財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略矩陣--財(cái)務(wù)績效評價(jià)體系

1、 財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略矩陣-財(cái)務(wù)績效評價(jià)體系主講人：張友棠 教授Speaker: Prof. Zhang Youtang 目錄n第第1部分部分 財(cái)務(wù)評價(jià)矩陣關(guān)鍵要素分析財(cái)務(wù)評價(jià)矩陣關(guān)鍵要素分析n第第2部分部分 中國企業(yè)集團(tuán)（央企）財(cái)務(wù)綜中國企業(yè)集團(tuán)（央企）財(cái)務(wù)綜n 合評價(jià)規(guī)則合評價(jià)規(guī)則n第第3部分部分 財(cái)務(wù)競爭戰(zhàn)略評價(jià)矩陣研究財(cái)務(wù)競爭戰(zhàn)略評價(jià)矩陣研究 中國上市公司三維財(cái)務(wù)競爭戰(zhàn)略矩陣研究n第第4部分部分 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警評價(jià)矩陣研究財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警評價(jià)矩陣研究n 中國上市公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警評價(jià)矩陣研究報(bào)告 第1部分 財(cái)務(wù)評價(jià)矩陣關(guān)鍵要素分析1.1 國際企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)評價(jià)基礎(chǔ)知識(shí)Basic Knowledge of Mul

2、tinational Corporation Financial Evaluation （1）負(fù)債成本、權(quán)益成本與加權(quán)平均資本成本 Liability Cost, Equity Cost and Weighted Average Cost of Capital負(fù)債： 帶息負(fù)債，亦稱金融性負(fù)債構(gòu)成“負(fù)債成本” 無息負(fù)債，亦稱非金融性負(fù)債Liability: Liability with interest(financial liability)”Liability Cost” Liability without interest(non-financial liability)n負(fù)債成本=帶息負(fù)

3、債的“財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用”（1-所得稅率25%） Liability Cost=”financial expenses” of Liability with interest（1-income tax rate）n權(quán)益成本=使用“所有者權(quán)益資本”的機(jī)會(huì)成本（含股息） Equity Cost=Opportunity Cost of using “Owners Equity Capital”(including dividend)n加權(quán)平均資本成本（WACC）=負(fù)債資本成本率負(fù)債資本占投入資本的百分比+權(quán)益資本成本率權(quán)益資本占投入資本的百分比 WACC=Liability Capital Cost Rati

4、opercentage of Liability Capital in Invested Capital+Equity Capital Cost Ratiopercentage of Equity Capital in Invested Capital（2）營運(yùn)資本需求與凈營運(yùn)資本W(wǎng)orking Capital Requirement(WCR) and Net Working Capital(NWC) n營運(yùn)資本需求=非金融性流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)-非金融性流動(dòng)負(fù)債=（應(yīng)收項(xiàng)目+存貨+預(yù)付項(xiàng)目）-（應(yīng)付項(xiàng)目+預(yù)收項(xiàng)目） Working Capital Requirement=non-financial cu

5、rrent assets-non-financial current liability =(receivables+inventory+prepayment)-(payables+receivable in advance)n凈營運(yùn)資本=全部流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)（含金融性流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)）-全部流動(dòng)負(fù)債（含金融性流動(dòng)負(fù)債） Net Working Capital=all current assets(including financial current assets)-all current liability(including non-financial current liability)（3）留存收益

6、率、股利支付率與內(nèi)部權(quán)益籌資率 Retained Earning Ratio, Dividend Payout Ratio and Internal Equity Financing Ratio凈利潤： 提取法定盈余公積提取公益金提取任意盈余公積支付現(xiàn)金股利現(xiàn)金股利未分配利潤Earning After Tax(EAT): extract legal surplus reserve extract public welfare fundextract arbitrary surplus reservepay cash dividendundistributed profitn留存收益=盈余公積+

7、未分配利潤 Retained Earning= Surplus Reserve+Undistributed Profitn留存收益率=（RE-留存收益）/（EAT-凈利潤） Retained Earning Ratio=（RE-Retained Earning）/（EAT-Net Profit）n股利支付率=（DP-股利支付）/（EAT-凈利潤） Dividend Payout Ratio=（DP-Dividend Payout）/（EAT-Net Profit）n因此 留存收益率+股利支付率=100% Therefore Retained Earning Ratio+ Dividend Pa

8、yout Ratio=100%n內(nèi)部權(quán)益籌資率指留存收益率與股利支付率之間的比例關(guān)系。 Internal Equity Financing Ratio refers to proportional relation between Retained Earning Ratio and Dividend Payout Ratio.（4）EBT、EAT、EBIT與社會(huì)貢獻(xiàn)率 EBT、EAT、EBIT and Social Contribution Ratio EBT-Earning Before Tax,稅前收益類似我國利潤表中的“利潤總額” EBT-Earning Before Taxsimil

