曼昆宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)武大19章

1、A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論Chapter 19Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Open Economies 開放經(jīng)濟(jì)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)nAn open economy is one that interacts freely with other economies around the world. 開放經(jīng)濟(jì)是一個(gè)與世界其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)行開放經(jīng)濟(jì)是一個(gè)與世界其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)行自由交易的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。自由交易

2、的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Key Macroeconomic Variables in an Open EconomyuThe important macroeconomic variables of an open economy include:unet exports unet capital outflowunominal exchange ratesureal exchange rates Harcourt, Inc. items and derived it

3、ems copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.開放經(jīng)濟(jì)中關(guān)鍵的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量開放經(jīng)濟(jì)中關(guān)鍵的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量u一個(gè)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)中重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變一個(gè)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)中重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量包括量包括:u凈出口凈出口 u凈資本外流凈資本外流u名義匯率名義匯率u實(shí)際匯率實(shí)際匯率 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Basic Assumptions of a Macroeconomic Model of an Open Economy開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的基本假設(shè)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的

4、基本假設(shè)uThe model takes the economys GDP as given. 模型把模型把GDP作為既定的。作為既定的。uThe model takes the economys price level as given. 模型把經(jīng)濟(jì)的物價(jià)水平作為既定的。模型把經(jīng)濟(jì)的物價(jià)水平作為既定的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LOANABLE FUNDS AND FOR FOREIGN-CURRENCY EXCHANGEnThe M

5、arket for Loanable FundsS = I + NCOAt the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of investment and net capital outflows.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.可貸資金市場(chǎng)與外匯市場(chǎng)的供給與需求可貸資金市場(chǎng)與外匯市場(chǎng)的供給與需求n可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金

6、市場(chǎng)S = I + NCO在均衡利率時(shí)，人們想儲(chǔ)蓄的量正好與合在均衡利率時(shí)，人們想儲(chǔ)蓄的量正好與合意的國(guó)內(nèi)投資和凈資本外流量平衡。意的國(guó)內(nèi)投資和凈資本外流量平衡。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Loanable Funds可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金市場(chǎng)uThe supply of loanable funds comes from national saving (S). 可貸資金的供給來(lái)源于國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄（可貸資金的供給來(lái)源于國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄（S）。）。uThe deman

7、d for loanable funds comes from domestic investment (I) and net capital outflow (NCO). 對(duì)可貸資金的需求來(lái)源于國(guó)內(nèi)投資（對(duì)可貸資金的需求來(lái)源于國(guó)內(nèi)投資（I）與凈資與凈資本外流（本外流（NCO）。）。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Loanable FundsuThe supply and demand for loanable funds depend on the re

8、al interest rate. uA higher real interest rate encourages people to save and raises the quantity of loanable funds supplied.uThe interest rate adjusts to bring the supply and demand for loanable funds into balance.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金市場(chǎng)u可貸

9、資金的供給和需求取決于實(shí)際利可貸資金的供給和需求取決于實(shí)際利率。率。 u更高的實(shí)際利率鼓勵(lì)人們儲(chǔ)蓄，提高更高的實(shí)際利率鼓勵(lì)人們儲(chǔ)蓄，提高可貸資金的供給量?？少J資金的供給量。u利率調(diào)整直至可貸資金供求平衡。利率調(diào)整直至可貸資金供求平衡。Figure 1 The Market for Loanable FundsQuantity ofLoanable FundsRealInterestRateSupply of loanable funds(from national saving)Demand for loanablefunds (for domesticinvestment and netca

10、pital outflow)EquilibriumquantityEquilibriumreal interestrateHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.圖圖1. 可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金量可貸資金量實(shí)際利率實(shí)際利率可貸資金需求可貸資金需求 ( 來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)投資來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)投資與凈資本外流與凈資本外流 ) 可貸資金供給可貸資金供給 （來(lái)自國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄（來(lái)自國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄)均衡數(shù)量均衡數(shù)量 均衡的均衡的 實(shí)際利率實(shí)際利率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items

