產(chǎn)量潛力與產(chǎn)量差研究進(jìn)展及其對(duì)綠色增長(zhǎng)的啟示

產(chǎn)量潛力與產(chǎn)量差研究進(jìn)展及其對(duì)綠色增長(zhǎng)的啟示為什么研究作物產(chǎn)量潛力與產(chǎn)量差？我國(guó)三大作物單產(chǎn)變化（1）作物產(chǎn)量提升空間還有多大？作物和區(qū)域之間有多大差異？（2）限制產(chǎn)量提升的主要技術(shù)途徑等是什么？中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒，2016縮小產(chǎn)量差58%改變飲食結(jié)構(gòu)28%其它途徑（減少儲(chǔ)存損失、浪費(fèi)等）14-94%未來(lái)保證糧食安全的主要途徑進(jìn)一步提高單產(chǎn)是綠色增長(zhǎng)的需求！農(nóng)業(yè)部關(guān)于大力開(kāi)展糧食綠色增產(chǎn)模式攻關(guān)的意見(jiàn)日期：2015-02-04發(fā)布單位：農(nóng)業(yè)部種植業(yè)管理司目標(biāo)任務(wù)：努力實(shí)現(xiàn)“三個(gè)提高”，提高土地產(chǎn)出率，力爭(zhēng)到2020年糧食單產(chǎn)平均每年提高1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率，力爭(zhēng)到2020年重點(diǎn)糧食作物耕種收綜合機(jī)械化率提高10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；提高投入品利用率，力爭(zhēng)到2020年化肥、農(nóng)藥利用率提高到40%以上，農(nóng)田廢舊地膜回收率達(dá)到80%以上。努力實(shí)現(xiàn)“兩個(gè)零增長(zhǎng)”，力爭(zhēng)到2020年，實(shí)現(xiàn)糧食和農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的化肥、農(nóng)藥使用量零增長(zhǎng)。研究進(jìn)展研究概況主要進(jìn)展小麥產(chǎn)量差案例2.主要啟示主要內(nèi)容“Yieldpotential”“Yieldgap”產(chǎn)量潛力和產(chǎn)量差文章發(fā)表統(tǒng)計(jì)46%（基于Webofknowledge數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，2016/08/08）70%文章發(fā)表雜志TopJournalSub-topJournalKeyJournalNatureNatureCommun.FieldCropRes.Agric.Syst.Agron.J.------Annu.Rev.Environ.Resour.GCBCurrentOpinioninEnvironmentalSustainability經(jīng)典文章列單Muelleretal.,2012.Closingyieldgapsthroughnutrientandwatermanagement.Nature490,254-257.Foleyetal.,2011.Solutionsforacultivatedplanet.Nature478,337-342.Grassinietal.,2013.Distinguishingbetweenyieldadvancesandyieldplateausinhistoricalcropproductiontrends.NatureCommunications4,2918.Rayetal.,2012.Recentpatternsofcropyieldgrowthandstagnation.NatureCommunications3,187-190.Lobelletal.,2009.Cropyieldgaps:Theirimportance,magnitudes,andcauses.AnnualReviewofEnvironmentandResources34,179-204.Cuietal.,2013.Closingtheyieldgapcouldreduceprojectedgreenhousegasemissions:acasestudyofmaizeproductioninChina.GlobalChangeBiology19,2467-2477.Liuetal.,2012.MaizepotentialyieldsandyieldgapsinthechangingclimateofnortheastChina.GlobalChangeBiology18,3441-3454.VanIttersumetal.,2013.Yieldgapanalysiswithlocaltoglobalrelevance-areview.FieldCropsResearch143,4-17.Fischeretal.,2015.Definitionsanddeterminationofcropyield,yieldgaps,andofratesofchange.FieldCropsResearch182,9-18.Fischeretal.,2014.Cropyieldsandglobalfoodsecurity—willyieldincreasecontinuetofeedtheworld?In:ACIARMonographNo.158.AustralianCentreforInternationalAgriculturalResearch,Canberra.研究進(jìn)展研究概況主要進(jìn)展小麥產(chǎn)量差案例2.