9、ar to “total profit” in Chinese income statement EAT-Earning After Tax,稅后收益類似我國利潤表中的“凈利潤” EAT-Earning After Taxsimilar to “net profit” in Chinese income statementEBIT-Earning Before Interest and Tax,息前稅前收益類似我國利潤表中的“利潤總額”加上“財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用” EBIT-Earning Before Interest and Taxsimilar to “total profit” surplus “

10、financial expenses” in Chinese income statementn社會(huì)貢獻(xiàn)率=（EBIT-EAT）/EBIT Social Contribution Ratio=（EBIT-EAT）/EBIT （5）ROE、ROIC與ROA ROE、ROIC and ROAn權(quán)益回報(bào)率ROE(Return on Equity)=EAT/Equityn投入資本回報(bào)率ROIC(Return on Invested Capital)=EBIT(1-T)/Invested Capitaln投入資本=長期資產(chǎn)凈值+現(xiàn)金+WCR Invested Capital=net long-term

11、assets value+Cash+WCRnROA=EAT/Assets（6）啄食順序理論與內(nèi)生資金Pecking Order Theory and Internally Generated Funds n啄食順序理論：使用“留存收益”發(fā)行債券發(fā)行新權(quán)益（配股）銀行貸款 Pecking Order Theory: using “Retained Earning”issuing bondsissuing new equity(share allotment)bank loann內(nèi)生資金=留存收益+折舊費(fèi) Internally Generated Funds=Retained Earning+de

12、preciation cost（7）企業(yè)擴(kuò)張資本需求方程式 Expanding Capital Requirement Equation n擴(kuò)張性資產(chǎn)（即資產(chǎn)）=擴(kuò)張性資本（即資本） Expanding Assets(Assets)=Expanding Capital(Capital)n現(xiàn)金+WCR+固定資產(chǎn)=內(nèi)生資本+外借資本 Cash+WCR+Fixed Assets=Internally Generated Funds +Loan Capitaln而 內(nèi)生資本=留存收益+折舊費(fèi) While Internally Generated Funds=Retained Earning+depre

13、ciation costn因此 外借資本需求=（現(xiàn)金+WCR+固定資產(chǎn)）-（留存收益+折舊費(fèi)） Therefore Loan Capital Requirement=（Cash+WCR+Fixed Assets）-（Retained Earning+depreciation cost）（8）EVA與MVA EVA and MVAnEVA（Economic Value Added）=(ROIC-WACC)Invested Capital nMVA（Market Value Added）=公司占用資本的市場價(jià)值-占用資本總額=（權(quán)益的市場價(jià)值+負(fù)債的市場價(jià)值）-占用資本的價(jià)值 MVA（Market

14、 Value Added）=Market Value of corporation occupied capitalTotal Amount of occupied capital =（Market Value of Equity+ Market Value of Liability）-value of occupied capital（9）規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)與范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)Economies of Scale and Economies of Scopen規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)：指因生產(chǎn)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大而帶來的每件產(chǎn)品固定費(fèi)用的攤薄而帶來的單位成本下降收益上升的現(xiàn)象。 Economies of Scale: Because of

15、 production scale expansion, fixed cost allocated on each product reduces and leads to the phenomenon of unit cost decrease and unit profit increase.n 范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)：指因生產(chǎn)品種增加帶來的市場收入增加而引起的生產(chǎn)成本相對減少的現(xiàn)象。 Economies of Scope: Because of products varieties increase, leads to the phenomenon of market income increase

16、and production cost decrease.（10）成本協(xié)同效應(yīng)、市場協(xié)同效應(yīng)與財(cái)務(wù)協(xié)同效應(yīng)Cost Synergies, Market Synergies and Financial Synergies n成本協(xié)同效應(yīng)（Cost Synergies），企業(yè)集團(tuán)通過并購目標(biāo)公司所帶來的規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)，而導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)有生產(chǎn)成本、行政管理成本、投資成本減少的財(cái)務(wù)協(xié)同效應(yīng)。 Cost Synergies: Through merging target company enterprise group achieve Economies of Scale which leads to the dec

17、rease of current production cost, administrative cost and investment cost. n市場協(xié)同效應(yīng)（Market Synergies），企業(yè)集團(tuán)通過并購目標(biāo)公司所帶來范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)和分銷渠道擴(kuò)展、產(chǎn)品互補(bǔ)而帶來收入增加的財(cái)務(wù)協(xié)同效應(yīng)。 Market Synergies: Through merging target company enterprise group achieve Economies of Scope, distribution channel expansion and product complementarity

18、 which lead to income increase.n財(cái)務(wù)協(xié)同效應(yīng)（Financial Synergies）=成本協(xié)同效應(yīng)+市場協(xié)同效應(yīng) Financial Synergies= Cost Synergies+ Market Synergies（11）營業(yè)周期與現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期Operating Cycle and Cash-to-Cash Cycle n營業(yè)周期=存貨周轉(zhuǎn)期+應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)期=360/(主營業(yè)務(wù)成本/平均存貨)+360/（主營業(yè)務(wù)收入/平均應(yīng)收賬款） Operating Cycle=inventory turnover period+accounts receivable

