海藻預(yù)測(cè)-到2050年的海洋未來報(bào)告（英文版）-DNV

WHENTRUSTMATTERS

DNV

SEAWEED

FORECAST

Ocean’sFutureto2050

AboutDNV

DNVistheindependentexpertinriskmanagementand

assurance,operatinginmorethan100countries.Throughits

broadexperienceanddeepexpertiseDNVadvancessafetyandsustainableperformance,setsindustrybenchmarks,andinspiresandinventssolutions.

Whetherassessinganewshipdesign,optimizingthe

performanceofawindfarm,analysingsensordatafromagaspipelineorcertifyingafoodcompany’ssupplychain,DNV

enablesitscustomersandtheirstakeholderstomakecriticaldecisionswithconfidence.

Drivenbyitspurpose,tosafeguardlife,property,andthe

environment,DNVhelpstacklethechallengesandglobal

transformationsfacingitscustomersandtheworldtodayandisatrustedvoiceformanyoftheworld’smostsuccessfulandforward-thinkingcompanies.

Layoutandprint:ErikTancheNilssenAS/ETNGrafisk

Images:P.1,3:Stockforyou/S,p.4–5,17:NASALandsat-8scene,courtesyof

TerraColorNextGenandU.S.GeologicalSurvey,p.6:KimPin/S,p.8:iStockphoto,p.11:Pixel-Shot/S,p.13:MichelArnault/S,p.14:EoNaYa,Getty,

p.18:BentePretlove,DNV.

CONTENT

Keymessages5

1Introduction7

2Seaweeddevelopmentto20508

3Climateimpactsandbiologicalchallenges14

4Co-existence16

5Conclusions19

Thetenworldregions20

Ourapproach21

References22

SEAWEEDFORECAST

4

Keymessages

5

KEYMESSAGES

1.Seaweedproductionvolumeswillgrowbetween60%and75%to2050

a.DirectfoodconsumptioninGreaterChinaandOECDPacificremainsthesinglemostimportantuseofseaweed,followedbyfoodadditives.

b.Otheruseslikefeed,biostimulants,andindustrialproductsremainmarginaldriversofseaweedproduction.

c.Climatechangevulnerabilitywillimpactregionalfarmingpracticesandspeciesselection,butadaptationstrategieslikeselectivebreedingwillhelpmitigatethemostsevereconsequences.

2.Seaweeddemandforecastsbasedonofficialproductionstatisticsmaybehighly

overestimated

a.Officialstatisticslikelyoverestimatecurrentseaweedproductiondueto

imprecisereportinginkeyproducercountries,especiallyrelatedtoredseaweedusedinfoodadditives.

b.Weforecastaglobalproductionofseaweedbetween34and63Mtby2050,dependingonthereliabilityofofficialstatistics.

c.Lackofreportingstandardsandpoordataqualityinofficialproductionstatisticsunderscoretheneedforsupplychaintraceability.

3.Theentireworldseaweeddemandin2050canbemetbyco-locatingseaweed

productionwithoffshorewindfarms

a.Seaweedproductionisapromisingco-locationoptionthatcangenerateadditionaleconomicvaluewhileprovidingecosystemservicesandsimplerlogisticsthanotheraquaculture.

b.Meetingworldseaweeddemandwillrequirethesameareaasbetween3.5%and6.5%ofthefutureareaoccupiedbyoffshorewind.

c.Offshorewindfarmsarealreadyco-locatedwithseaweedfarmsinChina,andmulti-usepilotprojectsareunderwayinEurope.

6

Introduction

7

1INTRODUCTION

ThefutureoftheBlueEconomywillbeshapedbyseveralglobaltransformations,withtheoceanplayingakeyroleinenablingmoresustainablefoodandenergysystems.Seaweedcanplayakeypartinthesetransformations.

SeaweedrepresentsanimportantfoodsourceinregionssuchasEastAsia,anditcanbeusedintheproduction

offeed,foodadditives,pharmaceuticals,nutraceuticals,industrialfeedstocks,materials,andbiostimulants.

Seaweedcanhaveacomparativelylowenvironmentalimpactcomparedtoothertypesofseafoodand

agriculturalproducts(Gephartetal.,2021).Furthermore,seaweedprovidesimportantecosystemservicessuchascarbondioxidesequestration(DNV,2023c),improving

waterqualitybyextractingharmfulnutrientssuchas

nitrogen(Maaretal.,2023),andcreatingvaluablehabitatsforincreasedbiodiversity(Hoegh-Guldbergetal.,2023).

Inthisreport,weforecastseaweeddemandand

productionto2050,basedonupdatesinDNV’sOcean’sFutureto2050model(DNV,2021),whichtakesaholisticapproachtomodellingtheBlueEconomy1.InEastAsia,seaweedproductionhasreachedsubstantialvolumes

withrapidgrowthoverthethreelastdecades.Intherestoftheworld,seaweedcultivationstartsfromaverylowbaseline,andharvestingofwildseaweedstillprovidesmostofthesupply.

Asanalternativefoodsupplychainthatcontributesto

diversifyingproduction,whileminimizingenvironmentalfootprint,theEUseesseaweedcultivationasanimportantpartofitsaquaculturestrategy

(EUCommission,2021)

.

Similarly,theHighLevelPanelforaSustainableOceanEconomyconsidersseaweedasanocean-basedclimateactionwithrespecttobothmarineecosystemsand

dietaryshifts(Hoegh-Guldbergetal.,2023).Forcoastalcommunitiesindevelopingcountriesparticularly,the

seaweedsectorcouldbecomeanevenmoresignificantsourceofemploymentopportunities(FAO,2022).

Theperceivedsustainabilityadvantagesofseaweedimplythatthesectorislikelytoreceivesubstantialattentionfrominvestorsandpolicymakersinyearstocome.Byprovidingamost-likelyforecastofseaweeddemandandsupply,weaimtocontributetoanchoringindustrygrowthambitionstoanobjectiveviewoftheprospectsofthesector.

1TheBlueEconomyisdefinedbytheOECD(2016)as'thesumoftheeconomicactivitiesofocean-basedindustries,togetherwiththeassets,goods,andservicesprovidedbymarineecosystems'.

SEAWEEDFORECAST

2SEAWEEDDEVELOPMENTTO2050

Weforecastbetween60%and75%growthinseaweed

productionby2050.Seaweedproductsrelatedtotheworld’sfoodsystemwilldominateamongdemanddrivers.

8

Seaweeddevelopmentto2050

9

Weforecastseaweedto2050for10globalregionsanddivideseaweedintotwomaintypes–red

(Eucheumatoids,GracilariaandPyropia(nori))andbrown(Saccharina(kombu)andUndaria(wakame)).There

ismountingevidenceofoverreportingofseaweed

production(Langford,2023;Jin,etal.,2023),whichmakesitrelevanttoinvestigatetheimplicationsthishasonthe

futureofseaweed.

Wefirstpresentresultsforthecasewhereofficial

productionstatisticsfromtheFoodandAgriculture

Organization(FAO)areusedasabaseline,beforeturningtoacasewhereweadjusthistoricalproductiondataforbrownseaweedto80%andredseaweedto20%ofwhatisreportedtotheFAO.

Seaweedgrowth–basedonofficialstatistics

Inthebasecase,weuseofficialproductionstatisticsandforecastagrowthofseaweeddemandfrom36Mtto63Mt,indicatingagrowthofapproximately75%

betweennowand2050(seeFigure1).Theseaweed

industryisdrivenbydemandfromfourproduct

categoriesinourmodel–directfoodconsumption,

foodadditives,aquaculturefeed(mainlyabalone),andotheruses(pharmaceuticals,nutraceuticals,industrialfeedstocks,materials,andbiostimulants).Byproduct

category,directfoodconsumptionwillremainthelargest,followedbyfoodadditives,whichcomparativelygrow

muchfasterintermsofdemand.Allotherusesgrow

onlytoconstituteaslightlybiggerfractionoftheoverallsupplycomparedtotoday.