11、copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Loanable Funds可貸資金量可貸資金量At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net capital outflow.在均衡利率時(shí)，人們想儲(chǔ)蓄的量正好與合在均衡利率時(shí)，人們想儲(chǔ)蓄的量正好與合意的國(guó)內(nèi)投資和凈資本外流量平衡。意的國(guó)內(nèi)投資和凈資本外流量平衡。Harc

12、ourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeuThe two sides of the foreign-currency exchange market are represented by NCO and NX.uNCO represents the imbalance between the purchases and sales of capital assets.uNX represents the imbalance

13、 between exports and imports of goods and services.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)uNCO和和NX代表外匯市場(chǎng)的雙方代表外匯市場(chǎng)的雙方。uNCO 代表國(guó)外資本資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買與出售之代表國(guó)外資本資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買與出售之間的不平衡。間的不平衡。uNX 代表物品與勞務(wù)出口和進(jìn)口之間的代表物品與勞務(wù)出口和進(jìn)口之間的不平衡。不平衡。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by

14、 Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeuIn the market for foreign-currency exchange, U.S. dollars are traded for foreign currencies.uFor an economy as a whole, NCO and NX must balance each other out, or:NCO = NXHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.外匯

15、市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)u在外匯市場(chǎng)上，美元和其他貨幣進(jìn)行在外匯市場(chǎng)上，美元和其他貨幣進(jìn)行交易。交易。u從經(jīng)濟(jì)總體上看，從經(jīng)濟(jì)總體上看， NCO 和和 NX 必然必然平衡，即平衡，即NCO = NXHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)The price that balances the supply and demand for foreign-currency is the real exchange

16、rate.實(shí)際匯率實(shí)際匯率使外匯市場(chǎng)供需平衡的使外匯市場(chǎng)供需平衡的價(jià)格。價(jià)格。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeuThe demand curve for foreign currency is downward sloping because a higher exchange rate makes domestic goods more expensive.uThe supply curve is ver

17、tical because the quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow is unrelated to the real exchange rate.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)u需求曲線是下傾的，這是因?yàn)檩^高的需求曲線是下傾的，這是因?yàn)檩^高的匯率使國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的物品更昂貴。匯率使國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)的物品更昂貴。u供給曲線是垂直的，這是因?yàn)閮糍Y本供給曲線是垂直的，這是因?yàn)閮糍Y本外流的美元供給量并不取決于實(shí)際匯外

18、流的美元供給量并不取決于實(shí)際匯率。率。Figure 2 The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeQuantity of Dollars Exchangedinto Foreign CurrencyRealExchangeRateSupply of dollars(from net capital outflow)Demand for dollars(for net exports)EquilibriumquantityEquilibriumreal exchangerateHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items co

19、pyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.圖圖2. 外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng) 換為外國(guó)通貨換為外國(guó)通貨 的美元量的美元量實(shí)際匯率實(shí)際匯率美元供給美元供給 (來(lái)自凈資本外流來(lái)自凈資本外流) 美元需求美元需求(對(duì)凈出口對(duì)凈出口) 均衡量均衡量均衡實(shí)際匯率均衡實(shí)際匯率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeuThe real exchange rate adjusts to balance the supply

20、 and demand for dollars.uAt the equilibrium real exchange rate, the demand for dollars to buy net exports exactly balances the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency to buy assets abroad.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)u實(shí)際匯率的調(diào)整使美元的供求平衡。

