unctad -2024 年非洲經(jīng)濟發(fā)展報告 Economic Development in Africa Report 2024 (OVERVIEW)

UNITEDNATIONSCONFERENCEONTRADEANDDEVELOPMENT

2024

Economic

developmentinAfricareport

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential

Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

OVERVIEW

?AdobeStock

Geneva,2025

?2025,UnitedNations

Thisworkisavailablethroughopenaccess,bycomplyingwiththeCreativeCommonslicence

createdforintergovernmentalorganizations,at

/licenses/by/3.0/igo/

.

ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialonanymapinthisworkdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheUnitedNationsconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.

Photocopiesandreproductionsofexcerptsareallowedwithpropercredits.

UnitedNationspublicationissuedbytheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment

UNCTAD/ALDC/AFRICA/2024(Overview)

Content

ForewordPageiv

IntroductionPagevii

Page7

Theeconomic

vulnerabilitiestomonitorwhentradingand

investingacrossAfrica

Page13

Maximizingtrade

resilienceandregionalmarketbenefitsinAfrica

Page1

Shocksexposureandvulnerabilitydynamicsacrosscountriesin

Africa

Page27

Policy

recommendations

Page21

Buildingresilienceinbusinessesandcross-bordertransactionsinAfrica

iii

EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

?2024_UNCTAD

Foreword

Theworldisinpolycrisis,andAfricaisonthefrontlineofexposure.Thesameglobalshockhasverydifferentimpactsdependingonthelocation.Resilienceisthedifferencebetweentheshockandtheimpact;howtobuildresilienceinAfricaisthefocusofthisreport.Recentcriseshavehitthecontinentdisproportionately.Buildingresiliencewillallowthecontinenttoreapthemanyopportunitiesofferedbyitsfuture.

Thoughexposurevariesbycountry,Africaneconomiesarepersistentlyexposedtoarangeofexternalshocksduetocommodity-dependency,highlevelsofdebtandlimitedtechnologicalinfrastructureandconnectivity.AbouthalfofallAfricancountriesreliedonoil,gasormineralsforover60percentoftheirexportearningsin2023.Globaltraderoutedisruptionshaveexposedthemtosignificantlyhighershippingandtradecosts.In2024,Africanshippingrateswere115percentabovepre-COVID-19(coronavirusdisease)pandemiclevelsanddoublethe2023averagecosts.Atthesametime,officialdevelopmentassistancetoAfricadeclinedby4.1percentin2022,whileAfrica’saverageborrowingcostincreasedto11.6percent,8.5percentagepointshigherthantherisk-freerateofthebenchmarkoftheUnitedStates.

Thisyear’sEconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024:UnlockingAfrica’sTradePotential–BoostingRegionalMarketsandReducingRiskspresentssomeimportanttoolsinthiscontext.ThisincludesacomprehensiveframeworktohelpAfricancountriesanalysethenatureoftheirownexposuretoshocks,withaparticularfocusontradeandinvestment.Wealsoprovideanevidence-basedanalysisthathighlightshowregionaltradecanincreasethecontinent’sresilience.Therearefivetakeawaysfromthisreport.

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

First,theargumentthateconomicdiversificationservesasastrongbufferagainsteconomicshocksremainsrelevant.ThisisparticularlytrueforAfricaneconomiesthatdependonalimitednumberoftradepartners.Africahasfivemaintradingpartnersaccountingforover50percentofallitsimportsandexports.

Second,despitesixdecadesofgrowthingrossexports,Africa’sintegrationintohighvalueaddedsegmentsofglobalsupplychainsremainslow.Only16of54Africancountriessourcemorethan0.5percentoftheirintermediateinputsfromwithinthecontinent.BetterinfrastructureandleveragingtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeAreacanimproveregionalmarketparticipationanddrivepositiveoutcomes.

Third,improvingtheoperationalenvironmentisvitalforAfricanbusinesses,particularlymicroenterprisesandsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises.Lessthan50percentofthepopulationhasreliableelectricityaccess,whichraisescostsandlimitsvaluechainintegration.Relianceonfossilfuels,over50percentoftheenergysupply,heightensrisksamidglobalenergytransitions.RecentgrowthinrenewableenergyinvestmentinAfrica(estimatedat$15billionin2023)remaindirelylowcomparedtoglobalrenewableenergyinvestment,atabout2.3percentofthetotal.