FIGURE1

Seaweeddemandbyproducttype.

Units:Milliontonnes

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1990200020102020203020402050

DirectfoodconsumptionFoodadditivesAquaculturefeed.Otheruses

SEAWEEDFORECAST

10

DemandforseaweedfoodproductswillstillmainlycomefromcountriesinEastAsia.Inthispartoftheworld,brownkelps,mostcommonlywakameandkombu,areusedin

soup,salads,andotherdishes.Theredseaweednoriisusedprimarilyforsushiorasasnack.

Directfoodseeslimitedincreaseduetolittlepopulationgrowthinthemainconsumingregions.However,we

expectaslightincreaseinpercapitademandduetotheperceivedsustainabilityadvantagesofseaweed.ChangesinfoodcultureandtasteforAsianfoodinEuropeand

NorthAmericacouldaddtothistrend(FrozenFood

Europe,2023).Concernsaboutiodinecontentforsome

keyspecieslimitstheincreaseindirectfoodconsumptioninsomeregionswhereseaweedhasnottraditionallybeenpartofthediet(EUCommission,2022).

Euchematoids,agroupofredseaweeds,aregrown

intropicalareas.Eucheumatoidsareusedtoproducethegellingagentcarrageenan,whichisthemainfoodadditivethatcomesfromseaweed.Foodadditives

producedfromseaweedwillgaininmarketshareovercompetinginputs,duetopricereductionsfromscalingtheproduction.

However,industrializedeconomieswillnotseerising

percapitafoodconsumption,meaningthatthegrowthpotentialforadditivesislimited.Additivesarealso

usedinhighlyprocessedfoods,forwhichtherearealsosubstantialconsumerworriesoverhealthrisks(Belton,etal.,2020).

Intermsofproduction,thetopthreeproducingregionsremainthesame:GreaterChina,SouthEastAsia,and

OECDPacific(seeFigure2).Chinaremainsthelargestplayerbyalargemargin,maintainingtheirshare

ofproductionat60%oftheworldsupply,growing

productionfrom20Mtto36Mt.SouthEastAsia’s

productiongrowsonlyslightly,sotheirsharereduces

from30%to20%ofthetotal.Therestoftheworldgrowsto14%ofthesupplyby2050,butthiskicksoffonlyafter2035.

RegionsoutsideofEastAsiagrowto14%oftheseaweedsupplyby2050.

FIGURE2

Regionalseaweedproductionin2020and2050.

2%

6%

1%

6%

GreaterChina

SouthEastAsiaOECDPaci?c

62%

NorthEastEurasiaRestoftheWorld

2020

2050

30%

20%

59%

14%

Seaweeddevelopment2050

11

SEAWEEDFORECAST

Seaweedgrowth–alternativescenario:officialstatisticsoverestimateproduction

Alargesourceofuncertaintyintheseaweedsectoristhelowqualityofglobalproductiondata.Forinstance,severalsourcesindicatethattheIndonesianseaweedproductionvolumescouldbeoverstatedbyasmuchasfivetoseventimes(Langford,2023;Zhangetal.,2023;

Rieve,2023

).SimilarreportingissuesexistforChineseproduction(Jinetal.,2023).

Inasecondsimulationrun,weadjustfortheclaimthat

thereissignificantoverreporting.Hence,inthiscase

wedonotusetheofficialproductionstatistics.Instead,

wecorrectbrownseaweedproductionto80%,andred

seaweedproductiontoonly20%ofthereportedvolume.Inthiscase,seaweedproductionreaches34Mtin2050,upfromanestimated22Mtin2020(seeFigure3).This

indicatesagrowthofalmost60%,whichislessthaninthebasecase.