19、 turnover period=360/(main business cost/average inventory)+360/（main business income/average accounts receivable）n現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期=營業(yè)周期-應(yīng)付款遞延期=營業(yè)周期-360/（主營業(yè)務(wù)收入/平均應(yīng)收賬款） Cash-to-Cash Cycle=Operating Cycle-Payables deferred period=Operating Cycle-360/（main business income/average accounts receivable） （12）融資結(jié)構(gòu)方程

20、式 Financing Structure Equation: WCR=NSF+NLF Net Short-term Financing(NSF), Net Long-term Financing(NLF) ： n短期融資凈值（NSF）=金融性流動(dòng)負(fù)債（短期借款）-金融性流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)（貨幣資金） NSF= financial current liability(Short-term Loan)- financial current assets(Cash)n長期融資凈值（NLF）=（長期負(fù)債+權(quán)益）-長期資產(chǎn)凈值 NLF=(Long-term Liability+Equity)-Net Long-

21、term Assets資產(chǎn)負(fù)債 + 權(quán)益=貨幣資金短期借款存 貨應(yīng)收項(xiàng)目應(yīng)付項(xiàng)目其他長期資產(chǎn)長期投資固定資產(chǎn)無形資產(chǎn)所有者權(quán)益長期借款NSFWCRNLFAssetsLiability + Equity=CashShort-term LoanInventoryReceivablePayablesOther Long-term AssetsLong-term InvestmentFixed AssetsIntangible AssetsOwners EquityLong-term LoanNSFWCRNLFn融資結(jié)構(gòu)方程式： WCR=NSF+NLF Financing Structure Equa

22、tion: WCR=NSF+NLFn長期融資凈值結(jié)構(gòu)比=易變現(xiàn)率=NLF/WCR 易變現(xiàn)率越高，企業(yè)流動(dòng)性越強(qiáng) Liquidity Ratio= NLF/WCR The ratio is larger, the liquidity is better.n短期融資凈值結(jié)構(gòu)比=NSF/WCR 該比值越大，流動(dòng)性越差Net Short-term Financing Structure Ratio= NSF/WCR The ratio is larger, the liquidity is weaker.n內(nèi)生資金： 折舊與攤銷內(nèi)生流動(dòng)資金 留存收益內(nèi)生非流動(dòng)資金nInternally Generat

23、ed Funds: depreciation cost and amortization Internally Generated current funds Retained Earning Internally Generated non-current funds1.2 財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略矩陣-經(jīng)營者財(cái)務(wù)管理績效評價(jià)體系Financial Strategy Matrix- Managers Financial Management Performance Evaluation System（1）杜邦分析體系及其缺陷 無現(xiàn)金流量無資金使用的“機(jī)會(huì)成本”無EVA的理念 Du Pont analysis

24、 system and its deficiency No cash flow No opportunity cost of using funds No idea of EVA（2）中西方EVA測度系統(tǒng)比較 Comparison of Chinese and Western EVA measure system（3）可持續(xù)增長率（SGR）評價(jià)體系（含杜邦分析體系） Sustainable Growth Ratio Evaluation System(including Du Pont analysis system)nSGR（Sustainable Growth Ratio）=留存收益/所有

25、者權(quán)益=留存收益率權(quán)益回報(bào)率=留存收益率銷售利潤率資本周轉(zhuǎn)率財(cái)務(wù)杠桿系數(shù)（1-T） SGR（Sustainable Growth Ratio）=Retained Earning/Owners Equity=Retained Earning RatioReturn on Equity=Retained Earning RatioSales Profit RatioCapital Turnover RatioDegree of Financial Leverage（1-T）（4）財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略矩陣及其財(cái)務(wù)績效定位系統(tǒng) Financial Strategy Matrix and Financial Per

26、formance Positioning System n 財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略矩陣 橫軸=銷售增長率-SGR 縱軸=回報(bào)率差（Return Spread）=ROIC-WACCnFinancial Strategy Matrix Lateral Axis=Sales Growth Ratio(GS)-SGR Longitudinal Axis=Return Spread=ROIC-WACC 現(xiàn)金充裕，創(chuàng)造價(jià)值現(xiàn)金充裕，損失價(jià)值現(xiàn)金短缺，損失價(jià)值現(xiàn)金短缺，創(chuàng)造價(jià)值對策：回購股份企業(yè)擴(kuò)張對策：減少股利融資降低微利產(chǎn)品銷售增長率到SGR水平對策：提高獲利產(chǎn)品市場份額嚴(yán)格控制費(fèi)用優(yōu)化資本結(jié)構(gòu)對策：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制增長現(xiàn)金

