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AproductoftheUSAID-NRELPartnershipContractNo.IAG-19-2115
ENABLINGFLOATINGSOLAR
PHOTOVOLTAIC(FPV)DEPLOYMENT
FPVTechnicalPotentialAssessmentforSoutheastAsia
PrateekJoshi,EvanRosenlieb,andSikaGadzanku
NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory
May2023
NREL/TP-5R00-84921
NOTICE
ThisworkwasauthoredbytheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL),operatedbyAllianceforSustainableEnergy,LLC,fortheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)underContractNo.DE-AC36-08GO28308.FundingprovidedbytheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)underInteragencyAgreementNo.IAG-19-2115.TheviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheDOEortheU.S.Government,oranyagencythereof,includingUSAID.
ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)at/publications.
U.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)reportsproducedafter1991andagrowingnumberofpre-1991documentsareavailable
freeviawww.OSTI.gov.
CoverphotofromiStock12776646.
NRELprintsonpaperthatcontainsrecycledcontent.
iii
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Acknowledgments
TheauthorsthankScottBartosfromtheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)’sRegional
DevelopmentMissionforAsia(RDMA)forfundingthisworkandprovidingguidanceduringits
development.Throughoutthedatacollectionandscenariodevelopmentstagesofthisstudy,theauthorsbenefitedfrominformativediscussionsandcorrespondencewith:ApisomIntralawan(MaeFahLuangUniversity),EddyBlokken(SolarEnergyResearchInstituteofSingapore),BrianEylerandCourtney
Weatherby(StimsonCenter),NoahKittner(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill),andGunjanGautam(WorldBank).Wealsowishtothankseveralindividualsfortheirpeerreviews,detailed
comments,insights,andcontributionstothisreport:GunjanGautam,CourtneyWeatherby,Donna
Heimiller(NREL),AlicenKandt(NREL),andAdamWarren(NREL).Finally,wewouldliketothank
LizBreazealeforeditorialassistance.Anyerrorsandomissionsarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthors.
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ListofAcronyms
ASEAN
AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations
EIA
UnitedStatesEnergyInformationAdministration
FPV
floatingsolarphotovoltaic
GW
gigawatt
GWh
gigawatt-hour
GRanD
GlobalReservoirandDamDatabase
IEA
InternationalEnergyAgency
IRENA
InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency
MW
megawatt
NREL
NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory
PV
photovoltaic
RDMA
RegionalDevelopmentMissionforAsia
RE
renewableenergy
SAM
SystemAdvisorModel
SEAsia
SoutheastAsia
SERIS
SolarEnergyResearchInstituteofSingapore
TWh
terawatt-hour
USAID
UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment
v
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ExecutiveSummary
SoutheastAsia(SEAsia)isaregionwithgrowingenergydemandandincreasingdevelopmentoffloatingsolarphotovoltaic(FPV)systems,whichcanhelpmeetcountries’renewableenergy(RE)andenergy
securitygoals.TheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)hassetaregionaltargetof35%REininstalledpowercapacityby2025(ASEAN2022),andFPVisanincreasinglypopularoptiontohelp
meetthisobjective.Forinstance,FPVdevelopmentcanavoidsomeofthechallengesfacedbyground-mountPVsuchascompetinglanduse,andcantakeadvantageofthesignificantexistingandplannedhydropowercapacityintheregionviaco-locationandhybridization.
Thisstudyusesahigh-levelgeospatialassessmentmethodologytoestimatethetechnicalpotentialfor
monofacialandbifacialFPVonreservoirsandnaturalwaterbodiesinthe10countrieswithinASEAN.
TechnicalpotentialconsistsofthesuitablewaterbodyareaforFPVdevelopment(km2),thecapacityof
FPVthatcouldbeinstalledonthissuitablearea(MW),andtheannualenergythatcouldbegenerated
fromtheseinstallations(GWh/year).Thisfirst-of-its-kindFPVtechnicalpotentialassessmentforSEAsiacanhelppolicymakersandplannersbetterunderstandtherolethatFPVcouldplayinmeetingregional
energydemandandcouldultimatelyhelpinforminvestmentdecisions.High-levelresultsforFPV
technicalpotentialinSEAsia,underavarietyofassumptions,arevisualizedin
FigureES-1
forreservoirsand
FigureES-2
fornaturalwaterbodies.