Dataquality,reporting,anduncertainty

Therecouldbeseveralreasonsresultingininaccuratereportingofproductiondata,suchasimprecise

assumptionsabouttheseaweedproductionstage,

productivityrates,seasonalvariations,andseaweed

cultivationareas(Zhangetal.,2023).Forinstance,

theestimatedareaforseaweedfarminginIndonesiarangesfrom100,000to270,000hectares(Langford,

2023).Productionreportingbasedonfarmareaisalsoinsensitivetoseasonalandyearlyvariations,whichcaneasilyoccurinproductionwithshortgrowthcycles.For

instance,seaweedcropscanfail,orfarmerscanchoosenottoplantnewseaweediftheenvironmentalconditionsormarketpricesareunfavourable.

Similarly,Jinetal.(2023)foundlargediscrepanciesbetweenreportedseaweedcultivationareasby

conventionalnationalstatisticsanddataacquired

throughremotesensingmethods.Potentialreasonsfor

thedifferenceincludechallengesinattainingaccurate

reportingfromthelargenumberofsmall-scalefarmers,lackofstandardsforestimatingfarmareaandproductionperarea,andvariationincultivationtechniques.Anotherfactorcontributingtoimprecisionisunderreportingof

yearlyproductionbyprocessorsfortax-evasionpurposes(Zhangetal.,2023).

Solutionsimprovingdataaccuracyandquality

Incountrieswithdatareportingchallenges,remote

sensingtechnologies,likesatellitemonitoring,canbeaneffectivesolutiontoobtaingeneralproductiondataat

aregionalornationalscale.However,thesemonitoringtechniqueswillnotbeaccurateonafarmleveliftheyarenotabletopickupondetailslikethetypeof

speciesproducedordifferencesinverticalfarmdesign.Productionestimatesbasedonremotesensingwillstill

needtobeverifiedagainstotherdatathatdocumenthowmuchhasbeenproduced,sold,andexported.

Foodsafetyconcernsandcallsforgreatersupplychain

transparencyandcontrolmayalleviatethecurrent

challengesrelatedtoreportingofproduction.Consumersandlarge-scaleretailersareincreasinglyconcernedabouttransparencyandcontrolacrossfoodsupplychains,andregulatorsarefollowingsuit.Forinstance,intheUS,the

FoodSafetyModernizationAct(FSMA)willintroducenewrequirementsrelatedtotrackingfoodsupplychains(DNV,2024).TheFSMAentersintoforcein2026andcouldbe

expandedtoincludeproductsderivedfromseaweed.Commercialandregulatorypressuretoimprovesupplychaintraceabilitymayalsopositivelycontributetotheestimationofproductiondatabutcouldbechallenginginasectorwithalargeshareofsmall-scale,artisanal

operations.

Indonesianseaweedproductionvolumescouldbeoverstatedbyasmuchasfivetoseventimes.

12

FIGURE3

Seaweeddemandbyproducttype:alternativescenario*.

Units:Milliontonnes

1990200020102020203020402050

DirectfoodconsumptionFoodadditivesAquaculturefeedOtheruses

*assumingproductionofredseaweedgloballyisonly20%ofwhatisreported,andproductionofbrownseaweedgloballyis80%ofwhatisreported

40

30

20

10

0

13

SEAWEEDFORECAST

3CLIMATEIMPACTSAND

BIOLOGICALCHALLENGES

Globalseaweedproductionisalreadyimpactedbyextreme

weathereventslikeheatwavesandtyphoons,becomingmorefrequentwithclimatechange.

14

Climateimpactsandbiologicalchallenges

15

InZanzibar,marineheatwavesandrisingseatemperatureshavealreadyledtodecliningproduction,combinedwiththeeffectoflowsalesprices,disease,andpests(deJognCleyndertetal.,2021).

Similarly,inthePhilippines,thecombinedimpactofpoorwaterqualityandextremeweathereventslikeheatwavesandtyphoonsiscatastrophicforfarminfrastructure,andseaweedgrowth(

TheFishSite,2022

).