21、實(shí)際匯率的調(diào)整使美元的供求平衡。u在均衡的實(shí)際匯率時(shí)，購(gòu)買凈出口的在均衡的實(shí)際匯率時(shí)，購(gòu)買凈出口的美元需求正好與為購(gòu)買國(guó)外資產(chǎn)而交美元需求正好與為購(gòu)買國(guó)外資產(chǎn)而交換外國(guó)通貨的美元供給相平衡。換外國(guó)通貨的美元供給相平衡。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.2、外匯市場(chǎng)：外匯供給、需求與實(shí)際匯率、外匯市場(chǎng)：外匯供給、需求與實(shí)際匯率2.1 理解要點(diǎn)：對(duì)比商品市場(chǎng)理解要點(diǎn)：對(duì)比商品市場(chǎng) 商品的供求商品的供求 對(duì)商品的供給就是對(duì)貨幣的需求；對(duì)商品的需求就是對(duì)對(duì)商品的供給就是對(duì)貨幣的需求；對(duì)商品的需求

22、就是對(duì)貨幣的供給貨幣的供給 商品市場(chǎng)上的交易發(fā)生在商品和貨幣之間商品市場(chǎng)上的交易發(fā)生在商品和貨幣之間 商品與貨幣之間的交易比率為價(jià)格商品與貨幣之間的交易比率為價(jià)格 在外匯市場(chǎng)上在外匯市場(chǎng)上 對(duì)外匯的供給就是對(duì)本幣的需求；對(duì)外匯的需求就是對(duì)對(duì)外匯的供給就是對(duì)本幣的需求；對(duì)外匯的需求就是對(duì)本幣的供給本幣的供給 外匯市場(chǎng)上的交易發(fā)生在本幣和外幣之間；更準(zhǔn)確地講外匯市場(chǎng)上的交易發(fā)生在本幣和外幣之間；更準(zhǔn)確地講，發(fā)生在不同貨幣之間，發(fā)生在不同貨幣之間 外匯之間的交易比率為名義匯率外匯之間的交易比率為名義匯率 本章討論實(shí)際匯率本章討論實(shí)際匯率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived

23、 items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Equilibrium in the Open EconomyuIn the market for loanable funds, supply comes from national saving and demand comes from domestic investment and net capital outflow.uIn the market for foreign-currency exchange, supply comes from net capital outflow and demand

24、comes from net exports.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡u在可貸資金市場(chǎng)上，供給來(lái)自國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄在可貸資金市場(chǎng)上，供給來(lái)自國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄，需求來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)投資和凈資本外流。，需求來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)投資和凈資本外流。u在外匯市場(chǎng)上，供給來(lái)自凈資本外流，在外匯市場(chǎng)上，供給來(lái)自凈資本外流，需求來(lái)自凈出口。需求來(lái)自凈出口。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Equ

25、ilibrium in the Open Economy開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡unet capital outflow links the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market. 凈資本外流把可貸資金市場(chǎng)與匯率市場(chǎng)聯(lián)系起來(lái)凈資本外流把可貸資金市場(chǎng)與匯率市場(chǎng)聯(lián)系起來(lái)uThe key determinant of net capital outflow is the real interest rate. 凈資本外流的關(guān)鍵決定因素是實(shí)際利率。凈資本外流的關(guān)鍵決定因素是實(shí)際利率。Figure 3 How N

26、et Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate0Net CapitalOutflowNet capital outflowis negative.Net capital outflowis positive.RealInterestRateHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.圖圖3. 凈資本外流如何取決于利率凈資本外流如何取決于利率0凈資本外流凈資本外流實(shí)際利率實(shí)際利率凈資本外流為正凈資本外流為正凈資本外流為負(fù)凈資本外流為負(fù)Harcourt,

27、 Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 外匯市場(chǎng)均衡模型外匯市場(chǎng)均衡模型 前提：站在美國(guó)的立場(chǎng)上，以美元（美國(guó)的本幣）前提：站在美國(guó)的立場(chǎng)上，以美元（美國(guó)的本幣）為外匯為外匯美元供給美元供給來(lái)自外匯需求來(lái)自外匯需求來(lái)自國(guó)外凈投資來(lái)自國(guó)外凈投資美元需求美元需求來(lái)自外匯供給來(lái)自外匯供給來(lái)自凈出口來(lái)自凈出口美元供給取決于國(guó)際實(shí)際利率差美元供給取決于國(guó)際實(shí)際利率差 本國(guó)實(shí)際利率下降，導(dǎo)致資本外流，因此外匯市場(chǎng)上的美本國(guó)實(shí)際利率下降，導(dǎo)致資本外流，因此外匯市場(chǎng)上的美元供給增加元供給增加美元需求取決于實(shí)際匯率美元需求取決

