麥肯錫-什么是凈零？What is net zero 2024

Mcsey

&company

McKinseyExplainers

Whatisnetzero?

NetzeroisanidealstatewheretheamountofgreenhousegasesreleasedintotheEarth’satmosphereisequaltotheamount

removed.Emissionremovalandreductionthroughdecarbonizationeffortsareneededtoreachnetzero.

October2024

Anet-zerogainofgreenhousegases(GHG)intheatmospherewouldbeachievedwhenthelevel

ofGHGemissionsreleasedintotheatmosphereisequaltothelevelofemissionsthatareremoved.

Thisisalsoreferredtoas“carbonneutrality.”

OneofthemostcommonGHGs,CO?,isfoundintheEarth’satmosphereand,alongwithnitrogen,

oxygen,

methane

,andothergases,ispartoftheplanet’sair.

CO?helpstrapheat

onEarth,likeagreenhousetrapsheattogrowtomatoesincoldclimates.Buttoomuchofitcancauseproblems,

suchasheatwavesandoceanacidification.It

occursbothnaturallyandasabyproductofhumanactivities,suchasburningfossilfuels.

Today,theworldisundertakingthenet-zero

transition,anambitiousefforttoreachnet-zeroemissionsofCO?andreduceemissionsof

otherGHGs.ThegoalofthetransitionisoutlinedintheParisAgreementadoptedattheUnited

Nationsin2015:tolimitglobalwarmingabovepreindustriallevelstowellbelow2.0°Cand

ideallyto1.5°C.

Accomplishingthiswouldavoidthemostcatastrophiceffectsofapermanentlywarmerplanet.Atpresent,theworldisnotontracktoachievethisgoal.Readontolearnmoreaboutwhatnetzeromeansand

what’srequiredtorealizeit.

Learnmoreabout

McKinseySustainability.

Whatisdecarbonization?

Decarbonizationisthemitigation,cessation,or

reductionofcarbonintheatmosphere.It’sachievedbyswitchingtoenergysourcesormaterialsthat

emitlesscarbon(andoften,bymovingawayfrom

high-carbon-emittingfossilfuels)andbycounteractingthecarbonthat’semitted.

Limitingtheriseinglobaltemperatureto

1.5°C

abovepreindustriallevels

bycurbingthebuildupofatmosphericGHGswillbenecessarytoprevent

catastrophicconsequences.Manycompanies,

countries,andinstitutionshavepledgedto

decarbonize,ortomakethe

net-zerotransition

,incomingyears.

Sevenenergyandland-usesystems(power,

industry,mobility,buildings,agriculture,forestry,

andwaste)areheavyGHGemitters,andallof

themwillneedtoundergotransformation.Theywillalsoneedtotransitionconcurrently,giventheir

interdependencies.Butinothercases,individualsandorganizationscansettheirownnet-zero

aspirationsbychoosinglow-carbonalternativestofossilfuels(suchassolarand

windpower

)and

removingexcesscarbonfromtheatmosphere.

Circularity

,orthereductionofwastebyreusingexistingmaterials,canalsobeasignificant

leverofdecarbonization.

It’snotfullyfeasibletoreducecarbonemissionstozero.Thewideimplementationof

carbonremoval

andlong-termstorage

willthusbenecessarytohalttheprogressionofglobalwarming.

Whatwouldanet-zerotransitioninvolve?

McKinsey’sresearchsimulatesonehypothetical,

orderlypathtoward1.5°C,basedonthe

NetZero

2050scenario

fromtheNetworkforGreening

theFinancialSystem(NGFS).Thisscenarioincludesanestimateoftheeconomiccostsandsocietal

adjustmentsrequiredtoachievenetzero,and

McKinseyanalysissuggestssixcharacteristicsthatwould

definesuchaglobaltransitiontonetzero

:

—Universal.Allenergyandland-usesystems

wouldneedtobetransformed.Thiswouldaffecteverycountryandeverysectoroftheeconomyeitherdirectlyorindirectly.

