發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)外直接投資的決定因素【外文翻譯】

1、本科畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）外 文 翻 譯the determinants of direct foreign investment in developing countriesthe participation of developing countries in the total inflows of direct foreign investment (fdi) has varied considerably over the last 25 years, increasing from 15% in 1980 to 46% in 1982, leveling off at slightly

2、 over 20% during the last four years. it must be pointed out, however, that the motives behind these international capital flows are still substantially different than those related to the inflows of fdi to developing countries, in spite of the changes that have taken place over the last decades. fo

3、r example, the search for agricultural or mineral resources is much less important today than it was at the beginning of the 20th century.on the other hand, the current movement of these flows is extremely complex, and is subject to a wide variety of factors related to the competitive environment in

4、 which the firms operate, to their specific characteristics, and to economic factors in the home and host countries.the objective of this article is to estimate, based on panel data, the main determinants of fdi in developing countries. as shall be seen, factors such as the size and rate of growth o

5、f the product, the availability of skilled labor, the receptivity of foreign capital, the country risk rating, and the behavior of the stock market play important roles in fdi. furthermore, by applying the causality test in a panel data context, it was possible to demonstrate the non-existence of th

6、e widely held belief that direct foreign investment has a positive effect upon the product. however, the procedure used to test causality showed, to the contrary, that this phenomenon acts in the opposite sense, i.e., that generally it is the countrys product that affects direct foreign investment.o

7、ur study is structured as follows: in section 2 we provide a review of the theoretical literature dealing with the determinants of direct foreign investment. in section 3, we examine recent studies that analyze the relation between fdi and several economic factors. in section 4, we outline our model

8、 and the hypotheses to be tested, and present the results obtained (ver original). the results are then analyzed in section 5. in section 6 we test the causality relation between foreign investment and product. lastly, in section 7, we present the conclusions of our study.the determinants of fdi: th

9、eory overviewin this section, we review the theoretical literature dealing with the determinants of fdi. an aspect that stands out is that most of these studies emphasize factors that are specific to multinational firms, specifically those related to competition among the firms themselves and with l

10、ocal firms, with less attention being given to location factors.although the first theoretical studies of the determinants of fdi go back to adam smith, stuart mill and torrens, one of the first to address the issue was ohlin (1933). according to this author, direct foreign investment was motivated

11、mainly by the possibility of high profitability in growing markets, along with the possibility of financing these investments at relatively low rates of interest in the host country. other determinants were the necessity to overcome trade barriers and to secure sources of raw materials.hymer (1960)

12、ushers in a new tradition in the study of multinational enterprises (mne). if mne are able to compete with local firms that have a much better knowledge of the local and market and environment, it is because mne present some sort of compensatory advantage, such as:1、 imperfect competition, for examp

13、le, as a result of a product differentiation2、 imperfect competition in the factor market, for example, access to patented or proprietary knowledge, discrimination regarding access to capital, or skill advantages3、 internal or external economies of scale, including those arising from vertical integr

14、ation4、 governmental intervention, i.e., restriction on imports.with these advantages, mne would prefer to supply the foreign market by way of direct investments instead of through exports. in an analogous manner, mne would not be willing to license production to local firms if the local firms were

15、uncertain about the value of the license or if the know-how transfer costs (property rights) were too high.kindleberger (1969) slightly modifies hymers analysis. instead of mnf behavior determining the market structure, it is the market structure monopolistic competition - that will determine the co

16、nduct of the firm, by internalizing its production. caves (1971), also develops a similar analysis, in which structure dictates conduct. fdi will be made basically in sectors that are dominated by oligopolies. if there is product differentiation, horizontal investments may take place, i.e., in the s

17、ame sector. if there is no product differentiation, vertical investments will be made, in sectors that are behind in the productive chain of firms. the existence of fdi is further related to trade barriers, as a way of avoiding uncertainties in supplies, or as a way of imposing barriers to new firms

18、 on the external market.thus, the hypothesis of direct investment being determined by specific assets that compensate the initial disadvantage faced by foreign firms in relation to local firms went on to become the hkc tradition, named after hymer, kindleberger and caves. markusen and venables (1995

19、) developed a model along the same line, comparing the importance of multinational firms to foreign trade. the presence of multinational firms (with regard to trade) increases as countries become more similar in terms of income, and in terms of the relative allotment of factors and technology.a seco

20、nd line of studies of the determinants of fdi is based on the idea of transaction cost internalization. buckley and casson (1976) and (1981), and buckley (1985) were the first to develop this hypothesis, starting with the idea that the intermediate product markets are imperfect, having higher transa

21、ction costs, when managed by different firms. when markets are integrated by mne, these costs would be minimized. mne have proprietary assets with regard to marketing, designs, patents, trademarks, innovative capacity, etc., whose transfer may be costly for being intangible assets, or due to a good

22、sense of opportunity, or even because they are diffuse, and thus difficult to sell or lease.the internalization theory emphasizes the intermediary product market and the formation of international production networks. the theorys main strength may lie in its capacity to address the dilemma between t

23、he licensing of production to a foreign agent and own production. therefore, the firm must make two decisions: location and mode of control. when production and control are located in the home country, the firm exports; when production and control take place in the host country, fdi is made. normall

24、y, these decisions concern the several stages of product internationalization.also, within a framework that could be classified as microeconomic, there is the work of john dunning. his analysis begins by stating that the ownership of dissimilar assets may be considered as one of the factors responsi

25、ble for the existence of multinational firms. dunning develops an approach that must be understood, in his view, as a paradigm (in the sense that it brings together conflicting theories, with no single outcome) known as oli (ownership, location, internalization). this paradigm may be schematically p

26、resented as follows:foreign firms hold advantages over domestic firms in a given sector as a result of privileged ownership of certain tangible or intangible assets that are only available to firms of that same nationality.based on this paradigm, dunning outlines four reasons for a firm to invest ab

27、road: the searches for resources, for markets, for efficiency, and for new strategic assets. the dynamics between knowledge assets and location factors have dictated the upsurge in multinational investments over the last decades - mainly the search for strategic assets. in spite of the shifting, in

28、recent years, of multinational activity towards developing countries, either market-seeking or resource-seeking, the main novelty is the increase in investments in developing countries in search of strategic assets, altering the nature of the location factors. if, on one hand, knowledge assets (inta

29、ngible) can cross national borders, with which multinational firms would have a competitive edge in seeking strategic assets in countries other than their own, on the other, the location of these assets is increasingly influenced by the existence of activity clusters, which are complementary.another

30、 line of thinking is represented by the product cycle model proposed by vernon (1966). according to this model, since innovations are labor savers, they initially appear in those countries that are more capital intensive, especially the us (the model was developed in the mid-60s). gradually, product

31、ion is relocated to countries that are less capital intensive, and lastly, to developing countries. at the same time, production in richer countries is reoriented towards new products that incorporate innovations in products and processes. this model was partially responsible for a set of studies th

32、at regarded the spreading of multinational firms as being sequential, taking place in stages. the firms would initially supply the export market, then establish trade representatives abroad, and eventually end up setting up production in target markets by way of subsidiaries.also along the productio

33、n internationalization line of thinking, for reasons endogenous to the firm, we have the studies developed by graham (1978), (1998) and (2000). according to these studies, the emergence of mne is a result of oligopolistic interaction as firms grow, as a risk reduction strategy. in his most recent st

34、udy, the author employs game theory in order to develop a simplified two-country, one-sector model to analyze the entrance of a firm in a foreign country, and to study the reaction to the entrance of a firm from another country in the local market. the relevant point here is that the rivalry between

35、 firms is an important dimension which is not always considered in mnf studies.one of the most promising approaches may be the work of cantwell summarized in cantwell (2000). this approach considers the technological accumulation concept as an internal and cumulative process to the firm. since techn

36、ology is tacit, meaning that it is not transferred without costs, firms will develop their capacities and knowledge in unique and different manners. thus, competition among firms is basically technological. innovation is the main profit maker. the internationalizing of production allows firms to use

37、 their knowledge and innovating potential in other environments, increasing their specific advantages. also, expansion leads to adaptation, allowing for more innovation.consequently, the firm then deploys its knowledge through international technology networks, investing in other centers so as to ga

38、in access to new knowledge. the hymer-kindleberger-caves paradigm thus does not hold, for the internationalization of production is also kindled by technological competition.determinants of fdi: empirical studiesempirical studies that attempt to estimate the importance of the different determinants