Fourth,polycrisiscreateseconomicuncertaintyanddiscouragestradeandinvestment,thushamperinglong-termdevelopmentprospects.In2023,flowsofforeigndirectinvestmenttoAfricadeclinedby3percent,toatotalstockof$53billion.Deeperregionalintegrationcanhelpreversethetrend.Lastyear,between13and20percentofinternationalprojectsfinancedinAfricawerefundedbyAfricaninvestorsthemselves.

Finally,thereportprovidessomekeypolicyrecommendationstoAfricanGovernments.Thisincludesenhancingthelegalandregulatoryenvironment,leveragingrobustriskmanagementtools,regionalcooperationandstrategicinvestmentsininfrastructureandtechnologytoensuresmoothtradeandimprovedconnectivity.

IhopethatthiseditionoftheEconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReportwillserveasavaluabletoolforpolicymakersandinspireurgentactionintheseurgenttimes.

RebecaGrynspan

Secretary-GeneralofUNCTAD

v

Introduction

Africaisfacingacomplexglobalpolycrisisthatencompassesclimate-related,economic,politicalandtechnologicalchallenges.Theinterconnectednessofvulnerabilities,intensifiedbygeopoliticaltensionsandclimatechange,posessignificantriskstothecontinent.However,Africaalsopossessesuniquestrengths,suchasayoungpopulation,significantnaturalresourcesandgrowingregionalmarketsandinvestmentopportunities.

UNCTAD,inEconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024:UnlockingAfrica’sTradePotential–BoostingRegionalMarketsandReducingRisks,emphasizestheneedtobalancetheseopportunitiesandsystemicvulnerabilities,toenhanceresilienceandpromotesustainabledevelopment.UNCTADexamineshowthecomplexinterplayofcrisesin2000–2022impactedeconomicdevelopmentinAfricaandexacerbatedtradeandfinancialrisks,particularlyforfirms.SixcategoriesofshocksthatposesignificantthreatstoAfricantradeanddevelopmentareidentified,namely,political,economic,demographic,energy-related,technologicalandclimate-related.Vulnerabilitytotheseshocksisanalysedacrossthefollowingsixdomains:economic,governance-related,connectivity,social,energy-relatedandclimate.

Tonavigatethechallengesoftheglobalpolycrisis,UNCTADhighlightsthecriticalneedforregionalcooperation,robustriskmanagementandstrategicinvestmentsininfrastructureandtechnology.TheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeAreaservesasapivotalmechanismforfosteringintra-Africantrade,reducingdependencyonexternalmarketsandbuildingmoreresilienttradenetworks.Byleveragingregionalintegrationandcollaborativepolicies,countriesinAfricacanmitigatevulnerabilitiesandcapitalizeongrowthopportunities.

vii

?2024UNCTAD.Imagecreatedbyhumanswiththeassistanceofartificialintelligence

1

ShocksexposureandvulnerabilitydynamicsacrosscountriesinAfrica

1

EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

Avarietyofinterconnectedexternalshocks,suchasgeopoliticalconflicts,theglobalcoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemicandinflationarypressures,havedisruptedsupplychains,increasedcostsandmagnifiedsocioeconomicvulnerabilitiesworldwide.TheseshocksinteractwiththevulnerablesocioeconomicandpoliticalstructuresinAfrica,creatinguniquechallengestosustainabledevelopment.Duringrecentepisodesofglobalcrises,suchastheoilpriceshockin2014–2016andthepandemicin2019–2020,countriesinAfrica,asweremanyothercountriesworldwide,weresubjecttohigherlevelsofuncertaineconomicandpoliticalsituations(figure1).

Figure1

Worlduncertaintyindex:Africaandglobalaverages

SiliconBank,BankSuisse

Geopoliticaltensionsand

collapseof

Valley

SignatureandCredit

Africa

World

(Index)

GulfWar

80000

70000

60000

UnitedStatesofAmericarecessioandattacksintheUnitedStateso11September200

nn1

Financial

creditcrunch

Iraqwarand

outbreakofsevereacuterespiratorysyndrome

SovereigndebtcrisisinEurope

UnitedS?scalclif

sovere

debtcrisis

UniteStatepresielecti

tatesfandign

in

Trainclan

d

s

dentialons

detensions,udingChinadtheUnitedStates,and“Brexit”

COVID-19pandemic

50000

FedertighteinGre

Europe

alReserveSystem

ningandpoliticalriskeceandUkraine

WarUkra

inine

40000

30000

20000

10000

0

“Br

exit”

199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Source:UNCTADcalculations,basedondatafromtheworlduncertaintyindex,2024.Abbreviation:GDP,grossdomesticproduct.