主要啟示主要內(nèi)容（1）相關(guān)概念界定進(jìn)一步清晰YIELDGAPVanIttersumandRabbinge,1997DefinitionsYieldpotential(Potentialyield)-Yp:yieldofacropcultivarunderdefinedweatherconditions,whengrownwithnonutrientandwaterstressandbioticstresseseffectivelycontrolledWater-limitedyield-Yw:sameasYp,butwatersupplyislimiting(andhencesoiltypeandtopographymatter)Actualyield–Ya:Average(past5+years)yieldachievedbyfarmersinagivenregionunderdominantmanagementpracticesandsoilpropertiesYieldgap–Yg:differencebetweenYp(orYw)andYaCropwaterproductivity–WP:ratiobetweenyieldandseasonalwatersupply(PAWatplanting+in-seasonrainfall+irrigation–PAWatharvest)MartinvanIttersumandKenCassman,2011Liuetal.,2016,Agron.J.Itisdefinedhereastheyieldattainedbyafarmerfromaveragenaturalresourceswheneconomicallyoptimalpracticesandlevelsofinputshavebeenadoptedwhilefacingthevagariesofweather.Althoughitisnoteasytoestablishanappropriateattainableyield,generalexperiencesuggeststhatitwillbe~20–30%belowPYinsituationswhereworldpricesandreasonabletransportcostsoperate.EconomicyieldExploitableYG（2）研究方法進(jìn)一步明確，并趨向標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化第一屆產(chǎn)量差會(huì)議第二屆產(chǎn)量差會(huì)議（北京，2011.8.31-9.1）（武漢，2014.4.8-9）FieldCropsResearch?？黝}：Yieldgapanalysis-Rationale,methodsandapplications-IntroductiontotheSpecialIssuePotentialyield各級(jí)產(chǎn)量水平的測(cè)定PYasdefinedhereisobtainedfromtwosources:comparativevarietytrialsandsinglevarietyexperiments.ThesecondsourceofPYdatacomesfromcarefulfieldexperimentsconductedbycropphysiologists,oftentocalibrateand/orvalidatecropsimulationmodelsthatarelargelydrivenbysolarradiation,temperatureandwatersupplyappliedtokeycropphysiologicalprocesses.CropmodellingisthenoftenusedtopredictPYinotherenvironments.AttainableyieldAlthoughitisnoteasytoestablishanappropriateattainableyield,generalexperiencesuggeststhatitwillbe~20–30%belowPYinsituationswhereworldpricesandreasonabletransportcostsoperate.Fischeretal.,2014.CropyieldsandglobalfoodsecurityHowgoodisgoodenough?Datarequirementsforreliablecropyieldsimulationsandyield-gapanalysisGrassinietal.,2015,FCRInfavourableenvironments,10yearsofweatherdataaresufficienttoestimateanaverageyieldandCVthatarewithin±10%oftheestimatesobtainedwiththeentire30-yeardatabase.Thenumberofrequiredyearsincreasesto15to20yearsinlessfavourableenvironments.Hence,dependinguponwatersupply,10(irrigatedorfavourablerainfedenvironments)to20yearsofdailyweatherdata(harshrainfedenvironments)areneededforreliableestimates.GYGA：Agro-climaticzonesEwertetal.,2011,AEEFromfieldtoatlas:upscalingoflocation-specificyieldgapestimatesVanBusseletal.,2015,FCREstimatednationalwater-limitedyieldpotentialswerefoundtoberobustifdatacouldbecollectedthatarerepresentativeforapproximately50%ofthenationalharvestedareaofacrop.Inasensitivityanalysisforrainfedmaizeinfourcountries,assumingonly25%coverageofthenationalharvestedcroparea(torepresentcountrieswithpoordataavailability),nationalwater-limitedyieldpotentialswerefoundtobeover-orunderestimatedby3to27%comparedtoestimateswiththerecommendedcropareacoverageof≥50%.產(chǎn)量潛力模擬/about-us/2011-present：243papersRelativevariationbetweenobservedandaverageyieldsimulatedwithnrandomlyselectedmodelsamong19at4worldsites,asafunctionofn.Bassuetal.,2014,GCBLietal.,2014,GCBUncertaintiesinpredictingriceyieldbycurrentcropmodelsunderawiderangeofclimaticconditions（3）不同尺度研究結(jié)果取得重要進(jìn)展全球國(guó)家和區(qū)域尺度農(nóng)戶Muelleretal.,2012,NatureRayetal.,2012,NatureCommun.Cuietal.,2013,GCBLiuetal.,2012,GCBHochmanetal.,2013,FCRVanIttersumetal.,2013Zhaoetal.,2015,FCR研究進(jìn)展研究概況主要進(jìn)展小麥產(chǎn)量差案例2.主要啟示主要內(nèi)容NENW-RNW-INCP-INCP-RMLYSWNortheastChina(Springwheat,Rainfed)NorthwestChina(Winterwheat,Irrigated)NorthChinaPlain(Winterwheat,Irrigated)MiddleandlowerreachesoftheYangzeriver(Winterwheat,Rainfed)SouthwestChina(Winterwheat,Irrigated)NorthChinaPlain(Winterwheat,Rainfed)NorthwestChina(Winterwheat,Rainfed)Sevenwheatagro-ecologicalsubregionsinChinaLiuetal.,2016,Agron.J.YieldpotentialestimationbasedonfieldmeasurementsHighestrecordedyield:searchedfromliteratures,primarilygeneratedbyagronomistsinhighyieldingorvarietytestingexperiments.548datapointsfrom213sitesalloverChina.Attainableyieldestimationaccordingtothebestfarmers’yieldBestfarmers’yield:themeanyieldof94thto99thdecileoffarmers’yield,227bestfarmers’yieldfrom4552farmsurveys.Averagefarmers’yieldassessmentbasedonthefarmsurveyPotentialYield(PY)AttainableYield（AY）AverageFarmers’Yield(FY)3.4tha-19.0tha-18.0tha-15.6tha-12.4tha-1WheatyieldpotentialandyieldgapinthewholeChinaFY/PY=62%FY/AY=71%Liuetal.,2016,Agron.J.研究進(jìn)展研究概況主要進(jìn)展小麥產(chǎn)量差案例2.主要啟示主要內(nèi)容一、未來(lái)提高產(chǎn)量潛力，縮小產(chǎn)量差靠什么？Fischeretal.,2014.Cropyieldsandglobalfoodsecurity增產(chǎn)途徑歷史作物產(chǎn)量變化氣候變化可能在10年后導(dǎo)致全球饑荒在考慮干旱、缺水、氣溫過(guò)高和對(duì)玉米生長(zhǎng)有影響的其它四個(gè)因素氣候模型后,到2030年,當(dāng)前的玉米品種將無(wú)法在非洲絕大多數(shù)國(guó)家正常成長(zhǎng)。新玉米品種由育種家育成、農(nóng)場(chǎng)主掌握平均需要20到30年,屆時(shí)非洲的氣候變化將以更快速度進(jìn)行。因此,學(xué)者們警告,如果現(xiàn)在不開(kāi)始研發(fā)適應(yīng)“新環(huán)境”生活的新玉米品種,那么在未來(lái)30到40年內(nèi),等待地球的將是糧食危機(jī)。我國(guó)小麥和玉米的產(chǎn)量潛力和產(chǎn)量差產(chǎn)量潛力農(nóng)戶產(chǎn)量產(chǎn)量差80%產(chǎn)量潛力增產(chǎn)潛力增產(chǎn)比率16.5Mgha-17.9Mgha-18.6Mgha-113.2Mgha-15.3Mgha-167%9.0Mgha-15.6Mgha-13.4Mgha