27、流入減員增效重組、出售、破產(chǎn)GS-SGRR O I C -WACCCash rich, creating valueCash rich, losing valueCash shortage, losing valueCash shortage, creating valueCountermeasures:repurchase share business expansionCountermeasures:reduce dividend financingreduce low-profit products, sales growth ratio to the level of SGRCount

28、ermeasures:increase profitable productsmarket sharerigidly control expenseoptimize capital structureCountermeasures:risks controlincrease cash flowreduce staff to improve efficiencyrestructuring, sale, bankruptcyGS-SGRROIC-WACCn討論：某企業(yè)集團(tuán)有四個(gè)業(yè)務(wù)單元（SBU）且獨(dú)立核算，編制該企業(yè)集團(tuán)的財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略矩陣，并定位各業(yè)務(wù)單元的財(cái)務(wù)績效。 Discussion: The

29、enterprise group have 4 strategic business unit and independently accounting, compile the enterprise group financial strategy matrix, and position every business unit financial performance.INDEXTranportDiningDrinkFoodGS8%15%7%4%ROIC8%15%8%13%ROE12%20%12%15%WACC10%12%9%11%Dividend Payout Ratio50%40%2

30、5%60%1.3 管理資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表比較分析Managerial Balance Sheet and Standard Balance Sheet （1）標(biāo)準(zhǔn)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表 Standard Balance Sheet 資產(chǎn)負(fù)債與權(quán)益流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)金融性流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)貨幣資金等流動(dòng)負(fù)債金融性流動(dòng)負(fù)債短期借款等非金融性流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)應(yīng)收項(xiàng)目非金融性流動(dòng)負(fù)債應(yīng)付項(xiàng)目存貨預(yù)收項(xiàng)目其他預(yù)付項(xiàng)目長期負(fù)債長期資產(chǎn)長期投資所有者權(quán)益投入資本金實(shí)收資本固定資產(chǎn)資本公積無形資產(chǎn)留存收益盈余公積其他長期資產(chǎn)未分配利潤資產(chǎn)合計(jì)負(fù)債與權(quán)益合計(jì)Assets Liability and Equity Current Assets

31、Financial Current Assets Cash Current Liability Financial Current Liability Short-term loan Non-Financial Current Assets Receivables Non-Financial Current Liability Payables Inventory Receivalbes in advance prepayment Long-term Liability Long-term Assets Long-term Investment Owners Equity Invested C

32、apital Paid up capital Fixed Assets Capital surplus Intangible Assets Retained Earning Surplus Reserve Other long-term assets Undistributed profit Total Assets Total Liability and Equity n營運(yùn)資本需求WCR=非金融性流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)-非金融性流動(dòng)負(fù)債 Working Capital Requirement(WCR)= Non-Financial Current Assets-Non-Financial Current

33、 Liabilityn長期資產(chǎn)凈值=NLA=長期資產(chǎn)原值-長期資產(chǎn)折舊與攤銷 Net Long-term Assets(NLA)=original value of Long-term Assets-depreciation cost and amortization of Long-term Assetsn投入資本IC(投資資本) =貨幣資金+營運(yùn)資本需求+長期資產(chǎn)凈值 Invested Capital(IC)=Cash+ Working Capital Requirement+ Net Long-term Assetsn占用資本FC(融資資本)=短期融資+長期融資（含所有者權(quán)益） Fina

34、ncing Capital(FC)=Short-term Financing+Long-term Financing（Owners Equity）（2）管理資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表 IC=FC Managerial Balance Sheet Invested Capital(IC)Financing Capital(FC)CashShort-term FinancingWorking Capital Requirement Long-term FinancingLong-term LiabilityNet Long-term AssetsOwners EquityIC=Cash+WCR+NLAFC=SF+

35、LFn短期融資凈值=短期融資-現(xiàn)金 n愈小愈好 Net Short-term Financing(NSF)= Short-term Financing- Cash smaller, bettern長期融資凈值=長期融資-長期資產(chǎn)凈值 n愈大愈好 Net Long-term Financing(NLF)=Long-term Financing-Net Long-term Assets(NLA) Larger, betternNSF愈小愈好的路徑選擇減少短期融資，增大現(xiàn)金 Path for NSF to be smallerreduce Short-term Financing, and incr

36、ease cashnNLF愈大愈好的路徑選擇增大長期融資留存收益的比重，減少長期資產(chǎn)凈值充分使用長期資產(chǎn)加大長期資產(chǎn)的折舊和攤銷將閑置的長期資產(chǎn)變賣 Path for NLF to be largerincrease the proportion of retained earning in Long-term Financing, and reduce Net Long-term Assetsuse fully Long-term Assetsincrease depreciation cost and amortization of Long-term Assetssell some id