Heightenedpoliticalrisksduetoconflicts,frequentgovernancedisruptionsandinstabilityexperiencedonthecontinentaffecteconomicresilienceandhinderrecoveryeffortsincountriesinAfrica.Ofthe492attemptedorsuccessfulcoupsrecordedgloballysince1950,220havetakenplaceinAfrica.Thishascontributedtolowlevelsofinvestmentandachallengingbusinessenvironmentinmanycountries.With46percentofcountriesinAfricahavingdebt-to-GDPratiosexceedingthesustainablelevelof60percent,thecontinentisparticularlyexposedtohighborrowingcostsandhighinflationratesdrivenbyeconomiccrisesandsupplychaindisruptions.

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

ThevulnerabilityofAfricastemsfromexposuretothefollowingsixcategoriesofshocks:

(a)Political:Coupsd'état,governancechallengesandtheerosionofdemocraticinstitutions;(b)Economic:Debtburdens,tradeimbalancesandinflation;

(c)Demographic:Rapidpopulationgrowthandmigrationpressures;

(d)Energy-related:Dependencyonfossilfuelsandlimitedrenewableinfrastructure;(e)Technological:Digitalgapsandexposuretodisruptiveinnovations;

(f)Climate-related:Severeweathereventsandagriculturaldependency.

Theextenttowhichtheseshocksposeriskstotradeandinvestmentdependsonthevulnerabilityofcountriestobeingharmedbysuchshocksiftheyoccur.Lessvulnerableandhencemoreresilientcountrieswillbelessharmedandtradeandinvestmentwillbelessatrisk.TherearesixdomainsacrosswhichcountriesinAfricaareparticularlyvulnerabletotheeffectsofthepolycrisis,namely,economic,governance,connectivity,social,energyandclimate(figure2).

Figure2

Africa:Interconnectedexposuretopolycrisisshocksandvulnerabilityacrossdifferentdomainsthatcanthreatentradeandcapitalflows

Exposuretoshocks

Domainsofvulnerability

?Political

?Economic

?Economic

?Governance

?Demographic

?Connectivity

?Energy-related

?Social

?Technology

?Energy

?Climate-related

?Climate

Source:UNCTAD.

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

Forinstance,in2022,climate-relatedhazardsinAfricacaused$8.5billionindamages,affectingover110millionpeople.Climatechangeposesexistentialrisks,particularlyinagriculture-dependenteconomies.Severeweathereventsandenvironmentaldegradationthreatenfoodsecurity,livelihoodsandeconomicstability.Countrieswithinadequateclimateadaptationpoliciesfaceintensifiedchallengesfromextremeweatherandenvironmentaldegradation,whichlimitstheabilitytocopewithcrises.

Inaddition,inAfrica,withlessthan50percentofthepopulationhavingreliableaccesstoelectricityandgivenarelianceonfossilfuelsandthesignificantbarriersfacedintheenergytransition,vulnerabilitytoglobalenergypriceshocksisintensified.MostcountriesinAfricalacktheinfrastructuretoharnesshydro,solarorwindpower.BuildingrenewableenergycapacityinordertoreducetherelianceonfossilfuelsandsecuringinternationalfundingforsustainableenergyprojectsarecriticalfortransformationandresilienceinAfrica;$190billionisneededannuallyforenergyinvestment,equalto6.1percentofGDPofAfrica.

ExposuretopolycrisisshocksdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatAfricaisatrisk.Theextentofriskdependsonhowvulnerableacountryistoharmbytheoccurrenceofsuchshocksandwhetheritcandealwiththem.ConnectivityvulnerabilityandeconomicvulnerabilityaretwoofthemaindomainsinwhichcountriesinAfricaaremostvulnerableinthecurrentcontextofpolycrisisshocks(seetable).

