外文翻譯--巴西旅游業(yè)的動態(tài)分析：挑戰(zhàn)和建議

1、中文3310字原 文:an analysis of the dynamics of the tourism industry in brazil：challenges and recommendations 出 處： international journal of contemporary hospitality management 作 者： filipe sobral,alketa peci,gustavo souza abstractpurpose the main purpose of this study is to present an analysis of the dynam

2、ics of the tourism market in south america and, more specifically, in brazil, by measuring and analyzing the growth in tourists arrivals to the region between 1998 and 2002.design/methodology/approach this study uses the shift-share technique that decomposes the growth of the number of tourists into

3、 various components, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.findings despite the fact that brazil is the leading tourist destination in south america, the study shows that brazil has been losing ground in relation to some of its neighbors in south america. the study

4、also revealed the impact of 9/11 and argentinas crises and the growing participation of the european tourist in brazil.originality/value despite some limitations, this technique has the advantage of focusing on a region scarcely studied in mainstream tourism researches and offering brazilian policy-

5、makers a new methodology such that they may take advantage of emerging opportunities and create competitive advantages for the country.keywords :tourism, public policy, brazil, south americaintroductiontourism is a sector experiencing major growth in terms of the global economy. ever since the 1950s

6、 when international travel became accessible to the public in general, the number of tourists has been growing at an average rate of 6.8 percent per year. estimates are that in 2005 the number of incoming tourists totaled 808 million. the trends for the future of the tourism industry indicate that b

7、y 2020 the number of incoming international tourists will be in the order of 1.6 billion (world tourism organization, 2006). according to world travel and tourism council it is expected that the tourism will contribute 3.6 percent to global gdp in 2006 (world travel and tourism council, 2006). in vi

8、ew of the importance of the tourism sector, this study seeks to contribute with another potentially useful technical analysis tool for evaluating the sector. the objective is to provide policy makers in brazil with a systematic approach towards managing their tourism efforts and activities. the arti

9、cle concludes with a series of recommendations for public policies in the area of tourism based on the discussion of results of the model integrated with the results of other studies and research.the tourism industry in south americain terms of economic impact, tourism is a recent phenomenon in sout

10、h america. with the exception of the 1960-1970 decade, the growth of tourism on the american continent (north, central and south america) was always below the world average(world tourism organization, 2005). factors such as the great distance from the major tourist-generating markets, the timidity o

11、f the regional economies, as well as the prolonged economic recessions, had a negative impact on the development of regional and intra-regional tourism (santana, 2000). only in the 1990s south america emerged as a potential tourism destination, with brazil, argentina and chile as the main players in

12、 the region. factors like the transition to democracy, the consolidation of economic blocks, the growth of commerce with the major world markets and the improvement of basic public services, contributed positively to the development of tourism in the region. in conjunction with this the opening up o

13、f the markets and massive investments in infrastructure facilitated the flow of tourism to traditional and non-traditional destinations in south america(gouvea, 2004; santana, 2000).even though the growth in the americas has followed the worldwide trend, tourism has an unrealized growth potential in

14、 the majority of south american countries. only recently some countries have adopted tourism as a strategic alternative. in accordance with projections of the world travel and tourism council (wttc) for 2006, it is expected that us$163,362 billion will be generated in economic activity (total demand

15、)by the tourism industry. an impact of 7.2 percent on the gdp of latin american countries is expected, as well as the generation of 12.1 million jobs, namely 6.9 percent of the total (world travel and tourism council, 2006).the tourism industry in brazilwith respect to brazil, it is possible to affi

16、rm that tourism is a relatively important economic activity, with great future growth potential. the contribution to gdp of the tourism industry in brazil is estimated at 2.8 percent for 2006 (us$25.3 billion),increasing in nominal terms to us$ 36 billion (2.7 percent of gdp) by 2016 (world travel a

17、nd tourism council, 2006). the importance of the tourism sector in brazil becomes more apparent when one evaluates its social impact, especially in generating jobs. estimates of the ministry of labor and employment reveal that over the 2003/2005 three-year period, the economic activity of tourism ge

