基于數(shù)值模擬的我國地震海嘯危險性分析研究

1、.薈罿芄艿蟻膄膀莈螃羇肆莇裊螀蒞莆蚅羅莁蒞螇袈芇莄袀肄膃莃蕿袆聿莃蟻肂莇莂螄裊芃蒁袆肀腿蒀薆袃肅葿螈肈肁蒈袀羈莀蕆薀膇芆蕆螞羀膂蒆螅膅肈薅袇羈莇薄薇螁芃薃蠆羆膈薂袁蝿膄薁薁肄肀薁蚃袇荿薀螅肅芅蕿袈袆膁蚈薇肁肇蚇蝕襖莆蚆螂聿節(jié)蚅羄袂羋蚅蚄膈膄芁螆羀肀芀衿膆莈艿薈罿芄艿蟻膄膀莈螃羇肆莇裊螀蒞莆蚅羅莁蒞螇袈芇莄袀肄膃莃蕿袆聿莃蟻肂莇莂螄裊芃蒁袆肀腿蒀薆袃肅葿螈肈肁蒈袀羈莀蕆薀膇芆蕆螞羀膂蒆螅膅肈薅袇羈莇薄薇螁芃薃蠆羆膈薂袁蝿膄薁薁肄肀薁蚃袇荿薀螅肅芅蕿袈袆膁蚈薇肁肇蚇蝕襖莆蚆螂聿節(jié)蚅羄袂羋蚅蚄膈膄芁螆羀肀芀衿膆莈艿薈罿芄艿蟻膄膀莈螃羇肆莇裊螀蒞莆蚅羅莁蒞螇袈芇莄袀肄膃莃蕿袆聿莃蟻肂莇莂螄裊芃蒁袆肀腿

2、蒀薆袃肅葿螈肈肁蒈袀羈莀蕆薀膇芆蕆螞羀膂蒆螅膅肈薅袇羈莇薄薇螁芃薃蠆羆膈薂袁蝿膄薁薁肄肀薁蚃袇荿薀螅肅芅蕿袈袆膁蚈薇肁肇蚇蝕襖莆蚆螂聿節(jié)蚅羄袂羋蚅蚄膈膄芁螆羀肀芀衿膆莈艿薈罿芄艿蟻膄膀莈螃羇肆莇裊螀蒞 論文中英文摘要作者姓名：任葉飛論文題目：基于數(shù)值模擬的我國地震海嘯危險性分析研究作者簡介：任葉飛，男，1983年5月出生，2005年9月師從于中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所溫瑞智研究員，于2008年7月獲碩士學(xué)位。中 文 摘 要經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展的中國沿海地區(qū)，可能面臨著潛在海嘯襲擊的危險，我國的渤海、黃海發(fā)生近場海嘯的可能性很小，但東海和南海卻具備海嘯產(chǎn)生的條件，歷史上這兩個區(qū)域也產(chǎn)生過海嘯。因此構(gòu)建我國

3、海嘯防災(zāi)減災(zāi)體系迫在眉睫，海嘯的數(shù)值模擬研究、預(yù)警系統(tǒng)建立、沿海地區(qū)危險性分析工作必須盡快開展。美國、日本等國家已經(jīng)開發(fā)了實(shí)用的海嘯數(shù)值模式、建立了完善的海嘯防災(zāi)減災(zāi)機(jī)制，對海嘯危險性分析方法的研究也做了很多的工作，而我國目前在這些方面尚處于起步階段。本文總結(jié)了全球海嘯災(zāi)害及世界海嘯分布，基于地理信息系統(tǒng)，給出了世界歷史海嘯分布圖，分析了我國的歷史海嘯地震；通過對國內(nèi)外海嘯數(shù)值模擬方法的分析，確定了以有限差分法為本文數(shù)值模擬的方法；探討了3中不同的初始位移場確定方法，開發(fā)了模擬海嘯初始位移場的計(jì)算程序，并選用1960年智利海嘯作為算例，用Coulomb軟件驗(yàn)證所開發(fā)程序計(jì)算的準(zhǔn)確性，判斷其能否

4、作為海嘯初始垂直位移的計(jì)算工具。對越洋海嘯，在同Boussinesq方程進(jìn)行比較之后，選用線性淺水方程作為越洋海嘯傳播的控制方程，并基于有限差分法，運(yùn)用Fortran語言開發(fā)越洋海嘯的數(shù)值傳播模式，選取1960年智利海嘯和2004年蘇門答臘海嘯作為算例驗(yàn)證所開發(fā)模式的準(zhǔn)確性。對近場海嘯，采用有限差分法解近場海嘯的控制方程非線性淺水方程，運(yùn)用Fortran語言開發(fā)近場海嘯的數(shù)值傳播模式，選取2006年12月26日發(fā)生在臺灣南部海域的海嘯作為算例驗(yàn)證所開發(fā)模式的準(zhǔn)確性。并且采用此模式對琉球群島附近海域的假想海嘯進(jìn)行數(shù)值模擬，分析它對中國東部沿海地區(qū)產(chǎn)生的影響。闡述我國進(jìn)行海嘯危險性分析工作的必要性

