美國(guó)真的衰落了嗎？Is_America27s_declinisim_for_real？

1、vnew declinismv-Americans，especially the intellectuals，think that America is in decline. They have lost the aggressive confidence of the Bush years and the unipolar moment.v-relative declineAmericas declinism in historyv-In the cold war, the Soviet Unionv-in the 80th of last century, Japans growth v

2、-emerging power New Declinism-Iraq war and Afghan war-The rise of China and India-The financial crisisAfghan war(2001-2012)vThe second Afghan war in 2001, on the US-led coalition in October 7, 2001 to al-Qaeda and the Taliban, a war for the United States to 911 retaliation(報(bào)仇), also marks the beginn

3、ing of the war on terror.vthe purpose of the war was arrested Osama bin laden and al-Qaeda members such as punishment for terrorists to support the Taliban. v Iraq war(2003-2010)Iraq war(2003-2010)vThe United States suspected Iraq has Weapons of mass destruction and launched full-scale war.vThere ar

4、e four countries participate in combat, And, finally, the United States has not yet found the legendary weapons of mass destruction.vPresident Obama withdrew all combat troops in August 2010.vThe war lasted 7 years and 5 months.The rise of China and Indiav China, India, Brazil and Russia, （BRICs）vth

5、e rise of economic strength gap with the United States made the number of relatively small countries largely increases. vThe world bank data show that the 1998 world GDP of China was about 3.4% and India was 1.4% .vIn 2008, India was 2.1% , China 7.2% .They have increased nearly doubled or a times m

6、ore. vIt is described in the world after the United States as other countries rise.Subprime Crisis (次貸危機(jī)）vAlso translated into subprime mortgage crisis（次債危機(jī)）.v Subprime is the cause of USA Economy slow down. vSubprime crisis has ended history of many banks in the USA. As of now 22 banks closed becau

7、se of Subprime crisis. vThe United States the subprime crisis from 2006 spring began gradually revealed. vIn August 2007, started across the United States, the European Union and Japan and other major world financial markets. vThe subprime crisis has now become one of the hot issues on international

8、. vAmerican economic strength in the past 20 years has no obvious changes. U.S. GDP of world GDP basic maintain in 25-30%, even in the financial crisis hit in 2008 remained 24% of share. vTheir defense spending accounted for 51% of the worlds defense expenditure, in other words, the American militar

9、y spending more than the sum of the others around the world. Questions to the textv1. What is the difference between the latest global trends report and the one issued four years ago?vThe latest report foreseesa world in which the US plays a prominent role in global events，but the US is seen as one

10、among many global actors. The report issued four years ago had projected continuing US dominance. v2. What does new declinism mean?vIt means that Americans，especially the intellectuals，think that America is in decline. They have lost the aggressive confidence of the Bush years and the unipolar momen

11、t. It is new because there were times in US history when people had similar thoughts. v3. What are the reasons of the new declinism?vThere are three reasons：First，the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have made it clear that US military supremacy does not automatically translate into political victory. S

12、econd，the rise of China and India suggests that Americas days as the worlds largest economy are numbered. vThird, the financial crisis has fed the notion that the US is living beyond its means and that something is badly wrong with the American model.v4. What does William Wohlforth of Dartmouth Coll

13、ege think of the new declinism?vHe pointed out that America may recover from the new declinism just like before and there may be a resurgence of American confidence.v5. Why does the writer think that the new declinism may be more soundly based than the previous ones?vBecause he thinks that China may

14、 pose more challenge to the US than the Soviet Union and Japan since it has a large size and a record of sustained and dynamic economic growth.Americas declinism in historyv-In the cold war, the Soviet Unionv-in the 80th of last century, Japans growth v-emerging power v6. What do you think of Americ

15、as decline? And Chinas rise?v Open vMadeleine Albright who first called the US the indispensable nation. The phrase, coined in those heady days after the collapse of Soviet-led communism, reflected Americas unique capacity to project power just about anywhere in the world.After more than a decade of

16、 relative decline the description still broadly holds. Even as the challenge from rising states obliges the US to abandon the hegemonic ambitions of the early years of George W. Bushs presidency, it remains the only power with real global reach.advantagesvSome of the other advantages were set out re

17、cently in a paper prepared by Uri Dadush of the Carnegie Endowment as part of the US National Intelligence Councils Global Trends 2030 project. vTo take a few: Americas high per capita income reflects high productivity, the single best measure of competitiveness; with 5 per cent of the worlds popula

18、tion, the US accounts for 28 per cent of all patent applications; it has 40 per cent of the worlds top universities; an open, innovative and flexible society leaves it uniquely placed to benefit from technological advances. Oh, and it has a great demographic profile.v美國(guó)的高人均收入反映出高生產(chǎn)率，這是衡量競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的最好單一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；美

19、國(guó)人口占世界5%，專利申請(qǐng)卻占了28%；美國(guó)擁有世界40%的頂尖大學(xué)；開(kāi)放、創(chuàng)新和靈活的社會(huì)，使美國(guó)置身于獨(dú)特的優(yōu)越地位，能夠獲益于技術(shù)進(jìn)步。還有，美國(guó)擁有優(yōu)越的人口結(jié)構(gòu)。vAll this before we get to US military power. Last year China caused quite a stir when it launched its first aircraft carrier minus any jets to sit on its flight deck. America currently operates 11 carrier groups. Next on the list is Italy with two.Words to know vCivilian collegevAmerican model vUS intelligence agencies/establishment v美國(guó)情報(bào)界vReagan-eravUS Security establishment 美國(guó)安全部門vNational Intelligence Council 國(guó)家情報(bào)委員會(huì)vWorld viewvUnipolar moment 單極時(shí)期vThe Vietnam WarvEmerging powersvNew declinismvAmerican