18、nerated 560,000 new jobs (embratur, 2006). for 2006, estimates of the total number of job positions generated by the tourism industry are 5.5 million, in other words 6.4 percent of the job total. by 2016, the total should reach approximately 9 million job positions, corresponding to 6.6 percent of t

19、he total (world travel and tourism council, 2006). despite the fact that brazil is the largest latin american country with incomparable cultural and ecological exuberance and diversity, both the public and private sectors have underestimated tourism. the analysis of historical data on tourism in bra

20、zil shows that it was only in the middle of the 1990s that the tourism industry really took off. the year 2000 saw the highest number ever recorded in terms of tourist arrivals in the country with 5.3 million international arrivals. for brazil, argentina is the main source of incoming tourists with

21、922,484 tourists,followed by the usa (705,997), portugal (336,988), uruguay (309,732), germany(294,989), italy (276,563) and france (224,160) (embratur, 2005a, b). due to the economic crisis that argentina suffered in 2002, its participation in the influx of tourists to brazil fell from 32.8 percent

22、 in 2000 to 19.24 percent in 2004. however, the country is still in top place among the main tourist groupings entering brazil. with respect to the average expense per capita/day, the average spending by international tourists was us$87.99 and the average length of stay was 13.5 days (embratur, 2005

23、a, b).research conducted into the image of the country abroad confirms the fact that the attraction of brazil as a tourist destination is based on its natural beauty and exoticism,though the negative perceptions regarding social and economic conditions of the country, as well as the lack of security

24、, coexist with this positive image. however,research indicated that the respondents do not have a good perception regarding the social and economic conditions of the country and, furthermore, are worried about security issues when visiting the country (rezende-parker et al., 2003).the studythis stud

25、y uses a version of the shift-share technique, developed by esteban-marquillas (1972), to examine the characteristics and dynamics of the tourism industry in south america. the purpose is to measure and analyze the growth in tourists arrivals to south america (argentina, bolivia, brazil, chile, colo

26、mbia,ecuador, paraguay, peru, uruguay e venezuela) from three different regions of the world (europe, americas and residual region which includes asia, africa, the middle east and south pacific countries) between 1998 and 2002. the shift-share technique decomposes the growth of the number of tourist

27、s into various components that can explain its behavior, enabling in-depth diagnosis of the dynamics of the sector in the period.the selected countries in south america were chosen to compose the benchmark because they share some significant similarities in terms of potential attractiveness and imag

28、e. thus, each countrys performance can be compared to the collective performance of the benchmark. the data for tourist arrivals are compiled from the statistical yearbook, published by the statistical division of the united nations department of economical and social affairs (united nations, 2005).

29、resultsthe main results of the study are the following:brazil is the country that receives the highest number of international tourists in south america (over 30 percent), followed by argentina (approximately 20 percent), uruguay (11 percent) and chile (11 percent).as for the tourist-generating coun

30、tries to south america, the americas (over 70 percent) and europe (23 percent) continue to be the leading tourist exporters.between 1998 and 2002 there was a marked reduction in the number of international tourists, representing a drop of over 18 percent in the number of tourist arrivals to south am

31、erica, mainly because the 9/11 and the political and economic instability of some of the countries in the region, especially argentina,colombia and venezuela.despite the global decrease of incoming tourists to south america, the number of european tourists increased during the period under considera

32、tion (5 percent).with respect to brazil, its global performance fell well below expectations and it lost market share, losing more than a 1 million tourists (221.5 percent).the foregoing analysis made it clear that this reduction was due to a weak performance in the americas, which was partly offset

33、 by a good performance from europe.the results indicate that the number of european tourists visiting brazil increased by 235,503 (an increase of more than 20 percent). according to the analysis, brazil enjoys a competitive advantage in attracting european tourist and it is specialized in this regio

34、n.the results also revealed a marked reduction of more than 1.2 million tourists from the americas to brazil, which can be explained due to: crisis in the main tourist-generating countries like the us (9/11) and argentina (economic crisis); a competitive disadvantage in attracting american tourists;

35、 and a non-specialization in this market.ecuador (28.1 percent) and peru (18.3 percent) were the only two south american countries that increased the number of tourist arrivals during the period. these countries present competitive advantages in relation to the remaining countries of south america i