—Significant.Theannualspendingonphysical

assetswouldneedtorisefrom$3.5trilliontodayto$9.2trillionby2050.Totalspendingthrough2050couldreach$275trillion.

—Front-loaded.Thespendingonphysicalassetscouldbemoresignificantintheearlystages

oftheshift,likelyrisingtoalmost9percentof

globalGDPin2026–30(comparedwithjust

under7percentin2022)beforefalling.Likewise,electricitycostscouldincreaseover2020

levelsforatimebeforetheystabilizedorpotentiallydecreased.

Whatisnetzero?2

—Uneven.Sectorsthatrepresentabout

20percentoftheglobaleconomywouldseethemosteconomicexposuretothetransition.Developingcountriesandfossil-fuel-rich

regionswouldalsobeespeciallysusceptibletochangesinoutput,capitalstock,and

employmentbecausehighlyexposed

sectorsmakeuprelativelylargepartsoftheireconomies.

—Exposedtorisks.Atransitioninwhich

high-emissionassetsareretiredbeforelow-

emissionassetscometomarketcouldlead

tovolatileenergysupplyandpricesifitweren’tmanagedcarefully.

—Richinopportunity.Thenet-zerotransition

wouldcreatenewefficienciesandnewmarketsforlow-emissionproducts.

Learnmoreabout

McKinseySustainability.

Whereareweintheenergytransition?

Theenergytransitionisinitsearlystages.The

productionandconsumptionofenergyaccountsfor

morethan85percent

ofglobalCO?emissions.Sotheadoptionoflow-emissiontechnologies

(includingsolarandwindpowerandelectric

vehicles)andofabroaderlow-emissionenergysystemiscriticaltoachievingnetzeroby2050.

Todate,about10percentoftherequired

deploymentoflow-emissiontechnologieshasbeenachieved.Advancingthetransitionwillrequire

faster

deploymentandadoption

ofseveral

interrelatedlow-emissiontechnologies(includingrenewable-energysources,electrification

technologies,andheatpumps),aswellaslessmaturetechnologies(suchas

carboncapture,

utilization,andstorage

[CCUS];

greenandblue

hydrogen

;and

sustainablefuels

).

Eachofthe

s

evendomainsoftheenergysystem

willneedtobetransformedtoachievenetzeroby2050.Here’sanoverviewoftherequirementsforeach:

—Power.Addressingphysicalchallengesto

emissionabatementinpowerisfundamentaltotheentireenergytransition.That’sbecause

abatingemissionsinthesectorsthatconsumethemostenergy—mobility,industry,and

buildings—willrequireasweepingshifttowardelectrification.Managingthegrowthofwind

andsolarpowerwillbecrucialhere.

—Mobility.Theenergytransitionrequiresthe

decarbonizationoftransportation,including

cars,trucks,aviation,andshipping.There

remainfundamentalperformancegapsbetweenelectricvehiclesandinternalcombustion

enginesinlonger-rangemobility,includingtrucking,aviation,andshipping.

—Industry.Fossilfuelsarecriticaltothefour

materialpillarsofmoderncivilization:steel,

cement,plastic,andammonia.Decarbonizationofthesefourindustrieswillbeamajor

challenge.Otherindustrieswillbemarginallylesschallengingbutwillstillrequireextensiveretrofittingofexistingindustrialsites.

—Buildings.Heatingaccountsforthelargest

shareofemissionsfrombuildings.Heatpumpsareasolutionhere:accordingtotheMcKinsey

2023AchievedCommitmentsscenario,theycouldprovidemostoftheheatrequiredby

buildingsby2050.Thechallengeshereincludeensuringthatheatpumpsperformwell

enoughinthecoldestgeographiesand

managingtheimpactofpeakdemandonheatpumpperformance.