37、le Long-term Assetsn內(nèi)生資金的增加途徑：WCR的減少長期資產(chǎn)的減少留存收益的增加 Path for Internally Generated Funds to increase: reduce WCRreduce Long-term Assetsincrease retained earningnNSF/WCR愈小愈好 nNLF/WCR愈大愈好 NSF/WCRsmaller, better NLF/WCRlarger, better1.4 融資戰(zhàn)略與融資結(jié)構(gòu)Financing Strategy and Financing Structure（1）融資戰(zhàn)略即指融資結(jié)構(gòu) Fin

38、ancing Strategy is Financing Structure 選擇一種匹配戰(zhàn)略 Choosing a Matching Strategy （2）財(cái)務(wù)融資結(jié)構(gòu)的匹配戰(zhàn)略-財(cái)務(wù)融資協(xié)同戰(zhàn)略 Matching Strategy of Financial Financing Structure- Financial Financing Synergies Strategy第一種：匹配的融資戰(zhàn)略-協(xié)同的融資戰(zhàn)略 Matching Financing Strategy-Synergistic Financing Strategy n投融資結(jié)構(gòu)方程式 Investment and Finan

39、cing Structure Equation 投資資本IC=融資資本FCInvested Capital(IC)=Financing Capital(FC)貨幣資金+WCR+NLA=SF+LFCash+ WCR+NLA=SF+LF呈可持續(xù)增長的匹配的融資戰(zhàn)略 Sustainable Growth Matching Financing StrategyICWCRNLAFCSFLFCash第二種：穩(wěn)健的融資戰(zhàn)略Stable Financing Strategy呈可持續(xù)增長的穩(wěn)健型融資戰(zhàn)略Sustainable Growth Stable Financing StrategyICWCRNLFFCS

40、FLFCash第三種：進(jìn)取型的融資戰(zhàn)略Progressive Financing StrategyICWCRNLFFCSFLFCashn短貸長投：指長期資產(chǎn)投資靠短期貸款來支持 Use Short-term Loan to conduct Long-term Assets investmentn進(jìn)取型融資戰(zhàn)略承受的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：利率變動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)短期貸款展期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)銀行借貸的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Risks of Progressive Financing Strategy: risk of interest rate fluctuationrisk of short-term bank loan time extended

41、risk of bank loans1.5 財(cái)務(wù)績效評價(jià)中的關(guān)鍵因素分析Key Factors Analysis in Financial Performance Evaluation （1）行業(yè)特征因素分析 Industry characteristics factor analysisWCR/CFO,比值愈小愈好；比值從小到大，反映行業(yè)資本有機(jī)構(gòu)成高低；反映資本周轉(zhuǎn)速度的快慢和毛利率的高低 WCR/CFO, larger, better. And the ratio reflects industry capital composition, also reflects the level

42、 of capital turnover speed and gross margin.WCR/CFO=負(fù)數(shù) 表明進(jìn)入該行業(yè)壁壘的高低，大型超市為負(fù)值 if WCR/CFO=negative number. It reflcets the extent of barriers to enter the industry, and the ratio of big super market is negative.（2）管理效率因素分析Managerial Efficiency Factor Analysis “現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期內(nèi)的日均WCR”=WCR/現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期=年末WCR/（360/（存貨周轉(zhuǎn)

43、率+應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率-應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率） “Daily WCR in Cash-to-Cash Cycle”=WCR/Cash-to-Cash Cycle=WCR of the year end/(360/(inventory turnover rate+receivables turnover rate-payables turnover rate) 現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期的日均經(jīng)營活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金凈流入量NCFO=全年NCFO/（360/（存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率+應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率-應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率） “Daily NET Cash Inflow from Operating Activities(NCFO) in Cash-t

44、o-Cash Cycle”=NCFO all the year/(360/(inventory turnover rate+receivables turnover rate-payables turnover rate) 財(cái)務(wù)管理效率判別式=現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期內(nèi)的日均NCFO/現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期內(nèi)的日均WCR 若1，效率高；若1，效率低；當(dāng)WCR為負(fù)數(shù)時(shí)，效率高 Discriminant of Financial Management Efficiency= Daily NCFO in Cash-to-Cash Cycle/ Daily WCR If the result1, high efficien

45、cy;the result1, low efficiency, and when WCR is negative, high efficiency.（3）ROE的各因素比較分析Comparative Analysis of ROE separate factorROE=銷售利潤率總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率財(cái)務(wù)杠桿利潤來源于收入收入來源于可動(dòng)用的總資產(chǎn)總資產(chǎn)來源于融資的權(quán)益資本凈利潤銷售收入總資產(chǎn)銷售收入總資產(chǎn)財(cái)務(wù)杠桿ROE=sales profit ratetotal assets turnover ratefinancial leverage Profit comes from income.Income