FigureES-1.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialforreservoirsinSEAsia
Note:Theseresultsassumefixed-tiltmonofacialFPVpanels,witha50-mminimumdistance-from-shoreand1,000-mmaximum
distance-from-shorebuffer.Thedatasetexcludeswaterbodiesthataremorethan50kmfrommajorroadsandwaterbodiesthat
arewithinprotectedareas.Theseresultsdonotreflectafilterfordistance-from-transmission.
Atotalof7,301waterbodieswereincludedinthefinaldatasetforSEAsia,whichexcludeswaterbodiesthataremorethan50kmfrommajorroadsandwaterbodiesthatarewithinprotectedareas.Ofthistotal,therewere88reservoirs(includinghydropowerandnon-hydropower)and7,213naturalwaterbodies.Fortheregion,FPVtechnicalpotentialrangesfrom134–278GWonreservoirsand343–768GWonnaturalwaterbodiesbasedonthemethodology,assumptions,availabledata,anddistance-from-shoresensitivities
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thataredescribedingreaterdetailthroughoutthereport.FormonofacialFPV,averagenetcapacityfactorsrangefrom15.6–16.0%andvarybycountryandwaterbodytype.
Inourmediansensitivitycase(50mminimumdistance-from-shoreand1,000mmaximumdistance-
from-shore),thistranslatestoroughly825GWofFPVpotentialacrossbothwaterbodytypesexamined.Undercurrentpolicies,theinstalledcapacityofrenewablesinASEANcountriesisexpectedtoreach235GWby2030,with81GWofutility-scalesolar,and1,311GWby2050,with841GWofutility-scale
solar(IRENAandASEANCentreforEnergy2022).Thus,FPVcanplayanimportantroleintheregion’srenewableenergybuildout.
FigureES-2.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialfornaturalwaterbodiesinSEAsia
Note:Theseresultsassumefixed-tiltmonofacialFPVpanels,witha50-mminimumdistance-from-shoreand1,000-mmaximum
distance-from-shorebuffer.Thedatasetexcludeswaterbodiesthataremorethan50kmfrommajorroadsandwaterbodiesthat
arewithinprotectedareas.Theseresultsdonotreflectafilterfordistance-from-transmission.
Country-specificresultsforFPVtechnicalpotentialarediscussedinthereportanddifferinlevelofdetail
basedonavailabledata.Forinstance,transmissionlinedatawasonlyavailableforCambodia,Laos,
Myanmar,thePhilippines,Thailand,andVietnam.Forthesecountries,asecondsetofresultsfor
technicalpotentialwasalsogeneratedbyexcludingwaterbodiesmorethan25kmfromatransmissionline;althoughforsiteswithlargeFPVtechnicalpotential,a25kmdistancefromthetransmissionlinemightnotbeabarriertodevelopment.Thistransmissionlinefilterdoesnotsignificantlyimpactthe
technicalpotentialresultsforreservoirs,andtheimpactfornaturalwaterbodiesvariesbycountry.
ThoughthisworkfocusesonSEAsia,themethodologyforcalculatingFPVtechnicalpotentialmight
alsobeapplicableforcountriesinotherregions,withadaptations.Duetodatalimitations,theseresultscanbeviewedasaconservative,upper-boundestimateofFPVtechnicalpotentialintheregion.Site-
specificdataonwindandwaves,bathymetry,seasonalvariationinwaterlevels,andsedimentationwerenotavailableonascalethatwouldallowforconsistentandreproduceablecountry-andregion-wide
geospatialanalysis.Rather,thisstudyisintendedasastartingpointforfurtheranalysisandtoprovide
vii
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somedata-driveninsightstohelpclarifythepotentialroleofFPVinmeetingSEAsia’selectricitydemand,sustainabilitytargets,andenergysecurityobjectives.