—Rawmaterials.Lithium,cobalt,andselect

rareearthmineralsarecriticalinscalingthelow-emissiontechnologiesthatareneededto

decarbonizemultiplesectors.Thechallengehereisensuringthatthesemineralscanbeunearthedquicklyenoughtomeetdemand.

—Hydrogenandotherenergycarriers.Hydrogenandbiofuelswillbeneededtodecarbonizemanydomains.Scalingtothenecessaryextentwill

Whatisnetzero?3

requiresignificantlanduse(forbiofuels)andnewinfrastructure(inthecaseofhydrogen).

—Carbonandenergyreduction.Replacinghigh-emissiontechnologieswithlow-emission

technologiesisimportant.Butreducingoverallenergyconsumption—alongwithcapturing

thereducedamountofCO?that’sstillemitted—willalsobevitaltoasuccessfultransition.

CCUS

willrequirefurthertechnologicaladvancementsandthescalingupoftechnologiesthatmay

notevenexisttoday.

Whatisclimatetechnology?

Climatetechnology

isanytechnologythatworks

toreduceemissionsoraddresstheeffectsof

globalwarming.Itinvolvesmanysubcategoriesof

use,allaimedatachievingnetzeroandtransitioningoperationstoagreenerstate.Someofthat

abatementtechnologyisstillintheR&Dstage,

butMcKinseyestimatesthat

60percent

of

theemissionabatementthat’snecessarytoreachnetzerointheEuropeanUnionwillcomefrom

widelydeployingproventechnologies.

Investmentinclimatetechnologiesis

growing

quickly

.GovernmentprogramsinEuropeandthe

UnitedStatesareunleashingafloodofcapital

tomeetthechallengeofachievingnetzeroby2050.The

USInflationReductionAct

,passedin2022,

allocatesmorethan$370billioninfundingto

mitigateclimatechange.TheEUGreenDealcoulddedicatemorethan€1trillioninpublicandprivate

funds.Takentogether,thesemeasurescouldopenmoreopportunitiesforinvestorsinamarketthat

McKinseyestimatescouldreachupto$12trillioninannualinvestmentby2030.

McKinseyanalysissuggeststhat

12categoriesof

climatetechnologies

couldpotentiallyreduce

asmuchas90percentoftotalmanmadeGHGemissions,iftheyarescaledtogether:

—Batteries.Thelifetimeemissionsof

electric

vehicle

srelyingonlithium-ionbatteries

areasmuchas85percentlowerthanthoseofvehicleswithinternalcombustionengines.

—

CCUS.

CCUStechnologiescaptureCO?emittedbyindustrialprocessesatpointsources,then

transport,convert,andstoreitoverthelongterm.

—

Circulartechnologies.

Thesetechnologies

coverarangeofapproachesthataimtoreduceemissionsfrommaterialsovertheirlife

spanswhilesimultaneouslymaximizingtheirlifetimevalue.

—Energystorage.Thiswillbeneededas

renewableenergiesscaleup.Thetechnologiesincludelithium-ionbatterysystemsforshort-

termenergystorageandlonger-durationenergystoragesystems.

—Engineeredcarbonremovals.Theseremovalscoverarangeoftechnology-basedmethodsofremovingatmosphericCO?.

—Heatpumps.Theseareupto4.5timesmoreefficientthangasfurnacesandboilers.

—

Hydrogen.

Hydrogenoffersdeepdecarbonization

forhard-to-abatesectors,suchassteel,cement,andchemicals,whichcurrentlyaccountforabout20percentofglobalemissions.

—Nuclearfissiontechnologies.Thesetechnologiesarecommerciallymature:440reactorscurrentlyprovideabout10percentofglobalelectricity

generation.Thechallengestofuturescaling

includehighconstructioncostsandunresolvedquestionsoflong-termstorage.

—Renewables.Renewable-powercapacity

almostdoubledbetween2015and2020.Most

energyproductiontechnologiesthatuse

renewableresourcesarealreadytechnologically

mature.Solarphotovoltaicsand

onshoreand

offshorewindturbines

havedemonstratedthegreatestgrowthandthemostsuccessful

effortstoscalebutarestillnotgrowingasfastasneededtohit2030targets.

—

Sustainablefuels.

These,aswellasotheralternativestofossilfuels,areneededto

decarbonizehard-to-abatetransportation

Whatisnetzero?4

sectorsthataccountformorethan15percentoftoday’stotalglobalemissions.

—TechnologiessupportingNCS.Thesesolutionsremovecarbonfromtheatmosphereandcanalsopreventemissionsfrombeingproduced.They

includeterrestrialecosystems,aswellascarbonremovalsandreductionsonagriculturallands.

—Technologiestoproducealternativeproteins

forhumanconsumption.Around15percentof

currentglobalemissionscomefromthe

productionofanimal-basedproteins,such

asmeat,dairy,eggs,andaquaculture.

Alternativeproteinsincludeplant-basedproteins,microorganism-basedfermentedproteins,and

cell-cultivatedproteins

fromanimalcellsthataremadeusingbioreactorsandcentrifuges.

Climatetechnologyhelpsexistingprocesses

becomelesscarbonintensiveandcanactively

preventatmosphericemissionsorremovecarbonfromtheatmosphere.Therehavebeensome

importantstridesinclimatetechnologyinthepastdecade—forexample,thecostofsomerenewable-energyprojectshasdroppedby

almost90percent

.Withcapitalincreasingandsomegovernments

alreadyprovidingfiscalsupportforlow-carbon

innovation,there’salotofpotentialinclimatetechnology,evenifthenet-zerochallenge

isformidable.

Howwillindustriesachievenetzerothroughdecarbonization?

Eachindustryandcompanyis

subjecttodifferent

factors

indecarbonizingitsoperations.Socompaniesthatarelookingtodecarbonizewillwanttoopt

fortheapproachesthatbestsuittheirneedsand

context.Here’salookattheworld’shighest-

emittingsectors;together,theyaccountforabout85percentofglobalGHGemissions:

—Fossilfuels.Thecombustionoffossilfuels

produces83percentofglobalCO?emissions.Inthepursuitofdecarbonization,fossilfuelplayersarefocusingonenergyefficiency,electrification,

themanagementoffugitivemethaneemissions(methanelossesfromleaks),andmore.More

specifically,oilandgascompaniesare

making

thelow-carbontransition

byworkingseverallevers,includingtransformingintodiversifiedenergyplayers.

—Power.

Decarbonizingthepowersector

will

requirephasingoutpowergenerationfrom

fossilfuelsandaddingcapacityforlow-emissionpowersources.

—Mobility.Roadtransportationaccountsfor

three-quarters

ofallmobilityemissions.Effortstodecarbonizeherecouldinvolvereplacing

vehiclesthathaveinternalcombustionengineswithvehiclesthathave

batteryelectricpower

or

hydrogenfuelcells

.

—Industry.

Steel

and

cement

arecorecomponentsofthiscategory,andtogethertheyaccount

forabout14percentofglobalCO?emissions.Decarbonizationeffortsmightinvolve

installingequipmentforcarboncaptureandstorageandswitchingtoprocessesorfuelswithloweremissions.

—Buildings.

Decarbonizingbuildingsandthereal-

estatesector

willinvolveimprovingenergy

efficiency(forinstance,throughmoreefficientinsulation)andreplacingheatingandcooking

equipmentthatarepoweredbyfossilfuelswithlow-emissionsystems(seesidebar,“How

canmachinelearningandAIhelporganizationsdecarbonizetheirbuildings?”).

—Agricultureandfood.Using

GHG-efficient

farmingpractices

canhelpreduceagricultureemissions,ascanchangesataconsumerlevel—forexample,ifpeopleeatlessmeat.

—Forestryandlanduse.CO?emissionsin

thissectoroftencomefromlandclearinganddeforestation.Whatcancurtailthese

emissions?Effortscouldinclude

preventing

deforestation

andinvestinginnatural

climatesolutions(NCS),whichcanbeanetsinkforemissions.

