金融學(xué)（第四版）課件：The Process of Monetary Policy Formulation

TheProcessofMonetaryPolicyFormulation

2ThePolicyProcessPolicygoalsandexpectedeconomicperformanceguidepolicyactionsthesepolicyactionsinturnalterspending,saving,borrowing,andlendingdecisions3AConceptualOverviewoftheMacroeconomicPolicyProcessPolicyGoalsStablePricesSustainableGDPGrowthFullEmploymentSatisfactoryExternalBalanceAlterSpendingSavingBorrowingLendingGuidePolicyActionsAlterExpectedEconomicPerformanceAlter4ThePolicyProcessAssumethatpolicymakershaveestablishedgoalsandnumericalobjectivesThenextstepistodeterminethelikelyperformanceoftheeconomyifpolicyremainsunchangedusevariousstatisticalmethodsandmodels,judgmentbasedonhistoricalexperience,andincomingdataonthefactorsaffectingaggregatedemandandsupply5ThePolicyProcessPolicymakerswillthendevelopforecastsofrealGDPinflationtheunemploymentrateexchangeratesIfthedatasuggestthattheeconomy’sperformanceisdeviatingsignificantlyfromthegoals,policymakerswillconsiderachangeinpolicy6CurrentConditionsvs.ForecastsForecastingisanimperfectsciencethegreaterthevolatilityineconomicvariables,thelargertheerrorstendtobepolicymakerstypicallydonotgiveheavyweighttoforecastsinpolicydiscussionsThereisastrongtendencytofocusonincomingdataof“currenteconomicconditions”attractmoremediaattention7AssessingtheEconomicSituationAsdatareportsareissued,policymakersaskthemselvestwoquestionsarethedataconsistentwithoureconomicoutlookanddesiressonopolicyisneeded?arethedatasignalingthattheeconomy’sperformancehasdeviatedfromwhatwasexpectedsoweshouldconsiderachangeinpolicy?8AssessingtheEconomicSituationTheprocessofassessingincomingdataiscomplicatedbecausemanymonthlydatareleasesarequitevolatile(noisy)theserandomfluctuationsinthedatamakethemunreliableaspolicyindicatorsitisoftennecessarytohavedatafor2or3monthsonhandtodetermineatrendnoiseinindividualseriesmayalsoleadtoconflictingconclusions9AssessingtheEconomicSituationIftheeconomyisinfactdeviatingfromitsexpectedtrack,itwillusuallytakeseveralmonthsbeforetheambiguitiesinthemonthlydataareresolvedpolicymakersneedtimetorecognizethatachangeintheeconomy’sperformancehasoccurredthisiscalledtherecognitionlaginthepolicymakingprocess10FromAssessmenttoActionOncepolicymakersdeterminethatactionisneeded,theymustthendecidewhatexactlyneedstobedonewhatpolicytoolsshouldbeused?howlarge(orsmall)shouldtheadjustmentbe?whenshouldthispolicychangetakeplace?11FromAssessmenttoActionResolvingthesequestionstakestimeThus,thepolicymakingprocessincludesapolicylag