28、于實(shí)際匯率 實(shí)際匯率上升（在這里是美元升值），美國(guó)商品變得昂貴實(shí)際匯率上升（在這里是美元升值），美國(guó)商品變得昂貴，凈出口減少，對(duì)美元需求減少；反之亦相反。，凈出口減少，對(duì)美元需求減少；反之亦相反。均衡時(shí)，國(guó)外凈投資凈出口均衡時(shí)，國(guó)外凈投資凈出口如果購(gòu)買力平價(jià)成立，則凈出口（即對(duì)美元需求）為如果購(gòu)買力平價(jià)成立，則凈出口（即對(duì)美元需求）為水平線；但購(gòu)買力平價(jià)是特例。水平線；但購(gòu)買力平價(jià)是特例。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Equilibrium in the Open EconomyuP

29、rices in the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market adjust simultaneously to balance supply and demand in these two markets.uAs they do, they determine the macroeconomic variables of national saving, domestic investment, net capital outflow, and net exports.Harcourt, Inc. ite

30、ms and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡u可貸資金市場(chǎng)和外匯市場(chǎng)價(jià)格同時(shí)調(diào)可貸資金市場(chǎng)和外匯市場(chǎng)價(jià)格同時(shí)調(diào)整，使這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的供求平衡。整，使這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的供求平衡。u當(dāng)這兩個(gè)價(jià)格調(diào)整時(shí)，就決定了國(guó)民當(dāng)這兩個(gè)價(jià)格調(diào)整時(shí)，就決定了國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄、國(guó)內(nèi)投資、凈資本外流和凈出儲(chǔ)蓄、國(guó)內(nèi)投資、凈資本外流和凈出口這些宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量?？谶@些宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.可貸資金市場(chǎng)與外匯市場(chǎng)的聯(lián)系可貸

31、資金市場(chǎng)與外匯市場(chǎng)的聯(lián)系 在可貸資金市場(chǎng)，均衡時(shí)有在可貸資金市場(chǎng)，均衡時(shí)有 S = I + NCO 在外匯市場(chǎng)，均衡時(shí)有在外匯市場(chǎng)，均衡時(shí)有NCO = NX 兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)同時(shí)均衡時(shí)有兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)同時(shí)均衡時(shí)有S = I + NX 兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的均衡說(shuō)明了物品流轉(zhuǎn)和價(jià)值流轉(zhuǎn)之間的兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的均衡說(shuō)明了物品流轉(zhuǎn)和價(jià)值流轉(zhuǎn)之間的聯(lián)系聯(lián)系Figure 4 The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy(a) The Market for Loanable Funds(b) Net Capital OutflowNet capitaloutflow, NCORealInterestRat

32、eRealInterestRate(c) The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeQuantity ofDollarsQuantity ofLoanable FundsNet CapitalOutflowRealExchangeRateSupplySupplyDemandDemandrrEHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.(a) 可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金市場(chǎng)(b) 凈資本外流凈資本外流(c) 外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)可貸資金量需求需求供給供給美元量需求需求供給

33、供給凈資本外流凈資本外流凈資本外流實(shí)際匯率實(shí)際利率實(shí)際利率r1E1r1圖圖4. 開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際均衡開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際均衡Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.How Changes in Policies and Events Affect an Open EconomyuThe magnitude and variation in important macroeconomic variables depend on the following:uGovernment budget defic

34、itsuTrade policiesuPolitical and economic stabilityHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.政策和事件如何影響開放經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和事件如何影響開放經(jīng)濟(jì)u重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的大小及其重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的大小及其變動(dòng)取決于：變動(dòng)取決于：u政府預(yù)算赤字政府預(yù)算赤字u貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)易政策u政治與經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定性政治與經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定性Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc

35、.Government Budget DeficitsnIn an open economy, government budget deficits . . . reduce the supply of loanable funds,drive up the interest rate,crowd out domestic investment,cause net capital outflow to fall.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.政府預(yù)算赤字政府預(yù)算赤字u在一個(gè)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)中

36、，政府預(yù)算赤字在一個(gè)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)中，政府預(yù)算赤字. . . 減少了可貸資金的供給減少了可貸資金的供給,使利率上升使利率上升,擠出了國(guó)內(nèi)投資擠出了國(guó)內(nèi)投資,導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)投資下降。導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)投資下降。Figure 5 The Effects of Government Budget Deficit(a) The Market for Loanable Funds(b) Net Capital OutflowRealInterestRateRealInterestRate(c) The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeQuantity ofDollarsQuantity

37、 ofLoanable FundsNet CapitalOutflowRealExchangeRateDemandDemandr2NCOSSSSr2BE1rrA1. A budget deficit reducesthe supply of loanable funds . . . 2. . . . which increasesthe real interestrate . . . 4. The decreasein net capitaloutflow reducesthe supply of dollarsto be exchangedinto foreigncurrency . . .

38、 5. . . . which causes thereal exchange rate toappreciate.3. . . . which inturn reducesnet capitaloutflow.E2Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.r2r2E2 1. 預(yù)算赤字減少了可預(yù)算赤字減少了可貸資金的供給貸資金的供給.S2 B(a) 可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金市場(chǎng)(b) 凈資本外流凈資本外流(c) 外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)可貸資金量需求需求S1美元量需求需求S1S2凈資本外流NCO5. 引起實(shí)

39、際匯率升值。引起實(shí)際匯率升值。實(shí)際匯率實(shí)際利率實(shí)際利率3. 這又減這又減少了凈資本外少了凈資本外流。流。4. 凈資本外流減少凈資本外流減少，使用于交換外國(guó)，使用于交換外國(guó)通貨的美元供給減通貨的美元供給減少少 r1AE1r1圖圖5. 政府預(yù)算赤字的影響政府預(yù)算赤字的影響2. 這就提高了這就提高了實(shí)際利率實(shí)際利率.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Government Budget Deficits nEffect of Budget Deficits on the Loanable Fun

40、ds MarketA government budget deficit reduces national saving, which . . . shifts the supply curve for loanable funds to the left, which . . . raises interest rates.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.政府預(yù)算赤字政府預(yù)算赤字 n預(yù)算赤字對(duì)可貸資金市場(chǎng)的影響預(yù)算赤字對(duì)可貸資金市場(chǎng)的影響政府預(yù)算赤字減少了國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄，這政府預(yù)算赤字減少

41、了國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄，這. . . 使可貸資金供給曲線向左移動(dòng)使可貸資金供給曲線向左移動(dòng), 這這 . . . 提高了利率。提高了利率。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Government Budget Deficits政府預(yù)算赤字政府預(yù)算赤字 nEffect of Budget Deficits on net capital outflow 預(yù)算赤字對(duì)凈資本外流的影響預(yù)算赤字對(duì)凈資本外流的影響Higher interest rates reduce net capital outflow. 更高

42、的利率減少了凈資本外流。更高的利率減少了凈資本外流。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, I capital outflownEffect on the Foreign-Currency Exchange MarketA decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency.This causes the real exchange rate to app

43、reciate.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.政府預(yù)算赤字政府預(yù)算赤字 n對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的影響對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的影響凈資本外流的下降減少了換成其他通貨的凈資本外流的下降減少了換成其他通貨的美元的供給量。美元的供給量。這導(dǎo)致實(shí)際匯率上升這導(dǎo)致實(shí)際匯率上升。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Trade PolicynA trade policy is a government policy