Whatisnetzero?5

HowcanmachinelearningandAIhelporganizationsdecarbonizetheirbuildings?

Therealestateindustryaccountsfor

about

40percent

ofglobalcombustion-relatedemissions,aquarterofwhichcomefrom

buildingoperations.Thismeansthatmostoftheemissionscomefromrunning

buildings,asopposedtobuildingthem.

Organizationsintherealestatesectorareincreasinglyturningtheirattentionto

decarbonization,asthepressureonthembyinvestorsandgovernmentalbodiestoaddresstheircarbonfootprintsincreases.Butdoneright,decarbonizationcanbea

driverofvalue

.InthecaseofVentas,arealestateinvestmenttrustandS&P500

company,achievingoperationalnetzero

(Scope1and2emissions

)willresultin

lowerenergyandmaintenancecostsandmoreresilientassets,amongother

benefits.Ventasrecentlyannounceditsintentionto

achieveoperationalnetzero

by2040.

Inthepast,realestatecompanieshave

approacheddecarbonizationina

coupleof

stages

.First,theysendanengineerto

eachbuildingtoassessconditionsattheproperty.Second,theyimplementthe

recommendedefficiencymeasures.Fororganizationswithmanybuildingsin

theirportfolios,thistraditionalmethodwouldtakeyearsandsignificantcosttoaccomplish.

Ventaswantedtotryanovel,tech-enabledapproach.AccordingtoKellyMeissner,itsvicepresidentforcorporateenvironmental,social,andgovernanceissuesand

sustainability,theorganizationsupplied

datatoanAI-poweredtoolthatcould

“createdetailedanduniqueplansforeachofour800orsobuildings....Thetoolthenapplieda

machinelearningalgorithm

to...[produce]theequivalentofauniqueenergyauditforeachbuilding.Thenit

createdadetaileddescriptionofhoweachbuildingcouldachieveourgoals,includingeachstepwehadtotakeforthatbuilding,thecostofthatstep,andtheenergyit

wouldsave.”

AccordingtoMcKinseypartner

Brodie

Boland

,thisapproachhasmajorpotentialforsavingbothtimeandcosts:“These

machinelearningtoolscan...basically

do

theequivalent

ofwhatbeforehadtobe

donethroughamanualenergyaudit.”

—Newenergysectors(hydrogenandbiofuels).Therewillbealotofopportunitiestoexpand

low-emissionenergytechnologies.Andevenifexpandingcapacityandinfrastructurefor

low-carbonfuelsrequiresadditionalcapital

spendingof$230billionperyearthrough

2050,thehydrogenandbiofuelssectors

could

createaroundtwomillionjobs

bythen.

LearnmoreaboutMcKinsey’s

Agriculture

,

Automotive&Assembly

,

ElectricPower&Natural

Gas

,

Oil&Gas

,and

RealEstate

Practices.

Howcanbusinessleaderscreatevalueinthenet-zerotransition?

Asthemomentumtowardnetzeroaccelerates,investors,customers,andregulatorshave

raisedtheirexpectationsforcompanies.

Nearly

90percent

ofemissionsarenowtargetedfor

reductionundernet-zerocommitments,andfinancialinstitutionsresponsibleformorethan$130trillion

ofcapitalhavepledgedthattheywillmanagetheseassetsalonga1.5°Ccommitmentpathway.

Putsimply,companiescan’tthriveinaworldwithcascadingcrisesandunmanageableclimaterisk.

Leadingcompaniescansetanexampleby

demonstratingwhat’spossibleandgeneratingfurthermomentum.