Overtime,farmersinsomeregionsadjusttoenviron-

mentalchangesbyreducingtheseaweedfarmingseason,andtherebyreducingtheiryields(TheWorldBank,2023).InthecaseofZanzibar,manyfarmershaveoptedtoleavetheindustry(deJognCleyndertetal.,2021),withthe

resultthatproductionhasdeclinedtothelevelsobservedin2005(FAO,2022).

Poorseedingqualityhaltseucheumatoidproduction

Eucheumatoidsaretheonlyseaweedgroupthathas

seenadownwardproductiontrendinthelastdecade

(FAO,2022).Asopposedtobrownseaweeds,where

seedlingsareproducedinahatchery,theeucheumatoidseaweedscultivatedforcarrageenanproductionhave

beenvegetativelypropagatedsinceproductionstartedinthe1970s.Newproductioncyclesarecommonlystartedfrompiecesofseaweedmaterialfromtheprevious

cycle.Productioninsomeofthemajoreucheumatoid-

producingcountries,likeIndonesiaandthePhilippines,thereforetypicallyconsistsofmonoculturesofthesamespecies,withlittlegeneticvariation.Thismakesthe

productionparticularlyvulnerabletodiseases,pests,andenvironmentalchanges,whichhavehadmajorimpacts

onproductivityovertheyears.Lackofgood-quality

seedlingshasbeenratedasthenumberonechallenge

forseaweedfarmersinIndonesiaandthePhilippines

(HatchInnovationServices,2024).Koreannoriproductionexperiencedsimilarchallengesinthe1970s,whichwereresolvedthroughtargetedbreedingpractices(Hwang&Park,2020).

Furthermore,themajorityofeucheumatoidseaweedis

producedbylocalsmall-scalefarmers(HatchInnovationServices,2022),withlimitedaccesstocapitalforinvestinginresilienceinnovation.Theeconomicconsequencesofdecliningseaweedproductioncanhaveadetrimental

effectonthesecoastalcommunities.Severalinternationalcollaborationeffortshavebeensuggestedasameasuretoimproveresilienceinseaweedproductionthrough

breedingprogrammes(

HatchInnovationServices,2024

;Huetal.,2021).

ThekelpspeciesSaccharinaandUndaria(brown

seaweeds),whicharegrownatanindustrialscaletoday,aretemperatespecieswhichthriveincolderwaters.

LikeEucheumatoids,thesespeciesarevulnerableto

increasingseatemperaturesandmarineheatwaves(Huetal.,2021).However,comparedtoeucheumatoids,kelpspecieshavetheadvantageofhavingbeenselectivelybredforcenturies,andtheirlifecyclesarewell-knownincomparison(Huetal.,2021).

Lookingforward

Thefutureofseaweedfarmingwilldependonthe

industry’sabilitytoadapttothemajorchallengesitfaceswithpoorseedingmaterial,diseases,andincreasing

climateimpacts.Adaptationstrategieswillhavetoincludebreedingprogrammesformoredisease-andheat-

resilientcultivarsandmovingcultivationtodeeperorcolderwaters.Itshouldbenotedthattheseadaptationstrategieswillincreasetheup-frontinvestmentcosts

ofseaweedfarming,particularlyinlow-costregions.

IncountrieslikeIndonesiaandthePhilippines,wherethemajorityofproductionisbylocal,small-scale

farmers,thiscouldresultinconsiderableshiftsinhowseaweedproductionisorganized.Thisalsoplaysintothecompetitivelandscapebyreducingthedifferenceinproductioncostsbetweenhigh-costandlow-costcountries.

Thefutureofseaweedfarmingwilldependonthe

industry’sabilitytoadapttothemajorchallengesitfaceswithpoorseedingmaterial,diseases,andincreasing

climateimpacts.

SEAWEEDFORECAST

16

4CO-EXISTENCE

Thefutureofseaweedproductionwillbe

impactedbythecommencementofaraceforspaceamongtheoceanindustries,

spurredonbytheenergytransitionandtherapidincreaseinoffshorewind.

DNV’sEnergyTransitionOutlook(DNV,2023a)findsthattheglobal2050installedcapacityforoffshorewindwillexceed1,500GW.DNV’sSpatialCompetitionForecast

(DNV,2023b)buildsonthattoestimatethataround

275,000km2ofoceanareawillbeoccupiedbywind

farms(seeFigure4).Whenincludingallotherocean

industrieswithoffshoreinstallations(likeoilandgas

andmarineaquaculture),theestimatedspaceneeded

globallyisroughlyequivalenttotheareaofPoland(DNV,2023b).

Wefindthattheentirepredicteddemandforseaweedin2050couldbemetbyplacingseaweedfarmswithinwindfarms.Globally,theareaneededtomeetseaweeddemandin2050,isintherangeof3.5%to6.5%ofthe

offshoreareaneededforwindfarms.Thisassumesan

averageglobalyieldof35tonnesperhectare.Co-locationwouldrequirethatseaweedproductionwhichiscurrentlyhappeninginshelteredareas,likeEucheumatoids,wouldhavetomovefartheroffshore.

Co-locatingseaweedcultivationwithoffshorewindcanprovidebenefitslikecostreductionthroughe.g.sharedinfrastructure,logistics,andemergencyresponse.For

offshorewindoperators,seaweedcanprovideadditionalvaluecreationfromtheoffshoreareaandbeanature-

positivecontributionthroughtheprovisionofecosystem

services.Itfitswellasaco-existenceoptiontobe

considered,asoffshorewindtendersincreasinglyconsiderco-existenceandmulti-userequirements(DNV,2023b).

Comparedtofishfarming,seaweedcultivationcanbe

moresuitableforco-existencewithoffshorewind,asit

involvesfeweroperationsandalowerriskprofile(van

denBurgetal.,2020).Althoughco-locationprovides

opportunities,itcanalsoposerisksforbothindustries,

e.g.accidentsandinterferencewithindustrialoperations.

FIGURE4

Marineareaneededforoffshorestructures(seaweedincludedinmarineaquaculture).

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Units:Thousandkm2

1990200020102020203020402050

Marineaquaculture(incl.seaweed)OffshoreoilandgasOffshorewind

Co-existence

17

Uncertaintyrelatedtoriskfactorsandtechnical

feasibilitycanhinderco-locationdevelopments(O’Sheaetal.,2022).Itisthereforeimportanttotargetthese

uncertaintiesthroughtrialprojects.

Seaweedfarmsandoffshorewindalreadymakeuseof

thesameareasinseveralChineseprovinces,including

Jiangsu,Zhejiang,andFujian(seeFigure5).Forinstance,theLongyuanRudongIntertidalOffshoreWindFarm

(Jiangsuprovince)wasdevelopedintheearly2010sinanareaalreadyusedforseaweedfarming.

TheEUAlgaeStrategysuggeststhatmemberstates

'facilitateaccesstomarinespace,identifyoptimalsitesforseaweedfarmingandincludeseaweedfarmingandseamulti-useinmaritimespatialplans'(EUCommission,2022).InEurope,severalplansareunderwayand

seaweedfarmingpilotsinoffshorewindfarmsaresubjecttointensiveresearch.AspartoftheEUlighthouseproject

OLAMUR(OffshoreLow-trophicAquacultureinMulti-UsescenarioRealisation),thefirstharvestofseaweedattheKriegersFlakwindfarmtookplacein2024(Vattenfall,

2024).Furthermore,AmazonhasfundedademonstrationprojectforseaweedcultivationwithinaDutchwindfarmplannedtobeoperatingin2024(Casey,2024).

Besidesitsco-usewithoffshorewind,seaweedcanplay

arolewithinintegratedmulti-trophicaquaculture(IMTA)

systems.Inthesesystems,seaweedisfarmedadjacenttoordownstreamfromafishfarm,therebyextractingexcessnutrientsfromspiltfeedandfishwaste.Theadditional

nutrientscanboostseaweedgrowthalsoduringseasonswhennutrientconcentrationintheseawaterislow(SINTEF,2023).InNorway,seaweedproducersFollaAlgerand

OceanForestaretestingtheseconcepts.