44、that directly influences the quantity of goods and services that a country imports or exports. Tariff: A tax on an imported good.Import quota: A limit on the quantity of a good produced abroad and sold domestically.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)易政策n貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)

45、易政策直接影響一國(guó)進(jìn)口或出直接影響一國(guó)進(jìn)口或出口物品與勞務(wù)的政府政策?？谖锲放c勞務(wù)的政府政策。 關(guān)稅關(guān)稅對(duì)進(jìn)口物品征收的稅。對(duì)進(jìn)口物品征收的稅。進(jìn)口限額進(jìn)口限額 對(duì)在國(guó)外生產(chǎn)而在國(guó)內(nèi)銷對(duì)在國(guó)外生產(chǎn)而在國(guó)內(nèi)銷售的物品的限制量。售的物品的限制量。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Trade PolicyuBecause they do not change national saving or domestic investment, trade policies do not affect

46、 the trade balance.uFor a given level of national saving and domestic investment, the real exchange rate adjusts to keep the trade balance the same.uTrade policies have a greater effect on microeconomic than on macroeconomic markets.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt,

47、Inc.貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)易政策u因?yàn)橘Q(mào)易政策并不改變國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄或國(guó)內(nèi)因?yàn)橘Q(mào)易政策并不改變國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄或國(guó)內(nèi)投資，所以它們并不影響貿(mào)易余額。投資，所以它們并不影響貿(mào)易余額。u給定國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄和國(guó)內(nèi)投資水平，實(shí)際匯率給定國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄和國(guó)內(nèi)投資水平，實(shí)際匯率調(diào)整使貿(mào)易余額保持不變。調(diào)整使貿(mào)易余額保持不變。u貿(mào)易政策對(duì)微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響大于對(duì)宏觀貿(mào)易政策對(duì)微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響大于對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Trade Policy nEffect of an Import QuotaBec

48、ause foreigners need dollars to buy U.S. net exports, there is an increased demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency. This leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)易政策 n進(jìn)口限額的影響進(jìn)口限額的影響因?yàn)橥鈬?guó)人需要美元來(lái)購(gòu)買美國(guó)的凈出口

49、因?yàn)橥鈬?guó)人需要美元來(lái)購(gòu)買美國(guó)的凈出口，所以在外匯市場(chǎng)上美元的需求增加了。，所以在外匯市場(chǎng)上美元的需求增加了。 這導(dǎo)致實(shí)際匯率上升。這導(dǎo)致實(shí)際匯率上升。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Trade Policy nEffect of an Import QuotaThere is no change in the interest rate because nothing happens in the loanable funds market.There will be no chang

50、e in net exports. There is no change in net capital outflow even though an import quota reduces imports.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)易政策n進(jìn)口限額的影響進(jìn)口限額的影響因?yàn)榭少J資金市場(chǎng)沒(méi)有發(fā)生任何變動(dòng)，所因?yàn)榭少J資金市場(chǎng)沒(méi)有發(fā)生任何變動(dòng)，所以利率也沒(méi)有變化。以利率也沒(méi)有變化。凈出口沒(méi)有任何變動(dòng)。凈出口沒(méi)有任何變動(dòng)。 即使進(jìn)口限額減少了進(jìn)口量，但凈資本外即使進(jìn)口限額減少了

51、進(jìn)口量，但凈資本外流沒(méi)有變化。流沒(méi)有變化。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Trade Policy nEffect of an Import QuotaAn appreciation of the dollar in the foreign exchange market encourages imports and discourages exports.This offsets the initial increase in net exports due to import qu

52、ota.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)易政策n進(jìn)口限額的影響進(jìn)口限額的影響外匯市場(chǎng)上美元升值鼓勵(lì)進(jìn)口，抑制出口。外匯市場(chǎng)上美元升值鼓勵(lì)進(jìn)口，抑制出口。這種變動(dòng)的作用抵消了由于進(jìn)口限額最初增加這種變動(dòng)的作用抵消了由于進(jìn)口限額最初增加的凈出口。的凈出口。Figure 6 The Effects of an Import Quota(a) The Market for Loanable Funds(b) Net Capital OutflowRealInterestRateRea

