糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測論文神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的糧食產(chǎn)量論文：基于小波廣義回歸神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測模型

1、論文發(fā)表專家一顧中國學術(shù)期刊洌wwv/糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測論文神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的糧食產(chǎn)量論文：基于小波廣義回歸神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測模型摘要：將小波分析與廣義回歸神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(grnn)相融合，構(gòu)建了一種小波廣義回歸神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(wgrnn)模型。該模型應(yīng)用于我國糧食總產(chǎn)量預(yù)測，其預(yù)測結(jié)果在精度上均優(yōu)于單一的grnn預(yù)測模型和gm(l,l)灰色預(yù)測模型，既具有神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)非線性逼近能力和自學習能力的特性，又具有小波在時、頻兩域表征局部特征的功能，可為糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測的定量化和智能化提供一條新途徑。關(guān)鍵詞：糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測；小波分析；gm(l,1)模型；廣義回歸神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)predictionmodeloffoodyieldusing

2、waveletgeneralizedregressionneuralnetworkyupingfu,luyuming,weiliping,liangyijie,suxiaobo,konglingzi,lanzongbao(agricultureandtechnologyinformationresearchinstitute,guangxiacademyofv/agricuturaencenanning530007,guangxl,chlna)abstracts:waveletgeneralizedregressionneuralnetwork(wgrnn)modelwasconstructe

3、dusingwaveletanalysisandgeneralizedregressionneuralnetwork(grnn).thispredictionmodelhadbetterprecisiononpredictingtotalfoodyieldduring20072008ifcomparedtogrnnandgreymodelgm(l,l),anditdidnotonlyhavetheadvantagesofnonlinearmappingapproximationabilityandconvenienceofcalculationofneuralnetwork,butalsoth

4、efunctionofshowingpartialcharacteristicsontimeandfrequencyofwaveletanalysi論文發(fā)表專家一顧中國學術(shù)期刊洌wwv/s.itwouldprovideanewmethodonquantificationandintelligentializationofpredictingfoodyield.keywords:predictionoffoodyield;waveletanalysis;zedregressionneuralnetwogreymodelgm(l,l);generalirk我國是一個農(nóng)業(yè)大國，糧食安全是整個國家安全系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分，是直接關(guān)系到我國國民經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展和社會穩(wěn)定的重大問題。因此，準確預(yù)測糧食產(chǎn)量，科學地進行農(nóng)業(yè)決策，對保證我國糧食安全具有重要意義。目前，糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測模型較多，常用于糧食產(chǎn)量預(yù)測的模型主要有時間序列模型（指數(shù)平滑模型、灰色預(yù)測模型及基于馬爾可夫鏈的預(yù)測模型）、回歸模型（線性回歸模型和雙對數(shù)模型）和人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型1,2。近年來，隨著智能技術(shù)的發(fā)展，小波分析、粗糙集理論、人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)等新技術(shù)與有關(guān)模型相結(jié)