thetimebetweenthepointintimewhentheneedforactionisrecognizedandthepointwhenanadjustmentpolicyisdecideduponandsetinmotion12FromActiontoEffectThepolicyactionwillsetinmotionaseriesofadjustmentsintheeconomythatwillgraduallyaltertheperformanceoftheeconomyHistoricalexperiencesuggeststhatthisprocessisgradualratherthaninstantaneous13FromActiontoEffectThenetresultisanimpactlagthetimebetweenwhenanactionistakenandwhenthatactionhasasignificantimpactonprices,employment,andoutput14LagsinthePolicyProcessTimeRecognitionLagImpactLagPolicymakersdecidewhattodo.PolicyLagDAchangeintheeconomyoccurs.AThechangeisrecognized.BPolicymakersact.C15PitfallsinPolicyMakingPolicydoesnotalwaysproduceaneconomicperformancethatcloselycoincideswiththenation’seconomicobjectives16UncertaintyandLagsGivenlags,thereislittlethatpolicymakerscandotodaytomateriallyalterthecurrentperformanceoftheeconomywhatpolicymakerscandoisalterthefutureperformanceoftheeconomyThefuturecannotbeknownwithcertaintypolicymakerscannotbecertainwhatshouldbedonetodaytoimprovetheeconomy’sfutureperformance17UncertaintyandLagsThus,policymakersaregenerallyverycautiousinadjustingpolicyButactingorfailingtoacttodaymayaggravateinflationandcyclicalfluctuationslatertheeconomymaybedestabilized18DataRevisionsandPolicyRegretSomedataarebasedonsampleestimatesandmaybesubjecttonumerousrevisionsasmoreaccuratedatacomeavailablePolicyregretoccursifreviseddataestimatessuggestthatsomeothercourseofactionshouldhave(andwouldhave)beentakenifthereviseddatawereavailable19GlobalizationTheeconomiesoftheworldarebecomingmoreinterdependentU.S.policymakershavelesscontrolovertheperformanceoftheU.S.economyasaresultThus,increasedcooperationandcoordinationamongworldpolicymakershasbecomemoreimportant20IntermediateTargetsGiventhecomplexities,uncertainties,andtimelagsassociatedwithpolicy,theFedusesanintermediatetargetapproachtotheformulationandimplementationofpolicyselectsavariablethatisinsomesensemidwaybetweenitspolicyinstrumentsanditsfinalgoalsthisintermediatetargetisthenusedtoguideday-to-dayopenmarketoperations21TheUseofanIntermediateTargetinHittingtheFinalTarget22IntermediateTargetsThebasiccriteriaforselectinganintermediatetargetincludethevariableshouldbereliablyandpredictablyrelatedtothepolicygoalsthevariableshouldberegularlyobservedthevariableshouldbesuchthattheFedcanuseitspolicyinstrumentstoalterthetargetwithareasonabledegreeofprecision23IntermediateTargetsFromthelate1970suntiltheearly1990s,theFedusedthemonetaryaggregatesandDNFDasintermediatetargetssetgrowthtargetratesforseveralaggregatestohedgeitsbetsandtomaintainasflexibleapositionaspossible24IntermediateTargetsTherelationshipsbetweenthemonetaryaggregatesandchangesineconomicactivitybecamelesspredictableinthe1990sSincemid-1993,theFedhasemphasizedinterestratetargetingusesthefederalfundsrateasanoperatingtarget25TheUseofInterestRatesasIntermediateTargetsSupposethattheFedistargetinganinterestrateatagivenlevelandaggregatedemandincreasesthedemandformoneywillrisethisputsupwardpressureontheinterestratetomaintainitsinterestratetarget,theFedwillincreasethesupplyofmoneythiscouldleadtoinflation26MaintaininganInterest

RateTargetInterestRateQuantityofMoneyMSDiTD'MS'27TheUseofInterestRatesasIntermediateTargetsTheFedcaneithercontroleitheraninterestratetargetoramonetaryaggregate,butnotbothSupposethattheFedhasbothamonetaryaggregatetarget(MT)andaninterestratetarget(iT)28MaintaininganInterest

RateTargetInterestRateQuantityofMoneyMSDiTMT29MaintaininganInterest

RateTargetInterestRateQuantityofMoneyMSDiTMTD'Supposethedemandformoneyrises30MaintaininganInterest

RateTargetInterestRateQuantityofMoneyMSDiTD'MTMS'TheFedcanmaintainiTbyincreasingthemoneysupply31MaintaininganInterest

RateTargetInterestRateQuantityofMoneyMSDiTD'MTTheFedcanmaintainMTandlettheinterestraterisetoi

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’32ChangesintheFedFundsTargets(2000-2004)33FederalOpenMarket

CommitteeDecisionsTheFOMCestablisheseconomicprojections(goals)fornominalandrealGDP,unemployment,andinflationatitsmeetingsinFebruaryandJulyeachyearincompliancewiththe1978Humphrey-HawkinsAct,thechairoftheFedreportstheselong-termforecaststoCongress34EconomicProjectionsfor

2004and200535SummaryofMajorPointsIngeneral,acomparisonbetweentheexpectedperformanceoftheeconomyandeconomicgoalsguidespolicyactionspolicymakersestablishprioritiesamongthegoals,developtheexpectedperformanceoftheeconomy,andimplementparticularpolicyactionsiftheeconomy’sperformanceisclosetothegoals,thepolicyislikelytoremainunchanged36SummaryofMajorPointsGiventherelativelylargesizeofforecastingerrors,policymakerstendtofocusonincomingdataandcurrentconditionsinconsideringpolicyadjustmentsThepolicyprocessinvolvesthreelagstherecognitionlagthepolicylagtheimpactlag37SummaryofMajorPointsTheexistenceoflagsinanuncertainworldmakesitdifficultforpolicymakerstoactappropriatelyinatimelyfashiontheiractionstodaymayincreasepriceandcyclicalfluctuationslaterpolicymakerstendtobequitecautiousinadjustingpolicypolicyregretiswhenpolicyactionswouldhavenotbeentakenifdatarevisionswereavailableatthetimethedecisionsaremade38SummaryofMajorPointsThegrowinginterdependenceamongtheworl