Theprimaryintendedaudiencesforthisworkinclude:
1.DecisionmakerswithinenergyministriesandutilitiesconsideringthepotentialforFPVtosupportbroaderenergyanddevelopmentgoals
2.EnergysystemmodelerstaskedwithexploringandquantifyingthepotentialvaluethatFPVinstallationsmayprovidewithinaspecificenergysystem
3.DevelopersthatmightbeinterestedinbuildingFPVintheSEAsiaregion
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TableofContents
1Introduction 1
1.1FPVBackground 2
1.2RelevantPriorResearch 2
2Methods 4
2.1DataCollection 4
2.2ScenarioDevelopment 5
2.3TechnicalPotentialCalculation 6
2.3.1FPVSuitableArea 6
2.3.2FPVCapacityandGeneration 7
3Findings 9
3.1SummaryofRegionalResults 9
3.2SummaryofCountry-SpecificResults 10
4Discussion 13
4.1SEAsiaContext 13
4.1.1WaterbodyType 13
4.1.2FPVTechnologyType 13
4.2Country-SpecificResults 13
4.2.1Brunei 14
4.2.2Cambodia 15
4.2.3Indonesia 16
4.2.4Laos 17
4.2.5Malaysia 18
4.2.6Myanmar 18
4.2.7Philippines 19
4.2.8Singapore 20
4.2.9Thailand 21
4.2.10Vietnam 22
5Conclusion 24
References 25
Appendix 32
BruneiResults 32
CambodiaResults 33
IndonesiaResults 34
LaosResults 35
MalaysiaResults 36
MyanmarResults 37
PhilippinesResults 38
SingaporeResults 39
ThailandResults 40
VietnamResults 41
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ListofFigures
FigureES-1.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialforreservoirsinSEAsia v
FigureES-2.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialfornaturalwaterbodiesinSEAsia vi
Figure1.CountriesincludedintheFPVtechnicalpotentialassessment 1
Figure2.Representativeschematicsofstand-aloneFPV(top)andhybridFPV-hydropower(bottom)
systems 2
Figure3.High-resolutionsolarresourcedataavailableforSEAsia 3
Figure4.WaterbodyandFPVtechnologytypesincludedinanalysisscenarios 5
Figure5.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialforreservoirsinSEAsia 12
Figure6.FPVgenerationandcapacitytechnicalpotentialfornaturalwaterbodiesinSEAsia 12
Figure7.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinBrunei 14
Figure8.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinCambodia 15
Figure9.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinIndonesia 16
Figure10.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinLaos 17
Figure11.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinMalaysia 18
Figure12.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinMyanmar 19
Figure13.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinthePhilippines 20
Figure14.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinSingapore 21
Figure15.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinThailand 22
Figure16.FPVtechnicalpotentialcapacityinVietnam 23
ListofTables
Table1.DataAvailabilityforFPVTechnicalPotentialinSEAsia 4
Table2.SelectFPVTechnologyAssumptions 7
Table3.BreakdownofWaterbodyTypesIncludedinFinalDataset 9
Table4.ResultsforallSEAsianCountries 10
Table5.ResultsforIndividualSEAsianCountries 11
1
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1Introduction
SoutheastAsia(SEAsia)isaregionwithgrowingenergydemandandincreasingdevelopmentoffloatingsolarphotovoltaic(FPV)systems.FPVhasemergedasarenewableenergy(RE)optionthatcanhelp
meetcountries’energysecurityandREobjectives,particularlyforthosewithabundantsolarand
reservoirresources.TheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)hasaregionaltargetto
achievea35%shareofREininstalledpowercapacityby2025,andindividualcountrieshavesettheir
ownambitiousREanddecarbonizationobjectives(ASEAN2022).FPVisanincreasinglypopular
solutiontohelpmeetthesegoals,asitcanavoidsomeofthechallengesfacedbyground-mountPVsuchascompetinglanduse,andcantakeadvantageofthesignificantexistingandplannedhydropower
capacityintheregionviaco-locationandhybridization.
Thisstudyusesahigh-levelgeospatialassessmentmethodologytoestimatethetechnicalpotentialforFPVinthe10countrieswithinASEAN,displayedin
Figure1.
Technicalpotentialreferstothe
achievablegenerationfromatechnologygivenvariousenvironmental,topographical,andland-use
constraints.Itprovidesanupper-boundestimateforagivenREresourceandtypicallyprecedesmore
detailedeconomicandmarketpotentialanalyses(Lopezetal.2012).FPVtechnicalpotentialassessmentstypicallycharacterizethesuitablewaterbodyareaforFPVdevelopment(km2),thecapacityofFPVthatcouldbeinstalledonthissuitablearea(measuredinmegawatts(MW)),andtheannualenergythatcouldbegeneratedfromtheseinstallations(measuredingigawatt(GW)hoursperyear(GWh/year)).Thisfirst-of-its-kindupper-boundestimateofFPVtechnicalpotentialforSEAsiacanhelppolicymakers,planners,anddecisionmakersbetterunderstandtherolethatFPVcouldplayinmeetingregionalenergydemand.