46、 comes from disposable assets.Total assets come from financing equity profitsales incometotal assetssales incometotal assetsfinancial leverage ROE=銷售利潤率總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率財(cái)務(wù)杠桿 ROE=sales profit ratetotal assets turnover ratefinancial leveragenROE與銷售利潤率互為正向關(guān)系 ROE and sales profit rate is positive relationship to e

47、ach other. n銷售利潤率與總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率互為反向關(guān)系 Sales profit rate and total assets turnover rate is reverse relationship to each other.nROE與財(cái)務(wù)杠桿互為反向關(guān)系 ROE and financial leverage is reverse relationship to each other.ROE的評價(jià)問題n誘發(fā)經(jīng)營上的短期行為n重收益忽視融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ROE=EAT/EEvaluation problem of ROEninduce short-term activity in operat

48、ionnthe risk of pay importance on income but neglect financing ROE=EAT/E ROIC替代ROEnROIC=EBIT(1-T)/ICnIC=Cash+WCR+NLAusing ROIC to substitute ROEnROIC=EBIT(1-T)/ICnIC=Cash+WCR+NLA（4）財(cái)務(wù)協(xié)同管理效應(yīng)值-實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑 Realizing Path of Effect Value of Financial Synergistic ManagementnCF=增長的現(xiàn)金流量=（現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期內(nèi)的日均CFO-現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期內(nèi)的日均W

49、CR）現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周期 CF=（Daily CFO in Cash-to-Cash Cycle - Daily WCR in Cash-to-Cash Cycle）Cash-to-Cash Cycle/CFNLF WCR財(cái)務(wù)管理協(xié)同效應(yīng)值 /CFEffect Value of Financial Synergistic ManagementNLF WCR財(cái)務(wù)協(xié)同效應(yīng)值的實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑 Realizing Path of Effect Value of Financial Synergistic Management 減少WCR reduce WCR 縮短營業(yè)周期，延長應(yīng)付款周轉(zhuǎn)期 shorten sal

50、es cycle, and extend payables turnover period 減少長期資產(chǎn)凈值加大折舊和攤銷 reduce net long-term assetsincrease depreciation and amortization 增加長期融資當(dāng)長期融資中投入資本金和長期負(fù)債不變時(shí)增加“留存收益” increase long-term financingwhen invested capital and long-term liability in long-term financing dont changeincrease ”retained earning”第第2

51、部分部分 中國企業(yè)集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)綜合評價(jià)規(guī)則中國企業(yè)集團(tuán)財(cái)務(wù)綜合評價(jià)規(guī)則2.1 財(cái)務(wù)管理績效綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)與權(quán)重財(cái)務(wù)管理績效綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)與權(quán)重綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)=22+8=30（1）財(cái)務(wù)績效定量評價(jià)指標(biāo)）財(cái)務(wù)績效定量評價(jià)指標(biāo) 22個(gè)個(gè)n盈利能力狀況盈利能力狀況 6個(gè)個(gè) n其中其中2個(gè)基本指標(biāo)個(gè)基本指標(biāo)4個(gè)修正指標(biāo)個(gè)修正指標(biāo)n資金質(zhì)量狀況資金質(zhì)量狀況 5個(gè)個(gè)n其中其中2個(gè)基本指標(biāo)個(gè)基本指標(biāo)3個(gè)修正指標(biāo)個(gè)修正指標(biāo)n債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況 6個(gè)個(gè)n其中其中2個(gè)基本指標(biāo)個(gè)基本指標(biāo)4個(gè)修正指標(biāo)個(gè)修正指標(biāo)n經(jīng)營增長狀況經(jīng)營增長狀況 5個(gè)個(gè)n其中其中2個(gè)基本指標(biāo)個(gè)基本指標(biāo)3個(gè)修正指標(biāo)個(gè)修正指標(biāo)（2）管理績效

52、定性評價(jià)指標(biāo)）管理績效定性評價(jià)指標(biāo)8個(gè)個(gè)（3）綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)與權(quán)重）綜合評價(jià)指標(biāo)與權(quán)重目標(biāo)層準(zhǔn)則層指標(biāo)層權(quán)重-W說明財(cái)務(wù)綜合指標(biāo)監(jiān)控模型預(yù)警盈利能力（W=34）凈資產(chǎn)收益率10總資產(chǎn)報(bào)酬率7銷售利潤率5盈余現(xiàn)金保障倍數(shù)4.5成本費(fèi)用利潤率4資本收益率3.5 資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量（W=22）總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率5應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率6不良資產(chǎn)比率4.5逆指標(biāo)流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率3.5資產(chǎn)現(xiàn)金回收率3 債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（W=22）資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率6逆指標(biāo)已獲利息倍數(shù)5速動(dòng)比率3現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)負(fù)債比3帶息負(fù)債比2.5逆指標(biāo)或有負(fù)債比2.5逆指標(biāo)經(jīng)營增長（W=22）銷售增長率6資本保值增值率5銷售利潤增長率5總資產(chǎn)增長率3.5技術(shù)投入比率2.5 2.2財(cái)