5、和緊迫性，采用確定性分析方法，從沿岸海底坡度、爬坡時海岸線形狀的角度，評估了我國沿海地區(qū)的地震海嘯危險性程度，并借鑒我國成熟的地震危險性分析方法，給出概率性海嘯危險性分析的定義及開展此工作的思路、方法?；跉v史爬高記錄，給出了我國珠江三角洲地區(qū)的海嘯爬高超越概率和歷史重現(xiàn)期。本文較全面地對海嘯災(zāi)害進(jìn)行了研究，開發(fā)的越洋及近場海嘯數(shù)值傳播模式、確定我國地震海嘯危險性分析工作為構(gòu)建我國海嘯防災(zāi)減災(zāi)體系和進(jìn)行海嘯更深層次的研究提供了技術(shù)支持；為沿海地區(qū)進(jìn)行海洋資源合理利用與開發(fā)、環(huán)境保護(hù)與治理、重大工程設(shè)施的布局與發(fā)展規(guī)劃等提供了重要理論參考。關(guān)鍵詞：海嘯；數(shù)值模擬；數(shù)值模式；有限差分法；危險性分析

6、Study on China Earthquake TsunamiHazard Analysis Based on Numerical SimulationRen YefeiABSTRACTChina coastal areas have the potential tsunami risk. Although Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea have the lower tsunami risk, East Sea and South Sea in China have the tsunamigenic conditions, which also had been suf

7、fered by the tsunami attack. Therefore, it is imminent to construct China tsunami disaster mitigation system. And researches of tsunami numerical simulation, warning system, hazard analysis must be implemented urgently. The tsunami numerical models have been developed precisely and disaster mitigati

8、on systems have been established in many countries, such as in USA and Japan, and lots of works have been done in the tsunami hazard analysis. In China, it is still in the preliminary stage.Firstly, global tsunami distributions are summarized in this paper. Based on GIS, the map of world historic ts

9、unami distribution is given. The program is developed to simulate tsunami initial displacement field. Taken the 1960 Chile tsunami as an example, Coulomb software is deployed for verifying whether it can be as the tool of calculating tsunami initial displacements. Secondly, compared with Boussinesq

10、equations, the linear shallow water equations are selected as governing equation of trans-oceanic tsunami propagation. Based finite difference method, trans-oceanic tsunami numerical model is also developed by FORTRAN languages. Taken 1960 Chile tsunami and 2004 Sumatra tsunami as examples, those ev

11、ents are used to verify this models correctness. Thirdly, the governing equation of near-field tsunami, nonlinear shallow water equations, is solved by finite difference method and the near-field tsunami numerical model is developed by FORTRAN languages. To verify this models correctness, it is take

12、n the tsunami which generated at Taiwan southern sea area in 2006 as an example. By applying this model, scenario tsunami in near Ryukyu Islands is simulated. Then the calculating results are analyzed to confirm how the effects about this tsunami to eastern coastal regions of China. Fourthly, the ne

13、cessity and urgency of China tsunami hazard analysis are described. Utilizing a deterministic method, from views of the slope of coastal seabed and the shape of coastline, the extent of earthquake tsunami hazard in China coastal areas is evaluated. Finally, following the similarity to the seismic ha

14、zard analysis method, the definition and method of probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis are given. Based on historic run-up data, the exceeding probability and return period of run-up in China Pearl River Delta are given.The models of trans-oceanic and near-field tsunami developed by this paper, an

15、d the works of China earthquake tsunami hazard analysis done by this paper can provide technical supports on constructing China tsunami disaster mitigation system and studying tsunami further. Those research results can also provide theoretical references on developing marine resources, protecting m

16、arine environment, and planning great engineering and facility in China coastal regions.Key words: Tsunami; Numerical simulation; Numerical model; Finite difference method; Hazard analysis 莆蚅羅莁蒞螇袈芇莄袀肄膃莃蕿袆聿莃蟻肂莇莂螄裊芃蒁袆肀腿蒀薆袃肅葿螈肈肁蒈袀羈莀蕆薀膇芆蕆螞羀膂蒆螅膅肈薅袇羈莇薄薇螁芃薃蠆羆膈薂袁蝿膄薁薁肄肀薁蚃袇荿薀螅肅芅蕿袈袆膁蚈薇肁肇蚇蝕襖莆蚆螂聿節(jié)蚅羄袂羋蚅蚄膈膄芁螆羀肀芀衿膆莈艿薈罿芄艿蟻膄膀莈螃羇肆莇裊螀蒞莆蚅羅莁蒞螇袈芇莄袀肄膃莃蕿袆聿莃蟻肂