Figure1.CountriesincludedintheFPVtechnicalpotentialassessment
ThisreportbeginswithabriefbackgroundonFPVtechnologyandoverviewofrelevantpriorresearch(Section
1.1
andSection
1.2)
.Wethendiscussthemethodologyandassumptionsforthestudy(Section
2)
,aswellasthefindingsforsuitablewaterbodyarea,capacity,andgeneration(Section
3)
.Finally,weconcludewithadiscussionofthedifferentscenariosassessedandtherelevanceoftheseresultsforboth
theentireregionandindividualSEAsiancountries(Section
4)
,alongwithconsiderationsfornextstepsandfuturework(Section
5)
.DetailedcountryresultsareprovidedintheaccompanyingAppendix.
2
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1.1FPVBackground
FPVsystemsareagrowingapplicationofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)inwhichthetechnologyissitedon
waterbodiessuchaslakes,reservoirs,andwatertreatmentponds(AcharyaandDevraj2019).Thesolar
panels,whicharethesameasthoseusedinground-mountorrooftopinstallations,aremountedtofloatingstructuresandcanbeinstalledasstand-alonesystemsorsystemshybridizedwithhydropowerdams
(Figure2)
.MoreinformationonFPVcanbefoundintheFloatingSolarHandbookforPractitioners(WorldBankGroup,EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram,andSolarEnergyResearch
InstituteofSingapore2019).FPVcanhavenumerousbenefitssuchasreducedland-use,increasedeaseofinstallation,reducedwaterevaporation,andincreasedpanelefficiency(Gadzankuetal.2021a).
Figure2.Representativeschematicsofstand-aloneFPV(top)andhybridFPV-hydropower(bottom)systems
Source:Leeetal.(2020)
1.2RelevantPriorResearch
PrevioustechnicalpotentialassessmentsforFPVhavebeenconductedataglobalscale(Leeetal.2020;Jinetal.2023),focusedonspecificcountriesorregionssuchastheUnitedStates(Spenceretal.2019),
Spain(Lopezetal.2022),Brazil(CamposLopesetal.2022),theEuropeanUnion(Kakoulakietal.2023)andAfrica(GonzalezSanchezetal.2021),orfocusedonspecificsites(Agrawaletal.2022;Popaetal.
2021).Thesetechnicalpotentialassessmentsprimarilyfocusonartificialwaterbodies–mainly
3
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hydropowerreservoirs,withsomefocusonnon-hydropowerreservoirs(e.g.,otherartificialwaterbodiessuchasdrinkingwaterreservoirsorwatertreatmentponds).Hydropowerreservoirsarepromisingsites
forFPVdevelopmentduetoexistingelectricgridinfrastructureandvariousoperationalbenefits,suchaslowerPVcurtailmentwhentransmissioniscongestedandmoreoptimaluseoflimitedwaterresources
(Gadzankuetal.2022).TherehasbeenalimitedfocusonFPVsitedonnaturalwaterbodiessuchas
inlandlakes,partlyduetoconcernsaboutpotentialecologicalimpacts(Exleyetal.2022).Recently,therehasalsobeenmoredevelopmentofFPVsitedoffshoreornearshoreinsaltwater(Voetal.2021).
TheFPVtechnologyinthesepriorassessmentshasbeengenerallylimitedtofixed-tiltmonofacialpanels.However,thereisgrowingresearchandinterestintoFPVsystemsthatutilizebifacialpanelandtrackingtechnologies(HasanandDincer2020;Widayatetal.2020;Ziaretal.2020),bothofwhichhavebecomeincreasinglycommonintheland-basedsolarPVindustry.Bifacialpanelscanabsorbsunlightfrombothsides,therebyincreasingthepoweroutputofthePVinstallation.Trackingtechnologies,whichcanbe1-axisor2-axis,allowthepanelstoadjusttheirtiltandorientationthroughoutthedayinordertomaximizesolarirradiationexposureandconsequentlyenergyproduction.
Duetolimitedlandavailability,substantialpre-existingandplannedhydropowerdevelopment,abundantREresources,andambitiousREtargets,SEAsiancountrieshavesignificantinterestinFPV.Several
countriesintheregion,includingIndonesia,Vietnam,andThailand,aredeployingbothstand-aloneand
hybridFPVsystems.However,barrierstoFPVdeploymentintheregionremain.Theseinclude
economic,environmental,cultural,regulatory,ortechnicalbarriersthatpotentialadoptersmayface(Gadzankuetal.2021b).