53、務(wù)績效定量評價(jià)指標(biāo)計(jì)算公式財(cái)務(wù)績效定量評價(jià)指標(biāo)計(jì)算公式n（1）盈利能力狀況-基本指標(biāo)n凈資產(chǎn)收益率（ROE）= 凈利潤 / 平均凈資產(chǎn)n其中：平均凈資產(chǎn) = （年初凈資產(chǎn) + 年終凈資產(chǎn)）/2n總資產(chǎn)報(bào)酬率（ROA）= （利潤總額+利息指出）/ 平均總資產(chǎn)n 其中：平均總資產(chǎn) = （年初總資產(chǎn) + 年終總資產(chǎn)）/2盈利能力狀況-修正指標(biāo)n銷售利潤率 = 主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤 / 主營業(yè)務(wù)收入凈額n盈余現(xiàn)金保障倍數(shù) = 經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量 / （凈利潤 + 少數(shù)股東損益）n成本費(fèi)用利潤率 = 利潤總額 / 成本費(fèi)用總額n 其中：成本費(fèi)用總額 = 主營業(yè)務(wù)成本 +主營業(yè)務(wù)稅金及附加 n+ 營業(yè)費(fèi)用 + 管理費(fèi)用

54、 + 財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用n資本收益率 = 凈利潤 / 平均資本n 其中：平均資本 = （期初期末實(shí)收資本 + 資本公積）/ 2（2）資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量狀況 -基本指標(biāo)n總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）= 主營業(yè)務(wù)收入凈額 / 平均資產(chǎn)總額n應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）= 主營業(yè)務(wù)凈額 / 平均應(yīng)收賬款余額資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量狀況-修正指標(biāo)n不良資產(chǎn)比率 = n資產(chǎn)現(xiàn)金回收率 = 經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金凈流量 / 平均資產(chǎn)總額n流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率 = 主營業(yè)務(wù)收入凈額 / 平均流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)總額（應(yīng)稅未稅應(yīng)攤未攤+ 未處理資產(chǎn)+ 資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備余額的潛虧掛賬損益） / （資產(chǎn)總額 + 資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備余額）（3）債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況 -基本指標(biāo)n資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率 = 負(fù)債總額 / 資產(chǎn)總額n

55、已獲利息倍數(shù) = （利潤總額 + 利息支出）/ 利息支出債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況-修正指標(biāo)n流動(dòng)比率 = 流動(dòng)資產(chǎn) / 流動(dòng)負(fù)債n 其中：流動(dòng)資產(chǎn) = 流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)存貨n現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)負(fù)債比率 = 經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量 / 流動(dòng)負(fù)債n帶息負(fù)債比率 = （短期借款 + 一年內(nèi)到期的長期負(fù)債 + 長期借款n+應(yīng)付債券 + 應(yīng)付利息）/ 負(fù)債總額n或有負(fù)債比率 = 或有負(fù)債余額 / （所有者權(quán)益 + 少數(shù)股東權(quán)益）n其中：或有負(fù)債余額 = 以貼現(xiàn)承擔(dān)匯票 + 擔(dān)保余額 + 貼現(xiàn)與擔(dān)保外的被訴訟專項(xiàng)金額 + 其它或有負(fù)債（4）經(jīng)營增長狀況 -基本指標(biāo)n銷售增長率=(本年主營業(yè)務(wù)收入 上年主營業(yè)務(wù)收入)/上年主營業(yè)務(wù)收入n資本保值增

56、值率= 年末固有資本及收益 / 年初固有資本及收益經(jīng)營增長狀況-修正指標(biāo)n銷售利潤增長率 =（本年主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤上年主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤）/上年主營業(yè)務(wù)n利潤 n總資產(chǎn)增長率 = （年末總資產(chǎn) 年初總資產(chǎn)）/ 年初總資產(chǎn)n技術(shù)投入比率 = 本年科技支出合計(jì) / 主營業(yè)務(wù)收入凈額2.3管理績效定性評價(jià)指標(biāo)管理績效定性評價(jià)指標(biāo)n（1）戰(zhàn)略管理評價(jià) 細(xì)化項(xiàng)目評價(jià)，見原文件n（2）發(fā)展創(chuàng)新評價(jià)n（3）經(jīng)營決策評價(jià)n（4）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制評價(jià)n（5）基礎(chǔ)管理評價(jià)n（6）人力資源評價(jià)n（7）行業(yè)影響評價(jià)n（8）社會(huì)貢獻(xiàn)評價(jià)2.4 評價(jià)方法選擇評價(jià)方法選擇 n（1）計(jì)分方法n-財(cái)務(wù)績效定量評價(jià)指標(biāo)- 功效系數(shù)法n-管理績效定