AddressingthesourcesofvulnerabilityinAfricarequiresthefollowingactions:

(a)Encouragediversificationawayfromresourcedependency,toreducevulnerabilitytomarketshocks;

(b)IncreasetradewithinAfrica,particularlythroughmechanismssuchastheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea,toreducedependenceonglobalmarkets;

(c)Implementsoundfiscalpolicies,toreducedebtdependency,andimproveaccesstofinancing,tosustaineconomicresilience;

(d)Enhancetransportationnetworksanddigitalconnectivity,toreducetradecostsandsupportefficientlogistics;

(e)Investinrenewableenergyandbuildinfrastructureforreliableenergyaccess,toreduceexposuretoglobalenergymarketfluctuations.

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

Majorareasofvulnerabilitytopolycrisisshocks,bycountry:Africaismostvulnerableacrosstheconnectivityandeconomicdomains

Toptwo

vulnerabilitydomains

Toptwo

vulnerabilitydomains

Algeria

Connectivity+Economic

Libya

Governance+Connectivity

Angola

Connectivity+Economic

Madagascar

Connectivity+Economic

Benin

Economic+Connectivity

Malawi

Energy+Connectivity

BurkinaFaso

Economic+Energy

Mali

Economic+Connectivity

Burundi

Energy+Economic

Mauritania

Connectivity+Economic

CaboVerde

Connectivity+Economic

Mauritius

Connectivity+Economic

Cameroon

Connectivity+Economic

Morocco

Economic+Connectivity

CentralAfricanRepublic

Social+Economic

Mozambique

Connectivity+Energy

Chad

Energy+Social

Namibia

Connectivity+Economic

Comoros

Connectivity+Economic

Niger

Connectivity+Economic

Congo

Connectivity+Social

Nigeria

Economic+Connectivity

C?ted’Ivoire

Economic+Connectivity

Rwanda

Economic+Connectivity

DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo

Connectivity+Energy

SaoTomeandPrincipe

Connectivity+Economic

Djibouti

Governance+Connectivity

Senegal

Connectivity+Economic

Egypt

Governance+Economic

Seychelles

Climate+Governance

EquatorialGuinea

Governance+Connectivity

SierraLeone

Connectivity+Economic

Eritrea

Connectivity+Governance

Somalia

Governance+Connectivity

Eswatini

Connectivity+Social

SouthAfrica

Governance+Connectivity

Ethiopia

Economic+Connectivity

SouthSudan

Social+Energy

Gabon

Connectivity+Governance

Sudan

Connectivity+Governance

Gambia

Connectivity+Economic

UnitedRepublicofTanzania

Economic+Connectivity

Ghana

Economic+Connectivity

Togo

Economic+Connectivity

Guinea

Economic+Connectivity

Tunisia

Connectivity+Economic

Guinea-Bissau

Economic+Connectivity

Uganda

Economic+Connectivity

Kenya

Economic+Connectivity

Zambia

Economic+Connectivity

Lesotho

Connectivity+Economic

Zimbabwe

Economic+Connectivity

Liberia

Connectivity+Energy

Source:UNCTAD.

Note:The2023socialprogressindexscoreusedtomeasurethevulnerabilityofcountriesinAfricatopolycrisisshocksinthesocialdomainisnotavailableforSeychelles;thesocialdomainisthereforenottakenintoaccountwhenidentifyingthetoptwodomainsforSeychelles.

5

?AdobeStock

2

Theeconomicvulnerabilitiesto

monitorwhentradingandinvestingacrossAfrica

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

In2002–2023,Africaemergedasaprominentandattractivedestinationfortradeandinvestment,givenabove-averagelevelsofeconomicperformance.However,economiesinAfricaexperiencedupsetsthathadadverseeffectsoneconomicgrowthandsustainabledevelopment.AmajorrisktotradeinAfricaisthelackofeconomicdiversification,sincecountriesarethereforepoorlybufferedintimesofeconomicandothercrisesthathaveanimpactonoutput.

OneapproachtoassessingtheperformanceofeconomiesinAfricaduringperiodsofshockinvolvestwomainperspectivesonexposuretoshocks,namely,effectsduetomacroeconomicandstructuralvulnerabilitiesandeffectsduetoaparticularcrisis,accordingtovulnerabilitybycountrygrouping.Akeyvariable,oftenregardedasanindicatorofinterestfortradeandinvestment,isGDPgrowth.In2000–2010,theeconomyofAfricagrewbyanannual4.8percentonaverage,whichwas1.7percentagepointshigherthantheglobalaverageof3.1percent.Similarly,in2011–2020,theaverageGDPgrowthofAfricawas3.1percent,comparedwiththeglobalaverageof2.4percent.Growthratesvariedsubstantially,asthecontinentwasexposedtonumerousshocks,affectingeconomicgrowthinvariousways(figure3).