ThisstudybuildsoffpreviousresearchbyconductinganFPVtechnicalpotentialassessmentforSEAsia
andexpandingthewaterbodytypesconsideredbyincludingnon-hydropowerreservoirsandinland
naturalwaterbodies,inadditiontohydropowerreservoirs.ThisstudyalsoexpandstheFPVtechnology
typesconsideredbyincludingbifacialPVpanelsinadditiontomonofacialpanels.Finally,thestudyuseshightemporalandspatialresolutionsolarirradiancedataspecificallydevelopedfortheSEAsiaregion
thatwasnotavailableforprevioustechnicalpotentialassessments
(Figure3)
.ThisstudydoesnotconductaneconomicanalysisofFPV,thoughFPVsystemcostestimatesforselectcountriesandtheUnited
StatescanbefoundinChopraandSagardoy(2021)andRamasamyandMargolis(2021),respectively.
Figure3.High-resolutionsolarresourcedataavailableforSEAsia
Source:Maclaurinetal.(2022)
4
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2Methods
2.1DataCollection
Thisstudyrequireddataonwaterbodies,supportinginfrastructure,andenergyresources.WebuiltoffthedatagapassessmentconductedinLeeetal.(2020),narrowingthegeographicscopetofocusonSEAsiaandexpandingthewaterbodyscopetoincludenon-hydropowerreservoirs(e.g.,reservoirsforagriculture,drinkingwater,recreation,orotherpurposesnotrelatedtoelectricitygeneration)andnaturalwaterbodies(e.g.,lakes),inadditiontohydropowerreservoirs(i.e.,reservoirsusedforelectricitygeneration).Wealsousedupdateddatasetswhereavailable.
Table1
summarizestheinputsandthedatasourcesused.
Table1.DataAvailabilityforFPVTechnicalPotentialAssessmentinSEAsia
Input
Data
Available?
DataSource(s)Used
CountriesCovered
DataProvided
Waterbodies
Hydropowerreservoirs
Yes
GlobalReservoirand
DamDatabase(GRanD)
ASEAN
Spatiallocationandextentofwaterbody
Non-hydropowerreservoirs
Yes
GranD
ASEAN
Spatiallocationandextentofwaterbody
Natural
waterbodies
Yes
HydroLAKESDatabase
ASEAN
Spatiallocationandextentofwaterbody
Bathymetry
No
N/A
N/A
Waterbodydepth,includingseasonalvariations
Sedimentation
No
N/A
N/A
Rateofsedimentdepositstoestimatesite’sFPVviability
Waves
No
N/A
N/A
Waveheightandfrequencytoestimateimpactonpanels
Wind
No
N/A
N/A
Windspeedanddirectiontoestimatewindloadsonpanels
Protectedareas
Yes
REDataExplorer
ASEAN
Nationalparks,conservationareas,wildlifesanctuaries,etc.
SupportingInfrastructure
Transmissionlines
Yes
REDataExplorer,
StimsonMekong
InfrastructureTracker
Cambodia,Laos,Myanmar,the
Philippines,
Thailand,Vietnam
Spatiallocationsoftransmissionnetwork
Majorroads
Yes
REDataExplorer
ASEAN
Spatiallocationsofmajorroads
EnergyResource
Solarresource
Yes
REDataExplorer
ASEAN
Globalhorizontalirradiance,directnormalirradiance,etc.
Waterresource
No
N/A
N/A
Historicalannualvariationsinwaterresourceacrossseasons
Dataonprotectedareas,transmissionlines,majorroads,andsolarresourcesareaggregatedfromvarious
5
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primarysourcesandcanbedownloadedfromREDataExplorer,ageospatialvisualizationandanalysis
tooldevelopedbyUSAIDandNREL.AdditionaltransmissionlinedataissourcedfromtheMekong
InfrastructureTracker(StimsonCenter2020).Dataonhydropowerandnon-hydropowerreservoirsis
fromtheGlobalReservoirandDamDatabase(GDW2019),anddataonnaturalwaterbodiesisfromtheHydroLAKESDatabase(Messageretal.2016).TheGlobalReservoirandDamDatabase(GranD)is
consideredtohavereliabledataonreservoirprimaryuse,althoughthequalityofattributedataonthetypeofreservoircanvarysignificantlyacrosscountriesandtheGranDdatasetmightnotaligncompletelywith
othersourcesofdataonwaterbodiessuchastheMekongInfrastructureTracker.However,weusedthisdatasettoremainconsistentwiththemethodologyinLeeetal.(2020)andbecauseitcoversallthe
ASEANcountries.