57、性評價(jià)指標(biāo)- 綜合分析判別法 （2）標(biāo)準(zhǔn)系數(shù)（定性與定量相同）n檔次優(yōu)（A）-標(biāo)準(zhǔn)系數(shù)范圍=1n良（B）-標(biāo)準(zhǔn)系數(shù)范圍=0.8n平均/中（C ）-標(biāo)準(zhǔn)系數(shù)范圍=0.6n低（D）-標(biāo)準(zhǔn)系數(shù)范圍=0.4n差（E）-標(biāo)準(zhǔn)系數(shù)范圍=0.2第第3部分部分 財(cái)務(wù)競爭戰(zhàn)略評價(jià)矩陣研究財(cái)務(wù)競爭戰(zhàn)略評價(jià)矩陣研究 中國上市公司三維財(cái)務(wù)競爭戰(zhàn)略矩陣研究3.1 財(cái)務(wù)先導(dǎo)指標(biāo)矩陣財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境適應(yīng)競爭力矩陣評價(jià)n3.1.1 縱軸 投入資本價(jià)值創(chuàng)造率EVAIC計(jì)算步驟： EVANOPATICWACC（1）NOPAT（稅后凈營業(yè)利潤）凈利潤少數(shù)股東損益財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用（1所得稅率）（2）IC FC平均所有者權(quán)益平均少數(shù)股東權(quán)益平均負(fù)

58、債合計(jì)平均在建工程平均無息流動(dòng)負(fù)債 平均無息流動(dòng)負(fù)債平均流動(dòng)負(fù)債平均短期借款平均一年內(nèi)到期長期負(fù)債（3）WACC 5.5%（央企均值） KD 利息成本=財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用 KE 權(quán)益成本=支付股利(1-)DCEDEWACCKTKD ED En3.1.2 橫軸財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境適應(yīng)率=X1*X2*X31 X4投入資本價(jià)值創(chuàng)造率EVAIC X5EVA 2X 投 資 環(huán) 境 適 應(yīng) 度本 期 在 建 工 程 本 期 購 建 固 定 資 產(chǎn) 、 無 形 資 產(chǎn) 和 其 他 長 期 資 產(chǎn) 支 付 的 現(xiàn) 金上 期 在 建 工 程 上 期 購 建 固 定 資 產(chǎn) 、 無 形 資 產(chǎn) 和 其 他 長 期 資 產(chǎn) 支 付

59、的 現(xiàn) 金1X 本期經(jīng)營活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流入量 本期營業(yè)收入市場環(huán)境適應(yīng)度上期經(jīng)營活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流入量 上期營業(yè)收入3X 本期長期負(fù)債本期所有者權(quán)益融資環(huán)境適應(yīng)度上期長期負(fù)債上期所有者權(quán)益3.1.3 矩陣評價(jià)B區(qū)D區(qū)C區(qū)A區(qū)創(chuàng)造價(jià)值環(huán)境不適創(chuàng)造價(jià)值環(huán)境適應(yīng)損失價(jià)值環(huán)境適應(yīng)財(cái)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境適應(yīng)率投入資本價(jià)值創(chuàng)造率損失價(jià)值環(huán)境不適預(yù)警定位系統(tǒng)3.2 財(cái)務(wù)同步指標(biāo)矩陣財(cái)務(wù)資源配置競爭力矩陣評價(jià)n3.2.1 縱軸 投入資本自由現(xiàn)金率FCFICn3.2.2 橫軸81X財(cái) 務(wù) 資 源 優(yōu) 配 率計(jì)算步驟：（1）X6年現(xiàn)金循環(huán)周轉(zhuǎn)率（Cash-to-cash Cycle Rate）年應(yīng)收款周轉(zhuǎn)率年存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率年應(yīng)付款周轉(zhuǎn)率nA

60、=年應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）=年?duì)I業(yè)收入/應(yīng)收賬款平均余額nB=年存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）=年主營業(yè)務(wù)成本/存貨平均余額nC=年應(yīng)付款周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）=年主營業(yè)務(wù)成本/應(yīng)付賬款平均余額7XCAB（2）現(xiàn)金延期支付比= （4）X9投入資本自由現(xiàn)金率=FCF/IC（5）X10FCF經(jīng)營活動(dòng)現(xiàn)金流量凈額-（購建固定資產(chǎn)、無形資產(chǎn)和其他長期資產(chǎn)支付的現(xiàn)金-處置固定資產(chǎn)、無形資產(chǎn)和其他長期資產(chǎn)收回的現(xiàn)金凈額）-WCRWCR=非金融流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)-非金融流動(dòng)負(fù)債68776XXXXX本 期本 期（ 3）資 源 配 置 度上 期上 期3.2.3 矩陣評價(jià) B區(qū)D區(qū)C區(qū)A區(qū)資源劣配現(xiàn)金充裕資源優(yōu)配現(xiàn)金充裕資源優(yōu)配現(xiàn)金短缺財(cái)務(wù)資源優(yōu)配