Figure3

EconomyofAfrica:Averagegrowthof4.9percent,underpinnedbycommoditypricebooms

(Annualpercentagechange)

ArabSpringCommodityprice

decline

COVID-19pandemic

Commoditypriceboom

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

Global?nancialcrisis

200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022

Source:UNCTADcalculations,basedondatafromtheWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase(WorldBank).

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

About16percentoftheglobalpopulationlivesinAfrica.Tradevolumesare,however,disproportionatelysmall,representinglessthan2.9percentofworldtradein2022.ThelowtradevolumereflectsthechallengingeconomicplacementofAfricaintheworldeconomy,inwhichitisrelativelyweakanddependentonstrongereconomicregions,whilealsoparticularlyvulnerabletoexternalshocks.Generally,theinvestmentgrowthtrajectoryinAfricaisadverselyimpactedbyshocks(figure4).Forinstance,intandemwithcommoditypriceshocksin2014,grossfixedcapitalformationgrowthdeclinedfrom11.4percentin2014to4.8percentin2015.Similarly,in2020,theeffectsofthepandemicsawgrossfixedcapitalformationcontractby4.1percent.

Figure4

EconomyofAfrica:Averagegrossfixedcapitalformationgrowthrate–investmenttrajectoryadverselyaffectedbycommoditypriceshocksandthepandemic

(Annualpercentagechange)

10

5

0

2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Source:UNCTADcalculations,basedondatafromtheWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdatabase(WorldBank).

Macroeconomicvariablesaffecttradinginaneconomyandcanbeusedtoassesstradeperformanceintheshorttomediumterms.Inaddition,awell-managedmacroeconomystrengthenstradeperformance.Twomainvariablesinassessingmacroeconomicriskarefiscalbalanceandinflation,wherebysoundfiscalpoliciesensuremacroeconomicstabilityandanoverrelianceononesourceofrevenue,underpinnedbythelackofdiversification,leadstoriskstolonger-termmacroeconomicsustainability.

InAfrica,in2010–2019,theaveragefiscalbalancedeviation,definedasthedifferencebetweenplannedorforecastfiscalbalanceandactualfiscalbalance,wasadeficitof0.1percentofGDP,withthehighestdeficitin2014,at2percentofGDP,duetoadropincommodityprices(figure5).In2020,thefiscalbalancedeviationwasadeficitof3.4percentofGDP,duetoincreasedspendingrelatedtothepandemic.SuchdeviationsdemonstratetheimpactofshocksontheabilityofAfricanGovernmentstomanagerevenues,reacttoemergenciessuchasthepandemicandmitigaterisks.

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

Figure5

EconomyofAfrica:Averagefiscalbalancedeviations–adjustmentsduringgrowthperiodsoftenleavelittleroomforadjustmentsduringperiodsofshock,posingrisksformacroeconomicstability

(Percentageofgrossdomesticproduct)

1.6

1

0.70.7

0.1

-1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-2

-0.8

-2.1

2010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Source:UNCTADcalculations,basedondatafromtheWorldEconomicOutlookdatabase(InternationalMonetaryFund).

Inthepasttwodecades,thepandemicmaybethemostsignificantrisktoeconomiesinAfricatohavematerialized.Thepandemichadfar-reachingeconomicimplicationsforalleconomiesglobally,withparticularlyadverseeffectsonservices-exportingeconomies.InAfrica,in2019–2021,theleadingfiveexportersoftradeinservicesinabsolutetermsonaveragewereEgypt($20.6billion),Morocco($16.2billion),SouthAfrica($11.2billion),Ghana($8.9billion)andEthiopia($4.9billion).Othercountrieswithtradeinservicesexportsofover$1billionwereKenya,Nigeria,Tunisia,theUnitedRepublicofTanzaniaandAlgeria(figure6).In2019–2021,ofthe10countrieswiththehighestaveragetradeinservicesexports,Algeria,Kenya,Morocco,Nigeria,SouthAfricaandTunisiahadGDPunfavourablyimpactedduringthepandemic.