53、lInterestRate(c) The Market for Foreign-Currency ExchangeQuantity ofDollarsQuantity ofLoanable FundsNet CapitalOutflowRealExchangeRaterrSupplySupplyDemandNCODD3. Net exports,however, remainthe same.2. . . . and causes thereal exchange rate to appreciate.EE21. An importquota increasesthe demand fordo

54、llars . . . Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.1. 進(jìn)口限額增加了進(jìn)口限額增加了美元需求美元需求 (a) 可貸資金市場(chǎng)可貸資金市場(chǎng)(b) 凈資本外流凈資本外流(c) 外匯市場(chǎng)外匯市場(chǎng)可貸資金量需求需求S1美元量需求需求供給供給凈資本外流NCO實(shí)際匯率實(shí)際利率實(shí)際利率r1E1r1圖圖6. 進(jìn)口限額的影響進(jìn)口限額的影響E2 2. 并引起實(shí)際匯并引起實(shí)際匯率升值。率升值。3. 但凈出口但凈出口仍然不變?nèi)匀徊蛔僅arcourt, Inc. items and derived item

55、s copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Trade Policy 貿(mào)易政策貿(mào)易政策nEffect of an Import Quota 進(jìn)口限額的影響進(jìn)口限額的影響Trade policies do not affect the trade balance. 貿(mào)易政策并不影響貿(mào)易余額。貿(mào)易政策并不影響貿(mào)易余額。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Political Instability and Capital Flight政治不穩(wěn)定與資本外流政治不穩(wěn)定與資本外

56、流Capital flight is a large and sudden movement of funds out of a country, usually due to political instability.資本外流資本外流經(jīng)常由于政治不穩(wěn)定帶經(jīng)常由于政治不穩(wěn)定帶來(lái)的資金大量而突然地從一國(guó)流出。來(lái)的資金大量而突然地從一國(guó)流出。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Political Instability and Capital FlightuCapital flight ha

57、s its largest impact on the country from which the capital is fleeing, but it also affects other countries.uIf investors become concerned about the safety of their investments, capital can quickly leave an economy.uInterest rates increase and the domestic currency depreciates.Harcourt, Inc. items an

58、d derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.政治不穩(wěn)定與資本外流政治不穩(wěn)定與資本外流u資本外流對(duì)資本流出國(guó)影響最大，但它資本外流對(duì)資本流出國(guó)影響最大，但它也影響其他國(guó)家。也影響其他國(guó)家。u如果投資者變得關(guān)心他們的投資安全如果投資者變得關(guān)心他們的投資安全 ，資本就會(huì)迅速地逃離一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。資本就會(huì)迅速地逃離一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體。u導(dǎo)致利率上升，國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣貶值。導(dǎo)致利率上升，國(guó)內(nèi)貨幣貶值。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Political Instab

59、ility in Mexico and Capital FlightuWhen investors around the world observed political problems in Mexico in 1994, they sold some of their Mexican assets and used the proceeds to buy assets of other countries.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.墨西哥的政治不穩(wěn)定與資本外流墨西哥的政治不

60、穩(wěn)定與資本外流u當(dāng)全球的投資者觀察到當(dāng)全球的投資者觀察到1994年的墨西年的墨西哥的政治問(wèn)題時(shí)，他們賣掉手中的墨哥的政治問(wèn)題時(shí)，他們賣掉手中的墨西哥資產(chǎn)，利用這些資金購(gòu)買其他國(guó)西哥資產(chǎn)，利用這些資金購(gòu)買其他國(guó)家的資產(chǎn)。家的資產(chǎn)。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Political Instability in Mexico and Capital FlightuThis increased Mexican net capital outflow.uThe demand for loana