36、n terms of attracting tourists.argentina also had a good performance, despite a slight decrease in the number of international tourists (25 percent), though compared to the global growth rate of the benchmark (218.2 percent) this can still be seen as a highly positive result.argentina possesses a st

37、rong competitive advantage in attracting american tourists and a competitive disadvantage in the european market.bolivia, chile, colombia and paraguay produced a consistent performance in terms of the market share they possess. of these countries, chile has a disadvantage in the only region in which

38、 it is specialized (the americas) and advantages in the regions in which it is not specialized.uruguay (241.7 percent), venezuela (237 percent) are the countries that performed worst, posting a decline in the growth rate of more than double the reduction of the benchmark (218 percent). both of them

39、had competitive disadvantages in attracting tourists from all regions.conclusions and recommendationstourism is a strategic sector for brazilian development as it offers opportunities to be seized, while at the same time presents challenges to policy-makers in terms of adequate conception and implem

40、entation of tourism strategies. the results of this study enable the following conclusions about the brazilian case.firstly, the study corroborated the evidence that the stage of development of the tourism sector is closely linked to the degree of socio-economic development of the country. it is no

41、coincidence that the major economic players in south america(brazil, argentina and chile) are also the main host countries for tourists in the region. however, the situation is problematic, particularly in brazil, due to the difficulty in attracting private investments in infrastructure sectors. the

42、 situation is even more problematic in comparative terms, in view of the fact that countries like chile have produced more consistent results in terms of attracting investments to infrastructure, showing higher competitiveness potential in the medium and long-term.secondly, the study revealed the im

43、pact of 9/11 and argentinas crises in the growth rates for the sector. the impact was felt more strongly in brazil since the country still has a strong dependency on tourism from the americas. however, the study showed that when compared with the superior performance of other south american countrie

44、s,brazil faces strong competition, specifically from argentina.thirdly, research of the image of brazil abroad highlights the existence of a negative perception about the social and economic conditions, as well as the lack of security, though this perception does not prevail for countries like argen

45、tina. this image factor, associated with others such as the high cost of domestic transport and the inability to distinguish what makes brazil different in relation to other spanish-speaking countries may have an influence on the competitive disadvantage of brazil in relation to the americas.譯 文： 巴西

46、旅游業(yè)的動態(tài)分析：挑戰(zhàn)和建議摘要目的本研究的主要目的是通過測量和分析巴西地區(qū)游客在1998年至2002年間的增長提交南美旅游市場的動態(tài)分析。設(shè)計/方法論/方式本研究采用移位共享技術(shù)，將游客數(shù)量的增長分解為不同的構(gòu)成，從而深入分析不同區(qū)域間的動態(tài)分析。結(jié)果盡管巴西是南美洲的主要旅游目的地，但研究顯示巴西已經(jīng)失去有關(guān)南美鄰國的部分市場。研究還顯示了911、阿根廷危機和歐洲游客參與的增長對巴西的影響。獨創(chuàng)性/價值盡管遇到一些限制，但這種技術(shù)具有集中在一個地區(qū)主流旅游產(chǎn)品的研究的優(yōu)勢，為巴西的政策制定者提供了新的方法論使他們可以利用正在出現(xiàn)的機會，并為國家創(chuàng)造競爭優(yōu)勢。關(guān)鍵詞：旅游，公共政策，巴西，南

47、美洲簡介旅游業(yè)是一個經(jīng)歷了全球經(jīng)濟增長期的行業(yè)。自從20世紀(jì)50年代，國際旅游為公眾所普遍接受時，游客人數(shù)以每年平均增長率為百分之6.8的速度增長。據(jù)估計，在2005年來港旅客總數(shù)達(dá)8.08億。旅游業(yè)的未來發(fā)展趨勢表明，到2020年國際旅游的收入將達(dá)到1.6億美元（世界旅游組織，2006）。據(jù)世界旅行及旅游理事會預(yù)期2006年旅游業(yè)將貢獻全球gdp的百分之3.6（世界旅游及旅行理事會，2006）。從旅游部門的重要性來看，本研究的目的，是與另一個實用的技術(shù)分析工具一起做貢獻，以評估各部門。其目的是為巴西的決策者提供一個管理他們旅游工作和活動的系統(tǒng)的方法。文章最后提出了一系列政策，供市民在旅游業(yè)方

