(chǎn)量占1/8有工業(yè)的獨特優(yōu)勢有悠久的制造業(yè)傳統(tǒng)和龐大的產(chǎn)業(yè)隊伍2

有望成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.3

東北振興的障礙產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)問題：傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級和發(fā)展新產(chǎn)業(yè)國有企業(yè)問題：企業(yè)體制和歷史遺留問題計劃經(jīng)濟(jì)體制下形成的政府觀念問題東北地區(qū)自我啟動能力問題2

有望成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.4

重工業(yè)的復(fù)興——東北振興的特殊意義Heavy

industrial

renaissance—the

special

signification

of

ChineseNortheast

renaissance

東北的產(chǎn)業(yè)特點：重工業(yè)體系相對完整，配套能力強。The

traits

of

the

northeastern

industry—Heavy

industry

system

isrelatively

integrative,

with

strong

compatibility

主要產(chǎn)業(yè)：石油開采、石油加工、鋼鐵和有色金屬冶煉、重型機械、發(fā)電設(shè)備、造船、機車、汽車、飛機制造、機床制造Main

industries—petroleum

exploitation

and

refine,

Steel

smeltingindustry,

generate

device,

heavy

machine,

locomotive,

car

andtruck,

ship,

plane

and

machine

tool

manufacturing,

etc.

產(chǎn)業(yè)中心：哈爾濱——發(fā)電設(shè)備、飛機制造Ha’erbin—generate

device,

plane

manufacturing長春——汽車ChangChun—car

and

truck

manufacturing沈陽——機床、重型機械ShenYang—machine

tool

，heavy,machinery大連——造船、機械DaLian—Ship

and

heavy

machinery2

有望成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長第四極Hoping

to

be the

forth

pole

of

Chinese

economic

growth2.5

中國工業(yè)化的方向之爭The

debate

on

the

direction

of

Chinese

industrialization

新型工業(yè)化與傳統(tǒng)工業(yè)化之爭The

debate

between

modern

and

traditional

industrialization

是否需要發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)Whether

we

need

develop

basis

industry

現(xiàn)在是否到了重工業(yè)化階段Whether

we

have

arrived

at

the

heavy

industrialization

stage工業(yè)化過程的三個階段Three

stages

in

the

process

of

industrialization消費品工業(yè)居主導(dǎo)階段，以勞動、資源密集的輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)品為主資本品工業(yè)加速發(fā)展階段，輕工業(yè)產(chǎn)品和資本密集產(chǎn)品共同發(fā)展資本品工業(yè)居主導(dǎo)階段，以高加工程度的資本密集、技術(shù)密集產(chǎn)品為主中國是一個大國，應(yīng)該成為美國那樣的強國。中國新型工業(yè)化道路的核心仍然是工業(yè)化，其工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)應(yīng)該有強大的基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)作為支撐，這是中國現(xiàn)代化的必然選擇。China

is

a

big

country,

which

should

be

a

strongcountry

just

like

the

US.

The

key

of

the

modernindustrialization

is

still

industrialization,

with

strongbasis

industry

as

the

support,

which

is

the

only

choicefor

Chinese

modernization3

體制改革及成本問題The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost振興東北，體制改革是關(guān)鍵，要建立混合所有制經(jīng)濟(jì)體系

Ownership

reform

is

the

key

point

，the

construction

of

themixture

of

the

ownership

systems

is

to

be

carriedout針對國有企業(yè)現(xiàn)狀，體制改革要付“清潔費”

the

ownership

reform

should

pay

the

“clean

fee”應(yīng)由中央和地方分擔(dān)的統(tǒng)籌解決方案

The

central

and

the

local

governments

should

share

theresponsibility3

體制改革及成本問題The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost改革成本估算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform(1)剝離企業(yè)社會職能成本Splitting

the

social

function

cost

from

the

enterprises改革成本估算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform(2)

分離大集體企業(yè)成本Separating

the

cost

of

the

collective

enterprises改革成本估算(繼續(xù))The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform職工身份轉(zhuǎn)變（買斷工齡）The

shift

of

the

employees’

identities

(buy

off

the

serviceyears)養(yǎng)老保險和失業(yè)保險、低保補助資金Endowment

insurance

and

unemployment

insurance,

lowestwelfare

subsidy3

體制改革及成本問題The

problems

about

the

ownership

reform

and

its

cost遼寧省匡算The

assessment

of the

cost

of

the

reform剝離企業(yè)辦社會機構(gòu)(5年)，費用80億元；Splitting

the

social

service

from

the

enterprises

(5

years),

whichcosts

8

bn

RMB

(5.4

billion

from

the

central

government

)分離大集體企業(yè)，安置職工(5年)，費用100-150億元；Splitting

the

huge

collective

enterprises,

employing

theemployees

(5

years),

which

costs

10-15

billion

RMB遼寧省匡算職工身份轉(zhuǎn)變補償(15萬人)，費用15億元；The

compensation

for

the

shift

of

the

employees’

identities,which

costs

1.5

billionRMB養(yǎng)老、失業(yè)保險、低保資金缺口，需33億元The

gap

of

endowment

and

unemployment

insurance,

lowestwelfare

subsidy

needs

3.3

billion

RMB3

體制改革及成本問題The

problems

about

the

ownership

and

its

cost經(jīng)費解決方案The

method

to

solve

the

financial

problem中央和地方共同承擔(dān)——中央負(fù)責(zé)中直企業(yè)，地方負(fù)責(zé)地方企業(yè)The

central

and

local

governments

share

the

responsibility----the

central

for

the

central

monitored

enterprises

and

the

localfor

the

local

ente