39、of fdi concentrate more on attraction factors, i.e., location factors, since available data make it difficult to identify which countries the investments come from, unless a large set of countries and years is analyzed. the capital propriety advantages, for example, mentioned in some of the studies

40、outlined in section 2 as an important push-factor, are more difficult to be observed, and depend on research involving firms. the main variables normally used are the size of the market, the rate of gnp growth, economic stability, the degree of openness of the economy, as well as several other insti

41、tutional variables, as shall be seen.however, the relation between fdi and economic growth deserves special attention. if, on one hand, economic growth is a powerful stimulant to the inflow of fdi, on the other, an increase in foreign investment since this would mean an increase in the existing capi

42、tal stock (greenfield investment) would also be one of the factors responsible for economic growth, meaning the existence of an endogenously problem. there are, also, other studies that deal with proving the relation between fdi and the level of economic activity.regarding the determinants of fdi, i

43、t must be stated that there are substantial differences between the flows that only involve developing countries, whether between home and host countries, and those in which the host countries are developing countries. according to dunning (2002), in the former case strategic asset-seeking investmen

44、ts take place, in which fdi is used in mergers and acquisitions, seeking horizontal efficiency. in the second case, investments are characterized by the search for markets, and resources, thus being of vertical efficiency.source: marcelo jos braga nonnenberg and mrio jorge cardoso de mendona. the de

45、terminants of direct foreign investment in developing countries .brazilian association of graduate programs in economics, 2004: p61-80.譯文：發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)外直接投資的決定因素發(fā)展中國(guó)家在近25年來(lái)參與對(duì)外直接投資有很大的差異，由1980年的15%增加到1982年的46%，在近四年內(nèi)趨于20%。然而，必須指出，這些國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的最終目的仍舊與發(fā)展中國(guó)家的對(duì)外直接投資有實(shí)質(zhì)的區(qū)別，盡管在過(guò)去的幾十年里一直有變化。例如，如今與20世紀(jì)之初相比，尋找農(nóng)業(yè)或礦物資源遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不

46、那么重要。另一方面，這些當(dāng)前的現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)是非常復(fù)雜的，其具體特點(diǎn)是受到母國(guó)和東道國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素及多種因素的相關(guān)公司操作的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境的影響。本文的目的是評(píng)估，基于面板數(shù)據(jù)，找到對(duì)外直接投資在發(fā)展中國(guó)家的主要決定因素。應(yīng)該看到，如規(guī)模和產(chǎn)品的增長(zhǎng)速度因素，熟練勞動(dòng)力的供應(yīng)，外資的接受能力，國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)級(jí)，和在對(duì)外直接投資中發(fā)揮重要作用的股票的市場(chǎng)行為。此外，通過(guò)運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)中的因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)，它是可以證明很多人都有的一個(gè)想法，即對(duì)外直接投資對(duì)生產(chǎn)具有積極的影響。然而，用來(lái)測(cè)試表明因果關(guān)系的程序，相反，這一現(xiàn)象的行為表明的是相反的意義，即通常情況是該國(guó)的產(chǎn)品，會(huì)影響對(duì)外直接投資。我們的研究結(jié)構(gòu)如下：在第2章我們

47、提供了理論文獻(xiàn)回顧與對(duì)外直接投資的決定因素處理。在第3章中我們來(lái)研究分析最近研究的對(duì)外直接投資與若干經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的關(guān)系。在第4章，我們列出了我們的模型和假設(shè)進(jìn)行測(cè)試，和現(xiàn)在所取得的成果。然后分析結(jié)果在第5章。在第6章我們測(cè)試的產(chǎn)品之間的外國(guó)投資和因果關(guān)系。最后，在第7章，我們提出我們的研究結(jié)論。外國(guó)直接投資的決定因素：理論綜述在本節(jié)中，我們將回顧理論文獻(xiàn)與外國(guó)直接投資的決定因素處理。突出的一個(gè)方面是，這些研究大多強(qiáng)調(diào)各公司本身的因素，并與當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)所特有的跨國(guó)公司有關(guān)，特別是那些與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的相關(guān)企業(yè)自身和本地公司，比較少的重視區(qū)位因素。首先從理論上研究對(duì)外直接投資的決定因素，我們要回歸亞當(dāng)斯密，穆勒和托