48、面對綜合其他研究成果為基礎(chǔ)的模型結(jié)果進行討論。南美洲旅游業(yè)從經(jīng)濟影響而言，旅游業(yè)是南美洲的一個新現(xiàn)象。在1960年至1970年這特殊的十年，旅游業(yè)在美洲大陸（北美，中美和南美）的增長一直低于世界平均水平（世界旅游組織，2005）。如主要旅游市場的巨大差距，對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的膽怯，以及長期的經(jīng)濟衰退等因素，都對區(qū)域間和區(qū)域內(nèi)的發(fā)展產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響（桑塔納，2000）。只有在20世紀(jì)90年代，南美成為一個潛在的旅游目的地與巴西，阿根廷和智利一起作為該地區(qū)的主要參與者。如向民主過渡，鞏固經(jīng)濟區(qū)塊，與全球主要市場的貿(mào)易增長和基礎(chǔ)公共服務(wù)的改善等因素，為積極推動旅游業(yè)在該地區(qū)的發(fā)展作做出了貢獻。與此相開放的市場和

49、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的大規(guī)模投資增加了南美洲傳統(tǒng)和非傳統(tǒng)旅游目的地的客流量（gouvea，2004:桑塔納，2000）。即使美洲的增長遵循了全球趨勢，旅游業(yè)也存在在南美大多數(shù)國家都未實現(xiàn)的增長潛力。直到最近一些國家采用了一種旅游戰(zhàn)略選擇。按照世界旅游及旅行理事會（wttc）對2006年的預(yù)測，有16332億美元將在經(jīng)濟活動中（總需求）由旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生。預(yù)計將影響拉美國家國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分之7.2，以及12.1個就業(yè)機會的產(chǎn)生，即總額的百分之6.9（世界旅游及旅行理事會，2006）。巴西旅游業(yè)關(guān)于巴西，可以肯定的是旅游業(yè)是一個在未來具有很大增長潛力的重要的經(jīng)濟活動。2006年巴西旅游業(yè)的gdp貢獻預(yù)計為2.8

50、個百分點（253億美元），2016年名義增加360億美元（國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的百分之2.7）（世界旅游及旅行理事會，2006）。當(dāng)評估其社會影響，特別是在創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機會方面時，旅游部門在巴西的重要性變得更加明顯。就勞動和就業(yè)部估計顯示，在2003/2005年的三年期間，旅游業(yè)的經(jīng)濟活動產(chǎn)生了56萬新的就業(yè)機會（embratur,2006）。2006年，對旅游業(yè)所產(chǎn)生的就業(yè)崗位總數(shù)估計是550萬，換句話說，是所有工作崗位總數(shù)的百分之6.4。到2016年，總額應(yīng)達(dá)到約900萬就業(yè)崗位，相當(dāng)于總數(shù)的百分之6.6（世界旅游及旅行理事會，2006）。盡管巴西是拉丁美洲最大的具有無可匹敵的文化和生態(tài)活力多樣性的國

51、家，但公共和私營部門都低估了旅游業(yè)。巴西旅游業(yè)的歷史數(shù)據(jù)分析表明，只有在20世紀(jì)90年代中期，旅游業(yè)才真正起飛。2000年看到了有史以來的最高的國內(nèi)方面訪港旅客與530萬國際旅客的數(shù)字記錄。巴西、阿根廷是922484名游客的主要涌入的地區(qū)，其次是美國（705997）、葡萄牙（336988）、烏拉圭（309732）、德國（294989）、意大利（276563）和法國（224160）（embratur，2005a，b）。由于阿根廷在2002年遭受經(jīng)濟危機，巴西的游客參與涌入的百分比由2000年的百分之32.8下降到2004年的百分之19.4。然而，無論如何該國在進入巴西的各主要旅游集團中仍處于領(lǐng)先地位。在人均費用/日方面，國際游客的平均消費是87.99美元，逗留的平均時間是13.5天（embratur，2005a，b）。研究進行到該國的海外形象時證明了一個事實，巴西作為旅游目的地的吸引力是建立在它的自然風(fēng)光和異國情調(diào)上的，雖然對該國的社會、經(jīng)濟條件和安全的缺乏存在