Datanotavailableincludewindandwaveinformation,bathymetry,seasonalvariationinwaterlevels,and
sedimentationdataforallwaterbodytypes,alongwithtransmissiondataforcertaincountries.The
analysisdidnotconsiderreservoirattributesindetail,whichcanbeafocusoffutureanalysis.Thesolarresourcedataisbasedoffsatellitemeasurementsandisavailablefrom2015–2019,witha10-minute
temporalresolutionanda2kmx2kmspatialresolution.DetailsonhowthisdatasetwasdevelopedcanbefoundinMaclaurinetal.(2022).
2.2ScenarioDevelopment
Basedontheavailabledata
(Table1)
anddiscussionswithvariousstakeholders,wedevelopedscenariosforthetechnicalpotentialassessmentusingdifferentcombinationsofwaterbodytypesandFPV
technologies.Twodifferentwaterbodytypes(reservoirsandnaturalinlandwaterbodies)arepairedwithtwodifferentFPVtechnologytypes(fixedtilt:monofacialandfixedtilt:bifacial)foratotaloffour
technicalpotentialscenarios.Reservoirsincludebothhydropowerandnon-hydropowerreservoirs.A
summaryofthewaterbodyandFPVtechnologytypesincludedandexcludedfromthescenariosisdisplayedin
Figure4.
Figure4.WaterbodyandFPVtechnologytypesincludedinanalysisscenarios
FPVinstallations,whichtypicallyusemonofacialpanels,areanemergingapplicationforbifacial
technology.Ifbifacialpanelsareused,thedownward-facingpanelcancatchsunlightthatisreflectedoffthesurfaceofthewaterorthefloatingplatform,whichcouldpotentiallybeamplifiedwithinstalled
reflectivedevices,thusincreasingtheelectricityoutputoftheFPVplant(HasanandDincer2020;
Widayatetal.2020;Ziaretal.2020).FPVdevelopersusuallyseektominimizethesizeandcostofthefloatingplatformbyincreasingthepowerdensityoftheinstallation.Usingbifacialpanels,alongwithpackingthepanelsmoretightly,couldhelpaccomplishthisobjective.Generally,themodulepricesfor
6
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bifacialPVpanelsarehigherthanthatofmonofacialpanels.Forinstance,ananalysisbyCleanEnergy
Associatesestimatesthatabifacialmodule’spricecouldbeapproximately3.3%higherthanamonofacialmodule’sprice(Balyon2021).ExactpricedifferencesdependonthePVpanelmanufacturerandthe
country.Furtheranalysisisneededtoassessthetrade-offsbetweenincreasedgenerationversusincreasedmodulepriceforbifacialPVcomparedtomonofacialPVpanels.Suchatechno-economicanalysisis
beyondthescopeofthisreport.
One-axistrackingFPVwasexcludedfromthescenariosfollowingdiscussionswithstakeholders,who
generallyviewedthistechnologyaslessrelevantfortheSEAsiaregionbasedongeographicandcost
considerations(i.e.,one-axistrackingPVtechnologyprovidesasmallerincreaseinenergyproduction
overfixed-tiltPVinregionsclosertotheequatorcomparedtoregionsfurtherfromtheequator,andthissmallerincreaseinenergyproductionmightnotbeenoughtooffsettheincreasedcapitalcostsoftrackingsystems).OffshoreFPVwasexcludedfromthescenariosduetoalackofbothsufficientdataandan
establishedmethodologyforassessingitstechnicalpotential.However,offshoreFPVtechnicalpotentialcouldbeanareaforfutureresearchgiventhatitisanemergingtechnologywithgrowinginterestintheregion.
2.3TechnicalPotentialCalculation
ThissectiondescribesthemethodologyusedforcalculatingFPVtechnicalpotential.Theresultsfromthisassessment,foreachofthescenariosdescribedinSection
2.2,
arepresentedinSection
3.
2.3.1FPVSuitableArea
Inthedataset,weexcludewaterbodiesinprotectedareasandmakeassumptionsaboutthearea
developableforFPVbasedondistancesfromtheshoreandmajorroads,andinsomecases,transmissionlines.Thoughwaterbodiesinprotectedareascouldsometimesdifferfromprotectedwaterbodies,wedidnothavesufficientdatatodistinguishbetweenthetwoandwethustreatthemasequivalentintheinterestofcaution.Forallwaterbodytypes,weapplysensitivitiesforminimum(0,50,and100m)andmaxim
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