MacroeconomicstabilityandfiscalpolicyreformsareessentialinmanagingvulnerabilitiesineconomiesinAfrica,particularlygivenexposuretoexternalshocks,highdebtlevelsandeconomicrelianceonalimitedrangeofexports.Toachievemacroeconomicstabilityandsustainablefiscalpolicy,AfricanGovernmentsneedtobalancegrowth-orientedspendingwithdisciplinedfiscalanddebtmanagement.Reducingrelianceonexternalborrowing,diversifyingrevenuesourcesandpromotingtransparencyarevitalsteps.Byinstitutingsoundfiscalframeworksandstrengtheninginstitutionalcapacities,countriescanbetterwithstandeconomicshocks,attractinvestmentandcreateastableenvironmentconducivetolong-termeconomicgrowthandresilience.

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

Figure6

EconomyofAfrica:Trade-in-servicesexportsaverage,2019–2021–6outof10countrieswithhighestaveragetrade-in-servicesexportsaffectedbyglobaleconomicandsocialshocks

20000

(Millionsofdollars)

10000

EgyptMoroccoSouth

Africa

GhanaEthiopiaKenyaNigeriaTunisiaUnited

RepublicofTanzania

Algeria

Source:UNCTADcalculations,basedondatafromtheUNCTADstatdatabase.

?AdobeStock

?Shutterstock

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MaximizingtraderesilienceandregionalmarketbenefitsinAfrica

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EconomicDevelopmentinAfricaReport2024

UnlockingAfrica'stradepotential:Boostingregionalmarketsandreducingrisks

Overview

Economicallyvulnerablecountriesoftenfallintoaninstabilitytrapwhenaffectedbypolycrisisshocks,whichfurtherweakenproductiveandtradingcapabilitiesandlimitprospectsforequitableandsustainabledevelopment.Suchshocks,includingglobaleconomicdownturns,healthcrises,suchasthepandemic,andgeopoliticaldisruptions,suchasthewarinUkraine,revealthefragilityofmarketsinAfrica,particularlyduetodependenceonanarrowrangeofprimaryexportcommoditiesandminimalbackwardintegrationwithinvaluechains.

Modestprogresshasbeenmadeinintra-Africantrade,yetoverallintegrationwithinAfricaremainslow.MostcountriesinAfricaexportprimarilyunprocessedorsemi-processedgoodstonon-Africanmarkets,missingopportunitiestobuildvalueaddedproductionnetworkswithinthecontinent.Only16countriesinAfricareceiveasmallpercentageofintermediateinputsfromothercountriesonthecontinentandfewcountriesserveascoresuppliersinregionaltradenetworks.ThismeansthatregionalmarketsareunderutilizedandthereisuntappedpotentialforcountriesinAfricatoprovideintermediategoodstooneanother.ThetradenetworksofAfricaarecurrentlyhighlyconcentratedamongafewcountries,includingalimitednumberofglobalpartnerssuchasChina,France,IndiaandtheUnitedStates(figure7).

Only16of54countriesinAfricasource0.5–6percentoftotalintermediateinputsfromothercountriesonthecontinent.Anetworkanalysisshowsthatasmallnumberofcountries,includingKenya,NigeriaandSouthAfrica,actasmajorsuppliersandusersofvalueaddedgoods.Asaresult,thesecountriesarecentraltotradenetworksinAfricaanddisruptionsintheseeconomiescanhaveanoutsizedeffectonothereconomies.Thatis,ifashock,suchaseconomicdisruptionorpoliticalinstability,affectsoneofthesecentralnodes,theeffectscanspreadquickly,impactingproductionandtradethroughoutthecontinent.ThecountriesthatanchorthetradenetworkformchokepointsinvalueandsupplychainsinAfricaandhavethegreatestpotentialtodisruptproductionandoutputacrossmanyeconomiesbyamplifyingtheeffectsofvariousshocks.Asaresult,countrieshavelimitedoptionsinadjustingtoshocksandprotectingbusinessesfromtheirimpactsthroughtrade.Bydiversifyingtradepartnershipsandreducingoverrelianceonafewcoreeconomies,Africacanenhancetheresilienceofvaluechainsandreducevulnerabilitytolocalizeddisruptions.

CountriesinAfricahavesignificantpotentialforupgradinganddiversifyingexportsandimprovingthelike