48、倫斯的理論，解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題首先就是奧林的理論。據(jù)筆者觀(guān)察，外國(guó)直接投資的動(dòng)機(jī)是高盈利的可能性，主要在發(fā)展中市場(chǎng)，隨著融資利率較低的可能性，投資在東道國(guó)的可能性也就越低。需要其他的決定因素來(lái)克服貿(mào)易障礙，以確保原材料來(lái)源。海默指出在一個(gè)新的傳統(tǒng)將迎來(lái)多國(guó)企業(yè)研究，跨國(guó)公司能夠參與與那些對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)和環(huán)境的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，同時(shí)能更好地了解當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)，這是因?yàn)槟壳耙恍┛鐕?guó)公司所利用的一些優(yōu)勢(shì)，例如：1、 不完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，例如，作為一個(gè)產(chǎn)品的差異化的結(jié)果。2、 在要素市場(chǎng)不完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，例如，獲得專(zhuān)利或?qū)Ｓ兄R(shí)，獲得資金方面的歧視，或技術(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)。3、 內(nèi)部或外部規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì),包括縱向一體化引起的。4、 政府干預(yù)，即對(duì)進(jìn)口的限制。有

49、了這些優(yōu)勢(shì)，跨國(guó)公司更愿意通過(guò)直接供應(yīng)國(guó)外市場(chǎng)的投資方式，而不是通過(guò)出口。在另一個(gè)類(lèi)似的方式，如果本地公司的牌照價(jià)值被確定或者如果技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)化的成本太高了，那么跨國(guó)公司不會(huì)愿意授權(quán)給當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)生產(chǎn)，。金德?tīng)柌裆晕⑿薷暮Ｄ姆治觥２⒉皇怯捎诙嘀匾蛩貨Q定了市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)，而是由于壟斷性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)所控制了市場(chǎng)，使產(chǎn)品主觀(guān)化，它是市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)，壟斷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這將決定該公司生產(chǎn)內(nèi)部的行為?？朔蛩?，還開(kāi)發(fā)了這種結(jié)構(gòu)支配行為類(lèi)似的分析。金融衍生工具將在基本上在由寡頭部門(mén)主導(dǎo)。如果有產(chǎn)品差異化，投資將可能發(fā)生在同一個(gè)地方，即在同一部門(mén)。如果沒(méi)有產(chǎn)品的差異，直接投資將在該行業(yè)中的公司生產(chǎn)鏈的背后形成。對(duì)外直接投資存在進(jìn)一步的相關(guān)貿(mào)易壁

50、壘，或者是一種在外部市場(chǎng)的對(duì)新企業(yè)壁壘，這將成為新公司的障礙。因此，海默，金德?tīng)柌窈涂朔蛩乖谥苯油顿Y的假設(shè)下，由特定的資產(chǎn)來(lái)補(bǔ)償本地公司已經(jīng)成為了外國(guó)公司的傳統(tǒng)。馬庫(kù)森和維納布爾斯開(kāi)發(fā)了沿著相同的路線(xiàn)的模型，通過(guò)外貿(mào)來(lái)比較跨國(guó)公司的重要性。隨著國(guó)家和地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)多國(guó)公司將在收入方面有更多的類(lèi)似的存在，并在各種因素和技術(shù)的相對(duì)分配的條款。第二個(gè)的研究對(duì)外直接投資決定因素的觀(guān)念為基礎(chǔ)交易的成本國(guó)際化。巴克利和卡森是最早開(kāi)發(fā)這一假說(shuō)，開(kāi)始的想法是當(dāng)由不同的公司管理會(huì)使中間產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)不完善，有較高的交易成本。當(dāng)市場(chǎng)中的多國(guó)企業(yè)整合，這些費(fèi)用將減至最低?？鐕?guó)公司在營(yíng)銷(xiāo)方面有專(zhuān)有的資產(chǎn)，設(shè)計(jì)，專(zhuān)利，商標(biāo)，創(chuàng)新能力等，其可能是被轉(zhuǎn)讓無(wú)形資產(chǎn)，或者由于感覺(jué)良好的機(jī)會(huì)成本，甚至因?yàn)樗麄兪欠稚⒌模虼撕茈y出售或出租。內(nèi)部化理論強(qiáng)調(diào)了中介市場(chǎng)和產(chǎn)品的國(guó)際生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的形成。該理