Somecompaniesarealreadytakingadvantageofthenet-zeroopportunityathand.Afteranalyzingtheirapproaches,

fourtacticsstandout

:

—transformingbusinessportfolios,givingspecialattentiontoindustrysegmentswithserious

growthpotential

Whatisnetzero?6

—buildinggreenbusinessesthatenablethepenetrationofnewmarkets

—differentiatingthemselvesfromcompetitors

withgreenproductsandnewvaluepropositionsinrelevantsegmentsofexistingmarkets—

allofwhichcanhelpgainmarketshareandpricepremiums

—decarbonizingtheiroperationsandexistingsupplychains

Forbusinessleaderslookingtogoontheoffense,

McKinseyhasidentified11high-potentialvalue

poolsthatcouldbeworthuptomorethan$12trillionofyearlyrevenuesby2030(formore,read“

Playing

offensetocreatevalueinthenet-zerotransition

”).

Docompaniesneedtodecarbonizetheirsupplychains?

Yes,companiesneedtodecarbonizetheirsupply

chains.Companiesincreasinglyrecognizetheneedtoreduceemissionsthatoccurintheirupstreamordownstreamvaluechains,whicharealsoreferredtoas“

Scope3emissions

.”Formanycompanies,as

muchas90percentoftheirclimateimpactcomesfromScope3emissions(ratherthanfrom

Scope1

andScope2emissions

,whichareproducedby

companieseitherdirectlyorindirectlythroughtheirpurchaseofenergy).ButtargetingScope3

emissionswillbechallenging.Herearefiveissuesthatcompaniesneedtoaddresstomake

supply

chaindecarbonization

happen:

—alackofcarbon-accountingfoundations

—overrelianceonsecondarydataforScope3emissions

—uncertaintyoverthecostandtechnicalfeasibilityofcarbonreductionlevers

—theneedforindustry-widecollaborationtoaddressmanysourcesofemissions

—theneedforsustainedengagementfromboth

internalandexternalstakeholdersinlong-term-changeprograms

McKinseyhas

pledgedtoreachnet-zero

climateimpactasafirmby2030.Formorein-depth

explorationofdecarbonizationandnetzero,see

McKinseySustainability’sinsights

.Learnhow

McKinseySustainabilityhelpsclients

,includingworkwith

decarbonizationtransformations

and

net-zeroandenvironmental,social,and

governancestrategies

—andcheckout

sustainability-relatedjobopportunities

ifyou’reinterestedinworkingatMcKinsey.

Articlesreferenced:

—“

GlobalEnergyPerspective2024

,”September17,2024

—“

Theenergytransition:Wherearewe,really?

,”August27,2024,

DiegoHernandezDiaz

,

HumayunTai

,and

ThomasHundertmark

,withMichielNivardandNicolaZanardi

—“

Thehardstuff:Navigatingthephysicalrealities

oftheenergytransition

,”McKinseyGlobal

Institute,August14,2024,

MekalaKrishnan

,

ChrisBradley

,

HumayunTai

,TiagoDevesa,

SvenSmit

,and

DanielPacthod

—“

Whatwouldittaketoscalecriticalclimate

technologies?

,”December1,2023,

BerndHeid

,

MartinLinder

,SebastianMayer,AnnaOrthofer,and

MarkPatel

—

“Anaffordable,reliable,competitivepathtonet

zero

,”November30,2023,

MekalaKrishnan

,

HumayunTai

,

DanielPacthod

,

SvenSmit

,

Tomas

Nauclér

,BlakeHoughton,

JesseNoffsinger

,

andDirkSimon

—“

Theroleofpublic–private–philanthropic

partnershipsindrivingclimateandnature

transitions

,”November20,2023,Hamid

Samandari,

DanielPacthod

,ShallyVenugopal,

MekalaKrishnan

,

TracyNowski

,

AdamKendall

,JaredGoodman,andPiersRosholt

—“

GlobalEnergyPerspective2023

,”O(jiān)ctober18,2023

Whatisnetzero?7

Findmorecontentlikethisonthe

McKinseyInsightsApp

Scan?Download?Personalize

—“

Climateinvesting:Continuingbreakoutgrowth

throughuncertaintimes

,”March13,2023,

Fredrik

Dahlqvist

,