FIGURE5

OffshorewindturbinesinstalledinthesamelocationasseaweedfarmsintheJiangsuprovince,China.

Source:NASALandsat-8scene,courtesyofTerraColorNextGenandU.S.GeologicalSurvey.

SEAWEEDFORECAST

18

Conclusions

19

5CONCLUSIONS

Seaweedisseenasasustainablesourceoffoodandincreasingly

asanalternativeinputinmanysupplychains.Seaweedcancreateemploymentopportunitiesincoastalareasandprovideecosystemservices.Inthisforecast,weprovideourobjectiveviewonthemost-likelyfutureforseaweed.

Wefindthatseaweedproductionwillgrowbetween60%and75%to2050,andthemajoritywillstillbeproducedinEastAsia.Newusesofseaweedareslowlyenteringthemarket,butdirectfoodconsumptionandfoodadditiveswillremainthemainuses.

Toanchorstrategydevelopmentintheseaweedsector

inmorerealisticdata,thereisaneedfornewreporting

standards.Duetothehighlikelihoodofofficialstatisticsbeingoverestimated,wecontrastaforecastbased

onofficialstatisticswithoneinwhichweaccountfor

overestimation.Wefindthatseaweedgrowsmore

slowlyinthecasewherecurrentstatisticsarebelievedtooverestimateproduction.Ongoinginitiativesaimedat

improvingfoodsafetythroughincreasedtraceabilityin

thesupplychainwilllikelyimprovethequalityofreporteddataintheyearstocome.

Theseaweedindustryisfacingseverechallenges

fromclimatechangecombinedwithpoorseedling

quality.Theserisksneedtobemitigatedthrough

sector-wideefforts.Muchoftheseaweediscurrentlyfarmedwithsimpletechniques,andthesectorisripeforindustrialization.Introductionofnew,innovative

farmingpracticesandbreedingtechniquescanleadtomajorimprovementsincropyieldsandresiliencetoenvironmentalstressors.

Theraceforoceanspacebetweenoffshoreindustries

willbeamajoropportunityforseaweedindustrialization,astheoffshorewindsectorincreasinglyconsidersco-

existence.In2050,theentireworld'sseaweeddemand

couldtheoreticallybeproducedonaverysmallfractionoftheworld’soffshorewindfarmareas.Someplayersintheoffshorewindindustryarealreadyexperimentingwiththis.

Inconclusion,ourforecastfindsthattheseaweedindustrywillgrowsubstantiallyintheyearstocome.Thefuture

oftheindustrywilllargelybedeterminedbyitsabilitytoindustrialize,improvetransparencythroughthesupply

chain,andtakeadvantageofsynergieswithothersectorsintheBlueEconomy.

THETENWORLDREGIONS

Keysocio-economicdriversforouranalysisarederivedforthe10regionsshownonthemap.

NorthEastEurasia(NEE)GreaterChina(CHN)

IndianSubcontinent(IND)SouthEastAsia(SEA)

OECDPaci?c(OPA)

NorthAmerica(NAM)LatinAmerica(LAM)Europe(EUR)

Sub-SaharanAfrica(SSA)

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MEA)

Ourapproach

21

OURAPPROACH

WhatwilltheBlueEconomylookliketowards2050?

HowcantheBlueEconomycontributetoservingaworldpopulationbeyondninebillionin2050?Whatarethekeyinterlinkagesbetweenocean-basedindustries,andthe

barrierstoproductivityarisingfromglobaloceanhealthchallenges?WhatarethespatialrequirementsoftheBlueEconomyin2050?Totrytoanswerthesequestions,we

havedevelopedthisforecastprovidingasystemicandbalancedviewofocean-basedindustriesbetweennowandmid-century.

TheSeaweedForecastisthefifthinstalmentintheOcean’sFutureto2050seriesofpublications.Theprevious

fourincludetheOcean’sFutureto2050,acomplete

overviewoftheBlue