羅賓斯管理學決策ppt課件

1、規(guī)劃與決策Planning & Decision MakingChapter3-2Definition-決策Decision -Making a choice from two or more alternatives. 在兩個或多個選項中作出選擇Low level to high level managers make decisions. All organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and organization they work for.2Universality of decision makin

2、gManagers at all levels make decisions，but particularly important to managersDecision making is part of all four managerial functions-Planning, Organizing, Leading, and ControllingMaking decisions is the essence of the management.Managers are called decision makers3How do you make decisions?入學考試面試題：

3、為何考上海大學？考進了大學他預備做什么？未來的職業(yè)想象是什么？他們的回答：上海大學很美麗、很有名我要仔細學習，考證書？4決策常見的問題片面短見感性即刻滿足前后矛盾短期決策與長期目的不一致等等5How do managers make decisions?管理者如何作出賢明的決議？6Contents Eight Steps in the Decision-Making ProcessThree Ways Managers Make DecisionsDecisions and Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making Styles and how bia

4、ses affect decision making Challenges for decision makers (add.) Effective Decision Making TechniquesSituations of decision makingChapter37What are the general factors affecting managers decision making?影響決策的要素ProcessApproachesTypes of decisionsConditionsManagersObjectivesErrors and Biases81. The De

5、cision-Making Process決策過程9Exhibit 71The Decision-Making ProcessP179The Decision-Making Process includes Eight steps from identifying a problem to evaluating the decision effectiveness出處：羅賓斯 13e10決策過程Source:RobertN.LussierConcepts, Applications, Skill Development4e112. The Ways Managers Making Decisi

6、ons 管理者的決策方法122.1 Rational Decision Making approach 理性決策D Assumptions of RationalityManagers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions to decision makers: TheyAre perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.明確目的，徹底邏輯，完全理性Have carefully defined the problem

7、and identified all viable alternatives. 明晰界定問題和全部選項Have a clear and specific goal 明確詳細目的Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests. 滿足組織最大利益132.2 Bounded Rationality DM Approach 有限理性決策 D Bounded Rationality有限理性Decision m

8、aking thats rational, but are limited (bounded) by an individuals ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisfiedchoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximi

9、ze the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Ex: To find a job14 Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality, so they satisfice15后期決策受前期決策影響B(tài)ounded Rationality有限理性Bounded rational decision making influenced byOrganizatio

10、ns culture, internal politics, power considerations, and Escalation of commitment承諾晉級: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. Ex: Challenger space shuttle disaster162.3 Intuitive Decision-making approach 直覺決策The Role of IntuitionIntuitive decisio

11、n making 直覺決策Is making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. 17Exhibit 76What is Intuition? Five Different Aspects of IntuitionSource: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making, Academy of Management Executive, Oct

12、ober 1999, pp. 9199.P184潛認識決策情感決策認知決策閱歷決策價值品德決策直覺183 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions 決策類型與決策條件193.1 Types of Problems & Decisions問題類型與決策類型Structured ProblemsProgrammed DecisionUnstructured Problems Nonprogrammed Decision203.1 Types of DecisionsStructured Problems and Programmed Dec

13、isionsStructured Problems 構造性問題Definition: Straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems 直接、熟習并容易界定的問題Involve goals that clear.Are familiar (have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Example: a server in a restaurant spill

14、s a drink on a customers coatProgrammed Decisions 程序化決策Definition: A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Example: The manager offers to have the coat cleaned at restaurants expense21(1) Programmed decision 程序化決策Policy政策A general guideline for making a decision about a struc

15、tured problem.Procedure 程序A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.Rule 規(guī)那么An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.22Example- Policy, Procedure, and RulePolicy政策Accept all customer-returned merc

16、handise.Procedure程序Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.Rules 規(guī)那么Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.23Problems and Decisions (contd)Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Decisions Unstructured Problems 構造不良問題Definitio

17、n: Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions 非程序化決策Definition: A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a custom-made solution 獨一的和不可反復的決策。Decisions that generate unique respo

18、nses.24Exhibit 77Programmed versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsP187253.2 Decision-Making Conditions 決策制定條件Certainty 確定性Definition: A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Example: where to deposit moneyRisk 風險性Definition:A sit

19、uation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Example: next pageP18726Decision-Making ConditionsUncertainty 不確定性Definition: A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable pr

20、obability estimates availableLimited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition.27Decision-Making ConditionsAn Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty ConditionMaximax: the optimistic managers

21、 choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.28Exhibit 79Payoff MatrixExample: Which Strategy Will U Choose?Suppose you are a sales manager of VISAP189羅賓斯 管理學29Exhibit 79Payoff Mat

22、rixMaxmax choiceMaxmin choiceP18930Exhibit 710Regret MatrixMinimax choiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=31ReviewDecision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition利益能夠性的最大化抉擇 Maximax: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff (Think about the l

23、argest Possible gain)利益最低能夠性的最大化決策 Maximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff (Think about the lowest Possible gain)懊悔程度最小化決策 Minimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret. (Think about minimizing the Possible regret)324. Decision-Making Styles 決策者的風格線性有邏輯的非線性直

24、覺的集體參與的決策個人獨斷的決策當機立斷式沉思熟慮式恰到益處式334.1 Linear-Non linear thinking style profile Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking styleA decision style characterized by a persons preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinkingA decision style chara

25、cterized by a persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches直覺.34Exhibit 711Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsP191354.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristics 啟

26、示法Using “rules of thumb to simplify decision making.1Overconfidence Bias 自傲偏見Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.2Immediate Gratification Bias 即時滿足偏見Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.36Decision-Making Biases and

27、Errors (contd)3Anchoring Effect 錨定效應Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.4Selective Perception Bias 選擇認識偏見Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.5Confirmation Bias 證明偏見Seeking out information that reaffirms past cho

28、ices and discounting contradictory information.37Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)6Framing Bias 框架效應偏見Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.7Availability Bias 有效性眼前偏向Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.8Rep

29、resentation Bias 典型性偏見Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.9Randomness Bias 隨機性偏見Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.38Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)10Sunk Costs Errors 沉沒本錢錯誤Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.11Self-Serving Bias 自利性偏向Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.12Hindsight Bias 后見偏向Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (